It's no secret that the colorful entrepreneur Richard Branson is given to hyperbole, but his latest boast may have pushed the envelope. Branson says Virgin Galactic now plans it's first launch of passengers into sub-orbital space from the New Mexico Spaceport on Christmas Day:

Virgin Galactic, the space tourism company co-owned by Abu Dhabi’s Aabar Investments, will stage its first flight on Christmas Day this year. Richard Branson, whose Virgin Group co-owns Virgin Galactic, said in Dubai that he would be on board the first public flight on December 25...The news follows the first successful test of SpaceShipTwo, which took off from a space port in the Mojave Desert in California on April 29.

No doubt progress is being made, but Branson has been predicting a lift-off every year for at least four years. We suspect this holiday deadline may also pass without much notice, but we do hope Santa grants his wish.

SLICING THE SPACE PIE

Meanwhile, we see that Aabar Investments in Abu Dubai now owns nearly 40% of Virgin Galactic and that they are pressuring Branson to build a Spaceport in the wealthy Middle East nation.

Branson's quote on this should be of interest to New Mexico policy makers because it indicates that the pie consisting of tourists who pay $200,000 to go into sub-orbital space is going to be cut up:

The British entrepreneur said he expected a space port in Abu Dhabi about two years after the launch of Virgin Galactic’s first commercial flight into space, which is billed for the end of this year from Spaceport America in New Mexico.

“The idea was to get the space program up and running in the U.S., which it will by the end of this year,” said Mr. Branson at an event for Virgin Mobile in Dubai. “Get the space port in New Mexico bedded down and then I think Abu Dhabi is likely to be the next place that we open a space port in. My guess would be it will take a couple of years.”

This may not be a New Mexico exit strategy already being crafted by Branson as some may fear, but the  lesson may be that if New Mexico is to compete,  it not only has to concentrate on the bricks and mortar of the actual Spaceport but start looking at the on-the-ground experience it provides potential space tourists.

FOLLOW THE JOBS

ABQ area residents stuck in homes that are worth a lot less than what they paid for them will probably have to wait even longer before they break even. Real estate pros say it's quite simple--follow the jobs. When good-paying jobs come on line, housing prices and sales will get stronger. Right now, we're stuck:

The Albuquerque metro was dropped from the May list of metros in the Improving Markets Index...pointing to just how tenuous the housing recovery is here. Albuquerque was first listed in the index in February on the strength of increases in housing permits, home prices and a tiny uptick in overall employment. The index doesn’t explain why Albuquerque was dropped, but data show the continuation of a trend of net job losses and flat permits....Jim Folkman of the ABQ Homebuilders Association says: “...Sustainable growth in the housing market is nearly always driven by new job creation and, regrettably, we still lag behind other states in our geographic region..."

TACKLING FOOTBALL

We're saying here that the noise is going to get louder in the next decade about the role of athletics at the state's two largest universities--UNM And NMSU--particularly the expensive football programs that are perennial laggards. It's getting louder:

Members of the New Mexico State University community are pushing back against Regents Chairman Mike Cheney’s public exhortation that Aggies support athletics, in particular the long-struggling football program. A petition on the website change.org urges the five member Board of Regents to “stop diverting funds from academics to support failing athletics programs.” The petition had been signed by more than 300 people, including alumni and current students, by Friday. Meanwhile, a letter...signed by nearly 100 faculty members, took aim at the struggling Aggie football team: “Supporting football disproportionately is unjustifiable.”

CONNECTIONS '13

Mayor Berry's $500 a pop fund-raiser tomorrow sponsored by ABQ GOP attorney Paul Kennedy is worth a mention, As a defense attorney Kennedy has settled a number of lawsuits against the ABQ police department totaling millions of dollars. He remains active in suing the city in police abuse cases.

When both were in private practice, Kennedy shared law office space with Rob Perry, the city's current chief administrative officer who is in charge of the day-to-day running of city government--including  the city attorney's office where lawsuit settlements are discussed.

The Kennedy fund-raiser doesn't violate the city campaign law that bans contractors who do business with the city from donating to a mayoral campaign, but the connections are such it demonstrates why we always follow the money.

Meantime, the city ethics board has agreed to hold a hearing on a complaint against the mayor that claims he has violated the contractor ban.

And in related news....

The attorney for the family of ABQ civil rights attorney Mary Han, the longtime law partner of Paul Kennedy who police say committed suicide but whose family questions the circumstances of her death, says they are hiring private investigator Michael Corwin to look at Han's 2010 death at her ABQ North Valley home. The AP updated the case in March.

ELECTION '13

ABQ City Councilor Dan Lewis is seeking a second four year term on the council this year. He represents the West Side and his campaign says:

City Council President Dan Lewis, turned in over 750 petition signatures from registered voters in District 5 on Monday and 425 qualifying contributions to qualify for over $40,900 in public financing. Lewis far exceeded the 500 petition signatures required to be placed on the October ballot and the 400, $5 contributions required to qualify for public financing. Lewis completed both requirements in 19 two weeks ahead of the May 31st deadline.

Lewis is a Republican. Dem Eloise Gift has announced she is running for the Lewis seat.

JOB CREATOR?

It's well-known news that New Mexico's jobs record has been dismal during this post-recession period and while you can't blame it all on the sitting Governor, it is odd to hear her being called a "job creator" as she appears at out-of-state fundraisers:

Ohio Republicans will hold a statewide fundraising dinner this year, with New Mexico Gov. Susana Martinez headlining the June 29 event. "I'm elated that Gov. Martinez will be the keynote speaker for our annual State Dinner," state Republican chairman-elect Matt Borges said. "She's a job creator, tax cutter, and was elected the first female governor of New Mexico and the nation's first Latina governor. I can't wait to meet her in person.

Martinez will take a 66% NM approval rating with her to Ohio, according to a SurveyUSA poll released by KOB-TV Monday night and conducted in the state May 14-17. In an ABQ Journal poll last September, the Guv scored a 69% approval rating. That's keeping Dem challengers away from her door and her on the road....

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Clifford & Barela (Journal)

If you're of a certain age you probably remember the "Credibility Gap." It was the moniker given to Washington's tortured and tangled 1960's and 70's explanations for what was going on with the Vietnam War.  Well, the Credibility Gap is back.

Washington is scampering to explain a trio of scandals. In Santa Fe the administration and key legislators are trying to separate themselves from the political tar baby known as the 2013 legislative tax package. We'll let others opine on how they're doing in DC, but in Santa Fe they're still stuck.

The latest victim: Economic Development Secretary Jon Barela. With a straight face he told the Legislative Finance Committee that if the controversial tax package had not been passed in the final moments of the '13 session, two ABQ companies with 1,500 jobs would have fled New Mexico. The kicker? Barela refused to tell lawmakers and taxpayers what companies were supposedly poised to hit the highway if the tax package died.

Well, we can be quite certain it wasn't the moving van companies that were threatening to leave. They're doing banner business here.

Barela's gambit came as a clean-up effort after another cabinet secretary got bogged in the tar. Tom Clifford, head of Department of Finance, was forced to apologize last week for misinformation he doled out to legislators about the tax cut package in the final moments of the session.

And then there was State Senator John Arthur Smith moaning like a summertime version of Zozobra that anyone who opposed the corporate tax cut just doesn't know what they are talking about.

The people in opposition to an income tax concession by any means have absolutely no idea what they're talking about...

Please forgive us, Senator Smith. We haven't had the benefit of attending the Deming School of Economics but as you are so fond of telling us, you can't have it all in this life...

GARREY'S BREAK

Garrey Carruthers

But it isn't only those of us in the peanut gallery who are questioning Santa Fe's mastery of the dismal science. Former GOP Governor Garrey Carruthers ('87-'91), recently named as president of NMSU, broke with Barela and the Martinez Democrats and said tax incentives for certain sectors can chase away others.

He also did not shy away from pointing out that New Mexico is the only state in the western USA not getting back on its economic feet. And he also struck a chord that your blog has been sounding for a number of years:

As for business development, he said the state would profit from a thorough analysis of its workforce.
For instance, Spaceport America has no plan for the precise workforce it needs to excel in space travel and transportation, Carruthers said. The Spaceport in Sierra County is a $209 million venture built by tax dollars.

That has us harkening back to our first blog of the new year of 2006, when Carruthers talked about the growing achievement gap between Anglo students and their Hispanic and Native American counterparts. He warned then that as the state grew more majority-minority educational disparity would be problem that could deliver a body blow to the state economy. From everything we see around us seven years later,, that day has arrived.

Garrey is not of the Tea Party crowd, but a member of that nearly extinct club known as "moderate Republican." Is he going to be emerge as a leader of a new school of Republican thought that broadens the parties economic message beyond tax cutting? As president of NMSU, he has the platform.

Come on in, Garrey. The players have changed since '86 but as they say the game is the same...

A GLIMMER IN THE GOO

What seems like an outburst of arrogance and defensiveness by policy makers and certain legislators comes as the state's economy continues to be redefined downward.

There is a glimmer of good news in the latest jobless report. It showed a wee bit of a pick up in year-over-year employment growth in April. That's a five year first.  But--and there's always a but when it comes to jobs these days---we continue to lose what tend to be the higher paying jobs in professional and business services, while adding jobs in the lower paying leisure industry.

Then there's the issue of the unemployment rate continuing to sink because people have dropped out of the work force and/or left the state--not because we are on the cusp of a robust recovery.

Speaking of leaving the state, that's what Governor Martinez does with increasing frequency, raising the millions she will spend on her re-election bid next year.  Well, she isn'y going to raise that kind of money around here. But is she even going to need it? The Democrats have put up a hapless opposition and many are so demoralized, divided and desperate that they are talking up ther chances of 2018, skipping right over '14.

They're right when they say politics can change as quick as the weather. In this--their not so merry month of May--the Dems need the equivalent of a snow storm.

MAYOR '13

Mayor Berry

The first public poll of the 2013 ABQ mayor's race confirms what political insiders on both sides of the aisle have been saying--the race in the early going is Mayor Richard Berry's to lose. However, despite a commanding 59 to 17 percent lead over Pete Dinelli, Republican Berry still has to keep his eye on the ball. The city is heavy Dem and a major misstep or unexpected development could shift public opinion. But the incumbent couldn't ask for a much better start in the SurveyUSA automatic phone poll conducted for KOB-TV May 14 through 17 among 501 likely voters.

Retired APD police sergeant and Republican Paul Heh polled 9% and 15% of respondents were undecided.

From SurveyUSA:

Berry runs strong among all groups within the city, but particularly among whites, where he leads by almost 6:1, and among Republicans, where he leads by 11:1. Dinelli has a foothold among seniors, among liberals and in Southeast Albuquerque.

Albuquerque's economy is first on the mind of the city's likely voters. 44% name the economy as their most important issue, followed far back by crime at 18% and police integrity at 17%.

Residents have confidence in the city's police department. 63% of adults have either total or some confidence in the department, compared to 36% who have not very much confidence or no confidence. 

A candidate must get 50% of the vote in the October mayoral election to avoid a run-off between the top two contenders. This poll shows it will be Dinelli's job to keep Berry under 50% and force that run-off.

With a 40 point lead in the opening innning, some may be tempted to write the race off, so we asked for a Senior Alligator to tell us Dinelli can get the race more in play:

This is a very good poll for Berry. He has a forty point lead over his closest competitor and support across the city and the political spectrum. But there are cracks that ought to concern the mayor.

First, his poll numbers may be softening some. In a survey for the ABQ Journal last October Berry garnered an approval rating of 68%. But his opponents keep his re-elect number below 60% in the SurveyUSA. That's probably due to fellow Republican Paul Heh being in the race. But it also makes the likelihood of a run-off more likely. With 99% name ID Berry's numbers aren't going up. They'll go down from here.

Second is the economy. It's the number one issue for voters and it's where GOP businessman Berry is most vulnerable. If Dinelli is able to consolidate the Democratic vote by hammering the jobs issue and Heh continues to siphon-off Republican voters, Berry's numbers could erode further.

The mayor is also sure to recall that at this time four years ago he was at 14% in the polls--and we all know how that race turned out.

Berry is the first Republican Mayor in ABQ since the 1980's. Dinelli ran for mayor once before in 1985. Heh is making his first bid for elective office. A poll of 501 likely voters has a margin of error of about 4.4%.

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The Dems may be fretting over what many of them perceive as the lack of a strong Dem Guv contender for next year, but what about the R's? They have Susana for Guv, but there's work to do in filling out the rest of the '14 ticket. One of our GOP insiders has the latest scuttlebutt on possible contenders and we add our take to theirs:

GARY JOHNSON--It's hard to see the former GOP Governor running for anything after his Libertarian presidential candidacy last year, but more Republicans are saying he should run for the US Senate against Tom Udall--and run as an R. 

We don't see Gary taking the dive, but we'll stay tuned.

SIMON KUBIAK--We haven't had a Republican state auditor in decades. ABQ attorney Kubiak is weighing a run for the post being vacated by Hector Balderas, or a run for the ABQ congressional seat held by Dem Michelle Lujan Grisham'.

Either one seems plausible, but both races heavily favor the Dems.

NATE GENTRY--Some insiders are trying to convince him to give up his ABQ state House seat and run for Land Commissioner. They are claiming they'd raise a lot of oil money for him and that it could set him up for a run Governor after Susana is out. Sounds pretty wild but that's the chatter.

That is wild. We see Gentry--the new state House Minority Whip--staying put.

PAT LYONS--While many thought he'd challenge Democrat Ray Powell for Land Commissioner, we are told he will run for re-election to the Public Regulation Commission. Lyons is definitely not happy about not being PRC Chairman anymore, but he loves that safe check. The job pays $90,000 a year.

This looks like the right move for Lyons. Powell is hard to beat.

MATT CHANDLER--Still seen as our mostly likely go-to guy for us for attorney general. No other names are circulating. Chandler is the District Attorney in Clovis and was the GOP nominee in 2010 but lost to Dem Gary King. He seems ready to run again.

Yes, despite his recent follies in a Las Cruces corruption case, we see Matt as a potentially strong candidate for the R's. We think he's ready for another go.

DEMESIA PADILLA--She is the head of the state taxation department.  She could end up being our Republican nominee for state treasurer. Her name is out there. She ran once before and we need Hispanics on the statewide ticket.

And if Dem Patrick Padilla wins the Dem treasurer nomination, you would have Padilla vs. Padilla. That would be interesting,

JOHN SANCHEZ-- Still hearing rumblings about a GOP primary challenge to Lt. Governor John Sanchez. One of the names you previously reported--Randy Baker--owner of ABQ's DRB Electric. Another name bandied about is Economic Development Secretary Jon Barela. As you know, there is no love lost between Sanchez and Susana. It will be interesting to see if she lets a challenge go forward. Meanwhile, Sanchez has given himself a busy schedule and is traveling across the state.

Why are some in the Susana faction so resentful of Sanchez? Maybe they dread the thought of him succeeding her some day. He is popular with the public and press and does a decent job of presiding over the state Senate. Messing with him is only going to hurt Susana.

GATOR STRIKE

Here they come, kids. The Alligator strikes on those "progressive" legislative Democrats who went along with Republican Governor Martinez's tax package that included a corporate tax cut. The news that the administration gave lawmakers bad numbers on the impact of the bill has the Gators teeth especially sharp. A sample from the email:

I guess Senate Majority Whip Tim Keller, House Speaker Ken Martinez and State Reps Brian Egolf and Moe Maestas are not the "masters of the deal" they appeared to be (or tried to sell us) at the legislative session. Remember when they were boasting about this tax deal? Trying to be grown-up bi-partisan legislators? Better go back and delete those Tweets and Facebook posts, boys! Blame needs to be spread around for this mess. Blaming (Department of Finance and Administration Secretary Tom) Clifford for handing out bad numbers is convenient for the Dems, but believing Clifford and trusting this administration really makes these junior Dems look like punks.

Does that Gator mean these Dems were "punked"? Well, the blame game is alive and well....

Blog reader and movie reviewer Eric Lucero is back at the movies for the weekend and into darkness with Star Trek:

Star Trek: Into Darkness (4 Stars out of 5) is the summer's first film entrant to finally blast into our Universe. I happily advise you to see the 3D version while viewing the latest adventures of the intrepid crew of the USS Enterprise. It will blow your mind, even if you are not a fan.

This well-produced and directed Sci-Fi epic by pioneering director J. J. Abrams is the much anticipated follow up to the successful re-boot of the original movie franchise based on Gene Rodenberry’s 1960's TV series. It achieved cult status and this 12th movie installment may very well become the best and most profitable one yet. 

Fans outside of North America have already seen Captain Kirk’s (Chris Pine) response to the villainous military terrorist, Khan Noonien Singh. Hard core fans of the TV series will remember “Khan” as portrayed by the late Ricardo Montalban. The rest of crew reprises their roles. This is the 23rd century world of the ‘Federation.’ Enough said!

Thanks for stopping by this week. Reporting from Albuquerque, I'm Joe Monahan.

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Clifford & Guv (Journal)

This isn't a case of egg on the face--it's an entire omelet. When it comes to the hyper-controversial tax cut package passed in the final frenetic seconds of the 2013 legislative session, the state's top budget official pulls an Emily Litella from Saturday Night Live and says "Never Mind!"

Well, the Alligators warned us that all sorts of creepy crawlers would be coming out into the light in the aftermath of the rushed passage of the corporate tax cut. But not many of them suspected that Tom Clifford, the head of the state Department of Finance and Administration and Governor Martinez chief budget guru would be the one revealing some of them.

Clifford told a stunned Legislative Finance Committee that the information he gave legislators on the big tax bill during their near-panic to get the deal done was based on--get this--another version of the bill. It turns out the tax cut package is going to cost the state a whole lot more than Mr, Clifford and the other fiscal hawks at the Capitol had earlier told us and lawmakers.

Tom says he "apologizes" for his mistake. And that always makes taxpayers feel better, doesn't it? Not.
This tax package--touted as a panacea for the state's ever deepening economic woes--is turning out to be a political tar baby. Dems who voted for it are accused of caving in to the Governor. Some of them could get primary challenges for it next year. Democratic House Speaker Kenny Martinez has had the first year of his  speakership marred by his over eagerness to ram the bill through and now faces trouble in his House Dem caucus. And now even the Republican administration is taking hits.

If passage of the bill was based on erroneous information, shouldn't Martinez and the Legislature redo the package? Well, that's how it works in the real world, but not Santa Fe. When they get egg on their suits up there, they just send the dry cleaning bill to Mr. and Mrs. New Mexico.

REALLY, TOM?

Clifford's notable faux pas strained credulity for a number of readers. Among them is ABQ attorney Jeff Baker who said Tom and his enablers in the press deserve all the brickbats thrown at them:

Governor Martinez may have a skimpy legislative record to campaign on next year, but while the Dems try to figure out who would be a good nominee, the Guv's spin machine is in full gear, doing its best to put some meat on Susana's legislative bones. Here are some statements from her latest fund-raising letter, along with blog analysis:

This session, we did something many thought impossible--we cut taxes and passed what they are calling the most significant tax reform in a generation.

Who are "they?"

The New Mexico Jobs Package cuts the business tax rate from 7.6 percent to 5.9 percent. That rate makes us much more competitive and will help grow jobs.

Okay, so should we expect in November of 2014 (election time) to have had a bunch of new corporations locate here? And if they haven't, should we then repeal the corporate income tax cut?

But we still have a lot of work left to do. The majority Democrats in the legislature continued the failed practice of giving driver’s licenses to illegal immigrants. This is a dangerous law and I will continue to fight to repeal it.

See our report below on how more states are actually liberalizing driver's license laws for undocumented immigrants.

In a little over two years, we have accomplished a great deal: In a bipartisan manner, we eliminated the largest structural budget deficit in state history--without raising taxes.

What "structural deficit" might that be? Much of the shortfall was tackled by Governor Richardson and the Legislature before Susana took office--and it included a tax increase. Also, we see Susana is no longer calling the structural deficit "$450 million." Is that because the claim can't be backed up?

(The Governor) provided A-B-C-D or F letter grades for public schools. Cut Governor’s office staff, fired chefs and cut Governor’s residence budget by 55%, and sold the state’s luxury jet. Allowed pensions to be taken from corrupt elected officials convicted of corruption. Prohibited corrupt individuals from contracting with the state.

Okay, those may not be all that earth shaking, but they at least they are accurate.

THEN AND NOW

We took a look at our 2010 Election Eve column regarding Martinez's likely win and we have to say so far it has played out pretty much as we expected and predicted: From that Nov. 1, 2010 blog:

If she wins, as the polls indicate she will, Martinez, at least for her first two years, will be in charge of downsizing state government while not dismantling the safety net that is essential to hundreds of thousands citizens in one of the nation's most poverty-ridden states. That sounds more painful than bold, but pain doesn't make a very good campaign slogan.

DIVERSION NO MORE?

The big diversion the Governor has put before the public for three years is her quest to repeal the issuance of driver's licenses for undocumented immigrants. Her political team has attempted to demonize Dem legislators who oppose the repeal, but the times they are a changin' and we wonder if the repeal issue will have legs beyond the Republican base as we approach the '14 campaign.

The news:

Gone are the days when New Mexico and Washington were the only states to issue driver's licenses to immigrants in the country illegally. Last week, the governors of Oregon and Maryland signed bills that will allow residents without proof of immigration status to obtain driver's licenses. Illinois authorized a driver's license law for illegal immigrants earlier this year. 

Colorado legislators approved a similar bill, though no Republicans voted for it. Colorado's governor, Democrat John Hickenlooper, has not said whether he will sign the bill...Rhode Island, Connecticut and Washington, D.C., are considering expanding their driver's license laws to include those without proof of immigration status.

Martinez has tried and failed in three legislative sessions and one special session to repeal the licenses. She appeared to be eying a compromise on the issue before the '13 session, but it didn't happen.

The more public fatigue that develops over the repeal, the better for the Dems who desperately need to have a conversation about jobs and income if they are going to bring down those 60 percent approval ratings of the GOP Governor and Mayor.

A BEAR TRAP?

Jon Hendry

Jon Hendry. head of the NM union for film, stage and TV workers, thinks the Dems need to stop their infighting over the passage of Governor Martinez's corporate income tax cut--a cut he supported as the bill also contained tax incentives for the film and TV industry. His argument:

In all these discussions about the last minute tax deal, including the robo calls and the finger pointing, we’re falling into the bear trap set for us by (Martinez political adviser) Jay McCleskey.

We’re ignoring what happened to the surplus. For three years this Governor has racked up multimillion dollar budget surpluses on the backs of public employees and educators. The unfilled state jobs have now gone from a problem to a crisis. Many departments are so severely understaffed that they can’t even function--the Dept. of Workforce Solutions being a prime example. The projection for this year is another surplus of over $100 million even with the tax adjustments.

As long as they have us talking about what happened, we aren’t talking about what should be happening with this money. I am going to propose  some constitutional amendments that require funded positions be filled and any surplus be placed into a trust fund for priorities such as education

Let’s not allow the Governor’s political people to drive our agenda. This is our money; it needs to be spent where it will make the most difference, not only to our members but to all New Mexicans.

LUCKY'S IN

Luicano "Lucky Varela

Santa Fe State Rep. Lucky Varela, the subject of endless Alligator speculation about his re-election plans for 2014, announces he will seek a 14th two year term from his Santa Fe area district.

He's 78 and  a health episode he had at the Capitol last year had speculation swirling that he could end his career. That's what happened with ABQ Dem State Rep. Kiki Saavedra this week. He announced he would retire at the end of his current term.

Varela says he feels fine and his son, Jeff, adds:

Your Alligators my be waiting for awhile on whether "Lucky" Varela will be retiring from the Legislature soon! Rep. Varela is in good health and is as tuned into NM State Government as ever before! As Chairman of the LFC and Vice-Chair of HAFC..

The Alligators will wait, Jeff, but remember it is the Gators who are making these Roundhouse veterans disclose to the press early their re-election intentions.

Varela, chairman of the Legislative Finance Committee is also deputy chairman of the powerful House Appropriations committee chaired by Saavedra. Presumably, he would move up to chair if he wins re-election next year--a likely prospect. But let's see if any Dem primary foe emerges who thinks it's time for Lucky to step aside. That's what happened to the late Speaker Ben Lujan in the twilight of his service. A young Dem nearly knocked him off in a primary. That Dem--Carlos Trujillo--did eventually take the Lujan seat.

Santa Fe can moan all they want about the Alligators being ageist. But age is an issue. Hey, Cardinals of the Roman Catholic Church don't get to vote for Pope after they reach 80. We don't think Lucky is likely to draw a primary challenger this year, but all bets are off for 2016. There is a younger generation that wants and deserves a seat at the table.

THE BOTTOM LINES

We blogged in a first draft Tuesday that southern GOP NM Congressman Steve Pearce has no announced opposition for 2014. Alamogordo attorney Leslie Endean Singh has announced she will seek the Democratic nomination for the seat....And when we broke the news Monday that longtimeABQ Dem State Rep. Kiki Saavedra would not seek re-election in 2014, we gave his age based on an incorrect entry on "Ballotpedia." Saavedera is 77....

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The news that the city of Las Cruces has joined the 100,000 plus population club is going to be welcomed by national Dems looking to take the southern congressional seat held by Republican Rep. Steve Pearce. The more voters living in the Democratic city, the better their chances of pulling off the upset. The presidential election year of 2016 is probably their next best chance when turnout surges. Alamogordo attorney Leslie Singh is an announced 2014 Dem candidate against Pearce.

The Las Cruces population numbers also reinforce the trend of New Mexico becoming increasingly citified. The rural areas are too small to attract significant economic development. Their populations--stagnant or dwindling for years--will continue down that road.

Cities tend to be liberal and with ABQ, Las Cruces and Santa Fe dominating the state, our five presidential electoral votes have become more safe for the Dems. In 2012 we were not a swing state, with the presidential candidates ignoring us. It appears that will again be the case in '16...

The Las Crucus population numbers also bring to mind the matter of water. Contrary to the Cassandras, New Mexico is not going to dry up and blow away. However, some rural towns and villages may fall off the map in the decades ahead. Water rights will--and must--find their way to the state's population centers. The loser will be agriculture. Already, ranches and farms are disappearing because of the severe drought. Those displaced are moving to the cities or out of state.

While Las Cruces has busted the 100k mark, the state's overall population growth is barely moving. It has become stagnant--like the economy.

People continue to move to the cities and away from the rural areas, accounting for a good chunk of the population growth of the cities. And what you see is what you may get for some time. With no major economic drivers on the horizon (with the possible exceptions of the NM Spaceport and oil and gas) the state motto of "It grows as it goes" may have to be rewritten as "It slows as it goes."

THE PHANTOM KNOWS

A reader calling themselves the "ABQ Phantom" writes of the city's econ scene:

It's not surprising that the city Economic Development Director John Garcia  boasts about the increased interest of businesses moving to Albuquerque. That's all he and Mayor Berry have to brag about. I don't thing they have brought a single new company to Albuquerque during their tenure. I don't recall one business that they have recruited to our city. I do recall BernalIilo County bringing in a beverage company to the South Valley and a Lowe's call center to the area, outperforming what Mayor Berry and John Garcia have done.

The question should also be asked of Susana Martinez and state Economic Development Secretary Jon Barela. How many new companies have they recruited to New Mexico during their tenure?

We suspect those questions will be asked in this year's mayoral campaign and in the '14 Guv election, but the critique of the state's economic development performance has been--shall we say--less than vigorous.

Many New Mexicans have low expectations. That explains in part why the stagnant economies in the city and state have not rocked the political scene more.

A MISCHIEVOUS AD

And take a gander at how this anonymous reader would approach the jobs issue:

I had a wry thought the other day when reading about the new horse slaughtering facility opening near Roswell, the first domestic horse slaughter house to open in the country in six years.  The story has garnered significant national attention. Unless I am mistaken, this is the first and only new industry brought to the state by Governor Martinez since she took office. Seems to me someone could make a mischievous political ad about this...

Well, that one is sure to provoke a number of "horse laughs" among the party of the Donkey.

RADICAL TIM KELLER?

Keller

Is ABQ Dem State Senator Tim Keller a "radical." So says the NM GOP as it puts up this video, apparently in response to Keller announcing that he is considering making a run for the 2014 Dem Guv nomination.

But Keller is hardly radical--at least in the eyes of mainstream voters. In fact, he has taken heat from Dems and others for supporting Republican Governor Martinez's corporate income tax cut. the video concentrates on Keller's pro-union views, but that's hardly a Scarlett letter in the major cities of the state. Still, you have to give the R's credit for shooting at any potential target of Susana's and you have to give credit to Keller for being worthy of the attention.

By the way, Keller, 35, registered as a Republican as a teen and later became a Dem.

Speaking of that corporate tax cut, the Center for Civic Policy, a left-leaning group generally favorable toward Dems is unloading on House Speaker Kenny Martinez for ushering through that tax cut in the final minutes of the recent legislative session. They put out a robo call against Martinez's action. Here's a partial transcript of the call sent into homes in Martinez's Grants, NM area district:

...If you live in Grants or anywhere in Cibola County, get ready for a tax increase or a cut in services. Here’s why: Representative Ken Martinez used his power as Speaker to ram through a package of massive corporate tax giveaways through the legislature without allowing any debate. It’s a policy endorsed by Republican Governor Susana Martinez. Now big corporations will get over $215 million in tax cuts and Ken Martinez and the Governor are making you pay for it. The package cuts money used by cities and counties to pay for community services like law enforcement and senior centers. Call Representative Martinez...Tell him he should be looking out for folks here in New Mexico, not big corporations.

The group put out another robo call into the ABQ area district of Dem State Rep. Ed Sandoval, That one praised the chair of the House Taxation and Revenue Committee for voting against the corporate tax cut.

NO MORE FOOTBALL?

New NMSU President Carruthers raised the possibility of dropping football as the cost of the under performing program grows, along with higher student tuition and fees. Could that possibility be entertained at UNM? Should it?....

Should the University of New Mexico student body have a nonbinding vote on whether to drop football from its athletic roster? Maybe that sounds outrageous, but it could come to that as escalating student fees to support UNM athletics draw more scrutiny and ire:

...Students who are protesting the UNM regents’ decision last month are not focusing on the rise in tuition (though they’re not happy about that, either)...They’re furious that, once again, the regents ignored their formal and solicited recommendation to not increase the fee that students pay to support athletics. Last month, the regents approved an increase that doubled the student athletics fee in the span of two years, boosting it by $33.45 (following an increase of $50 last year), bringing the per-person expense to $165.20, which will net athletics an additional $900,000 per year. Both of these changes went against the recommendations of the Student Fee Review Board.

Current college rules don't allow UNM to drop football and focus more on the popular Lobo basketball team, but we're floating the idea because we sense that in the years ahead something is going to have to give in a low-income state like ours. Having a vote by the student body would give us an early gauge on where things stand today.

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Carruthers

You probably know that former GOP New Mexico Governor Garrey Carruthers will make a handsome paycheck of $385,000 a year as the new president of New Mexico State University, but you may not know that while serving as head of the NMSU biz school Carruthers has sat on the board of directors of Molina Health Care and made major money doing so.

Public records show he has been awarded 25,582 shares of Molina since being named to the company's board. The shares closed at $36.98 on the NYSE Friday. That would value Carruthers' holdings at nearly $1 million or $946,000 to be precise.

The stock has been on a tear the past year--like many others--and has more than doubled in price. We don't know when Carruthers is eligible to cash in his holdings.

Carruthers began his service on the Molina board in February 2012. On May 2--just days before he became NMSU President--Molina reports awarding Carruthers stock grants valued at $411,000.

His new five year contract with the NMSU Regents says he must get their permission for any outside employment--like being a member of the Molina board for which he was compensated $52,000 in 2012, according to public records.

Before joining NMSU Carruthers was president of Cimarron Health Plan. According to a 2010 news report:

Molina insures 1.5 million Medicaid and Medicare recipients in 10 states, with 91,000 members in New Mexico. It is based in California and entered the New Mexico market in 2004, when it acquired the Cimarron Health Plan operation.

The Carruthers Molina connection has not been mentioned in media accounts, but there has been mention made that there is no "buy out" for Carruthers if he should leave NMSU before his contract expires. But with a cool million or so waiting for him, that wouldn't seem much of a worry for the 73 year old Garrey. He had a nice payday when Cimarron was sold and now in his golden years, he's scored another nice one.

NO SAAVEDRA DYNASTY

Rep. Saavedra

Kiki Saavedra, 77, and is one of the longest serving members of the state House of Representatives as well as chairman of the powerful House Appropriations Committee, will not seek re-election to another two year term next year. That comes directly to us from a family member who told us of the lawmaker's intentions weeks before last week's mishap involving one of his sons.

And it does not appear a family member will try to succeed Kiki in the ABQ South Valley area seat that the Democrat was first elected to in 1976.

Saavedra's son, Randy Saavedra, had his name tossed about as a possible successor to his legendary dad, but his hopes--if he had any--were quashed last week when he was busted for his third DWI. That made headlines because Randy, 41, is a public official--on the staff of Sandoval County District Attorney Lemuel Martinez as a programs director.

We are still awaiting word on whether Santa Fe State Rep. Lucky Varela--the deputy chair of the powerful appropriations committee--will seek another term in '14. He is close to 80, had a health episode at the recent session of the Legislature and may decide now is the time to give it up after decades of service. The retired state employee was first elected in 1986.

Kiki and Lucky would have no problem getting re-elected. Both remain highly popular in the city and the Roundhouse.

State Rep. Patty Lundstrom is positioning herself for the chairmanship in the event Lucky joins Kiki in hanging up his spurs and assuming the Dems retain control of the House after the '14 election.

TRANSFER AWAY

Luján.& McMillan

From Washington, northern Democratic Congressman Ben Ray Lujan reacts to a letter on the Friday blog from Dr. Henry Casso that the state's congressional delegation work on tech transfer from the state's two national laboratories:

I couldn’t agree more with the reader that technology transfer has the potential to be a key component to economic growth and job creation in New Mexico...Last Congress, I founded the Technology Transfer Caucus in the House in order to draw attention to this issue and this year I am a co-chair of the Science and National Labs Caucus. 

During the last Congress, I also held a summit in Santa Fe to bring together local stakeholders and discuss strategies to expand opportunities to transfer technology from the labs to the marketplace. Last month, I introduced legislation to make it easier for local businesses to partner with the labs to bring new innovations to market and create new business ventures...

Just last week I met with Los Alamos Director McMillan to discuss efforts to enhance tech transfer at Los Alamos. I will continue to work with him, as well as Director Hommert at Sandia Labs, the Department of Energy, and my colleagues in Congress to promote tech transfer and the benefits that it can have for New Mexico. But...state and local governments, as well as organizations in the regional entrepreneurial system, must also be key contributors. New Mexico has great potential, but we all need to work together to turn this potential into fully realized economic benefits, and improved coordination is essential...

HISPANO POWER

Imagine if Hispanics who vote heavily Democratic popped their turnout by just a couple of more percentage points in New Mexico. Take a look:

The ABQ jobs crisis is far from over. That was made abundantly clear this week when 6,400 job seekers sought 400 jobs at the ABQ Downs Racetrack and Casino which will open a new facility this summer.

These are mainly low-skill jobs--slot operators, valets and the like. It is another example of how those without college degrees are having the most difficult time landing employment in the city's stagnant economy.

Earlier this year Target opened a new store in ABQ's uptown and over 7,000 applied for a couple of hundred jobs, most of which paid in the $9 an hour range.

If there's any topic that deserves intense and passionate debate in the upcoming mayoral campaign it's what we are going to do with the thousands of semi-skilled workers who need jobs but can't find any.

COOL THE HAPPY TALK

Happy talk and wishful thinking aren't going to get us out of our plight, but we are getting plenty of that. The latest comes from a state-funded outfit called the NM Partnership whose president and CEO is Steve Vierck and ABQ economic development director John Garcia.

Perhaps out of a sense of desperation over the never-ending economic blues being sung here, they seem to be saying that because more companies have recently expressed an interest in possibly relocating here, the economy is picking up and our jobs depression is about to end.

The partnership has seen its average number of prospects increase from a low of just two in March of 2012 to eight for the month of April. About 10 percent of those companies, said, on average, will move to or expand in New Mexico. “They’re all a work in progress, but it continues to be a pressing need to accelerate the state’s diversification from federal government jobs,” Vierck said. “Our fist push is jobs and investment. It’s been flat.”

Let's state the obvious: The economy will pick up here when companies actually move here not because they are "considering" it. All kinds of companies that are doing well outside of New Mexico are planning expansions and moves. That's because the economy elsewhere is picking up.

The extra spin Vierck and Garcia put on this is that the controversial tax cut package passed in the final, frantic moments of  the '13 legislative session is responsible for this increased curiosity about New Mexico. Again, all we can say is show us the money--and more specifically the signed deals where companies are going to move here because of that tax package. We're not holding our breath. And we advise Messrs. Vierck and Garcia to do the same or else risk turning blue.

DIVERSIFY TO WHAT?

One other note. Why is the NM Partnership insistent on saying we need to "diversify" away from federal government jobs? Why are they and their far-right media allies so cavalier in throwing in the towel on the fundamental economic building block of this state for over 60 years? And that still is.

Again, we ask, where is the fight, the determination to protect what we have and also expand our private sector? Why are these goals seen as mutually exclusive in certain quarters? Is it based on an emotional resentment of government of any kind and not on what is best for our state's future?

Is the plan to replace federal government jobs that pay $80,000 a year with slot machine operators at the ABQ racetrack that pull down $9 an hour? Or are we going to bring in more $10 an hour call center jobs to replace those federal jobs that are viewed with such disdain by extreme elements in the state economic development community?

Let's put it this way: What is the percentage of private sector businesses in this state that receive zero contracts from the Federal, state or local governments? How many of them would be put out of business if they did not have those contracts? We'll wait for the NM Partnership to get back to us on that, but, again, we won't hold our breath.

FIGHT OR PERISH

Here's what we're talking about. At the risk of engaging in our own version of wishful thinking, we see Governor Martinez, seeking re-election next year, as perhaps beginning to see the light on the importance of this state's federal funding and expending some political capital to protect it:

...Martinez is putting pressure on the feds now that a radioactive waste cleanup is in trouble at Los Alamos National Laboratory. The U.S. Department of Energy promised the project would be complete by June of next year...But now it appears the deadline will not be met unless the lab gets tens of millions of dollars in additional funding...More than 100 jobs at LANL are on the line...the Department of Energy requested an additional $40 million to help complete the LANL cleanup....The governor is backing that request and sent out a letter to US lawmakers, both Democrats and Republicans, urging them to approve the funding...The governor says she has personally called the Department of Energy and also spoke with Vice President Joe Biden about securing additional funds for the cleanup.

Martinez actually showed up at Los Alamos to talk about the risk to the federal funding and allowed her face to be associated with the story.

Welcome aboard, Governor, we've been waiting for you.

And from Senator Udall who is also seeking re-election next year:

U.S. senators from Wyoming and New Mexico (Enzi and UDall) said they plan to roll out legislation this week to restore about $110 million in cuts to a federal minerals payment program that hit their states the hardest...New Mexico faces a loss of about $25 million....

The ABQ Journal's DC reporter added:

The normally mild-mannered senator seemed to get a bit hot under the collar as he maintained that the federal government has no right to the money.

Exactly. That is, unless you believe the diversification Utopians have a plan to replace that $25 million with private sector development.

THE BOTTOM LINES

In these uncertain times there is indeed the possibility that New Mexico will face continued erosion of its federal funding, but the politicians of this state owe their people a fight--not a white flag of surrender labeled "diversification" that lets them avoid responsibility and  blame "Washington" for everything gone wrong.

The message for this Governor and our congressional delegation in these most perilous times is simple:

Look in the mirror, put on your game face on and come out swinging.

Thanks for stopping by this week. Reporting from Albuquerque, I'm Joe Monahan.

This is the home of New Mexico politics.

E-mail your news and comments. (jmonahan@ix.netcom.com)

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(c)NM POLITICS WITH JOE MONAHAN 2013 
Not for reproduction without permission of the author