Joe Monahan Politics Blog NM

Friday, February 22, 2008

More Primary Contests Take Shape; Former ABQ DA Schwartz In Hot Race For Judge, Plus: Sen. Shannon Robinson Draws Foe for SE Heights Seat 

Bob Schwartz's electoral luck has been lousy of late, but his political luck took a turn for the better this week when Big Bill appointed him to fill out the remainder of the term of retiring ABQ District Court Judge Mark Macaron. Now the question is can the Democrat turned Republican turned Democrat again reverse his ill fortunes at the polls and win a six year term.

Schwartz, 58, won election to two four year terms as a Republican Bernalillo County District Attorney, but he lost a close contest for ABQ mayor to Marty Chavez in 2001 and Republicans rejected his 2006 bid for attorney general when he failed to make the primary ballot.

Schwartz has served as Chief Prosecutor at the New Mexico Department of Regulations and Licensing since May 2006. Previously he was the Senior Crime and Policy Advisor to Governor Richardson. In the Dem judge contest he will face ABQ Metro Court Judge Ben Chavez in what could be a close contest. Schwartz has major league name ID, but Chavez also has a well-known name. In a 2006 survey by the ABQ Bar Association Chavez rated the highest in satisfaction. His father was a NM Court of Appeals Judge. Also, Hispanics tend to perform well in Dem primaries. Like Schwartz, Chavez is a Big Bill appointee. He was named to Metro Court in 2004 and in 2006 won his own four year term.

Schwartz is a favorite of the ABQ newspapers who relish his quotable quotes, but he has not sold as well with the electorate who have rejected him in favor of more traditional candidates. Has his time finally arrived? Judge contests are low-key affairs and name ID is often the key to winning. Schwartz's second face-off against a Chavez will be a race to watch.

STATE SENATE ACTION
Tim Keller
We're getting a couple of interesting Dem state senate primaries in the ABQ area. The latest is for the SE Heights seat of Shannon Robinson who has served since 1989. Thirty year old Tim Keller, a business planning consultant for government and nonprofits, says he is ready to take on the longtime incumbent because: "I think there is an opportunity for more economic development" in the district. He also cites health care and education as top issues.

Keller, a graduate of St. Pius High School, told me he moved into District 17 in May of last year, but pointed out he is a native of ABQ. The Notre Dame grad has won the endorsement of the liberal Conservation Voters of NM which had some success earlier this year in the Las Cruces city election.

The new contender says following college he spent a couple of years in Cambodia heading up a nonprofit group helping the disadvantaged. In recent years the city's SE has seen a burgeoning Asian population.

Robinson is a crusty old pro who has made foes in the left-wing of the party, but has deep ties to the district which includes the NM Expo. If he is going to run into trouble it will be in the primary with Keller. The district votes solid Dem in general elections.

Other Dem June senate primary battles in the ABQ metro include former ABQ City Councilor Eric Griego challenging State Senator James Taylor for a South Valley seat. Another South Valley contest pits businessman Michael Padilla against veteran Dem Senator Linda Lopez.

THE BOTTOM LINES

Our description of ABQ's red light cameras as "dreaded" brought in dissenting e-mail from readers who said many, if not a majority of the city, actually support the red light cameras because of the crazy driving around here. A non-scientific viewer poll by KOAT-TV does not support that view, but the cameras certainly have support among the politicos. None of the nine city councilors is publicly arguing the cameras should be turned off.

This is the home of New Mexico politics. E-mail your news and comments.

(c)NM POLITICS WITH JOE MONAHAN 2008
Not for reproduction without permission of the author
Posted by: Joe Monahan / Friday, February 22, 2008

Thursday, February 21, 2008

Red Light Cameras Make Tempers Red Hot, Plus: Fresh Analysis Of the GOP US Senate Race, And: The Tribune Funeral Is Saturday 

Bill & Marty
A bullying Big Bill and a cocky Mayor Marty are on full display in the skirmish over the controversial red light camera program, with a new low reached in the relationship Wednesday. Asked about settling his differences with the Guv, Chavez said: "He's got my cell number."

It does seem that the Governor has Marty's number, but it's not to his cell phone. Ever since Bill helped pushed through the Legislature the measure that would send to state coffers most of the fines raised from the red light cameras, Marty has been downright spastic. First he canceled the program and then on Wednesday he reactivated the dreaded cameras.

"Politics in the city is being run on emotion and anger," analyzed KKOB-AM radio talk show host Jim Villanucci who has been in the forefront in opposing the cameras.

While the radio talker's charge rang true, so did the charge from the mayor's allies that a newly vengeful Big Bill seems to have emerged since losing his battle for the Dem Prez nod. But it's the Guv who has the upper hand. Marty has been told by one of his lobbyists that Bill is going to sign the bill that could make the red lights go dark.

The two political players have long had a beneath-the-radar resentment towards one another, with both vying to be perceived as top dog. The duo had a run-in last month when the Guv charged that Marty had jumped the gun in making a major jobs announcement that should have been done jointly.

With the red light squabble becoming a macho thing, both Bill and Marty are apparently locked into their positions. Chavez is more determined than ever to keep the program going, even if it is to his political detriment. Bill has no reason to compromise when he has a proposed law on his desk that could zap the mayor and actually improve his standing with a good portion of the public. As for Mr. & Mrs. Albuquerque, they are tired of the red light cameras, but maybe more so of the red-hot tempers this battle has set off. Stay tuned.

GOP SENATE SCRAMBLE

You don't need a poll to know where the race for the Republican nomination for US Senate stands. Heather Wilson told us loud and clear this week she is the underdog and as a result will run an attack campaign against rival Steve Pearce. The ABQ congresswoman chose border security and saving Cannon Air Force Base in Clovis as her favored weapons in her initial foray against the southern NM congressman. Why these issues? Because Pearce's exceptional strength in his sprawling southern district could deliver the nomination to him even if Wilson, as expected, scores a healthy win in Bernalillo County.

The poll we relayed to you from our insiders was taken in mid-January, apparently commissioned by the state GOP and had Pearce leading 38% to 33% with a large undecided. Pearce is not that well known outside of his home district. For him to be ahead or tied, he must be delivering blow-out margins there.

Reports from GOP county conventions being held around the state this week confirm Pearce's strength in small town New Mexico. Those conventions send delegates to the March 15th statewide pre-primary convention in ABQ where Wilson and Pearce will face off for the top spot on the June primary ballot. Our spotters say Pearce has done well in Otero and Lincoln counties in the southeast and had a very strong showing in San Juan in the Four Corners. However, Wilson's strong showing at the weekend Bernalillo County convention keeps her in the game.

Wilson must landslide here and cut down Pearce's winning margin down south. Her attacks using Cannon AFB and border security are aimed at making southern inroads. She is using her support of the children's health insurance program known as SCHIP and Pearce's opposition to it to appeal to women and more moderate ABQ area voters. Wilson may not be able to persuade southern Pearce voters to jump ship to her, but if she can dampen enthusiasm and weaken turnout in his stronghold, she will reduce the pressure to win Bernalillo county and its suburbs by a less commanding margin.

ABQ TRIBUNE TO CLOSE

One of the great ironies in the life of the Albuquerque Tribune is how it was saved from death by the government then went on to become one of the more effective and aggressive watchdogs of the government. The Tribune, which will publish the final edition of its 86 year history Saturday, was spared from a Great Depression death in 1933 by a federally approved joint operating agreement with the larger ABQ Journal. Back then, long before the Internet and TV news, preserving a media voice was a big deal given how few voices there were. The government made the right call in saving the afternoon daily, and the paper made the most of the artificial life it had been granted.

We'll miss the Trib. We've been reading her since 1971. But we welcome what is to come--a new generation of voices who won't need government breaks or millions of dollars to join the marketplace of ideas.

The final and fitting words on the Trib come from the paper's owner, E. W. Scripps:

"As The Tribune passes into history, we take some solace in the knowledge that Albuquerque and New Mexico are better places to live today thanks to the newspaper's commitment to community service."

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THE BOTTOM LINES

Newly installed NM Dem Party interim executive director Josh Geise says he did not have a consulting role in the '06 ABQ state rep candidacy of Traci Cadigan. We blogged that he had. Meantime, Geise's boss, Dem Party Chair Brian Colòn, tells us the party is looking for a press secretary as it prepares for the historic election year. Contact the party if you're interested....

E-mail us your latest news and comments and help us cover NM politics.

(c)NM POLITICS WITH JOE MONAHAN 2008
Not for reproduction without permission of the author
Posted by: Joe Monahan / Thursday, February 21, 2008

Wednesday, February 20, 2008

Dem Head Claimed In Aftermath Of Chaotic Caucus: Party Executive Director Is Out, Plus: Special Session Talk, And: Tribune Will Close Saturday 

After a train wreck the scale of this month's NM Democratic Presidential Caucus, someone's head had to roll, and it has. Attorney Laura Sanchez resigned Tuesday as executive director of the party and Dem Chairman Brian Colòn immediately named Big Bill political operative Josh Geise as the new ED. Whether Geise will be able to help Colòn steady the ship remains to be seen, but the mob's thirst for retribution will likely be satisfied, leaving Colòn in place to finish out his term. Former State Rep. Michael Olguin, who lost the chairmanship contest to Colòn last April, nor any other prominent Dems, are calling for Colòn's head. After all, who wants the job in light of recent events?

Sanchez deflected rumors of her resignation in the aftermath of the botched caucus, but those rumors turned out to be all too true for the Deming native who was only on the party payroll about six months. She may be relieved to go. Insiders say she had been shut out from party decisions in recent days. Sanchez had to be lobbied to take the job in the first place. But there is no escaping that she and Colon were at the helm during one of the party's most disappointing chapters.

Geise was named "interim" director but last night Colòn indicated Geise will be helping him guide the party through the November election. "I am glad to have him. His experience as the party's coordinated campaign director in 2006 is especially valuable." Said Colon who added that Geise has already started his new job.

Geise has plenty of political experience, including stints on the staff of an Indiana congressman and in the '04 Prez campaign of Joe Lieberman. He most recently served as the early states director for Richardson's' presidential campaign. Before that he was on the staff of the "Victory Group," the political consulting division of Big Bill favored lobbyist Butch Maki.

THE GEISE FILE

While Geise is no novice and should provide a steady hand, he has had his share of losses. In 2002, he managed the unsuccessful ABQ congressional campaign of Richard Romero. And it was the early states--Iowa and New Hampshire--that delivered devastating blows to Bill's Prez effort as Geise served as early states director.

The thirtysomething Geise is credited with bringing home a crucial election win last year for the spaceport tax in Dona Ana county. In 'o6, when he served as head of the coordinated campaign, Big Bill secured an historic 69% gubernatorial re-election win.

Colon and Geise will be glad to leave behind the botched caucus, but they and their party face a new and historic challenge in 2008 as they contest three open US House seats and an open US Senate seat. If they thought party performance was watched closely during the caucus, they ain't seen nothin' yet.

SPECIAL TALK

Big Bill has one thing going for him--oil prices back near $100 a barrel and natural gas prices that continue to soar. Those are two huge income drivers for state government and despite repeated warnings from conservative state senators that the state's economic sky is about to fall, it isn't going to happen until these energy prices peak and/or we spend ourselves silly. Of course, a slow economy or recession could slow the collection of other taxes, offsetting the energy levies.

While Richardson could have some luck overcoming the money argument as he weighs a special legislative session for his health care reform package, another significant obstacle is the element of his program that makes health insurance mandatory. If he can make the case that the money is there and compromise on the mandatory aspect, he might get somewhere. The buzz around the Capitol is that the Guv could announce this week when and if he plans to call a special.

RED LIGHT RUNNERS

Are red light runners and the big brother cameras tracking them in ABQ really worth all the attention they are getting when we have armed robbery stats like this? Is the fixation on the cameras hiding the fact that the Duke City has a long-standing serious crime problem that demands priority attention? We're just asking, but we hope those seeking the mayor's job next year are listening.

Late Breaking: Mayor Chavez is resuming the red light camera program.

THE TRIB'S FATE

LATE BREAKING: THE TRIBUNE WILL PRINT ITS FINAL EDITION THIS SATURDAY

They're not letting the ABQ Tribune die in peace as seen by this latest desperate effort to breathe new life into the afternoon daily. This latest plan speaks of canceling the print edition and making the Trib an on-line newspaper.

The Justice Department continues to look at the plan by Trib owner E.W. Scripps and the owners of the ABQ Journal to end publication of the jointly owned Tribune, but continue a business partnership that has Scripps getting 40% of the Journal's profits.

By the way, Tom Carroll, president of the DW Turner public relations firm that also tried to put together an offer for the Trib, has left the company. Company owner Doug Turner says the departure was amiable and that Carroll wanted to go out on his own. Carroll is well-known in NM political circles, having worked for ABQ Mayor Marty Chavez as well as serving a short stint as executive director of the NM GOP.

THE BOSS

This is a rare photo we thought you would enjoy. It's a pic from the Rio Grande Sun of legendary Rio Arriba County Democratic political boss Emilio Naranjo. The 91 year old former state senator is shown casting his ballot at the February 5th NM Dem Prez caucus. Naranjo was dethroned as boss in the 90's, but he was with the winner this time. He said he voted for Hillary who carried the state and Rio Arriba.

This blog is for you. E-mail your political news and comments.

(c)NM POLITICS WITH JOE MONAHAN 2008
Not for reproduction without permission of the author
Posted by: Joe Monahan / Wednesday, February 20, 2008

Tuesday, February 19, 2008

Iraq Then And Now: Congress Hopeful White Tones Down War Rhetoric, Plus: Guv & GOP Leader Embrace, And: Fixing the Cockeyed Caucus 

Darren White
It appears the campaign of ABQ GOP US House hopeful Darren White has figured out that calling for "victory" in Iraq is not the most persuasive argument to attract needed Democratic votes. When he announced his candidacy in October the Bernalillo County Sheriff had Dems jumping out of their chairs when he said: "Our troops must return in victory." Not that there's anything wrong with victory. It's just that most voters in the moderate district don't think of victory in the way White intimated. They want the war wound down, not up. It appears White's campaign has recognized their blunder because in his most recent statement on his Web site the "V word" is gone with the wind.

In October the congressional hopeful said:

"Unfortunately, mistakes have been made by those in Washington. And the Iraqi government has not stepped up like they need to. They must be pushed harder...We all want to bring our troops home. And I will work to do just that. But our troops must return in victory, because Al Qaeda must be denied a sanctuary in Iraq...

Fast forward to February:

It is critical that we deny al-Qaeda a sanctuary in Iraq, which would only provide the terrorists a safe haven to launch attacks against America. Let’s also be honest, success in Iraq involves much more than military action alone. To bring our troops home, we must implement measures of accountability, both militarily and politically...."

The war has taken on renewed importance in the ABQ congressional race because probable GOP Prez nominee John McCain has said American troops could be stationed there for 100 years--a statement the Dems are sure to try to hang around the neck of White. Because the Sheriff is most identified with the public safety and the national security, any inroads the Dems could make on the issue could be unusually rewarding. White's move to notch down the Iraq rhetoric seems to be recognition of that. It's not only Dems watching. ABQ GOP State Senator Joe Carraro is also seeking the GOP nomination.

MOVING TO THE MIDDLE

Another prominent Republican, State House Minority Whip Dan Foley, is also looking for some room in the political middle. The controversial lawmaker faces a stiff June primary challenge from retired FBI Agent Dennis Kintigh, but Dem Guv Bill Richardson recently gave Foley some political cover as the two worked together on a Chaves county jobs issue. Foley has been criticized for jeopardizing the Chaves county economy by constantly battling with the Dems and the Guv.

The Guv has been able to placate House R's like Foley, but that has not been the case with the leaders of the Dem majority in the state senate. And they are the ones with the real power.

THE SANDEROFF SOLUTION

We carved up dinner at Yanni's the other night with veteran NM pollster Brian Sanderoff and Dem consultant Harry Pavlides as we conducted a post-mortem of the botched NM Dem Presidential caucus. There was plenty to guffaw about from that ill-fated election, but we also talked about solutions, particularly when it comes to those provisional ballots.

Sanderoff had an interesting proposal: Why don't we conduct Election Day voting like our early voting? When you go to an early voting location, there is a computer in which your name is entered. It determines what precinct you live in and what ballot you shall receive listing the offices you are eligible to vote in. If we had computers at each voting site on Election Day doing the same sorting, he argued, provisional voting would go way down. A major reason for provisional ballots is voters showing up at the wrong voting location.

"We are a state with close elections. The provisionals often come in to play, but can't be counted on Election Night. The fewer we have cast, the earlier we would know the results of the election." Sanderoff said.

Pavlides noted the Legislature would have to put up the money for the computers, but we all agreed it could be a significant step toward solving the provisional problem and restoring confidence in New Mexico elections.

THE BOTTOM LINES

Who voted for whom? And why? The AP takes an in-depth look at NM voting patterns in the Prez caucus based on exit polling.

E-mail your news and comments and stop by again soon.

(c)NM POLITICS WITH JOE MONAHAN 2008
Not for reproduction without permission of the author
Posted by: Joe Monahan / Tuesday, February 19, 2008

Monday, February 18, 2008

New Clash Between Bill & Di; This Time Over Health Care Measure, And: Special Session Debated, Plus: Wilson Fires At Pearce During GOP Meeting 

Di & Bill Face-off
Tempers are still as hot as a freshly fired pistol following the rancorous 30 day session of the NM Legislature. Fresh finger-pointing has broken out between Governor Richardson and Lieutenant Governor Diane Denish, with the Guv's inner circle charging that the state's #2 hid out during the health care debate. They also charged that she got too cozy with senators who opposed the Guv's controversial and complicated plan.

"She can't stand up for health care, and she wants to be governor?" fired one sniper under the cover of anonymity. The Di detractors accuse her of playing footsie with Senate powerhouse Tim Jennings and other conservative southerners to curry favor with them to enhance her 2010 run for Guv. The whispering circuit on this is loud enough that Lady Di chose to answer the anonymous charges on the record.

"...I worked hard and used the public mike as often as possible..to advocate for Health Solutions and to build public understanding that having 400,000 uninsured New Mexicans is bad for our economy...It was the common thread in all my public appearances...It became increasingly clear that consensus was going to be difficult...The chairman of Senate Finance voiced concern about the revenue picture...

"The Governor's bill was watered down dramatically on the House side and came to the Senate just days before the end of the session...A full hearing for the amended bill never happened. In the meantime, the Governor threatened a veto based on the Health Care Authority revisions in the bill. All of this made progress difficult...

"As to Senator Jennings and the sad remark about footsie--Senator Jennings did a remarkable job in the face of the enormous personal challenge of his wife's illness. (Jennings' wife, Patty, is stricken with cancer) I am his friend and proud of it. Our fathers were friends and that has passed to the next generation.,..but I don't agree with him on every issue nor he with me."

The deep freeze in the Bill-Di relationship harkens back to the famous split between Governor Bruce King and Lt. Gov. Casey Luna in the early 90's. In '94, Casey actually ran against Bruce in the Democratic primary. He lost, but it contributed to King's defeat in the fall. Big Bill is in his final term so that can't happen this time.

Denish isn't about to lay down on the tracks for a piece of legislation that had train-wreck written all over it, but she can't risk straying too far from the Guv's stable. He is, as they say, still the man. Not having a strong primary opponent in 2010 is a luxury Di would be blessed to keep.

GUESSING ON THE SPECIAL

Meanwhile, the noggin scratching continues on what, if anything, Big Bill has up his sleeve if and when he calls a special session of the Legislature to focus solely on his failed health care reform package. Walt Rubel of the Las Cruces Sun-News has the conventional wisdom:

Richardson will call a special session in a couple of weeks, at which time the House will come in and dutifully pass the same bill that it just approved this session. The Senate will come in, vote to sine die and go home. In the past, the process would have repeated itself a couple of times before the Senate finally relented and gave Richardson some kind of face-saving compromise. This time, I'm not sure that he even gets that.

The Guv says he will seek exactly the same plan that failed in the regular session. Will he really stick with that position? The talk has been of a special before March 5th. That's when the Guv has to act on the giant capital outlay package. The thinking being that he could use a veto threat of that bill while lawmakers deliberated. But he could still retain that leverage even if he chose to hold a special session in June following the primary election. Under that scenario, he could veto the capital outlay package before March 5th, but cut a deal with lawmakers to pass a new one at the June special in tandem with a health care deal.

Or how about this: No special and the Guv allows things to cool down until the '09 sixty day session. Don't rule it out. If Richardson thinks he has painted himself in the corner, he won't let the paint dry. There are various face-saving ways he could back out of a special and move the conversation to more agreeable topics. As the late Ernie Mills would say: Don't say we didn't tell you.

SUPER BILL

Big Bill is one of those much talked about "superdelegates" to the Dem national convention. With the Obama-Clinton race so tight, there has been much speculation that these delegates--NM has 12 of them--could ultimately decide the Dem nomination. Who is Bill supporting? He is not saying, but from what he told the Sunday New York Times, it is clear his vote is tipping toward Hillary:

Richardson, in an interview, would not say whom he would vote for, but he clearly sided with Mr. Obama in the philosophical debate over how super delegates should decide how to vote.

“It should reflect the vote of my state, it should represent the vote of my constituency,” he said. “It shouldn’t be because you’re a fund-raiser or a big-shot delegate. Superdelegates should reflect their state or constituency. If super delegates decide this nomination, it’s going to look like big-shot politicians and fat-cats decided who should be president.”

But if Mr. Richardson sides with Mr. Obama on what should drive the decision of the super delegates, that position would seem to leave him more likely to become a Clinton superdelegate: Mrs. Clinton won New Mexico by a slight margin.

As for the other New Mexico supers, here is the lowdown on them.

GOP SENATE CLASH

Weekend political action as Bernalillo and Sandoval county Republicans held meetings to pick delegates to the statewide mid-March pre-primary convention. All eyes were on US Senate candidates Heather Wilson and Steve Pearce. Our GOP Alligators report there was some good news for each. Heather, teaming with ABQ GOP Congressional candidate Darren White who is seeking the seat she is giving up to pursue the Senate seat, scored a big win in the Bernalillo delegate count. Pearce was unable to dent her in her home base. Meanwhile, Pearce picked up more delegates than expected in neighboring, but much smaller Sandoval county.

The only poll we've seen is a mid-January survey that had Steve at 38% and Heather at 33%, but the poll's margin of error was enough to make the race dead even. Wilson was acting like the underdog in her Sunday speech before several hundred GOP delegates at the ABQ Marriott. Wilson attacked Pearce for allegedly supporting the proposal to mothball Cannon Air Force Base in Clovis. The Pearce campaign points out there were high profile news releases showing the state's entire congressional delegation supported converting Cannon to a new mission, and that's what was approved. KOAT-TV news reported Pearce chose not to fire any volleys at Heather.

The ABQ US House primary between Sheriff White and ABQ GOP Senator Joe Carraro was also on the weekend agenda. White is perceived to have a wide lead. Talk at the Marriott was whether Carraro will be able to win the required 20% of the delegates at the March pre-primary to get on the June ballot. If he doesn't, he would have to gather additional petition signatures. One bit of good news for Carraro: Big Bill is expected to sign legislation that lets candidates who fail to get 20% of the delegates at their pre-primaries to gather additional signatures to get on the ballot. The law had been off the books for a year.

THE BOTTOM LINES

Did we say "Good Riddons," instead of the correct, "Good Riddance!" Through the marvels of digital correction that error has been banished from the Friday blog. Now, if we only could only do that with our unwritten errors.

E-mail your latest news and comments.

(c)NM POLITICS WITH JOE MONAHAN 2008
Not for reproduction without permission of the author
Posted by: Joe Monahan / Monday, February 18, 2008

Friday, February 15, 2008

The Political Cup Runneth Over: Final NM Prez Election Results; Session Ends; Guv Will Call Special, Plus: Is ABQ Dreaded Red Light Program Finished? 

Hillary In ABQ-Wins NM
Some of the busiest political weeks ever in our fair state will take place this year and we just finished one of them. On Thursday alone the final NM Dem Presidential caucus results were finally reported and showed Hillary Clinton the winner; a 30 day session of the NM Legislature adjourned; Governor Richardson immediately announced he will call a special session to try to get a health care bill; and one of the most loathed state public programs--ABQ's red light cameras--may have been dealt a fatal blow by last minute Legislative action. Let's go to the videotape...

First, the cataclysmic caucus. It was perhaps appropriate that the vote count ended as it began last Tuesday night--as a public relations disaster. Democratic Party Chairman Brian Colòn called a news conference for mid-afternoon to announce the long-awaited results, but instead of giving them, he embarked on a long, winding and weirdly written spin speech that drew the wrath of viewers and pundits. Colòn's ill-advised efforts to try to explain the election disaster away was smacked down at its conclusion by CNN commentator Jack Cafferty whose network aired the speech in its entirety.

"I slipped into a coma listening to that guy in New Mexico...That guy in New Mexico, please, he was awful!" exclaimed Cafferty to a national audience.

The super-sarcastic national Web site, the Wonkette, piled on:

...A New Mexico Democratic official — Brian “Listening To You Is Worse Than Having Cancer Of The” Colon — just declared Hillary Clinton the winner of the state’s caucuses...

And they came in the e-mail. Annie Chavez of D.C.:

"The way Mr. Colon conducted himself, deliberately extending a short two or three sentence announcement to a 10 minute, self-indulgent mess, was an embarrassment for the state. Mr. Colon's arrogance was entirely inappropriate and lacked any recognition that the delay in announcing the results had already given the state a black-eye and made it the butt of jokes.


It was yet another low point in the botched presidential election. Fortunately, it was the final one. The entire Colòn speech and full and final results are on the KRQE-TV site.

THE RESULTS--REALLY


As our Alligators predicted, Hillary won the state with 73,105 votes, or 48.8 percent to Obama's 71,396, or 47.6 percent. Turnout among NM Democrats was 149,779 of the 527,0678 registered. That is a healthy turnout of 28.4% for this type of election and bodes well for Dem turnout in November.

Hillary picked up an additional NM delegate for the win, giving her 14 to Obama's 12. Twelve other delegates go to the Denver convention unpledged. With the way the Prez race is going, every delegate counts.

Party insiders tell us one big reason the provisional vote total bloated to over 17,000 was that many of the voter lists assembled by the party for the 184 voting sites did not contain the correct precincts. Many longtime Democratic voters showed up at the polls, but their names were not on their precinct list, so they had to cast provisional ballots. In the end, less than half of the provisional ballots were found to be valid.

As for Chairman Colòn, the election disaster was not entirely his fault. He is a stand-up guy who cares deeply about the state. Heck, I bet even tough old NM GOP Chair Allen Weh feels bad for him. But Colòn's final caucus act of maddeningly rambling on without giving the results provided a fitting end to an episode we'll always remember, but also always try to forget.

It can always be worse. UNM Law School Professor James Ellis emails in with the news that there are still counting votes from the California Prez primary.

CAN THE GUV TURN IT?

Our state's Governor has also had his share of media woes lately, but we may have spotted the first glimmer of a turnaround, or at least his strategy to turn things around. The 30 day Legislative session that ended at noon yesterday basically ignored what he wanted. The Guv will call the lawmakers back into special session. He didn't say when. He did tell reporters that he will take his show on the road and try to build public support for his controversial health care reform.

Now, with Bill Richardson a road show could be a quick day trip to Chama with Tucumcari thrown in, but if he really wants legislators to listen to him, he has to get their constituents involved. The special will have to wait. In the portions of his news conference we saw and from a report given to us from the scene by KOB-TV's Stuart Dyson, Richardson finally makes the arguments he should have been making before the session but was too busy to because of his presidential campaign.

He said ours is "a growing state" with a surplus whose citizens deserve universal health care. He called himself an "optimist," not a pessimist, who wants to get things done. Of course, leading senators say we don't have a growing economy and the surplus is threatened.

But Bill Richardson is dangerous with a microphone in his hand. The conventional wisdom says he is dead money on this one, but if he puts behind him his temper tantrums over his lost Prez dreams, he may have a shot.

Former NM Attorney General Patsy Madrid. who has often tangled with Big Bill, also sensed the Guv may have hit bottom. "They (the Legislature) should not underestimate him. He spent 14 years in the Congress and understands the legislative process," she told me.

He also has as leverage that $384 million pork bill that state lawmakers are itching for him to sign.

(Madrid will travel to San Anonio, TX this weekend to campaign for Obama. Light Guv Denish is headed to West Texas for Hillary.)

BILL'S CHALLENGE

Richardson may already have the hearts of the public, but he doesn't have their minds. Fiscal conservatives like Dem State Sen. John Arthur Smith and GOP Rep. Justine Fox-Young have made a convincing argument that the state can't afford what Richardson wants. They speak of a national recession and forecasts for lower state revenues. Fox-Young summed it up simply in a recent TV interview: "People fear this will mean a tax incease." The Guv is going to have to address those concerns before the public and key legislators bend.

Lest we forget, this is a Governor who has shepherded more legislation through the Roundhouse than probably any other in history. Teacher pay raises, income tax cuts, the Rail Runner, the Spaceport. All of these were at least as vigorously opposed as universal health care, but all are now on the law books. Yes, he is technically a lame-duck, but so is George Bush and you don't see the Dems ending the Iraq war. In the modern era, even slowly fading executive power can be marshalled and projected more broadly than in the pre-media days.

If Richardson is ready to regain his footing and to really start fighting, not fretting, the debate over universal health care may have only just begun.

BUT HE LIKED IT ANYWAY

Speaking of fighting, friends of the Guv e-mail in to confirm our report that he attended the "extreme cage fighting" at Santa An Star Casino Wednesday night, but they said he did so because he was there to support the 23 year-old son of one of his top assistants.

Carlos “The Natural Born Killer” Condit was fighting to defend his world WEC Welterweight title, which he did with a first round win.

Carlos did better than Bill who is going to need more than one round to win his fight with the Legislature.

RED LIGHTS GET STOPPED

The Roundhouse
Now on to the red lights. If the weather was warmer, we wouldn't have been surprised to see dancing in the streets of ABQ late Thursday when a fuming Mayor Chavez announced he was suspending the dreaded red light program. The Legislature took a pound of flesh out of the mayor by passing a bill in the final moments that would take just about all the fines raised from the reviled spying cameras and turn it over for state court programs. Asked if he would sign the measure, thus delivering a blow to the mayor, but scoring points with the metro area public, Big Bill smiled and laughed: "I'm for that one."

Chavez heard the same thing and assumes Richardson will sign off, so he suspended the cameras at the start of the Thursday rush hour.

Antipathy toward the mayor poured out on the Senate floor during the camera debate. Veteran ABQ Dem Senator Shannon Robinson thundered: "I hope the mayor runs for governor because he won't even carry Bernalillo County."

Chavez appointed a task force late last year and could have encouraged it to kill off the cameras. Instead, the panel recommended that fines be lowered. The Legislature scored on this one and if Bill is not toying with Marty, the red light cameras could be gone for good. If so, a lot of Duke City residents will be shouting "Good Riddance!"

THE BOTTOM LINES

Some readers wanted to know why the northern Dem congressional campaign of Ben Ray Lujan did not release the polling question they asked in the survey they released showing him well ahead and which we blogged here. We asked the campaign and they agreed to forward the question. It reads like this:

"Let me ask about the Democratic primary election for U.S. Congress in June. If the primary election for U.S. Congress were held today and the candidates were: Bennie Shendo, Don Wiviott, Harry Montoya, Ben Ray Lujan, Derrith Watchman-Moore, Jon Adams and Rudy Martin -- for whom would you vote, Bennie Shendo, Don Wiviott, Harry Montoya, Ben Ray Lujan, Derrith Watchman-Moore, Jon Adams or Rudy Martin?

The campaign also said none of the respondents in the Greenburg, Quinlan and Rosner poll were "pushed" into stating they would vote for Lujan. The poll results are on Wednesday's' blog below.

Thanks to my e-mailers, and tipsters--fondly known as our Alligators--for their help this week. Bralley took today's photo of Hillary, one of his better ones. Also, a tip of the hat to our advertisers. Please click their ads for more information.

Until next time, I'm Joe Monahan, reporting to you from Albuquerque, NM.

(c)NM POLITICS WITH JOE MONAHAN 2008
Not for reproduction without permission of the author
Posted by: Joe Monahan / Friday, February 15, 2008

Thursday, February 14, 2008

Breaking News: Clinton Takes NM Prez Caucus: Clinton: 73,105; Obama--71,396, Also: Guv To Call Special Session Of Legislature 

Clinton Wins New Mexico's Democratic Caucus. Here is the AP Report

By Heather Clark/
Associated Press
Hillary Rodham Clinton won New Mexico's Democratic caucus Thursday following a prolonged vote-count that went on for nine days after the Feb. 5 election, the party's chairman said.

Brian Colon, whose party conducted the caucus, said Clinton had won 73,105 votes, or 48.8 percent, to Barack Obama's 71,396, or 47.6 percent.

New Mexico had been the only one of 22 states that held Democratic primaries and caucuses on Super Tuesday, but which had not yet reported a winner. The count had been delayed because of some 17,000 provisional ballots that had been cast Feb. 5 but not immediately counted.

Those provisional ballots, and declaration of Clinton as the winner Thursday, ultimately added one more delegate to her total — giving Clinton 14 delegates from New Mexico to 12 for Obama.

With the addition of New Mexico's delegate, the national delegate count stood at 1,276 for Obama and 1,220 for Clinton on Thursday.

"I am so proud to have earned the support of New Mexicans from across the state," Clinton said in a written statement. "New Mexicans want real solutions to our nation's challenges. As president, I will continue to stand up for New Mexico and will hit the ground running on day one to bring about real change."

Mara Lee, state director of Clinton's campaign in New Mexico, said: "We're absolutely thrilled to be the choice."

Colon, who came under fire for his handling of the troubled election, thanked the hundreds of volunteers who spent the past nine days counting ballots.

The final figures, he assured, "have been double and triple checked."
Posted by: Joe Monahan / Thursday, February 14, 2008

Guv Will Call Special Session Of Legislature; Regular 30 Day Session Adjourned at Noon Today 

They're being called back. Governor Richardson told reporters today he will call a special session of the Legislature because the lawmakers did not make any progress on his health care reform bill and other measures. He did not say when that special session would be held. He will consult with the legislative leadership on the timing. Here is the AP report. Here are Big Bill's opening remarks at the news conference.The Senate leadership's take on the session is here.

KOB-TV's Stuart Dyson was there and reports that the Governor did not hide his pleasure that, after much manuevering, a $384 million capital outlay bill made it to his desk and that he now has 20 days to sign it. "He relished saying that he has time to 'scrutinize' that bill," Dyson said.

The giant pork bill will likely be used as leverage over the lawmakers as they meet in the special, but when that would be Richardson would not say. Expectations are that it will be during the 20 day window that Bill has to sign or veto the pork bill so important to the legislators and their re-election bids.

Dyson also reported the Governor will hit the road with key staff to promote his health care proposal, hoping to drum up public support and put pressure on the legislators to pass it.

The Governor was highly critical of the state Senate, the graveyard for most of his proposals this session. He called it a "do-nothing Senate" and charged they had acted irresponsibly.

"Unfortunately, a handful of Senators, including certain members of the Senate leadership and the Senate Finance Committee, were more focused on power, turf and personal agendas." The Governor said.

Richardson's health care bill is highly controversial because of concerns over the cost. State Senator John Arthur Smith, chairman of the Senate Finance Committee, has led the charge against the measure citing fiscal concerns.

Unlike Richardson, Senate leaders did not see the now adjourned thirty day session as a failure. They said in a news release that they had fulfilled their primary responsibility of passing a state budget.

(c)NM POLITICS WITH JOE MONAHAN 2008
Not for reproduction without permission of the author
Posted by: Joe Monahan / Thursday, February 14, 2008

2008 Legislative Session Is History; No Health Care Bill For Guv, But Pork Bill Gets To His Desk; Await Word On Any Special Session 

The 2008 NM Legislative session adjourned at noon today and the question immediately arose on whether there will be a special session. The Governor did get a big capital outlay bill to his desk, but his health care reform bill died in the Senate. He has 20 days to sign or veto parts of the $384 million pork bill. That will hang over the head of lawmakers, especially if they are called into a special while the Guv decides what to do with the pork. He will hold a news conference at about 1 p.m. to announce whether there will be a special session. He said this week he would call one if the Senate did not act on his health care reform bill. The bill died in the Senate. He could call a special session right away, or later.

(c)NM POLITICS WITH JOE MONAHAN 2008
Not for reproduction without permission of the author
Posted by: Joe Monahan / Thursday, February 14, 2008

Lame Duck Becomes Roaring Lion; Richardson Rises As Session Nears End, Plus: First Poll In Northern Congress Race 

The lame duck turned into a nasty lion Wednesday, taking control of the Roundhouse through a stroke of serendipity, pure persistence and pitting the House and Senate against one another. After looking like his back was put up against the wall by the state Senate, Governor Richardson now looks to have the Senate where he wants them--over a pork barrel.

The zany events of the final hours of the 30 day legislative session is the stuff of political folklore. Suffice it to say, when the back and forth on the $348 million capital outlay bill was over, a measure was nearing the Fourth Floor and the "lame duck" Governor had been dispatched, replaced by a roaring lion. Neither the House or Senate has the stomach to try to override Bill's veto of the original capital outlay bill, despite the drumbeat in the press that they had had enough of the Guv's dictatorial ways.

The final pork bill is expected to pass the House before the scheduled noon adjournment. Big Bill will then have 20 days to decide what projects, if any, to veto. He is not mad at House members, so his focus will be on the Senate. Will he now be able to persuade them to come back into a special session and take up his health care bill or else see their pork eviscerated by his veto pen? Or, will the Senate barons tell him to take a trip to Hades, forego their pork and face voters later this year empty-handed?

The Senate recessed shortly before midnight. They will meet again at 9 a.m. to take one final look at whether to consider the Guv's healthcare bill.

While the Guv appears to be positioned to win a short-term victory, his long-term relationship with the Senators of his own party has been further damaged this session. That may be the bigger story of Legislature 2008.

By the way, when asked where the Governor was as he conducted a news conference on his behalf Wednesday afternoon, Big Bill staff chief James Jimenez said he didn't know. Well, the Alligators know. They said he was headed for the World Extreme Cagefighting event at Santa Ana Star Center. Cagefighting when you have the Legislature to fight with? Some guys can't get enough!

We'll update the fast-breaking events as they unfold today. The Legislature is scheduled to adjourn at noon, so check back in.

NORTHERN NUMBERS

The first poll out in the race for the Democratic nomination for the northern NM Congressional seat confirms what observers have been saying: Ben Lujan begins the campaign with a commanding lead and the race appears to be his to lose.

According to the survey paid for by Lujan's campaign and conducted by Greenberg Quinlan Rosner Research, Lujan, son of NM House Speaker Ben Lujan, garners 35% of the vote in a seven way contest. His closest challenger is Santa Fe County Commissioner Harry Montoya who gets 9%. Santa Fe developer Don Wiviott is third with 6%. Other candidates and their percentages: Jon Adams--4%; Bennie Shendo--4%; Derrith Watchman-Moore (who is not running) 3%; and attorney Rudy Martin--2%. Over a third of the electorate is undecided so there is still a chance for someone to make a move on Lujan.

The polling firm says its findings are based on a survey of 504 likely Democratic primary voters conducted January 27-30th. The survey is subject to a margin of error of 4.4 percent. The polling memo I have does not list the specific question asked. It says he begins the race "with a solid lead."

Lujan's poll is circulating among his supporters, and we expect it will be used to help him raise funds for the race ahead. Wiviott is the only candidate currently with the resources to do a significant media buy. He may start that sooner rather than later after weighing these numbers.

ADAMS IS ALIVE

We omitted Dem Jon Adams, a former NM assistant attorney general, in our listing of all the candidates who filed for Congress Tuesday. He has been traveling the northern district and even said he spotted a drunk driver recently and had him arrested. Maybe Jon will look at the NM State Police if he doesn't make it to Congress.

SOUTHERN SKIRMISH

There's good news and bad news for southern NM Dem congressional candidate Harry Teague. The good news is that his foes are concerned enough about him to fire an early shot; the bad news is the shot was indeed fired.

Teague, a leading Democratic contender for the U.S. House seat representing southern New Mexico, has been accused in a federal civil rights lawsuit of ignoring a sexual harassment complaint leveled against a top manager in one of Teague's companies in Hobbs.

Teague was not personally charged with harassment, but he and other private businessmen seeking the congressional seats can expect their business records to come under scrutiny.

WHO IS THE FRONTRUNNER?

Another Dem seeking that southern seat, Frank McKinnon, e-mails with this inquiry:

"I have been reading your web site since you first mentioned my name as a candidate for CD2. I am curious as to where you have been receiving your information about who is leading in this race. It is a much different picture than what I have been seeing across District 2, but I am open minded and seeking your sources of information."


Let me take a stab at it. Teague has put up over $200,000 of his own cash and raised another $200k--mainly from oil and gas interests. That is nearly double the funds of his closest rival, Bill McCamley, making Teague far and away the best financed candidate. For better or worse, that is very often an indication of who will be the ultimate winner. Besides the cash, Teague has been twice elected to the Lea County Commission and served as its chairman; he has secured the public backing of the state's #2 Democrat, Light Guv Diane Denish, who can push votes his way--and he is the most prominent conservative-moderate Dem in a conservative southern district. Also, we see Dem Al Kissling splitting votes with McCamley in their home county of Dona Ana. Teague has no one poaching on his SE territory. That's why he is the frontrunner in the race for the nomination and the early target of his rivals.

Thanks for the note, Frank. Frontrunner status isn't written in stone. It can change, and if it does for us in this race, we'll be quick to the rewrite desk.

EVEN MORE FROM THE SOUTH


And Alysha Greer Smith, the daughter of southern NM GOP congressional candidate Earl Greer, also hit the e-mail box after reading Wednesday's blog:

Joe wrote: "Can Greer get over his losses for the state GOP chairmanship as well as a PRC seat?" As far as my dad's "losses," if you want to call them that, he is in great company with Congressman Joe Skeen, President Ronald Reagan, and President Abraham Lincoln. All had to "overcome" losses before they rose to greatness.

Thanks, Alysha. But we have to call a loss a loss. Who was the lady who said, "A rose is a rose is a rose...?" Well, a loss is a loss is a loss. Not that there's anything wrong with that...

Thanks for stopping by. E-mail your news, comments and scathing criticisms.

(c)NM POLITICS WITH JOE MONAHAN 2008
Not for reproduction without permission of the author
Posted by: Joe Monahan / Thursday, February 14, 2008

Wednesday, February 13, 2008

Everybody's Happy: New Law Eases Road For Congress Candidates, Plus: Candidate Filing Day, And: The Santa Fe Circus & The Prez Vote Count Goes On 

Get ready for a congressional free-for-all. As candidates lined up in Santa Fe Tuesday to make their official declarations, over at the Roundhouse they made it easier for those hopefuls to get on the June primary ballot. Lawmakers passed a measure to allow contenders who don't get enough delegate support at their party's March pre-primary convention to go out and get additional petition signatures to win a spot on the ballot. The Guv has said he will sign the bill. More than a few candidates are expected to take advantage of that new law in this historic year when all three NM US House seats are open as well as a US Senate seat.

As for the candidates who filed, no big surprises, Minor US Senate contenders Dem Leland Lehrman of the north and R Tom Benavides of ABQ are gone. They failed to file declarations and needed petition signatures. Political newcomer Bob Cornelius dropped out of the GOP race for the southern congressional seat shortly before the 5 p.m. filing deadline. He endorsed Terry Marquardt.

The banner US Senate race will feature Republicans Steve Pearce and Heather Wilson, both US Reps who filed their paperwork Tuesday. The front-runner? GOP primaries generally favor the more conservative candidate which in this case is Pearce, but Wilson has more political experience. This will be a good one.

Democrat Tom Udall filed his papers for the Senate. He gets a free ride in the Democratic primary and enters the race as the fall favorite with early polling showing him beating either Wilson or Pearce. Still, either Pearce or Wilson will spend and attack heavily.

DUKE CITY SHOWDOWN

In the ABQ congressional seat we'll have two Republicans--Bernalillio County Sheriff Darren White and State Senator Joe Carraro--seeking their party's nomination. White starts as the favorite. Carraro will have to raise money to make the race competitive.

For the Dems, the ABQ situation has grown complicated. Former Secretary of State Rebecca Vigil-Giron is in the race threatening the bid of the other Hispanic female seeking the June nod--Michelle Lujan Grisham. Former ABQ City Councilor Martin Heinrich takes the role of favorite now that Vigil-Giron and Lujan Grisham will share votes. He also has a couple of hundred thousand in the bank. Newcomer and attorney Robert Pidcock is also in as is another newbie--28 year old Jessica Wolfe.

Insiders say Vigil-Giron, saddled with considerable baggage from her last stint as Secretary of State, nevertheless poses a threat to Heinrich, the darling of the Dem progressives. She has high name ID and will not need as much money to get her name out. Heinrich's camp is hoping the two Hispanic contenders will divide the vote leaving him to run up the middle. But there are no guarantees. Lujan Grisham was blindsided by Rebecca's entry and will have to fight to re-establish herself as a top contender.

The ABQ House seat is being vacated by Heather Wilson who is seeking the GOP nomination for the US Senate seat being vacated by Republican Pete Domenici.

THE SOUTHERN STRATEGY

Down south, former Hobbs County Commissioner Harry Teague filed for the US House seat as did Dona Ana County Commissioner Bill McCamley. They are your two leading candidates for the Dem June nod which also features Al Kissling of Las Cruces and Frank McKinnon of Roswell. The seat is being vacated by Steve Pearce who is seeking the GOP US Senate nomination. Teague starts ahead because of a big money advantage.

On the R side, we'll have six candidates now that Cornelius is gone. The frontrunner by money raised is rancher and restaurant owner Ed Tinsley, but the insiders say this one is pretty much wide open. Hobbs Mayor Monty Newman is another major player. Longtime T or C Republican Earl Greer is in as is Roswell area rancher Aubrey Dunn. Rounding out the field is Greg Sowards who has sought the seat before and former State Rep. Terry Marquardt of Alamogordo. Can Tinsley use his money to break this open. Can Dunn use his cash to make R's forget about his Dem ties? Can Marquardt overcome a humiliating '06 defeat for his NM House seat? Can Greer get over his losses for the state GOP chairmanship as well as a PRC seat? Can Newman secure the SE counties to become a frontrunner?

UP NORTH

In the north, the Democratic front-runner is Ben Ray Lujan, son of state House Speaker Ben Lujan. He is being challenged by Santa Fe developer Don Wiviott, Santa Fe County Commissioner Harry Montoya, attorney Rudy Martin and former NM Indian Affairs cabinet secretary Benny Shendo. All filed papers Tuesday. Devloper Wiviott is self-financing and is seen as the major threat to Lujan's bid. On the R side attorney Marco Gonzales and contractor Bob East of Rio Rancho will go for the GOP nod. The Dems should hold this seat which is being vacated by Rep. Udall. But it could get nasty between Lujan and Wiviott. Attorney Jon Adams is also in this one after first seeking the ABQ seat.

A WINNER ALREADY

It's only February but we already have our first November winner. He's NM Supreme Court Justice Charlie Daniels who was appointed to the high court in October. Daniels drew no Dem primary opponent Tuesday and no Republicans filed for the court seat. That means the former high-profile ABQ criminal defense lawyer will get to serve out the term of the late Pamela Minzner unopposed. That term runs until 2011. If Daniels wants to stay on the five member court after that, he will have to seek his own eight year term in 2010. All five justices are Democrats.

SANTA FE CIRCUS


It is really Barnum & Bailey time at the Merry Roundhouse in Santa Fe. For Mr. & Mrs. New Mexico the circus is as entertaining as it is dismaying. The Guv and the Legislature are in open warfare over exactly when he can act on the capital outlay (pork) bill, and the fight has gotten so bad it could end up at the NM Supreme Court as soon as this evening. He is also, God help us, threatening a special session if his health care plan is not modified. When was the last time the Guv got anything substantial from a special? But that doesn't stop him from calling them.

Then there's the sideshow going on in the other tent as Light Guv Diane Denish and Bill squabble over her right to have security coverage. Denish told KOB-TV the Guv is being "disrespectful." Bill questions her version of the security story.

The session is slated to adjourn at noon Thursday. Things have gotten so bad up there, they're pulling out the Santos' and praying for it to happen.

COUNT ON IT

The slow--some would say maddeningly slow--process of counting the votes from an election now over a week old continued at the NM Democratic Party Tuesday, with the vote-counting raising questions about the voter lists used. It appears a significant number of voters had to cast provisional ballots because when they went to their poling location, their names were not on the list of voters. The Democratic Party used the statewide voter list compiled by the Secretary of State to make lists of Dems for use at the 184 polling locations. What went wrong? That question will be one of many needing attention in the party's planned report on the botched election.

Another big reason there were so many provisional ballots--over 17,000---was a large number of unregistered people trying to vote. There were also a number of Republicans and Independents attempting to vote in the Democrats-only primary.

State Dem chair Brian Colòn said he could not say how many Democrats had problems voting last week because their names were not on the voter lists used at the polls. But he said no one was turned away. "That's why we have provisional balloting." He said.

As for the count, the party now says over 8,000 of the over 17,000 provisionals have been found valid, They also said that after a canvass of the regular votes Clinton's lead over Obama is now 1,074. It's Hill--68,084--Obama--67,010

E-mail your latest news and comments.

(c)NM POLITICS WITH JOE MONAHAN 2008
Not for reproduction without permission of the author
Posted by: Joe Monahan / Wednesday, February 13, 2008

Tuesday, February 12, 2008

Santa Fe Lament: "I Wanna Go Home," Plus: Dem Vote Count Update; Hill Still Positioned, And: Jeff Bingaman's Silver Anniversary 

Santa Fe wall-leaners make some important points--legislators are not feeling heat from back home to pass Big Bill's major health insurance overhaul, they want to go home to start their re-election campaigns without major controversy and they want to start raising money for those campaigns which they can't do until the 30 day legislative session ends.

A watered down version of the Guv's health bill remains alive, prompting conjecture that they give him that measure, he claims a partial victory and everyone goes home at noon Thursday.

The Guv has been setting up a move to use the big capital outlay bill as a veto threat to get what he wants from lawmakers. But AG King dealt that movida a blow last night:

“My attorneys...have found nothing in state law...that would prohibit the Lieutenant Governor from accepting legislation on behalf of the Governor and starting the clock on the time that the Governor has to consider it."

If King's opinion stands it means the capital outlay bill delivered to Denish Saturday night when Big Bill had his office closed down will have to be acted on by the Governor before the legislature adjourns. That means they would have a chance to override any vetoes of it before they headed for the exits.

Tuesday afternoon the Governor said he is going to ignore the Wednesday deadline and act on the capital outlay bill on Thursday, the day he says action is due. We'll see if this provokes further infighting.

Clearly it is time to end this legislative session which has accomplished its primary job--passing a state budget and the capital outlay bill. Threats to hold a special session have not worked in years past and they won't this year---especially not when the public seems in no mood to remake the world in 30 days. At least that's how it looks from this peanut gallery.

Here's a good piece on Big Bill's position with the Legislature after being out on the Prez trail for a year.

GETTING CLOSER (UPDATED)

The count goes on. Late Tuesday afternoon the NM Democratic Party said it has now examined the over 17,000 provisional ballots cast in NM's Democratic Presidential Caucus last week. They say about 8,000 of the provisionals examined have been found to be valid and will be counted. This means about 46% of the votes examined thus far have been qualified. Barack Obama still has a steep hill to climb to catch Hillary Clinton.

The party says it is re-checking the provisionals against a statewide data base to see if it can qualify more.

Hillary now has a lead of 1,074---68,084--67,010 votes. Obama would have to capture about 56.6% of them to catch Hillary. As our experts told us last week, that is improbable. It appears at the rate the party is proceeding it will meet its self-imposed February 15th deadline to certify the election. The next step is to count the provisional ballots found valid.

BINGAMAN GETS THE SILVER

A little noticed NM political milestone was reached in January--Democratic US Senator Jeff Bingaman marked 25 years in the US Senate, making him the third longest serving senator in state history and closing in on being the second longest serving. Bingaman was elected in 1982 when he sacked astronaut and GOP Senator Harrison "Jack" Schmitt. He has been easily re-elected every six years since. At his last re-election, in 2006, he won with over 70% of the vote. Only GOP Senator Pete Domenici, who will retire next January, and the late Dem US Senator Dennis Chavez have served longer than Bingaman, and Jeff is set to eclipse Chavez's tenure in mid-2010.

The 64 year old, who grew up in Silver City, NM, did not wax nostalgic when asked to comment recently on his Silver Anniversary, but he did say a quarter of century of service has caused him to "develop more of an appreciation for the complexity of the issues." The Republicans have given him plenty of peace and quiet to do so. They have never been able to put him on the ropes. He has voted his liberalism on the major national issues, but has taken a more conservative tone when it comes to NM's rural interests, including the oil and gas industry.

What do NM voters like best? His low-key style and the respect he shows all people and their points of view. What do they not like? Not much. Perhaps there is a yearning that he be even more of a national player given the investment they have made in him.

In year 25 Bingaman has a heap of responsibility. He is chairman of the Senate Energy Committee, a member of the powerful tax writing Senate Finance Committee and will become the state's senior senator when Domenici next January ends his record setting stint of 36 years. Every other member of the NM congressional delegation--the new US Senator and three US House members will be freshmen--putting pressure on Bingaman to make sure federally-dependent NM is not ignored. He says the pressure is "more psychological" than anything else. Domenici is a world heavyweight when it comes to bringing home the bacon, but the Democrats and Bingaman are now in the majority. That should serve to ease the transition.

In 25 years Bingaman has probably turned over his staff several times, but personal assistant Virginia White who was there at the beginning is still with him. Deputy Chief of Staff David Pike has also been aboard since '83, and Lynn Ditto of his Roswell office has also spent most of her working life with the senator. While Bingaman says of his career, "We've done some good and continue to do some good," he dryly adds, "I don't plan to serve another 25 years."

HILLARY IN THE HOUSE

At least in El Paso. She campaigns there today for the March 4 Texas primary at 6:30 p.m. She will get into NM via El Paso TV which serves Dona Ana county.

(c)NM POLITICS WITH JOE MONAHAN 2008
Not for reproduction without permission of the author
Posted by: Joe Monahan / Tuesday, February 12, 2008

Monday, February 11, 2008

Capitol Food Fight As Session Nears End; Di & Senate At Odds With Bill, Plus: Major Political Week Ahead; Prez Vote Count & Candidate Filings 

Bill & Di in Happy Times
Right on schedule, an end of session food fight has broken out between Big Bill and the state Senate. This year the twist on this annual rite is the involvement of Light Guv Diane Denish who split with the Fourth Floor, winning kudos from senators and jeers from Big Bill staff chief James Jimenez. We get the gooey details from the AP. And tales of bizarre political behavior from the New Mexican.

The squabble centers on delivery of bills to the Guv's office that are passed by the lawmakers. Saturday night, with the Guv's office shut down, Lady Di at the request of the senate, accepted on behalf of the Guv a budget bill and the pork bill--that's the one that provides all that nifty construction money to each legislators district. The key point being this: "If the Legislature gets bills to the governor before the last three days of the session...he must either sign or veto them while lawmakers are still at the Capitol—giving them an opportunity to override any vetoes."

Big Bill wants to use the threat of pork vetoes as leverage to put pressure on lawmakers to pass his health care plan. But if he has to sign or veto the money bills before lawmakers adjourn Thursday at noon, there is no leverage because they would have a shot at overriding any vetoes.

The Light Guv is seeking the 2010 Dem Guv nomination and some insiders were reading her favor to the senators as an assertion of independence from Big Bill who they say has been out of sorts ever since getting thrashed in the Dem prez race.

We’re told the Guv was at the UNM Lobo basketball game when the Saturday Night Rebellion occurred. Sen. John Arthur Smith is braying about a "crisis" and going to court against the Guv if he refuses to accept the Saturday bill delivery. Jimenez is parsing and saying the Light Guv had no power to accept the bills in question.

Attorney General Gary King will try to settle the squabble. He told me late last night from the capitol where he was attending a Senate Judiciary Committee meeting that his staff would research what constitutes the Guv "accepting" a bill from lawmakers.

Advice from the Alligators? Bill, you're a bit of a lame-duck with a pissy Legislature and press. Look for the compromise. Senators, you're tired and you're all up for re-election. Breathe deep and get us out of this mess. Lady Di, you did the Senate a favor and got some brownie points but don't push it. There's plenty of time left before 2010.

And to those of you who want longer legislative sessions--Fugghedaboudit!

AN EVENTFUL WEEK

This will be yet another eventful political week for New Mexico, and not just because the Legislature is in its final stretch. Candidates for the three NM congressional seats--all with no incumbents--will file their candidacy papers Tuesday. Will we get some first round drop outs? Also, we should--and we emphasize should---have a final tally on who took the popular vote in last week's troubled Democratic Presidential Caucus.

There are 11 candidates--seven R's and four Dems--seeking the southern Congressional seat. At least five Dems and two R's say they are seeking the ABQ seat and at least five Dems and two R's say they are running for the Northern seat. All of these candidates will have to submit petition signatures Tuesday---numbering in the hundreds--to make their candidacies valid. Political watchers will be looking to the Secretary of State's office Tuesday at 5 p.m. to see who is really in.

A major winnowing of the congressional hopefuls could occur at the mid-March pre-primary conventions, or maybe not. Legislation to make it easier to get on the June primary ballot has sailed through the House and Senate, but final versions still need approval before heading to Big Bill. This being the final week of a frenzied 30 day session, anything can happen. The measure would allow candidates who do not garner 20% of the delegates at their party's pre-primary to gather additional petition signatures to make the ballot. If the bill makes it through, prepare for a large number of candidates. If it doesn't pass, we will still be dealing with uncertainty for a while. Candidate Don Wiviott has a court suit to resinstate the petition option.

Back at the Roundhouse, as our Alligators predicted, major ethics legislation appears dead. Are the ethics lobbyists asking for too much at once? That's a complaint we're hearing. Critics say after years of failure, ethics advocates should push for one big ethics bill a year, not big ethics packages. They argue if you get one piece of the pie each year, after a couple of years you would have a whole pie. Perhaps the donors to Common Cause will think about that in light of yet another unsuccessful session.

THE COUNT GOES ON

The NM Democratic Party says volunteers have now pronounced valid 2,778 of the over 17,000 provisional ballots they are sorting through from last week's presidential caucus. They aren't saying how many ballots are left to examine, but you can bet it's a bunch. Hillary Leads Obama by 1,123 in the popular votes. After all the provisionals are examined for validity, the good ones will be counted. The party says it is double-checking the voter lists as they examine the provisionals this week because other verification requirements for provisionals have been eased. It's not letting Dems "vote early and vote often" but these prez campaigns want this deal done thus the liberal rules.

SHOW US THE MONEY

After Tuesday's election disaster, Lieutenant Governor Denish, a former NM Democratic Party Chair, says she thinks it's time for the state party to consider having a full-time paid chairman. That's a good place to start the conversation, but we see it differently. What the party really needs--to be crass about it--is rich people to serve as chair. Why? Because current Chair Brian Colon says the lack of money was the big reason why the party did not have more voting sites and materials for the election. The party held back spending on those items as well as consultants because he did not have the cash to pay for them.

The chief job of a party chairman is to raise money. Rich people are good at raising money from their rich friends. It's a formula that has been followed for years in both parties. Denish, from a wealthy family, is one example. From the old days, we had Hobbs oilman Ben Alexander. More recently, we had monied-up Jamie Koch and John Wertheim, whose family has significant wealth. On the R side, current GOP Chairman Allen Weh is far from the poorhouse. The same goes for earlier GOP chairs John Dendahl, Ramsay Gorham and Edward Lujan.

Colòn, an attorney, is not wealthy and has to work for a living. That doesn't necessarily make him a bad chairman; it just makes him deficient in the #1 chore of the chair--to keep the money flowing and to work on party affairs without worrying about his own wallet. There is already a full-time paid executive director at Dem and R headquarters. Paying for a full-time chairman is unlikely to improve fund-raising performance. It is a fact that having a well-established politico with personal money will.

Speaking of money, Denish says she will contribute some of her campaign funds to the party to pay for the extended caucus vote count. Insiders say she, Governor Richardson and Senator Bingaman are each donating $5,000 each to help replenish party coffers.

THE BOTTOM LINES

Thanks to ABQ The Magazine and contributor Peter St. Cyr for the cool write-up in the February issue, and photog Liz Lopez who used all that digital magic to make us look presentable to polite company. An excerpt: "Monahan runs the state’s go-to political blog, “New Mexico Politics with Joe Monahan.” And, as his busy schedule shows, a day in the life of this blogger is anything but boring..."

As you can see, I was caught with one of my Alligators. The magazine, as they say, is currently available at newstands everywhere.

E-mail us your latest news, and thanks for stopping by.

(c)NM POLITICS WITH JOE MONAHAN 2008
Not for reproduction without permission of the author
Posted by: Joe Monahan / Monday, February 11, 2008

Friday, February 08, 2008

Obama & Clinton Camps Seek Peaceful Vote Count; Agreement Reached, Plus: Backing Besieged Brian; Supporters Of Dem Chairman Speak Out 

New Mexico already has a national black eye so a sigh of relief greeted news from the insiders that the Obama and Clinton camps have come to an agreement on how to go about counting the over 17,000 provisional ballots still outstanding from Tuesday's Democratic Presidential caucus. We are told that both campaigns agree there must be a "liberal" interpretation of the votes, meaning unless they are obviously illegitimate, they should be counted. There is a laundry list of provisions in the vote-counting agreement. Dems will work hard to make sure the peace holds as it would be yet another PR disaster if the state and nation were subjected to a tug of war between the two leading White House contenders.

Not that it will be easy. The counting of the provisionals--votes cast because a voter showed up at the wrong polling location or because their name was not on the voter registration list--is tedious and time consuming. Tempers are bound to flare and disputes arise. As we blogged Thursday, our experts favor Hillary to take the title. The AP said she held a lead of 1,123 votes--68,654 votes compared with 67,531 for Obama. Every vote deserves to be counted.

INSIDE THE COUNT

(The following is continuing coverage and our third rewrite on the Mora story as more information is developed.)

Why so many provisionals? A combination of factors, say party officials, including voter registration lists that may not have been complete, people showing up who never were registered and voters turning up at the wrong location to vote. One wonders what happened in Mora County where there was only one voting location, but 391 provisional ballots were cast. None of those folks were on the voter registration list and had to be given provisionals? More than half the vote in Mora was cast as provisional votes.

Paula Garcia, chair of the Mora County Dems, e-mailed a news release Friday in response to our query. She said "because of problems with the roster of registered Democrats, 391 voters, an unusually high number, had to vote by provisional ballot. We did the best with the list provided us," She wrote.

Based on the Web site numbers, Mora is reporting a turnout of 40% of its 1,850 registered Dems. Neighborhing counties of Rio Arriba and San Miguel report much lower turnouts. Rio Arriba comes in at 23% and San Miguel also at 23%. Usually the turnout percentage in these counties is similar. Garcia says turnout would have been even higher if the weather had been warmer. Friday night Garcia emailed and said the calculation of the unusually high Dem voter turnout in Mora was the result of a clerical error; that the number of Democrats listed for Mora at the Secretary of State's Web site is incorrect.

"Notice also that there are 1424 (37%) listed as "other." I suspect that the problem with our voter registration list was that people registered as Democrats historically are for some reason recorded as "other" on the current list at the SOS. The number of Democrats should be more around 3000. The list we were provided for our caucus was missing many hundreds of names who should have been listed as Democrats.

If there are 3,000 Mora Democrats as Garcia says, then turnout would be a more normal 25%, not the spike to 40% that caught our eyes and others. There were a couple of northern counties with high turnout. Santa Fe came in with a 43% turnout and Los Alamos at 48% of registered Dems. Both of those counties were worked heavily by the Obama campaign and he carried them. In the preliminary count, Obama lost Mora County to Hillary 221 to 134, with the provisionals remaining to be counted. Why there are so many voters listed as belong to "other" parties for Mora County and not included in the Democrat column could be caused by an incorrect report from the Mora County clerk or a data entry error at the Secretary of State's office.

NM Dem Party executive director Laura Sanchez said the party worked Thursday to beef up its voter registration base to make sure it includes all of the state's 533,000 Dems. The provisional ballots must be matched to that list before they can be counted.

Sanchez, operating under the gun in what has been the week from hell for her and Dem Party chair Brian Colòn, also had to take time to fend off rumors that she was resigning or being fired. "I am here and working and not leaving," she told me.

Also on Friday night the Rio Grande Sun posted a report on the Rio Arriba count which was called into question in some quarters when numbers for the county were not posted Election Night. The report explains the path the vote count took there and why there was so much confusion, but no evidence of hanky-panky.

What a maze through La Politica there is before these provisional ballots are counted.

DON'T HANG HIM!

The furor over the slow vote count and the long lines that developed on Caucus Day, especially in Rio Rancho, has the political mob calling for a head to roll. Friends of Colòn responded to our e-mail box Thursday after we published furious reaction to his leadership of the caucus. Here is a sample.

Santa Fe attorney Geno Zamora:

Brian is an active and committed Democrat who is a good soldier for our party, I commend him for not shirking responsibility. Brian has sacrificed personal income and considerable family time to serve our state-sacrifices that few are willing to make... I support him and anyone that demonstrates such dedication to furthering Democratic ideals..."


Dem David Daily:

...It was the responsibility of the individual county party officials to make the determination of how their county's caucus would run. Let's not forget that this effort was conducted by volunteers and that the greatest majority of the sites ran smoothly and efficiently. I find it despicable that Brian is being used as a scapegoat

Hilary Noskin:

There are a lot of people spitting out blame, but maybe some of those people should volunteer to be part of a solution instead of just whining…


Thomas Rymsza ward 30A chair, ABQ:

We processed almost 1200 voters in seven hours. We also processed 138 provisional ballots. I had a great team of volunteers, and the mood at our location was very upbeat and positive...I will be a vocal supporter of doing away with this caucus process at the next State Central Committee meeting. It is a ton of work to lay on volunteers, and results in an embarrassing portrayal of our party and state.

BLAMING BILL

Governor Richardson said Thursday there should be a reassessment of whether NM should continue to hold a presidential caucus in early February so it can have more influence in the Dem presidential nominating process, or return to the traditional June primary. He has disavowed any responsibility for his party's fiasco this week, but everyone isn't cutting him slack.

Anonymous: In 2004, the caucus had the full strength of the Gov. In 2008, it was an afterthought. A caucus--run correctly--comes with about a $300K price tag. I cannot see anyone-short of the big guy raising that kind of dough in such a short period of time, especially in a state where donors have already been sucked dry...

Counting the provisionals may take up to a week. The deadline to certify is Feb. 15. In the delegate count, the AP says: Clinton and Obama are vying for 26 of New Mexico's 38 delegates to the Democratic National Convention. Twelve so-called super delegates are not bound by caucus results." The wire service says Clinton has 13 NM delegates and Obama has 12 from Tuesday's caucus. We had earlier blogged that the statewide Prez winner would be awarded nine delegates. That is not the case. Of those nine, six are doled out according to the percentage of votes each candidate receives statewide. The other three are selected by the party's State Central Committee. Republicans are much more into winner take all, and after dealing with the Dems byzantine selection process, I can see why.

BACK TO THE MAIL

From Jake Arnold in Rio Arriba County on our description of State Sen. Richard Martinez as a nephew of legendary county political boss Emilio Naranjo:

Joe, Check your genealogy re: state Sen. Richard Martinez being Emilio Naranjo's nephew. Or do you know something that we up here in Rio Arriba don't know? You may be thinking of Rio Arriba county Magistrate Judge Alex Naranjo or lobbyist Nick Naranjo (brother of Alex)--they are Emilio's nephews. Sen. Martinez and the Naranjo boys are, or course, honchos in the faction that inherited remnants of the old Emilio organization..."


Do I know something Rio Arriba doesn't know? Jake, you Alligators in in Rio Arriba have forgotten more politics than I've ever learned.

Your e-mailed news and comments are welcome. This is the home of New Mexico politics.

(c)NM POLITICS WITH JOE MONAHAN 2008
Not for reproduction without permission of the author
Posted by: Joe Monahan / Friday, February 08, 2008

Thursday, February 07, 2008

Hill Closes In On Kill: She's Up A Thousand; Experts Say It Is Likely Hers, Plus: Election Mishap; Guv Runs For Cover: Readers Rage; Colòn Scorched 

Is NM Hers?
The NM Democratic Prez race remains as a tight as the rusted lug nuts on a '55 Chevy, but with late results posted from Rio Arriba County it appears Hillary Clinton has an excellent chance of taking the state. As of 12:30 p.m. Thursday and with all 184 precincts reporting, Clinton leads Obama by 1,066 votes--67,011 to 65,945, according to results on the state Democratic Party's Web site. Also, 17,000 "provisional" ballots remain to be counted. At first it appeared those provisionals would enable Barack to win, but Hillary appeard tp pick up hundreds of votes from those delayed Rio Arriba boxes. The experts say the math for Obama is now daunting.

If we suppose (generously) that 75% of the provisional ballots are allowed, that would mean 12,750 fresh votes to count. To catch Hillary Obama would have to win those provisionals by over 54%. My experts say that is not likely. They point out that 3,937 of the provisionals come from the southern Second Congressional District where Hill pulled nearly 50% of the vote Election Night. Barack received just 36% there. If, as we expect, the southern provisional ballots favor Hillary, Barack would have to do even better than 54% in the provisional ballots in the north and the ABQ area. That is highly unlikely. So Hill can put the Champagne on ice and get the corkscrew ready, but this being the land of surprises as well as the Land of Enchantment, she is advised to not start the celebration too early. It will take several days to count the provisional ballots.

BEEN THERE, DONE THAT

Our experts also called the tight 2006 Madrid-Wilson race before the provisional ballots were counted, but that didn't stop a daily media frenzy on the vote count. We may get another frenzy on this one, but it is important to understand the big advantage Clinton now has as we watch events unfold. The possibility of a data entry or other counting error could, of course, throw the race back into serious question.

Not that the Obama camp is that concerned. Our initial and exclusive projection that he would carry the Northern and ABQ Congressional districts has held. He won them both. Hillary gets the Southern District. There are a total 26 pledged delegates. She will come out on top in the battle for the 17 delegates based on congressional district performance. It appears she will get nine of them and Barack eight. All told, the AP has these totals so far: 13 for Hillary and 12 for Obama. We await official word from the party. Twelve NM "Super Delegates" go to the nominating convention unpledged. The Obama camp says it has made its point by running strongly in a Western state with a large Hispanic population. Exit polls showed Obama making slight inroads with Hispanics, but Hillary dominated.

As for the counting, that is being supervised by an accounting firm hired by the Dem Party--REDW--and watched by attorneys for the Obama and Clinton camps. Former NM Dem Party Chair John Wertheim and former NM US Attorney John Kelly are counsel for Clinton. Among those helping Obama is Santa Fe attorney and former Clinton supporter John Pound. Insiders report all sides were cordial at a Wednesday meeting where ground rules for counting the provisional ballots were discussed.

BRIAN'S SONG
Colòn
What was decidedly not cordial the day after was the treatment of NM Dem Party Chair Brian Colòn. His fellow Dems, including his patron, Governor Richardson, turned on the chairman with a vengeance as the public relations disaster caused by the maladministered caucus spread. This being the Wild West, reaction to the snafus was so fierce we expected to see Brian hung in effigy in ABQ's Old Town Plaza or hung from a big oak tree in Silver City.

"I take responsibility and I apologize," Colòn said in a late night phone call as he left the REDW offices. "But I want the public to know this is a volunteer effort and they did a tremendous job."

Colòn admitted there was incompetence in the election, especially when he sanctioned just one polling place for the entire city of Rio Rancho. That caused extremely long lines and cost some Dems their right to vote. However, he dismissed suspicions of fraud that popped up when those three Rio Arriba County precincts were not reporting. He said officials there did call in the results Election Night, but the results did not include all the candidates. The party decided to hold out on posting them until all the results were in. "We have a full accounting of each vote." He said.

Rio Arriba has a storied station in NM election lore, especially from the 1950's through the 70's when Emilio Naranjo was vitrually unchallenged as Dem Party boss there. On Wednesday State Senator Richard Martinez was heard to say something to the effect that no one has to worry about the Rio Arriba count because he was calling 91 year old Emilio to make sure everything was done just right. That was funny to some; depressing to others.

PROVISIONALLY YOURS

Among the 17,000 provisional votes cast Tuesday is a bunch from New Mexico's legislators. A Santa Fe Gatorette informs:

"Legislators who didn't think about voting absentee were allowed to vote provisionally at the Gromley Elementary School. The session was adjourned for a bit in the early afternoon so they could vote. Many walked the two blocks and arrived en masse to vote.."

Said one wag: "The lobbyists passed sixteen bills while the lawmakers were gone, and no one noticed."

RUNNING FOR COVER

One of the odder spectacles of the day after was seeing Big Bill running so fast for cover that he could beat a roadrunner to the state line. He pointed to the caucus problems and said, "Don't point at me."

"I am deeply disturbed by the reports that problems...may have kept people from voting. As this very close election shows every vote is important, and every vote must count...The delay in results was extremely disappointing. I have expressed my frustration to Chairman Brian Colon and I told him that I stand ready to help the party in any way that I can.”

Now, here is the money graph from the Guv's release:

In 2004 Governor Richardson--through his personal efforts and those of his organization--ensured a successful first caucus--well organized, well funded, well-executed. This year, his political organization was devoted to his Presidential run and his personal time is now devoted to the Legislature. The New Mexico Democratic Party and New Mexico Democrats were wholly responsible for this caucus in the absence of the Governor’s time and his organization. Despite their best efforts, the enormous turnout overwhelmed Party officials in some places."

Well, a Big Bill can run, but he can't hide. The Democratic Alligators came out in force after that apologia hit the wires. Several asked why Richardson had not insured that the party had more money for the caucus. They said he has up to $1 million left from his run for governor--money that could have been used to help the party of which he is the titular head.

They also scored him for his national TV appearances on caucus night. They said he was cracking jokes about his new beard while the state was being mocked for its inability to count its votes. And the Gators took another bite, saying Big Bill had his political operative at Dem headquarters feeding him the latest numbers so he could be the first to call Obama or Clinton to congratulate them on their victory.

Bill is the state's symbol to the nation. When the nation's eyes are on us, they are on him.
In his post-presidential phase, the Guv has relaxed his grip on the reins. It is showing.

HANG HIM HIGH!

Colòn begged off any comment about the Guv. He knows as chairman he is going to take the fall no matter what. And what a fall it is. Check out the blog e-mail.

Anonymous: Colón is dead meat. He will never live down this fiasco.

From Rio Rancho, Joe Barela weighed in: I cannot accept the answer from the Democratic Party officials that they did not anticipate the voter turnout. Even if they did not, that is still not an excuse to be organized. We need to call this for what it really is: Incompetent Leadership from the Democratic Party...These Democratic officials should really be ashamed of themselves. Heads need to roll if they expect to win in November.

Michael Folsom was a site manager at one of the polling locations.

Folks in Bernallilo County are spitting fire. To save money they under printed ballots by at least 50%... I had 1100 ballots and was out by 3 pm. I had been begging for more ballots and got no response so I started tearing up sheets of paper and handed them out for folks to vote on. We tried to get Brian Colon to say it was OK or not and he froze...To say that the state party was useless is a grand understatement. The shine is definitely off Colon. You can expect a quick move to get rid of the causes at the March state convention. If someone wants to take a run at Colon, they have my support.

From Anthony DeMarco:

What's the deal with the chaos in today's voting? Who was running the show? I waited for two hours. People weren't on the list, there were too few staff and the whole thing was a disaster. If you ask me it was a piss poor job of organization, no matter how surprised they were by the turnout.

Anonymous e-mailers: Colón's political ambitions went up in smoke last night. He is done and gone and would not even win re-election as party chair.

I recall hearing when Colon took over as chairman that he intended to use it as a springboard for a gubernatorial run some day. Guess this caucus kinda screws the pooch, eh?

Larry Anderson in Roswell:

Turnout looks good. Management is horrible! Criss-crossing lines, mixed up lines, changes being made on the fly. A few people have left. One man leaving said, "worse election mess I've ever been in." They finally decided to set up lines alphabetically. Why didn't anyone think of this ahead of time?

Carolyn Christopher of ABQ let it all hang out

The polls didn't open until noon. Why? The news has been full of stories of how many more people were going to vote. So you cut off 5 HOURS of voting time? I've never voted at Cleveland Middle School. The Dem Powers That Be combined numerous precincts into just that one. Then we saw just three voting booths! That was it...I went to one of the booths and there were no pens! The poll worker was shouting, "Who took my pens? I had 20 pens!" It took 60 minutes to mark ONE BOX on my ballot! I should mention that I have a steel knee, titanium toes, and am 70 years old.

A steel knee and titanium toes? Now if Carolyn's missive wouldn't win the Hour of Rage award from KKOB's Jim Villanucci, what would?

Despite the misgivings over Colòn, he is expected to remain as Chairman. Few want the thankless job.

Not just Chairman Brian was dinged. The executive director of the party, Laura Sanchez, was scorched by the searing fire of La Politica. Friends of Art Terrazas, Jr. of Dona Ana County, who competed with Sanchez for the ED position last year, were heard crowing that the election nightmare would not have occurred if only young Art had been given the job. Look out, Laura.

TRACKING TURNOUT

Updated figures show 153,000 Dems casting ballots Tuesday. That will go down when a good chunk of the provisional ballots are disqualified. Assume we end up with 148,000. That would be a 41% increase in turnout over the 2004 caucus and a nearly 28% turnout among the 533,000 registered Dems. If there wasn't all the election chaos, that would be the big story---an energized Democratic party ready to come out in big numbers in November. I know that is the story NM GOP Chairman Allen Weh is watching.

WHO NEEDS AN EXIT POLL?

We liked the NM exit poll info, but Brian Borchers of Socorro came up with the same stuff just by listening in on Election Day.

From the mumbling that I heard today, the split was very much class/race based--the lower income Hispanic votes were coming out to vote for Clinton, while the Anglos associated with New Mexico Tech were voting strong for Obama.

Brian, give CNN a call. They may want you in November.

THE BOTTOM LINES

We posted the wrong percentages for Obama and Clinton when we posted the blog around 3:30 a.m. Tuesday, and it did not go unnoticed. The Santa Fe Reporter's Julia Goldberg quipped: "Do you have your percentages backward here...or am I just sleep deprived?" No Julia. It was I who was sleep deprived. Even the Starbucks was failing at that hour.

Captain Johnny F. Luévano of the United States Marine Corps, DFAS-Kansas City, made the official correction. "You said 65,845 votes, or 42.97 percent, while Obama had 65,728 votes, or 45.89 percent? Probably should be 42.89 percent..Semper Fi."

Right back at you, Captain. And thanks for making us part of your day...

Finally, an Alligator pin goes to Ellen Wedum who answered our inquiry and reminded us that Carlos Provencio of Silver City is a declared candidate for the 2010 Dem Guv nomination as is Light Guv Diane Denish.

E-mail it in, folks. This is ground zero for New Mexico politics 2008.

(c)NM POLITICS WITH JOE MONAHAN 2008
Not for reproduction without permission of the author
Posted by: Joe Monahan / Thursday, February 07, 2008

Wednesday, February 06, 2008

New Mexico Gridlock: Prez Race Tied; Vote Count Goes On; Chaos At Polls Has Fingers Pointing; Obama Takes Northern CD; Hill Rules South; Big Turnout 

The 2008 New Mexico Democratic presidential caucus crackled like a hickory fire as the vote count in the state's latest cliffhanger went into the wee morning hours. Barack Obama and Hillary Clinton fought to a standstill. In the end, she took to bed a 117 vote lead that looked shakier than cafeteria Jell-O. With 98 percent of precincts reporting, Clinton held 65,845 votes while Obama had 65,728 votes. The rest of the vote went to uncommitted or candidates that had dropped out.

This one is going to overtime, with some 17,000 "provisional" votes having the final word on who is our winner. Counting the provisionals at state Dem headquarters is expected to last all of today, if not longer. Many of those provisionals--cast by persons who did not know their proper voting location or who were not eligible to vote--will be disqualified. Perhaps half of them--around 8,000--will end up as qualified ballots, and it appeared because many of them came from Santa Fe and Bernalillo counties, Obama could eke out the victory. (County results here.)

While the big prize was still in the undecided column in the we morning hours, there was reason for Hill and Barack to celebrate--especially the Illinois senator. How about his win in the Northern congressional district? That was the upset of the night as a powerful snow storm discouraged turnout in the heavily Hispanic and pro-Hillary region. Meantime, voter participation went off the charts in Los Alamos County with well over 40% of the registered Democrats there trekking to the polls. They gave Obama 57% of their votes and a 464 vote margin over Hill. If Barack makes it to the White House cutting that Lab budget may be a lot harder to do because of last night.

INSIDE THE NUMBERS

There was a collective gasp when news came that Obama blew the doors off in Santa Fe County, scoring a huge 4,000 vote win over Hillary. It really got him in the game as he had been trailing all night as the rural south and east reported in for Hillary. Obama held a rally in Santa Fe just days before the election and Senator Kennedy visited there on his behalf. Bill Clinton was there, but held a private fundraiser, not a public event. Taos County joined Los Alamos and Santa Fe in putting Obama over the top in the Third District.

Obama appeared to carry Bernalillo County by a couple of thousand votes to also take the ABQ congressional district. He lost rural Torrance County. Hillary will have to come back big in the provisional ballots to spoil it for him.

The senator looked like a real city slicker, losing just about every county in the mostly conservative Second District. His performance was incredibly narrow in a geographic sense. He picked up the lion's share of his support in Bernalillo, Santa Fe and the aforementioned Los Alamos. He carried them all. Hillary owned much of the state, but voter turnout was lightest in her strongest areas. Obama also ceded to Hillary Dona Ana, Grant and Eddy--the southern counties with a tinge of liberal Dems.

The Clintonistas were confident they would win that 2nd CD contest and it was affirmed when the exit polls hit early in the evening. Twenty-six of NM's 38 national Dem convention delegates will be divided among Obama and Clinton based on their congressional district performances and their statewide standing. Nine delegates go to the eventual statewide winner.

Exit polls showed Obama slowing Hillary among Hispanics. She fell below 60% with younger Hispanics.

BLAMING BILL


Oh, what could have been, moaned several Clinton supporters as they mourned the decision by Governor Bill not to give Hillary an official endorsement. Perhaps he knew we were in for a squeaker and did not want to take a chance. But if Hillary goes on to lose New Mexico, you can bet her operatives will point a finger of blame Bill's way. His endorsement would likely have pushed just enough state workers into Hillary's camp for her to take the title.

TURNOUT TALE

Chair Colòn
Party officials said 142,739 Dems showed up for the caucus, an astounding number that took them by surprise and wreaked havoc on the process, especially in Rio Rancho. Party Chair Brian Colòn was the subject of universal scorn for only putting one voting place in the entire city of Rio Rancho. Soon it was overflowing with disgruntled voters and TV cameras recording the chaos. Some people had to wait three hours to vote. Many gave up. The chairman could do nothing but accept the blame and concede "an error in judgment." It's one he won't live down for a while. The party would not release any results until all Rio Rancho voters had cast their ballots.

Some analysts said the party appeared to be trying to save money by not printing up more ballots and opening more polling locations. But the NM caucus was going to be a sleeper until Big Bill abandoned his presidential bid and the game was on here. Turnout was nearly 27% of the 533,000 registered Dems, a 33% increase over the 2004 turnout. Colòn could at least point to an energized party posing a danger to the Republicans as he tried his best to fend off critics over the many Election Day snafus that popped up.

WATCH THOSE BOXES


Three Rio Arriba County precinct boxes remain with the chairman of the county Dem party who said they were having controversy over counting them and they would be taken to ABQ and the job done there. Those votes are likely to give Hillary a boost. Don't you think having three boxes full of votes spending the night in Rio Arriba was making the Obama camp nervous? If anything happens, it will make for another great NM election story for your grandkids.

THE BOTTOM LINES

The big picture from Tuesday continues to be the energized Democratic Party that is on the warpath against President Bush. The party may have evenly divided its votes, but they remain united in their disdain for the incumbent Prez. That poses a challenge for NM R's who may have hd a few belly laughs over the problems Dems had administering the election, but sobered up when they realized just how many Dems made it to the polls.

Thanks to Steve Cabiedes, Michael Brasher, Harry Pavlides, Peter St. Cyr and Mark Bralley for Election Night help. And all of you who emailed in your info.

(c)NM POLITICS WITH JOE MONAHAN 2008
Not for reproduction without permission of the author
Posted by: Joe Monahan / Wednesday, February 06, 2008

TOO CLOSE TO CALL: OBAMA AND CLINTON BATTLE DOWN TO THE WIRE; HILLARY CARRIES SOUTHERN CD; OBAMA TAKES ABQ; APPEARS TO WIN 1ST CD; HE WINS NORTHERN CD 

  • RUNNING TOTAL---Obama---65,728--42.89% to Hillary--42.97%--65,845--as of 1:16 a.m. 181 of 184 NM polling locations now reporting. What a race! There are over 16,000 provisional ballots that will have to be counted to settle this thing. That counting will commence at 9 a.m. Obama has carried Santa Fe County by about 4,000 votes. He took the 3rd CD as the exit polls suggested and he appears to have won the ABQ CD as well. Hillary won the southern congressional district.
  • Rio Rancho logjam slows vote count. Only one place to vote for all the Dems in the city. They stood in line until well after 8 p.m. Party says it was "error in judgement."
  • NM Dem Web counting site
Hillary narrowly carried the NM absentee vote--1643 for Hill; 1586 for Barack; 645 for Edwards. Exit polling says Obama carried two of NM's three congressional districts--ABQ and the North. The polling says Hillary carried the Southern district. As for the overall statewide vote, the exit poll indicates a narrow Obama victory. We are awaiting actual returns to confirm these exit poll trends released by the major networks tonight. That northern congressional district needs to be watched for actual vote totals as Clinton was expected to carry the region. A sever winter storm could have dampened turnout there. We shall see. Hidalgo and Curry County results have been posted on the party's Web site. Check there for continued updates. Hillary won both counties. Los Alamos County went for Obama 57% to Hill's 36%. Hillary carried Mora county. Voters were still in line at 7 p.m. We will have a total of 184 precincts to count.

The exit poll of 905 voters has Obama holding Hillary's Hispanic vote below 60% among younger Hispanics. For example, he scored 43% among Hispanics aged 30 to 45.

Dem officials say party rules dictate that official results be held until all voters in Rio Rancho cast ballots. Rio Rancho

Take a look at that exit poll I linked to at the top of the page. It has a treasure trove of demographic information on NM's voters.

Our spotters check in with reports of a strong turnout and some problems for the NM Dem Prez caucus, especially in Rio Rancho. In ABQ, Steve Cabiedes reported: "Turnout is heavy at Wilson Middle School in the SE Heights. It was also heavy at Montezuma Elementary not far from UNM. People were circling trying to find places to park. (Still going strong after 6 p.m.)

Lines were an issue at many locations. Our spotters say patience is required at many voting sites as the volunteer poll workers struggle to keep up. For example, long lines in Rio Rancho in Sandoval county slowed voting considerably. There were at least 1,500 people waiting to vote late today at Rio Rancho High, according to KRQE-TV which reported the school was the only Rio Rancho voting location. Some reports said the wait at Rio Rancho to vote was up to three hours.

Many locations ran out of paper ballots. That happened at Acoma Elementary in the ABQ NE Heights. Ballots were being brought in from state party headquarters. The paper ballots will be hand counted tonight and results phoned in to the party.

With the long lines in Rio Rancho, results could be delayed a while. Anyone who is in line at 7 p.m. will be allowed to vote. The election is run by the Democratic Party. The state has no role in today's election. Only Democrats can vote today. State Party Chairman Brian Colòn issued a statement calling the turnout "amazing." Obviously, the party was caught off guard in Rio Rancho by having only one voting location for all the precints there. That seems to be the major snafu of this Election Day.

At Hoover Middle School in the NE Heights about 100 Democrats were lining up to vote at 1:30 p.m. which is notable because that is past the lunch hour when voting could be expected to be heavy. In ABQ's downtown area, Wells Park Community Center was heavy as polls opened. Our spotter said over 100 people voted there in the first hour of balloting. The ABQ Trib reported about 35 people were lined up to vote at Apache Elementary in the far NE Heights when polls opened.

From another of our blog spotters who voted at Monte Vista Christian Church near Monte Vista and Campus in NE ABQ: "It took us 40 minutes to get through the line even with four lines to check folks in. Since it only takes 30 seconds to vote, I'd say lots of votes are being cast.

From Hobbs, in SE NM, we get this report: "It is a good turnout here in Hobbs. Over 300 people so far at my polling place..." We also are hearing of good turnout in Roswell and Deming.

Observers told me network news exit pollsters were spotted here, so we should have some good NM demographic information on who voted in NM today.

In Santa Fe, voting is heavy at the Santa Fe Fairgrounds. Nash Garcia reports: "At the Fairgrounds it took 40 minutes from time of entrance to time of vote completion. Arrived at 12:25 and departed at 1:05." More on Santa Fe voting here

In Tesuque at a location where five precincts voted, about 350 cast ballots in the first two hours--another good turnout.

We are also getting reports of quite a few people showing up to vote who are not listed on the Dem registration rosters. They are being given provisional ballots. Those ballots will not be counted today, but will be on Wednesday.

Initial signs point to a solid turnout in ABQ. There are 184 voting locations around the state, fewer than in a regular election. Also, polling hours were restricted, adding to the crunch at the polls. Some of the problem may be blamed on the party not budgeting enough money for the caucus. But since Governor Richardson was running, our caucus was expected to be a low-key affair. But that all changed when he dropped out and the Obama-Clinton battle became so intense.

Democratic consultant Harry Pavlides said based on today's reports he projects a total voter turnout in excess of 125,000. He had it right on caucus day 2004. The state party said it prepared 150,000 ballots and the party chairman said tonight voter turnout could approach that number.

The polls opened at noon and close at 7 p.m. We'll keep you posted with our live blogging. We will wrap the NM action here and tonight on National Public Radio heard in ABQ/Santa Fe on KANW 89.1 FM.

Email your voting day news.

(c)NM POLITICS WITH JOE MONAHAN 2008
Not for reproduction without permission of the author
Posted by: Joe Monahan / Wednesday, February 06, 2008

Tuesday, February 05, 2008

A Super Surprise Today? Clinton Fights A Surging Obama As NM Prez Caucus Day Arrives; Complete Coverage & Analysis, Plus: Live Blog Results Tonight 

We're going to miss this campaign, and we haven't been able to say that in the past 20 years. You don't know how weary you are of thirty second attack ads until you spend two weeks in the middle of a presidential campaign and don't see any. And what happened to those anonymous phone calls and scary color mail pieces? Maybe we're giving the Obama and Clinton campaigns too much credit. They really didn't have time to go negative since they only had a couple of weeks to campaign here. Whatever the reason, we liked what we saw and we hope we see more of it. Now, to the Election Day action.

There are about 533,000 registered New Mexico Dems eligible to vote in today's caucus. A 15% turnout would give us 80,000 voters and with the frenzy of activity here--visits by the candidates and their top surrogates--you gotta believe we will at least hit that number, if not surpass it. NM Dem Party Chairman Brian Colòn seemed to back away Monday from his earlier prediction that only 30,000 to 40,000 D's would turn out.

"Activity has been feverish," he told NM TV news dean Dick Knipfing on KRQE late Monday. Colòn remains skeptical that we will match the over 100,000 that showed up for the Prez caucus four years ago. The polls are open today from noon until 7 p.m. To find out where to vote, check here. If you need additional help call 1-800-624-2457.

One of our readers in state government reminds us:

"According to the State Personnel Office the attorney general decided that state workers are not allowed voting time for the Dem caucus" because it is a political party election, not a state election.

Thanks state worker. You mean Big Bill has not blocked access to the blog from state computers? We really need to say something nice about his beard.

THE GUV IS NO "GET"

The Guv told CNN Monday that he didn't think his beard looked all that great, but the comely anchorwoman quickly responded that she thought it fit the Big Fella just fine. The Guv did not say who he is voting for in today's Prez caucus. He was courted heavily by Clinton and Obama but in the end held out from an official announcement, although having ex-Prez Clinton watch the Super Bowl with him Sunday sent a loud message. Bill said he could still make an endorsement following Super Tuesday, but seemed somewhat disinterested in the process. And why not? He campaigned for the White House for a year and has to be smarting from the rejection. He seems to be in no mood to bargain for a big government job. That could change, but he may need a good stretch of R&R before his ambitions are rekindled.

TURNOUT ANALYSIS

NM turnout could be dampened by the big winter storm that slapped much of the north Monday. Snow is rooftop high in way-up-north Chama and you have to wonder how high a priority voting is as folks dig themselves out. The consensus among my experts is that the northern weather is good news for Obama since Clinton is thought to be strong in heavily Hispanic and snowstorm ravaged Rio Arriba county. However, they still see Clinton turning in wins tonight in the Northern congressional district as well as the southern district. The ABQ district, they say, remains Barack's best shot at a NM win. Nine of the 26 delegates that will be handed out tonight go to the statewide winner. Obama may struggle to take the outright win, but when the campaign started he was seen losing here by double digits. The conventional wisdom now has him getting into single digits, and an outright upset is not out of the realm of possibility.

THE FINAL PLEAS

Perhaps sensing some leakage in her Hispanic support since the Obama endorsement by Senator Ted Kennedy and his NM visit, or just working to close the deal, the Clinton campaign Monday put up a final TV spot featuring the son of Robert F. Kennedy and the grandson of United Farm Workers legend Cèsar Chavez. It had been running heavily in L.A. It may not resonate as much here, but it could be enough to stanch any bleeding that has developed for Hill in the state's largest ethnic voting bloc.

A surging Obama also closed positive with a spot that positioned him as the candidate of the future and put on the screen his endorsements by the ABQ Journal and Santa Fe New Mexican. But the knock-your-socks-off spot came Super Bowl Sunday when Obama hit all Super Tuesday states with this post-partisan ditty. Whether you're Democrat or Republican, the polls say you are very likely dead tired of the Iraq war and the general national malaise. This spot was aimed squarely at that weariness and the young people who Obama hopes will help him turn the next page of American history.

THE PARTIES

With as many young people excited about this year's Dem contenders, the Election Night parties should be fun. Here is the details on Obama's ABQ and Santa Fe election bashes. Hillary's camp will throw a party at Garduno's on the Green in NE ABQ starting at 8 p.m. Both campaigns will have the troops out today waving signs from street corners urging commuters to visit the polls. I remember back in 1980 when I was working for ABQ GOP Congressman Manuel Lujan and Bill Richardson used that sign-waving tactic. It had never been done before here and scared the hell out of us. Now it is part of Campaign 101.

We'll live blog Super Tuesday results tonight and also report for National Public Radio, so be sure to visit us again for the very latest.

THE LEGISLATURE

The New Mexican's Kate Nash said recently that this was one of the slowest legislative sessions in her memory. Observers say look for the pace to pick up, but not necessarily the production. ABQ Dem State Senator Dede Feldman, one of the leading advocates for health care reform, has not thrown in the towel on getting a bill out of this thirty day session, but she did issue a warning on her blog:

"This kind of gridlock may be typical for this stage of any session, and I remain optimistic on that count, but I wouldn't be too surprised to start hearing calls for a special session from the fourth floor this week."

The Governor calling a special session to win a major health care overhaul in a year when all 112 members of the Legislature are up for election? Isn't that like expecting the Chicago Cubs to win the World Series?

ODDS AND ENDS

Who is the guy from SW NM seeking the 2010 Dem nomination for Guv? We said Monday Diane Denish was unopposed, but I recall another candidate but their name evades me. Also, Di's camp thought our Monday blog implied she did not support limits on campaign expenditures. She does. And syndicated columnist Jay Miller wonders if ABQ politico Ted Martinez who went to the President Clinton rally with former NM Guv Dave Cargo isn't a Republican. We said he is a Dem. If you can help, pass it along to us or Jay who is covering his umpteenth legislative session. Also, we neglected to credit Las Cruces reporter Heath Haussamen for the info we passed on over the weekend about a prez poll conducted by a NMSU class.

GLAMOUR SHOT
Jessica Wolfe
Here is a pic sent in by newly minted ABQ Dem congressional candidate Jessica Wolfe. Contrary to what we implied last week, 28 year old Jessica does have political experience. The ABQ Tribune's Phil Casaus reports Jessica was chosen as prom queen at La Cueva High School. We can hear her Dem rivals, Rebecca Vigil-Giron and Michelle Lujan Grisham, purring in the background: "Isn't that special?" Welcome aboard, Jessica. The school of La Politica is in session.

E-mail your news and comments, and join us again later today for Super Tuesday coverage

(c)NM POLITICS WITH JOE MONAHAN 2008
Not for reproduction without permission of the author
Posted by: Joe Monahan / Tuesday, February 05, 2008

Monday, February 04, 2008

Goodbye Super Sunday, Hello Super Tuesday; NM Election Eve Scramble For Hill & Barack, Plus: Richardson's Prez Straddle, And: Di's Money Surprise 

The New Mexico presidential caucus campaign has been swinging like Count Basie and it isn't over yet. The Obama and Clinton campaigns today will keep the music playing. Michelle Obama puts in an Election Eve appearance in Las Cruces at 7:30 p.m. on the NMSU campus. Hillary will be back in "Town Hall" mode, putting a satellite signal into 22 "Super Duper Tuesday" cities including ABQ, where former NM first lady Clara Apodaca will host a gathering at the National Hispanic Cultural Center.

Both recent NM visits from the Dem heavyweights were highly successful. Obama's Friday sojourn to ABQ and Santa Fe and Hill's "Live From ABQ, It's Saturday Night!" love-in at Highland High drew impressive crowds. They charged up the Democratic Party faithful who will vote Tuesday from noon to 7 p.m. (Voter info here or at 1-800-624-2457.)

Neither campaign is predicting victory, but everyone knows a popular vote win by Obama here would be a huge upset. He has the momentum going into the final days, but Hill may have slowed it with her Saturday night shout-out.

IF NEWSPAPERS COULD VOTE

If newspapers could vote, we wouldn't have to have an election. Obama has snared the endorsements of all the biggies. The ABQ Journal, largest of the dead trees, came for the Illinois senator. Earlier, the liberal ABQ Tribune did the same as did the Los Alamos Monitor. From a political perspective, the most important newspaper nod (if any of them are important) was for Obama from Santa Fe's New Mexican. That paper reaches the Northern counties where Obama must cut down on Hillary's lead among Hispanic voters.

Obama did not have much time to put his endorsements to work, but he had time enough to slap the New Mexican's logo on one of his NM TV ads, giving him a local touch that he needs. The Clintons are well-known and, at least in traditional Dem circles, well-liked.

People around here are so hungry for change, they'll chew the stamps off of a piece of campaign literature. Give them anyone or anything different and you got them. Both Obama and Hill are offering that change, so look for both to do well here. The statewide winner gets nine of the national convention delegates. The rest are divided up based on performance in each of the three congressional districts.

THE EXPECTATIONS GAME


Is NM Dem Party Chairman Brian Colòn playing the expectations game by downplaying turnout for the Tuesday NM caucus? Could be. Colòn says only 30,000 to 40,000 Dems will cast ballots, compared to over 100,000 four years ago. There was more activity in '04, but Dem antipathy toward President Bush this year is so high it has been goosing Dem turnout in the early primaries. There's no reason to think it won't have the same effect here. A turnout as low as Colòn is predicting would be a bitter disappointment, but it would probably favor Obama whose supporters seem more intense than Hillary's. If turnout goes over Colòn's lowball prediction, look for him to spin it to benefit his and the party's leadership.

We're watching the weather report for Tuesday because if the snow comes down up North so will the vote totals. Northern snow also could help Obama as Hillary is favored among Hispanic voters. Right now the election forecast calls for some blustery weather and cold temps in Santa Fe. Never mind those robo calls and TV spots, watch the thermometer for the real turnout story.

SPEAK NO EVIL

On the subject of TV spots, have you noticed that there has not been any "negative" ads? Both Obama and Clinton have kept it on the high road. What a pleasant respite from the norm. We'd like to tell you it will last all year, but it won't.

TWO BILLS, BUT NO HILL

Big Bill shared his Super Sunday with ex-President Clinton, quaffing, we presume, finely distilled beverages while watching the annual pigskin match-up that captivates the country. This party, the Guv's spinners insisted, was not an endorsement of Hillary. Then what was it? Well, the Obama camp didn't need a Navajo code talker to see that Bill was cuddling with the Clintons, and gobbling up 10 p.m. Sunday night news time.

But it will be Hill, not Bill, commanding the White House if things go her way, and as much as former Prez Bill would like to have the boys over for Tuesday night West Wing poker parties, it ain't gonna happen. So our Big Bill has an in with the Really Big Bill. That's nice, but it's the chill with Hill that needs to be deiced. So why not throw her a pass on Super Sunday, rather than staying on the sidelines and pretending to root for both teams? We have a feeling that if Hill takes the Prez prize she's going to go first to those who actually got in the game. Maybe that will happen with our Bill before the voting starts, but the game clock is ticking down.

DI'S DOLLARS

While Big Bill tries to straddle the fence, or have a Clinton talk him down, New Mexico's #2, Light Guv Diane Denish, is all in for Hillary. If Hill loses the battle, Di takes a dive, but if she wins, there will be a nice payout and maybe even some extra pork barrel projects around here.

Denish is also all in for the 2010 Dem nomination for Guv. Since she sat on a Governor Richardson ethics task force that has called for numerous reforms to clean up state politics, she has decided to regularly report her campaign contributions to avoid the hypocrite label. She has done that, but a perusal of her latest report contains some eyebrow raising material. Denish accepted $7500 in campaign money from tobacco companies Altria (parent company of Phillip Morris) and RJ Reynolds. This, from the Light Guv who has made universal health care and child health care centerpieces of her political platform. Lady Di is currently unopposed for the nomination, but that tobacco money could create some political smoke for her.

Denish reported she now has raised nearly $1.4 million after taking in $284,000 in the final three months of '07. Di is scarfing up huge money from oil interests in her hometown of Hobbs. The SE NM community has been in a raging bull market as oil prices stay higher than the treetops. Denish took in $5,000 a piece from Lucky Services and Lucky Tool Rental. And that is just the tip of the drilling bit.

One of her biggest contributions came from the CR Property Fund of San Francisco which kicked in $15,000. The Guv's ethics task force has called for limiting campaign contributions and a bill is pending before the Legislature. While Denish is fine with giving up who is giving her money, she is not willing to slap a limit on how large a check she will take. Nor are many other politicos, so don't look for a limit law anytime soon.

THE CARGO CONSPIRACY


Believe me, we were not involved in a conspiracy to conceal former NM GOP Governor Dave Cargo's identity in a Bralley photo we ran Friday. It pictured Dave in the background with ex-President Clinton at Johnson Gym at UNM Thursday and we received a bunch of e-mail about it. I dialed up Dave who told me he is not supporting Hillary's prexy bid, but went to see Clinton at the invitation of some Dem friends, including ABQ politico Ted Martinez. By the way, Cargo now says he is not endorsing Steve Pearce for the GOP Senate nomination even though he introduced the southern NM congressman at his announcement event in October. Cargo says Heather Wilson, Pearce's rival for the GOP nod, is mad at him for helping Pearce, but he isn't endorsing her either. Now you know why they call him "Lonesome Dave."

THE BOTTOM LINES

Some clean-up from our Friday monster blog. Radio ads cut by Light Guv Denish and paid for by her PAC, do not endorse a candidate in the Tuesday caucus, but encourage turnout. We initially said they urged a vote for Hillary...Glen Bolger of Public Opinion Strategies (POS) in Alexandria, VA. e-mails in that the Alligator who provided details Friday on that US GOP Senate poll was off on one detail. "We tested the Summit Group's capabilities once two years ago and have not used them since. We are NOT a client of the Summit Group." The author of the poll is still unknown to us, but we are told it was commissioned by the NM GOP. It showed Pearce leading by five points--38% to Wilson's 33%.

Finally, the cool photo we ran Friday of six year old Megan Montoya getting the attention of ex-Prez Clinton showed Megan's grandmother Liz. We identified Liz as the mother of Megan and wife of biz consultant David Montoya. As we said, Liz is Megan's grandmother and Montoya's mother. The family e-mailed in that they laughed a good part of the day over that one. We cringed.

E-mail your news and comments and help keep the politics coming. Also, if you want to be on my new e-mail list, drop me a note.


(c)NM POLITICS WITH JOE MONAHAN 2008
Not for reproduction without permission of the author
Posted by: Joe Monahan / Monday, February 04, 2008

Sunday, February 03, 2008

Hillary In ABQ Draws 3000; Big Bill To Watch Super Bowl With Bill Clinton, Also: Obama Video; Michelle Obama To Cruces; NMSU Students Do Prez Poll 

Hillary at Highland High
The political news is fast breaking and never ending in this historic election year. Hillary Clinton drew what the AP called "a rowdy crowd" of 3,000 to ABQ's Highland High School Saturday night and not everyone could get in. Here is video of Hill's ABQ appearance. Her visit follows on the heels of the Obama visit which took place at the Kiva Auditorium Friday in ABQ. Here is video of the Obama appearance. The NM Dem caucus is Tuesday. Voter info is here.

KKOB-AM reporter Peter St. Cyr was on the scene.

" More than 3,000 people patiently waited at Highland High for the candidate who appeared over an hour late. Former San Antonio Mayor and Clinton cabinet secretary Henry Cisneros warmed up the crowd. They were delighted when Chelsea Clinton appeared on stage with her mother. Moments after beginning her speech, a woman fainted on stage, but was fine after having a bottle of water. At least two of the state's "Super Delegates" were on stage with Clinton, Lt. Governor Diane Denish and Mayor Martin Chavez. Clinton asked the crowd for their support. She said "if you are ready for change, I'm ready to lead, so let's go make history together. "

Obama drew over 5,500 to his Santa Fe visit Friday night. And a similar number in Albuquerque.

Senator Obama's wife, Michelle, will campaign in Las Cruces Monday night. Details from the Las Cruces Sun-News.

There is no professional polling on the Dem NM Prez race, but a New Mexico State University class conducted a survey January 22 thru Janury 31 that gave Obama a six point lead over Hillary--48% to 42%, but the question lingered whether it had more enertainment than scientific value. You can download it here. Most of the professionals still think she has an edge going into Tuesday's balloting. We'll know soon enough.

The big Dem crowds for Obama and Hillary could presage a large turnout for Tuesday.

RICHARDSON TO WATCH GAME WITH CLINTON

CNN reports Governor Richardson will watch the Super Bowl with former President Bill Clinton in Red River in northern NM. Richardson has not endorsed a Dem presidential candidate, but watching the big game with the ex-Prez might be a clue on who he backs. Don't you think? Insiders are saying that Richardson is not going to give a formal endorsement of
Hillary.

Stay tuned here through the weekend. We'll have the latest.

(c)NM POLITICS WITH JOE MONAHAN 2008
Not for reproduction without permission of the author
Posted by: Joe Monahan / Sunday, February 03, 2008

Friday, February 01, 2008

Now It's Obama's Turn; In City Today, Plus: The Bill & Ted Visits, Also: Exclusive GOP US Senate Poll, And: Candidate Money Reports; It's A Big Blog 

Kennedy in ABQ
He's a phenom and Democratic hearts are fluttering over his imminent arrival. Barack Obama continues the parade of Dem luminaries to our Enchanted Land today with a 1:15 p.m. visit to ABQ's downtown Kiva Auditorium. You can bet the 2300 seats will be filled. Other rooms at the Convention Center complex will handle any overflow. The campaign is calling it an "Economic Summit;" the political junkies are calling it a rock concert. And like a concert, you will need a ticket to get in. Not that you had to pay. You simply signed up on the Net. The page where you did that is already defunct, so apparently they reached their audience goal.

Obama's visit is essential to capitalize on his national momentum. Gallup has him closing fast. Obama says this campaign is about the fierce urgency of now. He can say that again. The Illinois Senator must make all his New Mexico moments count. He does not want to get blown out by Hillary in a key presidential swing state like ours. He needs to show doubting Dems he can compete, especially for Hispanic votes.

Obama today will follow the path laid Thursday by Senator Kennedy and head to Santa Fe after ABQ. He has a 6:30 p.m. event scheduled for the Santa Fe Community College. Some of our experts wanted Obama and Kennedy to take it even deeper into the North. For example:

"He is running into the rumor mill north of Santa Fe. There is word coming out of the churches that he is a Muslim and can't be trusted. Remember, in 2004 many Catholics abandoned Kerry because of his pro-choice position." Relayed one of our political watchers.

But Obama, who is not Muslim, has 22 states to cover for "Super Duper Tuesday" and a two city NM visit is almost a luxury. He hopes Kennedy softened the ground for him with Hispanics and that he can come in today and win many of them over.

In ABQ, the Volvo drivers, the UNM Ivory Tower crowd and the self-described "progressives" are already in Obama ecstasy. Today he must broaden his message to all New Mexicans.

A CLINTON DRAMA

Some political hearts skipped a beat late Thursday when the Clinton campaign put out a news release saying Hillary would be visiting Las Cruces Saturday, but not Albuquerque. Wrong move, cried the Alligators, pointing out that ABQ and the Spanish North is the battleground in this race. Clinton is expected to easily carry the Southern congressional district in which Las Cruces resides. Well, a few hours later the Clintonistas said "never mind." Hill would be coming to ABQ, not Las Cruces, after all. The visit will be Saturday evening, with details to follow.

EXPERT NM PREZ ANALYSIS


The 26 NM delegates that will be decided from the results of Tuesday's Democratic caucus will be awarded by performance in each of the state's three congressional districts, plus the overall statewide results. A candidate must get 15% of the popular vote in a congressional district in order to win delegates. They also get delegates for going over 15% statewide. Experts consulted over the years by "NM Politics with Joe Monahan" say the 1st Congressional District which includes most of Albuquerque is "lean Obama." They say the Southern 2nd CD and the Northern 3rd CD are both "lean Clinton." Delegates are awarded proportionally, meaning Obama and Clinton will both score delegates in each of the CD's as long as they go over the 15% mark. A total of 38 NM delegates, including 12 unpledged, will go the Dem national convention this summer.

BILL IN THE HOUSE

Clinton in ABQ
Bill Clinton drew a couple of thousand to Johnson Center on the UNM campus Thursday. He was flanked by NM Lt. Guv Diane Denish, former NM Guv Toney Anaya, ABQ Mayor Marty Chavez, State Auditor Hector Balderas and United Farm Workers leader Dolores Huerta. Before he helped Hill in ABQ he attended a $2300 a pop fundraiser at the Santa Fe home of attorney Steven Moise and wife Beth. Our insiders say about 50 to 60 attended. Among those on hand were former NM first lady Clara Apodaca whose husband, former Guv Jerry Apodaca, is supporting Obama. Also enjoying the reception were former NM House Speaker Raymond Sanchez, former NM Dem Party Chairman John Wertheim, Auditor Balderas and Dem heavy Ed Romero.

After raising the campaign dough, President Bill wandered over to the Roundhouse where a brief frenzy ensued. The ex-Prez met with lawmakers in the House lounge. By the way, Lady Di has cut radio ads urging NM Dems to vote in the caucus. The ads do not endorse any candidate. Talk radio giant KKOB-AM is one of the stations airing the spots.

Ted Kennedy spoke on behalf of Obama at the ABQ National Hispanic Cultural Center before heading north. Our photog, Mark Bralley, said about 250 were on hand in ABQ to see the 75 year old Dem legend. His speech went well and was peppered with that old time liberal religion. Teddy later went on to Santa Fe to woo more Hispanic voters for Obama.

THE VARGAS TAKE

We have details on the Kennedy-Clinton visits from the WaPo's Jose Antonio Vargas who is working the NM Prez beat this week. KNME-TV has complete video of the Clinton and Kennedy visits. The station will post Obama's speech this afternoon.

HEATHER SCORES

Heather Wilson scored a sorely needed psychological victory Thursday in her battle with Steve Pearce for the GOP US Senate nomination. The ABQ Congresswoman edged out the southern NM congressman in fundraising in the fourth quarter of 2007. Heather raised nearly $517,000 and now has a healthy $1.1 million in the bank, while Steve raised about $426,000 in the final three months of '07 and has $820,000 on hand for the battle ahead. But Democrat Tom Udall blew the doors off and sent a message to America that New Mexico is leaning Dem on this race to replace Republican legend Pete Domenici. Udall raised a whopping $1 million dollars and begins the epic battle for the power and glory of the US Senate with $1.7 million in the bank.

Wilson has struggled on the early campaign trail, attracting miniscule audiences and not projecting the energy of rival Pearce. Insiders keep harping that voter patterns favor conservative Pearce in the primary. The Pearce spinners say she raised more money in the fourth quarter because she had a couple of more weeks as a candidate than Pearce. But Wilson has always been an adept money raiser. This report reinforces that reputation.

EXCLUSIVE POLL INFO

Heather is going to need every dime she raises and then some if an insider poll has the race right. The survey, apparently commissioned by the state GOP and taken among 500 likely NM GOP voters on January 13th, shows Wilson trailing Pearce 38% to 33% with the rest undecided. The poll was taken just before Pearce went up with his big TV buy which is still airing in the key ABQ market.

Folks, If I get you any more inside these campaigns, you'll be doing the candidates' laundry.

THEY KEEP COMING


The number of Dem ABQ Congressional contenders has now hit five, meaning early favorite Martin Heinrich is going to have his hands full fielding barbs from the other four hopefuls. Former Secretary of State Rebecca Vigil-Giron will make her run official this Saturday at 2:30 at the ABQ Hilton. Meantime, political unknown Jessica Wolfe, a former cabinet aide to Big Bill, is also running. Insiders say Wolfe has personal wealth that could be a factor.

Filing day for the federal offices is February 12th. Candidates are falling like snow flakes. All we can do is wait for the 12th and see if everyone saying they are running is for real and then start handicapping the outlook.

GREENBACK REPORTS

Darren White
What a day Thursday was. All of the NM Prez campaign activity, plus the money reports in all the congressional races. The reports for the ABQ seat were particularly interesting. Bernalillo County Sheriff and GOP US House hopeful Darren White reported he raised $213,000 and had cash on hand on Dec. 31 of $173,000. The leading Dem contender, former ABQ councilor Heinrich, said he raised about $145,000 in the last quarter of '07 and that his campaign has now raised a total of $465,000 since starting last summer. He has cash on hand of $277,000. Earlier, Dem Michelle Lujan Grisham reported she has about $95,000 in cash.

Among those giving Darren $2300, the maximum for the primary, was ABQ Frontier Restaurant owners Larry and Dorothy Rainosek who gave a total of $4600; auto dealer Don Chalmers gave $4600--$2300 each for the primary and general elections; attorney Mickey Barnett kicked in $2,000 and ABQ PR heavy Doug Turner gave $2300. Heinrich's individual contributors were not yet posted on the FEC site last night. ABQ State Sen. Joe Carraro is also seeking the GOP nod

Political experts are now saying the energy seen in the Dem Prez race may be changing the complexion of US House races, including the one in ABQ. White is well-known, but if a Dem Tsunami develops, even a second-rate Dem candidate could have a chance at finally taking the seat for their party. White's money report was not bad, but neither was it outstanding. Based on Dem turnout in the early primary states and the initial money reports we rate the ABQ congressional race a "toss up," meaning right now there is no clear favorite.

UP NORTH

Now some Dem money action for the northern Congressional seat. First, we hear from Ben Ray Lujan: "Lujan announced his candidacy on December 14, 2007, raised $103,500 during a 17-day period. His campaign currently has $92,246.69 cash on hand, which includes a $50,000 personal loan to his campaign."

Now to Don Wiviott's campaign: "Wiviott reported a strong showing of nearly $300,000 cash-on-hand at the end of the fourth quarter. Wiviott had $299,465 cash-on-hand on December 31, 2007 after fundraising for 19 days in his bid to replace the seat currently held by Rep. Tom Udall." (Wiviott has loaned himself significant money.)

The rest of the crowded Dem field for the northern seat is not yet raising significant cash. We'll keep you posted and will also soon have exclusive analysis of the southern congressional money race.

WHAT'S IT ALL ABOUT?

This photo is what it's all about--to be six years old and playing with a President. Megan Montoya is the tyke being doted on by Bill Clinton as smiling grandmother Liz, mother of ABQ biz consultant Dave Montoya, joins the fun. The pic was snapped at the high-dollar Santa Fe fundraiser attended by President Bill Thursday morning. It will be a lifetime memory for Megan who makes her debut in the never ending book of our beloved La Politica.

Kennedy, Clinton and White photos by Bralley. Megan Montoya by the Gators.

(c)NM POLITICS WITH JOE MONAHAN 2008
Not for reproduction without permission of the author
Posted by: Joe Monahan / Friday, February 01, 2008

Thursday, January 31, 2008

America's Top Dems Are New Mexico Bound; Caravan Of Heavies Sarts Today; Bill Clinton & Ted Kennedy; Then Hill & Barack, Also: Pearce's Plays 

The grand finale of the 2008 New Mexico Democratic presidential caucus starts today. And what a show it's going to be. Today alone party superstars Bill Clinton and Ted Kennedy will campaign in the state. Friday Senator Obama supporters will jam ABQ's downtown Kiva Auditorium to hear from a superstar in the making. Over the weekend Hillary Clinton, now an historic political figure, will complete this cavalcade into our Land of Enchantment. The burst of activity is creating enthusiasm in the state's majority party and could boost turnout next Tuesday, despite hard to find voting locations.

No recent public polling has been released on the NM caucus, one of 22 Dem contests to be held across the nation next Tuesday. However, a Clinton campaign insider told me internal polling shows Hillary doing "very well" among Hispanics in NM, Colorado and Arizona. The concern is getting them to the polls and the momentum Obama has built since his big win in South Carolina and the endorsement of his candidacy by Senator Kennedy.

Kennedy, 75, will appear at the National Hispanic Cultural Center in ABQ at 10 a.m. today and then make his way to Santa Fe for a 1:30 p.m. appearance at the Santa Fe Community College. The Kennedys have long political ties to NM, beginning in 1960 when Rio Arriba County political boss Emilio Naranjo helped put the county in the Jack Kennedy column. Naranjo is no longer the boss and he is not with Ted Kennedy on this one. He has a sign in his yard supporting "The Lady Senator from New York."

My earliest NM memory of Ted Kennedy is a 1974 appearance he made on behalf of then Lieutenant Governor Roberto Mondragon who was running against Republican Manuel Lujan for the ABQ congressional seat. The Senator appeared at the old Civic Auditorium for a packed 7 a.m. rally. He held a news conference where I asked him about the then hot issue of busing students around Boston to achieve racial desegregation. He did not like the question.

Kennedy was also here in 2004 for Prez candidate John Kerry. In '82 he came in for then-Congressman Richardson. President Kennedy made a famous 1962 visit to ABQ when he stayed at the old Western Skies Hotel on the eastern outskirts of the city.

To this day in many northern NM households there are photographs of Jesus and President Kennedy side by side. The Kennedys were ahead of their time in advocating civil rights for Hispanics and blacks. The question now is whether Senator Kennedy is ahead of his time in supporting an African-American candidate for President, or has that time finally come?
(Here is video of Kennedy Thursday morning at the Hispanic Cultural Center.)

BILL'S BACK

New Mexico welcomes back Bill Clinton today when he holds a 3 p.m. event at Johnson Center at UNM. He has always liked the state, perhaps because it has similarities to his home state of Arkansas. Both have large swaths of rural areas and one big city, a large number of economically humble households and an obsession with politics, if not necessarily governing.

Bill easily carried our state in his two presidential campaigns. He spent a week in ABQ back in '96 preparing for his national TV debates with GOP challenger Bob Dole. His most memorable visit was in the wee morning hours of Election Day 1992 when he stopped at an airport hangar. Despite the early hour, he was greeted by a mass of adoring supporters. His love of Mexican food, his down to earth personality and his obvious affection for the underdogs of society have endeared him to the Democrats of this state, and not a few Republicans. Can that affection be passed on to Hillary who is working hard to establish a relationship with NM?

THE CANDIDATES LAND

Senator Obama's visit is all set. Expect an overflow crowd Friday when he conducts an "Economic Summit" at 1:15 p.m. Friday at the 2,300 seat Kiva Auditorium downtown. Following that he will head to Santa Fe for a "Stand for Change" rally at the Santa Fe Community College.

I don't know if the Senator has ever been here before, but there is great anticipation for this visit. Polls show an astounding 70% of the American people believe the country is on the "wrong track." Obama's politics of hope, unity and grace stand in startling contrast to what we have seen the past 20 years. The hunger for change has never been greater and Obama is feeding the masses. Democratic hearts swell when they hear him speak. Will New Mexicans be moved to go to the voting booths by this inspiring figure?

Hillary Clinton is expected here Saturday. As much as Obama is an example of inspiration, she is an example of perseverance and determination. Against the odds, she has prevailed and become the first woman to seriously contest for the American presidency. As first lady she visited NM on several occasions. She is well aware of our concerns, having competed on the campaign trail with Governor Richardson. If she makes it to the Oval Office New Mexico would be heard. Will Democrats hear her voice when they walk into the polling places Tuesday?

PEARCE STILL POUNCING

Besides the presidential candidates, the most active statewide campaign around here this month has been that of Steve Pearce's. The GOP US Senate candidate has been up on TV for weeks---the first buy of the '08 campaign---conducting numerous town hall telephone meetings and issuing a bounty of news releases on subjects ranging from tax cuts to interest rate cuts. He finishes January with a bang, reporting that a Wednesday night fundraiser in Santa Fe netted his campaign over $100,000. The event at the La Fonda was hosted by a bevy of energy industry heavies, including the Yates family of SE NM. Here's the official invitation.

Pearce also announced an endorsement by the anti-tax group, Club for Growth. The group gets involved in Republican primaries, supporting who they believe to be the conservative candidate. In this case, they go strongly for Pearce over his GOP rival, US Rep. Heather Wilson.

Steve Pearce has signed a pledge against raising taxes and has honored that pledge faithfully. He voted against every Democratic measure to raise taxes...In stark contrast, Heather Wilson is one of the most liberal Republicans in the House of Representatives and, if elected, would be one of the most liberal Republican Senators. Although Wilson signed the no-tax pledge when she was first elected to the House in 1998, she has broken the pledge numerous times.

The Club for Growth can be expected to raise money for Pearce from its lengthy membership list. Wilson, who still has a significant name ID advantage over Pearce, has been running a much more low-key campaign. But with Pearce continuing to put the pressure on, that could change sooner rather than later.

THE BOTTOM LINES

Late word that Dolores Huerta, head of the United Farm Workers in California, will travel to NM today for the Clinton campaign...

ABQ financial advisor and community activist, Victor Raigoza, will seek the Democratic nomination for State Senate District 10--an area that encompasses parts of ABQ's NE Heights, North Valley, Corrales, and parts of Rio Rancho. The district is currently represented by GOP State Sen. John Ryan.

Would you like to receive our blog directly to your email box when we publish? Drop me an e-mail saying "add me to mail list" and Ill put you on it. The list will receive my daily blogs, occasional news bulletins and special updates. Right now, it's free.

I'm Joe Monahan thanking you for joining me and reporting to you from Albuquerque, NM.

(c)NM POLITICS WITH JOE MONAHAN 2008
Not for reproduction without permission of the author
Posted by: Joe Monahan / Thursday, January 31, 2008

Wednesday, January 30, 2008

Candidate Money Reports Trickling In; What They Say, Plus: What McCain Called Pete; You Gotta See It, And: The Latest NM Prez Action 

Lujan Grisham
The first important money reports from the batch of candidates seeking NM's three open US House seats aren't due until the end of the week, but a couple are trickling out before the deadline. The latest comes from Michelle Lujan Grisham who met expectations for her fourth quarter '07 fundraising, but did not surpass them. The former Big Bill cabinet secretary filed a Federal Election Commission report that showed her raising about $116,000 and having $95,000 in cash on hand. Grisham is seeking the Democratic nomination for the ABQ congressional seat being vacated by GOP US Rep. Heather Wilson who is seeking the Senate seat being vacated by Pete Domenici.

Former ABQ city Councilor Martin Heinrich is the leading money raiser for the contest. He had taken in $368,000 as of September 30, 2007. He will add to that when he files his fourth quarter report. ABQ attorney Robert Pidcock is a recent entrant in the contest and former NM Secretary of State Rebecca Vigil-Giron is expected to come in as early as this weekend. Also, insiders say we could get yet one more candidate before filling day comes February 12th.

Grisham is hoping her money report will attract attention from such national groups as Emily's List which supports female congressional candidates. She announced her candidacy in mid-October so her $116,000 total is respectable, but her report reveals she was having some trouble attracting maximum contributors--those giving $2300. One maximum contributor was State Rep. Joni Gutierrez of Mesilla. State Expo Deputy Director Rodger Beimer came with $500.00.

THE LUJAN CONNECTION

Lujan Grisham is a cousin to the famous Republican Lujans. Manuel Lujan served as an ABQ area congressman for 20 years; his brother, Edward, was state GOP chair, and headed the Manuel Lujan insurance agency, founded by the brothers' father. Neither of the Lujan brothers are on her FEC report, but an agent of the insurance company did kick in $500 for the Dem hopeful.

Grisham has raised enough money to be taken seriously, her campaigns first goal, but the bar will continue to get higher as she goes forward against a determined Heinrich and an unpredictable Vigil-Giron. Stay tuned.

HARRY AND DI

Dem southern NM congressional contender Harry Teague released his money totals to us earlier this week. Here's a link to all the details, including the $4600 he received collectively from Light Guv Diane Denish and husband Herb.

SUN SHINES FOR MCCAIN

A big night Tuesday for John McCain as he took the GOP Florida Prez primary, beating out Mitt Romney who placed second. Senator Domenici recently endorsed McCain, even though he noted the two did not always get along. Just how much didn't they get along? Take a look at this piece from 2000 that's circulating on the Internet and describes how McCain repeatedly calls Pete "an asshole."

WAITING ON BILL

The WaPo's Jose Antonio Vargas paid a visit to Big Bill Monday and got the inside scoop on all the attention the NM Guv is getting from the Clinton and Obama camps as he weighs endorsing one of them in the Dem Prez contest. Ted Kennedy was among those romancing Richardson. Vargas will also soon hit the national newsstands with a piece on Hispanic voting patterns, including those in NM. I had some Starbucks with him as he was putting that one together on his laptop. Vargas is an up and comer on the national journalism scene. He is only 27, but already a key part of the Post's wide-ranging election team. The political reporter is based in California.

20% OR BUST

Will it take 20% at the preprimary convention for the congressional candidates to make the June primary ballot? A bill to eliminate the requirement is moving around the Roundhouse.

NM PREZ BEAT

A slew of endorsements dominated the NM Dem Prez action Tuesday. The mayor of Las Cruces came for Obama as did former NM Guv Jerry Apodaca and State Sen. Jerry Ortiz y Pino. Hillary touted her backing from former Navajo Nation Chairman Peterson Zah and released a new TV spot.

The Clinton campaign also provided details on Bill Clinton's Thursday NM visit. They included the 3:00 p.m. “Solutions for America” event at Johnson Center at the University of New Mexico, but they did not mention the Thursday morning $2300 fundraiser at the Santa Fe home of Steven and Beth Moise, but the Alligators told you about that yesterday, didn't they? By the way, Dem heavy Ed Romero is helping to pack them in for that event.

I did Caucus '08 with KOB-TV's Stuart Dyson Wednesday. Catch that report here.

About 120 Sandoval County Dems conducted a "straw poll" last night and tipped their collective hats Obama's way--50 for Obama, 41 for Clinton and 28 for Edwards. Northern Dem congressional candidate Don Wiviott finished ahead of Ben Ray Lujan, Benny Shendo and Jon Adams. Wiviott called it a sign of "early organizational strength" but Adams pointed out it was "an unscientific poll" and invited people to call him so he can show them the unscientific poll he recently won. Martin Heinrich topped Michelle Grisham in the 1st CD race. About 150 people attended the event sponsored by the New Mexico Democratic Club and the Democratic Women of Sandoval County.

E-mail us your latest news and political happenings.

(c)NM POLITICS WITH JOE MONAHAN 2008
Not for reproduction without permission of the author
Posted by: Joe Monahan / Wednesday, January 30, 2008

Tuesday, January 29, 2008

With One Week To Go, The Prez Cup Runneth Over; Barack & Ted Set Visit; Hill, Bill & Chelsea Expected, Plus: Race Analyzed, And: Latest House Action 

Dem Chairman Colòn
The blitz is on. TV ads, door-to-door canvassing, phone banks and in-person visits planned by the top two Dem presidential contenders are all part of the state political landscape as the clock ticks in earnest towards the February 5th caucus. And it wasn't even supposed to matter. But when Governor Richardson dropped out of the White House race and neither Senators Obama or Clinton had put the race away, our state and the measly 26 delegates that will be selected to the Dem National Convention next Tuesday suddenly mattered. A NM appearance is expected on Friday by Senator Obama. Senator Ted Kennedy who endorsed Obama on Monday is also slated for a NM visit. Obama will apparently hit both ABQ and Santa Fe. Initial national media reports had the two senators traveling NM together.

Ex-President Clinton wings in here Thursday for an ABQ-Santa Fe stop. Our Alligators say his visit will include a big money bash Thursday--$2300 a pop--at the Santa Fe home of Steve Moise, an attorney with long ties to the state Democratic Party. Hillary is rumored to make a Land of Enchantment touch down Saturday, but no confirmation yet. A Clinton insider says the campaign is working on bringing Clinton daughter Chelsea into Las Cruces this weekend.

TURNING THEM OUT

Despite all the excitement, we need to revisit the original turnout projections bandied about here that put the number at 100,000 of the over half-million plus registered Dems. State Party chair Brian Colòn says he would be happy to get 40,000 turning out because the grass roots efforts being made by the candidates pales when compared to what was done for the NM Prez caucus four years ago. Then, over 100,000 made it to the special voting sites. An absentee vote total of under 6,000 supports the chairman's view. We had nearly 20,000 early votes in '04.

"They spent in the neighborhood of $2 million last time to get the vote out. That kind of money has not been seen this time around." Colòn said.

We could get a pop, however, from the sheer closeness of the battle between Hill and Barack. Dem voters here will have a real say, along with the other 21 Dem "Super Duper Tuesday" states, on who will be the nominee. Their vote matters. (Dems can find out where to vote here.)

BIG BILL

One of the unanswered questions of Caucus '08 is if and when Big Bill will endorse one of the contenders. We blogged here a week or so ago that insiders were saying that he would indeed, but he still hasn't and some politicos are saying he will not, choosing to play it safe. The Guv's back is somewhat against the wall. If he wants a big national job with the next Dem White House, he may have to come with an endorsement. Don't you think others who want jobs and who are influential in other February 5th states aren't placing their bets as they position themselves for future goodies? If Richardson endorsed a candidate and that person lost New Mexico, it would be a blow to his prestige, but it wouldn't hurt him much politically. He will never again run for political office in the state. (That last sentence is strange to say.)

Other insiders are watching to see how many votes Governor Bill gets next Tuesday. His name, along with other Prez candidates who have dropped out of the race, will still be on the caucus ballot. If he somehow managed to get 15% of the vote in one of the three congressional districts or in the statewide total, he would be awarded convention delegates, something that eluded him when he ran in Iowa and New Hampshire before dropping out.

ASK SANTULLO
Santullo
Bill getting 15% may be a long shot and a novelty story, but we do know Clinton and Obama will easily cross the 15% threshold and each will win a share of the 26 delegates up for grabs. There are no recent public polls, but veteran NM politicos seem to have a consensus view that Clinton, despite Obama's South Carolina win and the Kennedy endorsement, maintains an edge here.

"I do think Hillary has an edge. She is a known quantity. Her husband carried the state twice, and she has important support among establishment Hispanics," commented talk radio host Mike Santullo, a Clinton supporter and longtime NM Dem politico.

Obama has picked up Hispanic support in the progressive wing of the state Dem party. His campaign hopes Ted Kennedy can help him peel away some of the so-called "regular Dems" here.

Will this be the last early NM Dem Prez caucus? Perhaps. It is costing a quarter of a million to put on--a lot of money for a state with only a handful of delegates to hand out. "There will definitely be debate about it," said Chairman Colòn noting he has been busy dialing for dollars to finance all the excitement.

CONGRESSIONAL ACTION


A reliable Gator tells me former NM Secretary of State Rebecca Vigil-Giron is planning a formal entry into the fight for the Dem nod for the ABQ congressional seat this Saturday. Can she raise the money to compete? Probably not. Could she get the 20% of the delegates at the March 15th pre-primary to get a place on the June ballot? Hard to tell. Would her getting a place on the ballot hurt the chances of Michelle Lujan Grisham, the other Hispanic candidate in the race? Probably so. Would running give Vigil-Giron some additional name ID as she prepares to run for the Dem lieutenant governor nomination in 2010? Yes. Are her chances pretty muddy for that contest? Yes.

Hobbs oilman Harry Teague has established himself as the man to beat for the Dem nomination for the Southern congressional seat, so why not release your federal financial report a couple of days early? He has. It shows Teague with $362,000 in cash on hand at year's end and having raised over $408,000, including $200,000 he personally put up. That is a considerable kitty and will put pressure on Dona Ana County Commissioner Bill McCamley, the other name candidate in the contest.

EVEN MORE STUFF

Secretary of Sate Mary Herrera is on the Hillary bandwagon. She officially endorsed Hill Monday. Benny Shendo, former cabinet secretary for the NM department of Indian Affairs and now a Dem candidate for the northern congressional seat, will today endorse Obama. NM GOP Senator Pete Domenici will give a farewell speech to a joint session of the Legislature on February 4th at 11 a.m.

We had e-mail reaction to our blog Monday on passage of the controversial domestic partners bill in the state House. We noted two Republicans, Justine Fox Young and Kathy McCoy, voted for the bill and against their party's line. The measure passed by two votes. ABQ GOP State Rep. Eric Youngberg did not vote, but said he would have probably voted for the measure which his party claims is a gateway to gay marriage. Reader Virginia Stephenson chimes in:

When Republicans are noticed to have voted for gay rights, why is the comment always about the incredulity of Republicans voting pro-gay rights, rather than the courage and integrity of certain Republicans to vote their conscience. And where do you see that the Bill will fail in the Senate? Last year it failed by ONE vote. It promises to be as close this year.

Thanks Virginia. If you have some news or comments, we look forward to reading them in our e-mail.

(c)NM POLITICS WITH JOE MONAHAN 2008
Not for reproduction without permission of the author
Posted by: Joe Monahan / Tuesday, January 29, 2008

Monday, January 28, 2008

GOP Misfires: Gay Rights Measure Passes House With Their Help; Media Upset Over Closed Congress Debate, Also: Bill Clinton In ABQ; Kennedy For Obama 

Reps. McCoy & Fox-Young
A pair of Republican Party misfires put smirks on the faces of the Dems this weekend. First, the Dems funny bone was tickled when the state GOP sent out an e-mail missive exclaiming that it only fell two votes short in stopping a domestic partner bill that eked through the state House Friday on a 33 to 31 vote. The e-mail urged party stalwarts to help kill the bill in the Senate. But guess what? Two House Republicans voted for the bill. That was not mentioned in the GOP e-mail, but it did have other R's wondering about the votes of ABQ's Justine Fox-Young and Kathy McCoy. They voted for the measure which the party sees as a gateway to gay marriage. Will their break with party orthodoxy on such a hot button issue prompt Fox-Young and/or McCoy to draw primary challengers this year?

In the case of Fox-Young, she survived an '06 primary challenge after breaking with her party on another key litmus test tissue--the death penalty. She voted for a death penalty repeal measure in 2005. Her primary opponent, former state Rep. Bob White, tried to make hay out of that, saying she had earlier told the ABQ Tribune she was a supporter of the death penalty. Fox-Young easily defeated White. The domestic partner bill is expected to die in the state Senate as it did last year.

ANOTHER MISFIRE

The R's had another misfire. The Bernalillo County GOP went ahead with a debate between ABQ GOP congressional candidates Darren White and Joe Carraro, even though the media was shut out. The Saturday breakfast predictably drew bad press for the contenders. Carraro said he never agreed that he media should be excluded form the debate held under the umbrella of the Bernalillo County Republican Party and hosted by former ABQ GOP State Rep, Rory Ogle. Ogle begged to differ. He told me for a second time Saturday that Carraro agreed to the exclusion. White admits he agreed to the no media rule and did not want to object to the rules so did not protest the media shut out. That struck a sour note with some e-mailers who pointed out the Sheriff is a former TV news reporter for KRQE.

Carraro decried the closed debate, but neither he or White would back down from participating. Dem congressional contender Martin Heinrich pounced on the chance to make merry over the R misfire.

Closing a debate between two candidates for the Untied States Congress may make a few insiders feel like a privileged few but it gave a black eye to White and Carraro and to county GOP chair Fernando C de Baca who remained mum on the entire affair, but who insiders now say will ban "no media" debates.

BILL CLINTON NM VISIT

Former President Bill Clinton will be in ABQ Thursday, the NM campaign of Hillary Clinton confirmed Monday afternoon. National media is reporting that Senator Ted Kennedy will stop in NM for Obama before our Feb. 5th caucus. Bill Clinton will also be in Santa Fe Thursday evening for a $2300 a person reception at the home of Beth and Steven Moise. Insiders tell me a Hillary Clinton visit appears to be in the works for Saturday. Obama is expected to be in ABQ and Santa Fe on Friday.
We are also getting word that Chelsea Clinton may be making a NM stop.

Former NM Guv Bruce King and wife Alice, longtime friends of Hill and Bill, endorsed Hillary over the weekend. Meanwhile, Barack grabbed a big get. Ted Kennedy is going to endorse him. That could help Obama in the Spanish North precincts of NM, where President Kennedy is still revered. The Clinton campaign says it is employing "bilingual" phone banks as it works to seal the deal here.

He was all ready to use his campaign fund to pay off his legal bills, but now NM GOP Senator Pete Domenici has put that on hold. Why? Troubles at the FEC.

SHORT, BALD AND HONEST

One of my favorite campaign slogans was when ABQ attorney Joe Diaz was running for mayor and went on TV and ended a spot by saying, "If you vote for me, I'll fix my teeth." He really said it. Joe had a mouthful of problems. He didn't win, but he got his teeth fixed anyway. Now comes another candidate making fun of his personal appearance in the hope of attracting some attention and votes. Greg Sowards, seeking the GOP nod for the southern congressional seat, titles his Web site: "Short, Bald and Honest." The first two attributes are self-evident. He'll have to prove to the voters he possesses the third.

Email your news and comments.

(c)NM POLITICS WITH JOE MONAHAN 2008
Not for reproduction without permission of the author
Posted by: Joe Monahan / Monday, January 28, 2008

Friday, January 25, 2008

Hill Talks About Our Bill; Looks Forward "To Working With Him." But How? Plus: Obama Sets NM Visit, And: Closed GOP Debate Raises Eyebrows 

The Contenders
There was no chill from Hill and that was good for Bill. The leading Dem presidential contender popped up on NM TV screens late Thursday doing an interview with KRQE-TV and showing no signs of holding a grudge against the NM Governor. When asked by anchor Deanna Sauceda if she would consider Bill Richardson as a VP pick, she said:

I have the highest regard and admiration for Governor Richardson. He is a great American in every sense of the word and I would be honored to have him part of my team in this campaign and in my administration because he has so much to give to our country. He has a tremendous track record of success in everything he has done and I look forward to working with him.

Well, you didn't expect her to actually answer the VP question, did you? Still, after the sour note struck between the Richardson and Clinton campaigns at the Iowa caucuses, Hill's mini-tribute to Big Bill had to fall softly on Bill's ears. His chances to be on the ticket are seen as slim, but there are other job possibilities if 2008 is a Clinton replay.

A Richardson operative told us last week to expect a presidential endorsement from the Guv before "Super Duper Tuesday" when NM and 21 other states have Dem caucuses and primaries. An endorsement of Obama would be a stunner, considering the Guv's long ties with Hill and Bill.

As for when she will visit here, the New York Senator said: " I am going to get there as soon as I can. I love coming to New Mexico. I'm excited about campaigning there so I will get there as fast as s possible.

Hill's NM campaign chair, Lt. Gov. Diane Denish, now says she expects two Clinton visits--one from Hill and one from Bill.

THE TRUTH SQUAD

Insiders said Friday that Obama will visit NM February 1st.


While Hillary was hijacking the airwaves here, her chief rival, Illinois Senator Barack Obama, was forming a NM "truth squad" to prepare against any attacks from the Clinton camp. "If what has happened in the other primary states is any indication, we could get the same here," warned Obama spokesman Trevor Fitzgibbon. The truth squad will be announced today and be charged with shooting down what the Obama camp sees as any out of line attacks. Obama squad members will include State Reps Kenny Martinez and Al Park and State Treasurer James Lewis.

WANNA KNOW A SECRET?

Former ABQ GOP State Representative Rory Ogle says KOB-TV is none too happy over his decision to exclude all media from the first joint appearance scheduled between the two candidates seeking the GOP nomination for the ABQ congressional seat. Bernalillo County Sheriff Darren White and State Senator Joe Carraro are scheduled to appear at Ogle's monthly Saturday morning breakfast at a local restaurant. Rory says the candidates have agreed to the "no media allowed rule." He says the candidates will be more "candid" with the party insiders invited to the session if the press is excluded, What? They will be telling a different story when the cameras are on?

If the first joint appearance by White and Carraro ends up as a donnybrook over media access, the candidates will only have themselves to blame. The weather has been frigid lately. Maybe one of them can call in sick. If not, their "secret" debate will be a headline maker, and not the kind the R's need or want. We'll let you know what happens.

(c)NM POLITICS WITH JOE MONAHAN 2008
Not for reproduction without permission of the author
Posted by: Joe Monahan / Friday, January 25, 2008

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