New Mexico Politics with Joe Monahan

White & Bush
If he was floating in a sea of campaign cash, ABQ GOP congressional contender Darren White might put up some TV ads for the final week of Primary '08, but favored as he is with high name ID and under-financed opposition from ABQ State Senator Joe Carraro, the Bernalillo County sheriff has opted to be the only major NM Congress hopeful to stay dark. He reported $383,000 in cash at the end of April, an ample but not overwhelming number. Now most of that money will be spent on the general election. Today President Bush will give White a free-media boost with Republicans as he appears at a Los Ranchos noontime fund-raising reception. The White campaign hopes to pick up $300,000. But money is proving to be much tighter for the R's whose popularity this cycle is as low as a worm's belly. For White, the option of saving cash for the main event is one he probably could afford to take.

GOP US Senate candidate Heather Wilson probably isn't too happy that White will not be on the airwaves, perhaps boosting turnout in the R primary in Bernalillo County. The ABQ congresswoman's only hope of staving off rival Steve Pearce is a large landslide here. Having a popular R like White on the air urging votes for him could translate into votes for her. But while Wilson and White were joined at the hip at the March GOP pre-primary nominating convention, that now seems long ago and far away.

For White, today is all about taking the money and running. By having Bush here days before the primary, donors can be hit for a $2300 contribution for the primary as well as another $2300 for the November contest. Don't look for Bush, sporting historically low approval ratings to make another appearance in ABQ before his presidency ends, although the pros won't rule out a visit to southern NM where Bush's support is not yet the kiss of death. Dems will do their best today to keep Bush and White on the defensive, organizing a protest of the visit.

LAST CHANCE?

Tonight may be the last best chance for Heather Wilson to make up lost ground on Steve Pearce. Behind and scrambling, the ABQ congresswoman will debate the southern NM US Rep at 9 p.m. tonight on KOAT-TV. If she can force Pearce to drop the ball, she will also get good play in the next day's ABQ Journal which is cosponsoring the one hour event. But Pearce, who made an error or two in the early going and had a poor performance in the Los Alamos debate, has since proven more disciplined, holding Heather to a draw in a recent Roswell square-off. Look for him to eat the clock and hang tough.

ONE LAST ONE

There is another Senate debate slated for Friday night at 7 p.m. which is sponsored by the NM Broadcasters Association and will run on several TV stations, including KOB, KRQE and KNME. It will also be simulcast on a number of radio stations. However, it may come too late to have dramatic impact. Friday night debate watching is not a prime NM pastime, and most voters will have voted or have their minds made up. Still, a giant mistake might have the campaigns trying to produce a last-minute TV spot that they could try to get on air by Sunday night. Rather than such dramatics, we expect both contenders to avoid the big error.

WIDOWS AND ORPHANS

Wilson is trying to stir things up by accusing Pearce of threatening widows and orphans with cuts in the Social Security program. The emotional charge is screaming across the airwaves and into the mailboxes as Wilson tries to make up what campaign polling is showing to be a healthy Pearce lead statewide. Nothing scares the seniors like the thought of their check not coming, so Pearce, as insiders anticipated, responded to Wilson's charge with a new spot of his own.

"After ten years in office all Heather Wilson can do is try to tear me down with false ads, desperate attacks and a negative campaign. She even accused me of wanting to take Social Security away from widows and orphans. We can do better and we deserve better...I've always protected Social Security and I always will...

WHOSE STUPID?

How frustrated is Heather Wilson that country bumpkin Pearce is setting up to end her political career next Tuesday night? Pretty upset. She actually called the three term congressman "stupid" for an amendment he sponsored recently in the US House. You gotta hand it to Pearce for putting up with that crap. Most foes would be throwing Heather's Oxford school books at her and telling her to head back to New Hampshire. But when you're headed for a win, the skin tends to get very thick indeed.

PREZ TRAIL
Obama in Cruces
It's a deluge of local and national politics. Obama and McCain were in the state on Memorial Day. Here's the recap of the McCain ABQ visit, video of the Arizona senator and our analysis for KRQE-TV of the NM Prez campaign. He drew about 1,000. And here's a complete report plus video visit to on Obama'sLas Cruces before an invited audience of 200.

Michelle Obama is in ABQ and Santa Fe today for two fund-raisers, but the presidential campaigns will have to forgive us for not getting overly excited. Right now, we have bigger fish to fry in this historic New Mexico election year.

NORTHERN ACTION

No TV debate for the Northern Dem congressional candidates, but KNME-TV did finally get an interview with each of the candidates. You can see them here.

Benny Shendo, who has been such a thorn in the side of Ben Ray Lujan is the only Native American candidate seeking the northern Dem US House nod, but Lujan is getting his share of Indian support. Pojoaque Pueblo endorsed Lujan saying. "He's worked hard his whole life, and we're proud of his accomplishments."

The ABQ Journal poll released Sunday showed Lujan with a six point lead over Don Wiviott. Campaign polling is confirming that lead.

TINSLEY IN FRONT
Ed Tinsley
Ed Tinsley appears to be making steady gains in the crowded and competitive race for the GOP nomination for the southern NM congressional seat, with Aubrey Dunn receding and former Hobbs Mayor Monty Newman on the rise. That's the word we are getting from campaign polling and Alligator analysis. Tinsley is now nuking both Dunn and Newman on ABQ TV--a move insiders said they expected because Tinsley's mail attacks did not seem enough to get the job done. Tinsley slams Dunn for only being a Republican "for seven months" and says Newman raised taxes 19 times as mayor, even though many of those were fee increases.

Rancher Dunn put up hard-hitting negative TV on Tinsley and Newman but has not put himself on camera, unlike Tinsley and Newman. Dunn is now up with a spot aimed solely at polling frontrunner Tinsley. Newman is getting nearly $1 million in independent support from the National Association of Realtors, but it is Newman's own campaign spot emphasizing family values that appears to be moving him, say the insiders. Is that Monty in a church pew? Maybe not, but they are making you think he is in one.

Newman's problem is time. He may not have started soon enough to overtake Tinsley. Dunn's media is not keeping him in the game and there are very few innings left. If the election were held today it would likely be Ed's. But it's not being held today.

DARK HORSE HARRY

Blog reader Diane Albert gives us her take on the 3rd CD contest:

Don Wiviott's money and Lujan's daddy (NM House Speaker Ben Lujan) have diverted attention away from a candidate who has tons of experience as a public servant; who is highly educated and intelligent; who has the temperament to work with both D's and R's, and who has deep roots in NM. It is a shame that Harry Montoya has not been able to raise the money needed to get the word out about his stellar accomplishments...

STILL ROCKIN' ROSWELL

We're heavy on the Roswell beat this primary because of the first-ever GOP challenge to State Senator "Lightning" Rod Adair and another stiff challenge to House minority whip Dan Foley. Today we've posted (click on images) some of the gloves-off literature making the rounds in Chaves, Lincoln and Otero counties. The hit piece on Adair comes from his foe, former two term Chaves County Commissioner Rory McMinn. The other piece comes from Foley who is using the support of the Chaves County GOP chairman to fend off retired FBI agent Dennis Kintigh who has mounted the fiercest-ever challenge to Foley.

The controversial Republican lawmakers and their races were profiled over the weekend in a front-pager in the ABQ Journal. If either of them should lose, it could be the beginning of a remake of the strife-torn GOP in SE NM and would have also have impact on the direction of the state GOP. Roswell oilman Mark Murphy has been among those leading the charge for reformers McMinn and Kintigh, helping financially. The Roswell Daily Record has also endorsed the pair. Murphy has been subjected to emotional and personal attacks for his stand, but has stood his ground as these races reach a fever pitch in their final days,.

DOUBLE DIP

Michael Padilla, challenging ABQ Dem State Senator Linda Lopez, boasted to us of his endorsement from the NEA-NM teachers union. And now so is Linda. It turns out both candidates have been endorsed by the NEA-NM. A spokesman for the group tells us a vote by Lopez in favor of a tuition tax credit for private schools raised their eyebrows, but in the end they chose to endorse both her and Padilla because of their overall support for education. Meanwhile, Lopez won the endorsement of the main ABQ teachers union--the American Federation of Teachers. Padilla notes that he picked up the backing of the Firefighters Union #244, representing Bernalillo County and City of Albuquerque firefighters.

This endorsement back and forth stuff just won't quit. Let's move on....

OUR ELECTION COVERAGE

Please join us for our 20th year of election coverage on KANW 89.1 FM Monday, June 2 when we'll have a live, one hour pre-game show at 5 p.m. Our guest experts will run down the key races and make some fun predictions. On Election Night join me and top NM lobbyist Scott Scanland as we bring you wall-to-wall election coverage as has been our tradition these many years. GOP State Rep. Larry Larranaga, Dem State Sen. Jerry Ortiz y Pino, former Dem party chairman John Wertheim, former Bernalillo County Commissioner Lenton Malry and Dem strategist Heather Brewer will be on hand to offer insight. We'll also have exclusive early results from selected precincts so we can give you the early heads-up on the big races,

Election Night coverage is made possible on KANW by grants from Ladera Golf, Serrano and Sons--Construction and Bill Campbell Agency--Realtors.

E-mail your campaign news and comments and let us know if they are for publication.

(c)NM POLITICS WITH JOE MONAHAN 2008
Not for reproduction without permission of the author

Lujan & Heinrich
It's still too tight for complete comfort, but Ben Ray Lujan, the established frontrunner in the six way race for the Northern Dem US House nomination, should be able to bring this race home June 3. The ABQ Journal survey conducted May 20-22 shows Lujan garnering 29% of the Dem vote and Santa Fe developer Don Wiviott, who has pumped $1.340 million of his own cash into the contest, getting 23%. Margin of error for the poll is 4.5%.

One danger point for Lujan is the undecided. A significant one third of the electorate remains up in the air, many of them Anglo voters on the east side in communities like Portales and Clovis. If many of them were to fall in line behind Wiviott the race could tighten considerably. However, from here it appears many of them will not be voting at all, not satisfied with Lujan nor Wiviott. Many of them are probably not comfortable voting for Hispanic Lujan and think Anglo Wiviott is too liberal. The other four candidates divide the remaining vote. Jon Adams gets 2%; Harry Montoya garners 7%; Rudy Martin 1% and Benny Shendo 5%.

Some of the poll of 500 registered Dems was conducted during the now infamous gay-baiting incident in which Lujan foe Benny Shendo accused Lujan of being a closeted gay, a charge the Lujan campaign denied. Pollster Brian Sanderoff said the charge appeared to have no impact.

HEINRICH MANEUVERING

As anticipated, the Journal poll released Sunday morning shows Martin Heinrich with a healthy lead over three competitors for the ABQ Dem congressional nod. He gets 34% of likely primary voters. Coming in second is former NM Secretary of State Rebecca Vigil-Giron who captures 23%; Michelle Lujan Grisham came in with 10% and ABQ attorney Robert Pidcock was fourth with 4%. A large 29% were undecided. Margin of error is 5%.

The race here may be for second place. Grisham has made a TV buy that will keep her in front of voters. Vigil-Giron has not. There are indications that Grisham's TV is having the desired impact, and political insiders say second is now within her sights. And first? There's always a chance, but time is her biggest enemy.

As for Heinrich, a former ABQ city councilor who has been in the race nearly a year, he has run the only fully-organized and fully-financed campaign. He is a darling of the left, but has moved in recent weeks to also appeal to working class Democrats. Heinrich has also received important support from the Democratic Congressional Campaign Committee. Heinrich's problem is evidenced by the large undecided. No candidate in this race has overly excited the electorate. That will have to change if the Dems are to take over the seat after a 40 year losing streak to the R's.

Heinrich's likely opponent in the fall contest is GOP Bernalillo County Sheriff Darren White. President Bush will hold a fund-raiser for White in Los Ranchos on Tuesday. White is opposed for the GOP nod by State Senator Joe Carraro.

(c)NM POLITICS WITH JOE MONAHAN 2008
Not for reproduction without permission of the author

They've absorbed the shock waves. Now the Alligators and insiders have moved on to coldly calculating the impact of the accusation that Northern Dem congressional candidate Ben Ray Lujan is a closeted gay. The charge was made by erratic rival Benny Shendo. Most of those asked said the development was so bizarre that they could not venture what impact, if any, it would have at the voting booths, but the several who did said they did not see it as a deal breaker for the 35 year old Public Regulation Commissioner and son of NM House Speaker Ben Lujan.

The optimistic scenario was painted by longtime NM syndicated political columnist Jay Miller who also said the incident is being treated with some levity.

The possibility Lujan may be gay could hurt him further with people who probably weren't going to vote for him. His supporters in the north no longer are shocked much by that sort of thing. I've heard people around here say that they are relieved Lujan might be gay. They were worried a good looking, single casino dealer in NM and NV was probably a playboy.

Lujan has denied being gay through his spokespeople, but since he must authorize what they say, the statement is being taken as coming directly from the candidate.

Others speculated that the North's many Hispanic Catholics might be sensitive to the accusation, but with little more than whispers offered as evidence, it's hard to see the issue gaining traction.

The prospect of an endorsement of Lujan's candidacy by Big Bill has become more important following the gay-baiting incident. Richardson said this week he would make an endorsement in the race, and it is widely expected it will be Lujan. That news was welcome before Shendo's
shake-up. Now it is anxiously anticipated.

WHAT HOLIDAY?

The Memorial Day weekend holiday will be nearly nonexistent for the politicos. Sunday the ABQ Journal will come with its polling in the Dem races for the ABQ and Northern congressional seats. On Monday the two major contenders for the presidency--Obama and McCain will make same day visits to the Land of Enchantment. Obama will make a splash in Las Cruces and environs, using the El Paso TV market. McCain will keep it in ABQ. On Tuesday President Bush comes to ABQ for a fund-raiser for likely GOP ABQ congressional nominee Darren White and Obama's wife Michelle will attend fund-raisers in ABQ and Santa Fe.

DEMS AND DARREN

Speaking of the Prez's visit, the state Dems are not ignoring it. They want to hang the unpopular president around Darren White's neck and they made a stab at it with this news shout-out:

White...criticized President Bush...during a call-in radio show Thursday. When a caller asked if he would vote for Bush again, White dodged by stating that Bush was no longer on the ballot. Instead, White criticized both Congress and the Administration, saying, "Bush is somewhat responsible for the division in Washington." While White wants to distance himself from Bush...he apparently has no problem using the Bush name to take money from Bush's...friends. What White neglected to mention was Bush's visit Tuesday...

But Bob Clark of 770 KKOB-AM, who interviewed White said:

"I asked Darren about Bush's visit at the very beginning of the show and we discussed it for a few minutes. So it's clear whomever wrote the release for the Dems didn't hear the beginning of the show or just left it out on purpose.

MORE TUBE

Back to the Northern Dem race where Santa Fe County Commissioner Harry Montoya doesn't have a lot of campaign money, but enough to put up some cable TV ads. You can see one here. When you see Harry, ask him how many shots it took him to make that basket.

NEEDLING NED

NM columnist Ned Cantwell, as usual, has some fun at our expense. From his column:

Blogger Joe Monahan reports that the "political intelligentsia" pegs Pearce as positioning himself for a 5-10 point victory., although the upcoming televised debates could change that. Maybe so. The only "political intelligentsia" I know is the guy at the corner bar. And he's not buying--either my beer or the nasty tv ads.

OK. Intelligentsia is out. The Alligators are back in.

MILLER'S MUSINGS

Let's go back to columnist Jay Miller of "Inside the Capital" fame. I asked The 70 year old political junkie for a couple of primary predictions.

NORTHERN DEM US HOUSE--Ben Ray Lujan will pull it out. Don Wiviott should get the Anglo vote in the corners of the state, but he'll lose it in the north. Business and community leaders don't like his practices. Greenies say he is not a green developer; he is an opportunist who thought he could take advantage of infill provisions in the Santa Fe city master plan. Up north, Ben will get Hispanics, union members, greens and probably the big GLBT vote.

ABQ US HOUSE--Republican Darren White and Democrat Martin Heinrich easily.

Says Miller: "The nice thing about being retired and 70 is that I don't have to worry much about anything I say coming back to haunt me."

NOT GOING TO PLAY

GOP Southern NM congressional hopeful Monty Newman, under pressure to join the negative fray that has broken out for the nomination, says he won't be a guest at that party:

The attacks from the Aubrey Dunn and Ed Tinsley campaigns have completely distorted the facts surrounding my record as the elected mayor of Hobbs and as a city commissioner...Both candidates have chosen to attack my service by taking quotes out of context. That may be good strategy if you are going to attack. It is simply impossible to explain sound municipal fiscal policy and the responsibilities of being a city elected official in a 30-second sound bite.

ABSENTEE BLUES

If you are voting absentee in the June primary, blog reader Homer Johnson has some advice:

I requested an absentee ballot and, after filling it in, realized I had no idea how much postage it required. There's nothing on the instruction sheet or the envelope , other than something like 'appropriate postage required.' So I called the BernCo Clerk's office, and was told that proper postage is one dollar, and that 'we've been getting lots of calls like this.' None of the campaigns, to my knowledge, have done anything to get the word out either.

Clerk Maggie Toulose Oliver responds:

I did a press conference prior to Absentee starting and let folks know what the cost of postage to return the absentee ballot would be. Regardless, we have an agreement with the post office to return any absentee ballots to us whether they have the full amount of postage attached or not. All the ballots will make it back to our office if they are sent in time to get there by 7 PM on June 3.

THE BOTTOM LINES

Dem Bernalillo County District Attorney Kari Brandenburg has a free ride for her party's nomination, but not one in the fall election where she will face R Lisa Torraco. Brandenburg had a completely free ride in '04--no primary or general foes--but now she is in full campaign mode saying: "I am moving toward a clean sweep of law enforcement union endorsements. So far I have the endorsement from the Bernalillo County Deputy Sheriff's Association, the Chicano Police Officers' Association and the Albuquerque Police Officer' Association."

Brandenburg is keenly aware that in the past the R's have shown they can compete for the Bernalillo DA slot. Think Steve Schiff and Bob Schwartz...

Thanks for tuning in. Keep us in your loop via e-mail.

(c)NM POLITICS WITH JOE MONAHAN 2008
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Pearce & Wilson
The nearly eight month old campaign for the GOP US Senate nomination--yes, its been that long--is nearing its climatic conclusion with Heather Wilson moving to a new attack plan and Steve Pearce unveiling nine--that's right--nine TV spots that will air from now until primary day June 3.

Wilson trails in all polls--public and private. Each day--each precious news cycle--must be put to maximum use to avoid an ignominious conclusion to her 10 year old congressional career. To that end, she came with an ad that packs more emotion than previous efforts and will likely provoke a response from frontrunner Pearce. Here's the video and here's the copy that could mean do or die for Wilson's chance at a desk on the floor of the US Senate.

Cut Social Security for widows and orphans? Unbelievable. But Steve Pearce said he'd do it. Pearce said cut them off, no benefits. Pearce also voted to cut $169 million from New Mexico’s share of hospital funding…And against cracking down on health care fraud and abuse. Steve Pearce: Cut Social Security. Cut New Mexico hospitals. Wrong for New Mexico. With that record, he can’t win in November.

The ad is based on a 2000 statement Pearce made while then seeking the GOP US Senate nod. Pearce's team says he never advocated cutting Social Security for widows and orphans, that he said benefits were in danger of being cut if something wasn't done to shore up the program.

Be that as it may, even hardhearted R's will take a second glance at a charge that widows and orphans are being thrown to the wolves. The public awaits his response.

As for who can win in November, that's a slippery slope for Wilson. Her negative ratings among the general electorate approach 50%. Besides, are Republican voters going to be thinking about November as they cast their votes in June? It seems more likely they are thinking about who the most conservative candidate is, which goes to the central flaw of the Wilson candidacy.

The ball seems to be firmly in Pearce's court. If he avoids any major missteps, he should take the prize. But like Hillary Clinton to Barack Obama, Heather Wilson continues to cast a shadow.

ON THE TUBE

We interviewed with KOB-TV's Stuart Dyson about the latest developments in the GOP Senate race. You can see that here.

UDALL DEBUTS

Soon-to-be Dem US Senate nominee Tom Udall is moving to shore up some weak spots as he debuts two primary TV ads today, one sixty seconds, the other thirty. Udall, who has been savaged for voting for funding cuts at Los Alamos Labs, is said in one ad to have fought for "new counter terrorism jobs at Los Alamos."

Shot outdoors with Udall sporting blue jeans and an open collar, he appeals to the many NM veterans who may be attracted to the Republican candidacy of either Heather Wilson or Steve Pearce--both veterans. Udall also takes his share of credit for helping to save Cannon Air Force Base. Udall, who turned 60 last Sunday, is not a military veteran, but he points out that this father, Stewart Udall, is and that he supports "a new G.I. Bill" so veterans can afford college.

Overall, the ads aim to appeal to voters outside of the ABQ-Santa Fe corridor where Udall's popularity is already high. They are also his first attempt at positioning himself in the middle of the political mainstream--not on the far left where the R's would like to place him. Our media mavens say it appears he is spending about $100,000 for his first TV week. Udall reported nearly $2.6 million in cash on hand at the end of March.

You can see the Udall ads here and here.

MONEY FOR MONTY

It looks as if Monty Newman will be the first million dollar man in the crowded and competitive race for the GOP Southern NM Congressional nomination,. The National Association of Realtors, which has elevated the former Hobbs mayor by paying for ads for his candidacy, has come with another $393,000. That takes their contributions to $990,000. Add on what Newman has raised on his own and he is well over a million. The trouble is Newman got a late start and the race still seems centered on Ed Tinsley and Aubrey Dunn. (Does it seem like Tinsely may be starting to move? ) Anyway, under the law Newman can't control what the Realtors say about him in their ads . They have now put up a second spot, but it is much like the first. The Realtors may know how to sell houses, but getting someone to the US House may be a different matter. We'll see.

ROSWELL ROUGHHOUSING

We head back to Chaves County for the street fights known as Foley vs. Kintigh and Adair vs. McMinn. The Roswell Daily Record, which came with that scorching anti-State Rep. Foley editorial, has now given the treatment to GOP State Senator "Lightning" Rod Adair. Here's a tidbit:

Adair has been a political player for a long time--too long for a man with his temperament...Whether he chooses a direct assault or the use of subtle machinations through his political allies, he goes after all and any who dare criticize him...

Discontent and factionalism is rampant among Chaves County area R's. Foley foe Dennis Kintigh, a retired FBI agent, has been hitting hard and effectively. Foley responded this week by calling Kintigh a mudslinger to which a Kintigh supporter retorted: "That's "like the kettle calling the pot black." Adair is also feeling the heat from his opponent, former Chaves County Commissioner Rory McMinn. Adair scored him for recently switching his party registration from decline-to-state back to Republican. But there are much bigger issues in these hottest of hot NM legislative primaries. It is a referendum on two prominent lawmakers who have stepped on a lot of toes and have made enemies with relish, not reluctance. Stay tuned.

A GAY OLD TIME

The gay-baiting of Northern Dem congressional candidate Ben Ray Lujan by rival Benny Shendo shook the body politic this week, but it wasn't the first time in New Mexico politics that sex and who you're having it with or not having it with has surfaced in a campaign. What made it different this time is how the accusation was made. Shendo went from the whispering circuit to the public megaphone, putting the story in play at a public forum and thus in the pages of the Santa Fe New Mexican. That is a first. ( Here is ABQ Journal coverage with some new info.) Here is the short video from the Farmington forum that will make the history books.




In 1976, GOP Senate candidate Harrison "Jack" Schmitt was subjected to endless rumors about his sexual preference by the camp of Democratic US Senator Joe Montoya. Schmitt was in his 40's, a handsome astronaut and unmarried, the perfect recipe for the gossip mongers. But Jack went on to easily defeat Montoya, and also to eventually marry. That's something for Ben Ray to take to heart.

Earlier in our history, Bronson Cutting, the progressive Republican senator, rich and single, was gay-baited throughout his career. Unlike Lujan, who addressed the issue directly by saying he is in a committed relationship with a woman, Cutting's sexual preference remains lost in the mists of history.

To this day the rumor mill continues, with several state legislators and a number of other NM public officials subjected to tongue wagging that they are closeted gays. While who is screwing whom may be titillating, it matters not at all to how our state and nation are run.

SHENDO'S SIN

Several readers e-mail that no one is asking Benny Shendo just what he is basing his accusations on. Shendo is pointing fingers at Lujan but does not explain himself, and has been condemned by representatives from several NM gay groups. It is "blatant character assassination" and Shendo needs to be called out for it," said one of our correspondents.

Attorney Helen Laura Lopez of Taos chimed in: "Shendo blew his political future...Shendo's small base was probably the more liberal white voters who are probably the least concerned by sexual orientation and who would be offended that he would interject it into his campaign. I hope Ben Ray choses to ignore it rather than spending time and money convincing voters that he is straight."

NM's liberal conscience, former ABQ mayor and Land Commissioner Jim Baca, also took a swing: "What I do not endorse is the nasty campaigning by Congressional candidate Benny Shendo in which he tries to out Ben Ray Lujan as being gay. Who cares? We should never forgive Shendo for this. Shame!"

Shendo is now out with a long and rambling missive that does nothing to answer the question of who appointed him the guardian of a candidate's sex life, or why it should matter. Will it have a negative impact on Lujan's candidacy? He may make up any votes he loses from Santa Fe's large gay community which could get behind him not because he is gay but because of Shendo's stupefying views on the role of sex in a political campaign.

It seems the reputation of Benny Shendo will suffer from this incident, not that of Ben Ray Lujan.

MORE ON THIS

In a twist of irony, the highest elected state official who was openly gay--former State Senator Liz Stefanics--will again be on the primary election ballot. Stefanics, a senator from the North in the 90's who was defeated for re-election, is seeking the Dem nod for a Santa Fe County Commission seat. She is currently director of the state Health Policy Commission, one of a number of openly gay officials in the administration of Big Bill who doesn't brag about it, but who has established a five star rating when it comes to human and civil rights in state government.

THE BOTTOM LINES

Attorney Bruce Throne, making his political debut in a jam-packed race for the Dem nod for the Northern Public Regulation Commission seat, is touting his endorsement from the ABQ Journal. Bruce is a utility expert who worked with then-Attorney General Jeff Bingaman in the early 80's....Southern Dem congressional candidate and Doña Ana County Commissioner Bill McCamley received the endorsements of three newspapers: The Las Cruces Sun-News, The Roswell Daily Record, and The Silver City Daily Press. McCamley foe Harry Teague is up with a new TV spot in which he touts his endorsement by NM Lt. Guv Diane Denish....Steve Pearce received the endorsement of his hometown newspaper, the Hobbs-News Sun. They recognized his "steadfast support of the state's conservative values."

"Into America’s West" debuts this week on the Travel Channel. Emmy Award Winner Jeff Corwin’s trail of discovery and adventure shows off the state of New Mexico to an international audience....Big Bill heads to Puerto Rico to campaign for Obama...

ABQ Dem congressional candidate Robert Pidcock joins Martin Heinrich and Michelle Lujan Grisham in putting up TV ads. The problem? We can't show you the spot because it's not posted on Pidcock's Web site.

Send your campaign news and comments via E-mail

(c)NM POLITICS WITH JOE MONAHAN 2008
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Somebody spiked the punch up North and the party has gone wild. The sexuality of Dem congressional frontrunner Ben Ray Lujan has been called into question by rival Benny Shendo; federal records show Don Wiviott has just contributed another $250,000 in personal money to his campaign bringing his total to an astounding $1,340,000. And last, but certainly not least, Big Bill is signaling he is going to put his big foot down and endorse Ben Ray for the nomination contest. This political funfest for an open US House seat also features attorneys Jon Adams and Rudy Martin and Santa Fe County Commissioner Harry Montoya. We had to do a late rewrite with all the activity, so we are starting you off with the relatively mundane news that there will be no TV debates for the Northern contest, but do read on for all the details of a wild and crazy day in La Politica. Grab your favorite beverage and pull up a chair. The entertainment portion of the program has begun...

Lujan & Wiviott
Forget about seeing the two leading contenders for the Northern Dem congressional nomination test each other before a statewide TV audience and show whether they have debating skills that would serve our state well in the US House. Plans for the one and only joint TV appearance between Ben Ray Lujan and Don Wiviott hit the skids when Wiviott said he could not adjust his schedule to take advantage of the KNME-TV offer.

"We offered him four schedule options. He took none of them," Said Kevin McDonald public affairs producer for the public TV station.

The Wiviott campaign says it is not "afraid" of Ben Ray as the Lujan camp charged. "Don had a meet or greet in Las Vegas that he could not cancel." Said a campaign spokesman.

But every politico from Deming to Dixon can see that Don sees no benefit in squaring off with Lujan. He also begged off a forum in Farmington Monday night, calling the newspaper there to to say he was too ill to attend. Perhaps Wiviott is not as well-versed in the nuance of legislation and public policy as Lujan, so why risk showing it on statewide TV? As for Farmington, Wiviott is seen as ahead in heavily Anglo San Juan County. He may have thought he had little to gain by showing up, or maybe he knew Benny Shendo was going to come unglued on Ben Ray. Read on for that.

KNME says in the end it asked Lujan to appear with candidate Benny Shendo, but he begged off. McDonald speculated, not without reason, that Lujan was concerned with Shendo's aggressive attitude toward him as shown at that Farmington forum.

Three of the Northern candidates--Martin, Adams and Montoya--will appear on KNME for a joint appearance Friday night at 7 p.m. Shendo will get a segment of his own.

The winner of the Dem Northern primary is the odds-on favorite to take the open US House seat in November. The R's are heavily outnumbered. For that reason, a primary debate (s) featuring Lujan and Wiviott testing each other would have carried more importance than debates in the other districts where the fall election promises to be more competitive. New Mexico was not well-served by the Northern TV black-out.

SEX AND THE CAMPAIGN

A bizarre exchange at the Farmington candidates forum in which Benny Shendo implied that Ben Ray Lujan's sexuality was at issue. Lujan's campaign manager told the New Mexican that Lujan is in a "loving and committed relationship" with a woman. Folks, the wheels are starting to come off of Campaign '08.

BILL'S CHOICE

It appears that Ben Ray could get the biggest endorsement of them all--from Big Bill. The Guv says he will make a pick next week. Easy money can be made that he will give his nod to Lujan, son of NM House Speaker Ben Lujan who has been critical to Bill's legislative success. An endorsement from the state's top Democrat will have just the impact the Lujan's would like, and it wouldn't be the first time. Four years ago Bill informally endorsed Ben Ray when he sought the Dem nod for the Public Regulation Commission seat he currently holds. Bill represented the Northern district in D.C. from 1983-97. He says he wants to endorse someone who "can win the seat."

The Guv also says he may weigh in on some of the other Dem congressional primaries. It's not common, but its not unheard of, especially with Richardson who isn't called Big Bill for nothing.

TIGHT OR NOT?

If Dan Rather was around he might say the race for the White House in New Mexico is "tight like a too-small bathing suit on a too-long ride home from the beach." But only if he was looking at the SurveyUSA poll released Monday which shows Obama and McCain battling to a dead heat at 44% apiece in our Enchanted Land. On the other hand, there is plenty of waist band on that swimsuit when you look at a recent Rasmussen poll that gives Obama a nine point lead--50% 41 %.

While the surveys disagree on the margin, they both point in the same direction--New Mexico will again be one of the few states in play in the presidential election when October rolls around. That means lots of attention from the candidates, their surrogates and those constant TV spots.

PREZ CAMPAIGN TO NM

John McCain is going to get a jump start on his NM presidential campaigning. He will be here next Monday--Memorial Day--to take part in a service for veterans. Not to be outdone, Michelle Obama will make a NM stop next Tuesday. She will hold a high-dollar reception (ticks $500 to $2300) at Yanni's restaurant in ABQ hosted by Big Bill and a $1000 a plate fundraiser at the Santa Fe home of former NM Attorney General Paul Bardacke.

And don't forget Bush. The Prez comes in for a fundraiser ABQ GOP congressional candidate Darren White Tuesday. Looks like he will be sharing the spotlight with Michelle.

MORE POLLS

The ABQ Journal says it will release polling on the NM congressional Dem primary contests in the ABQ and Northern districts this Sunday. That means they are in the field this week.

MICHELLE'S MEDIA

While the North has been hogging the limelight, here in ABQ, Michelle Lujan Grisham has been trying to drum up some media attention for her campaign for the Dem congressional nod. It hasn't been easy. She got off to a late start while frontrunner Martin Heinrich has been at it for nearly a year. Grisham, a former Big Bill cabinet secretary, has come with this TV ad pushing her service to seniors.

A HEALTHY CONTRACT

The Fourth Floor could not have been happy with the way the new consulting gig of Dave Contarino was played on the front pages. Contarino, Big Bill's former chief of staff and campaign manger for his presidential bid, has signed up as s a consultant to ValueOptions, the health firm seeking to renew a $300 million contract with the state and which has been a healthy contributor to the campaign coffers of the governor. Critics of the Guv may seize on the development to try to slow his healthcare reform plan that he says he will present to a special legislative session this summer. The question of who will benefit financially from such reforms may be more front and center in light of the Contarino news.

SENATE SIDE UP
Pearce
There's another of those third party groups coming for Steve Pearce in his bid for the GOP US Senate nomination. They are airing a radio ad slamming Pearce for Heather Wilson for "pork barrel" spending. The third party spending by the "American Prosperity" group and the conservative Club for Growth have helped Pearce dominate Wilson on the state's airwaves. Even without their help, Pearce has been the Alpha dog when it comes to money, but Heather has more cash on hand for the final days. The AP reports:

Pearce's campaign spent $964,784 from April 1 to May 14, according to a fundraising summary released Tuesday by his campaign. Wilson spent $776,068 during the same period. Wilson, however, has a larger stockpile of campaign cash for the closing weeks of the hotly contested race.Wilson's campaign had a cash balance of $712,476 as of last week and Pearce reported $247,207 cash on hand.

Wilson has received the endorsement of ABQ City Council President Brad Winter, and that's not all the campaigning Winter has been doing. He sent a blistering letter out to voters hitting Barry Bitzer, the former chief of staff to Dem Mayor Marty Chavez. Bitzer, a Republican, is seeking the GOP nod against incumbent State Senator Steve Komadina for his Corrales area seat. Bitzer helped engineer political coups against Winter while working at Chavez's side, so Winter is engaging in some pay back. He says in his letter: "Bitzer served as the Democrat mayor's hatchet-man and he set his sights on Republicans." A consultant to Bitzer questioned what the city council president was doing involving himself in a state senate race.

A BUNCH OF BOTTOM LINES

Dona Ana County Commissioner Oscar Butler was born in El Paso, not LA, as we blogged early Monday. However, he spent much of his adult life in Los Angeles. He hung with a rough crowd in East LA, too, so he knows his way around hardball politics...Conservation Voters New Mexico (CVNM) announced its endorsement of Espanola Mayor Joseph Maestas in his campaign for the District 3 open seat on the New Mexico Public Regulation Commission (PRC)...

Joe Barela of Rio Rancho has made up his mind on who to support for the Northern Dem congressional nod and it's worth our attention:

"My family & I have narrowed our choices for 3rd Congressional District. After much discussion and consternation we have decided on two candidates. Our first choice is a write-in candidate. That is Ben Lujan’s beautiful horse, who seemed more qualified that the rest of the field. Our second choice is Benny Shendo.

Sorry, Benny. I thought for sure you would beat Ben Ray's horse in the stretch...

And what about the horse of rancher and Southern GOP congressional candidate Ed Tinsley? He also rides his mount in a TV ad, but there is no question Ben Ray is giving his horse more airtime. Due to this overspending, we do think the Lujan horse is going to get more write-in votes than the Tinsley horse when the hoofs finally fall silent June 3. However, either horse would certainly deliver better service than we are currently getting in Washington.

Our KANW 89.1 FM Election Night coverage is moving along. We will kick off the night at 6:30. The pre-game show will be Monday, June 2 at 5 p.m., featuring predictions from our panel of pundits...

E-mail your latest news and comments and help us cover Campaign '08.

(c)NM POLITICS WITH JOE MONAHAN 2008
Not for reproduction without permission of the author

There's so much action at the top of the New Mexico ballot this year that the down ballot races have been orphans when it comes to media and public attention, but the hot ones are starting to come into focus as we head for the final stretch of Primary 2008. We're off to the races...

TAYLOR VS. GRIEGO

ABQ South Valley Dem Senator James Taylor is out door-knocking as he works to knock down a stiff challenge from former ABQ City Councilor Eric Griego who has raised nearly $60,000. Taylor is favored, but Griego's' money report pushed this race to the top of the watch list. Taylor got a boost from an ABQ Journal endorsement and is mailing it around the district. Griego will take on Taylor's record in the mail in the closing days. NM trial lawyers, unhappy with a Taylor vote on tort reform, support Griego. The Dem takes the prize. No R's are running.

ROBINSON VS. KELLER

In the SE Heights of ABQ Dem State Senator Shannon Robinson has held forth since 1989. The liberal wing of his party has put up 30 year old business consultant Tim Keller who has been working it hard. He has raised nearly $60,000, much of it family money. Robinson has been the subject of some unfavorable newspaper pieces in recent weeks, but friends say he is off the couch and on the sidewalks to keep the seat. Big Bill and big labor is helping. Keller did not register as a Democrat until 2006, a fact Robinson is not ignoring. No R's applied. The Dem winner takes it all.

GARCIA VS. BUTLER

State Sen. Mary Jane Garcia, 71, is fighting it out for the Dem nod with Dona Ana County Commissioner Oscar Butler. Garcia, Senate Majority Whip, is favored to win, but Butler, 67, a native of Los Angeles, is an articulate opponent who has made the race interesting. This is a battle of the old-timers, and Garcia is one of the originals. She has the edge.

LOPEZ VS. PADILLA

The campaign between State Sen. Linda Lopez and her challenger for the Dem nod, businessman Michael Padilla, has generated mixed reports. Padilla has said he could spend up to $100,000 to oust Linda. She is said to be working harder in recent weeks. Padilla has won the endorsement of the ABQ Journal and the NEA teachers union. Throughout her career, Lopez has done a poor job communicating. If it is going to catch up with her, this will be the year. This is a no R zone. Winner of the primary takes it all.

SILVA VS. CHAVEZ

We just added this ABQ Westgate Heights and Valley state House contest to the watch list. The Alligators say State Rep and House Transportation Committee Chairman Dan Silva is getting a run for his money from Eleanor Chavez, the director of the National Union of Hospital Health Care Employees 1199 in NM. There are many new residents in the district and Chavez is working. Silva's friends are urging him to turn it on in the final stretch. They say Chavez is too liberal for the district which Silva has represented since 1987. Silva with the edge, but the non-natives may be restless.

ROSWELL ROCKED
Kintigh and Foley
Roswell and environs were shell shocked again Monday by the state's wildest and craziest legislative primary. Just hours after scorching GOP State Rep. and House minority whip Dan Foley on her editorial page (see Monday blog) for questionable public conduct, the publisher of the Record, Dana Beck, was arrested at the home of her boyfriend and jailed on a charge of obstructing a police officer. Here is how KOB-TV reports the story.

Police arrested the publisher of the Roswell Daily Record early Monday morning because they say she was giving them a hard time during a routine investigation. Police say it was around 5:30 a.m. when the Daily Record publisher, Dana Beck, pulled up to her boyfriend's home in a taxi and asked the driver to wait for her while she ran inside. Soon after, the driver says she heard what sounded like a loud bang coming from the house and called police.

When the police arrived, they say Beck appeared to be drunk and wouldn't listen as they tried to get to the bottom of what was going on. "They went in to investigate to see if there was anything violent going on or any criminal activities. At which time she decided not to cooperate fully with what officers were trying to do, so she was placed under arrest at that time," said Sgt. Levy Moody of the Roswell Police Department. Beck is charged with obstructing an officer and resisting arrest. She bonded out of jail around 10:00 Monday morning.

Foley, who was lambasted by Beck's newspaper in a scathing foot-long Sunday editorial calling for his ouster, could not help but note the irony: "Apparently she has a problem. I hope she gets help. I don't take joy in other people's misery, but people who live in glass houses shouldn't throw stones," He said.

Foley was arrested last year on a charge of obstructing a police officer when he interfered at a basketball game involving his son. The charge was later dismissed, but it made him vulnerable to a GOP primary challenger. He faces retired FBI agent Dennis Kintigh who has not been shy about attacking Foley on TV and in the mail. Foley, first elected in '98 has raised over $70,000. Kintigh has topped the $30,000 mark. Foley is starting to turn the heat up on Kintigh with radio spots and direct mail.

This race is already hotter than a Times Square Rolex. If they keep it up, we're opening a Roswell Blogging Bureau.

PETE'S PREDICAMENT

In a classic case of trying to have your cake and eat it too, NM GOP Senator Pete Domenici is complaining about a third party ad that ran on behalf of GOP US Senate candidate Steve Pearce. This, even as Pete claims he is not making an endorsement in the spirited senate primary contest between Pearce and Pete protege, ABQ GOP US Rep. Heather Wilson. Pete ruled out an endorsement in the race last Friday, but by griping about the ad being run by the conservative Club for Growth and demanding that Pearce have it stopped, Domenici appears to be making a back-door endorsement.

Adding to the suspicion is that the ad stopped airing Friday. Pete says he is "disturbed" that the ad described SCHIP, a children's health insurance program, as "one of the largest take hikes...in history."

Insiders say Domenici was steered from endorsing Heather, in part, by family members who fear for his legacy and do not want to see him go out on a divisive note. One can imagine the hell Wilson has raised to get Domenici's influence in ABQ on her side. But by saying one thing and doing another Pete again opens himself to criticism that his last years have been a series of political missteps. The US attorney scandal, his down-the-line support of the unpopular Bush presidency and his inability or lack of desire to unify the small, but strife ridden NM GOP are some examples the Alligators toss out.

The Senator, 76, now could risk further tearing the GOP apart by making Pearce supporters livid and unwilling to get behind a Wilson candidacy in the fall. But Domenici's advisers are apparently betting there won't be any Wilson candidacy unless Pete, whether by hook or crook, lets it be known she is his choice. That's the stuff of politics, but maybe not of positive political legacies.

DIDN'T TAKE LONG

It didn't take long for Northern Dem congressional contender Ben Ray Lujan to counterattack. He came with a new TV ad Monday night that spotlighted the past business practices of Santa Fe real estate developer Don Wiviott. That follows Wiviott's negative hit on Lujan which started on TV Saturday night and has also been put into the mailboxes. In case you forgot, there are four other candidates also seeking the Northern Dem nomination. Here's a transcript of the Lujan ad:

Multimillionaire developer Don Wiviott's untrue attack ads can't hide his real record. Wiviott's Texas trailer parts company was prohibited by the FTC from price fixing. When Santa Fe community and government leaders opposed his proposed developments he sued the city and contributed thousands to council members to try and change their minds. Don Wiviott. The Wrong Choice for New Mexico.

The AFL-CIO will come for Lujan today, protesting Wiviott's hit on Lujan. They are sure to ramp up their get-out-the-vote machine as well. Lujan has practically the entire Dem establishment behind his candidacy. Heck, even the blackjack dealers might get in on this one.

THE BOTTOM LINES

Just the kind of La Politica stuff that we luv comes from former NM Secretary of State Shirley Hooper:

Santa Fe County Clerk Valerie Espinoza says her friends are calling her complaining they have received a call from a man posing as a drunk asking for their vote for Valerie and saying that she paid him to make the call. Valerie serves on a county committee to get drunks off the road.

Which reminds us of how they used to sweep into the bars in the North on Election Day and vote the drunks. The bars have long been closed on voting day. You must now feel the pain of voting for some of your choices.

E-mail your campaign news and comments.

(c)NM POLITICS WITH JOE MONAHAN 2008
Not for reproduction without permission of the author

Dunn
The NM congressional campaigns are feeling the heat of the approaching June 3 primary. That means some things that weren't supposed to happen are happening. For example, retired banker and Southern GOP congressional hopeful Aubrey Dunn on Friday loaned his campaign another $150,000, becoming the third NM US House hopeful to go over $350,000 in personal money and put in play the "Millionaires' Amendment." It allows his foes to increase the amount they can solicit from donors. Dunn's campaign had earlier said the $300,000 he initially loaned himself would be all the personal cash he would put in the pot, but with the five way race for the nomination still wide open, Dunn, 52, opened his wallet for the final stretch.

Restaurant chain owner Ed Tinsley's campaign had said the southern race could cost up to a million bucks to win. Dunn's move could force Tinsley, 51, to go to his personal checkbook which he has so far tapped for $150,000. The two ranchers are seen as tied in this battle, with former Hobbs Mayor Monty Newman in third. Dunn has launched a negative campaign on TV and in the mail as he tries to fend off Tinsley's surge. Second tier contender Earl Greer needs cash. His consolation is an endorsement from the Las Cruces Sun-News. Tinsley won the ABQ Journal's nod.

WHERE'S YOUR CRIB, ED?

It was Tinsley's residency that may have cost him the 2002 GOP nomination fight. He had a home on Rio Grande Blvd in ABQ, outside of the southern district. Now Dunn is hammering that theme. (You can see the charge up close by clicking on the posted image.) Dunn cites Tinsley's second home in the tony Santa Fe gated community of Las Campanas and notes that Tinsley says he spends about "60% of his time" at his ranch in Capitan, implying the other 40% is spent living outside the district. Ed already slashed Aubrey in the mail for opposing the Patriot Act, but the carpetbagger attack on Ed may have a more emotional connection with the voters.

Oh my, is this a fight to the finish, or what?

IN THE NORTH

No sooner had we put the finishing touches on Friday's blog titled, "Wondering about Wiviott," than we had to wonder no more. The wealthy Santa Fe real estate developer hit the TV airwaves Saturday night with a negative attack on Ben Ray Lujan, the frontrunner for the Dem congressional nomination for the seat currently held by Tom Udall.

There had been scuttlebutt that Wiviott would come with an attack on Lujan's ethics, trying to make him a miniature Eric Serna, but in his first hit we get a rather mild rejoinder over Ben Ray having been a blackjack dealer and not showing up for some meetings at an obscure state health commission he serves on.

"Most New Mexicans work hard to make it on their own. Lujan was a blackjack dealer in Las Vegas before his famous father got him a state job. Now Lujan makes $90,000 a year, but he didn't even show up to 13 of the 14 meetings of he the healthcare commission." Says the Wiviott ad.

That famous father, of course, is NM House Speaker Ben Lujan. The spot is not exactly grounds for an indictment, but Wiviott is this campaign's million dollar man, having donated gobs of his personal fortune to the cause. Airing the spot ad nauseam might knick the frontrunner. If Ben Ray decides to hit back--and you know he will--he has some ammo about Wiviott's business practices before he moved to Santa Fe in the mid-90's. By the way, Lujan, 35, says he was a blackjack dealer in NM, not Vegas.

The gut check here says Don is going to have to administer tougher punches to change the direction of this contest. That direction remains firmly in favor of the blackjack dealing, meeting-missing and ABQ Journal endorsed Ben Ray.

KNIFE FIGHT IN ROSWELL

It's as rough as it gets in the state's premier legislative primary battle taking place in Roswell. GOP State Rep. Dan Foley was knifed and gutted by a foot-long editorial in the Roswell Daily Record Sunday. (Read it by clicking on the image posted here. The piece was not posted Sunday on the paper's Web site.) The controversial Foley had every sin he ever committed listed by the paper which says it has had enough of the House Minority Whip.

"Enough is enough. Bullies have no place in our state Legislature. It's time for a change." blasted the Record as it endorsed Foley foe Dennis Kintigh, a retired FBI agent.

This is now wide-open Old West warfare between the newspaper, Kintigh and Foley. Foley's GOP legislative ally, Roswell State Senator "Lightning" Rod Adair, refuses to be quoted in the Record. He is trying to fend off a stiff primary challenge from Rory McMinn. Foley's district also includes parts of Lincoln and Otero counties. You may have heard of the Lincoln County War of the 1870's. Welcome to the 21st century version. Someone pass the popcorn. This is getting wild.

DASH FOR THE SENATE

The GOP US Senate candidates were at it again over the weekend, battling to what appeared to be a standstill Saturday night at a debate in Roswell. Both Steve Pearce and Heather Wilson are getting scrappier and tougher with early voting underway and primary election day just under two weeks away. (Video here.)Wilson stopped the debate in a dispute about the rules. That figured prominently in the AP dispatch. It was a rare misfire for Wilson. Was she feeling the pressure? Pearce was more aggressive than he was when the hopefuls last debated at Los Alamos, answering Wilson's charges with many of his own.

There was no news from the session that changed the complexion of the contest which polling shows Pearce is leading. But the debate did start to show how hungry both candidates are for the job. That's to the benefit of the state if the eventual R nominee should pull off an upset over Dem Tom Udall in November. It is one bright spot in a negative campaign that most NM Republicans would rather pass up.

DAVID'S DIARY

The man who helped hasten the departure of GOP Senator Domenici which in turn led to the Pearce-Wilson contest is making the rounds touting his new book "In Justice" which is billed as "An Insiders Account on Law and Truth in the Executive Branch." Former NM US Attorney David Iglesias sent Domenici's approval rating plunging last year when he revealed that the Senator and Congresswoman Wilson had pressured him to speed up indictments in the Manny Aragon ABQ Metro Court corruption case. The scandal also involved the firings of other US Attorneys and became a national political event. Iglesias did a half-hour on KOB-TV Sunday. No groundbreaking news, but the appearance was a reminder of Wilson's role in the scandal and no help to her Senate effort.

EARLY, BUT NOT OFTEN

Only 74 voters made it to the early voting site at Del Norte Shopping Center in the ABQ NE Heights for the first day of early in-person voting Saturday. My experts say don't expect a record breaking turnout for the primary election, and this seems to confirm that opinion. They see about 35% to 40% of registered R's making it to the polls. That would make for a turnout of about 125,000.

THE BOTTOM LINES

We get inquires each election cycle asking where the candidates stand on the issues. The ABQ Journal has a voting section devoted to such matters and more. The TV stations special Web sections, including those of KOB-TV and KRQE-TV are also good resources, as well as KOAT-TV...

All six Dem candidates for the Northern US House seat are expected to duke it out tonight at the Farmington Civic Center at 7 p.m. The public is invited...

E-mail your news and comments and help us cover the final stretch of Primary '08.

(c)NM POLITICS WITH JOE MONAHAN 2008
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There's still hope for Heather Wilson, but Steve Pearce is in the lead in the first media poll to hit the streets in the fight for the GOP US Senate nomination. It's Pearce 49% and Wilson 46% in the SurveyUSA poll conducted for KOB-TV Monday through Wednesday of this week among 439 registered NM R's. Back in January, a NM Republican Party poll also had the rivals separated by three points (38%-35%), with Pearce again on top. The margin of error in this poll is 4.8%.

Insiders have been saying they believe Pearce has the edge in this race, positioned as he is as the most conservative candidate. Also, turnout could favor the southern NM congressman. That would put Pearce ahead a couple of more points in the polling. Last Friday Senator Pete Domenici refused to make an endorsement in the contest, a major boost for Pearce as Wilson is a longtime Domenici favorite.

SurveyUSA makes this point about their poll: "Compared to an identical SurveyUSA poll released six months ago, Pearce is up 12 points. Wilson is down 10 points."

Pearce leads by 22% when you combine the north and the south--58% to 36%. Wilson takes Bernalillo County by 25 points--61% to 36%.

The key for a Wilson comeback is big Bernalillo County. "SurveyUSA estimates that 40% of Republican voters will come from Bernalillo County. The larger the turnout from that county, the better Wilson does."

The poll will be greeted with open arms by NM Dems. It shows their soon-to-be Senate nominee, Tom Udall, trouncing Pearce in a hypothetical match-up 60% to 36%. He beats Wilson 61% to 35%. Wilson has been arguing in campaign media that she is the stronger choice for the Republicans, but this poll gives her no help at all on that score.

The complete poll is here.

DUNN GOES NEGATIVE

Aubrey Dunn has come gunning for Ed Tinsley and Monty Newman. He hit with negative ABQ TV Thursday night as the battle for the GOP Southern congressional nomination escalated. Dunn attacked Tinsley for having a soft stance on illegal immigration and attacked Newman for being a tax raiser while Mayor of Hobbs. No word on the size of the TV buy, but Alligators checking in here said Dunn's move feels like the right one at the right time.

Alligators and insiders following the action report they see Tinsley and Dunn fighting for the lead with former Mayor Newman breaking into third place with that big TV buy from the National Association of Realtors. Tinsley is now nuking Newman in the mail as he did last week to Dunn. But Dunn's TV attack raises the stakes. Will Tinsley turn the cheek or strike back?

Leaving the aggressive Dunn to his own devices seems dangerous.

TV TALK
McCamley & Teague
Media sources say southern NM Dem congressional hopeful Bill McCamley has bought $16,000 in TV time for a four day run starting today for his first ad on ABQ TV. You can see it here. Hobbs oil man Harry Teague has been up for several weeks with what looks like about $100,000 per week. Polling shows Teague has established himself as the clear frontrunner, but undecideds remain high. We checked and it appears there will be no TV debates in this contest.

McCamley is limited in what he can put on the air. His cash on hand at the end of April was in the $200k area. Teague is independently wealthy and has put nearly $700,000 of his money into the race. His campaign says if he thinks it necessary the candidate will come with more in the final weeks.

The campaign of Dem congressional hopeful Martin Heinrich says his initial TV buy is for $50,000 over four days, not the seven days we initially blogged. They say his TV for the rest of the campaign will "be sizable."

The campaign of Michelle Lujan Grisham said Friday night her first TV spot will air this weekend. Our media mavens previously reported she had bought time for the final week of the campaign. No word on the size of the buy, but Grisham had less than $100,000 in the bank at the end of March.

WIVIOTT'S WALLET
Wiviott
He has the money, but does he have the time? Northern Dem congressional candidate Don Wiviott has come with yet more personal money. The fresh $100,000 the Santa Fe developer has put up this week means he has loaned himself $1,090,000. Still, few voters are aware of any major differences between him and Dem frontrunner Ben Ray Lujan and the clock is now Wiviott's enemy. With that kind of money, why didn't he come with much heavier name ID TV in April, and start establishing negative points on Lujan when early voted started May 6? He may now come with an all out nuclear attack, but has he established the credentials to launch such an offensive without suffering a backlash? Wiviott could forego a negative finish and position himself for a future race. If he goes negative and fails, it will be his first and very likely last bite out of New Mexico's political apple. But what if it works? That's why politics is an art not a science, isn't it?

E-mail your news, comments and campaign news, and thanks for tuning in.

(c)NM POLITICS WITH JOE MONAHAN 2008
Not for reproduction without permission of the author

Lujan & Udall
The Udalls of Arizona have put the welcome mat out for the Lujans of New Mexico and it could mean a US House party for Lujan the Younger. Stewart Udall, 88, a founding member of the American environmental movement, Secretary of Interior under President Kennedy, former US Rep from Arizona and father of Northern NM Congressman Tom Udall, said Wednesday from his Santa Fe home that Ben Ray Lujan is the Democrat who should succeed his son in Washington. It was a crystal clear message to Udall supporters and stole much needed oxygen from the candidacy of wealthy Santa Fe developer Don Wiviott.

"I have decided to endorse Ben Ray Luján for the third congressional district race. Although there are fine people running in the race, Ben Ray stands out in the crowd. Why? Because others are forced to talk about what they hope to do in the future, while Ben Ray has an outstanding and proven record on the environment and of standing up for the people of New Mexico."

That's pretty heady stuff for the 35 year old Lujan, a public regulation commissioner whose father, NM House Speaker Ben Lujan, is one of the state's premier power players.

The politics of the Udall endorsement make perfect sense. To become the next US senator from NM Tom Udall will need a huge northern majority. With a Hispanic Dem on the ticket working to get the vote out, Udall will directly benefit. Tom Udall is unable to endorse in a contested primary, but in this case, Dad is much more than second best.

It's not all politics. Ben Ray has also received the nod from the Sierra Club, Conservation Voters NM and environmental State Senator McSorley, securing the trust of a voting bloc that self-described "green" builder Wiviott was counting on. You have to believe that Stewart Udall is pretty comfortable in his skin about Lujan or, politics or not, he would not be putting at risk his own hard-earned reputation.

Lujan is on his way to taking the Dem nomination in the North, but there is still one formidable obstacle--Wiviott's money and a possible negative campaign. He has loaned his campaign nearly $1 million. He can do whatever he chooses. But if your Ben Ray Lujan and have the character reference of Stewart Udall, revered by liberals in NM and across the nation for his life's work, you have an insurance policy that is paid in full.

DARREN BLASTS BACK
White
A cornerstone of the Darren White for Congress campaign is that he quit his job as head of the Department of Public Safety in protest of Governor Johnson's proposals to legalize drugs. So it was no surprise that White's campaign reacted angrily to our Tuesday blog in which a reader said White was actually for Johnson's drug plans before he announced his opposition. They supplied a quote from a pro-drug legalization publication which we linked to and which you can read by scrolling down The campaign of the Bernalillo County Sheriff hit back hard:

...Our opponents have been...trying to reinvent history with respect to Darren White's position on Governor Johnson's push to legalize drugs. Unfortunately for (Dem congressional candidate) Heinrich, the quote...is not the earth-shaking controversy he is so clearly hoping for. Rather, this is a...flagrant disregard for the truth..That identical quote...was reported by the Associated Press in October of 1999... Like the original story on this issue, this AP story noted White's opposition to drug legalization. White's view has not changed and he continues...to make the point that enforcement by itself will not stop drug use. White supports additional measures such as prevention, education, treatment, and sentencing alternatives...

A White supporter e-mailed in a 2002 news report from the ABQ Journal buttressing the argument that White ditched Johnson over the dope issue.

"Gov. Gary Johnson has waded into the Republican primary election race for Bernalillo County sheriff, but not for the candidate who once was his Cabinet secretary for public safety. Johnson wrote a fund-raising letter on behalf of candidate Marshall Katz, one of five Republicans seeking the office..."

Well, we griped this week about the low-key ABQ congressional campaigns. Now, it looks like we skipped right to the general election.

TO THE TUBE

With primary voters set to swarm to the polls in big numbers for the Saturday opening of early in-person voting, Martin Heinrich is putting up his first TV ad today. You can see it here. It is a soft-sell, broad-based approach, mentioning Heinrich's support of an increased city minimum wage, his environmental work and his working class parents. Our TV insiders say it appears Heinrich will start his advertising with about $50,000. His campaign says tht amount will be spent in the first four days. Media experts say $100,000 a week is needed to truly blanket the market.

Another of the four Dem ABQ congressional hopefuls, Michelle Lujan Grisham, will also do TV, but not right now. The TV mavens tell us she has booked about $50,000 worth for the final week of the primary contest. The other two candidates are Robert Pidcock and Rebecca Vigil-Giron.

Meanwhile, all of NM's Dems are rejoicing over the Democratic victory in a special election in a normally Republican congressional seat in Mississippi. They are hoping that it signals a big national Dem trend that could finally sweep away the R's in the ABQ district, who have held the seat the since 1968.

UDALL TV

Soon-to-be Dem US Senate nominee Tom Udall will spend some of that $2.6 million he has collected. TV trackers say he has bought about $80,000 in the ABQ market for a one week run that will being next Wednesday. He is expected to stay up until the June 3rd primary.

In the northern congressional district Dem Don Wiviott, who has given his campaign a million dollars in personal money, is off TV for a couple of days. He is "retooling his spots" says a spokesman. When Wiviott goes back up will he go negative on frontrunner Ben Ray Lujan?

CANNON FODDER

If you're Heather Wilson and nuking your GOP US Senate rival Steve Pearce for being anti-Cannon Air Force Base, you don't need articles like this popping up. The base is adding a Special Operations Squadron. What's that again about "mothballing" the place?

While Heather is blasting Pearce over Cannon, Pearce's out-of-state sympathizers are hammering Heather and Tom Udall. It's that "push poll" we told you about yesterday and which has the Udall campaign so upset. The thing about Republicans is that they don't argue the moral imperatives of push polling and such things. They just do it. Which brings us back to the fact that Pearce continues to beat the tar out of Udall not just over the phones, but on statewide TV and with nary a peep from Tom and Company. The last we heard, the bully doesn't back down until you stand up to him, but apparently the high-powered Udall consultants think they have a big enough lead to absorb such attacks. Here in the bleachers, we are much more uncertain.

THINGS WE DON'T HAVE TIME TO WRITE ABOUT

Like the crazy stuff going on in the Chaves County GOP over the hot primary contests being waged against State Rep. Foley and State Sen. Adair. The chair of the county party is saying Adair and Foley are being subjected to unfair attacks! Like those two guys don't know how to play hardball?

THE BOTTOM LINES

The only candidate of Hispanic descent (by his mother) seeking the GOP nomination for the southern congressional seat has received the endorsement of the Republican National Hispanic Assembly. They say: "We wholeheartedly endorse Earl Greer for Congress...He is a man of great integrity, uncompromising morals, and solid character. He reflects our proud Hispanic values, and we would be very honored to have him represent the Hispanic community and the second district in Congress...New Mexico Commissioner of Public Lands, Patrick Lyons, announced Wednesday that he is endorsing Ed Tinsley in New Mexico’s Southern congressional Republican primary. That could help Tinsley to start peeling away from what is a crowded and
highly competitive field.

E-mail your news, comments and campaign news.

(c)NM POLITICS WITH JOE MONAHAN 2008
Not for reproduction without permission of the author

Neither of the leading candidates for the ABQ congressional seat are getting much seasoning from their first major political campaign. Dem Martin Heinrich and R Darren White have under financed opponents who, so far, have been surprisingly docile. But if there was a real campaign going on, there would be some tough questions for the probable nominees. They are no further than our e-mail box. Starting on the R side, Edward Marquez plays the role of White's opponent and comes with this:

Joe, You and the ABQ Journal missed the story on how White supported Gov. Johnson's drug policy before he was called inept by state police and then said he quit because he opposed legalizing drugs and not the no confidence vote he was given by NM state police.

Marquez supplied this White quote from a 1999 edition of the publication Razor Wire.

"State Public Safety Secretary Darren White said the federal government spends about $17 billion annually to fight drugs, including about $6 million in New Mexico. "And we're probably only seizing 5 to 15 percent of all the drugs coming into the country," White said in an interview. "We're not going to arrest ourselves out of this drug problem. The governor is absolutely right. We should be looking at other options because our current policy is failing."

Look for that quote to dance around in October, if not before the June 3 balloting.

ANOTHER READER CHALLENGE

On the D side, here's Thomas Rymsza, a Democratic Party ward chair.

Reading that Heinrich operated a consulting business and did not get a business license until more than a year after he was on the City Council (ABQ. Journal May 7, 2008) is distressing. As a small business person, with no college degree or experience in politics, even I knew that my consulting work required getting a business license...I hope that Heinrich can produce tax reports to show his business was real...Democrats need to be very careful come June 3rd and support a candidate that can beat Darren White. Michelle Lujan Grisham or Robert Pidcock both will be stronger than Heinrich--and both carry less baggage.

Heinrich has not responded to a state GOP demand that he release his tax records for the consulting business he operated. He told the Journal his failure to get a business license was an oversight that he corrected.

Blog readers are much tougher on the leading candidates than any of their foes in these walk-in-the-park primaries for the ABQ congressional seat.

POLLS PLEASE

KKOB-AM radio morning host Bob Clark asks us the question on the minds of many in the political community: When will we get some public polling on the big races?

It appears the ABQ Journal will do just one poll of all the congressional races. It will probably come on Sunday, May 25 or the Sunday before the June 3rd election. We would bet on the 25th. As for TV, we haven't seen anything from Survey USA yet, but they usually do something for KOB-TV. We'll keep you posted.

ANTSY DEMS: PART II

We blogged Tuesday of "antsy" Dems waiting for a higher campaign profile from soon-to-be US Senate nominee Tom Udall. But Ellen Wedum, a Dem activist and state house candidate in Otero County, said Udall has had plenty of profile in her SE NM neighborhood:

Udall and his wife, Jill Cooper, have been campaigning down our way. They have both visited with local Democrats, attended the Alamogordo Chamber of Commerce annual banquet, and visited with VFW members who were preparing a welcome for our troops just back from Iraq. Udall also attended the Chaves Co pre-primary convention back in March. I think he has been doing a good job of laying the groundwork for his campaign in Pearce territory.

Udall's early attention to the East side is something we have noted. The R's will beat him there, but if he can keep the totals down, his strength in the North and ABQ would be hard to offset.

NO CASH CRUNCH

If Steve Pearce comes up short in his US Senate bid, there's plenty of cash to divert him from the pain. From Roll Call:

...Pearce and his wife have become quite wealthy. The assets listed on his personal financial disclosure form for calendar year 2002 totaled $1.6 million to $6.4 million, not including Individual Retirement Accounts and loans he made to his Congressional campaigns. By last May, Pearce was reporting assets ranging from $7.3 million to $32.6 million, not including IRAs. That total also does not include an additional $1.2 million the Pearce's contributed in late 2003 to the Stevan and Cynthia Pearce Charitable Foundation...

Staying with the Senate race, reader Daniel Balke chastised us for our Monday blog where we descried the GOP Senate nomination as being "coveted."

Hi, Joe: I'm not sure how 'coveted' the Republican nomination will be. Pearce is a clumsy campaigner, and Udall has statewide respect from Democratic and moderate voters alike. Coupled with a fundraising edge, this will likely translate into a victory, if not a trouncing, of the GOP candidate in November. Being in a position to show up on the short-end of Udall's victory is about as coveted as being an ice cube in the hot New Me