Crunch time turned to reality time for Big Bill last night as this most pragmatic of politicians signaled a significant shift in his campaign strategy, gamely defending front-runner Hillary Clinton and setting off renewed speculation among the Alligators that Richardson is now lobbying for the Veep slot or Secretary of State position in a Clinton administration. Some also said they see Richardson inching closer to a run for the US Senate in New Mexico. Here's the money graph from the report on the MSNBC debate:

With the crescendo of criticism of the former first lady at a fever pitch, New Mexico Gov. Bill Richardson at one point questioned the "holier-than-thou" attitude of her critics.

"It's bothering me because it's pretty close to personal attacks that we don't need. We need to be positive in this campaign...Richardson said. (Video clip here.)

The Governor's arduous defense of Hillary was not lost on the political pros who noted it comes just two months before the opening Iowa caucuses and with Bill stalled out in the polls.

"Sending a warm signal to Clinton counts more now rather than two months from now when she could have the nomination nailed down," commented one of our veteran insiders.

LOVE IS IN THE AIR

The Hillary-Bill love fest actually started earlier in the day when the Guv filed papers in New Hampshire for that state's primary.

"I think that Senators Obama and Edwards should concentrate on the issues and not on attacking Senator Clinton," said Big Bill.

Sounds like he's rehearsing for Second Banana, doesn't it?

Looking at the debate through a different prism, the national press was of no help to Bill:

Richardson struggled to distinguish himself, attempting...to tout himself as the lone chief executive on stage but to little effect. Richardson does have perhaps the deepest resume of any candidate...but really struggles within the parameters of a debate to effectively convey that to voters." Analyzed the Washington Post's political blogger.

Realism has defined the political career of Bill Richardson. Tuesday night in Philadelphia he began the process of hedging his bets. Stay tuned.

CERVANTES STARTS HIS ENGINES

Back on the home front, the jockeying is far from over in what must be the most politically significant year in the state's post-WWII history. Word comes to us that Democratic State Representative Joe Cervantes of Doña Ana County is set to join the race for the southern US House seat being vacated by the GOP's Steve Pearce who is now running for the Domenici senate seat.

Cervantes emails us that he will make a formal announcement after the Las Cruces city election next Tuesday. He is not personally confirming he will run, but our reliable sources report he has told close associates he is going to make the run. Cervantes has a Hamlet aspect to his personality, so we'll leave a little crack in the door for a late change of course, otherwise consider him a go.

Cervantes will join Hobbs oilman Harry Teague, Doña Ana County Commissioner Bill McCamley and Al Kissling in the Dem race for the 2nd CD. Republican Ed Tinsley, a restaurant chain owner, is soliciting campaign contributions and is expected to formally enter the race in a week or so. There are no announced GOP candidates yet.

Cervantes and Teague have the personal wealth to wage battle, but as the lone Hispanic in the race Cervantes will go off as the front-runner. And not just because he is Hispanic, but because he is a practiced campaigner and well-spoken attorney. Teague is also savvy, having been twice elected a Lea County Commissioner.

The Cervantes camp was already framing the race against Teague with this first shot across the wealthy oilman's bow from a Joe booster:

"Harry will spend a lot of money but Dems will look very unfavorably on his ties to Steve Pearce and oil. Also, Harry cannot win a general election by outspending a Repub opponent, and Dems really want to win this one."

And what say you, Harry?

MULLING OVER MARTY

The Alligators were scratching their heads Tuesday when they got word that the US Senate campaign of Dem ABQ Mayor Marty Chavez had leaked a poll to the Capitol Hill newspaper, Roll Call, (subscription required) that showed him beating ABQ GOP Congresswoman Heather Wilson in a head-to-head race for the US Senate by just one point. The newspaper reported:

The survey, conducted by Lake Research Partners, had Chavez in front of Wilson 41 percent to 40 percent, with 19 percent undecided. The poll found Chavez leading Wilson among independent voters 48 percent to 30 percent. The survey of 400 likely voters was conducted Oct. 8-11 and had an error margin of 4.9 points.

The reason the Gators were baffled is that they did not see how the poll advances Chavez's prospects. In a Democratic state in what is shaping up to be a big Dem year, they reason Chavez should be running well ahead, and rather than advancing his cause the numbers will just cause more "Anybody But Chavez" campaigning by national Dems in D.C. They continue to lobby NM Light Guv Diane Denish to get in the race.

The kicker here is that the Chavez poll makes no mention of how he would fare against GOP Congressman Steve Pearce who the insiders think is the early front-runner to take the Senate nomination, not Wilson. Pearce beat Chavez 56% to 35% in a SurveyUSA poll conducted earlier this month. Heather beat Marty 48% to 44% in the same poll.

Chavez's poll, rather than scaring anyone out of the race, again raises the question of why he is so weak with the state's Democratic base. Among independents, the poll has Chávez leading 48%-30%. His right-leaning mayoral administration is certainly the paramount reason for Dem disaffection.

LADY IN WAITING

Meanwhile, Light Guv Di told the Denver Post she will make a decision regarding a Senate run in the next 10 days. She is receiving nearly unanimous advice in New Mexico not to go and keep her eye on the Governor's job. But the lobbying from D.C. Dems is intense. They are fearful that Chavez can't make it and that Di is their best hope to switch the NM seat to the D's and help reach the national goal of 60 Dem US Senators needed to advance legislation.

All of this, of course, leads us back to Big Bill, whose popularity remains high in the state and who would be difficult to beat. His presidential campaign is going to hold up the Senate race here, whether the national Dems like it or not. Only the unexpected--a Denish entry--will start the Senate clock without the Big Guy. Right now Marty Chavez is Big Bill's biggest booster for the Presidency because if Bill falters and goes for Senate, it would be Chavez facing an 800 pound gorilla. And you know who wins those face-offs.

Home of the Exclusives! Home of New Mexico politics! Email your news and comments and help us keep the politics coming.

(c)NM POLITICS WITH JOE MONAHAN 2007
Not for reproduction without permission of the author

Crunch time for Big Bill appears to be coming sooner rather than later. The decision to move the Iowa Presidential Caucus from January 14 to January 3 will rob the long shot hopeful of crucial days to make his case, time he seems to need as a summer long anti-war offensive has failed to propel his campaign and rumors of a possible US Senate candidacy contribute to a malaise that is keeping the NM Governor from moving ahead. The influential insider publication National Journal Monday summed up Bill's problems this way:

"The polls show Richardson holds steady in Iowa, which seems to be his lone shot at this thing. But the rumor that he's going to eventually quit the race to pursue a Senate seat may eventually take its toll (it already has on the buzz front.) The issue we have with Richardson is that he's a terrible liberal. It's not in the guys DNA. He's trying to become the anti-war candidate but doesn't seem like a credible messenger."

For those who have followed Richardson's career, that's pretty insightful stuff. He has made it a point to carve out a centrist reputation. It has always been where he is most comfortable and he seems less authentic when he steers from that course.

In New Hampshire Monday, Dem Dennis Kucinich, who has been characterized as a fringe candidate but who has a longstanding and strong identity as an anti-war liberal, was trumpeting his showing in the latest Rasmussen Poll. He scores 7% support, the same as Big Bill who has raised millions more than US Rep. Kucinich but who has now said goodbye to double digits in all early state Prez polls. The New Hampshire primary is now expected to come January 8, just five days after Iowa.

The die is cast. Big Bill must somehow ignite anti-war passions among Iowa and New Hampshire Democrats if he is to have a chance of breaking through, or the front runners must make the big mistake. As long as neither of those circumstances is occurring, the Senate buzz around the Governor will only grow louder.

TINSLEY WATCH

You think they would be swarming, but a full two weeks after GOP US Rep. Steve Pearce announced he would vacate his southern congressional seat to run for the US Senate, not one R has officially announced their candidacy to replace him. This, even though the seat has belonged to the R's since 1980. Insiders say restaurant chain owner Ed Tinsley is quietly making preparations for a run and that Earl Greer of T or C is possible. But the lack of a group of heavyweights already out campaigning for the seat is disturbing to R's who worry that the Dems may finally get their shot next year.

Tinsley can self-finance his campaign and that makes him a likely front runner or maybe a lone runner. R's ought to hire a doctor to watch over Ed because if something happens to him we may have to start a "draft somebody" movement down there. Can you believe it?

LOOKING THE PART

Don't underestimate the Max Factor factor in Campaign '08. That applies especially to the race for US Senate where GOP US Reps Steve Pearce and Heather Wilson are hoping to graduate from the "House of the People" to the "World's Most Exclusive Club" where you are one of a special 100.

Photog Mark Bralley has sent back from the trail fresh pics of our R Senate competitors that speak to the higher status both seek. Click on them to enlarge and read on for our "fashionable" analysis.

Pearce, who you usually see in a starched white shirt and dark blazer or suit, sports a more relaxed and colorful look in this shot taken over the weekend at a gathering of Republican women. Pearce has been criticized as a colorless personality who can remind you of a mean uncle. But with the light gray blazer and friendly orange shirt and tie, Pearce becomes nice Uncle Steve. Not everyone will like the color palette (too much orange) but it's a start. In this pic with the new duds, his David Letterman gap-toothed smile emanates approachability, not the remoteness that one often perceives from Pearce.

There will be plenty of time for the white shirts and boring ties. Pearce's bald pate gives him more than enough senatorial seriousness. He needs a more friendly and accessible look. He has it here. Was it planned or unplanned?

HEATHER'S FASHION HINTS

This shot of Heather, which we ran when she announced, is also a keeper. Dowdy Heather has been banished as she steps up her look for a US Senate climb. The sky blue suit is a good color for her and she is definitely looking more Nordstrom's than Dillard's as she grabs for the brass ring. The lapis colored earrings set off a spark of femininity without compromising authority. The make-up is camera ready and has a richer look.

Heather also has taken the de rigueur American flag lapel pin up a notch. This one is composed of diamonds and ruby colored stones. Are they real? No matter. With her assured smile and freshly prepped hair, we're definitely ready for lunch with Senator Clinton. Now wouldn't that make for a picture?

THE BOTTOM LINES

Maybe we were foggy, but Monday we confessed to being confused about how GOP State Rep. W.C. "Dub" Williams acquired his nickname. Thanks to reader Amy Horowitz, among others, we were pointed in the right direction. "He's W.C. Williams as in "Dub-ul-yew C." Dub, for short." explained Amy. Of course, President Bush is sometimes nicknamed "Dubya" after his middle initial "W."

A member of the NM Legislature also emailed in with the explanation but demanded a bowl of free chicharrones in return for the help. Some things never change...

This is the home of New Mexico politics. E-mail your news and comments.

(c)NM POLITICS WITH JOE MONAHAN 2007
Not for reproduction without permission of the author

Heather's date with Dick has been set. Here's the official invitation for ABQ GOP Congresswoman Heather Wilson's November 15th D.C. fundraiser with Vice President Dick Cheney. Wilson, in a contest for the GOP US Senate nomination with fellow NM US Rep. Steve Pearce, is a self-described "moderate" who was "on vacation" when Cheney visited Roswell last year for a fund-raiser. Today she is showing no hesitation embracing Cheney who commands little national political support, but still has mojo with the GOP base. That base is going to vote in the June '08 primary. At the start of this campaign Pearce's conservative credentials are intact and Wilson's are somewhat tattered.

Pearce's campaign says Cheney has called the congressman and offered to do an event for their guy and that Cheney's attendance at Heather's $2300 a person Capitol Hill Club reception and photo op should not be taken as a sign that he is endorsing her. The event was actually set up originally for Heather's House re-election bid.

Wilson is trying to entice wealthy NM R's to fly to D.C. for her Cheney bash. She is offering them, among other things, her personal tour of the Capitol. Will she concentrate on the Senate side?

PEARCE'S PLEA

It took Steve Pearce a mere 72 hours to dash off his first fundraising pitch after giving word that he would run for the seat being vacated by Pete Domenici. The Alligators also scored for us with Pearce, acquiring a copy of the October 19th letter for you here. In it he takes an indirect jab at Heather saying, "...this is a time when our country needs leaders who will stand up for real conservative principles."

Pearce will try to keep Wilson on the defensive by saying he's the R's true conservative. He will be arguing this even as the larger electorate moves increasingly towards the center or the left. If he beats Heather for the nomination, are we then going to see the unveiling of a "new" Steve Pearce? If he wants to win, you will.

THE FALLBACK

It is probably do or die for Wilson and Pearce. Lose the senate race and you're gone. But what if Big Bill gets in and defeats the R contender? That loss would be a lot less stinging and more expected than one to say Marty Chavez. In the case of the Guv some insider R's see Pearce perhaps surviving the hit and able to launch a campaign for the 2010 governor's race. Heather would be less likely to survive because her senate loss would be combined with her near loss, in 2006, of her ABQ congressional seat.

TAKE YOUR PICK

Last week Dick Morris, former Clinton adviser turned Fox News analyst, predicted Big Bill would be Hillary's pick for Veep if she secures the Dem Prez nod. But Sunday on "Meet the Press" veteran conservative commentator Bill Safire downplayed Bill's chances for the second slot.

Well, I was torn there, because Bill Richardson would bring a lot to the ticket, his Spanish background and all. However, he’s surprised all of us by going very strongly anti-war. Now, bring the boys home now—not the boys. Bring the troops home now. So I don’t think she could cross that bridge with him.

BOITANO'S BEEF

ABQ GOP State Senator Mark Boitano, who says he is thinking about running for the R nomination for the ABQ US House seat, thinks top Republicans are working to shut out competition in the race for the ABQ congressional seat. He sent this e-mail out to friends.

The Republican National Congressional Campaign Committee (RNCC) told my consultant that they want me out of the race because we will drain resources from the Darren White campaign. If I don't drop out, they will NOT support me in the general election against the Democrat nominee. How's that for knowing who your friends are?

It is an open secret that top R's in the state and national parties favor Sheriff White, but the RNCC says it rarely takes public stands in contested primaries. So far White is unopposed for the nomination and neither Boitano or State Rep. Janice Arnold-Jones appear likely to get in, although they are making noise. They don't want to give up their legislative seats. As for Boitano seeking support from the NRCC (it's the National Republican Congressional Committee) and finding he has no friends there, as the song says he "was looking for friends in all the wrong places."

THE BOTTOM LINES

After some back and forth over whether he would or would not, we get word that GOP State Rep. Dub Williams representing Otero and Lincoln counties is indeed going to seek re-election next year. From John Billingsley, chairman of the Otero county R's: " I personally talked to Dub today (Oct 26th) and he assured me that he and his wife Cathryn made the decision just two days ago (Oct 24th) to once again run for the District 56 seat..."

Thanks, John. Now will someone now tell us how a fella gets dubbed "Dub'?

This is the home of the exclusives and the home of New Mexico politics. Your advertising inquires are welcome. E-mail them as well as your news and comments.

(c)NM POLITICS WITH JOE MONAHAN 2007
Not for reproduction without permission of the author

Somebody hand me a broom. I have a big pile of newsroom clippings to sweep up and with the political news being non-stop since Senator Domenici announced his retirement earlier this month, I haven't had a chance to get to them .

OK. We've got the broom, so let's go...

Former State Senator Richard Romero hosted a fundraiser this week for the man who replaced him, State Senator Jerry Ortiz y Pino. Romero, who lost twice to Republican Heather Wilson for the ABQ congressional seat, thinks he may have better luck with the ABQ mayors contest. The former senate president pro tem is considering a run for that office in 2009.

NO FRIEND OF HILLARY

Our post of a Dick Morris column Thursday touting a Hillary-Big Bill ticket irritated several Clinton supporters, not because of the possibility of the New Mexico Guv getting on the Dem ticket, but because of the way we described Morris. Wrote one emailer:

I don't think it is fair to label Morris as a former Clinton adviser. ...He was booted off the '96 campaign for impropriety and immediately turned on his former bosses and into one of Fox News' best anti-Clinton commentators....

THAT POLL

Hillary fans were also emailing in about that recent quasi-scientific SurveyUSA poll showing her losing NM to R Rudy Giuliani by one point (48% to 47%) . Most pointed out that she leads Rudy nationally. True enough, but we specialize in NM so Rudy's showing against Hillary in the mock match-up drew our attention. And how about Republican McCain of Arizona scoring 50% to Hillary's 43% in New Mexico? That's more than the poll's margin of error and shows the Clinton campaign will have to earn our key swing state if she is indeed the Dem nominee.

Off the cuff, we suspect Hillary's problems here are mainly on the conservative east and southeast sides where she has been branded a liberal and where opposition to a woman president may not be insignificant. It's nothing that hard work and help from Bill, who made a special connection with working class New Mexicans, can't overcome. But it will have to be overcome.

DI'S DOUGH

Light Guv Diane Denish is raising money for a 2010 her Guv run , but is also raising funds to give to other politicos at both the federal and state levels. Her money machine is outlined in detail in this AP dispatch. The key point is that of all the committees Di has formed, none point to a run for the US senate seat.

WIVIOTT'S TOUR

On the US Senate beat, Santa Fe's Don Wiviott has been seeking the Dem nod since before Domenici announced his retirement. This week he was introducing himself to southern NM Dems. ABQ Mayor Marty Chavez has also announced for the Dem senate nod and he has put together a finance committee that includes Dem heavy hitters Jamie Koch, Ed Romero and racetrack owner Paul Blanchard.

Both Chavez and Wiviott appear safe from a Denish run, but national pressure on Big Bill to go for the Domenici senate seat will hit a fever pitch if he falters in the first few Prez primaries. Only then---perhaps sometime in late January--will we know with certainty the final field of campaign '08. Chavez also announced he has $560,000 in "pledges" for his run, not cold hard cash. Money could be on the tight side until the Richardson question is settled once and for all.

(Steve Pearce will formally announce his GOP US Senate candidacy next Friday.)

PATSY SAYS NO, REALLY

We are back to where we began the month with Patsy Madrid. She now has ruled out--finally, really, once and for all--another run for the ABQ congressional seat. At least that's what the former Dem AG said in a phone message from D.C. She told us the same a month ago, but then veered and left the door open a crack. Now she has closed it as well as the one labeled US Senate. Madrid's less than 900 vote loss to R Heather Wilson last year will go down in history as one of the tightest state contests ever. Madrid is supporting John Edwards for President and sometimes traveling on his behalf. She also has a well-paying legal job.

Madrid was not expected to run, especially when news broke here that her '06 pollster, Celinda Lake, had signed with Michelle Lujan Grisham. Also, Dems were divided on whether Patsy should make another go of it. The race this time features Martin Heinrich, Grisham and Jon Adams, none of whom have yet captured the hearts or imaginations of ABQ Dems, leaving the race wide open with Heinrich and Grisham in the top tier.

WHITE'S RUN

GOP Insiders inform that Sara Lister, a veteran GOP fund-raiser for Senator Domenici, is switching hats and will manage the congressional campaign of ABQ Bernalillo County Sheriff Darren White. They also report that Heidi Fuller, another longtime Pete fund-raiser, will also work in the White campaign.

By the way, if White manages to get elected to the House seat next year, the Bernalillo county commission would name a replacement to fill out his term as sheriff which runs until 2010. That means the sheriff's post would very likely go to a Dem.

Home of the exclusives. Home of New Mexico politics. Email your news and comments.

(c)NM POLITICS WITH JOE MONAHAN 2007
Not for reproduction without permission of the author

Schmidly
The president of the University of New Mexico, Dr. David Schmidly, is now officially a New Mexican. We can say that with authority because he has passed the official state residency requirement for highly paid public employees--giving money to Big Bill. It turns out that less than a month after it was announced that he would take on the handsomely compensated job of UNM Prexy, Schmidly coughed up a $2300 contribution to Big Bill's presidential campaign. Some woud call it a rite of passage as everything that moves in this state is subject to the tentacles of La Politica.

Schmidly, a Democrat, gave this explanation for donating to the Guv: "I donated to him because as I’ve met him and heard his platform and his presentation, I resonate with the man, and that’s why I donated to [him].”

Schimdly was president of Oklahoma State University before coming here. That university's student newspaper reported the Schmidly contribution and also took note of the timing of the contributions.

"According to the Opensecrets Web site, Schmidly gave his donation on March 12, which an Albuquerque newspaper reported was the same day he attended his first board of regents meeting and said he had plans to meet with Richardson later. Schmidly said he didn’t remember if he met with Richardson that day."

Four of the seven UNM regents who appointed Schmidly have contributed a combined $8,800 to Richardson’s campaign. The Guv has raised $5 million in his small home state for his Prez campaign.

Will he send his staff trick or treating to get even more? Will they knock on President Schmidly's door? After all, his base salary is nearly $600,000 a year. Maybe he can be persuaded to help other needy politicos.

For now, let's welcome President Schmidly aboard as a full-fledged resident of our Enchanted Land. Just remember, Doc, around here, your checkbook is your passport.

HILL & BILL?

The idea of a Hill and Bill ticket hasn't been talked up much lately, but national pundit and former Clinton adviser Dick Morris predicts a Clinton-Richardson ticket for '08. The bad news for Bill? In recent years, the Morris track record has been muddy.

PETE & HEATHER

Senator Pete continues to keep the door open a crack on endorsing GOP Congresswoman Heather Wilson in her US senate primary race with fellow Rep. Steve Pearce. Domenici's office said this week:

...At this point he does not plan to endorse. He expressed his hope that the primary campaign proceeds in a manner that will allow the nominee to run a strong race in the general election."

An endorsement of Pearce by Domenici is out of the question. Wilson was made by Domenici when he endorsed her in the GOP primary for her House seat in '98. The question now is whether a Domenici endorsement would help or hurt Wilson. For sure, it would be a controversial and divisive move, but it is early and political calculations by Pete and Heather will continue.

NM PREZ POLLING

Hillary beats Thompson and Romney in the SurveyUsa NM Prez poll conducted this month, but not Rudy. All the match-ups are here.

A DANIELS DIVIDE?

Nothing in La Politica is unanimous. We blogged that we did not hear any squealing over the appointment by Big Bill of ABQ trial lawyer Charlie Daniels to the NM Supreme Court seat, even though the seat he will fill belonged to a woman, the late Justice Pamela Minzner. No sooner had the cyberspace ink dried on those digits came this from a legal insider.

"Some women are steamed over the Daniels appointment. They believe it should have gone to either (judge) Linda Vanzi or Maureen Sanders. There is sentiment that Richardson "sold" the seat to the New Mexico trial lawyers to tap their not-inconsequential war chest for his campaign. Women who were supportive are abandoning the Richardson for President campaign as a result, telling campaign callers to drop them from the call list."

We heard the "seat for sale" theory making the rounds before the Daniels appointment, and there's no doubt the trial lawyers have their share of power. If the critics' concern is serious, they could make their case by getting a candidate to run against Daniels next year when he must stand for a contested election. As for Judge Vanzi, she was appointed to her ABQ district court position by Big Bill, so it's not as if she has been completely slighted.

We are the home of New Mexico politics. Email your news and comments.

(c)NM POLITICS WITH JOE MONAHAN 2007
Not for reproduction without permission of the author

Harry Teague
The muscle of New Mexico oil money will be flexed in the Democratic race for the southern congressional seat with Lea County's Harry Teague telling me he will soon personally commit a minimum of $100,000 to his primary campaign kitty and $200,000 if that's what he thinks it takes. With that cash the former two-term Lea county commissioner and owner of Eunice Well Servicing Co. in Hobbs will break open the race, putting immense pressure on Doña Ana Dem State Rep. Joe Cervantes who continues to weigh a run and cause hopeful Bill McCamley to rethink his strategy. Dem Al Kissing is also running.

Teague is a low-key player, but a sure-footed one who immediately entered the race when his Hobbs neighbor and friend, GOP US Rep. Steve Pearce, announced he would leave the seat to seek the R nomination for the US Senate seat being vacated by Pete Domenici.

Now Teague says he is about to make the big play. With one stroke of the pen he could equal what McCamley has raised all year and force Cervantes, who has wealth from a family chile growing business, to decide just how much he wants the Dem prize.

THE TEAGUE FILE

Teague may be underestimated in some Dem circles. He should not be. He is cut from the same cloth as Harold "Mud" Runnels, another self-made millionaire oilman from Lea county who was the last Dem to capture the congressional seat, serving from 1970 until his death in 1980. Veteran Dems are not concerned about Teague being media savvy. The district likes the home grown approach ala Runnels, Joe Skeen and Pearce.

Teague has nurtured his political connections. In the past few years, he and his company have donated over $60,000 to Governor Big Bill and Light Guv Denish and thousands more to other state Dem office seekers. Members of his family have also donated heavily and Teague says he has given the maximum allowed to Big Bill's Prez effort.

He goes back to the old days with Denish. She's a Hobbs native and went to school with Teague, 58, in the early 60's. She recently named Teague chairman of her transportation task force.

"In the seventh grade, I had four or five classes with her. Half the boys in school, including me, had a crush on her," He joked.

MORE INSIDER INFO

Teague describes himself as a conservative Democrat. He has also donated to the campaigns of his Republican friend and fellow oil services executive Pearce. That is not going to hurt him if he makes it to the general election.

With Republicans still without a formally announced contender and with Teague flashing his checkbook, Democratic hearts are beating faster as they ponder their southern prospects.

Rep. Cervantes is assumed to be polling. He would be a formidable challenger to Teague, but the race would be no sure thing, particularly with Teague spending heavily. Teague says he is being advised that a contested primary battle could cost in the area of $500,000 to $700,000. He will have the funds to stay in the game until the final buzzer.

Teague says he came to Hobbs from Texas with his family in 1959 and "they had nothing." He brings to the political poker game the gambler's instinct honed in the topsy-turvy oil biz and a big enough bankroll to go all night. The other players will need the same because now we're really gambling.

RAWSON WON'T GO, TINSLEY EMERGING?
Ed Tinsley
Meanwhile, fans of State Senate minority whip Lee Rawson of Dona Ana county were expressing disappointment Tuesday night as word spread across the southern congressional district that he will not seek the Pearce House seat but opt to run for re-election to the senate next year. He is expected to make an official announcement later today.

The highly regarded Rawson, who has been in the senate for twenty years, was seen as a strong player for the R's, but he is one domino the Pearce decision will apparently not tip. That leaves my Alligators looking more closely at K-Bob's restaurant chain owner Ed Tinsley.

They think Tinsley may have an inside track with the leadership of the state and national GOP. He placed second in a primary for the seat in 2002 when Joe Skeen retired, but Pearce beat Tinsley after Tinsley's residency became an issue. At the time, he had a home outside the district on Rio Grande Boulevard in Albuquerque. Still, Ed carried most of the counties, getting beat in the SE.

This time there is no incumbent and national R's may be especially warm to Tinsley because he has personal money and the coffers of the GOP congressional committee are nearly bare. Tinsley must be hoping for the luck of the draw--that no other wealthy Republicans get in the race and he could run on the cheap.

THE SECOND TIER

Phelps Anderson of Roswell also ran in the '02 GOP primary and has personal wealth, but has made little noise about another run. Aubrey Dunn III, 51, a retired banker and rancher in Chaves county, has resources but an Alligator who spoke to him Tuesday said Aubrey is a registered independent who has to switch back to the Republicans to make the run. He plans on doing so. Whether he is willing to come with the cash is unknown. Earl Greer also ran in '02, but doesn't have big bucks.

That takes the Gators back to Tinsley who says he will make a decision in a couple of weeks. He maintains a ranch in Capitan, but has a second home in Santa Fe so the residency issue could come back. But the national spotlight in which the decisions of war and peace are made has a price. All who enter must be willing to defend themselves to prove they can and will defend this great country.

CHAOS, CONFUSION AND INSANITY!

Even seasoned Alligators are submerged under a shower of intense political speculation and positioning. We've been unable to nail down initial reports that State Rep. "Dub" Williams is retiring, but the R who told us he wanted to replace him in the Lincoln-Otero district, realtor Dan Power, now says he is not running and isn't sure Williams is getting out. Williams could not be reached, but if he is retiring, he may try to keep it quiet and try to hand the seat off to someone in his circle. Power now says he is thinking about running for the Pearce House seat even though he has no money to throw at the race and no name ID! We forgive you Dan, but...

Suffice it to say, we are putting a moat up around your blog. Pretenders, wanna-bes and assorted hangers-on are not getting across that moat as we deal with the unprecedented opening of two US House seats, a US Senate seat as well as all the Legislative seats. I know everyone wants to play, but there's an admission fee to the game, or at least have a bat and ball.

Finally, what happened to Sen. Pete Campos who a northern Alligator in training said would be on the finalist list for president of this community college? Pete's name didn't make the list. It's a shame, but a Gator in training only gets one shot and if they are wrong, they get shot. Bang!

Email your news and comments and help keep the politics coming.

(c)NM POLITICS WITH JOE MONAHAN 2007
Not for reproduction without permission of the author

Celinda Lake
A reshaping of the race for the Democratic nomination for the ABQ congressional seat could be in the works. Freshly minted candidate Michelle Lujan Grisham says national pollster Celinda Lake, who worked for Dem nominee Patricia Madrid in the '06 election and who has deep ties to the politically powerful women's group, Emily's List, has been signed for Grisham's '08 effort. (Lake Research has also inked a polling deal for the US senate run of ABQ Dem Mayor Chavez. More on that below.)

The signing of Lake could be significant for Grisham not only because it is a well-regarded polling outfit, but Lake's connection could help get the candidate closer to wining credibility with Emily's List, the grassroots political network that has played a crucial role in electing women to Congress by pushing major money their way.

Lake's Web site says of her: "Lake is one of the nation's foremost experts on electing women candidates and on framing issues to women voters. American Politics calls Lake a "super-strategist"...

Madrid lost to GOP Congresswoman Heather Wilson last year by less than 900 votes. Grisham hopes to pick up where Patsy left off. Maybe Lake and company have some fresh ideas after that meat grinder of a campaign.

Emily's list does not often get involved in Democratic primaries, but it is not a rarity. For example, they recently endorsed Ann Kirkpatrick in her primary race for the northern Arizona congressional seat.

Grisham, 47, is facing off with ABQ City Councilor Martin Heinrich and former assistant attorney general Jon Adams. The June primary winner will advance to the November election. To get on that ballot a candidate will have to score 20% of the delegates at a mid-March pre-primary convention.

Heinrich jumped into the race this summer before GOP Senator Domenici retired and before Wilson announced she would leave her seat to run to replace Domenici. The councilor has raised about $300,000 for his campaign. He last reported about $180,000 on hand.

But what was once seen as an easy romp for Heinrich is now looking like a spirited battle. Insiders say if Grisham, the sole Hispanic and woman in the race thus far, can raise over $100,000 in the next several months, she could impress Emily's List enough to win their endorsement and attract major league dollars from their supporters. Having Lake as an ally in that quest can't hurt.

TEAM MARTY

Lake Research is going to do double-duty in NM. ABQ Mayor Marty Chavez says the D.C. firm will handle the polling for his Dem US senate run. Mark Fleisher who has worked with Santa Fe's Butch Maki & Associates will be campaign manager. The D.C. firm of McMahon Squier Lapp and Associates has been hired to do the TV. Armando Gutierrez of ABQ has signed up to do Hispanic outreach and Chris Brown, who has been associated with past Chavez campaigns, will consult the senate run as well.

For you adventurous types, Marty has an opening for a campaign press secretary.

CANDIDATE WATCHING

ABQ State Sen. Joe Carraro will continue to take a look at the GOP race for the ABQ congressional seat, but he is not going to give up his senate seat to do so. He will form an exploratory committee so he can raise some money and do polling.

Newly reelected ABQ City Councilor Brad Winter is also floating his name for the R congressional race. ABQ State Rep. Janice Arnold-Jones is also making noise, but no one is coming with news of money or saying they will leave the Legislature and go all in. That leaves the GOP field clear for Bernalillo County Sheriff Darren White.

Just where are all the Republicans aching for Pearce's seat? Can you believe no one has yet formally announced a candidacy? Name floating does not constitute a serious candidacy.

What are they waiting for. Polls? (Yes) A check from their grandmothers'? (Maybe) Who would have thought we would have seen such a delay in getting even one announced GOP candidate for an open congressional seat in a district friendly to the R's? As one Alligator is fond of saying: "No one gives you the power, you have to take it." They better hurry up.

Restaurant chain owner Ed Tinsley and Dona Ana State Senator Lee Rawson are prominently mentioned but they have yet to jump. (Tinsley says he is "strongly considering," will decide in "a couple of weeks" and sounds like he wants to go). Meanwhile, the Dems have three announced and serious candidates.

The enthusiasm of the Dems is as noticeable as the caution of the R's. The R's better be quicker on the jump during next year's general election campaign or for the first time since 1980 the seat could go to the Dems. Don't say we didn't tell you.

CAUTION WHEN WATCHING

We are hearing all kinds of names for the two open US House seats and still some senate candidates lurk. We blogged more of them today. Most will be nonstarters, but all will enjoy having their names listed in the blogs and papers. It's natural, but the wheat will have to be separated form the chaff, and you can count on us to do just that.

STILL KICKIN’ IT
Chavez
Fabian Chavez of the NM House of Representatives 1951-1952, the State Senate 1955-1964 and Senate Majority Leader 1961-1964, is now an Old Lion enjoying his winter years, but he still knows how to administer a butt kicking. The 1968 Dem guv nominee, now a lobbyist, recently turned back an effort by the government labor union AFSCME to pack the board of directors of the Public Employee Retirement Association (PERA) resulting in howls and scowls from AFSCME political director Carter Bundy.

Chavez, now 83 and a lobbyist for PERA, felt letting union members dominate the 12 member board would mean investment of $13 billion in PERA state employee retirement money could be invested by political whim and urged defeat of the AFSCME slate.

Despite spending over $50,000 on the campaign all three of AFSCME's candidates were defeated by state workers. That led Bundy to publicly accuse Chavez of being "unethical" and to blame the media for giving "credence to rumors."

The Bundy outburst had heads turning at the Roundhouse where wall-leaners wondered if the political director was digging his own political grave.

It wasn't a joke that Chavez came in at #4 on our list of the most powerful NM legislators since WWII compiled in July by our esteemed panel of Alligators. The PERA victory will only add to his reputation for being a master political power player. As for that outburst from caustic Carter, the Old Lion had no comment. Maybe he was busy dining on his kill.

THE BOTTOM LINES

That new Bill Richardson Presidential TV ad unveiled Monday sure looks familiar. And it is, as was pointed out by KOAT-TV political reporter Matt Grubs, among others. Much of it is a rehash of an ad Big Bill ran in his 2002 race for NM Governor against R John Sanchez. The emotional 60 second spot tells how he freed hostages from Iraq in '95. Hey, if it worked here, why not up there in Iowa?...

This is the home of New Mexico politics. Email your latest political news and comments.

(c)NM POLITICS WITH JOE MONAHAN 2007
Not for reproduction without permission of the author

Steve Pearce turned the tables on Heather Wilson by launching the first strike in the already heated contest for the GOP US senate nomination, aggressively taking the role the ABQ congresswoman has usually assumed and sparking expectations for further battle between the two NM US House Reps.

Pearce's automatic phone call into 130,000 Republican households Thursday night defending his vote to uphold President Bush's veto of SCHIP--children's health insurance program--was the kind of surprise attack and defense of hard-edged conservatism that is the trademark of New York based political consultant Arthur Finkelstein. His firm, D.C. insiders say, will be Pearce's lead consultant in the epic battle for the state's first open US senate seat since 1972.

Whether Pearce's first strike in which his campaign says 13,000 R's ended up hanging around for a conference call with the congressman was the brainchild of Finkelstein or not, his presence in the campaign is notable.

He started in '72 with Nixon, He made his name large in '94 when he managed the upset New York governor win of George Pataki over Democrat Mario Cuomo. Along the way, he was credited with making "liberal" a dirty word. He is also known for hammering home a single message and doing it with great repetition. But he loses, too. His efforts to derail Hillary Clinton's New York Senate campaign went nowhere.

Pearce used Finkelstein to consult his '06 campaign against Democrat Al Kissling, but there wasn't much need for hardball as Kissling never raised enough cash to become a serious threat.

That's all changed. Heather, who is known for launching preemptive strikes of her own, is no longer dealing with Democrats who have a historically weak record when it comes to negative campaigning. As ABQ Tribune editor Phil Casaus noted, this will be "the toughest fight of Wilson's political career."

HEATHER CRIES FOUL

Pearce's aggressiveness did leave him open to a counterpunch that his Thursday night phone calls refereed folks to his official US House Web site, not one from a campaign which Wilson charged was a violation of House rules. But Pearce was apparently willing take that minor hit in exchange for shaking up the race. On Saturday, I interviewed with KOB-TV and reporter Chris Ornelas about the Pearce ploy and Heather's response.

Pearce's first strike was both offensive and defensive. The SCHIP veto was not popular with all Republicans--Heather voted to override the President--but by vigorously defending his vote Peace firmed up his support with conservative R's and took some of the wind out of any Wilson attack on the issue, if it comes.

Finkelstein is a character in his own right. Despite being an advocate for conservative Republicans, many of whom favor a constitutional amendment to ban gay marriage, in 2005 he made news when he affirmed that he was gay and married his longtime partner in a civil ceremony in Massachusetts.

That didn't stop Pearce from keeping Finkelstein on the payroll. In '06 He paid the New Yorker nearly $92,000. Some R's in ultraconservative areas may be uptight about Finkelstein's background; other R's will argue it shows that Pearce harbors no prejudice, a plus as his foes seek to paint him as an extremist.

Consultants are an unlikely issue in this campaign; it's the candidates, but who the contenders surround themselves with gives clues to how they will conduct themselves. Pearce's first play telegraphs that while fighting without gloves may not be his preferred method, he is as ready as Wilson for a match featuring bloody knuckles.

Who will throw the next punch? Stay tuned.

THE DEMS MUTTER

On the Democratic side of the senate equation, uneasiness continues. For many, Marty Chavez and Don Wiviott don't cut the mustard. They want Governor Big Bill to come in if his Prez campaign falters. The clarion call is now going out in the national media with the liberal New Republic (subscription required) actually calling for Bill to drop out of the Prez race right now and go for the Senate.

Richardson, of course, has the right to nurse his hopeless presidential ambitions until his fellow Democrats unmercifully crush them in the actual caucuses and primaries. But, if Richardson truly cared about his party--not to mention his country--he would give up that right, abandon his presidential campaign, and toss his hat in the ring for the U.S. Senate. After all, while Richardson won't be in the White House come 2009, there's a good chance that another Democrat will be. And that president will need all the help she--or he--can get.

DARK DAYS FOR ECLIPSE

If you had trouble translating what Eclipse Aviation was saying about its future status when it announced the layoffs of 10% of it's workforce, you're not alone. The company's tortuous explanation, followed by more shades of gray from city officials, did not address the real story, according to aviation insiders. That story is that the light jet manufacturer which has received $100 million in cash and tax incentives from New Mexico taxpayers, is in financial trouble.

Stan Blankenship, an aviation expert, has been blogging this story for nearly two years with assists from aviation insiders around the country. Despite repeated warnings, they were paid little mind. Maybe that will change because the proverbial chickens appear to be coming home to roost.

It was only a couple of weeks ago that ABQ Mayor Marty Chavez chose Eclipse as the backdrop for his announcement that he will seek the 2008 Dem senate nomination, showcasing Eclipse as a model for economic success. He has been among the strongest advocates for public subsidies for the company. He has been joined in that support by Big Bill, Congresswoman Wilson and Senators Domenici and Bingaman and assorted legislators.

But Eclipse is nowhere near to annually producing the 500-600 planes it needs to just break even. The thousands of "high-wage" permanent jobs the politicos promised are in doubt. The bombastic CEO of Eclipse, Vern Raburn, who sold the state and city on a massive public investment in his start-up, is going to have to pull a rabbit out of his hat and soon. Chavez, who was manhandled for his fiscal policies when he lost the '98 Governor's race, better hope Vern does, or those photos of him announcing at Eclipse are going to look like shots from Halloween IV.

If this was a private venture, it would be just another business deal gone bad for high-risk investors. But critics point out this involves an investment of the public's money and credibility and are calling for oversight and investigation by the Legislature, the ABQ City Council, Mayor Chavez and the press.

Someone may want to start asking questions now while there's still a chance for a take-off. Otherwise, they may be gathered at the scene of a fatal crash.

THE BOTTOM LINES
Rep. Herrera
From the Governor's office Sunday night: "Governor Richardson will order flags to fly at half-staff beginning Monday in memory of Rep. Manuel Herrera, who died this weekend following a long battle with cancer.

“Manny Herrera was a quiet, but effective advocate for the people in Grant and Hidalgo counties. I always turned to Manny Herrera on any issue that affected Southwest New Mexico. He will be missed.”

The county commissions for Grant and Hidalgo will recommend a name or names to the Governor who will appont a replacement for Democratic State Rep. Herrera....

Dub is going and Dan is coming. GOP State Rep. "Dub" Williams tells friends he will not seek re-election to the Legislature next year from his Lincoln-Otero district. That has given rise to Dan Power, who is in the real estate biz, and who tells me he will seek the GOP nod to replace rancher Williams. Power is a former El Paso city councilor who also once ran for a US House seat. As for those other "D's,"--the Dems--they don't have much hope of picking up the heavy R seat...

Thanks for stopping by. Email your news and thoughts.

(c)NM POLITICS WITH JOE MONAHAN 2007
Not for reproduction without permission of the author

It's a whole new ball game, and there are a lot of new players on the field, so it's no wonder we're seeing some early errors as the candidates try to find their footing amidst the aftershocks of the political earthquake set off by the retirement of NM GOP Senator Pete Domenici. There's not only the race to succeed him but the contests for two US House seats that have opened up as a result of Pete's parting decision as the incumbents try to move up the ladder.

The first display of political nerves came from ABQ GOP US Heather Wilson whose camp was already leaking word of her desire to replace Pete even before Domenici made his retirement official. She made her own candidacy official a mere 24 hours after the Senator gave a poignant speech saying he was retiring for health reasons. Insiders now say that Heather's dash to declare did not go down well with certain members of Pete's family who felt she would have shown more respect by waiting a couple of days.

Whether this is a mistake or not will be debated, but media mavens are taking note that US Rep. Steve Pearce, seeking the GOP Senate nod along with Heather, made his first New Mexico newspaper comments on his soon to be official candidacy not to the state's largest newspaper, the ABQ Journal, but to the much smaller and possibly soon out of business ABQ Tribune.

It's a mistake if you think Pearce should be currying favor with the Journal and its Republican readers, but maybe it's wise if you believe Pearce knows the Journal is likely to endorse Heather in the primary no matter what he does. Whatever the case, the newspapers, like the candidates, are dealing with a whole new set of circumstances.

MARTIN'S MISTAKE

The campaign of ABQ congressional candidate Martin Heinrich is the scene of the first casualty of Campaign '08. Philip Muller, campaign manager for the ABQ city councilor, is out. He left in a dispute over the direction of the campaign, leaving Heinrich to pick up the pieces and find new leadership. Heinrich spent a lot of money on Muller. According to FEC records, the consultant was pulling down $6400 a month.

Well, live and learn, but first pay up. Muller says he walked away from the campaign with a financial settlement.

CAN YOU SPOT THE ERROR?

Michelle Lujan Grisham, also seeking the Dem nomination for the ABQ Congressional seat, gets the photo of her announcement posted on your blog again because of the error it shows. Can you tell what it is?

The photographer Mark Bralley did as well as several emailers. They pointed out that the American flag is incorrectly positioned. They even sent us the U.S. Flag code.

"When displayed either horizontally or vertically against a wall, the union should be uppermost and to the flag’s own right, that is, to the observer’s left. "

Michelle says her rookie error was actually caused by an overeager supporter who hastily applied the flag to the podium.

DARREN'S "VICTORY"

Another early campaign "mistake" that not everyone will agree on is Darren White's call for "victory" in Iraq when declaring his candidacy for the GOP nomination for the ABQ House seat. Polls show Americans aren't buying the traditional notion of victory, so why didn't the Bernalillo County Sheriff describe in his opening statement just what constitutes "victory?"

State GOP Chair Allen Weh, a retired Colonel in the United States Marine Corps Reserve, says the omission was "unfortunate," but explained that Darren was not trying to leave the impression that a "Jeffersonian democracy" would take hold in Iraq, but foresees "a situation that secures the national interests" of the USA. That prompts the #1 question in America: How long will that take?

THE BLOGGERS ERR, TOO

Getting nervous is for the candidates, but we were plenty excited by the grand political events of the past few weeks and made mistakes of our own. We got it wrong on how Michelle Lujan Grisham is related to former GOP Congressman Manuel Lujan and his brother Edward. The Lujan cousin connection comes from her father's side. Her mother's' maiden name was Jackson and she was from Indiana.

Friends and family of Earl Greer, Sierra County GOP chairman, email in to inform that there is a possible Hispanic GOP contender for the southern congressional seat, and it's none other than Earl Greer. "He is a Montoya from his mother's side," wrote one. He added that Greer is "as Hispanic as Bill Richardson" who also has a Hispanic mother and an Anglo father.

Alysha Greer-Smith, Earl's daughter, pointed out that we said Democrat Joseph Cervantes was the only Hispanic candidate looking at the southern race. Will we be hearing from more and just how many limbs of New Mexico's family tree are we going to let fall on us?

Like some of the candidates mistakes, this one is open to judgment. Will turnout in the state GOP primary approach the 38% level we said was a consensus number? We could be high on that. Pollster Brian Sanderoff promises us some further analysis.

We've also flubbed a few issues on campaign finance laws too complicated to explain here. We are somewhat relieved that our experts tell us they are not entirely sure how these new federal laws work either, but we think we'll skate around the topic until we take a brush up course. Maybe we'll learn about it when the candidates start accusing each other of violating the rules which is probably closer than our first snowfall.

THE BOTTOM LINES

We broke the news a couple of months ago that ABQ's Spiro Vassilopoulos, an oil industry investor, was contemplating challenging Pete Domenici in the GOP US Senate primary, so we should let you know that Spiro told us earlier this week that he is not going to run and he endorses Steve Pearce over Heather Wilson. To which Heather might say, " Steve, beware of Greeks bearing gifts...

Email your news, comments and criticisms. We welcome them all.

Reporting from Albuquerque, I'm Joe Monahan.

(c)NM POLITICS WITH JOE MONAHAN 2007
Not for reproduction without permission of the author

NM GOP Senator Pete Domenici's recent retirement announcement has apparently averted an investigation into his conduct surrounding the US Attorney scandal. The Web site "Truthout" is reporting that the Senate Ethics Committee has decided against a probe. Domenici's phone call to then-US attorney David Iglesias asking about the status of a federal investigation into charges of corruption in the construction of the Bernalillo County Metro Court building sparked the calls for a probe, but Truthout reports:

It's unlikely the preliminary investigation will move to the next stage," said one person who works closely with the committee. "The reason? His mental state."

ABQ Congresswoman Wilson also made a phone call. Whether there will be a House ethics investigation remains up in the air.

MORE PETE BEAT

Meantime, Senator Domenici chief of staff Steve Bell is telling the Journal he regrets the primary contest between Wilson and Congressman Steve Pearce saying it will divide the party. But the faction of R's upset with Domenici and Bell say the party was already divided because Domenici and Bell and associates favored particular groups of consultants, candidates and lobbyists.

Some insiders have speculated that Domenici did not want a strong GOP because it would give rise to potential competitors to his leadership,. That may be a stretch, but the Senator's legacy is not going to be enhanced by the nasty divide the party has gone through under his watch in recent years.

Not that the Dems don't tear themselves from limb to limb, too. It's just that they can afford more infighting because there is a a lot more of them and they win most of the elections, despite the fighting. A minority party not unified is doomed to be, well, a minority party.

THE LOW KEY PEARCE

Sticking with his low-key style, NM GOP Congressman Steve Pearce sent out this mild missive to friends and supporterss Wednesday, announcing his plans to seek the GOP nomination for the Senate seat.

After talking with family, friends and supporters, Cynthia and I have decided to run for the United States Senate. Although I won't make a formal declaration for some time, we want you to know that we plan to enter the race.

I came to my decision after careful consideration and it was not one that I took lightly. There is still much work to do, but I want you to know that I will make an announcement soon once all the pieces are in place to begin the campaign.

You know me: I will run hard and I will run to win...

Insiders expect an official entry by the conservative lawmaker the first week of November. They tell us he will probably make a several city tour to launch his campaign in which he will be taking on ABQ GOP Congresswoman Heather Wilson who is also leaving her House seat for a shot at the senate.

FOLEY CASE GETS SPECIAL
Foley
Whether Roswell GOP Sate Rep. Dan Foley will go to trial is now in the hands of a special prosecutor who is a former Lea County district court judge. He says he has no ties to the controversial lawmaker who faces charges of resisting arrest, obstructing an officer and disorderly conduct in connection with an incident at a basketball tournament in which Foley's' son was playing.

The District Attorney for the Roswell area, Terry Haake, sent the controversy to former District Court Judge Gus Gallini (Lea County '87-2002) who says he has no previous ties to Foley.

In his role as special prosecutor Gallini will decide whether the charges against the lawmaker merit going to trial. The Roswell Record reports Foley, 38, and the ex-judge do have some things in common--they are both Republicans and ex-Marines.

As the Roswell Record reports: "The case was dismissed from Municipal Court in July by arresting officers who forwarded it to the district attorney's office for further investigation. It has since become a political hot potato with judges hesitant to get involved.

The case has prompted speculation in Chaves county that Foley could draw an opponent in next year's GOP primary. So far, none has surfaced.

A CHARLIE NOT A CHARLENE

It's a Charlie not a Charlene who will fill out a portion of the term of NM Supreme Court Justice Pamela Minzner. Governor Big Bill Wednesday named ABQ criminal defense attorney Charlie Daniels to fill the seat left vacant by the passing of Justice Pamela Minzner. It appears we are beyond the point where we have "female" seats on the courts. We didn't hear any squealing over the naming of Daniels in that regard who is himself well regarded.

Our legal beagles pinpointed Daniels and ABQ District Court Judge Linda Vanzi as the likeliest winners of the appointment, and they were correct. Vanzi has about 11 years experience as an attorney, just a bit more than the ten years required to serve on the state's high court. Daniels is 64 and has over 30 years of high-profile experience.

Daniels is a Democrat and a Big Bill donor. (He kicked in $2300 for his Prez campaign back in February.) All five positions on the court belong to the D's, but Daniels will have to run in a contested election in 2008. One of our Legal Beagles sent this analysis:

"A strong Hispanic candidate could probably beat Daniels in the Democratic primary but I doubt that happens. No names come to mind."

We'll wait and see on that one. How about the Republicans? They haven't had a seat on the court in years. The odds are still against them, but they are expected to field a contender. E-mail any names bouncing around.

(c)NM POLITICS WITH JOE MONAHAN 2007
Not for reproduction without permission of the author

• ABQ JOURNAL COVERAGE HERE
• LAS CRUCES SUN-NEWS COVERAGE HERE
• SANTA FE NEW MEXICAN & AP COVERAGE HERE
• PEARCE INTERVIEW WITH THE HILL; HOW HE TOLD HEATHER
  

Steve Pearce entered New Mexico's World Series of Political Poker Tuesday, anteing up a secure seat in the US House of Representatives for a seat at the table with Heather Wilson. The forthcoming battle between the two US House members for the Republican nomination for the US Senate seat being vacated by Pete Domenici will determine who will carry their party's banner into battle against the Democrats in 2008 and also decide the direction of New Mexican Republicanism well into this new century.

The Pearce announcement that he will vacate the southern congressional seat after three terms set off a scramble to succeed him. More details on that in a moment, but first complete coverage of the historic Wilson-Pearce showdown.

The early insider betting was heavy on the Pearce side, with the odds on the 60 year old southern NM congressman sure to come down when Wilson of ABQ rises to the challenge. She has little choice, according to the most astute political minds here and on the banks of the Potomac.

"She needs to put the brakes on Pearce. She starts off in the lead, but only because of her name ID. She is known throughout the state because of her TV campaigns. He is going to slowly but surely overtake her unless she does something to stop him.

"His conservative views are attractive in a primary. Candidates with firmly defined viewpoints win primaries. That's Pearce. Because she has had to please Democrats in her district, Wilson in many ways is an orphan in her own party," analyzed Democratic pollster and consultant Harry Pavlides whose involvement in state politics dates back 35 years.

Longtime New Mexico pollster Brian Sanderoff also raised the caution flag for Wilson, saying:

"Pearce has been a pretty conservative congressman who represents a conservative district and he could maintain that message through the primary."

HEATHER'S HAND

Wilson, a renowned political fighter who has scored impressive victories in her ABQ congressional district since first taking it in '98 and where Dems outnumber R's by over 30,000, faces perhaps her most daunting political task in getting Republicans to go against their natural instincts and not vote with the most conservative candidate.

"Maybe she moves further to the right to invade his conservative base. Perhaps she also argues that he is outside the mainstream," offered one of our Alligators gaming the race.

But many highly likely voters---right to life advocates, evangelicals and anti-immigration Republicans are going to be difficult, if not impossible, to peel away from Pearce, say top analysts.

They say Pearce will have no trouble turning in a landslide in his southern district. The question is can Heather pull off her own landslide in Bernalillo County and Rio Rancho where about 40% of the June '08 GOP vote will be cast?

Heather appears to need landslide totals in the state's largest county and suburbs because Pearce, an oilman from Hobbs, could be a favorite in the oil and gas region of San Juan County in the Four Corners where there is a large R population. She also faces headwinds elsewhere.

Pearce should have easy pickings on the east side, in Quay, Roosevelt and Curry counties. Heather should be able to battle him in Republican heavy Los Alamos. She also has a good shot at the R's in the Spanish north, but they are few and far between.

If Heather is unable to make inroads in rural NM it will mean an ABQ landslide or bust for her, increasing the odds of a Pearce win, but her supporters argue Heather's dogged determination is her best weapon.

"She has been in the lobster pot many times, crawled out of the boiling water and then dropped the other guy in the pot. Steve has not been in the crucible of combat like her," one Alligator colorfully commented.

EARLY ALARMS

The first inklings that Pearce could make inroads in big Bernalillo County came last December when R's aligned with Pearce supported Fernando C De Baca for re-election as Bernalillo County Republican Chairman. He held off a challenge from pro-Wilson candidate, Mario Burgos.

When Allen Weh was re-elected chairman of the party this year, he had to overcome objections from rural Republicans who charged that the party was too focused on Wilson and not enough on other office seekers, yet another sign of things to come.

IN THE GUTTER?

How negative will the intra-party battle royal get? Most opinion leaders we sought out predicted the race would start off relatively mild, but they worried about it getting personal and inflicting severe damage on both Heather and Steve. That, they fretted, could hand the Senate seat to the Dems in November.

The recent vintage of NM and national consultants has been vicious, running almost exclusively negative campaigns. If they turn on each other in this epic face-off, blood could spill on the rest of the GOP ticket, including ABQ congressional hopeful Darren White and whoever takes the GOP congressional nomination down south.

INSIDE THE DECISION

Insiders say Pearce was deluged with opinion on whether to take the plunge.

"I believe much of his decision came down to timing. This was simply the right time for him." Said one Washington insider familiar with Pearce's thinking.

"There was some discussion that his district could be changed in the redistricting of 2011, making it more difficult for him to to hold the House seat, but the major reasons were distinct. He believes he can win the primary and the November election and has the resources to do it." Said our D.C. Gator.

Those "resources" could total up to $2 million for each of our combatants in the June primary. Our finance sources say Pearce was also influenced to run by lining up support from the Club for Growth, a Republican group that gets involved in GOP primaries and comes down on the side of the conservative.

"They will be able to push large money donors his way. Their main concern is the tax and spend issue, and Pearce has voted the way they like," explained our reliable source.

That raises the question of what exactly will be the big issues in this first-ever primary race between two NM US Reps.

"I don't think Iraq will be as big of a deal as some might expect. I think the tax and spend issue will be the major focus," argued Republican Kurt Lohbeck, in the NM political game since '59.

While Pearce has been more supportive than Wilson of Bush administration policies on the unpopular war, Wilson has also been generally on board with the White House--to her detriment in a general election campaign--but not so much in a Republican primary.

BY THE NUMBERS

NM Republicans total about 354,000 or 33% of the state's 1, 077,000 voters. Anticipated turnout for the Pearce-Wilson contest is about 38% to 40%, or about 135,000. But it could be lower. Television ads will play an important role, but not a supreme one. Direct mail, phone trees, push polling, door-to-door campaigning and other grass roots activities will be critical components in this small turnout, high-stakes event.

Get out the vote efforts will also be key. If there is a closely contested primary to fill Pearce's shoes in the US House, that could boost turnout in his district and to his benefit. On the other hand, if Sheriff White goes unchallenged in the GOP primary for Heather's ABQ House seat, that could be a lost opportunity for her as she might benefit from the increased turnout a contested House primary would bring in her ABQ stronghold.

PILING ON PEARCE

NM Dems released a statement saying Pearce deserves to be fired not promoted because of his support of Bush-Cheney policies. Would he be the weakest candidate against a Democrat in November? Maybe. Maybe not.

If Pearce is locked in on the hard-right and unable to move near the center, pollster Sanderoff says New Mexico's moderate tradition will send Pearce home to Hobbs. Heather, who has already made peace offerings to Dems in the past, could be better positioned to pick up the 25% of the Dems an R contender needs to take a statewide race.

ABQ Mayor Marty Chavez's camp want Pearce as a Senate opponent more than Heather, thinking his conservative reputation will indeed doom him. And Pearce and Wilson both want Marty as their opponent because polling shows they have a decent shot against him. The R's remind everyone Chavez lost the '98 Governor's race to Republican Gary Johnson.

Speaking of Governor, the current one, Big Bill, sent out a teasing news release just 90 minutes or so after Pearce's announcement started moving across computer screens coast to coast. It urged Pearce to override President Bush's veto of the children's health care program--SCHIP--which has become a rallying cry against the President and Republicans. (What will Wilson do? Stay tuned.).

Was this the first shot in a NM US Senate race involving Big Bill? His fan club hoped so, but the answer will remain unknown, at least until late January or February 5th when the Presidential contest and Big Bill's fortunes in it are finally decided.

MADRID'S MOOD

Patricia Madrid played cat and mouse with your blog Tuesday, but we can't blame her much. She had told us last week she had ruled out a run for the ABQ congressional seat. But the former Dem Attorney General told us Tuesday while she has ruled out a run for the Dem Senate nod, she now has changed her mind and wants to leave the door open a crack for a run at the House seat she lost to Heather Wilson by less than an a thousand votes in 2006.

Patsy cited the changing players at the political poker table, calling the situation "fluid." We don't get the impression, however, that she is warming to the idea of another congressional run, but we note the mood change.

THE REPUBLICAN BENCH

The Pearce announcement wasn't a shocker, but neither was it as routine as your morning cup of coffee. It caught many R's off guard, and no big name possible Republican replacements for Pearce immediately popped up. But late Tuesday, several insiders dropped the name of Dona Ana County State Senator and Minority Whip Lee Rawson. Until he says otherwise, his name moves to near top of the list.

Also on that list is Socorro State Rep. Don Tripp, Roswell oilman Phelps Anderson, Sierra County GOP Chairman Earl Greer and restaurant chain owner Ed Tinsley. GOP State Reps Gray of Artesia and Bratton of Lea, also heard their names circulating.

Rawson, in real estate in Dona Ana County, has been in the Legislature 20 years. He has the profile for the district where the GOP "has the advantage," said consultant Pavlides.

Does Rawson want out of the Roundhouse and to take a shot at walking through the Rotunda of Capitol Hill? We'll know soon enough.

THE DEM SHAKE-UP
Cervantes
As for the Dems, the chief curiosity is whether Dona Ana County State Rep. Joe Cervantes gets in the Democratic chase for the Pearce House seat. He told me Tuesday he will "consult with advisers and pollsters" today as he weighs his move. He is the cautious sort, but has said previously an open US House seat would draw his attention. He would be the leading and so far only Hispanic in the race.

Former Dona Ana County Commissioner Harry Teague of Hobbs, perhaps getting wind of what Pearce was up to (his family is close to Steve's in Hobbs and he has contributed money to the congressman) announced he will run for the Democratic nomination just before Pearce's decision leaked.

Teague has big oil money, is well connected in the Democratic Party and therefore is an instant player. He joins Dona Ana County Commissioner Bill McCamley and '06 Dem nominee Al Kissling in the primary contest. In Santa Fe, there were even rumblings that State Sen. John Arthur Smith, who lost to Pearce in '02, was looking at the open seat and the Dem nomination.

Insider Dems in the state's money center in Albuquerque report that McCamley could be hit hardest by the Teague entrance and the possibility of Cervantes coming in.

"Teague will freeze up the money to McCamley from the south and east side. He will try to starve him out of the race. He can't do that with Cervantes who also has business interests and would be expected to self-finance, if he has to. Kissling has no funding, and is now unlikely to make it on the ballot," analyzed our money maven.

ONE SHOT FOR GLORY

Getting on the precious primary ballot. That's the $500,000 or so question. The rules say you must get 20% of the delegate votes at the March pre-primary convention. Cervantes is a lock. Teague looks good if he is serious and spends. McCamley may need to come with more punch to avoid getting sidelined by the party powers who will argue the 29 year old will have another chance someday.

As for the November election, the Cervantes camp is concerned that the district does not set up well for an Hispanic victory. One has never won there. It could be made more Democratic at the 2011 legislative redistricting, but this is an open congressional seat, a near wonder. You delay at your own peril.

Cervantes, from a longtime chile growing family, would be favored in a primary with two Anglo challengers. He can still take it against a single Anglo challenger as the old New Mexico axiom that Hispanics win Democratic primaries has not been revoked. But the main event in November of '08 will be a bear of a contest.

A national Democratic tsunami would probably sweep Cervantes to victory. Without such a wave, resistance to the attorney in "Little Texas" in the east and south could be too rigid for him to overcome.

The GOP certainly hopes for that or a similar scenario. Pearce's gutsy decision to go all in means his party risks having no GOP NM US House members. And if the Senate seat goes D, they would be shut out completely.

PETE'S POSITION

The Pearce camp got cute and are calling themselves "People For Pearce." You know, like "People for Pete." Pete, of course, being US Senator Pete Domenici who has made the slogan famous since serving in the Senate since 1973.

Opinion is divided on whether the ailing Senate legend who announced his retirement and set off the political earthquake that is keeping bloggers and news types in alternate states of euphoria and exhaustion, will endorse Heather Wilson in her race against Pearce.

Such an endorsement could help galvanize support for Heather, but not as much as it did when Pete went for her in the '98 US House GOP primary. Today he is a lame duck.

Domenici may also hesitate if he thinks about when retiring US GOP Rep. Joe Skeen, also suffering from a degenerative disease like Pete, announced in 2002 that he was endorsing Ed Tinsley in a crowded Republican primary. But you don't see any "Congressman Tinsley" in your history books; it's Congressman Pearce.

THESE SPECIAL DAYS

Pete may or may not endorse, but no man can stop the future from being born. You and I are eyewitnesses to the beginnings of a new political era for this great state of ours. As when a child is being born, you are not yet wondering what the babe will weigh or whether it's a boy or a girl, you simply marvel at the miracle of the event.

Democracy is dancing uninhibited--on a crowded floor; the way it was intended, but rarely seen in our lifetimes. Like the birth of a child, it has a miraculous quality. We are free to choose. May it ever be so.

I'm Joe Monahan, reporting to you from Albuquerque, New Mexico.

(c)NM POLITICS WITH JOE MONAHAN 2007
Not for reproduction without permission of the author

This won't knock your socks off, but for the record, ABQ Mayor Marty Chavez is not going to defer to Light Guv Diane Denish in the unlikely event she opts to join him in the race for the Dem nomination for the Senate seat being vacated by Republican Pete Domenici.

"Marty will not get out for Diane. He has announced and we believe his chances of beating her for the Senate are much greater than for the Governor's seat (especially if she is the incumbent) so we have made the decision to move forward regardless of her entrance. "

That statement from a Chavez insider who refers to the possibility that Lady Di could become Guv in the event Big Bill departs for bigger pastures. Of course, many of the politicos still think Bill will end up coming back to this pasture to run for that Senate seat. What would Marty do then? And would that the answer knock our socks off?

You heard Dem northern US Rep Tom Udall say he's staying put and not leaving his House seat to seek the Senate job and you heard right. Still, folks want to have fun, so here's the link to the Draft Udall for Senate" site.

What isn't so funny is the $800,000 Udall has in his campaign account after years of weak challengers. And no one has even announced to run against him in '08! He could use that money for a Senate run, but why?

MONEY TALK

Udall was among those reporting their third quarter money totals to the FEC Monday. US Reps Pearce and Wilson already released their general info, and the AP has an overview.

Looking at the specific reports, what stood out was the $15,000 given to Heather Wilson this election cycle by GOP House leader John Boehner's PAC. Now that she's running for Senate, she won't be able to vote for Boehner again, but she will be able to spend the money he sent her way. Hey, isn't Boehner one of the top dogs trying to talk Pearce out of running against Heather for the GOP Senate nomination?

Steve Pearce has some good friends in the Murphy oil family. According to the latest federal report, the Murphy's--and branches of the Roswell family--have so far in this cycle donated in the vicinity of $25,000 to the southern GOP congressman. Pearce can use the money. He is thinking about joining Heather in that race for the GOP US Senate nomination.

THE PEARCE WATCH

My sources late Tuesday were telling us that Pearce's decision could be "very near," with the insiders saying the odds are tilting toward a run. But we are cautious of any predictions as we are dealing in the highest realms of La Politica where nothing is final until the Fat Lady swallows the green chile. Also, the Internet domain name 'pearceforsenate.com' or .org. and several others related are unavailable. Is this getting interesting, or what?

BILL'S BILLFOLD

As for that cash intensive Prez race, Governor Bill reports he raised $5.2 million in the third quarter and finished with nearly $6 million in the bank as of September 30. Sounds pretty good, until you look at Hillary Clinton's pile. She has a stunning $35 million in the bank.

Bill has fired his TV guns early. Take a look at this:

"So far, Romney has placed the most political ads on the air than any candidate, Democrat or Republican. The Nielsen Co., which also monitors advertising, reported Monday that Romney had placed 10,600 television ads from Jan. 1 to Oct. 10. Democrat Bill Richardson, the governor of New Mexico, was second with 5,800 television spots."

What happens when Hill and Obama start spending their millions. it won;t take long for them to pull ahead of the Guv in the TV totals.

ALL ABOARD WITH BILL?

It's been odd to see Big Bill getting criticized in some of the papers for saying he wants to find needed funds for the Rail Runner from the state budget and federal money, instead of from a tax increase. Can the papers and other critics really believe any of us are up for a tax hike as the state has piled up (and spent) hundreds of millions in surplus oil and gas money the past several years? If Bill and the legislators fouled up on figuring how much the Rail Runner cost, let him and them find the cash needed from what's already been collected. So far, that's what the Guv plans. The remaining question: What programs are going to be cut to keep the Rail Runner on track?

SAFE AND NOT SORRY

Where are all the legislators wanting to advance to those prized congressional openings? It seems none of them are willing to give up their Roundhouse slots to take a shot (and a gamble) at the big time.

ABQ GOP State Senators Mark Boitano and Joe Carraro and ABQ GOP State Rep. Janice Arnold-Jones are making noise about running for Congress but none of them have said they will give up their legislative seats. Only if they did that would the political community and money donors judge them as serious.

(Arnold-Jones, her friends say, will gather petition signatures to file for her legislative seat, as well as form an exploratory committee for the ABQ US House seat. We presume Carraro and Boitano are doing the same, though not necessarily starting exploratory committees.)

All these lawmakers have told me the issue of raising money for a congressional run will very likely keep them in the Legislature. But the law gives them a month to play around. Play around they will. Seriously run? Not likely.

Filing date for congressional and statewide candidates is February 12. Filing for legislative candidates is March 18. That means a legislator could file petition signatures for Congress and qualify for consideration at his party's March 15 pre-primary convention. If they failed to get 20% of the delegates needed to qualify for the June ballot, or had an otherwise poor showing, they could file on March 18th their previously gathered petitions signatures for their legislative seats.

There is a risk. Unless you are fully secure in your legislative seat, playing around with other offices may draw potential primary rivals who could tell your constituents they would love nothing more than to represent them in the Roundhouse as their current lawmaker may be more interested in another office.

NOT SAFE, AND NOT SORRY

Who among the current crop of congressional candidates, you may wonder, is going all in? Putting it all on the line?

Dem ABQ City Councilor Martin Heinrich gave up his council seat to run for the ABQ US House seat, 29 year old Bill McCamley has sworn off a run for re-election as a Dona Ana county commissioner to go all in for the Dem nod for the southern congressional seat. And, while technically she still has time to back out, ABQ GOP Congresswoman Heather Wilson has said she will relinquish her current position for a shot at higher service. Will Steve Pearce join this elite list?

It's no knock against the candidates with fall back positions, but in this era when the safe political option seems to be the popular one, these three exceptions stand out to us, and maybe to some voters as well.

DOUBLE SIDED PARTY

A fundraiser tonight for ABQ GOP State Senator Diane Snyder lists Johnny Cope, well-known Hobbs Democrat and friend of Big Bill, as one of the lead sponsors along with state GOP Chair Allen Weh and Ken Zanagara, former chair of the Bernalillo County R's.

Snyder is unlikely to be challenged in the June '08 GOP primary, but needs to look ahead to next November when she will need Dem support in her NE Heights district. The insiders say it has the potential to be a D pick up. Several Dems, including John Blair, are making plans to run.

The cocktail reception tonight goes for $250 a head and is being held at the Chama River Brewing company which is owned by another Big Bill friend--Gerald Peters.

Will Democrats for Diane be meeting there next?

Email your news and comments.

(c)NM POLITICS WITH JOE MONAHAN 2007
Not for reproduction without permission of the author

Pearce & Cheney
The crazy quilt patterns of politics are no better illustrated than by the wooing of Vice-President Dick Cheney by NM US Reps Heather Wilson and Steve Pearce. Cheney, polling below cellar level, can barely find a welcome mat in his home state of Wyoming, but here in our Enchanted Land a little tussle has actually broken out between Heather and Steve over winning Cheney's love.

Heather appeared to launch a preemptive strike against Pearce for the small, but heavy voting contingent of NM R's who still carry the flame for the Veep by announcing Cheney would be doing a D.C. fundraiser for her. That left the impression that Cheney was endorsing her senate bid. Not so.

Pearce is still weighing whether to get in the race for the 2008 GOP senate nomination while Heather is already in. It turns out that the Cheney fundraiser was set up for Heather's US House re-election bid and well before she became a senate candidate. That was not stated when the "news" was first leaked.

After the report attributed to a "knowledgable source" hit the streets, Heather later explained to the AP that she had asked Cheney if he would still appear at the fundraiser now that she is seeking the Domenici senate seat. He agreed, but did not issue a public endorsement.

Now, sources close to the Pearce camp say they have been assured that the White House will take part in an event for their man featuring the Veep, or maybe even the Prez, thereby leveling the playing field, if there is going to be any playing between our two GOP reps.

Whether the event Cheney does for Pearce will be for a senate run or for his House re-elect is unclear as Steve remains undecided on whether to join Heather in the nomination battle, but this first tussle between the two highlights what's to come if we do have a contested senate primary.

CAMPAIGN CONTEXT

The Cheney tug-of-war also showcases the advantage Heather currently has as the only announced candidate. Pearce is in a defensive posture until he makes a decision. Of course, the irony is lost on no one that self-described "moderate" Republican Heather wants to embrace arch-conservative Cheney. Politics makes strange bedfellows indeed.

Heather's critics say she has been acting a bit spastic. They accuse her of dancing on Senator Domenici's political grave by holding her senate announcement only 24 hours after he announced he would retire, and then launching a missile over the Cheney deal.

After talking with the polling mavens one can understand why Heather is at least nervous, if not spastic. In a head-to-head GOP senate contest with Pearce, she has to worry about an impassioned turnout among southern and eastside conservatives that could offset her advantage in ABQ. Voter motivation is key in primaries and those with the strongest views tend to turn out in the strongest numbers.

Pearce simply appeals more to hard-core conservative Republicans than Wilson because there's no ifs, ands or buts about his orthodoxy. However, to survive in her moderate ABQ district, Heather has had to become a hybrid. Half the time she runs on conservative fuel; the other half she uses "moderate" petrol to keep her campaign car moving.

The effort by Wilson's campaign--or an unauthorized zealous insider--to leave the impression that conservative Cheney was immediately endorsing her candidacy grew out of her perplexing problem with hard-right conservatives. The way the incident came about is also a reminder that it won't only be issues that decide a contested GOP senate primary, but also the character of the candidates and the conduct of their respective campaigns.

IN THE LYONS DEN
Pat Lyons
The threat of a possible third GOP senate candidate---state Land Commissioner Lyons--drew intense interest when he floated the idea because he could draw some of those conservative R's from Pearce, giving Heather a boost. But Lyons' entry is unlikely, according to insiders. Among the roadblocks: Could he muster 20% of the March pre-primary convention vote needed to make it on the June ballot with Pearce and Wilson scrapping for every delegate? And does he want to risk screwing Pearce and the consequences that could result?

Friends of Lyons' say he is ruling out a run for the Pearce House seat if it becomes vacant. Lyons does not live in the district, but he is still legally eligible. They say he is more interested in the '10 Guv's race.

PETE'S POSITION

The Cheney affair may remind some of you of an unprecedented endorsement in a contested GOP race for the US House in 1998. It came from Senator Domenici for Heather Wilson who was seeking the GOP nomination in a multi-candidate field for the US House vacancy created by the death of GOP Congressman Steve Schiff.

Pete's endorsement played a key role in clearing the field for the then unknown Wilson, but it also left a bad taste in the mouths of a number of Republicans that lingers to this day. Now the question is back: Will Pete endorse Heather again, even if Pearce challenges her? And if he did, what impact would it have on the campaign?

PLEADING WITH PEARCE

If Pearce decides against a senate run, he will have a reasonable excuse. As we reported last week, the House GOP leadership is urging him to stay put for fear that his southern seat could go to the Dems, further weakening the party's standing in the lower chamber. The New York Times Sunday came with confirmation:

"Worried about increasing departures, the House leadership has been encouraging Representative Steve Pearce of New Mexico to forgo a run for the Senate and avoid opening a second Republican-held House seat in a state where Democrats are gaining strength."

Whether Pearce will be persuaded by that argument remains to be seen. After all, the R's are already in the minority and very likely to stay that way. If you're going to bolt, the time may be now.

(The Times also hit with a weekend piece on Big Bill's Iowa Prez campaign that details his fight to place third in the Iowa caucuses.)

DEMS WAIT ON DI

Reports from D.C. over the weekend say nothing has changed. National D's are still on an anti-Marty Chavez crusade, convinced he can't take the Domenici seat and working over Light Guv Diane Denish to get in the race for the Dem senate nod and push Marty aside.

If she did enter, would the ABQ mayor give up his just announced bid ? For what? A promise that Lady Di would not run for Guv in 2010 if she lost the senate race? Who would be in charge of enforcing that deal?

All the political pros and Alligators say Diane stays put and waits for the Guv's job. With such unanimity, maybe the opposite happens and she goes the other way. We should know this week.

BIG BILL & THE SUPREMES

Our Legal Beagles check in with the news that today Big Bill will interview the seven finalists for the opening on the NM Supreme Court created by the passing of Justice Pamela Minzner. The Beagles say ABQ District Court Judge Linda Vanzi and ABQ criminal defense attorney Charlie Daniels are two of the top finalists, but the Guv could choose a dark horse. They expect the decision not long after the interview process, possibly this week.

HAPPY DAYS

Here's a deal where everyone walks away happy. Santa Fe attorney Brian Egolf, 31, announced over the weekend that he will drop his bid for the Dem nomination for the state senate seat being vacated by Sen. Grubesic. He has opted instead to run for the state House seat being vacated by Rep. Wirth who is now seeking the Grubesic seat.

That means no Dem fight between Egolf and Wirth. While they no longer have to worry about each other, they still have to worry about other candidates getting into the race for the open seats. Insiders say former Santa Fe Mayor Larry Delgado is finding the Grubesic seek quite tempting.

Egolf, who hails from a well-off family, has raised $85,000--that's for a legislative seat, not a congressional seat. If he wins Wirth's House position, Speaker Ben Lujan will tell him exactly what to do for the first two years.

Why pay $85,000 for that, when your husband or wife will do it for free?

Email your news and comments and keep us up to date on the latest NM political news.

(c)NM POLITICS WITH JOE MONAHAN 2007
Not for reproduction without permission of the author

Pearce and Wilson
Before the kids go trick or treating, we should know whether we'll have an historic primary fight for the 2008 Republican US senate nomination. GOP southern NM Congressman Steve Pearce has told the D.C. insider publication "Congress Daily" he will take two weeks to mull over whether to join ABQ GOP Congresswoman Heather Wilson in seeking the right to succeed Pete Domenici, the state's longest ever serving senator who announced his retirement last Thursday, setting off political pandemonium never before seen in the history of New Mexico politics.

Since Heather announced her senate candidacy 24 hours after Pete's good-bye, speculation has centered on Pearce and how long he would keep the ball in the air. Conjecture here Thursday said that he could go as long as January before deciding so he could get a handle on whether Democratic Guv Big Bill Richardson would join the senate battle if his Prez bid sputtered. But the Congress Daily interview indicates otherwise.

Read this and read this closely:

Pearce said he would spend the next two weeks considering whether to challenge Wilson in the GOP primary.

"It's just a gut check. We'll listen to everyone," Pearce said, noting that the decision comes down to one thing: "Do you have the heart for the fight?"

He added that he has been discussing his political future with his wife and family, staff and supporters. He also..predicted he and Wilson would have a civil discourse if he runs.

"Each of us will talk about our pluses," he said.

He described his leadership style as inclusive, allowing him to appeal to the broader electorate.

"I'm very conservative, but I'm not limited," he said.

Wow! Is that Pearce actually looking like he's ready to announce for the GOP nomination and also preparing to veer to the center for a general election contest? Sure does. Trouble is there are a lot of conservative votes (think the Iraq war) that will get in the way of him moving the steering wheel. But that's a November issue, not a primary one where the R's like their red meat rare and bloody--Pearce style.

PEARCE'S TIMING

Pearce's interview will dampen speculation, but not extinguish it entirely, that he could keep his exploratory committee going longer than a couple of weeks. But a late entry with Heather already pounding the pavement could have a downside, reports one Potomac Alligator.

"You can't wait until the end of January on a what if. There's a lot of NM and national players that would back Steve but at some point soon they will feel forced to align with Heather if the alternative is not announced. Lots of people holding their cards but you know how it works, those that align early are remembered and those that don't aren't. Nobody ever wants to be left behind."

Meanwhile, Heather is on the move, too. Congress Daily reports former US House Speaker Hastert will hold a D.C. fundraiser for her and reports have Vice-President Cheney attending a D.C. fundraiser for her as well. That is a play for conservative support and keeps the pressure on Pearce, but it probably doesn't scare him. Sources close to the Pearce camp say the Cheney event was planned weeks ago and has nothing to do with the Veep showing a favorite in any Pearce-Wilson contest.

The Wilson camp is trying to spin that the current GOP establishment is behind Heather, but if Pearce runs they could have an insurgency on their hands that will rob them, their consultants and their favored lobbyists of power and position.

DEEP INSIDER INFO AND ANALYSIS

Being a fiscal conservative, it isn't surprising that Pearce would not like to have to dip into his sizable pocketbook to finance a senate run. The Alligators checking in here said Pearce was quietly putting out feelers to hire an ABQ based fundraiser, sending speculation into a fever-pitch that he is getting closer to running. As of the end of September, Pearce has about $600,000 in the bank; Heather about $750,000. Estimated cost of a primary battle could be in the $1.5 to $2 million range.

Our Capitol Hill operatives also report GOP House leader Boehner and GOP Congressional Campaign Committee head Cole are not encouraging Pearce to go for the senate. They fear, like many NM R's, a GOP rout that could leave the state with an all Dem congressional delegation. Keeping Pearce in place protects at least one House seat in the event of a Democratic Tsunami.

But Pearce, who my pros say would start as the favorite in the primary, seems to be inching in the opposite direction, forcing Wilson's hand.

"Heather must keep all the pressure she can on Steve to keep him out. She can't let up. Showing him the money is one way; getting solid commitments is the other. As you have reported, Pearce has a more than decent chance of winning a Republican primary featuring a heavy turnout of conservatives. She is starting her effort ot peel them away," commented another analyst,

Polls of GOP primary voters may not detect the conservative current beneath the political surface that would make a Pearce victory possible.

Another Pearce hole card is his money and the conservative support he can call on to reshape the race at a moments notice, ala Barry Goldwater. That may not be a winning recipe for a general election, but for a primary it would be potent.

If Pearce is serious. He must not hesitate. He must be prepared, if necessary, to write the check, and take the offensive.

Polling and praying are now at the top of the agenda for both Steve and Heather as they face the days that will shape the rest of their lives, and have no small impact on those in the state they serve.

DEALING WITH THE DEMS

In Donkey Land, the word was still whether Light Guv Diane Denish would take the mother of all gambles and join arch-rival ABQ Mayor Marty Chavez in a race for the Dem senate nod. The speculation was driving the Chavezistas crazy as polling shows she wins such a battle. They are also hearing that that Santa Fe's Don Wiviott, who appeals to liberals, would get out of the senate race if Lady Di decided to don the crown. Don has said he is in to stay, but anything can and will happen when you enter uncharted waters.

Chavez jumped quickly into the senate race, not waiting for polling or for the counsel of the Dem heavies in Washington who wanted to have input. Now that he is in, he can only spend time in the sweat box wondering what Diane will do, and perhaps later on, Big Bill. Denish could drag out her decision, like Pearce with Heather, inflicting further pain on her rival. But she is much too nice to do that. Isn't she?

PATSY PASSES

I caught up with former NM Attorney General Patricia Madrid Thursday as she was boarding a plane in Denver headed for ABQ and then on to see her mom and dad in Las Cruces.

Madrid told me she definitely will not seek the 2008 Dem nomination for the ABQ congressional seat, but she left the door open a crack for a run at the senate seat.

She will talk about it with her parents in Las Cruces, but is enjoying a new high- powered legal job and her time with husband Michael Messina. She has done polling, but is not sharing it yet.

MICHELLE'S MOVE

The Madrid news was good news indeed for the latest entrant into the Dem race for the ABQ congressional seat, former Big Bill Health Secretary Michelle Lujan Grisham. So far, She is the only female and Hispanic in the race, joining ABQ City Councilor Martin Heinrich and attorney Jon Adams.

She made a good impression on the reporters that I spoke with who covered her afternoon announcement attended by about 60 supporters. She is 47, photogenic and a definite threat to early starter Heinrich who reported yesterday that he has about $200,000 in cash on hand, a respectable amount, but definitely not enough to scare anyone with determination.

Can Lujan Grisham, a native New Mexican, appeal to South Valley Hispanics? She started a play for the large Democratic female vote Thursday citing her concern that domestic issues such as health care and the needs of seniors are being neglected because of the all consuming Iraq war.

Attorney Lujan Grisham is already being criticized for micromanaging the Health department, but it's unclear how big a deal that will be in a congressional race in which how you vote and how you debate are much more of a litmus test than how you manage personnel.

And how about prominent Republican Edward Lujan sitting on the podium with Michelle? He's the brother of former GOP NM Congressman Manuel Lujan and a well-known businessman and community philanthropist. The Lujan's are cousins to Michelle on her mother's side. Lujan Grisham told me Edward Lujan was there as part of her family's support and has not offered an explicit public endorsement, but his presence spoke volumes.

Longtime Alligators were quick to point out that Edward ran for the ABQ US House seat in 1988 when it was vacated by brother Manuel. Edward lost the GOP nomination that year to Steve Schiff. Lujan Grisham will use her Lujan connection to appeal to Hispanic voters and also as a means to persuade Dems that she can appeal to moderate Republicans in a general election.

Remember, ABQ has had a female congresswoman for nearly ten years and it was an Hispanic woman, Patricia Madrid, who nearly toppled incumbent Heather Wilson in '06.

Yes, questions remain about Lujan Grisham's ability to raise money and her campaign experience, but her foes aren't brimming with cash and experience either.

What this means is that there is no front runner yet in the Democratic race to replace Heather Wilson. Don't touch that dial.

LEWIS LEAVES

I hope James B. Lewis sticks to his decision to not seek the Dem nomination for the ABQ congressional seat. Now, I have nothing against James--I've know the state Treasurer for years--but when you see this reader's e-mail you will understand my position.

"Joe, I owe you lunch! James B. Lewis called a few minutes ago to tell me that he would not be a candidate for the open congressional seat."

Yes, I bet James would not get in, and it appears I am in for a nice plate full of enchiladas at the Barelas Coffee House for my daring wager. So James, rest assured, you did the right thing. So don't go changin'.

Waitress, could I have some sopaipillas too?

A WIRTHY BATTLE

A worthy battle is shaping up in State Senate District 25 in Santa Fe. Dem State Rep. Peter Wirth says he will try to move up now that Senator Grubesic has announced he will not seek another term. Attorney Brian Egolf is also seeking the Democratic nomination and he welcomed Wirth into the race by saying he looks forward to a "spirited debate."

That will happen. Insider Dems say both these guys are "Grade A' candidates. And there could be more. I don't see a Hispanic name on that list yet.

MORE OPINIONS

What if Mayor Marty gets himself elected to the US senate? Who becomes mayor? The ABQ Tribune's Gene Grant points out it would be whoever is city council president on December 1, 2008, and that could cause a lot of hysterics. And if 2008 is a big Dem year, what is the future of the state GOP? Heath Haussamen, also writing in the Trib, kicks that can around.

The political events since last week have been so earth shaking that the New Mexican's Steve Terrell says reporters and bloggers risk running out of superlatives.

What do you mean, Steve?

The pandemonium, mayhem and chaos that has engulfed state politics is sure to be followed by tumult, confusion, commotion and a big hubbub. An uproar is predicted after further turmoil and anarchy.

There, that ought to last you guys a while.

THE BOTTOM LINES

Many of you have emailed saying that we're probably having the time of our life blogging the aforementioned political pandemonium. Of course, we are. But the candidates are also enjoying themselves, at least some of the time as they play cat and mouse with the pundits and bloggers.

For example, I emailed Light Guv Denish asking for a timetable on when she might announce her intentions for the open US Senate seat. I joked that I would like to know because I was planning a trip to Paris. Her response?

"When do you leave?"

Well, I set myself up for that one and had my timetable probe deep sixed. The way New Mexico politics is going, I won't be seeing Paris, Texas in the foreseeable future, never mind Paris, France.

But who needs Paris when you have the fall colors painting our Enchanted Land, not to mention politics for the ages?

If any craziness breaks out today, I will be here for you. Otherwise, see you Monday.

Keep us posted Email your latest news, political gossip and comments.

Home of the exclusives. Home of New Mexico politics. I'm Joe Monahan, reporting from Albuquerque...

(c)NM POLITICS WITH JOE MONAHAN 2007
Not for reproduction without permission of the author

White announces
GOP Bernalillo County Sheriff Darren White, the prohibitive favorite to take the 2008 GOP nomination for the ABQ congressional seat, made progress toward sealing the deal when he made it official Wednesday, but he also handed the Democrats a gift horse when he opined on the unpopular and no-end-in-sight Iraq war, prompting insiders to predict a hard-fought battle for the chair being vacated by Heather Wilson who is seeking the senate seat Pete Domenici is retiring from,.

Here is the money graph that had the D's breathing a sigh of relief, even as they worried about his overal appeal:

"Unfortunately, mistakes have been made by those in Washington. And the Iraqi government has not stepped up like they need to. They must be pushed harder...We all want to bring our troops home. And I will work to do just that. But our troops must return in victory, because Al Qaeda must be denied a sanctuary in Iraq. We can't give terrorists a safe haven to launch attacks against America."

It was White's call for "victory" in a war that polling shows most Americans believe can't be won that Dem consultants will seize upon as they work to distract voters from the crime and public safety issues that break in White's favor.

"He had the opportunity to take a more moderate stance--to call for bringing the troops home in a timely manner. Something along the lines of Senator Domenici's July statement, but when he called for victory that was right-wing boilerplate. The Democrats will work to hang Bush and the war around Darren's neck, and his initial statement improved their chances of doing so," offered one of our Alligators with long congressional experience.

State D's didn't wait long to start the branding. After White's remarks at the ABQ Marriott, party chairman Brian Colón unloaded:

"Darren White served as the 2004 Bernalillo County Chairman for the Bush-Cheney reelection Campaign...White carried water for an administration that has spent half-a-trillion dollars fighting an endless civil war in Iraq that has led to the deaths of 3,800 brave American soldiers. The people of New Mexico have had enough of the failures of the Bush-Cheney Administration and will reject this Bush-Cheney insider..."

The "V" word is inflammatory in the moderate and Democratic dominated ABQ District because it gives no indication of when the war will end. The issue nearly cost R Heather Wilson the seat in '06, until Patricia Madrid's last minute campaign flub.

THE WHITE FILE

White, a native of New York, has been in NM law enforcement for 20 years, starting with the ABQ police department and becoming sheriff in 2002. He started out as a member of the Houston police department and also held down a job as an ABQ TV news reporter. In addition, he is an Army veteran, a strong selling point in the district. He has a reputation for integrity, has an affable personality, is a hard worker and knows how to handle the media.

White entered the public consciousness of most New Mexicans when he was named head of the NM Department of Public Safety by GOP Governor Johnson, but later resigned when Johnson advocated the legalization of drugs.

White cited the drug controversy which tore the Republican Party apart, saying his resignation supports his reputation as a man of integrity.

He also mentioned the word "independent" several times, as Heather Wilson often does, in an effort to appeal to Democrats as well as Republicans in his own party who are disaffected. Some of them say White believe he has been anointed by the party leadership, a particular sore point with State Rep. Janice Arnold-Jones who has toyed with getting in the race and says Republicans should not be denied a choice.

White's management of the sheriff's department will also be a focus of the anti-White forces, as well as the burgeoning crime rate in the county. There is also a psychological hurdle for Sheriff White if he makes it to the fall classic. Will voters go for promoting a sheriff, a relatively low-elected office, to the much higher terrain occupied by a congressman? And can White articulate his stands on a wide range of issues, not just crime and punishment? We shall see.

But for now formidable and firm opposition to White's nomination has not yet surfaced. Arnold-Jones and State Senator Mark Boitano are both looking at the race, but money is a major obstacle. State Senator Joe Carraro is circulating word that he may get in the race. But White has the support of the GOP establishment who have been positioning him for this moment.

Still, Carraro hit White for his Iraq stance Wednesday saying Republicans should be looking for leaders who can get America out of Iraq. "Just what is meant by victory? What exactly is that? We need a diplomatic plan to end this war and get our troops home," the ABQ West side senator argued.

While the R's have held the ABQ seat since its creation in 1968, it is not a birthright. With the state of the nation being what it is the local lawman who hopes to advance is already finding that enforcing law and order is much more black and white than the nuances involved in the tricky and treacherous politics of New Mexico's First Congressional District.

THE DEMS DANCE

While White was tossing the proverbial hat into the ring, former Big Bill cabinet secretary Michelle Lujan Grisham was preparing to throw her bonnet into the Democratic race. She confirmed our Alligator report from last week that she will announce her candidacy for the ABQ seat today, joining City Councilor Martin Heinrich and attorney Jon Adams on the campaign trail. State Treasurer James B. Lewis is also about to make a final decision. 2006 Dem standard-bearer Patsy Madrid also will be heard from. After all that's done we will have the main field, unless we get a wealthy businessman or woman to come forward.

Political newcomer Lujan Grisham, an attorney, will be challenged to raise enough money to stay in the race before the mid-March pre-primary convention. Heinrich has raised about $300,000. She said former state Dem Party chairman John Wertheim, himself a one time congressional candidate, will be one of the co-chairs of her money committee. Wertheim's wife, Bianca, is now working for the ABQ Mayor Chavez administration.

ABQ Dem State Rep, Al Park called in Wednesday to say he has decided not to get in the congressional battle because of "family considerations." In other words, there may be some planning for some "little Al's." It also means Park gets to do analysis on KANW-FM with us on Primary Election Night '08. With that kind of future, who needs a lousy seat in the US House of Representatives?

Unlike the R nomination race, the Dem one is still too much of a jumble to designate front runners. Let's wait until all those sombreros are in the ring.

THE TORTURE CHAMBER

Welcome to Steve Pearce's torture chamber. We're only half kidding. The decision by the southern NM GOP congressman to form an exploratory committee to consider his position for the GOP nod for the open US Senate seat has candidate Heather Wilson wondering just how long this Pearce power play is going to last. We can't say, but we can tell you about the latest scenario.

Top political minds in Washington and elsewhere inform us that Pearce might consider keeping that committee going for a long time--like all the way to January when the first round of Dem presidential primaries are held. Why? Because then Pearce could see how Big Bill is faring and get a better fix on whether the NM Governor will make a run for the seat being left vacant by the retirement of GOP Senator Domenici .

If Bill turns out to have presidential staying power and the NM senate race falls by the wayside, that could pave the path for a Steve primary challenge of Heather. If Bill goes south in Iowa and New Hampshire reviving the chance he would run for senate, Pearce could say, "knock yourself out, Heather, it's all yours." He would then seek reelection to his southern NM House seat.

MORE PLAYING WITH PEARCE

Meantime, Pearce is going to raise money so he can do some senatorial exploring things like conducting polls and consulting consultants. Political operative Josh Giese, however, corrects some information we originally put up about that exploratory committee.

"Pearce has to aggregate the contributions from individuals to each of the committees--his exploratory and his House committee. Any donations in excess of $2,300 would have to be refunded. If that wasn't the case, every U.S. House candidate in the country would also run for senate each year and drop out."

As for Heather she is hitting the phones--heavy. But my insiders say some R's are holding back on promising support and money until they figure out where this thing is going. Heather is in more of a money fix than Pearce because if push comes to shove the multimillionaire could tap his own bank account, especially if he knows Big Bill is not going to play.

This could get gruesome. Pearce holding up the flow of money to Heather? That's not torture, that's political hell. But we wouldn't take it too seriously. Our gal Heather has shown she can talk the green off a leaf.

So, Will Pearce run? The above scenario keeping that committee alive is quite clever, if he can stand the pressure to stop torturing Heather. An Alligator wondered aloud Wednesday whether Pearce hasn't already heard from President Bush or VP Cheney whose Republican National Committee is known to be in Heather's corner. We wonder too.

TRIBUNE REVIVAL?

Former political operative Tom Carroll, now a honcho with DW Turner PR in ABQ, called in from New York City to tell us of the news that he and Doug Turner have formed an investors group to ponder a purchase of the ABQ Tribune. The newspaper announced it will be going out of business soon unless a buyer is found. The afternoon daily's circulation has plunged to around 10,000.

Carroll and Turner are both Republicans. Would they start a local version of the conservative Washington Times, and if it doesn't work out, maybe the investor group could finance a congressional run by the thirtysomething Turner? If they like gambling, either option would get the adrenaline pumping.

THE BOTTOM LINES

Some of our emailers are crying in their beer that we haven't mentioned controversial State Rep. Dan Foley of Roswell as a possible GOP contender for Pearce's congressional seat if Pearce were to give it up to run for senate. The beer is now tear free: Foley for Congress! Now it's really getting wild...

This is the home of the exclusives and the home of New Mexico politics. Thanks to Mark Bralley for the photos. I’m Joe Monahan reporting from Albuquerque..Email your news and comments

(c)NM POLITICS WITH JOE MONAHAN 2007
Not for reproduction without permission of the author

Steve & Heather
Steve Pearce is giving them something to think about and then some. The GOP southern NM Congressman, in a move described variously as "ingenious" and "savvy," leaked word Tuesday night that he will form an "exploratory committee" as he continues to weigh an '08 run for the Republican nomination for the US senate seat being vacated by Pete Domenici and coveted by the already announced ABQ Congresswoman Heather Wilson.

"Pearce's move puts the Republican senate race on ice, and it freezes the jockeying for the southern congressional seat, too. It is an ingenious move. He will benefit from the continued guessing game on whether he will eventually get in the race. It sends a message to his district that he is a player and that this nomination is not Heather's to have simply for the asking," analyzed Dem pollster and consultant Harry Pavlides.

Rumors floated around the Internet Tuesday that Pearce would get in the race within hours, but my Alligators said something else was brewing. They told me that Pearce, 60, was in the field polling Tuesday night and wanted to take a look at numbers matching him up with Heather. An exploratory committee will give him time to consider the results, see if he can collect cash, and test support in a state Republican party that is divided over who should be their nominee.

INSIDE THE GOP SPLIT

That division is symbolized by the infighting over the possible senate candidacy of GOP state Land Commissioner Pat Lyons. The pros tell me in a three way race Lyons could split conservative votes with Pearce, handing the nomination to Wilson. Without Lyons, my experts, who have pored over the numbers, think the conservative Pearce conceivably could beat the 46 year old Wilson on the strength of blowout victories in the SE counties, San Juan county and by holding her totals down in Albuquerque where not all R's appear united behind her. But a united ABQ GOP behind Heather would mean the end of Pearce.

Some supporters of Pearce are claiming Lyons is a stalking horse for the faction of the Republican Party represented by lawyer-lobbyist Mickey Barnett and Chairman Allen Weh, as well as operatives with the Republican National Committee. They claim Lyons knows he can't win and is being used to pressure Pearce into abandoning the race.

Weh was recently challenged for the chairmanship by rural R's partial to Pearce. There was also a fight for the GOP Bernalillo county chairmanship recently that insider R's reported showcased the division between Pearce and Wilson supporters.

Barnett fielded primary candidates against other Republicans in 2004 and has been a longtime GOP player with connections to the Bush White House and outgoing Senator Domenici. He was involved in the ouster of Republican US attorney David Iglesias. Weh is a loyal Wilson supporter. She was instrumental in placing him in the chairmanship.

Some of Pearce's supporters are speculating that Pearce could turn Lyons to his side and keep him out of the senate race in exchange for supporting Lyons for Pearce's House seat. Lyons doesn't live in the district, but is a rural New Mexican who could make it fit.

None of our top analysts believe Lyons can win the Senate nod on his own, but right now he is in a prime position to get what he can from either the Wilson or Pearce camps for a pledge to either get in or get out. Lyons' supporters say the speculation is all balderdash; that he believes Wilson in particular is a weak candidate and he thinks he can beat her and that's why he is considering a run, not to carry water for anyone.

SHOW ME THE MONEY

Pearce is a wealthy former oil executive, with a net worth variously estimated from $5 million to $25 million. He could self-finance his campaign but friends say he is not of a mind to, although he could come with start up money.

CAN PEARCE WIN?

Pearce appears to be serious about considering the senate run, but he is checking his ego at the door. The SurveyUSA poll numbers this week show him losing a senate race to Governor Big Bill in a landslide. But the numbers do say he could beat ABQ Mayor Marty Chavez.

If Bill's Prez campaign sputters, he could decide to enter the race and either Wilson or Pearce would likely be doomed. Pearce has to bet Bill won't get in. He also has to believe that Democrats, including those in the camp of newly minted senate candidate Marty Chavez who think he would be a much easier candidate to defeat than Wilson, have it all wrong.

"He is conservative. He can be portrayed as an extremist. New Mexico does not have a history of sending conservatives to the senate," argued Dem Pavlides. "This is a very difficult decision."

Reflecting that difficulty, Washington and New Mexico Alligators we interviewed were torn down the middle on whether Pearce is only making a move to strengthen his statewide reputation, or whether he will actually challenge Wilson and engage in an historic battle for the heart and soul of the NM GOP.

The Congressman, who makes his home in Hobbs, will apparently have time to assess the options assuming he keeps the exploratory committee open for more than a couple of days. Most observers think he will keep the suspense going for at least a couple of weeks. That's fine with us and other excited politics watchers, but it's pure torture for Heather Wilson.

ALL DRESSED UP AND NOWHERE TO GO

In the event Pearce vacates the southern seat, look for Democratic Public Regulation Commissioner Sandy Jones to give the race a serious look as well as Dem State Rep. Joe Cervantes. Al Kissling and Bill McCamley are already running, and if Steve goes the list could grow even longer. But, as we are fond of pointing out, many candidates could fold at the March 15 pre-primary convention where a candidate is required to get 20% of the vote to make it on the June primacy ballot. If he or she does not, it's game over.

MARTY VERSUS HEATHER

If Pearce doesn't get in and Diane Denish and Big Bill also stay on the sidelines, then the odds dictate that ABQ Mayor Marty Chavez, 55, and Heather Wilson will face off for the New Mexico senate seat. If you're keeping score on that basis, it's Marty 1 and Heather 0.

Chavez made his formal entry into the race Tuesday morning, following Heather's hasty announcement on Friday. The time Chavez had to put his together showed. His speech, peppered with anti-Iraq war references, offered base Democrats some meat, in contrast with Wilson who made very general remarks amid signs printed for her last House campaign, not a senate run. In contrast, Chavez unveiled a new senate logo, Web site and executed a media plan that had him doing more than two dozen local and national interviews.

But if Marty and Heather are to be our warriors this will be one long epic and dirty battle. State Republicans didn't even give Chavez the traditional courtesy of announcing his candidacy without interference. KOB-TV's Stuart Dyson says they were passing out anti-Marty bullet points at his announcement at ABQ's Eclipse Aviation even as he spoke. If the R’s want to create sympathy for Marty, that's one way of doing it. How about the GOP puts up a new billboard: “New Consultants--Badly Needed."

THE CHAVEZ PROBLEM

Marty's problems with a small radical wing of the GOP is not going to be his major problem, at least not right now. It is with the liberal wing of his own party. "The most important number in the SurveyUSA poll is that 25% of liberal Dems are supporting Wilson in a race against Chavez. He gets 65%. He must increase that number, " argued pollster Pavlides.

Chavez did not offer any specifics to me Tuesday night on how he plans to win over the progressive wing, He said there has been a lot of "miscommunication." One thing he has going for him is that many enviros believe he will vote with them if he wins the senate seat.

"We believe he will vote like Senator Bingaman, so the more he talks about national issues, the better he will be received," one leading Santa Fe environmental activist told me.

Another analyst told me: "Governor Richardson is pro-business; Marty is pro-developer. That's the difference. He has to reprove his environmental credentials because of his incessant push for bridges over the Rio Grande and a road through the Petroglyphs, among other things," He said.

Beyond that, Chavez will have to raise millions of dollars. Heather Wilson told KKOB-AM radio's Peter St. Cyr Tuesday that she believes the Senate race--primary and general--will cost an astounding $10 million.

Chavez told me that former NM Dem Party chairman and longtime Dem fundraiser
Jamie Koch, who is also chair of the UNM Board of Regents, has agreed to co-chair his senate finance committee.

Koch is also a finance heavy for Diane Denish which the Chavez camp was pleased to point out. They believe this is another sign that they think Di is not about to join the Dem senate fray. But after watching the Machiavellian maneuvers of Steve Pearce, maybe Di will open an "exploratory committee" of her own. That would sure be a feather tickling Marty's feet.

Chavez is not exploring. He's in, and even had a few butterflies as he made his debut as a senate contender. "I was a bit nervous. After all, this is the United States Senate," he told me. Yes, it is, But if you listen to Big Bill, caught up in the heat of a Presidential campaign, you would think it was equivalent to the local Kiwanis club. But it may look better to him in the aftermath of the Iowa results. Or maybe not.

THE BOTTOM LINES
Bloggin' On TV
Whether a bloody GOP senate battle develops is yet to be resolved, but certainly it would help the Dems, who look as if they will avoid that fate unless Denish does the unexpected and risks the Guv's chair for a senate bid...If elected, Chavez would be the first Hispanic NM Senator since Joe Montoya who was defeated for reelection in 1976....If Pearce fights it out for the US Senate with Heather and both their House seats go Democratic and the Dems also take the Domenici Senate seat, the five member NM congressional delegation would go all Dem. The last time it belonged to one party was back in 1981-'82, says one former Capitol Hill resident. (That's me.)

The last Chavez to serve NM in the US Senate was Senator Dennis Chavez who, like Marty Chavez, was a graduate of Georgetown University...

I talked with The Politico about our wild US senate race. It's good stuff from top writers.

Insiders say before entering the senate fray, Mayor Chavez held a meeting with his department directors and told them "not to do anything stupid" while he was gone. Does that include sighing in relief that the boss is hardly around anymore?...

Can you believe all the politics? And the exclusives these Alligators keep coming with! Let's keep it going. Email your news and comments to the home of New Mexico politics.

(c)NM POLITICS WITH JOE MONAHAN 2007
Not for reproduction without permission of the author

Hints of desperation started to surface in the upper tiers of the New Mexico Democratic Party Monday with the release of the first public poll in the '08 US Senate race showing ABQ Mayor Marty Chavez trailing ABQ GOP Congresswoman Heather Wilson 48% to 44% and the still unavailable Big Bill crushing all comers in a mock match-up. Meanwhile, the survey showed GOP southern NM Congressman Steve Pearce performing much better against Chavez than Wilson--56% to 35% in a mock-up race--encouraging his supporters to lobby him to gamble and give up his seat and challenge Wilson for the GOP nomination.

I broke the exclusive news of the poll on our blog Monday and interviewed with KOB-TV's Stuart Dyson.

"Everyone knows this is a swing state, but a poll with Wilson ahead even after the US attorney scandal, the Iraq war and her ties to the most unpopular President in a generation set a lot of us back on our heels. She is damaged goods, but Chavez appears even more damaged. If they are the eventual nominees, the race will be very bloody and very close. This poll will only increase the pressure on Governor Richardson to get in the race if his presidential campaign doesn't get off the ground in January," offered one of our Alligators.

The Governor's numbers in the poll of 514 registered voters conducted this past Saturday and Sunday by automatic phone calling, set off a frenzy among Democrats who have been waiting over 35 years to take back the Domenici seat back. In the mock-up, Richardson crushes Wilson 62% to 35% and wastes Pearce 60% to 36%. Margin of error is plus or minus 4.4%.

"This is as close as you can get to certainty. These numbers are awesome. Bill can say he is not running for senate, and I won't argue with him, but this display of raw strength will have Democrats here and across the country clamoring for him to get in if and when the time comes," declared an activist Dem.

It's that contrast that tarnishes Chavez on his big announcement day. The ABQ Mayor can beat Wilson, but unlike Bill, he will have to heal the terrible relationship he has with the party's important left-wing and environment community. Chavez's problem is weak polling with Dems. His Hispanic numbers are not what they should be either. Wilson needs work with independent voters.

THE GUY ALREADY IN

The one candidate already in the race, Santa Fe developer Don Wiviott, made sure those liberal voters were aware that Chavez would not be sending him packing and in an email to supporters he took an indirect slap at the Mayor.

"Let me be clear: I am in this race to win..When I made a commitment to run for the U.S. Senate, I didn't accept the challenge because it would be easy or because of 'political' considerations....When no one else was willing to take on Senator Domenici, I was committed, and, today, I remain committed, " Wiviott said.

The political newcomer is predictably trounced by 25% in the polling match-up against Pearce. He loses by 17% to Wilson.

ROMANCING THE LADY
Denish (N. Mexican)
The boomlet to get Light Guv Diane Denish in the race, already a surrealistic scenario as she has never been better positioned for the governorship, grew downright bizarre as the polling numbers hit the streets. We're told one of the arguments being used to persuade her to get in the Dem Senate race is how being Governor would actually be a lousy job!

Right. The first female Governor in history and in command of the majority party in the state. What a depressing prospect. Maybe we should send Lady Di some Paxil and petition forms to get signatures for that senate run. But we don't think we'll need to.

Why would she want to roll in the mud with Marty Chavez in a senate primary and spend her days stuck in a dank room with two phones pressed to her ear trying to raise millions for a senate run? Forget the Paxil, it's enough to drive you to the Jack Daniels. Expect a statement of thanks, but no thanks from our Hobbs gal, probably by the end of Friday. Meanwhile, basking in the media sunshine is permissible.

The Light Guv was not included in SurveyUSA's polling match-ups, but she was beating Mayor Marty by 20 points in the ABQ Journal's recent match-up for the 2010 Dem Guv nomination. It's safe to assume she would give Heather and Pearce headaches, if not equal to those induced by Big Bill, certainly strong enough to have them reaching for extra-strength Tylenol.

WE WAIT

So we wait. We wait for Marty to start doing damage repair and for Heather to do the same. (That means they start beating the crap out of each other.) We wait for Steve Pearce to decide if his time is now. Most of all, we wait for January and the conclusion of the first four Presidential primaries to see how Bill performs and how he then views a Senate race, except in his case it wouldn't be a race, but more like a coronation.

Hey, they don't call him King Bill for nothing.

NOT BAD, TOM

Does northern NM Dem US Rep Tom Udall regret ruling out a senate run before the SurveyUSA showed him with impressive numbers, easily beating Republicans Wilson and Pearce in a statewide race? He beats Heather 56% to 38%. And he scores 55% to Pearce's 37%.

Tom lost the open ABQ congressional seat in 1988 to Republican Steve Schiff, so these polling numbers have to be especially gratifying. We see him keeping his promise to stay in his comfortable House seat for years to come, but he might take the poll over to where they laminate mementos at the US Capitol. It would make a nice keepsake. Hey, he might even show it to his daughter, Amanda Cooper, who is a campaign manager for Big Bill. But only if Amanda isn't too busy running a US Senate campaign.

THE WEAK BENCH

One thing we've learned from the epic political events is that the state's political bench is about as deep as Britney Spears thinking on global warming.

The new generation has yet to emerge. "They are risk averse," asserted one thirtysomething watching from the sidelines.

He has a point, but they also are intimidated by the amount of money needed for these congressional deals, and many don't even want to try. Also limiting the number of possibles chasing these once in a lifetime open seats (OK. Maybe twice in a lifetime) is the odds of getting on the June primary ballot.

Under the law, you must win 20% of your party's vote at a mid-March pre-primary convention, If you don't make it there, you don't get on. That means there is only room for three or four serious contenders.

Back in '72, when we had the last open senate seat, we had 32 candidates file. I blogged recently it was 32 GOP candidates, but old timer Hal Hensley now living In Texas emails the complete list and it shows 25 Dem senate candidates and seven R's. Not that we want a repeat of that, but it would be nice if we had more contenders who weren't depleting the stock of Grecian formula at the corner Walgreen's.

TRUDY'S TAKE

I turn the blog floor over to ABQ City Councilor-elect Trudy Jones who says she has a little bone to pick about a recent entry.

"Your statement that I told you that I would support Mayor Chavez on major issues neglected to report my entire response: When asked if I would support legislation by the Mayor, I told you that I would support legislation by the Mayor which I believed in and that I would also support legislation presented by Council that I believed in. That is quite a different statement from saying that I would support the Mayor on “major” issues."

Well, let's wait and see how much she differs with the mayor.

WHO ELSE FOR SENATE?

Martin Chavez has taken a body blow from the initial senate polling, but so has Heather Wilson. But they both remain the front runners for their party's US Senate nominations--by default. Extensive interviews with political sources across the state produced no well-known names poised to enter, excluding of course the aforementioned Denish and Richardson. The best politicos could offer was that a wealthy business type remains a wild card, but none have yet floated their names.

THE BOTTOM LINES

State Treasurer James B. Lewis is working the phones again on the ABQ Congressional seat, now that it has no incumbent. James ran back in 1990, I believe, but lost the Dem nomination then to Rebecca Vigil-Giron...Nothing yet from Michelle Lujan Grisham. I reported that she would get in the Dem ABQ Congressional race this Thursday, but that was before Senator Domenici's retirement announcement. What's up Michelle? Do you want to play, or not?...

ABQ Dem State Rep. Al Park is another possible, Martin Heinrich and attorney Jon Adams are already in. Lobbyist Bryon Paez who was briefly in the race for a while tells me he is not tempted to get back in now that Heather is leaving the seat. "I had my taste of it," he said...

How about Dem Bernalillo County District Attorney Kari Brandenburg taking another look now that Heather is trying to head to higher ground? Kari would have to give up a shot at a third term as DA to do so.

Oh, I almost forgot this one. How about if Big Bill files for the US senate in February, but is then named the Dem nominee for vice-president? No problem. He can run for both, just like Senator Lieberman did with Al Gore in 2000 and Lyndon Johnson with Jack Kennedy in 1960.

One more before we go. How about Diane Denish goes to the US Senate, Big Bill is named to a cabinet post and Secretary of State Mary Herrera becomes Governor of New Mexico! Happy Halloween...

Are we having any fun yet?

Email your news and comments and let's break some more exclusive political stuff right here on the home of New Mexico politics.

(c)NM POLITICS WITH JOE MONAHAN 2007
Not for reproduction without permission of the author

The first public polling since the political earthquake set off by the retirement announcement of NM GOP US Senator Pete Domenici shows that GOP southern NM Congressman Steve Pearce and Democratic Governor Bill Richardson would be the strongest US Senate candidates for their respective parties. On the other hand, the SurveyUSA poll conducted over the weekend using automatic phone calls to New Mexico households, shows GOP ABQ Congresswoman Heather Wilson defeating Chavez, but losing by a landslide if Big Bill were the Dem nominee.

In a mock match-up, ABQ Mayor Chavez, who will enter the Dem Senate race tomorrow, is defeated by Rep. Wilson 48% to 44%. Wilson, the polls says, would lose the Senate seat 62% to 35% if Big Bill were her Dem opponent. Steve Pearce beats Chavez 56% to 35%, outperforming fellow Republican Wilson. Richardson beats Pearce 60% to 36% in the poll.

Rep. Tom Udall who is not seeking the Domenici senate seat would defeat Wilson 56% to 38%, according to the poll of 514 registered voters.

Former Attorney General Patricia Madrid would run in a near tie with Wilson, said the survey, with Wilson getting 46% and Madrid 45%.

The survey did not include Dem Light Guv Diane Denish who is likely to run for Governor, but is being enticed by the open Domenici seat.

The mock poll match-ups were of registered voters, but adults. SurveyUSA says the margin of error is plus or minus 4.4%

I will have more analysis of the poll tonight on KOB-TV, Channel 4 at 6 and 10 p.m with reporter Stuart Dyson and more on this blog as the story develops.

(c)NM POLITICS WITH JOE MONAHAN 2007
Not for reproduction without permission of the author

Chavez
Marty Chavez, looking for a quick takeoff and hoping to discourage other major contenders, will formally announce his bid for the 2008 Democratic US Senate nomination Tuesday at 11 a.m. at Eclipse Aviation in ABQ.

The choice of Eclipse, an aircraft manufacturer that Chavez has courted for years and cites as an ABQ business success story, seems, in part, intended to send a warm and fuzzy to the business community and help Chavez with the formidable task of raising the millions of dollars necessary for the run ahead.

"Chavez is the big foot in the race right now. There is no other prominent candidate seeking the nomination. That remains the major threat to him, along with Governor Richardson deciding to join the race if his presidential candidacy sputters in January. The Mayor's choice of a location announcement seems more part of the money game, than vote chasing." Said one of my Alligators.

We might add that the Eclipse backdrop will hold most appeal to conservative Anglo Democrats and Republicans who Chavez believes were key to his 1998 gubernatorial loss. It is not a locale that has any symbolism for Hispanic or liberal Democrats who will dominate the June '08 primary.

I have also learned that Big Bill has communicated with the Mayor, telling him he does not plan to go for the Domenici seat and that "you should run." I am told the message for Chavez was left on an answering machine, as these two power players played political poker at the highest possible level.

"The Chavez camp, like the Heather Wilson camp on the Republican side, have to go ahead and assume Richardson does not end up in the race. The mayor will try to raise big money and create momentum by January so if Richardson does consider a run, it will give him pause as Chavez will already be looking good. But if he isn't, it would make it much easier for Bill to get in," said our veteran Gator.

Not that Richardson would be averse to hurting Marty's feelings. As one of the Senior Alligators (at least 45 years old and 25 years in La Politica) emailed: "I seem to recall Gary King getting into the 2002 Gov's race with promises from Big Bill that he wasn't going to run. The situation was different but don't you think any potential Democratic senate candidate is going to remember that?"

Well, they're sure going to remember it now. King got in the '02 race, but Bill followed and
Gary never even got a spot on that year's primary ballot. Beware the Alligators!

THE CHAVEZ CHALLENGE

Chavez has had major problems with the large progressive wing of the Democratic Party. They have been banding behind Santa Fe developer Don Wiviott who has pledged $400,000 of his own cash for the race. Can Chavez heal the wounds and start unifying the party, or will more candidates get in and complicate the matter and snare the Mayor in a bloody battle?

Just last Tuesday the city election results delivered a stinging rebuke to the Mayor who now faces an even stronger veto-proof city council. And in the Sunday Journal the union for city police officers took out a full-page ad criticizing the Mayor over his funding proposals for the department. It's a good time to get out of River City, if you can.

Chavez is hoping for the luck of the draw. No other major contenders coming in and Wiviott holding at 400 grand and not gaining traction. Certainly Light Guv Diane Denish is hoping Mrty's luck holds, as Chavez is the chief obstacle in her way for the 2010 Democratic Guv nomination. However, insiders say Denish is a factor dictating Chavez's early senate entry.

The Chavez camp sees a senate run by Di as a long shot, but she is getting pressure from national Dems to consider the race. By announcing before her, Chavez hopes to preempt a Marty-Di primary battle which she would be positioned to win, according to recent polling.

As for Mayor Marty, his Governor chances are now likely history--either he goes to Washington or he loses. If he goes down, he would stay as mayor until December 1, 2009, but A US senate loss would not be a platform from which to launch a Guv campaign.

Both Chavez and Wilson have put it on the line--Wilson more so--by giving up something to take their shot at taking the Senate prize. That tells us both would not cower when called on to defend our small state's interests in the World's Greatest Deliberative Body. Will others emerge who are equal to the challenge?

SOME POLITICAL POTPOURRI

Check out the Sunday Journal in which Heather Wilson asserts she never, ever has spoken with Senator Domenci about succeeding him in the US Senate. Really? If you believe that one, Steve Pearce isn't bald.

Santa Fe State Senator Grubesic has decided not to seek reelection. One of those seeking to replace the Dem lawmaker has already raised over $80,000, but I keep hearing that Santa Fe Mayor Larry Delgado may get in that race as well...Also, former ABQ City Councilor Eric Griego, who has been telling friends for months that he will challenge ABQ State Senator James Taylor in the June 'o8 primary, is now telling that to news types as well. He is in.

Remember Spiro V? The Republican we told New Mexico about who toyed with the idea of challenging Sen. Pete Domenici for the '08 senate nomination, but then backed off? He's back, and now that Pete is gone he says he wants to get back inthe race.

THE READERS BLOG

Lots of excitement and reaction among our readers to one of the most historic weeks in New Mexico politics as Senator Domenici announces his retirement and Rep. Wilson announces her candidacy to replace him. I'd like to share some of it with you, so let's dip into the e-mail bag...

Anonymous:

At his announcement Senator Domenici did come up to me and touched my hand...his eyes looked like my father's eyes in the last months of his life... I think that his staff is worried about that...how in the world will they handle this in D.C.? Fifteen months is a long time.

Antonio Gomez:

If there is a better place to get complete, detailed, in-depth NM political coverage, I'm not aware of it. Great reporting and analysis. Denish is sure to cut a deal with Marty in the senate race although I think she is the one politician who would really rather be governor than senator. The only question would be whether Marty would make a deal to keep her out of the senate race and then keep his word to stay out of the governor's race.

Lisa Breeden, state office director for NM Senator Pete Domenici:

Thank you for a really beautiful blog (Friday) on the boss. You obviously wrote from the heart. And most believe we old journalists don't have one. But it takes institutional memory and experience to truly understand politics...

Anonymous:

I was listening to the Albuquerque election results on KANW-FM and did not realize how out of touch you and your cronies are...You would not admit you were wrong when you predicted (Councilor) Harris would lose his recall. Then you suggested Bernalillo County Commissioner Michael Brasher will return and take the Harris District 9 seat in two years. Are you a fool or a moron? Brasher does not want the seat or he would have taken it two years ago.

Jerry Wright, owner, ABQ's Great American Land & Cattle restaurant:

Big Bill concedes the Prez race after a fourth place finish in New Hampshire, throwing his support to Hillary. He throws his hat in the ring for Senate, displacing Marty and/or Diane. Bill wins over Heather...Then, Bill gets tagged by Prez Hillary for Sec of State, steps down from the Senate, leaving now Guv Denish to appoint Mayor Marty as Senator, and paving the way for her to get elected to the Guv's chair in 2010.

Carol Clark, Los Alamos Monitor:

I just finished reading your Friday write up of the Domenici event. Your lead is so great and I was overwhelmed when you wrote, "The Senator took no questions. He was in the arms of those who will now finally reclaim him from a lifetime on the political stage."

I remember you saying you aren't a particularly good writer when you spoke to the New Mexico Press Women's Association...You're so wrong, Joe. You reek with talent. Thanks for your superb piece on yesterday's historical event.

ANONYMOUS:

Enough already. Domenici's votes have been responsible for thousands of deaths in Iraq.

THEY BLOG SOME MORE


Charles Coutret:

Thanks for all the great reporting. Assuming Hillary’s position continues to strengthen, and assuming that Bill wants the Secretary of State, then Bill’s future is in Hillary’s hands. One phone call from Hillary telling him that she needs another Dem in the Senate and it’s done. I don’t know that the decision is his to make.

Photographer Mark Bralley at 3:00 a.m. Friday when I posted the wrong date on the Domenici retirement piece:

Joe, I'm still with you...It's Friday, not Saturday....

Susan Walton:

Ride 'em cowboy! Some days I am simply proud to have been at school the same time as you, so I got to know you before you became the NM Dean of Politics! (or are you really called an Alligator trainer?)

Valerie Kimble:

You hit the high notes (Friday)--It gave me goose bumps to read about the dementia factor-- truly the end of an era. And you saw it coming from a distance...great reporting job, Monahan.

Michael Folsom on the emergence of Sheriff White as a GOP candidate for the ABQ House seat:

We, meaning the grass roots, have been telling the establishment that this was gonna happen for years. What we, meaning the Democrats, need is a smart, strong willed young female Hispanic. Lets see if one crops up in the next couple of weeks.

Frank Aranda:

You probably receive a million messages like this but I need to add mine to them. I can't tell you how much I appreciate your commentary on the city election and your daily blog. Incredibly fine work.

Andrew Leo Lopez on the loss of the ABQ Mayor's favored council candidates in the city election:

Marty ran for city council and lost!

Matthew Baca:

Hey Joe...your coverage is as insightful as ever. Tuesday night election returns, channel 13 analysis and you still put out over 2000 words that succinctly describe the new political scene...

Bill Naegele on the choices voters have in the ABQ House race to succeed Wilson:

I'm really beginning to miss (former ABQ GOP Congressman) Steve Schiff...

Helen Laura Lopez:

Your analysis (Thursday and Friday) is as good as you have ever done. Very thorough. I have made it recommended reading for my pals outside of NM.

Thanks for the comments. Your continued interest is the fuel that keeps this blog going. Email us anytime.

(c)NM POLITICS WITH JOE MONAHAN 2007
Not for reproduction without permission of the author

Wilson & Family
Heather has taken her shot, now the ball is in Steve's court. Betting among the top analysts in the highest stakes poker game in recent state political history was all over the map with a tendency toward saying Pearce should stay put in his southern congressional seat and not follow Heather into the race for the GOP '08 US Senate nomination, but nothing is certain until Pearce shows his hand next week.

At a hastily called news conference (Complete transcript.) at the ABQ Nativo Lodge hotel at 4 p.m. Thursday, the 46 year old five term ABQ Congresswoman launched her bid to beat the odds and retain for her Republican Party the seat Senator Domenici is retiring from. If she pulls it off, she would become the first female US Senator in New Mexico history.

Her brief announcement speech was platitudinous. Clearly, the point was just to get in the race as quickly possible. And quick it was, coming exactly 24 hours after Domenici announced he would not seek a seventh term in 2008. Unlike her first US House race in 1998, she begins this contest for the GOP nomination without Pete's public endorsement--at least not yet--and she said she has not yet sought his nod.

"There will be time for that." She said.

That Heather's event was hastily arranged was made clear by her decision to limit questions to just three. She said she had not spoken to Pearce about her decision, defended that famous phone call to US Attorney David Iglesias as "entirely appropriate" and made the comments about the Domenici endorsement.

The announcement made it live on the 4 p.m. news of KOB-TV and KRQE-TV, but KRQE bailed out after a couple of minutes as Heather delayed saying the magic words: "I am running for the United States Senate."

If the speech was written with the needs of live television in mind, it didn't show. Later, she won decent coverage on other newscasts.

"She didn't have much to say and it was thrown together quickly. But she was smart to go early. Being first on the field is an advantage and gives Pearce something to think about," analyzed one of our Dem insiders.

THE PEARCE BEAT
Pearce
Pearce is fielding advice from across the spectrum. He is in the House minority, not the greatest future, but giving it up and getting nothing is not a pleasant alternative.

The problem the R's face, say the pros, is their exposure.

"They have now vacated a US Senate seat and the ABQ House seat. That's two they have to defend. If Pearce gives his up that will be three. The odds dictate they're going to lose at least one of them and maybe all three. They are out on the limb, with the threat that New Mexico could turn into virtually a one party state come November of next year," explained another of our veteran analysts.

Wilson retained her seat by the narrowest of margins in 2006--under 900 votes--and has the least to lose. Her House seat was already at risk and the shot at the Senate, even if it starts with long odds, could turn in her direction depending on events. Her ability to make a quick and firm decision highlights the inner strength that has helped her survive in a largely Dem district. She is to be underestimated by only the foolhardy.

The New Hampshire native has also worked hard for a decade to appeal to Hispanic voters. At her announcement was famed New Mexican musician Al Hurricane, obviously there to send a message to a key voting block.

Wilson is a racehorse with blinders on. She can hear the footsteps of Big Bill and his possible entry into the race, but she isn't going to look. If he gets in, she's a probable show horse who
takes a nice paying lobbying gig. If he doesn't, she could take the race in a down to wire run against a lesser Dem.

Complicating things for Pearce is GOP State Land Commissioner Pat Lyons who is toying with a GOP senate run. If he got in, he could steal Republican votes from Pearce on the south and east sides, handing the nomination to Wilson. Pearce, like Dem Rep. Tom Udall up north, has a sure thing. And like Udall, Pearce could decide to fold when it comes to playing a hand for the Senate.

DEM SENATE POSITIONING

Chavez
On the Dem side of the Senate fence, as stunning as it seems, there are very few obvious candidates with statewide stature that the Dems can go to and feel confident of picking up the Pete seat.

My media and political sources were telling me late Friday that there has been a new twist in the thinking at the Democratic Senatorial Campaign Committee, headed up by New York Senator Chuck Schumer and charged with finding good Dem Senate contenders.

"The pressure is now being cranked up on Lieutenant Governor Diane Denish to get in the race. They see her as the strongest candidate and (ABQ Mayor) Marty Chavez as second best. They think her ability to perform particularly well in SE NM is especially important, and the numbers crunchers feel she has the best chance to also easily win the Dem primary," revealed one of our informed sources.

But this is a real longshot. Denish is still seen as resisting the notion of a senate run, but if she got in and lost she would still be Light Guv, although running for Governor in 2010 and winning would be much more problematic. Analysts I ran this scenario by pointed out that the DSCC is 3,000 miles away from here. They may not see how close Denish is to the coveted governorship in 2010, but she does.

Meanwhile. ABQ Mayor Chavez was preparing to go all-in. He has already told intimates as much. And like Heather, it's the smart move. If Big Bill Richardson does get in late in the game, Marty could always bow out and still be Mayor. Meantime, he starts raising money and healing the open wounds he has with the liberal wing of his party. Marty will be joining Santa Fe's Don Wiviott and Jim Hannan when he announces his candidacy next week.

DEM HOUSE RACE

The race for that open ABQ Congressional seat was also twisting and turning on the final weekday of this most historic week in state politics. Insiders said former Attorney General Patricia Madrid who told me she would be doing polling to help her weigh her options for a senate run is now also contemplating a second run at the Wilson congressional seat, but her husband told the Journal that is not the case.

Martin Heinrich and lawyer Jon Adams are already in; State Rep. Al Park is looking at it hard. Still, there is no major league Hispanic contender and some Dems think despite Madrid's meltdown during the final days of her '06 bout with Heather, she retains enough support to win, especially in a Dem leaning year. But there are many skeptics, some who guffawed when hearing of the scenario. Madrid's polling, if objective, should settle the question.

If Patsy stays on the bench, former Big Bill cabinet secretary Michelle Lujan Grisham would be the sole Hispanic in the Dem contest. Would more emerge?

HOUSE R ACTION

On the Republican side, Bernalillo County Sheriff Darren White confirmed late Friday that he will fly to D.C. Monday to meet with the political heavies at the Republican National Congressional Committee and elsewhere.

White will make it official next week, and is already preparing to shed some potential baggage. He recently signed up as head of Mayor Rudy Giuliani's NM Presidential campaign, but said when he becomes an official candidate he will give up that position. Giuliani's liberal views on social issues have not been popular with conservatives, some of whom are ready to hang them around the Sheriff's neck. There's an upside even to the downside for White. If he loses, he still gets to stay on as Sheriff, having been re-elected in 2006.

ABQ State Representative Janice Arnold-Jones is starting to make some noise about joining White in the race for the GOP nod. She is on the money hunt now and will know if she can come up with enough to do the trick in a week or two. How White will fare in the money department is also the topic of speculation.

MY BOTTOM LINES

We are going to be seeing bluffs, trial balloons, smoke screens and all kinds of maneuvers in the weeks ahead as a large cast of assorted political wannabes and those already in power positions go for the big prizes at stake. It should be a lot of fun, but be careful giving too much credence to a candidacy until they show you the money and the commitment needed in these big time races.

Thanks to KKOB-AM's Peter St. Cyr and photog Mark Bralley for helping to produce today's special edition blog. Email your latest news and comments from the link at the top of the page.

(c)NM POLITICS WITH JOE MONAHAN 2007
Not for reproduction without permission of the author

• WILSON ANNOUNCED FOR THE GOP NOMINATION FOR US SENATE AT 4:06 P.M. MOUNTAIN TIME AT ABQ'S NATIVO LODGE
  
• PEARCE "STRONGLY CONSIDERING" SENATE RUN--ABQ JOURNAL
• SPECIAL SATURDAY BLOG IN PROGRESS FOR WWW.JOEMONAHAN.COM
  

The past was honored and Pete Domenici was venerated, but the birth pangs of the political future shared equal time Thursday on one of the most storied days in the history of La Politica. I was positioned just yards from the Senate legend as he uttered the words that will change the politics of our lifetime.

"I come here today, to the site of the school I attended as a boy, to tell you that I will not run for re-election to the United States Senate." Domenici announced. (Complete transcript.) (Complete video.)

The atmosphere was one of nostalgia and pride in the native son who went to the senate in 1973 and went on to become the state's longest-serving senator. In the crowd were the old warhorses of New Mexico politics who were with Pete at the beginning of his fabled run. They included former NM Congressman Manuel Lujan, attorney Billy Marchiondo, "Smokey" Sanchez Davis and businessman Bing Grady.

Domenici, now frail at 75, kept his emotions in check and spoke of the work to come in his remaining 15 months, but the tears flowed freely among men as well as women. Members of his large family seemed to be bracing themselves as they stood erect behind the man who has insured that their name will be known as long as there is a place called New Mexico.

A VERY HUMAN MOMENT

Domenici and his wife, Nancy, seemed at peace. In introducing her, he described how she has recently been helping him to better pronounce his vowels and speak more forcefully on his weekly radio program. The humanity of the moment overwhelmed the audience.

The great wave of history represented by the occasion was brought home as Domenici explained how in 1972 he became the first New Mexico Republican Senator elected since Bronson Cutting 38 years earlier, in 1935. I had heard him say it before, but on this day the statement had my head swirling with images of nearly a century of our state's politics and people, and I admit it sent a chill up my spine.

Throughout the state, New Mexicans paused to watch and listen to Domenici's words broadcast over the three major television networks, Web sites and radio outlets. The audience spanned the generations.

23 Year old Scott Darnell of the NM Republican Party, born when Pete was already seeking his third senate term, described himself as awestruck by the unfolding events. 26 year old Antoinette Antonio, a reporter for KOB-TV, said the station's bustling newsroom fell silent as Domenici began his valedictory. How often does that happen?

INSIDE THE DEPARTURE
Pete & Nancy
Domenici chief-of staff Steve Bell, with the leader since the beginning in '72, described for me the phone call placed to the President by Senator Domenici to tell him of his plans to retire.

"It was a five to seven minute conversation. I talked with the President's chief of staff the next day to find out what had been said on the President's end, but he told me the President had the room cleared while he talked with Senator Domenici. That's something special," said a wistful Bell.

From the White House Thursday came the President's official statement on the Domenici retirement.

"Pete is a man of intellect and compassion have valued his counsel and friendship, and I look forward to working with him as he serves out the remainder of his term.”

Domenici, who reporters have ribbed for years for having an oversized ego, abandoned lofty rhetoric or self importance in summing up his acclaimed career.

"We left the state in better shape than we started." He declared.

Soon after, it was over. The Senator took no questions. He was in the arms of those who will now finally reclaim him from a lifetime on the political stage.

THE REST OF THE TERM

Domenici peppered his swan song with references to the remaining work he has before him. It seemed in part aimed at speculation that his illness could force him to resign, not just retire. If that occurred, Democratic Governor Richardson would name a replacement, something that last happened in 1962 when another NM Senate legend, Dennis Chavez, passed from the scene.

FILLING THOSE SHOES

Staff chief Bell also told me that Domenici "will not endorse a candidate at this time" in the contest for the GOP Senate nomination. He deflected questions on whether and endorsement would come in the weeks ahead.

In 1998, when Rep. Steve Schiff died, Domenici, in an unprecedented move, cleared the Republican primary field by endorsing Heather Wilson for the ABQ Congressional seat. Such an endorsement now would have impact, but not nearly as much as it did then because power is draining away from Pete. And that leads us to those birth pangs of the future that we referenced at the top of this blog.

HERE SHE COMES

Wilson, as expected, is going to be the first to jump, with an official announcement of her candidacy for the 2008 Senate nomination expected today. (We will tell you when it happens, so check back here.) Insiders report she has called a meeting of her "kitchen cabinet," a group of advisers, for a 2 p.m. meeting. Unconfirmed reports late Thursday had her holding a 1:30 news conference where she will toss her hat in the ring.

There was some grumbling among R's that Wilson's candidacy was being leaked even before Pete had given his official retirement statement. But stopping the speculation was like the Little Dutch Boy trying to stop the dam from cracking by plugging a hole with with his finger.

WHY SO SOON?

Wilson wants to be first in so she can have a shot at clearing the field. The only rival of consequence she possibly faces is GOP southern Congressman Steve Pearce. Washington sources were hinting that Pearce could be poised for a run against Wilson, but there was no way of telling what the final decision would be.

"I think it's 50-50," said one of our top analysts.

That seems like pretty high odds and I can see why after reading this statement Pearce made when asked about running for the Pete seat.

“We should not be jockeying for position, kicking him out the door,” Pearce said. How's that for a shot across a certain Heather's bow?

The two, as this blog first reported months ago over the protests of certain GOP insiders, have been, to use Pearce's words, jockeying for position in the event of a senate vacancy. Now the moment of truth has arrived.

PEARCE VS. WILSON
Heather & Steve
A Wilson-Pearce primary would be bloody, not only creating opportunities for the Dems to win two congressional seats, but perhaps increasing the odds of the Dems taking back the seat.

Pearce, with an unquestioned conservative pedigree, could start the race as the favorite because primary turnout is weighted towards conservatives. But to close the gap Wilson could use the argument that she is a stronger general election candidate.

Neither Pearce or Wilson would struggle to raise money for the contest. This would be a battle for the heart and soul of the Republican Party.

Pearce may be ready to make the leap, say the insiders, because he is now a part of the GOP minority in the House with little chance that will change. At 60, he has just one shot at the senate seat. But if Big Bill gets in the race, the pros say either Pearce or Wilson would be likely losers. A decision not to run will look brilliant by Pearce if the Guv eventually gets in, but a colossal blunder if Richardson doesn't. Hey, no one said this politics stuff was easy.

UDALL IS OUT

While not an easy decision, Dem US Rep Tom Udall found himself in less of a quandary when weighing whether to seek the Dem nod for the senate seat. Last night, the ABQ Journal reported he was a no go. That broke the hearts of a dozen or so hopefuls already lining up to become the nominee in the heavily Dem district.

For Udall, who recently assumed a position on the House Appropriations Committee, the politicos said the decision was wise. His importance to the NM Congressional delegation has grown with his new House assignment and a statewide senate run would have been brutal for the liberal lawmaker. However, he will probably still be a frequent visitor to the Senate side of the Capitol come 2009. Tom's cousin, Mark Udall, is heavily favored to capture a Colorado senate seat next year.

DARING WITH DARREN
White
Udall's decision means we will not get the political trifecta some were betting on--a turnover of all of the state's three US House seats, but we could still get two out of the three. And for sure we are getting one--Heather's. On that front, it is known by GOP Alligators that some Republican National Committee types and the faction of the state party involving lawyer-lobbyist Mickey Barnett and attorney Pat Rogers, will push Bernalillo County Sheriff Darren White as Heather's heir.

White told me he will start talking about his future today, after refusing to do so out of deference to Senator Domenici. But White may find the field has not been entirely cleared for him. The lure of an open seat could be too much to resist by independently wealthy businessmen or political types like ABQ State Senator Mark Boitano who told us he is going to take a look at a run. But White, having been elected twice and with the R's dealing with a so far weak bench, appears to be in a good starting position. He could come in as early as this weekend.

HURRICANE BILL

Following Big Bill is like tracking a shifting hurricane. It veers a lot. First, we see the door is open for a senate run, then the door appears completely closed. Here's an example.

"I am not running for the Senate. I'm running for president," Richardson said in a brief phone interview with The Associated Press.

He hung up before answering follow-up questions about whether he might run if his White House bid is unsuccessful. But his spokesman Tom Reynolds called later to say Richardson would continue serving as governor if he doesn't get the nomination.

"We are confident we are going to win," Reynolds said. "If for some unfathomable reason he is not the Democratic nominee, he will return and serve out his term as governor. We're not leaving any door open to run for the Senate."

Well, the door may be closed for Mr. Reynolds, but those seeking a shot at the power and glory of a political lifetime remain leery of any declaration flatly ruling out a run that does not come directly from The Man. Hanging up the phone doesn't exactly get them where they want to go, does it?

"I don't think the Governor knows what he is going ot do," commented former Dem Attorney General Patricia Madrid in a midday phone assessment. She says she is pondering the open seat.

The smart money is saying to stop listening to Bill and just watch the calendar. The thinking being that he is determined to give his long-shot Prez candidacy as much rope as possible, meaning he wants to have voters in the first primary states pass judgment on him. That will come in January. Richardson's friends and opponents seem unified in the belief that if the presidential run becomes a bummer, the Domenici senate seat comes back in play.

BILL'S TEMPER

Judging by that AP interview, the Guv seems irritated by the senate speculation, even though he is in fourth place in the early state Prez polls. But you don't get to where he has been without having an ego. While the brass ring looks enticing right now, it can get tarnished pretty quickly and the prospect of becoming one of 100 in the United States Senate can become very enticing. Stay tuned.

PLOTTING FOR BILL
You Know Who
This cat is out of the bag. No matter what the popular Governor says, February 12, the filing day for the senate seat will be the day the speculation on his possible senate candidacy ceases, and not one day before. (OK. If he takes first or second place in Iowa, we might not seem him for a while.)

The Alligators have even outlined a plan for Bill to get the necessary 3,000 or so needed petition signatures just days before that fateful deadline.

"His campaign could collect those signatures the day of the February 5 New Mexico presidential caucuses. Thousands of Democratic voters will be meeting that day and the campaign could get petitions signed right there," advised one of the Gators.

If they keep this up, I'm going to ask Bill campaign manger Dave Contarino to start cutting checks for the free advice.

SO WHERE ARE WE?

With Udall out and for the moment assuming that Big Bill does not make the run, the frontrunner for the 2008 New Mexico Democratic US Senate nomination is ABQ Mayor Marty Chavez. Now a good deal of our little ol' reading audience just let out a big groan. Marty is not the most popular guy in Dem denizens. But right now he's all they got.

Patsy Madrid tells me she is going to do polling soon to assess a senate run, even though some are advising her to take a look at the ABQ House seat for which she ran and narrowly lost to Heather Wilson in 2006. But other than Madrid, who is out there besides Chavez with name ID and money to launch a race?

What about Don Wiviott, you say? He's already in the race and he now says his campaign budget will be $2.1 million. He represents the progressive wing of the party that has no use for the ways of Mayor Marty. Maybe Don can make the dash, but a well-known Hispanic Dem seeking a statewide nomination is historically a powerful combination.

(Santa Fe's Jim Hannan is also in the race, but says he may drop out as a result of recent developments.)

HANDICAPPING MARTY

A His Honor running for senate will try not to talk about those bitter local issues that have been proven so pesky. The bet is Chavez can go liberal faster than his dreaded red light cameras can take a snapshot of your license plate.

But Marty is also worried about a late Big Bill bid. Does he form an "exploratory committee" and not go overboard with raising money until the February D-Day? Or does he go all-in to keep others out? It's like offering a vegetarian a choice between a rib-eye or a New York Strip. Neither option quite fits the bill.

The events of the past few days have so many angles they can keep you up all night. And they are, so let's keep going, and steer our Honda's back to the ABQ Congressional race.

My Alligators, getting a real workout, come with the news that former Big Bill cabinet secretary Michelle Lujan Grisham is expected to announce her Democratic bid for the seat October 11. She will be joining ABQ City Councilor Martin Heinrich who has raised a couple of hundred grand, but now knows the meaning of the phrase--reshuffling the deck. You might even say Heinrich will miss Heather because as my grandma always said, "Sometimes the devil you know is better than the devil you don't."

THE BOTTOM LINES

So with Udall staying put, we've gone from pandemonium to mere mayhem. As the reality of raising the ungodly sums needed to run an effective campaign sets in, the field in these congressional races will winnow rapidly.

I remember back in '72 when we had something like 32 candidates for the US Senate when Senator Clinton Anderson retired. But those were simpler times, We will have some political unknowns and perennial runs get in this time, but with a candidate required to have a ton of money and also get 20% of the delegates at their party's respective March pre-primary conventions, we may see candidates start, only to quickly flame out.

Congressional politics is a place these days where only the big dogs can eat. The bowls are out and filled with the best of chow. Let's see who ends up having the heartiest appetites.

New Mexico's political journalists are in a state of sleep-deprived euphoria. Barry Massey of the AP, Steve Terrell of the New Mexican, Jeff Jones, Leslie Linthicum and Mike Gallagher of the Journal and Kate Nash and Erik Siemers of the ABQ Tribune all attended the Domenici retirement speech while Heath Haussamen collated their reporting and his own from Las Cruces. Carol Clark of the Los Alamos Monitor came down from the hill for the big event. The three ABQ TV stations and their reporters have all hit it hard with a myriad of special reports on the air and on their Web sites. For the public it's a welcome break from what veteran TV newsman Stuart Dyson calls "the murder meter."

Thanks to Mark Bralley for today's photos.

(c)NM POLITICS WITH JOE MONAHAN 2007
Not for reproduction without permission of the author

TODAY'S 4 P.M. SENATOR DOMENICI RETIREMENT ANNOUNCEMENT TO BE BROADCAST LIVE ON KOB-TV, KRQE-TV, KOAT-TV AND KANW 89.1 FM RADIO. I WILL REPORT LIVE ON KANW PRIOR TO ANNOUNCEMENT AND IMMEDIATELY AFTER

• REP. UDALL NOT RUNNING FOR DOMENICI SEAT--ABQ JOURNAL
• HEATHER WILSON WILL ANNOUNCE FRIDAY AT 1:30 p.m.
• GOVERNOR DECLARES TODAY "PETE V. DOMENICI DAY"
• WASHINGTON POST: "MAJOR" DEM OPPORTUNITY
• RICHARDSON CAMPAIGN'S LATEST STATEMENT ON SENATE RUN
  

Sen. Pete Domenici Expected to Retire (washington post)

ANNOUNCEMENT SET FOR ABQ FOR 4 P.M. THURSDAYAT SAINT MARY'S SCHOOL DOWNTOWN ABQ.
Veteran Sen. Pete Domenici (R-N.M.) is expected to announce tomorrow that he will retire from the Senate in 2008, according to several informed sources, a decision that further complicates an already difficult playing field for Republicans next November.

Domenici has struggled with health problems over the last several years and has been dogged by questions about the role he may have played in the firing of U.S. Attorney David C. Iglesias in Albuquerque. As a result, he had been long been rumored as a potential retirement. Domenici's Senate office did not return a call this afternoon, but sources close to the senator say he will fly home to New Mexico tomorrow to make the announcement that he is retiring.

The six-term senator joins Republican Sens. John Warner (Va.), Chuck Hagel (Neb.) and Wayne Allard (Colo.) on the sidelines for 2008.

The most likely candidates on the Republican side are Reps. Heather Wilson and Steve Pearce. Several Democrats are mentioned including Rep. Tom Udall, Albuquerque Mayor Martin Chavez, Lt. Gov. Diane Denish and former state Attorney General Patricia Madrid. The dream candidate for Democrats is Gov. Bill Richardson but his advisers insist he is not interested and focused on the 2008 presidential race. Wealthy businessman Don Wiviott is already in the race and has put several hundred thousand dollars of hiw own money into the bid.

More to come on this opening tomorrow...

You didn't need Sherlock Holmes to detect the major theme of Albuquerque Election '07. Mostly everything ABQ Mayor Marty Chavez wanted was defeated and most everything he didn't want was approved. That includes super-sized victories by his two fiercest city council foes, Debbie 'O'Malley and Brad Winter, a decisive win by Councilor Don Harris in defeating the effort to recall him from office and approval of two ballot measures that strengthen the hand of the nine member council over this executive and the ones to follow.

(Complete results here. Video coverage here and here.

All this was done with the lowest voter turnout in city history. Only about 10% or 28,000 of the registered voters bothered to come out to decide four city council races, 10 bond issues and five ballot propositions. But that old cliché about your vote making a difference was never more true. Now, as they say, let's go to the videotape.

DANCIN' DON

It was destined to be an evening of blowouts, symbolized by Councilor Harris' ability to muster 66% of the voters to keep him in office. We didn't see him lose one precinct. In victory, he blamed the recall on Mayor Chavez, although he said peace could be made. Don called the recall effort a "witch hunt" but he would not say whether he will seek re-election in 2009.

Whether this victory will strengthen him or not was hotly debated during the late night hours on our radio broadcast, but all agreed that Harris' heavy spending--nearly $50,000, ABQ's traditional reluctance to recall any elected officials and the fact that Don was not charged with any criminal conduct, were key reasons for his big win.

DEBBIE'S DELIGHT

City Council President Debbie O'Malley crushed challenger Katherine Martinez in District Two in the city's North Valley, scoring a whopping 72% of the vote to secure a second four year term. She returns to the council in an even stronger position to challenge the Mayor who she has tangled with non-stop.

She told our KANW FM audience that the Mayor was gracious and called her with congratulations, and she expressed hope that the two could work together, but clearly her political position to oppose him has been strengthened.

WINTER'S WONDER

What can you say about the astounding total Councilor Brad Winter came in with? Well, you can say by garnering 81% of the vote over challenger Paulette de'Pascal he scored the biggest contested council victory in city history. He also said he had spoken with Chavez who beat Brad in the 2005 mayoral race, setting off a personality battle that has become nearly legendary.

"It's like a marriage. Both sides have to compromise," commented Winter.

REY'S ROMP

And how about seeing the suspense drain out of the four way race for council District 6 before the sun barely set? Lenton Malry came to our radio studio at 7:23 and gave the blow-out results for Rey Garduño from Bandalier Elementary and Highland High and the party was over--not for Rey, of course, who told us his organization was responsible for the 48% victory, easily eclipsing the 40% mark necessary to avoid a run-off election.

A mild surprise was the second place finish of Republican Kevin Wilson over Joanie Griffin. Wilson came in with 23% to Griffin's 20%. Garduño consolidated the progressive vote in the district from day one and never let go.

TRUDY'S WALTZ

GOP Realtor Trudy Jones basked in the luxury of being unopposed on Election Night. She even took time out to tell us that Mayor Chavez, who was having a night out of Halloween 3, would have her support on the major issues. If only he could get four more of the councilors to go along with her.

CHECK THE KING

That there was a keep the King in check mood among the miniature voting block that turned out was also seen by the narrow passage of a measure that will make it much harder in the future to launch recall efforts against elected officials. It passed with 52%. My analysts, Dem State Senator Jerry Ortiz y Pino, GOP State Rep. Larry Larrañaga and Dem Rep. Al Park, said the recall of Harris, who argued it was the Mayor that was out to get him, played a role in voters passing this tougher recall provision. Al and Larry said all that after eating a plate of crow for predicting on Monday night and on Tuesday's blog that Harris would be tossed out of office.

Another proposition that made it clear Mayor Marty was being given a telegraph was approval of the measure allowing the city council to appoint members to boards and city commissions. That's a first, and when you lump it in with the council victories and the Harris win, the 11th floor has some olive branch extending to do. Or, as Councilor Sally Mayer put it, "Marty better bring the whole tree."

Still, this is the same Mayor whose platform was rebuked in the 2003 city election and came back strong to win re-election in '05.. Now more than ever he needs the strength to truly compromise. The jig is up. He remains down 6 to 3 on the council and with Republican Mayer pledging to sometimes defect, he faces a possible 7 to 2.

Harris was careful not to gloat over his win as were O'Malley and Winter. It was not as if they received a massive mandate. And as the mayor pointed out the council is a moving dynamic and the votes on all issues will not be against him all the time. It will often depend on the issues. But, as we have written here before, second terms are often when elected executives see the chickens come home to roost. On Election Night '07 the egg layers were not just roosting at City Hall, they were threatening to take over the place.

TIPPING THE HAT

Thanks to everyone who helped with our KANW radio coverage last night. It was a blast. Field operations by Steve Cabiedes, Lenton Malry and Harry Pavlides--we called every race early. Photog Mark Bralley did double duty; Vic Segura was all over it at Government Center, producer Kevin Otero manned the main battle station. There's many others too numerous to mention, but their public service is noted and appreciated. And not to be forgotten are our generous sponsors--New Mexico's Enterprise rent-a-car, Ladera Golf, Bill Campbell Agency (Realtors) and Serrano & Sons Construction.

We started on KANW at 6:30 p.m. and finished around 11:30. City Clerk Randy Autio and County Clerk Maggie Toulouse Oliver avoided the Election Night curse, getting the job done early, except for the results from one precinct in District 4 that were put in the mail, instead of being sent down to Government center. Mayor Chavez and all the council winners and losers were generous with their time for the public radio coverage and their contribution is appreciated. I'll do a wrap up of the election action this morning at 9 a.m. on 770 KKOB-AM radio.

Reporting to you the early morning after, this is Joe Monahan in Albuquerque, NM.

(c)NM POLITICS WITH JOE MONAHAN 2007
Not for reproduction without permission of the author

HERE IS THE LINK FOR ABQ ELECTION RESULTS STARTING AT 7 P.M. WE WILL BE BROADCASTING LIVE ON KAWN 89.1 FM IN ABQ/SANTA FE BEGINNING AT 6:30 P.M.


Don Harris has put up a vigorous fight but two state reps and a veteran observer of La Politica gathered for my Election Eve special Monday on KANW 89.1 FM predicted that ABQ District 9 City Councilor Don Harris will not survive the wrath of the voters and will become the first city official in history to be recalled by the electorate. We'll know after 7 p.m. tonight whether GOP State Rep. Larry Larrañaga, Dem State Rep. Al Park and Dem politico Terry Brunner have it right, or whether Harris pulls off the upset.

It was Harris' fellow Republican, Larrañaga, who summed up the panel consensus saying, the "public is fed up" with ethics violations and are not going to be tolerant. Rep. Park said the recent NM Treasurer scandal and the one over construction of the Bernalillo County Metro Courthouse gives voters a narrative of corruption they will use against the 45 year old attorney.

"He let it snowball" argued Brunner, state director for Dem Senator Jeff Bingaman. "I don't know if he moved fast enough" to stop the momentum of the recall.

But ace City Hall reporter Erik Siemers of the ABQ Tribune, monitoring late-breaking developments, agreed that many voters will be torn today because recalling Harris could lower the bar for future recalls and also because the councilor has not been charged with any criminal behavior.

Rep. Park faulted Harris' recall strategy which emphasized that Mayor Chavez would get to name a new councilor if he is recalled.

"That's inside baseball to many voters. He needed to stress why voters should keep him. He needed to run it more like a regular election campaign," declared the ABQ Dem.

But what if Don wins? "He'll be as strong as an ox," said Larrañaga.

MORE EXCLUSIVE ANALYSIS

All the panelists decried the overly negative mailers used in the council races, much of which resulted from what I dubbed Q Gate--failure of three of the candidates to accurately answer the ABQ Journal candidate questionnaire.

All agreed that this is an important election for Mayor Marty. The panel told me after the microphones were turned off that the Mayor benefits from some of the infighting with the council because it highlights his more moderate views. But they also said he needs to pick up a council vote to avoid future veto overrides, or else he could be marginalized in his final two years.

The panel consensus was that Councilors Debbie O'Malley and Brad Winter should have no trouble winning re-election, but they felt Brad's campaign went too negative against an opponent who never really posed much of a threat.

They felt that we should watch the lone R in the four way District 6 race, Kevin Wilson. "He could come in and take advantage of the negative campaign going on between Democrats Rey Garduño and Joanie Griffin," analyzed Brunner.

Griffin and Garduño have had had the most active campaigns. Garduño is the perceived front-runner in the SE Heights district, home to many progressives. As I left the radio station last night, I saw Joanie Griffin supporters waving signs on street corners. It took me back to 1980 when the tactic was first used by Bill Richardson when he ran for Congress against Rep. Manuel Lujan.

OUR COVERAGE TONIGHT
Alligators On Radio
Our Election Night coverage starts tonight at 6:30 p.m. on KANW 89.1 FM and continues until all results are in. Besides Reps Park and Larrañaga, Dem State Senator Jerry Ortiz y Pino will join us along with former State Rep. Lenton Malry. Vic Segura will man Government Center where the votes will be counted.

MORE TRAIL DUST

The Trib's Siemers and I took a big picture view of Election '07 in Monday's edition.

There's a measure on today's ballot that would make it harder to recall elected officials, even though none has ever suffered that fate, although today Don Harris could be the first. Photog and City Hall watcher Mark Bralley tells us this ballot proposition was the brainchild of outgoing Councilor Craig Loy who was upset at the attempted recall of fellow Republican Councilor Mayer over the tough animal control ordinance she authored. That sounds like a rather personal reason to change the charter permanently.

TURNOUT

How about 50,000 for the turnout today? That would be about 18% of those registered. We had about a 23% turnout in the 2003 city council elections.

POLLS

The polls are open from 7 a.m. to 7 p.m. Voter info at 768-3030 and here.

See you tonight on 89.1 FM and Wednesday morning at 9 a.m. on 770 KKOB-AM with Bob Clark. And we'll also be right here Wednesday with results and analysis of Election '07. Hope you can join us.

Thanks to New Mexico's Enterprise rent-a-car, Ladera Golf, Bill Campbell Agency (Realtors) and Serrano & Sons Construction for helping to make possible public radio coverage of Election '07.

(c)NM POLITICS WITH JOE MONAHAN 2007
Not for reproduction without permission of the author

There will be a post-Chavez era in Albuquerque politics and its faint beginnings will start right after Tuesday's election results are tallied. But we have few clues on how the city's agenda will be shaped when Chavez retires from the Mayor's chair as he will likely do in 2009.

"Second termitis" is setting in. That's the disease most incumbents are afflicted with it as they complete the first half of their final terms. Mayor Marty is trying to control the infection by backing several council candidates in tomorrow's election, but no matter the outcome eyes will start looking toward the future and imagining it without a strong executive like Chavez because the odds are the next one won't be.

Most of the city council doesn't care for the Mayor. They find him overbearing and difficult to work with. But until now most of them voted with him these past six years and have done little to alter the direction he has set the city on. The fiercest opposition has been vocal, but infused with an anti-growth, condescending elitism that in '05 helped give Chavez the biggest election victory in city history. If it's true that powerful leaders are usually blessed with weak opponents, Mayor Marty qualifies.

How many city council roadblocks will be placed in Chavez's way in his final two years will be a key question as we count the election returns on KANW 89.1 FM Tuesday, but stopping Chavezism has to be a means to an end or the political becomes merely the personal.

History indicates the strong leadership of Chavez will be followed by a period of passivity. What ideas and personalities emerge to fill the forthcoming void will not be answered with this election, but when it's over that question will rapidly move to center stage.

ARE THEY EVEN NOW?
Griffin
Not again! After lambasting fellow District 6 city council contender Rey Garduño for not telling all on his ABQ Journal questionnaire, Joanie Griffin gets nailed for the same misstep.

Griffin, an ad agency owner, failed to disclose a 1994 state tax lien she and her late husband had leveled against them. The news came as Joanie flooded the district's mailboxes condemning Garduño's failure to disclose his 1989 misdemeanor shoplifting conviction.

Griffin said she did not reveal the lien because she believed it was against her husband, not her. Garduño said he inadvertently walked out of a department store with a telephone resulting in the shoplifting conviction. He said he thought it had been expunged from his record which is why he did not mention it to the newspaper. Earlier, District 4 council candidate Paulette de'Pascal admitted her college "degrees" actually came from an online outfit that required no class attendance. She did not explain that on her questionnaire.

The news that politicians omit negative facts about themselves is akin to hearing someone yell, "There's gambling in the casino!" All three hopefuls who got busted in Q Gate are first-time office-seekers which explains in part their trepidation about hanging out their dirty laundry. But by not coming clean, the rookie candidates paved the way for Election '07 to degenerate into name calling, anonymous blog blasting and mail pieces that gave new definition to juvenile delinquency. Not that Mr. and Mrs. Albuquerque are paying much mind to it. In this "modern" era they've seen it before and, to their chagrin, will likely see it all again.

BOYS WILL BE BOYS?

Adult supervision wasn't only needed in some of the council races. Up on the 11th floor of Government Center where Mayor Marty presides, there was the not too shocking news that city computers and phones may have been used for campaign purposes. Guys, if you're going to run Marty for Governor, you might want to take some remedial courses in Campaign 101.

THE ONE THAT MATTERS
Don Harris
The most important race on the ballot Tuesday is not a city council contest, but the recall election of far NE Heights District 9 Councilor Don Harris. We've never recalled an elected official since adopting the modern form of government in '74. There seems to be something in ABQ's DNA that works against the California mentality where everything is put to a vote and where even a governor is not safe from getting the boot at mid-term. There's also the not so unimportant news that our fair burgh has not been afflicted with a preponderance of crooks serving on its nine member council. However, if Harris is recalled, it could dent the inhibitions that city voters have had about such efforts, potentially changing future politics.

The Harris recall is the most serious we've had, and he's taken it seriously. I've seen two more mail pieces from the councilor, one with the screaming headline: "Sometimes it's right to be against something."

Harris, who was fined $2500 for campaign violations, has fought to rebound from the political grave the intelligentsia had placed him in. That fight, combined with ABQ's political DNA, could make a difference.

Not to mention that Harris is spending a heck of a lot of money so he can finish the four year term he was elected to in '05. Looking at election records, we found that Harris has raised about $48,000 for this recall and spent nearly $47,000. The report says attorney Harris made a contribution to himself of $20,000. He received $5,000 from AFSCME. The labor union usually supports Dems, but in this case they don't want Mayor Marty to get more power. If Harris is recalled, AFSCME which has rocky relations with His Honor, would see him pick Harris' replacement.

For what it's worth, the ABQ Tribune, Journal and the Alibi newspapers have all taken Harris'
side in the recall battle.

PAULETTE RETURNS

We hadn't heard much lately from Paulette de' Pascal, challenger to incumbent District 4 Councilor Brad Winter. But that changed Sunday when she fired off a final hours news release demanding an apology from Winter for what he says on the flyer posted here. (Click on it to read it.)

"Your mailer says "de'Pascal was even accused of embezzlement by her employer for allegedly emptying the company's bank accounts." I was sued by my "husband" for work I did for our family's dental practice. Since Brad Winter has memorized my divorce papers, he should know that. Unfortunately, this isn't the only mistake his investigators have made helping him put together his misleading mailers, and "I call on Brad Winter to apologize...I've taken a lot of hits from him during this campaign, and I've done it like a man. Now it's his turn."

Paulette titled her release, "Honey Bee Stings Back." If she's elected, will she sport one of those retro "beehive" hair-do's? And what about Brad? Does he have a honey-do list ready if he is re-elected?

IS PAUL REALLY DEAD?

Some think that Kevin Wilson has come up with the coolest political flyer this city election season. The council District 6 candidate does this take-off on the cover of the Beatles Album "Abbey Road." Of course, if you are of the Pearl Jam generation or in with the Beyonce crowd, a Beatles reference may not do it for you. But for the aging liberal boomers of District 6 as well as the Nob Hill cafe crowd, Republican Wilson hopes to make some inroads with his Abbey Road.

OOPS, HE DID IT AGAIN

It seems my favorite mistakes around this place includes repeatedly identifying ABQ City Councilor Ken Sanchez as a certified public accountant (He isn't), actually believing everything I am told about former Bernalillo County Commissioner Steve Gallegos and, last but not least, constantly misidentifying Conservation Voters New Mexico by another name, even though they have been a sponsor of this site for several years.

I did it again last week when posting a city council flyer produced by CVNM, so I am now subjecting myself to the traditional punishment of ten lashes with a wet noodle to be administered by CVNM honcho Sandy Buffett. And let me repeat: It is the Conservation Voters New Mexico. Even Ken Sanchez and Steve Gallegos know that. OK. Bring on that noodle.

ELECTION ACTION

Here's my game plan for Election ‘07 coverage. Join me today at 5 p.m. for our Election Eve Special on KANW 89.1 FM as I sit down with experts Erik Siemers of the ABQ Tribune, Democrat Terry Brunner and others to analyze the races and make these fellas make some predictions.

Tuesday we will be here with our regular blog keeping you up to date on last minute developments., Later in he afternoon I will head back over to KANW to kick-off our exclusive live Election Night coverage. That starts at 6:30 p.m. Lenton Malry will be back with us with us and have early results. State Rep. Larry Larrañaga will also be on hand, along with Dem State Senator Jerry Ortiz y Pino and others. If you’re out of listening range, you can listen to both of our KANW broadcasts at the station’s Web site.

Wednesday morning I’ll have post-election analysis and news for you at 9 a.m. on the state's largest radio station, 770 KKOB-AM. I'll be with host Bob Clark for the hour and we are sure to be kickin' it.

THE BOTTOM LINES

Big Bill raised $5.2 million in the third quarter. Here's the latest on that.

We hope you can be with us for all the fun and excitement as we help bring home another ABQ election. Thanks to New Mexico's Enterprise rent-a-car, Ladera Golf, Bill Campbell Agency (Realtors) and Serrano & Sons Construction for helping to make possible public radio coverage of Election '07.

(c)NM POLITICS WITH JOE MONAHAN 2007
Not for reproduction without permission of the author