Democrats are still dancing in Bernalillo County but with an outside chance that their party could be disturbed by an upset Election Night. The only major race in which the Democrat is not polling above the 50% magic number is in that down-to-the-wire, hit-or-be-hit battle for district attorney. Our exclusive poll conducted Thursday night among 403 likely voters shows two-term incumbent Democrat Kari Brandenburg beating Republican Lisa Torraco. Kari gets 48.9% to Lisa's 43.3% with 7.8% undecided. The margin of error is 4.88%.

Torraco has hammered Brandenburg over her handling of several high profile cases and earned extra attention from the ABQ Journal which endorsed her this week. But Brandenburg has several TV spots in heavy rotation on the broadcast networks while Torraco is up on cable TV and radio. Brandenburg loaned her campaign $70,000 to close out the race and that could make the difference. The Democratic trend, exacerbated by straight ticket voting, may mean the race is out of reach. However, Torraco is close enough to justify working it hard all the way to the finish.

MARTIN AND DARREN

There is only a minor change in the race for the ABQ congressional seat in our latest poll conducted by Positive Contacts Consulting using automatic phone call methodology. New Mexico Politics with Joe Monahan asked 418 likely voters in Bernalillo County who they would vote for. 52.8% said they support Democrat Martin Heinrich and 43.9% said they would vote for Republican Darren White. 3.3% were undecided and the margin of error in the poll is 4.85%. The poll was scaled to reflect 48% Democrats, 36% Republicans and 16% Independents.

In our October 21 survey, Heinrich was polling 52.20% and White 40.63%. As is traditional, the Republican candidate is picking up strength in the final days, but based on these numbers the race remains "lean Democrat." White is expected to beat Heinrich substantially in the rural portion of the district, but if Heinrich wins Bernalillo County by two points or better it should be enough for the win. 

Our headline today is a real grabber, but we're in the business of promoting competitive elections, so anytime we see the big dog running away, we wonder what it's like running with the pup. So, with every indicator and pundit pointing to an Obama win in New Mexico Election Night, let's flip the coin and try to make the case for a McCain win in the Land of Enchantment, a stunning upset that would grip the nation.

WEATHER---One of those big fall snowstorms descends on Northern NM, surprising everyone and crashing voter turnout in the Spanish Democratic counties to below the poor turnout Kerry had there in 2004 when he lost the state. That cuts Obama's expected northern margin and boosts McCain statewide. Remember, early voting should be lower in many of those areas than in the city so an Election Day storm could pack a punch.

RACE CARD--The polls have it all wrong. There really is a "Bradley Effect." Maybe not as big, but Fernando C de Baca was right and older Hispanics waiting to vote on Election Day go against Obama 4 to 1. That's not enough by itself, but remember, we have that snowstorm going.

ABQ BURNOUT--The young ones (under 30) say this thing is over and turnout collapses around the university area precincts in Las Cruces and ABQ, as well as Santa Fe and Taos.

HEIGHTS ARISES--R's in ABQ's voter rich NE Heights have a change of heart and slap on their cashmere sweaters and surprise everyone by heading to the polls on Election Day in larger than expected numbers.

CALAMITY---The increased Republican turnout is pushed along by a huge news event that calls into question the foreign policy credentials of Obama. It happens on Friday morning, giving McCain a huge boost in the heavy early voting Friday and Saturday and absentees mailed on those days

So it could happen. The problem is one of these events alone wouldn't do it--Mac appears to need all of them. Still, we've done our public service for today. Obama supporters reading this may start walking their neighborhoods, trolling for votes. They lose weight, get healthier hearts and the national medical bill goes down. See, these blogs really do move the needle.

TURNOUT TIME

Obama campaign higher-ups here say they are meeting their goals for early voting and that provides them protection from any fall off in Election Day voting. One report we ran had early voting coming in low in heavy Dem Rio Arriba County, but an operative says early voting is going as Obama expected there, but the reports from the county clerk have been slow.

FARMINGTON FALL OFF

Potentially scary news for the R's out of Farmington. Early voting in San Juan County is lagging. Twice as many people voted early in 2004 compared with recent numbers. The Four Corners county is 46% Republican and 38% R and over the years has delivered reliable majorities for the R's. The big advantage Dems have shown over the R's in early voting is also of concern for the minority party. A low early turnout in the Farmington area is more of a concern for R's because R's traditionally cast much of their vote early and absentee. The many Navajo Democrats there tend to wait until Election Day. My experts say there are no key legislative races in play that will be impacted by a low Farmington area R turnout, but it would help Obama and congressional hopeful Ben Ray Lujan.

CUTTING THE FAT

The NM budget crunch can be alleviated in the short-term by recovering money put up by the Legislature for construction projects that have not been built. That's what the Guv is proposing and the search is underway to find money just sitting there. They're already looking in Dona Ana County, a process that is going statewide.

The Legislature has to approve transferring this unspent capital outlay money to the general fund so it can cover the money shortfall. Will lawmakers resist and look like pork barrel artists? The Guv has the PR advantage on this one, whether or not reluctant legislators go along. Some of that construction money has been there for years, a testament to the inefficiency of pork barrel politics.

THE ECLIPSE OF ECLIPSE?

We've long been on the side that says the sky is falling on Eclipse Aviation, and now it may.

Forecast International Inc. will release a new report in December that predicts Eclipse Aviation will cease production of its very light jets in 2009.

The forecast predicts the company will go out of business in 2009. You read that right--out of business. Eclipse laid off over 600 this summer in ABQ. There are still over a thousand employees there. Layoffs of that magnitude will take a major toll on the city economy.

Eclipse is the company that Big Bill and ABQ Mayor Mayor Marty pumped millions into. Chavez is up for re-election in 2009 and if Eclipse meets its demise you think it would be a big issue. But all of those running against Chavez were on the same bandwagon fueled by euphoria, making it hard for them to make hay.

TAX TIME

May we be the first to suggest that if Santa Fe starts getting the itch to raise taxes that they have plenty of room at the top of the tree? Big Bill's first tax cut years ago was for the most well-off New Mexicans. You remember that. It was the one meant to encourage wealthy executives--some from Eclipse--to locate here. Well, doesn't look like we will be needing to do that anytime soon. Of course, there shouldn't be any tax increases at all unless Santa Fe acts oblivious and tries to continue their spending party on your back.

POLITICAL FALLOUT

One wonders if Mayor Chavez will be as committed to seeking re-election as the local economy craters. Eclipse was his crown jewel of economic development. He went as far as announcing his 2005 re-election plans at Eclipse. How is that going to look in 2009? This recession is looking nasty and even usually placid ABQ does not look as if it will be spared. Chavez's approval rating, according to our recent Oct. 22 poll, was 45% in Bernalillo County, below the magic 50% mark. He may do a reality check before going for another four years. How things look after the holidays may tell the tale.

The failure of Eclipse would be a stern message to policy makers and biz leaders that our state's permanent funds and other resources need to be preserved, and that gambling with the state's savings is so 1990's.

CITY CASH CHAOS

We've told you recently that the deficit for the City of ABQ for the fiscal year that got underway in July was on track to total a whopping $50 million. Well, for the July quarter it was $17 million, according to chief financial officer Anna Lamberson. If it's the same for the October-December quarter, and there is no good reason to think it won't, that would be a deficit of $34 million for just the first half of the year. If the recession goes for a full year? That $50 million figure could look good.

Mayor Chavez and Lamberson need to act now or risk adding to the red ink. One of the biggest stumbling blocks is the over funding of the city's police and fire departments. Those two agencies alone are consuming a stunning 53 percent of the budget. But Chavez and the city council are reluctant to do what needs to be done, dreading the possible political consequences of a crime-fearing public. But the pressure will only grow for public safety efficiency and cutbacks if and when layoffs of classified city employees in other departments is required. (TV news reported last night trouble over proposed city employee pay raises.) There's already a hiring freeze at City Hall and vacant positions are going unfilled. Unless this economy snaps back, city government could be on a collision course with its sacred cows. Don't say we didn't tell you.

CAN YOU BELIEVE IT?

In light of that news, can you believe they are actually talking about raising ABQ taxes to finance a $400 million downtown arena and hotel complex? In this economy? In any economy? Did something get into the city water supply? Maybe their drinking the same stuff they had before turning the keys of the city over to Eclipse. Hey, if Eclipse goes under, maybe they can park all the planes that didn't sell in the arena that will be vacant year-round. Viva La Politica!

MORE CITY ACTION
Alan Armijo
Confirmed. Dem Bernalillo County Commissioner Alan Armijo is telling friends he has definite plans to run next year for the downtown area city council seat held by Dem Ike Benton. "It is not speculation; it is for sure," said one Armijo confidant. Wonder how Ike and Alan feel about that $400 million arena/hotel? Think some voters might ask?

And insiders say Dem Westside City Councilor Michael Cadigan will run for mayor next year as a "fiscal conservative." Is that the same Michael Cadigan who they threatened to recall for being a "California liberal?" Maybe Light Guv Denish, a good friend of Michael's, can give him some tips on how to fade the heat to come over his fiscal credentials. Let the games begin....

CAMPOS WATCH

We blogged yesterday of the five legislative races in which big money was being put in by R oilman Harvey Yates and commented that none of them appear to tip R. But readers chime in that Rep. Jose Campos of Santa Rosa needs to be watched. Yates is supporting R Matt Rush and they say he has a shot in that district. Duly noted. We will watch for it when we broadcast Election Night results on KANW 89.1 FM.

TEAGUE TALK

Has a sex harassment suit involving a female worker at Harry Teague's oil field services company in Hobbs been dismissed or not? Teague says it has. His GOP opponent for the southern congressional seat, Ed Tinsley, says it is still active. He launched a new round of cable TV and radio spots about the suit this week. That prompted Teague to send out the letter from his lawyer posted here (click to enlarge) that says the suit has been settled. However, it appears Tinsley is hanging his hat on a technicality. The lawyer says an "Order of Dismissal" should be entered in the case by October 31.

Still, an Alligator for Tinsley says: "I think Teague is pulling a fast one on the sexual harassment suit. He, his son and wife are the sole owners of both of their companies. The lady complained to Harry AND to his son. Neither ever responded to her complaints."

Meanwhile, seems Harry Teague, like Obama, believes in "spreading the wealth." He put up cash for 85 free roast beef dinners in Grants the other night to woo local voters. Now that's our kind of socialism. And Steve Pearce, you are so busted! You served hot dogs at your weekend ABQ Valley rally, letting your Hobbs neighbor Teague one up you in the north. What are the folks back home going to say?

UP THE LADDER

She was passed over for a NM Supreme Court appointment, but a favorite Big Bill ABQ judge gets her promotion. From the Fourth Floor:

Governor Richardson announced the appointment of Linda M. Vanzi to the NM Court of Appeals. Vanzi is currently a 2nd Judicial District Court Judge in Albuquerque. She will fill a newly vacated seat on the Appeals Court. “Judge Vanzi...stands out and is known for being fair and competent..." says Bill.

Vanzi gets the post held by Judge Lynn Pickard.

A SWINGIN' AFFAIR




Are we having any fun yet? You betcha....

E-mail us here.

(c)NM POLITICS WITH JOE MONAHAN 2008
Not for reproduction without permission of the author

Today in this fair state of ours there are 226,000 citizens who are at peace with themselves. They smile knowingly when the TV and radio blare the latest political ads; they give a knowing look when they hear their neighbors argue over Obama and McCain. The attitude of these citizens is eerily preternatural as they go about their business, oblivious to the rest of us who fret over the fate of the nation and the state of the state. Who are these throngs of the self-satisfied? Why, they are the early voters of New Mexico.

Osama bin Laden comes out for Obama? Who cares? Bush invades Iran? Not a problem. Steve Pearce calls for world peace and an immediate withdrawal from Iraq? Fugghedaboutit! They've already voted. There's no turning back now. But we can't blame them for bailing out of the final frenzied days of Campaign '08. Bliss is hard to come by in this world. If it takes early voting to get it, who are we to argue?

If early voting does indeed settle the soul, the residents of Lincoln County are as at ease as your grandma in a rocking chair on a summer night. Over 30 percent of voters in that county have already cast early ballots, the highest rate of any county in the state. There's a glimmer of good news in that for the beleaguered Republican Party. Lincoln is a majority R county. But it's only a glimmer of good news because registered voters there total just 14,000. In Big Bernalillo, TV news reports over 104,000 have already cast ballots, about 26% of the 393,000 now registered. Overall, Dems are outpacing R's in the early and absentee voting.

While the early voting is heavy, my experts predict between 70 and 75% of NM's 1,184,000 (updated number) registered voters will end up casting ballots, short of the over 80% who went to the polls in 1992 and set the state turn-out record.

HEINRICH VS. WHITE

You think the rhetoric is getting heated in the final days? For sure. ABQ Dem congressional candidate Martin Heinrich's camapign unloaded on Darren White's latest TV ad that calls Heinrich "disgraceful" "dishonest" and "extreme." It is an old-fashioned, hard-hitting Hail Mary that comes in the final hours and sometimes finds a receiver. Here's the punch back from the Martin spinners:

(ABQ GOP congressional candidate) Darren White released an outrageous, extreme television ad personally attacking Heinrich and echoing McCain's failed Swift Boat-style attacks. In this final week, White has escalated his vicious, unfounded attack ads rather than talking about his vision for what he would do in Congress. His campaign has consistently taken the low-road and hid behind hateful attacks and lies..."

White's nuke ad says years ago Heinrich hung out with radical enviro Dave Foreman who the ad says tried to shut down a nuclear power plant. If Heinrich does make it to Congress, he is going to have to carve out moderate positions on the environment and other key issues or face problematic re-election.

On this year's election KRQE-TV news anchor Dick Knipfing, in the game now 46 years, talked about the race Tuesday. We agreed that Heinrich appears headed to victory, but both of us believe White still has a shot at the upset. This district knows how to deliver a surprise, said the news legend. Just ask Congresswoman Patricia Madrid.

ED'S HAIL MARY

Southern GOP congressional hopeful Ed Tinsley is taking one more pass at closing the deal against Dem frontrunner Harry Teague, and it's a Hail Mary. Rancher Ed hits Harry over a sexual harassment suit filed against an employee of Teague's Hobbs oil field services company. Tinsley says the case is still pending; Teague said in a TV debate that it has been settled. The campaign also released radio ads attacking Teague for not being pro-gun, the sex harassment suit and one that mocks Teague's communications skills.

The Tinsley campaign also moved to strike down speculation heard here that Ed has basically pulled the plug on his campaign and will use his leftover campaign funds to pay back money he has lent himself.

"The Tinsley for Congress campaign wants to silence anybody who would doubt our commitment to this race..New and targeted ads districtwide are based on our opponent’s words and actions and his self-admitted inability to communicate a clear message.” Said Tinsley press aide jim Pettit.

Well, Jim, we can understand your desire to silence the Alligators. Trouble is, Ed is placing these targeted ads only on cable TV. That's not a whole lot of cash. Meanwhile, the southern race remains lean Dem. One other thing, Jim. It's near impossible to silence an Alligator. They have pretty big jaws that they just love to open.

HERE COMES CUMMINS

Tim Cummins, trying to buck the tide and take the ABQ Public Regulation Commission seat back in the Republican column, has come with an attack on incumbent Dem Commissioner Jason Marks. He tries to tie Marks to former state Insurance Superintendent Eric Serna who resigned under an ethical shadow. Insiders say polling in the district shows Marks keeping the seat, despite it being set up for the Republicans. Much of the problem is straight party voting that is boosting Marks, an attorney and chairman of the PRC. The seat was once held by longtime GOP politico Herb Hughes. And just a minute go I saw Marks on one of the network affiliate TV news programs.

BEN RAY ON THE ROAD

From the northern Dem congressional contender:

Ben Ray Luján, the Democratic nominee for Congress in the 3rd District, will attend an event today in Clovis with U.S. Representative Silvestre Reyes, Chairman of the Intelligence Committee.

Clovis is home to Cannon Air Force Base which was threatened with closure, but rescued by the state's congressional delegation. Reyes' ties to the military community seems to be the point of bringing him in as Lujan tries to show conservative Dem Anglos in Clovis that he can deliver for the area on Capitol Hill and make sure Cannon's new mission endures.

Lujan is starting to close out the race and comes with this spot. It shows him addressing a group of supporters and he carries the entire spot. His youth may be appealing in this year when voters want change. Lujan, son of NM House Speaker Ben Lujan, may be a little zesty in this one but it ends up working.

RIO RANCHO ACTION

Insiders are giving Sandoval County Commissioner Jack Thomas a pretty good chance of keeping in Dem hands the state House seat being vacated by Rio Rancho Mayor Tom Swisstack. He is being challenged by Paula Papponi. The district has leaned R in the past, but Swisstack, a popular figure in the city, moved the district to D. One election Tom won by less than 20 votes. But the Dem trend could help Thomas keep it for his party.

Meanwhile, the NM Dem Party has been going over the state finance reports and finds that SE NM oil gazillionaire Harvey Yates of the Republican Yates family is playing in several state legislative races.

New Mexico Turnaround, a Political Action Committee (PAC) funded almost exclusively by oil man Harvey Yates, reported having funneled over $140,000 into six New Mexico legislative campaigns, practically underwriting the entire costs of these campaigns.

The seats Harvey has been helping with are the aforementioned Rio Rancho battle. According to state D's, he has given Papponi $27,840; Mike Tellez running against Dem. Rep Nunez in Dona Ana received $21,700; Cathrynn Brown up against Rep. Heaton in Carlsbad got $24,630; Kent Evans trying to unseat Rep. Steinborn in Las Cruces received $24,630; Tim Lardner going after Valencia State Rep. Barreras was given $15,000 as was Matt Rush who is running against Rep. Jose Campos of Santa Rosa.

Insiders tell us GOP State Sen. Rod Adair of Roswell is helping to execute Yates' legislative campaigns. Adair's demographic research firm has received $48,000. The president for the Yates PAC is former ABQ GOP Rep. Garth Simms. Yates may have a long Election Night. All the Dems he is up against are favored to win.

LISA & KARI
Thank the man (or woman) upstairs for Kari and Lisa. With the political races closing out faster than a coffin lid on Dracula at sunrise, we need action for the final hours. And our gal pals are giving us some. Here we go....

GOP Bernalillo County District Attorney candidate Lisa Torraco says she does have TV ads up, but they seem to be mainly on cable. We did see some 15 second spots on KASA, Channel 2 in ABQ which is an over the air station. The spots attack Brandenburg. Lisa e-mailed in following our report in which we wondered where she was on the tube as incumbent Dem DA Brandenburg has made a pretty hefty buy, spending $70,000 of her own money. Torraco did not respond to our question if she was buying the major stations--CBS, NBC and ABC--which consultants say you need if you are to move the voters in a big way at this late stage.

Meanwhile, the ABQ Journal Tuesday endorsed Torraco, while Brandenburg supporters charged the morning daily of already doing that on their news pages. They claim that for the nearly eight years Brandenburg has been the county's chief prosecutor news coverage has been sparse, with months passing without any news of note. But Torraco's camp points out that it hs been recently that Brandenburg has made some of her most high-profile errors drawing the intense coverage.

DEEP INSIDER INFO
Pat Rogers
The conspiracy theory circulated by some Dems is that GOP attorney Pat Rogers has close ties to the newspaper and wants Torraco as DA to turn up the heat on advocacy groups like ACORN that have registered thousands of new voters. Rogers, who played a major role in the NM end of the US Attorney scandal, is an attorney with the Modrall Law Firm and a member of the board of directors of the NM Foundation for Open Government (FOG), a group heavily supported by the newspaper. Torraco was asked about Rogers' support during an appearance on KKOB-AM radio this week. She said he is just another Republican supporting her.

The polling on this battle has given R's some hope that Torraco would be one candidate who would escape the Dem tidal wave. An insider poll taken a couple of weeks ago had Brandenburg about 10 points ahead. The race may have tightened since then, but Brandenburg remains favored. Still, this is a bad year for incumbents, especially long-serving ones like Kari. NM Politics with Joe Monahan will poll the DA's race Thursday and bring you the results Friday.

MORE POLLING

On the topic of polls, Brian Sanderoff of the ABQ Journal will come with his second and final poll of the political season Sunday and it will include the southern congressional race featuring Teague and Tinsley. The paper did not poll that contest in its first poll released in early October. Polling we've seen shows possibly fatal damage being inflicted on Tinsley in Lea, Eddy and Chaves counties. In a poll conducted for this Web site Oct. 22 Teague was beating Tinsley in vote-rich Dona Ana County 48% to 38%.

VIVA LAS VEGAS

Michelle Obama worked a crowd of about 3,000 in Las Vegas in heavily Dem San Miguel County Tuesday afternoon, as the Obama campaign pushes hard for a turnout in this key area. Only 61% of the registered voters came out to vote in 2004. They should be able to bump that up to 70% with visits like Michelle Obama's as well as the field organization the Obama camp is fond of talking about. Let's see how they do in Vegas when the talking stops Election Night and the counting begins. (Thanks to Helen Laura Lopez for the pic from Vegas.)

CROWD CONTROL: PART II

We've been having fun pitting the Aggies against the Lobos over which city--ABQ or Las Cruces--can claim kudos for hosting the largest political rally in state history. We've pretty much nailed it down that it's the Lobos ball--the Obama Saturday rally was the biggest ever. But just so we aren't accused of being a referee favorable to our home city, we have more evidence for the call. Former Big Bill press secretary Billy Sparks calls with this report.

"Joe, I was working with the Democrats in '96 when President Clinton held his New Mexico State University rally. I staffed the event. I can tell you that the President mentioned in his remarks the crowd "of 35,000 or whatever it is" as he looked out at the sea of faces. It is clear that the Obama rally Saturday that drew 45,000 has been the biggest, although the president's visit was memorable."

Thanks, Billy. With a former NMSU regent verifying the Cruces rally numbers as well as KOB-TV's Valerie Castro confirming the crowd size through the station's archives and now Billy weighing in, we think even Dona Ana booster and State Rep. Joe Cervantes will have to agree Loboland takes this one.

For the conspiracy theorists--including the ABQ Journal's Bruce Daniels, a possible member of the Illuminati--we must tell you that Sparks works at the University of New Mexico. Would he dare twist the numbers in favor of the Lobos? Well, did Billy ever, ever do such a thing when he was press secretary for Big Bill?.....There, you have your answer.

ROCK AROUND THE BLOCK

Here we go, rockers. Santa Fe's Jim Terr is "Rockin' Round the Block." As in Jerome Block, Jr., the hyper-controversial Democrat for the northern Public Regulation Commission seat. Grab that gal over there and let's dance...



Ladies and gentlemen, now you're bloggin'.....

E-mail your news, comments and plantive cries for understanding.

(c)NM POLITICS WITH JOE MONAHAN 2008
Not for reproduction without permission of the author

A Tsunami warning has been issued and the captain has given the order. It's every man for himself. With just one week before Election Day, experts across the board say a repudiation of historic proportions of the Bush presidency and the New Mexico Republican Party seems unavoidable. Public and private polling here reveals the tsunami wave that is already splashing onto the early voting. It will now be a major upset if any Republican is elected to the United States Congress from this state in 2008. That would mean one party control of the state's five member D.C. delegation for the first time since the state added its third US House seat in 1983.

The US Senate seat which Pete Domenici reclaimed for the R's in 1972 is now days away from switching back to the D's. Insider polling indicates Tom Udall will lead the ticket, giving the Democrats New Mexico's two US Senate seats for the first time since 1972 when they were held by Clinton Anderson and Joe Montoya.

The NM state Senate, with a make-up today of 24 Democrats and 18 Republicans, is now forecast to go even more blue, with Democratic and independent polling showing GOP Senators Snyder and Rawson especially imperiled. At least two other R seats are thought to be at risk. The state House seems more stable, but it is already colored deep blue with 42 Dems and only 28 Republicans.

What you're seeing is not your father's Democratic Party. There is a ferociousness beneath the surface that is reminiscent of 1994 when R's regained the Congress after decades of being squished by the Democratic thumb. The R's wanted their revenge then and today the Dems want theirs.

Take, for example, the lambasting of NM GOP National Committeeman Pat Rogers and ABQ GOP State Representative Justine Fox Young. The pair decided to tie themselves to the mast and go down with the ship. When they came with charges of voter fraud, but could not produce any votes proving the allegation Democrats and their allies Monday rose up in near rage. Lawsuits were filed, and blogs and the mainstream media were all over it. Rogers and Fox-Young were soaked by the front end of the wave.

Another sign of a possible landslide in the making was seen when John McCain appeared Saturday morning in ABQ. Few, if any state Republican candidates showed up. ABQ GOP US House candidate Darren White, who stayed away from McCain's Oct. 6 ABQ visit, did give a speech at this one, but was long gone by the time McCain took the stage. White is expected to outpoll McCain in Bernalillo County Election Night.

FINGER-POINTING STARTS
Weh
The chairman of the state GOP, Allen Weh, is already coming under fire as the inevitable finger-pointing begins. Fairly or not, he now faces the prospect of his name forever being associated with one of the biggest Republican disasters in state history. Weh foes snipe that the decision by the party in 2006 not to seriously contest the governorship or the Bingaman senate seat now look reckless. Then there is the obsessiveness over protecting Heather Wilson in her ABQ House seat at the expense of party building around the state. Senator Domenici's decision not to retire in 2000 is more fodder for the second-guessers. Then there was the failure of the party to stop either Steve Pearce or Heather Wilson from risking their House seats to run for the US Senate. Like we said, the finger-pointing is already plentiful.

If this rout unfolds as it appears it will, the state Republican Party may find itself on the brink of irrelevancy. Top R's are already talking about how the Democrats will overreach and they will be back. Maybe. But first there is a tsunami to face and causalities to be counted.

MAYOR MARTY'S NUMBERS
Chavez
This is not an especially friendly environment for any incumbent, so we weren't terribly surprised when we saw ABQ Mayor Martin Chavez's approval rating in Bernalillo County was at 45.08%, below the 50% mark which signals vulnerability. The poll, conducted for New Mexico Politics with Joe Monahan by Positive Contacts Consulting October 22 among 712 likely voters, found that Chavez's unfavorable rating was 26.1%. Those with no opinion totaled 18.8%. But there is an "if." Chavez is more popular within the city limits and our poll was done of the whole county. Within the city, Chavez is probably right at that 50% mark, according to several polling mavens we consulted.

Still, Chavez is now serving his third four year term in and there are signs of fatigue. The days of 60% approval ratings appear gone. But what isn't gone is Chavez's political acumen vis-à-vis his opposition. He is expected to seek a fourth term next October and no big name opposition has surfaced. It appears Dem City Councilor Michael Cadigan, who has been an on again off again name, is now on again. Former State Senator Richard Romero says he may go as well. If both ran, they could split the liberal vote, helping Chavez who appeals more to moderates and conservatives.

Chavez, who wanted to advance to the governorship or Senate, sees that those dreams are out of reach. But the mayor's office is a different matter. Even with a somewhat mediocre approval rating, Chavez remains the class of his division when it comes to running for mayor. His foes have an opening, but it will take a lot of work to make it big enough to squeeze through.

THE GOATEE IS GOING

Never mind the weighty issues for a moment, what about Big Bill's beard, or "goatee" as radio shock jock Don Imus called it in an interview with the Guv Monday morning? "It's gone by the end of the year. It's a pain to maintain," said Bill.

We might add that facial hair is not a good idea when doing a job interview and it looks like Bill could be doing one....by the end of the year.

PEARCE VS. UDALL

We're getting near the end and you can tell it because the candidates are starting to close out on a positive note. Here's Republican US Senate candidate Steve Pearce with a soft sales pitch.

HEINRICH VS. WHITE

Time Magazine takes a look at the ABQ US House race and wonders if it is about to turn blue. Dem Martin Heinrich put out an e-mail Monday with the headline, "White Wins by a Hair," as he worked to motivate volunteers in the final stretch. He's still raising money, too. Former northern congressional candidate Don Wiviott is hosting a high-dollar fundraiser at his Santa Fe home for Heinrich. Wiviott, in a bitter primary campaign with Ben Ray Lujan for the northern seat, has mended fences with Lujan. Now the fund-raiser for Heinrich. Is the Santa Fe home builder looking to the future?

White said Monday his race with Heinrich has gotten even tougher in recent days, but he described it as a "dead heat" as he continued to pound the pavement.

TEAGUE VS. TINSLEY

Figures released Monday showed southern NM GOP congressional candidate Ed Tinsley had about $436,000 in cash on hand as of mid-October. We reported insider speculation Monday that Tinsley, who has loaned himself $500,000 for the general election campaign, might be planning to repay himself that money as his campaign has canceled its major TV buys for the last week of the campaign. Meanwhile, Dem Harry Teague reports his total personal loans for the primary and general election campaigns now total $1.8 million. Teague reported about $400,000 cash on hand at mid-month and a $500,000 personal loan in October. Teague is getting TV help from the national Dems while Tinsley is getting very little from the national R's.

Teague has picked up an endorsement in the heart of Republican territory. Alamogordo Mayor Steve Brockett in Otero County said: "...In these challenging economic times, I believe we need a leader who knows what it's like to struggle. I believe it takes a compassionate leader who has a record of helping hardworking New Mexico families achieve their potential. I'm voting for Harry Teague..."

Otero is a bedrock R county, but Teague, an oilman from Hobbs, is expected to cut into Tinsley's winning margin there.

TURNING THEM OUT
Clerk Maggie
County Clerk Maggie reports that in Big Bernalillo about 97,000 votes so far have been cast by early and absentee ballot. There are 381,000 registered voters in the county. We are forecasting turnout of about 75% or 285,000. We think we are on track for a total early vote of about 60% of all votes cast, that's up from 55% in 2006. That would be about 171,000 total early votes. Dems have outvoted R's two to one in the early in-person vote. In the absentee, 20,000 Dems have voted, compared to 15,700 R's. Because of the increased early voting among Dems, we believe Election Day voting, heavily tilted in the past towards the Dems, will be less so this year.

The absentee vote among Democrats, according to several experts consulted, is not underpeforming. The Dems did not get enough of those ballots case here in 2004. The difference this time is that this is a presidential election year, drawing more voters and benefitting the Dems who claim 48% of the registered voters in the state's largest county which now comprises about 33% of the state's total. We have over 1,160,000 registered voters statewide.

ECONOMIC ANGST

Yes, ABQ is in a recession, but you already knew that. Have a government job? Hang on to it.

SHE WANTS IT BAD

Democratic Bernalillo County District Attorney Kari Brandenburg puts $70,000 of her own money into her race as she fights off a stiff Republican challenge from Lisa Torraco. Brandenburg is seeking a third four year term. Lisa has raised over $82,000 total; Kari is over $120,000. The DA's job pays $109,000. Why hasn't Lisa been on TV with that kind of money? Kari is on TV and she is likely to win the race because of it. Even if Lisa comes in the final six days, it may not be enough for a challenger. Lisa e-mails in to say now she is on TV. Her supporters e-mail to say she is on cable-tv. But Brandenburg is on over-the-air- television. 

MICHELLE, NEW MEXICO BELLE?

She won't draw 45,000 like her husband did in ABQ Saturday, but Michelle Obama will cover some important bases in northern New Mexico today when she rallies the faithful at the noon hour in heavily Hispanic and Democratic Las Vegas in San Miguel County. Kerry won the county in '04 with 71.67% to Bush's 27.34%. It was a 5,370 vote margin, but the turnout was not that great. That's a big part of Michelle's job today.

And remember, Michelle. You are in Las Vegas, New Mexico today, not Las Vegas, Nevada. We know you were in the gambling capital Monday and may get confused when you see all the Indian casinos up north today. You may think you are suffering from campaign hallucinations.

You'll be OK here. Just don't read the crazy political news. Well, you're from Chicago. You understand.

For the general election cycle, the Obamas have visited ABQ, Santa Fe, Las Cruces, Espanola and Las Vegas. Initial worries about Hispanic acceptance of a black prez candidate have been replaced by worries that Dems have to protect against overconfidence as polls show Obama carrying NM handily.

RULING ON THE RULES

No news yet on the state GOP rules committee meeting that was supposed to be held to examine whether GOP Vice-Chair Jon Barela should step down from his party post now that he has been appointed a member of the ABQ school board. There are conflicting interpretations on whether Barela can hold both posts. With the election only a week away and the R's suffering, the rules committee may want to delay any decision until after the voting. Barela has been mentioned as a possible future GOP chair, but friends say he is not that hot on the idea. We'll see.

RALLY AFTERMATH

They're still talking about the largest political rally in state history. Reader Debbie Stover was one of those at Johnson Field at the University of New Mexico to see Obama Saturday night:

I have seen no coverage of the "afterglow" of the rally. Thousands poured on to Central Avenue..they walked down the avenue waving signs and stalling traffic. But those in their cars didn't seem to mind, as most were honking and cheering for Obama. I have to tell you Joe, this was a real happening. It was like an impromptu parade, reminiscent of the 60s war protests, but with a completely different vibe. And it did not get the coverage it deserved.

Thanks, Debbie. And, yes. It was the largest political rally in state history and will be officially recorded as such. Nothing even comes close, with broadcast reports from the '96 Clinton rally in Las Cruces at New Mexico State putting the crowd there at an estimated 20,000. That number is now being inflated by some crafty e-mailing Aggies who want to lay claim to the all-time crowd title and give those ABQ Lobos something to hurt over.

NM Democratic Party Chairman Brian Colon, who lays claim to being both an Aggie--he went to undergraduate school at New Mexico State--as well as a Lobo--he is a UNM law school grad---did some independent research to determine the outcome of this all-important battle for bragging rights.

"I spoke with the NMSU regent in charge of coordinating the 1996 Clinton rally. He reports that the "Horseshoe" at NMSU was filled and the crowd estimate was 20,000. He said the high end estimate at the time was 30,000. Therefore, the Obama rally was the largest ever."

Yet another reason for the Aggies to try to extract their revenge when they meet the Lobos on the football field. Hey, maybe they can have the next Lobo-Aggie game at Johnson Field. That way they could try to beat Obama's record set there...

The home of New Mexico politics is with you through the final stretch, providing special coverage. E-mail your news and comments.

(c)NM POLITICS WITH JOE MONAHAN 2008
Not for reproduction without permission of the author

Diane Denish
With each uptick in the polling for Barack Obama the heartbeat of Diane Denish probably ticks a bit faster. She is now on the verge of becoming the 26th person to hold the New Mexican governorship in the modern era, a story that is playing out under the radar as other epic political events sweep the state and await a decision from voters. But the permanent governing class in Santa Fe is already busy, preparing for the likely ascension of the lieutenant governor and anticipating that Big Bill Richardson could join an Obama administration weeks after the election.

The buzz over Richardson's possible departure is growing even louder in the final stretch, with top political sources saying the Governor is likely to be named to any Obama transition team, which will be the first indication of what post Richardson may get and when he would depart. If and when he does resign, the state Constitution says Denish will immediately be sworn in as Governor.

The Denish story may not come as surprise to the politically connected, but according to polling we commissioned recently, many New Mexicans are in for a jolt if they wake up and find Lady Di as Governor. Not that she is unpopular, but to many she remains unknown. Her favorable rating in Bernalillo County, the state's largest, stands at 50.4 percent. However, 30.0% have no opinion of Denish. The poll by Positive Contacts Consulting was taken Oct. 22 among 726 likely voters. Those polled are the most politically involved New Mexicans. Among those who are not likely voters, the number who do not know Denish well enough to have an opinion would very likely spike upwards. The good news for Denish is that only 19.5% of likely voters here have an unfavorable opinion of her.

In Dona Ana, the second largest county, Denish, 59, remains a largely unknown quantity with 44.5% of the 211 likely voters surveyed having no opinion of her. Her favorable rating among those that do know her was at 42.1% and her unfavorable rating was a low 13.2%.

THE DENISH OUTLOOK

Being half-known will have its benefits if Denish becomes the state's #1. If need be, she will have a chance for a makeover as Republicans try to pigeonhole her as a far left tax and spend Democrat. But if Denish takes over, it will be amid the worst financial condition state government has been in since the last energy price crash in the mid-1980's. Even the liberal wing of the Democratic Party is going to be chastened. The fight is likely to be about preserving current programs, not expanding them.

One of the more important decisions Denish will have to undertake is who she will hire to help her run the government. Big Bill has scooped up a lot of the state's top talent to run his cabinet departments. Denish may find she will have to run a transitional government, slowly turning over positions to her loyalists, rather than a sweeping change.

For better or worse, Denish will also be associated with Big Bill's politics, having served under him since 2003. Right now that looks like worse. We've often called Richardson the luckiest of governors, presiding over huge surpluses, but now that he appears headed toward the exits, the party is over. Just in time for him to hand the broom to Diane to clean up the mess from the night before.

While we look on in awe at the transformative election about to be held--a probable Dem sweep of all the congressional seats and an Obama NM and national win--it is natural that the Denish story plays out on deep background. But it is there, a reminder that Election Day 2008 may not conclude this most profound of political years, but only mark its beginning.

OTHER ANGLES

Maybe Richardson would delay any departure from the state, conscious that ducking out in the middle of a money crunch calling for tough stewardship would look bad? Probably not. The spin would be that things are not as bad as they may appear and that the steps he has taken leave the state on solid footing. Also, Richardson is said to be anxious to leave. Another 60 day legislative session--this one the most confrontational yet--is not a prospect he relishes.

WHAT ABOUT A NEW #2?
Balderas & Ortiz y Pino
The Alligators have pegged State Auditor Hector Balderas as Denish's likely pick as lieutenant governor if she were to succeed Bill. But first a constitutional amendment allowing her to pick a light guv must be approved by voters November 4th. It probably will be. But the story doesn't end there. Balderas, elected as state auditor in 2006 after a historic scandal in the state Treasurer's office, may be better off staying put, say some top politicos. With the financial carnage just beginning, why would Balderas give up a safe spot and risk getting involved in what could be a political nightmare? Well, because it might make him governor someday. But maybe not.

The Denish camp finds Balderas appealing because he is from the Spanish North, heart of the Democratic Party and where Denish is not at her strongest. But some politicos speculate that while a Hispanic light guv for Denish is a political necessity, they would not necessarily have to come from the North. For example, ABQ State Senator Jerry Ortiz y Pino, 65, is seen as someone who might get a look for the slot. He would be a gray beard with no ambition for the state's top job. He would help with Hispanics and also help Di keep the liberal wing of the party under control.

Blog readers at the Hillary Clinton rally at Sunland Park in the deep south Saturday noted that Denish rattled off more than just a sentence in Spanish, prompting locals to ask if she is fluent. She has said in the past she is not, but works on it. If she becomes governor, she will be hearing language few others are privy to.

TINSLEY THROWS TOWEL
Ed Tinsley
Why throw good money after bad? That seems to be the decision of GOP southern NM congressional candidate Ed Tinsley who has canceled his TV buy on the major ABQ and El Paso network affiliates for the last week of the campaign. The Gators are gaming it this way: As of mid-October Tinsley, owner of the K-BOB's steak restaurant chain, had about $570,000 in the bank. He bought $50k in TV time, leaving him about $520,000. Tinsley has loaned himself $500,000 for the general election. Now he has half a million in his account, but isn't going to spend it on TV? What's he going to spend it on? How about repaying that loan to himself? And he needs to do it before Election Day because after that, we're told, federal rules state that you can only retire a personal loan of up to $250,000. Speaking of which, Tinsley loaned himself about $230,000 for his primary so he will be able to retire that debt with fund-raising after the election.

All told, Tinsley, who appears headed toward defeat at the hands of Hobbs oil man Harry Teague, stands to recover all of the personal money he put on the line. Now we're not saying Ed is definitely going to do all this, but it not happening seems as likely as seeing fresh fish on the K-Bob's menu.

Tinsley may not have been the best candidate in the world, but he's not a bad businessman. Polling in the district, including some conducted by us in Dona Ana County, basically shows the race out of reach. Tinsley could be accused of being "Quitter Ed" if he makes a stab at political office in the future, but it does not appear Ed Tinsley has a political future in mind. And, yes. We are changing our rating on the southern race from toss-up to lean Democrat.

HEINRICH VS. WHITE

We checked in on the KOAT-TV debate Sunday afternoon between Dem Martin Heinrich and Republican Darren White for the ABQ US House seat. Both candidates continue to cling to their party's boilerplate, giving few, if any signs of independence in what is touted as an independent minded district. They have both campaigned actively and worked up a sweat doing it, but the intellectual exercise for the two newcomers to national politics seems to have been limited to memorizing their party's positions.

White and Heinrich have improved in their public speaking, as you might expect since they are doing it on a daily basis. Still, their TV demeanors need work. White, the Bernalillo County Sheriff, seems too hot for TV, bobbing his head and gesticulating in a way that the camera exaggerates. He seems too caffeinated. As we've written previously, Heinrich, the former city councilor, seems a bit stiff and robotic. He needs to lower his head while looking into the camera, instead of leading with his chin, which makes his eyes seem to close. The state GOP, in an especially cruel mailer, likened Heinrich to a weasel, trying to intimate a physical resemblance to the creature. That was weird. No wonder Martin says he is restricting his two toddlers' campaign media viewing to public TV.

Heinrich's style more closely resembles the historic template for political success here. His low-key, not-to-be-rattled persona recalls that of former ABQ Mayor Harry Kinney, former ABQ GOP Congressman Manuel Lujan and current Dem US Senator Jeff Bingaman. White has that side as well, but being behind in the polls he believes he has to attack harshly which has given Heinrich an advantage by allowing him to play Mr. Laid Back. That's what many ABQ area voters seem to prefer.

LET'S PLAY PRESS

Heinrich has also carried the day in the earned media department, with the Journal failing to rouse itself over White and there being little other mainstream press coverage. That's better for Heinrich because he is ahead. Angela Barranco, a Capitol Hill staffer for Rep. Joseph Crowley, is handling communications for Heinrich. Stephen Schatz, who has worked on the Hill for GOP Rep. Dan Burton, was imported to handle White. Schatz has been shy. We have heard little from him, but we still broke just about every major development in the White campaign in the past year. Well, not only us, but those not-to-be-denied Alligators who just don't seem to pay much attention to candidate news releases or "here today gone tomorrow" press secretaries and campaign managers.

Insiders say White's managers, Sara Lister and Heidi Fuller, are wary of blog coverage, believing we've been too tough on various Republican factions who they've toiled for. Hey ladies, you don't have to worry about us, we've shot this thing down the middle; it's the voters in those polls showing Heinrich winning who are a lot more scary.

REP. ED SANDOVAL TARGETED

Late word that the state Republicans are playing hard in the re-election race of longtime Dem State Representative Ed Sandoval. He was first elected back in '82. Insiders say it appears his R challenger, Ron Toya of Jemez Pueblo, has been in the mailboxes multiple times, hitting Sandoval who is chairman of the House Taxation and Revenue Committee. Sandoval's support of the Rail Runner and Toya's claim that he is unfriendly toward business are key items. We are told it appears at least $50,000 has gone into the race from Toya's end, counting his own campaign money and that of state R's. Why? Apparently the re-elect numbers for Sandoval were low going into the race. The tide is now going Democratic and it appears Sandoval will survive in this ABQ North Valley and West Side district which is 56% Dem and 26% R.

Sandoval, 61, is one of a number of longtime reps who in the past have coasted with easy re-elects. But the times are changing and incumbents of all stripes are coming under scrutiny. If they don't think they have to work anymore, voters notice. Voters rejected State Rep. Dan Silva and State Sen. Shannon Robinson in the Dem primary election. Here's more on Sandoval vs. Toya. Let's keep our eye on the Sandoval race when we get together Election Night on KANW 89.1 FM.

WHERE'S THE JOURNAL?

E-mailers ask where were the candidate endorsements in the state's largest newspaper Sunday? The election is just about over and by this time we usually hear from the ABQ Journal. Maybe they aren't too pleased with the choices they have. By coming with endorsements so late, the candidates are unlikely to be able to use them in their advertising. Maybe that's fine with the Journal. Meantime, a mild surprise up in heavily GOP Farmington where the Daily Times endorsed Obama. This, after they gave the nod to Republican Steve Pearce for US Senate. The state's other large newspapers, the Santa Fe New Mexican and the Las Cruces Sun-News, both endorsed Obama.

CROWD CONTROL

In our first draft Saturday night, we wrote that the Obama rally was the biggest political gathering in state history, but after talking to insiders we switched that to the "largest in ABQ history." They recalled President Clinton's 1996 visit to Las Cruces. One of them claimed that visit attracted upwards of 50,000. But we could not find any archive info on it in the papers or on the Net. But KOB-TV's Valerie Castro reported Sunday that the KOB-TV archives show the Clinton visit drew just 20,000. So that seems to settle it. The Obama visit was indeed the biggest political rally in New Mexico history. And he set another record over the weekend, holding the largest political rally ever in Denver, where 100,000 turned out to see him.

And what about the TV stations saying Obama attracted 35,000 and the AP saying it was 45,000? Turns out the fire marshall gave the 35,000 estimate for those on the field. The AP count included people outside the field perimeter and who could not get in. We told KOB-TV last night a number of those 45,000 were curiosity seekers, but it was still a whale of a crowd and reminded us that not only is Obama an historical figure, but that NM's population has crossed the two million mark.

CROSSING THE LINE?

Did the Obama campaign cross the line when it came to dealing with the lines at their big Saturday night rally at Johnson Field at the University of New Mexico? The question arises because people at the huge event said Obama workers were going down the long line telling those stuck in it that if they agreed to go into the Student Union Building and cast an early vote they would get to the head of the line and also into the VIP section which provided a better view of Obama's speech. The campaign can argue the rally was free and they weren't offering anything of value. Obama probably doesn't feel that way. He values his speeches, very much.

DEATH CLAIMS TONY HILLERMAN

Often when someone dies you hear that "everyone knew him and everyone liked him." But in Tony Hillerman's case the cliché is true. Maybe he would roll in his grave hearing that such unimaginative writing was being employed to describe his passing. But probably not. Hillerman, one of America's legendary fiction writers and an astute student and player of our beloved La Politica, served as our academic adviser when we started out covering politics at the NM Daily Lobo at UNM in the early to mid 70's. He never did much criticizing, just a lot of encouraging. Hillerman died Sunday at an ABQ hospital. He was 83.

Hillerman, a native of Oklahoma, was teaching journalism when we knew him best, just after experiencing his first taste of big time literary success with the novel "Dance Hall of the Dead." It would be one of his many best-selling mysteries set on the Navajo reservation. But the Hillerman I knew was rooted in the newspaper world of UPI and the Santa Fe New Mexican where, in the 50's and 60's, he carved out a reputation for excellence and intrepidness. He loved the newspaper game. I think he lived a long life, in part, because he learned the secret of New Mexico. After vowing to stay around, you must learn to laugh at its politics and actually take joy in its utter outlandishness.

There will be much written in the days ahead about this towering figure. The ABQ Journal's Jim Belshaw played poker with Hillerman for decades. We're sure he, along with other notables, will have worthy rembrances. My fellow students and I will fondly remember Hillerman for his guidance in those most tender of years when criticism, if not handled judiciously, can scald and stunt. Again, the clichés come to mind, but as I write of his death this late Sunday evening, they speak the truth:

Tony Hillerman was a great man. His was an important life.

E-mail your news and comments.

(c)NM POLITICS WITH JOE MONAHAN 2008
Not for reproduction without permission of the author

Cheering Obama (Bralley)
Barack Obama hosted the largest political rally in Albuquerque history Saturday night at Johnson Field at the University of New Mexico, attracting a crowd that television stations estimated at 35,000 and the Associated Press put at 45,000. Whatever the number, it was a once-in-a-generation political event and if it had any predicative powers for what what will happen Election Night John McCain is in for a world of hurt. The Obama rally outdrew McCain's rally held earlier in the day at the NM Expo grounds by a margin of 35 to 1. (McCain made a second NM stop in Messilla in the south.) The line to get onto Johnson Field, slowed by security checks, snaked down Redondo Loop from Popejoy Hall across the heart of the University campus and into residential areas. Spectators waited as long as three hours to get into the event. Finally, security relented and with the approach of Obama's speech, allowed everyone onto the field.

Comedian George Lopez loosened the multitude up before Obama came on, joking about the Frontier Restuarant, a 37 year old institution across from UNM, "I've been drunk having breakfast at the Frontier," he said.

Thanks to Mark Bralley, Steve Cabiedes and Eric Lucero, we have local photos for you of the Obama and McCain events.

• McCain spoke to a small crowd of about 1,000 to 1,500 at NM Expo grounds in ABQ Saturday morning. Complete McCain video here.
  
• Obama set for ABQ rally at University of New Mexico Saturday at 9 p.m.
  
• Huge Obama crowd expected. Temperature at 9 p.m. forecast at 56 degrees under clear skies.
• Hillary in Sunland Park, NM Saturday. Report and complete report and video here.
  
• Announced Saturday: Michelle Obama to Las Vegas, NM Tuesday at Noon.

It may have happened before, but we can't recall the two major party candidates for president of the USA both campaigning in our state on the same day in the final stretch. If you are willing to fight the traffic and crowds, you could see both Obama and McCain within hours of each other in ABQ Saturday. We imagine a lot of New Mexico parents and grandparents will take a deep breath and maybe a Valium as they gather the little ones and take them out to be a part of history. The photos a nine or ten year old will get Saturday will be memories of a lifetime. Imagine them taking those pictures out of an old dresser drawer in the year 2070 and reliving from 2008 that special day in their personal life as well as the life of the state and nation. Is it hyperbole to say that this election will influence what America will be in 2070?

Obama logistics. Stuff you need to know if you are planning on attending the Obama rally. McCain is at the NM Expo grounds where parking and such will not be a big issue.

THE FIRST TIME

The first major presidential nominee I ever saw was a President. It was 1972 and Richard Nixon made a brief stop at the ABQ Sunport. He was opposed by South Dakota Senator George McGovern. Prophetically, several in the large crowd held signs asking, "What about Watergate?" But the scandal that was to bring down Nixon would not unfold until after his successful November reelection.

Of course, watching Air Force One roll in was surreal. Seeing it set against the Sandia Mountains made it even more so. Seeing Henry Kissinger waddle off the plane was another lasting image. Nixon gave his speech just yards away from the most famous plane ever built. That packed more punch than any TV spot I've seen in the intervening 36 years.

In 1972, I also saw McGovern close-up. He came to campaign in ABQ in June and stayed at the ABQ Hilton at University and Menual which had opened a year earlier and where I was working as a busboy. He was ushered into the high-end restaurant of that era where he met with union representatives and others. Word rapidly spread among us working stiffs that McGovern had left either a $10 or $20 tip, an immense sum at the time. The minimum wage then was about $1.60 an hour. The prices and the world have changed much since then, but the indelible impressions left on a youthful mind linger. What a comfortable place to go when cynicism makes a run on idealism.

NOSTALGIA TRIP
Lujan, Cargo & Nixon
Our nostalgia trip got us talking to photog Mark Bralley who supplies us with this photo he took of President Nixon's 1970 ABQ visit. A young Governor Cargo and an even younger first term ABQ GOP Congressman Manuel Lujan accompany Nixon who spoke that day at ABQ's Highland High School. Thirty eight years later Bralley will be taking the picture of the future President, providing us with pics from the McCain and Obama Saturday visits which we'll post over the weekend. Do you think he'll send a few of proud moms and dads with kids on their shoulders enjoying the spectacle? And maybe some cool black and white ones, too?

MORE FROM OUR POLL

The race for US Senate is sputtering to a close. Our exclusive poll of Bernalillo County Tuesday night showed Democrat Tom Udall getting nearly 60% of the vote. He leads the ticket here as well as in Dona Ana County, the state's second most populous, and which we polled Wednesday night. In Bernalillo, it's Dem Udall at 59.4% and Republican Pearce at 35.3%. Just 5.2% of the 729 likely voters polled were undecided. Dona Ana, where Las Cruces is located, the results were almost identical. Again, Udall polled 59.4%; Pearce received 40.7% and 5.2% undecided. 221 likely voters were surveyed. We commissioned Positive Contacts Consulting to do the poll.

Our experts started the campaign projecting a 53% to 47% Udall win based on the initial Dem trend and historic turnout patterns. But that changed with the economic calamity that struck the nation and benefitted Democrats, including Udall. He now seems positioned to take the seat by double-digits, or at least 55% to 45%. One analyst who was spot-on before the economic crisis struck was Tim McGivern, who told us in July that he believed Udall would approach 60% of the vote. We'll know for sure Election Night if he got it right. The MOE for the Bernalillo poll was about 3.6% and 5.9% for Dona Ana. We'll have more polling results next week, including the favorability ratings for ABQ Mayor Marty Chavez, NM Lieutenant Governor Diane Denish and Las Cruces Mayor Ken Miyagishima.

NOW IT'S LEAN DEM

D.C. insiders say the poll we commissioned this week and which showed Democrat Martin Heinrich ahead of R Darren White in Bernalillo County in their race for the ABQ congressional seat played a role in the decision of the nonpartisan and influential Cook Political Report to change its rating on the ABQ race from toss-up to lean Democratic. The report said:

Polling shows the Democratic lean of this district finally allowing Heinrich to overtake White. Ads highlighting White’s position as chair of Bush’s 2004 Bernalillo County reelection campaign refer to White as “Bush’s favorite sheriff” and have clearly taken a serious toll on GOP chances of holding this open seat.

Our poll of 772 likely voters conducted by Positive Contacts Consulting showed Heinrich leading White in Bernalillo County 52.20% to 40.63% with 7.16 undecided. MOE is 3.65%. Cook is also calling the Prez race for Obama.

Big Bernalillo makes up over 90% of the congressional district. The outlying areas, like Torrance County, lean R, but if Heinrich wins Bernalillo County by only a few thousand votes, he is likely to take the seat. The political community awaits the most scientific poll of the bunch--the ABQ Journal poll from veteran Brian Sanderoff. We think that one will be released the Sunday before the election and will pick up any final days movement.

STATE SENATE BATTLE

The latest polling in the hottest state Senate race this cycle continues to show Democrat Tim Eichenberg leading incumbent Republican Diane Snyder who is spending over $100,000 to try to get a third four year term to the Roundhouse from the ABQ NE Heights district. Eichenberg is also spending a boat load. Diane is pulling out all the stops, as you can see from the piece of literature posted here (click to enlarge) and which was mailed to her district. It points to a 1975 discrimination case Tim lost when he was Bernalillo County Treasurer.

In a response to the hit, Eichenberg said: "My opponent is on the attack because she is far behind in the polling...She's been reduced to dredging up ancient history--an incident from 33 years ago (Back when Gerald Ford was President). A year after the events described by my opponent, I was re-elected overwhelmingly with 63% of the vote...My commitment to civil rights, human rights and employee rights is total and unwavering....

The southern portion of the district extends down to the San Mateo and Menaul NE area, where my experts say a lot of Reagan Democrats and independent voters live. Obama and Udall are also running ahead in the district.

DEBATING AGAIN

Dem Martin Heinrich and R Darren White went up against each other and the World Series last night. In their second TV face-off, we are told there were no big hits or errors, unlike the game between Tampa Bay and Philly which the Rays won 4 to 2. The AP's Sue Major Holmes gave up her World Series viewing to file this report.

DEATH BY VOTING

John Lennon once famously sang, "I know what it's like to be dead." Do Ed Tinsley and Darren White? They should say joyous Democrats who are circulating a "Death List" of seats they say national Republicans have compiled and that they are writing off. If Ed or Darren, who both made the list, manage to win, will they have risen from the dead? If so, are there spirtual implications? Someone get us a priest.

RAWSON ROILED

It appears State Senator Lee Rawson, the Senate minority whip, is losing ground to his Dem challenger Steve Fischmann in the Las Cruces area district. Polling shows Rawson several points behind, never good for an incumbent. Rawson is now expressing concern about possible voter fraud, a sure sign that he is in deep trouble. In a big Dem trending year, we are now rating the seat lean Dem.

THE INDIAN VOTE

From the Guv's office:

Governor Richardson will travel to Gallup and Farmington Friday to meet with high school students who are using the state’s newly adopted Navajo language textbook and to discuss the importance of native language instruction.

Some Native American dominated precincts in McKinley and San Juan will go for Obama by upwards of 70% or more, but you have to get them out.

ACROSS THE USA

We helped out with USA Today's coverage of the GOTV effort in key swing states like New Mexico. Here's the scoop.

PEARCE VALLEY RALLY

What?? Steve Pearce is serving hot dogs and potato chips at his Saturday "Rally in the Valley!?" When did they stop serving the chicharrones and beef? No wonder the Democrats always carry the ABQ Valley; Republicans aren't feeding them properly.

Not that Dem Tom Udall who leads R Pearce big in the race for the US Senate has not had his missteps in the storied South Valley where politics dates back centuries. Back in 1988, Tom was running for the ABQ US House seat against Republican Steve Schiff for the right to succeed Manuel Lujan Jr. Tom also had a "Rally in the Valley" but he invited the state's most unpopular political figure of the time--Governor Toney Anaya. News of Toney geting on stage and urging a vote for Udall fell like a dud in the ABQ NE Heights. After that Tom could have gone door-to-door with enchilada casseroles and still would not rid himself of Toney's shadow. Schiff won and held the seat until his untimely death in 1998.

I remember calling that Udall-Schiff election like it was yesterday. It was our first year of Election Night coverage on public radio station KANW 89.1 FM. We celebrate our 20th consecutive year of Election Nights on the station November 4th. One of my guest analysts who started with me that night in '88 is still donating his time to the cause. Former NM legislator Lenton Malry, aka, "my cousin," will be back with us for year twenty. Scott Scanland was working with lobbyist Odis Echols in '88 when Odis was our chief political analyst. Scott took over from Odis in the 90's, and will be back again to, as he puts it "play Ed to your Johnny Carson."

To do anything 20 years running is a stroke of serendipity. But I guess if Tom Udall can keep running for political office, we can keep calling elections. Join us Election Night and for our pre-game show Monday, November 3 at 5 p.m.

THE BIRD IS BACK

Back to the US Senate race, the bird is back. That's Polly the Parrot who now rudely ribs Steve Pearce on behalf of Tom Udall. Polly has a speaking part this time around. She sounds as good as some of the stuff we've heard on the floor of the Senate. As we've asked before, can we write in the bird?

Meantime, Pearce is letting the Farmington Daily Times do some of his talking. They've endorsed the GOP contender.

DR. LFC

A reader who describes himself, as "Dr. LFC," (Legislative Finance Committee) writes us from Santa Fe:

"How come no one has come up with the idea of stopping the issuance of rebate checks? Is it because most of the legislators voted for them and still think it's a good idea? It was a lame idea then and it's worse now. It's just like the (Wall Street) bailout. The public needs to know what's going on but no one seems to want to tackle this political issue and get someone to explain how all this stuff evolves behind close doors. That's why our country and state is in such hot water.

Thanks, Dr. LFC. Maybe we should check with "Dr. No." That's the nickname given to Senate Finance Committee Co-Chairman John Arthur Smith and see how he feels about canceling those rebates. (Big Bill also supported them.) But we think John Arthur and the rest of the Legislature are all "Dr. Yeses" when it comes to handing out money to taxpayers before they cast their ballots. All 112 lawmakers are on the ballot this year.

THE BOTTOM LINES

From a reader in the ABQ South Valley:

"Joe, I have news. Turnout at the San Jose cemetery is higher than usual. Even the dead are voting early this year!"

Now that's bloggin'.

I'm Joe Monahan, reporting to you from Albuquerque, NM. E-mail us here.

(c)NM POLITICS WITH JOE MONAHAN 2008
Not for reproduction without permission of the author

McCain & Teague
Why is John McCain still hanging around the Land of Enchantment? An exclusive poll conducted Wednesday night in the state's second most populous county provides one answer. The survey of 229 voters in Dona Ana County conducted for New Mexico Politics with Joe Monahan by Positive Contacts Consulting shows Obama below the magic 50% mark. He was supported by 47.6% of the likely voters there and McCain was backed by 43.2%. Tying or losing the county narrowly is key to McCain's last hope of winning the state. He needs to galvanizie rural and conservative voters in the south and hope Obama does not overpower him in ABQ, Santa Fe and Las Cruces. Dona Ana is home to Las Cruces, but the city's approximately 86,000 residents represent less than half the population of the county which in 2006 was estimated at 193,000.

Obama & Heinrich Lead Poll
Barack Obama is still headed for a healthy win in the state's largest county and Martin Heinrich is well-positioned in his bid to become the first Democrat to ever win the ABQ congressional seat. Those are the findings of a poll commissioned by "New Mexico Politics with Joe Monahan" and conducted Tuesday night (Oct. 22) by Positive Contacts Consulting.

In the state's most populous county Obama is leading McCain 55.05% to McCain's 37.05% with 7.90% undecided. Graham Bass of Positive Contacts calls the 18 point lead "huge" and that McCain's remaining hope is for a major surge in southern NM.

If Obama were to indeed take the county by the poll's 55%, that would give the Illinois Senator a huge margin here of 29,000 votes. That would position Obama to take a good shot at reaching 53% in the statewide total.

However, history shows the Republican will close. Still, this poll of 772 likely voters by automatic phone calls with a margin of error of 3.65%, confirms the trend of other surveys taken in the county. Republicans are desperately trying to crack the race open, arguing that there is movement, but this poll shows none away from Obama in crucial Bernalillo County, welcome news for the Dems with early votes being cast by the thousands and Election Day 13 days away.

OBAMA TO ALBUQUERQUE

My Alligators confirm that Barack Obama will move to close out his New Mexico '08 campaign effort with a "huge" rally in Albuquerque Saturday night. Tentative plans also call for him to stay overnight. The rally will likely have a Hispanic flavor, a bid to appeal to the key Democratic voting block that appears to be closing ranks behind the first African-American presidential candidate. We are hearing a rally of time of about 9:30 at night, which could put Obama live on the 10 p.m. Saturday news and for sure the front pages of the widely-read Sunday papers. (Our inital report confirmed

Dems hope Obama's rally, combined with an intensive get-out-the-vote effort here, set him up for a blow the doors off win that prevents McCain from making a move, even with a strong rural showing. Obama is also heavily outspending McCain on NM TV, making it even more difficult for McCain to shake up the contest. But he is giving it the college try.

The Arizona Senator's campaign confirms he will be in Mesilla, in southern Dona Ana County on Saturday afternoon. TV news is reporting McCain will also stop in Durango, Co. Friday night. That visit will give him exposure into the Four Corners and conservative San Juan County. McCain's last chance for victory is an unlikely replication of President Bush's 2004 rural strategy in which he landslided places like Lea County with over 79 percent of the vote. Now late word has McCain coming to ABQ Saturday morning before heading to Mesilla as he works to catch Obama here. It's getting wild again around here.

The experts now say the problem is that Obama is running stronger than John Kerry in ABQ, Santa Fe, and Las Cruces. He also appears to be getting a better turnout among northern Hispanics than Kerry, meaning even if McCain matches Bush's southern rural perfomance, he would still lose.

HILLARY IN THE HOUSE

The Obama campaign will send Hillary Clinton to Sunland Park, NM, about a half hour south of Las Cruces, on Saturday. That should help counteract McCain's Messilla visit. Kerry won Dona Ana by a couple of thousand votes in 2004, but Obama may be headed for a bigger win there. We will get an idea exactly how big tomorrow night when "NM Politics with Joe Monahan" in conjunction with Positive Contacts polls the county.

But the big final stretch event promises to be the Saturday night Obama ABQ rally. Even at a late hour, it can be expected to draw thousands and rock the state. It is reminiscent of Bill Clinton's 3 a.m. ABQ stop on Election Morning 1992. That, too, was a year when change was on the political menu and the fervor of the Democratic base was as intense as its ever been. If Obama only equals that enthusiasm, he will be in good stead as the finishing line finally comes into sight.

HEINRICH VS. WHITE

He could be the unlikeliest of winners Election Night. Democrat Martin Heinrich was not given much of a chance in the early analysis of his race against Republican Darren White for the ABQ congressional seat. But that's all changed. And how. First the ABQ Journal poll showed Heinrich ahead by two points. Now our poll shows Heinrich with a significant advantage and a good chance of becoming the first Dem congressman from the ABQ district.

In Bernalillo County, which makes up well over 90% of the ABQ House district, Heinrich leads White 52.20% to 40.63% and 7.16 undecided. If Heinrich stayed at that 52% level Election Night, our experts project it would translate into a countywide win of about 11,000 votes, more than enough to offset the remaining rural votes in Torrance, Santa Fe, Sandoval and Valencia that are available to White. Even a Bernalilo County win in the area of 6,000 should be enough to seal the deal for the former ABQ city councilor.

The risk is that Obama weakens in Bernalillo County. Heinrich is being pushed along like a cub bear of Obama's. If mama bear falters, so do the cubs. But Obama, as our Tuesday night poll showed, remains solid. His Saturday night visit should make him more so.

White is not finished, but he needs an aggressive close, perhaps something during this week's TV debates to backfire on Heinrich. With the Journal poll showing a Democrat in the lead in late September for the first time in history, plus the fresh findings of our survey of 726 likely voters, the ABQ race can safely be moved from the "toss-up" column to the "lean Dem" category.

WE'RE HERE FOR NEW MEXICO

We thank our advertisers for their financial support which made possible the commissioning of our poll. And we aren't done yet. Thursday we'll have our exclusive poll of Dona Ana County and the hot congressional race in the south, plus the Presidential race there. In the coming days we will also tell you how ABQ Mayor Chavez is doing with voters, as well as Lieutenant Governor Diane Denish.

Exclusive analysis. Exclusive polling. It's why "New Mexico Politics with Joe Monahan" continues to set the standard for political coverage in the southwestern USA. Thanks for being with us now and through the years!

TURNOUT TIME

Could total early voting amount to as much as 70 percent of the total votes cast in Bernalillo County? County Clerk Maggie Toulouse Oliver thinks so. She says 55 percent of the county's vote was cast early and absentee in 2004 and she thinks 70 percent is likely this year. If that happens, Election Day voting ought to be a breeze. More importantly, thousands of votes are being banked while the Dems lead in all the polls. The R's could start to close in the days ahead, but the winning votes may have already been cast. Traditionally, Election Day voting attracts a more Democratic crowd. This time my experts say it could be more balanced because so many more Dems are now voting early.

This new early vote math demonstrates the importance of having campaign momentum going by mid-October. Won't it be fun this year to compare the early and absentee results with the people who cast their vote on the actual Election Day?

HELP BLOG THE DEBATE

Martin Heinrich and Darren White face-off for their first televised debate tonite at 7 p.m. on KOB-TV. We'd like your thoughts for Thursday's blog, so after watching the ABQ congressional candidates, send us an e-mail and let us and your fellow readers know who you thought won and why.

HISPANIC VOTE WATCH

This time from the Los Angeles Times.

SIGN OF THE TIMES

For your edification and amusement we present a llama for Obama, direct from Corrales and the camera of Janet Blair...

ELECTION NIGHT COVERAGE

Make sure to join us on Election Night on KANW 89.1 FM for comprehensive coverage. We'll have the state covered from end to end for our 20th year of consecutive coverage on the public radio station. Top NM lobbyist Scott Scanland will be back as will former Democratic Party chairman and attorney John Wertheim who is an expert on NM congressional races. With the Dems threatening to take two seats they haven't held in decades, his expertise will be especially valuable. GOP State Rep. Larry Larranaga will do another tour with us as well. If you can't catch us on the radio, we'll also stream the program on the KANW Web site. We look forward to being with you once again and will have more details as we get closer.

E-mail your news and comments.

(c)NM POLITICS WITH JOE MONAHAN 2008
Not for reproduction without permission of the author

Wertheim & Rep. Larranaga
John McCain is a man fond of surges and according to veteran New Mexican political analysts it is only the slim possibility of a noteworthy McCain southern surge that stands as the lone obstacle to Barack Obama claiming the state's five electoral votes.

"Going in, the main worry was the Hispanic vote, but support among Hispanics for Obama seems solid to me. He is going to deliver, and therefore take the state," declared former NM Democratic Party chairman ('04-'07) and 1996 ABQ congressional candidate John Wertheim.

Wertheim's take is backed up by the Obama camp. They feel the deal is sealed in the Spanish North and are sending Hillary Clinton south on Saturday. That is on the heels of a Las Cruces visit by VP candidate Joe Biden. Obama himself will make one more stop in NM prior to Election Day. However, that visit could very likely be ABQ, the state's media and population center where the Illinois Senator could put away the race by carrying Bernalillo County by an insurmountable margin of 20,000 or more votes.

State Democrats were pushing a CNN report Monday quoting top McCain officials as saying, "New Mexico and Iowa are gone. They are now off the dream list of the McCain campaign."

But even as that word circulated, the McCain campaign was weighing a Saturday McCain visit to Mesilla, in Dona Ana County in the south, where Joe Biden recently campaigned. They point the plane according to the polls, so the numbers there must be showing some chance of a southern surge for McCain, but he could also be working to save the congressional campaign of Ed Tinsley, who can't afford to get wiped out there. Whatever the case, NM is still a hotbed of presidential campaign activity.

And listen to this: So far, in the early voting at polling stations in big Bernalillo County, Dems have cast 8,266 votes, compared to 2,756 for the R's. That's an early sign that the Obama GOTV machine is on the move and proof of heavy early turnout. Also, 77,153 absentee ballots have been requested here, about 38,000 of them for Democrats, 28,600 for R's and about 10,000 for independents. Clearly, the Dems are on the march. That is a high rate of Dem absentees, about 50%. KUNM-FM radio reporter Jim Williams has a report on the first day of Santa Fe and Bernalillo County early voting.

The poll of polls has Obama leading McCain in NM by 8.4 percent. Such a win would represent a 70,000 vote margin over McCain based on a turnout of 72% of registered voters. Not many are expecting such a margin, with a three to five point win seeming to be the conventional wisdom. We'll keep updating.

Wertheim, an original Hillary man, now an Obama believer, feels only a violent change in the national political climate will now deny Obama in NM. But GOP VP candidate Sarah Palin's Sunday visit which drew over 10,000 in Roswell did momentarily send shivers down Democratic spines. It was the bedrock GOP base saying we are still here and voting and it brought back nightmarish memories for the Dems.

The conservative and rural south was the key to Bush's nearly 6,000 vote victory over Kerry four years ago, but Obama is not ceding territory as Kerry did. Even though there is a real chance for him to blow the doors off in Bernalillo, his insurance policy is to keep McCain from having the south rise again.

CONGRESS PREDICTION

Wertheim, whose wife Biana Ortiz Wertheim works under ABQ Mayor Chavez, has a special interest in and knowledge of the races for Congress. The Santa Fe native told us in a wide-ranging phone session surveying the entire state that this is finally the year the Democrats will break through and take the ABQ seat.

"Darren White has run a very disappointing campaign. Martin (Heinrich) has been very impressive with his fundraising and the national Democrats have done a good job managing his campaign. He has had the sense to play to the favorable climate. I think he will take it by two points or more," predicted the 40 year old attorney, not without a twinge of wistfulness for what could have been for himself those many years ago.

Based on a projected turnout of about 300,000, a two point win would give Dem Heinrich a 6,000 vote margin. It would be the Dems first ever win since the district's creation in 1968, and set off near delirious Election Night celebrating as the state's majority party finally claimed their political Holy Grail.

Dem expert Wertheim did not predict a victory for Democrat Harry Teague in the conservative southern district, but he said he thought Republican Ed Tinsley had not run an effective campaign and that now only historic trends stand between Teague and a seat in the United States Congress.

IN LARRY'S LAIR

We hadn't checked in with Wertheim since he provided analysis for our KANW 89.1 FM primary election coverage. The conversation prompted us to check in with another veteran of La Politica who we trust to have a level head in the frenzied and highly partisan final days of a major campaign. ABQ GOP State Rep. Larry Larranaga confirmed the R's worry over White.

"His campaign has just not clicked and we are concerned. There is still time, but this is a race many of us did not foresee," analyzed the veteran lawmaker, who along with Wertheim will be back on KANW to provided Election Night analysis as we mark out 20th anniversary of calling elections for the public radio station.

Larranaga, a conservative, but with a reputation for bipartisanship, said he is more confident about the fate of the Republican in the most-watched NM state Senate race this cycle. Much of his House district overlaps the Senate district of two term incumbent Diane Snyder. He says there have been several effective hit pieces mailed by Snyder and R's into the district and he thinks it has halted the momentum of Democrat Tim Eichenberg.

"It's true that negative campaigning works, and it seems to be working. I think she can pull it out," opined Larranaga, a retired engineer.

Eichenberg released a poll several weeks ago showing him ahead, and those numbers were confirmed by the Republicans. But Snyder has raised over $80,000 and is fighting for her life. Still, Eichenberg has the help of top Dem operatives. State Senate leader Michael Sanchez has kicked in a $1000 to help. This is a race that won't got away.

HENRICH VS. WHITE

The ABQ congressional race moves front and center this week with two televised debates. The first will be Wednesday night at 7 on KOB-TV and the second will be at 7 p.m. Thursday on KNME-TV. Heinrich and White have rarely been seen together during their nearly year long campaigns, so the appearances are anticipated.

REGIONAL TAX

Will voters in an economic climate like this vote to raise their taxes to finance the Rail Runner commuter train from Belen to Santa Fe? Supporters are concerned. Tax foes are firing. They also not the plunge in pump prices, with gasoline now well below $3 a gallon and perhaps lessening concern over transportation. If the tax fails, the Rail Runner will have to get money from the state and/or federal coffers, both under immense pressure because of the recession.

MISTER ROGERS

We told you about ABQ GOP attorney Pat Rogers rattling the cage again last week over possible voter fraud in NM, even as he and others are under investigation by the US Justice Department for their role in the US attorney scandal here. There is way too much to go into here, but the national liberal Web site Talking Points Memo gives a rundown on Rogers and the R's and their NM vote fraud charges.

We are neutral, but isn't it incumbent on those saying there is fraudulent voting, not just fraudulent registrations, to produce the evidence? The personable Rogers and ABQ GOP State Rep. Justine Fox-Young indicated they had evidence, but now it and they look flimsy.

BAITING BARELA
Jon Barela
Speaking of the R's, the state GOP rules committee has set a meeting for today to talk about whether NM GOP Vice-Chair Jon Barela, a possible candidate to replace Allen Weh as state chairman in January, violated party rules when he competed for a position on the ABQ school board. Some rules members say Barela should step down as vice-chair because other R's applied for the school board post. They say state rules say any time a state party official is in a contested political race with a fellow R, they must step down from their party post. But Barela's supporters say seeking a school board appointment is not equivalent to a partisan political campaign.

Would Barela try to keep his new appointed position on the school board--he must seek election to the nonpartisan position in February--as well as become state chairman of the party? Seems like a stretch, but foes of the GOP faction Barela is aligned with aim to cut him off at the pass. Stay tuned.

LUJAN TV

Northern congressional candidate Ben Ray Lujan finally came with his TV buy as some Dems fret that he should have been on earlier. But Lujan raised less than $400,000 in the July quarter. He is not known as one who enjoys hitting up donors. To give his campaign a boost, we are told the Democratic Congressional Campaign Committee will come with TV money for the final stretch. As a Hispanic, the Obama campaign is hoping Lujan will drive more Hispanics to the polls, but he has to excite the base to do it. The TV buy should help. Lujan has to worry about a Dem primary challenge in 2010 if he doesn't come in with an impressive victory in the heavy Dem district. His challengers this year are independent Carol Miller and Republican Dan East. Neither have announced TV buys.

Lujan's first spot hits generically popular Dem issues--alternative energy, health care and ending the Iraq war. He is also back on his horse as he was in the primary in a nod to the rural nature of the district.

THE BOTTOM LINES

More Jerome Block, Jr. problems? This is a candidate who would give aspirin a headache, not to mention state Democrats who are going to have their hands full if Block wins the northern Public Regulation Commission seat...Also from the north, comes word that 92 year old Dem political legend Emilio Naranajo is hospitalized...

The video from our recent interview with the PBS NewsHour and Judy Woodruff has now been posted. The program spent a week in the state examining our politics...And here's the League of Women Voters Guide, worth checking out before heading to the polls...Our Web site address is: www.joemonahan.com. Please pass it on to those who might find it of interest.

This is the home of New Mexico politics. E-mail your news and comments.

(c)NM POLITICS WITH JOE MONAHAN 2008
Not for reproduction without permission of the author

Tinsley & Teague
Ed Tinsley worked to rough up Harry Teague Sunday, hoping to save the R's from Election Night ignominy as the other two congressional seats are now leaning Dem and Obama threatens a significant New Mexico victory. Time and again Tinsley pounded his southern congressional foe, using wedge issues like gun control and abortion to try to drive Teague to the left. It was a turnaround performance for Tinsley, who had pronounced himself satisfied with his first debate performance in Las Cruces, but which was criticized by analysts who felt both Teague and Tinsley were more like planted pots than Congress candidates. Teague was also much improved over the dreary Cruces affair, but it was Tinsley who was more animated and relentless.

Sunday's one hour square-off on KOAT-TV came at 4 in the afternoon, and that was good news for Teague. For while his down-home personality (don't undrestimate it) helped him withstand some of Tinsley's more withering attacks, it is not necessarily a confrontation that the Dems want widely advertised in the sprawling conservative district. Tinsley, an attorney, restaurant chain owner and former head of the National Restaurant Association, demonstrated his bona fides in the articulation and knowledge departments. Teague landed some punches of his own, but was not as aggressive in pushing back as Tinsley who is behind in the polls and was going for the knock-out punch.

Tinsley appears to be getting outspent by Teague who is benefiting from a big Dem trend and his strength in traditionally R voting Lea County. Polling there shows Teague, a former county commissioner, tied with Tinsley. The debate was barely seen in the district's most populous county, Dona Ana, which is dominated by El Paso TV. Polling in Dona Ana shows Obama leading big and Teague taking Tinsley down.

R's have not ben overjoyed with Tinsley's campaign. By contrast, Teague, after turning over his staff, has gotten his campaign on track and running smoothly. Bush's unpopularity is not as pronounced in the south, which has kept Tinsley in the contest. Sunday Tinsley turned it up a notch, but whether it will make a difference in the final outcome is not as evident as his improved performance.

THE NORTHERN DEBATE
Lujan
Frontrunner Ben Ray Lujan turned in a more than serviceable performance during KOAT-TV's 6 p.m. Sunday debate featuring the three northern US House contenders. It should be enough to put to rest the caricature of him as young and dumb. Lujan prepared for the face-off and it showed. Independent Carol Miller and Republican Dan East also had good nights, but the onus was on the 36 year old Lujan and he rose to the occasion. Lujan, son of the NM House Speaker, has generated his fair share of jealousy from rivals who say he is where he is only because of his powerful dad. Fairly or not, more is expected from him.

Remember the brutal Dem primary where Lujan's personal life became an issue? Has any other top tier NM candidate been hit as hard as this young man? Not by a mile. If his daddy was supposed to protect him, it got lost on us. We can only hope that when he gets to the United States Congress he can throw a punch as well as he takes one. With a class of three House freshmen and a newbie Senator to boot, we're going to need it.

OVERSIGHT ANYONE?

Can NM House Speaker Ben Lujan and House Appropriations Chair Kiki Saavedra take a clear-eyed look at the University of New Mexico and exercise some oversight as the state faces a financial crisis? It may be a key question in the 60 day session of the Legislature starting in January. The state surplus has vanished and the Guv has ordered a hiring freeze and other cutbacks as the long energy bull market crashes down. But at UNM, President David Schmidly, seemingly oblivious to the changing tenor of the times, awards his son a $94,000 job that appears to be made up out of thin air. Schmidly is pushing the envelope. Schmidly's son said Sunday he will NOT take the job.

Lujan, Saavedra and Senate leaders who have been cozy with UNM this past decade can take credit for helping the university, but they may start feeling the heat as cash grows short and the afflicted start calling for equal treatment. The Legislative leadership has conducted little oversight over the millions they have sent to UNM. Schmidly is giving them reason to. Lujan, Saavedra, et al. decided to keep power in Santa Fe well into their 70's. But if they are seen playing favorites during this financial crisis, their final years may be their most uncomfortable years.

UNDER THE ROCKS

Meanwhile, the Journal reports David Harris, who served temporarily as UNM Prez and is now an executive vice president there, has been questioned by the FBI about a bond deal that was approved when he was executive director of the NM Finance Authority. The longtime state politico had no comment. The deal involves a major contributor to one of Big Bill's PAC's. It's a story that is getting a lot of attention on the chattering circuit.

Second terms is when the creepy crawly stuff starts coming out from under the rocks. Big Bill raised so much money from so many sources during his gubernatorial career that there are bound to be issues. We are seeing one of them splashed across the front pages. Is Barack reading it?

DARREN BUSH, OR NOT?

Deep in the Sunday ABQ Journal profile on ABQ GOP congressional hopeful Darren White the Bernalillo County sheriff is asked what grade he would give President Bush. "White with some hesitancy said he would give the President "D." How about that? White, who has been loaded up with more Bush baggage than Paris Hilton on the Rivera, finally made a public comment that separated himself from the unpopular Prez. He chaired Bush's 2004 Bernalillo County campaign and Bush had a big fund-raiser for the sheriff earlier this year. The sheriff is a creature of the Mickey Barnett, Karl Rove, Pat Rogers and Pete Domenici/Steve Bell wing of the party which has held power for so long. But not much longer.

White has seemed torn by loyalty to those who created and financed him and a realization that he is going nowhere with Bush blocking his way. His hesitant and low-profile separation from the Prez may be his way of trying to have it both ways. It's hard to fault a political creature for being political, but his positioning seems more in tune with a future run for a Republican primary than it is for winning the independent ABQ congressional seat.

TV TALK

Dems in D.C. are saying that national R's have pulled more of their ad buy for White in the final week of the campaign. Earlier, they withdrew $500,000 from White and used it to protect incumbent House members who are threatened by the Dem tide. White did pick up $244,000 from a state party committee to help finance his final TV days.

MORE ABQ CD

The Journal spent little time in their profiles on the brouhaha over Heinrich's status as a "lobbyist" or "advocate" when the former city councilor did enviro work, or on his oversight in not registering his small consulting business. We haven't either, seeing the issues as a tempest in a teapot. Both Heinrich and White get high grades for integrity. Both have made minor errors along the way, but both are working class family men.

The redeeming attribute that White and Heinrich share in this moment in time is that they are not from the rarefied world of the very wealthy, when it has been the abuse of wealth that has created the economic calamity we are dealing with. We need some overseers who see things from the ground level. Both of these men do.

PEARCE VS. UDALL

Our US Senate race as seen through the eyes of NPR with our two cents worth as well. And, the Las Cruces Sun-News says, sorry, Steve. This time it's Tom. But they didn't say anything about Governor in 2010. What do you think, Steve?

The Senate hopefuls had their second TV debate Saturday night. Video posted at KRQE-TV.

PEGGY AND SARAH
Peggy Noonan
Attention young lefties and righties. It's OK to disagree with your crowd on occasion. The best do, and some of the best stuff this cycle is coming from conservative Peggy Noonan. Her latest is on Sarah Palin. Writes Noonan: "She is a person of great ambition, but the question remains: What is the purpose of the ambition? She wants to rise, but what for?"

Peggy is nailing this election with just the right tone. Kinda like Dean and Ella doing Gershwin.

Meantime, Palin set down a couple of hours late in Roswell Sunday afternoon. Here's a photo gallery of her NM visit. The NM AP's Tim Korte says there was a crowd of 10,000. Hank Williams, Jr. was also on hand to rally the GOP base. He sang the national anthem and a ditty bashing the "liberal media." Here's Korte's report. What's that? You want complete video, too? Here you go. How about Pete Domenici, back on the stump for a final time after 42 years? The Old Man can still fire them up. Hank, Jr, Pete and Sarah on a Sunday afternoon in Roswell. Oh, man. Are we having any fun yet?

JOE THE PLUMBER....

Santa Fe style with artistic gadfly Jim Terr.

HILLARY TO THE SOUTH

She's already done Espanola for the Obama campaign. Now they're sending Hillary south in search of votes. The campaign says: "On Saturday, October 25, Hillary Clinton will host a Change We Need rally in Southern New Mexico." No city selected yet, but Clinton outscored Obama in rural NM and took a narrow Feb. prez primary caucus win. Of the three congressional districts Obama is the weakest in the south. Also, don't forget that congressional seat. The better the Dems can do at the top of the ticket, the better for Dem Harry Teague to garner a historic US House win.

LET'S DRINK TO THAT

A 45 year old ABQ woman apparently could not bring herself to vote for the motley crew of politicos on the 2008 New Mexico ballot without first altering her state of consciousness. She took a bottle of vodka with her to an early ABQ voting location, cast her ballot and then passed out in front of the voting station. Back in the day, the politicos around here gathered the drunks off the bar stools and took them to the polls. They were easyy to spot. They were the only ones smiling as they waded through the ballot.

There are good reasons voters this year could use a stiff shot before exercising their civic duty. They include the federal corruption conviction of former State Senator Many Aragon; the political hiring of former Secretary of State Rebecca Vigil-Giron in a fake labor job while the state cuts millions from the budget; the hiring of the son of the President of the University of New Mexico into a made-up $94,000 a year job; a candidate for the Public Regulation Commission who pays off a county clerk in charge of the voting; a senior US Senator and a veteran congresswoman being investigated by a special Justice Department prosecutor for trying to politicize the US attorney's office; the submission of over 1,400 apparently fraudulent voter registration forms to the Bernalillo County clerk's office...

Well, we could go on, but suffice it to say if the county clerks start passing out miniature vodka bottles to entice Mr. and Mrs. New Mexico to cast their ballots, you can understand if we look the other way. By the way, the drunk lady's ballot will be counted. Now, if we only a had a copy of it to help us make up our mind....Viva La Politica!

Perspective, context, analysis and a bunch of fun. This is the place to be in the final stretch of Campaign '08. E-mail your news and comments.

(c)NM POLITICS WITH JOE MONAHAN 2008
Not for reproduction without permission of the author

• Joe Biden campaigned in southern NM Friday. He draws 2,000 in Mesilla. Video.
  

Crashing oil and and natural gas prices are blowing a hole in the New Mexico budget, delivering the first serious downside economic news since Big Bill assumed the governorship in 2003. Santa Fe insiders tell us the state will report next week that hundreds of millions of dollars of royalty revenue has vanished in the energy price decline.

"The Legislature now faces critical choices. They can decide to start spending the state's reserves--some $600 to $650 million---cut spending, or raise taxes," explained one in the know bean counter.

The most likely road taken will be to raid the reserve. Some of that money is tied up in hard to get at investments. But late Friday Governor Richardson moved to get ahead of the curve. He announced: "...An aggressive effort to identify $200-$300 million in stalled capital projects. The Governor will work with the Legislature to cut those stalled projects and shore up state revenue without raising taxes, tapping cash reserves or cutting services to New Mexicans."

It could be a pretty clever maneuver. If lawmakers protest and try to protect stalled pork projects, they could look irresponsible, just days before they stand for re-election. All 112 legislators are on the ballot in November. In addition, there is Ricrahrdson's concern over Obama carrying the state. Not acting on the fiscal crisis could raise doubts in voters' minds about the resolve of Democrats who are poised for gains here.

Richardson also announced that he would "immediately freeze certain spending and reduce operating expenses by 5-percent, saving $114 million." That's what state Senate leaders have been urging him to do.

Richardson confirmed the drastic shortfall in state revenues: "...Revenue for the ongoing 2009 budget year will be about $344 million lower than previous estimates.." The Governor also announced a hiring freeze effective November 15th.

How much further projected revenues could fall is anyone's guess. Follow the price of oil and natural gas. That will tell the tale.

We've often talked about how we have not seen Bill Richardson under financial pressure as governor, and even with a looming financial crisis, we still might not see much. If Obama is elected president and gives Richardson a job, the faltering economy and the hard choices in the state budget would fall to new Governor Diane Denish.

Financial tremblors are also being felt at ABQ's City Hall where the financial bind is getting tighter by the day. Insiders there now report the deficit for the current fiscal year is on track to reach a stunning $50 million as tax revenue declines in this consumer led recession. Some insiders say a deficit this size simply shows the city has been spending way too much. ABQ Mayor Marty Chavez could face major political fights with the city council if the deficit reaches that amount. The only way to save that kind of money may be to lay off city employees.

All the government money mavens are crossing their fingers that this slowdown reverses soon, but they are not holding their breath.

MORE MONEY

The slowdown has led Bernalillo County to cancel for now a controversial purchase of the old Petroleum Cub building downtown for use as county office space. County Commission Chairman Alan Armijo says the price of the property could decline because of the slow economy. The planned purchase was criticized as being too expensive. The county is taking other measures as well to save money in a falling economy.

By the way, there is chatter that Armijo, who is term-limited at the commission, may seek to get back on the ABQ city council. He is thinking about a run at Councilor Isaac Benton in District Three which is near downtown and includes the historic Barelas neighborhood. Armijo served two terms on the city council in the 90's. Benton is freshman councilor. The city election is under a year away now--in October 2009.

AD WITH A PUNCH

This ad from Dem US Senate candidate Tom Udall is drawing a lot of reaction. Some are calling it the best one they've seen this cycle, delivering a powerful emotional punch. Others say the ad may indeed be emotionally powerful, but can also be spun as an indictment of congressional Democrats for their failure to end the Iraq war. Rep. Udall is not a military veteran but he brings to the table his down the line congressional support for veterans. This ad, in 30 seconds and in a very personal way, makes that support tangible to the regular voter. Very interesting stuff. Here it is.....



CONGRESS CASH WRAP

Here's the wrap on all the cash for the congressional races for the September quarter. Harry Teague and Ed Tinsley, vying for the southern seat, each loaned himself $500,000. In ABQ, Dem Martin Heinrich raised $728,000. Didn't his campaign's news release the other day say it was $750,000? Did they lose $22,000 somewhere? Anyway, Heinrich out raised Republican Darren White who took in $554,000 in the quarter. White had more cash on hand than Heinrich Sept. 30. The sheriff reported $678,000 on hand and Heinrich had $327,000. White should be able to hold his own on TV spending in the final days, even though the national R's pulled a $500,000 ad buy they had planned. Heinrich is getting big support from national Dems and big labor, more than making up for White's cash advantage.

In the contest for New Mexico’s open US Senate seat, Rep. Tom Udall (D), out raised Rep. Steve Pearce (R) $1.8 million to $1.3 million.

SMOKING GUN?
Rep. Fox-Young
Mixed feelings on the state GOP charges leveled this week that they have finally found actual votes cast in New Mexico that were fraudulent--not just fraudulent voter registration cards. They say they have sent their evidence to local law authorities.

The R's had a news conference led by ABQ GOP State Rep. Justine Fox-Young where she said alleged illegal votes may have been cast in the June Democratic primary, singling out 28 votes in the district of Rep. Dan Silva who was defeated. Why did it take the R's until the middle of the general election campaign to come forward with their "news?" Well, that's the political part. But if there is any evidence of voter fraud, we welcome the proof as Republican attorney Pat Rogers and others have been yelling fire in the theater over this issue for years, but have yet, to our knowledge, shown any illegal votes cast. Dems argue it is really about voter suppression.

Meanwhile, Fox-Young, 29, is expected to win a third, two year term to the NM House in November. The daughter of the late well-known NM lobbyist Charlie Young has allied herself with the current hierarchy of the state GOP, but observers say if she could demonstrate some independence, she could be a potential GOP congressional candidate for the moderate ABQ seat in 2010.

ED MAY MISS SARAH

We thought that the Sunday Roswell visit of GOP VP nominee would be a good opportunity for Southern GOP congressional candidate Ed Tinsley to rally the GOP base vote, but Tinsley has a live debate on KOAT-TV with Dem Harry Teague at 4 p.m. Sunday. Palin is scheduled for 2:30 in Roswell. That is going to make some tight scheduling for Ed. It doesn't look as though GOP US Senate candidate Steve Pearce will see Palin. He has fund-raisers scheduled in ABQ.

We mentioned this hard-hitting attack on Bush and Darren White by Martin Heinrich a day or so ago. We now have the video. We'll check out more action from the two next week.

The stakes are now as high as they get for these two political warriors. It's hard to see the loser of the contest having much of a political future --at least for a couple of cycles. All the more reason Heinrich and White are going to finish rough in the final weeks. It ain't pretty, but the day it stops getting rough for the right to sit in the United States Congress is the day you really have to worry.

MANNY FALLOUT

The readers chime in on the downfall of former Democratic State Senator Manny Aragon and several others, who entered guilty pleas this week to federal corruption charges. Aragon could face over five years in prison.

All those who copped a plea are now admitted felons and ineligible to vote. Imagine. One of the most powerful politicians in the history of New Mexico can no longer even vote!

Another reader remembers the controversy that broke out when it was revealed that Aragon, while a Senate leader, had a big consulting contract with the private prison company Wackenhut.

Will Manny serve time in a Wackenhut Prison?

THE BOTTOM LINES

Dr. Patrick Hudson of ABQ blogs in with this rib-tickler making the rounds.

If you had purchased $1,000 of Delta Air Lines stock one year ago, you would have $49 left. With AIG, you would have less than $15 left. With Fannie Mae, you would have $2.50 left of the original $1,000. But, if you had purchased $1,000 worth of beer one year ago, drunk all of the beer, then turned in the cans for the aluminum recycling REFUND, you would have $214 cash. Based on the above, the best current investment advice is to drink heavily and recycle....It's called the 401-Keg....

E-mail your news and comments.

(c)NM POLITICS WITH JOE MONAHAN 2008
Not for reproduction without permission of the author

At last night's US Senate debate Steve Pearce was like a guy who won a contest where you get to pack your grocery cart with anything you want--but you only have five minutes to do it. An unleashed and adrenalized Pearce unloaded on Democrat Tom Udall everything he stripped from the shelves. When the shopping spree was over, the Hobbs oilman had firmed up his conservative base, but did not appear to loosen Udall's grip on crucial middle of the road voters who will decide the contest.

• FORMER SENATE LEADER MANNY ARAGON CUTS DEAL IN COURTHOUSE CORRUPTION CASE

Dems Triple Play Team?
What's changing more quickly in New Mexico? The odds that Democrats will sweep the state's three congressional seats, or the price boards outside of your neighborhood gas station? We'd say it's a tie, with the odds on the Democratic sweep coming down as fast as the price of a gallon of petrol. What in the beginning of the year was seen as the longest of long shots is now within grasp. One of our sports minded Alligators now puts the odds at the elusive Dem Triple Play as an even money proposition. If it happens, no one will be happier than Big Bill Richardson. It would be a political legacy reaching into the next generation and give the Governor entree into the halls of congressional power for years to come.

With that as a backdrop, it's no wonder the Guv is hosting all three Dem congressional contenders at an October 19th high-dollar fund-raiser at El Pinto restaurant in Albuquerque. Prices range from $750 to $6,000. The way the polls are going it could be a pre-Election celebration and the political community's first look at the state's future US House delegation.

Richardson's tentacles extend deep into each campaign. Northern Dem hopeful Ben Ray Lujan owes his slot on the Public Regulation Commission, in part, to Richardson who endorsed Lujan, son of powerful state House Speaker Ben Lujan and a close ally of Bill's. In Albuquerque, Dem Martin Heinrich was hired by Bill to be the state's natural resources trustee. Also, Bill's operatives let it be known well before the June Dem primary that Bill favored Heinrich, although there was some back and forth over that. Southern Dem hopeful Harry Teague has been a private air force for the Guv. Along with Hobbs businessman Johnny Cope, Teague co-owns two aircraft that Richardson's campaign paid to use during Bill's bid for the Democratic presidential nomination. And guess who is co-hosting what we're calling the Oct. 19 Triple Play Party? Why, Johnny Cope, of course. Throw in longtime Friend of Bill Paul Blanchard and you've got a bash that is not going to run out of party favors.

A WHITE ELEPHANT?
White
Eyebrows are being raised in some Republican quarters over the state party's purchase of expensive TV time for ABQ GOP congressional hopeful Darren White, even as the national R's pulled the plug on $500,000 worth of time for the Bernalillo County Sheriff. We've learned the federal finance committee of the state party has bought $240,000 of time for the most recent hit on Heinrich. But some R's say the money should have been allocated among all the NM GOP federal candidates. Top R's speculate that the $240,000 money was donated to the R's with White specifically in mind because he lost the $500,000 in national money.

Money raised for the party's federal accounts can pay for activities related to congressional and presidential campaigns.

Despite the $240,000 buy, extensive conversations with TV insiders and operatives in Washington inform us that White is still being significantly outspent on ABQ TV by Heinrich. But even if he wasn't, the Dem tide is so strong that Heinrich would probably still be leading. Look at Dem US Senate candidate Tom Udall. The media mavens say he appears to be only matching what Steve Pearce, his GOP foe, is putting up on the air. Udall could finish the campaign with an ample cash balance.

HEINRICH UPGRADED

Tuesday in Washington veteran political handicapper Stu Rothenberg switched his rating of the ABQ race from "toss-up" to "toss-up/tilt Democratic." Rothenberg retains his "toss-up" ranking on the southern congressional battle between Dem Harry Teague and Republican Ed Tinsley. Our Monday blog revealed the daunting math White and the R's face in this Dem trending year. We don't disagree with Stu's ranking.

NO EASY MONEY FOR ED

There was some speculation here that when the national R's canceled their TV buy for White that they just might shovel some of it Ed Tinsley's way. After all, the southern GOP Congress hopeful is locked in a toss-up battle with Dem Harry Teague. But a check with TV insiders shows that is not happening. The Politico reports the national R's are putting the money meant for the White race into races where incumbent House R's are running into trouble because of the strong Dem trend.

White continues to raise money for late TV. US House Minority Leader John Boehner will host a fund-raiser for the sheriff October 21 at the home of veteran R Ken Zangara. Senator Domenici, who has already done several events for White, will do another one. The R's have a habit of closing strongly. They need an especially strong close this cycle.

BIDEN VISIT

It will be historic Mesilla just south of Las Cruces for Dem VP nominee Joe Biden's Friday visit, and it makes a lot of sense for Obama. Kerry won Dona Ana County by only around 2,200 votes in '04. Obama and Biden should be able to easily double that and perhaps triple it. We suspect southern Dem hopeful Harry Teague will want to be sticking close to Joe. If Harry can stay close behind Obama Election Night and win handily in the county over R Ed Tinsley, he will likely be the first Dem southern congressman elected since Harold Runnels in 1980.

BARACK COMING BACK?

Will Obama be back to NM? After all, he has a good lead here. We expect him back at least one more time to get the vote out. That's not as many times as we all first thought, but that's before the world nearly came to an end and the presidential race was broken wide open.

Amid predictable and frantic October spin on the ABQ congressional race, it's time for a reminder that it is not that complicated. Bernalillo County makes up over 90 percent of the ABQ area congressional district. If Democrat Martin Heinrich carries the county by as little as 51 to 49 percent, he will be positioned to be the next congressman. If he ties or loses the county, he will very likely lose to Republican Darren White.

Registration for the district is about 407,000. Assume 90 percent of the vote comes from big Bernalillo and that 70 percent of registered voters cast ballots. If Heinrich were to get 51% of the projected 256,410 votes in Bernalillo County, he would come in with 130,769 to White's 125,641. That's a win of 5,128 votes. If White scored a big 57% win over Heinrich in the areas outside of ABQ, he would pick up about 3,988 votes, based on 28,5000 votes cast there. That would give Heinrich a districtwide win of about 1,140, and that's with a very narrow Bernalillo County victory.

The problem for the R's is the Bernalillo County strength of Dem Senate nominee Tom Udall and Prez contender Obama. If Udall takes 57 percent in Bernalillo County--a realistic possibility--he could beat Pearce by a stunning 40,000 votes. If Obama wins the county with 54 percent, he would take home a 23,000 vote victory. That leaves Heinrich. Does he lose all those Obama votes and end up tying or losing the county against a non-incumbent like White? These numbers explain why for the first time in the history of an ABQ Journal poll the Democrat is ahead in the 1st CD in late September--43 to 41. Two other independent polls also show the sheriff running behind.

Set aside that cancellation of $500,000 in national Republican TV time for White. Even if he had that money, his task remains formidable in a year when the Rio Grande is running deep blue and Pete Domenici's name is not on the ballot. And that is direct from the no-spin zone.

THE CAMPAIGN

White is not out of it and has enough money to make his case for now. Some of the national money not materializing is being made up by the state GOP which on Monday came with this ad against Heinrich. How much they are spending on the ad was not released. This spot has more power than the one we showed you Monday in which White goes after former city councilor Heinrich for supporting the extension of a tax to build a street car in his district. Says the new ad:

Martin Heinrich refused to condemn an ad that called our American General (Petreaus) a traitor during a time of war...And Heinrich even promised to block funding for body armor, bullets...for our combat troops unless they're pulled from Iraq..

We'll let the truth squads sort out the veracity of those claims. This latest effort seems aimed at male voters. It might most influence Democratic Hispanic men in ABQ'S South Valley.

While Darren may score with that one, Martin is up with a new and powerful piece (no video yet) that says White is "wrong on Bush" and "wrong for New Mexico." Tying White to Bush has been a winning ticket all year long. Will it stay that way when it counts?

JOE'S JOURNEY

When Joe Biden was nominated as the Dem VP nominee our Alligators (political sources for you new readers) wondered how long it would take before he came to swing state NM. They quickly set the "over-under" at 14 days from the end of the Dem convention. Well, it has taken him over 40 days, but Biden will make it here Friday for a stop in Las Cruces.

Race has not overtly surfaced as an issue in the south, but Dems remain concerned about enthusiasm for an African-American candidate there. Biden could help soothe fence-sitting voters.

How deep will it go? That's the question on the lips of top New Mexico Republicans as they contemplate a possible Obama blowout that they fear could endanger GOP legislators. Population center Bernalillo County is of paramount importance to them. Many voters here treat ticket-splitting as a nearly sacred tradition, but if a landslide develops legislative races previously thought as done deals could be put in play. Straight ticket voting in a year when R's are being treated like they have an infectious disease is what GOP lawmakers dread.

Races now surfacing on the watch lists of top state R's include State Rep. Eric Youngberg who represents northwest ABQ and who has run several close races. Straight ticket voting and heavy Dem turnout could make this year's edition closer for him or even make for an upset.

ABQ North Valley area GOP State Senator John Ryan is seen securing a second four year term, but an Obama power move, not to mention one by Dem US Senate candidate Tom Udall who will out poll Obama, could make Ryan, a lobbyist, nervous as he awaits Election Night results.

ABQ GOP NE Heights State Sen. Diane Snyder is already seen in dire straits in a district she carried with 53% of the vote four years ago. Dem Tim Eichenberg is now considered the favorite by insiders monitoring that contest. Corrales area GOP State Sen. Steve Komadina is another incumbent R now being watched closely. Expert R's think Komadina is positioned to take it, but are telling the two term incumbent to watch his back.

If a Dem trend develops and extends into Rio Rancho, the hopes of the R's to take back the legislative seat held by Tom Swisstack who has given it up to serve as mayor of Rio Rancho may be crushed. The D's have a strong candidate in Sandoval County Commissioner Jack Thomas. The R's have retired educator Paula Papponi, a name that resonates with many NY transplants in the area.

HEADING NORTHEAST
Craig Cosner
Insider Dems are expressing increasing confidence that they will pick up the NE NM state House seat held by Clayton Republican Brian Moore who is retiring. They say NM native and retired Wells Fargo banker Craig Cosner is now heavily favored over Dennis Roch, a former aide to Senator Domenici who is an assistant superintendent at Tucumcari public schools.

Like Roch, Cosner is from Tucumcari. The district is a swinger. It has 47% Dems, 41% R's and 10% independent. The Dems had it before Moore took it over and they think Cosner, with deep ties in the NE region, is well-positioned to take it back.

CRUCES IN THE CROSSHAIRS

Some Dems say they are less worried about Las Cruces State Rep. Jeff Steinborn running into trouble. They say the Democratic trend in Dona Ana County should help freshman Steinborn hold off a challenge from GOP Dona Ana County Commissioner Kent Evans. The district is 48% Dem and 35% R and 16% independent. Another factor: Evans is coming off a loss two years ago for the NM Public Regulation Commission. Also, Steinborn has won the endorsement of the Las Cruces Sun-News.

Dona Ana State Rep. Andy Nunez is always the subject of speculation. The chairman of the House Ag Committee always wins, but narrowly. He has another strong GOP challenger in businessman Mike Tellez, but the Dona Ana Dem trend should help put him over the top for a fifth two year term. He also won the endorsement of the Sun-News, important in these lower ballot races.

TINSLEY TIME

A nice break for southern GOP congressional hopeful Ed Tinsley. He scored the endorsement Sunday of the Las Cruces Sun-News over Democrat Harry Teague in critical Dona Ana County.

"(Teague) has not articulated a clear vision for our district or for how he would address the pressing issues facing our nation. Tinsley better understands Congress and is better prepared for the steep learning curve ahead." Said the newspaper.

Tinsley and Teague are locked in a close race. Dona Ana is the largest county in the sprawling southern district. It is a swing county in congressional races. Tinsley's job is to tie Teague there or keep his margin of victory down by a couple of thousand. The newspaper endorsement can't hurt. But Obama is active on the ground and getting the Cruces area Dem vote aroused. The campaign has opened four offices in Doña Ana County, including in Anthony and Hatch. That will help Harry. Also, Teague is positioned to do well in Lea County in the SE where he served a a Dem county commissioner and which usually votes heavy R. Teague is from Hobbs.

BILL AND BILL

Here's the audio of Big Bill talking about how Bill Clinton still holds a grudge toward him for supporting Obama over Hillary in the Dem prez primary season. Our Bill says he's getting along with Hill. But good enough for her to tell her friends not to thwart Richardson's efforts to get a high-powered job with Obama?

THE PROFESSOR SAYS....

A tax increase in this environment? How about a real little one, like that one-eighth of a cent regional transit tax they are asking Bernalillo, Sandoval, Valencia and Santa Fe County voters to approve? It may not happen, says University of New Mexico political science professor Gabriel Sanchez. Even though the tax would help cover the operating costs of the Belen to Santa Fe Rail Runner, which has proven popular, Sanchez says the economic crash of the past several weeks may have doomed the tax hike. That would mean Big Bill would have to go looking for funding elsewhere to keep the rail going, but where? Washington? Santa Fe? "The Legislature has been generous," Declared Bill. But if projected state revenues continue their precipitous decline, Santa Fe could get as tight as a vise.

PETE FOR STEVE

His dreams were crushed when Steve Pearce beat Heather Wilson for the GOP US Senate nomination, but outgoing Senator Pete Domenici is doing what he has to do to go out as a loyal solider. He cut this TV ad for Pearce which could help Southern Steve pick up moderate GOP votes in the ABQ area. Steve needs a game-changer to turn around his race with Dem Tom Udall, but Domenici's presence on the airwaves could get some more R's to the polls. That would not only help Pearce but John McCain and ABQ congress hopeful Darren White.

CLANG, CLANG, CLANG WENT THE TROLLEY
Darren & Judy
Darren White's campaign for the ABQ US House seat was sent reeling last week with the news that the national R's had slashed their TV ad buy for the Republican sheriff by $500,000, but late Friday White tried to recoup some momentum by coming with a new TV ad. He slams Dem congressional hopeful Martin Heinrich, a former ABQ city councilor, for supporting the extension of a transit tax without voter approval and to use it to pay for an expensive streetcar on Central Ave., or as Darren calls it, "a trolley car." Heinrich and Mayor Chavez were met with a storm of protests over the move and the political hot potato was put on ice.

Heinrich says he had a "blockbuster" fund-raising quarter and will report approximately $750,000 raised from July thru September. His campaign took the opportunity to put the needle in Darren:

In contrast to Heinrich's strong fundraising numbers, it was reported that the National Republican Campaign Committee (NRCC) has cancelled over $500,000 in ads previously reserved on White's behalf..

With the $750,000, Heinrich has now raised about $2 million. As of June 30, White had raised about $953,000. Complete third quarter reports are due Wednesday. Insiders will want to see the cash on hand both camps had going into October.

Both White and Heinrich are getting TV support from third party groups, but now that the R's have pulled the TV plug, Heinrich should have a decided tube advantage. It would seem an open invite for Dems across the country to release the dogs of war on White and bury him in a blizzard of third party ads.

Heinrich is swimming with the tide, but his name ID is still a problem. Saturation and expensive TV is the answer, according to several top consultants weighing in here. The Dems have found novel ways to lose the ABQ seat the past 40 years. Will they find yet another, or finally find their way?

First we post Darren's trolley ad, and in honor of the occasion, we give you Judy Garland and "The Trolley Song." Take it away Darren and Judy....Yeah, now we're bloggin....



Thanks for tuning in. Help us cover the final stretch. E-mail your latest news, photos and comments.

(c)NM POLITICS WITH JOE MONAHAN 2008
Not for reproduction without permission of the author

Heinrich & White
There's a memorable line in the pool hustler movie "The Color of Money" that comes to mind in describing the Thursday events that pelted down on La Politica. As the pool shark played by actor Tom Cruise has the table run on him by another hustler, Cruise is brutally and cockily teased with the line: "It's like a nightmare, isn't it? It just keeps getting worse and worse." You could just hear New Mexico Democrats using that line on their backs-against-the-wall Republican foes. And with good reason.

R's across the state were stung as news spread that the national Republican congressional committee was essentially pulling the plug on ABQ GOP congressional hopeful Darren White; that Meet the Press had canceled this Sunday's NM US Senate debate which Republican Steve Pearce badly needed to get a breakout moment and as the stock market crashed yet again, with the Dow shedding seven percent of its value. It was enough to make a Republican strategist fall off the wagon, and several probably did.

Gloating, kicking your opponent when he's down, illegal choke holds. All of it is allowed in the winner take all game of power politics. ABQ Dem congressional hopeful Martin Heinrich, who might be enjoying success selling vacuum cleaners to lonely housewives if he wasn't running for Congress, is learning to use all of them. It was Heinrich's campaign, with unconcealed relish, that disclosed that the National Republican Congressional Campaign Committee will not put up $500,000 in TV time it had promised Republican White, a possible death knell for the Sheriff, who is already being heavily outspent by Heinrich and his third party allies. That was the knife; here's the stab:

"It's actually kind of sad. After the hundreds of thousands of dollars Darren raised as chairman of George Bush's reelection campaign you'd think his buddy Bush would help bailout his failed campaign."

The NRCC will put up about $232,000 in tube time for Darren starting October 14th rather than $732,000. He is already lagging in the polls, and now this. His campaign could only feebly spin that he would "have the resources" to continue. What resources are those? A state rebate check from Big Bill?

SPIN NEVER DIES

But spin never dies. In White's case the AP came with a report that quoted TV station officials as saying that the NRCC canceled a buy, but they can't say for which candidate. What? There is some other Republican candidate running for Congress in ABQ? What? The money was all meant for Ed Tinsley? What? Do they have a bridge they want to sell us?

He may not have to face the voters again, but for a variety of other reasons Big Bill and his operatives were quick to seize upon the good news offered up by an ABQ Journal poll showing that 61 percent of "likely voters" approve of the job Bill is doing as governor. In dismissing previous out-of-state surveys showing his approval rating considerably lower, a Bill acolyte dubbed the Journal a "real" poll and dismissed the Rasmussen and SurveyUSA numbers that had shown the Guv's public image slipping.

The Journal survey conducted Sept. 29 thru Oct 2 found that 61 percent approved of the Guv's job performance, 26 percent disapproved and 13 percent were undecided. That contrasts with a Rasmussen Survey from early September. At that time we blogged:

"Gov. Richardson earns good or excellent ratings from 45 percent of voters in New Mexico, while 29 percent say he is doing a poor job. Those ratings have slipped slightly since last month."

So what's the deal? How can there be such a large disparity in the approval ratings? It is explained by those who specialize in such things that the Journal poll is picking up truly "likely voters" and the Rasmussen and SurveyUSA polls which showed the Guv's job rating below 60 percent are picking up less likely voters. They say these less likely voters and citizens not registered follow the news less closely and can be more whimsical in assessing the performance of public figures. Likely voters also tend to have higher incomes and higher education levels. The specialists say when you use automatic phone surveys you can't screen out non-voters or unlikely voters as effectively as with in-person telephone interviews which the Journal uses.

If likely voters are all that matters, the Guv's seems to be doing well. Among the public at large, it's fair to say that he remains a generally positively viewed politician, but not overwhelmingly so.

BILL'S JOB

Richardson, serving his second four year term, doesn't have to face NM voters again, so his popularity rating in that regard is irrelevant. But he is on the hunt for a job in the Obama administration and appointing a popular governor to a top job is a lot easier than one who dwells in the ratings cellar. A high rating also gives Big Bill some body armor from those who will be competing with him for those top jobs and perhaps shooting arrows his way.

If the Guv's is still here in January when the 60 day legislative session kicks off, a perception that he remains popular among likely voters could help him with his policy proposals. However, as one lawmaker explained, his rating may not matter much to the Legislature. "After six years, we're tired of dealing with him and he's tired of dealing with us."

CHECK IN THE MAIL

The state rebate checks approved by the Legislature and Governor and based on a projected oil and gas surplus started to get mailed this week, but with oil and gas prices crashing, not a few lawmakers are worried that the state can't afford to give out the money. The Guv says the situation merits watching, but we aren't seeing anyone stopping the money from going out.

NANCY'S HIDEAWAY
Pelosi
The third most powerful government official in the USA was in ABQ Tuesday night, but unless you were at a high-dollar North Valley fund-raiser that US House Speaker Nancy Pelosi attended on behalf of ABQ congressional hopeful Martin Heinrich, no one would know it. For the most part, the media let the visit pass without a mention. The only notice that she was even in town was on your blog where we posted the fund-raising invite leaked to us by the Alligators.

KRQE-TV was one media outlet that did make an effort to get a comment from Nancy. They staked out the debate watch party she was attending with Big Bill, Light Guv Denish, Senator Bingaman and other Dem party heavies. But she was whisked in and out of the home of developer Gary Goodman without a peep.

The station and others asked us what the deal was--why was Nancy hidden away like a pearl in an oyster? As we told KRQE, the main reason was probably because we have two close NM congressional races featuring a lot of undecided conservative Democrats. Martin Heinrich is winning 65 percent of the Dems in the Journal poll in his race against Republican Darren White. The Dems remaining on the fence are of the ABQ conservative variety. They don't especially take to San Francisco liberal Nancy. Double that notion for the southern congressional seat where Dem Harry Teague is neck and neck with Republican Ed Tinsley and who needs solid conservative support to put him over the top. On top of that is the unpopularity of the current Congress and Pelosi--both have cellar-dwelling approval ratings.

White might have been able to squeal some over Pelosi's visit for Heinrich, but his back is against the wall in this race, and criticizing any member of the district's majority party probably carries more risk than its worth. Without the press forcing the issue, the woman who helped engineer the largest economic bailout in history and who help sets the agenda for the USA was able to much on some New Mexico treats, be regaled by the likes of Big Bill and Lady Di and disappear under the cover of night without any inquiring minds disturbing her. Such is the disconnect in these bizarre political times we live in.

EAST'S DIRECTION

A supporter of northern GOP congressional candidate Dan East e-mails in questioning the Journal's poll of the north showing Dem Ben Ray Lujan garnering 41 percent of the vote to East's 18 percent and independent Carol Miller's 14 percent. The margin of error in the poll is the largest ever seen for a Journal survey--8.9 per cent--and had the East backer questioning why.

That is a whopper of an error margin and would kill the credibility of a survey conducted for the ABQ or southern congressional districts, but up north where Dems rule the survey is not in much danger of getting it wrong. Lujan's lead is still outside the large margin of error. However, that begs the question as to why the newspaper simply did not interview more people for the northern survey and also why they decided not to do any polling in the red-hot southern congressional race. The answer is money. Polls are expensive and the newspaper, like other businesses, is feeling the economic pinch. The Journal traditionally does three election polls in the big years, but will only do two this year, with the second and last one expected close to Election Day. The irony is that in the biggest political year in modern state history, polling coverage is shrinking, not growing.

THE BIG NIGHT

Can someone break open the tight southern congressional race tonight? It is the big night for Republican Ed Tinsley and Dem Harry Teague as they take part in a televised debate that will be aired across the state and nation. It kicks off at 7 p.m. and runs an hour. It will air on KRWG-TV in Cruces, and KNME in the ABQ area where it will also air on KANW 89.1 FM. C-SPAN will televise the debate nationally.

Tinsley is sure to try to pigeon hole Harry on his position on gun ownership. That's the only TV ad Ed has up against Harry. It is on that and other cultural issue the Republican hopes the race will turn, but the big issue--the economy--is breaking the Dems and Harry's way and we expect him to drive the point home tonight,.

The debate tonight is part of the New Mexico First series of congressional town halls. They tell us they would like to get more response for its northern congressional town hall next Tuesday at Rio Rancho, so here is the info if you would like to attend. The northern TV debate will take place at 7 p.m.

Northern New Mexico Town Halls, October 14, 1-5 pm; TV forum 7-8 pm Town Hall Hall and Debate: Rio Rancho High School (CD3 candidates: Ben Ray Lujan, Daniel East, Carol Miller)

The TV debate will air next Thursday on KNME-TV at 7 p.m.

LINING THEM UP

Take a look at this from the Obama NM campaign. If these are Obama votes they can get to the polls, it is going to be a pretty big deal.

Barack Obama’s Campaign for Change (CFC) announced that it surpassed its goal of registering 30,000 new voters in 30 days. Statewide, CFC registered more than 35,500 new voters from September 7th to October 7th, the voter registration deadline.

POPULIST PEARCE

GOP US Senate candidate Steve Pearce comes with this new ad touting his opposition to the massive Wall Street bailout. This is a more assertive, louder-voiced Pearce, pushing a populist agenda. The ad faults "greedy corporations" for the economic calamity. Trouble is, his Dem US Senate opponent, Tom Udall, also voted against the bailout. Pearce benefits some but not nearly as much if Udall had been on the opposite side of the fence.

THE BOTTOM LINES

The AP is starting to hit with its candidate profiles. Here's the Martin Heinrich brief and the one of Darren White. It sure seems Darren is getting outspent on the tube by the Heinrich campaign and its third party allies....Sheriff White announced Wednesday the union that represents his deputies has endorsed his candidacy. So has the ABQ Police Officers Association. White is trying to deflect a powerful TV ad from the Heinrich campaign that points out that when White was head of the state department of public safety, the NM State Police Association gave White a vote of no-confidence because they thought White wasn't providing officers with adequate equipment and cars...

Longtime NM lobbyist and attorney Dick Minzner e-mails in on the $700 billon Wall Street bailout. "...The purchase of old loans in the hope this will result in new loans being made seems like indirect trickle-down lending. Would the money not be better used to make new loans...?"

Meantime, will someone at one of the upcoming TV debates ask Martin exactly how he would have voted on the $700 billion bailout? He never has answered. It is probably just an oversight and he is really welcoming the question. You think?

E-mail your news and comments and help us cover Campaign '08.

(c)NM POLITICS WITH JOE MONAHAN 2008
Not for reproduction without permission of the author

Whitney Paul & Martinique Chavez
What will it take to get Obama and McCain to show some passion? Last night's 90 minute presidential debate, held against a backdrop of some of the most startling and serious economic news in a generation, tuned into the unlikeliest of snooze fests. Both candidates delivered their canned scripts with aplomb, but passion, historic knowledge and deep-seated convictions about getting us out of the mess were not the order of the night. Abe Lincoln or even Bill Clinton, they are not, but they're all we got. Look on the bright side, neither McCain or Obama will jump out a White House window because of the stress of world events. These guys could sleep through a Rolling Stones concert.

While Wall Street burned, the candidates did not exactly fiddle, but neither did they inspire the confidence the nation so desperately needs. We watched the debate at a "smart party" hosted by ABQ Dem Margaret Aragon who invited a group of undecided voters to her North Valley home to talk about what they had just seen. None were jumping for joy for either candidate at the end of the monochromatic affair.

The evening did cause our cynicism to be mothballed momentarily as we spoke with two 18 year olds--Whitney Paul and Martinique Chavez--who this November will be voting for the first time. The economic crisis hasn't just rattled the IRA and 401K crowd. The newest generation of adults is worrying about more than what to put on their iPods.

"I'm scared about the economy. Will I be able to pay for graduate school?" said Paul of the La Cueva High School Class of 2009. Fortunately, she'll be able to get a lottery scholarship to start on her undergraduate degree at the University of New Mexico, but today's kids have been taught to plan and look ahead. Right now they might prefer to bury their heads in sand.

And Martinique Chavez, a UNM poly sci major with law school plans, may represent 18 year old women across the nation who are suddenly forced to worry about matters usually deferred until they're at least old enough to party down at a Vegas nightclub. "When I have a family, will I be able to afford the things my children need? The economic news--the stock market--is scary. What is the future?" She wondered after watching the two would-be presidents.

It doesn't get more real than that, but the candidates, while verbally agile and well-informed, did not seem moved by the challenges that await them. They seemed more like skilled mechanics pondering a faulty cylinder, or those synthetic news anchors who read story after story with the same drone of mock concern. My analysts summed it up:

"The debate was the equivalent of a warm bucket of spit," analyzed veteran Dem Mike Santullo. "I can't say it was anything that he said that won the debate for Obama. It was more that he sounded presidential," chimed in analyst and pollster Harry Pavlides.

Looking the part is the first step; acting it is the second. The third part is the toughest--doing it. America can now only hope that somewhere within Barack Obama or John McCain the makings of a Lincoln or an FDR lie dormant, ready to be aroused on Inauguration Day.

SOUTHERN CAL MEETS NORTH VALLEY
Margaret Chavez
LA Times reporter Seema Metha also hung with us at Margaret's debate party last night. She put this story together on her laptop perched on the kitchen counter. Aspiring journalists, here are some money lines to show you how it's nailed:

The gathering was spawned by Aragon de Chavez, the ex-wife of the city's three-term mayor, Martin Chavez. During their 17-year marriage, Aragon de Chavez grew accustomed to running in political circles and meeting candidates at fancy fundraisers. After their divorce in 2003, she felt disenfranchised.

In her former life, Aragon de Chavez on Tuesday would have attended an up-to-$12,300-per-person fundraiser/debate-watching party across town that featured Speaker of the House Nancy Pelosi, New Mexico Gov. Bill Richardson and her husband. "It's humbling not to be the wife of the mayor," said the 49-year-old single mother of two, who said politicians pay little attention to ordinary voters.

BEN RAY'S STANDING
Ben Ray
Northern Dem congressional hopeful Ben Ray Lujan could be up a lot more in the ABQ Journal poll if he had started his TV advertising early, so why didn't he? A couple of reasons. Lujan, 36, is considered a shoo-in to take the heavy Dem district. Early advertising would not change that expectation. Also, money is an issue with the slew of races gobbling up any loose dollars that can be found. Insiders estimate Lujan, son of NM House Speaker Ben Lujan, has raised about $400,000 since the June primary. A decent TV buy costs at least $100,000 a week. Lujan, who polled at 41 percent in the Journal poll conducted last week, can be expected to be up on the air the final two weeks.

Rio Rancho contractor Dan East polls at 18 per cent and independent Carol Miller at 14 percent. East will not have enough money for much TV, but is doing radio. Miller will scramble to put up what she can. Her 14 percent is based on her high name ID from the many political races she has run. But Dems, according to the Journal poll, are not flocking to her candidacy. Conventional wisdom says under normal circumstances a third party candidate's support declines into Election Day. If so, Miller could be expected to finish with about 7 per cent of the vote. East should score in the low to mid- 30's.

A recent editorial in the Los Alamos Monitor endorsing Miller for this seat being vacated by Tom Udall shows the pitfalls for Lujan. An open seat invites the unexpected. Also, The Journal poll has a huge margin of error of 8.9% because of the small sample. Also, the northern district can be tricky to poll, another reason for Lujan to work like a mule.

For Lujan it is not so much the victory he has to worry about; it would take a game changing event to deny him. But he wants a very strong showing to kick-start him in D.C. There will be three new US House members from the state and if Lujan shows any weakness it could encourage chatter about a 2010 primary and/or general election challenger. A big win would free him to be more aggressive on Capitol Hill. Lujan is up on radio and in the mailboxes and traveling the district. Each extra vote he gets will make him that much stronger when he starts wrestling with the Alligators--and perhaps his fellow NM House members.

THE BEAR'S FOOTSTEPS
Blogger & Sen. Pino
The footsteps of the bear stalking Wall Street and now Main Street are starting to be heard on Paseo De Peralta--the street that is home to the storied New Mexico Roundhouse where 112 lawmakers will gather in January for a sixty day session. But if this rare consumer-led recession continues unabated, they may not need 60 days because they won't have the money to do much of anything.

Even liberal Dem State Senator Jerry Oritz y Pino, a leading advocate for government spending to attack a range of social ills, is glum about the state;'s short-term financial prospects. He says theprojected state surplus for the current budge year appears to be all but wiped out by plunging oil and natural gas prices. He says we can be thankful that we have some $600 million in cash reserves that will cushion an expected decline in gross receipts and other taxes in the coming year. But if oil and gas explores new lows and stay there, who knows where it will lead.

Governor Richardson is not about to make the state looming financial shortfall front-page news. He is busy campaigning for Obama and doesn't want the distraction. He is ignoring calls that the state start cutting back spending now in preparation for the downturn. For now, the ample cash reserves serve as a fall back argument for the Guv, but following Election Day, no one is going to be able to look away from the car wreck blocking our fiscal highway.

ON THE TRAIL

State Senate Minority Whip Lee Rawson is in a spirited campaign with enviro Steve Fischmann in his Las Cruces area district. But can Roundhouse veteran Rawson really be beaten? A operative for Dem Fischmann makes the case

An important race to compare is the 2006 Congressional race, where, in the districts that make up Rawson's Senate district, Democrat Al Kissling lost to Steve Pearce by only 1%. Pearce was well-financed and Al Kissling had nothing, and Al still almost beat him there. (Las Cruces Mayor) Ken Miyagishima's win against popular incumbent Bill Mattiace in the 2007 mayor's race showed the tide is turning in Las Cruces--Ken's city council district is contained within Rawson's district and provided Ken a strong base of support.

Rawson's run-in over a capital outlay bill he sponsored and which benefited a property his family owns is adding spark to this contest. Also, the Republican brand is in the tank, adding another factor that has this race on the watch list.

MORE STATE SENATE ACTION

If an Obama landslide develops in Bernalillo and Sandoval counties, Republicans in the know say they will have to make sure GOP State Senators John Ryan and Steve Komadina are not threatened. Ryan is seeking election to his second term and is being challenged by Victor Raigoza who has run for office before. John Sapien of Sandoval County is trying to oust Komadina who represents Corrales, medical doctor seeking his third term. Dems say Sapien, from a political family, has the pedigree to pull the upset, but may need help from Obama as Komadina has high name ID and no dark clouds hanging over his head.

CREDIT UNCRUNCHED?

NM lenders may be tightened lending standards in the wake of the credit crunch, but apparently not to the point where getting a loan is unusual. At least that's the finding in this unscientific reader poll conducted by NM Business Weekly. At last check, fifty-four percent of those responding say they have had no trouble getting credit for their business while 38 percent have.

Have news? comments? Suggestions? E-mail them in.

(c)NM POLITICS WITH JOE MONAHAN 2008
Not for reproduction without permission of the author

Thousands upon thousands of New Mexican voters could care less about the upcoming TV candidate debates, the last minute TV commercials and the flyers flooding into their mailboxes. They are among those closing the gates on Campaign '08 by voting early. Today, the first day of early voting, will attract several thousand of them. It's a process that will continue until the end of the month and, my experts say, account for as many as 60% of all the votes cast in the November 4th election. If we have a turnout of about 800,000 that would mean an early vote of 520,000. Each year the percentage of the electorate choosing to forego traditional Election Day voting grows forcing campaigns to adapt.

Voters love early voting because they can make their decision and tune-out the inevitable barrage of negative campaigning that defines the modern election cycle. Some of the media is starting to adjust by having their TV debates earlier and newspapers are starting to come with editorial endorsements in time to catch the early voters. Monday the Santa Fe New Mexican came with one of its earliest ever endorsements as they gave the nod to Dem US Senate candidate Tom Udall. While early voting is a great convenience, those who decide to play traditionalist and cast their ballot at the local school on Election Day may be rewarded for their patience with smaller lines and a chance to chat up their neighbors.

WHITE LAGS HEINRICH

New Mexico Republicans were jolted anew Monday when the ABQ Journal released its poll of the ABQ congressional district. For the first time this early in the cycle the Democratic nominee is leading the R. Dem Martin Heinrich leads Republican Darren White 43 to 41 with 16 percent undecided.

It wasn't supposed to be this way. The R's said they had delivered a golden boy in a Dem year that would keep the seat safely in GOP hands, continuing a 40 year trend. But polling prior to the Journal's showed that thesis in doubt--Heinrich's own late September poll had him leading by three-- and this poll confirms that underdog Heinrich is very close to being called the favorite. Not that the race is settled--far from it--but Heinrich may be positioned for a somewhat rare feat in ABQ congressional politics--benefiting significantly from the coattails of the presidential candidate. The Journal and pollster Brian Sanderoff say Obama is winning the metro area by 51%. McCain comes in at 34%. White is already outrunning McCain by a big margin. There's only so far he can run with that, while Heinrich has more room to grow in the direction of Obama.

The fly in the proverbial ointment for Heinrich is those conservative Reagan Democrats. The poll says he is earning 65% Dem support. Many D's don't know the former one term city councilor and there are others who are skeptical because of his liberal background. On the other hand, Heinrich has opened up a lead among the crucial independents (47 to 31 and 22 undecided) who normally go to the GOP. That is very good news indeed for Heinrich, who can now afford some bleeding among those conservative D's if he continues his head of steam with the indys.

Fifty-one percent of Hispanics polled favored Heinrich while White was favored by 32 percent, with 17 percent undecided or who wouldn't say. That's not too bad for Darren at this stage. Heinrich needs to work the South Valley harder and bring these voters home.

How can such a highly touted candidate like White be in such deep trouble? The national Dem trend is, of course, the primary reason. Heinrich remains a relatively unknown quantity. Many voters are voting against the Republican---never mind who the Dem foe is. No wonder the Alligators report that White was nowhere to be seen at McCain's ABQ visit Monday.

EVEN MORE ANALYSIS

Beyond the terrible environment for R's, White's campaign failed to campaign over the summer. They did nothing to define Heinrich or renew White's relationship with the electorate. Because he did not have sufficient funds, White came late to TV. The sheriff has shown himself to be knowledgeable about law enforcement, but not the other issues--particularly the economy--that a US congressman must deal with. He has also labored to present himself as "an independent voice" but has done little of note to demonstrate that independence. He has not rebutted Democratic charges that he is really a child of Bush, whose Bernalillo County campaign White co-chaired in 2004. Long ago, White broke with his Governor and quit his job. Now, he may face a similar decision in his relationship with the President.

The sheriff and his handlers did not seem prepared for this level of political combat, believing his long record in law enforcement would be accepted and rewarded by the voters. But that record was never presented and it turns out that many voters had only a shallow relationship with the sheriff. His record is now being presented to the voters by the Democrats in highly negative campaign ads. White has responded with one of his own, but the campaign is being fought on the wrong ground for the R's. The issue should not be whether White is a good sheriff but the competence and abilities of the Democratic candidate--the traditional route to victory for the R's in the ABQ district.

Heinrich doesn't have a lot to gloat about. As we said, he is the beneficiary of the national trend. His campaign has overspent, had various personnel issues, hid the candidate at times and been generally lackluster. Having said that, Heinrich has proven himself resilient by not making any public mistakes and being a relatively adept fund-raiser. This candidate has taken some hits that border on the personal, but has kept his cool. His restraint has served him well and perhaps given voters a sense that this is not the hapless, weak-kneed caricature that his foes were hoping would by now be his defined image.

There will be several TV debates between Heinrich and White and a mistake by either candidate could shake the race. The contest remains a toss-up but Heinrich has a tailwind and White has a headwind. But leading on coattails has dangers. If Obama should fall on his sword, Heinrich bleeds. Still, for a Democrat to be ahead in the ABQ congressional race on the day early voting begins is a first-time accomplishment. For a moment at least, it blacks out 40 years of unpleasant memories.

HARRY AND ED

Sorry, no ABQ Journal poll for the big race in the southern congressional district featuring Dem Harry Teague and R Ed Tinsley. Seems the recession is taking its toll. Teague did have some news Monday. His campaign said:

(We) raised approximately $1,096,000 in the third quarter, which runs from July 1st through September 30th. Teague loaned $500,000 to his campaign during the quarter, bringing his total personal contributions to approximately $1,265,000...Sixty-four percent of total individual donations came from within the 2nd Congressional District.

The national D's and oil wealthy Harry are outspending Tinsley on TV. Ed's been hammering Harry on gun ownership and now he's come with the endorsement of the NRA.

FATHERS OF SUCCESS

We received a new copy of that invitation for the ABQ debate watch party tonight of US House Speaker Nancy Pelosi on behalf of Martin Heinrich. This one, unlike the first one we posted, prominently lists Governor Richardson and Senator Bingaman as hosts for the fund-raiser. Heinrich is doing well for now, so you can't be surprised that success has many fathers. (Click on image to enlarge.)

MAC'S RETURN

McCain rolled into ABQ for a quick visit Monday that won him the usual intensive nightly news coverage the campaign yearns for, as well as the live coverage of the three cable news channels.Beyond that, there was not much of a local nature that voters here would grab onto. Senator Domenici introduced him at the early afternoon rally at the Student Union Building at the University of New Mexico, a location in the heart of Obama country and which drew youthful protesters the TV cameras gravitated to. Video of McCain's speech here.

As we said earlier, our eyes on the scene say ABQ congressional hopeful Darren White did not attend the McCain event, apparently taking to heart that it is the Republican brand that is a prime reason he lags Dem Heinrich. Reps. Wilson and Pearce did attend, but neither made comments.

McCain will likely return as he trails Obama here by five points, but still has an outside chance for the upset. A stop in southern NM to beef up the conservative base may be in order. Or how about a solo visit from VP contender Palin? That would get those GOP hearts throbbing.

E-mail your news and comments.

(c)NM POLITICS WITH JOE MONAHAN 2008
Not for reproduction without permission of the author

McCain & Speaker Pelosi Back To ABQ
Just when you thought they had forgotten us, they're back. Today John McCain is in ABQ; tomorrow US House Speaker Nancy Pelosi is in the Duke City as New Mexico resumes its role as presidential battleground, even as polling shows Obama with a healthy lead, but not necessarily an insurmountable one. But does John McCain gain on Obama by going to the heart of Obama country--the University of New Mexico--for an afternoon rally today? The Alligators--who broke the news here that McCain would be in NM sometime this week--pointed out that the UNM area is locked, loaded and ready to fire for Obama. Isn't a 1:15 p.m. stop at the Student Union Ballroom akin to General Custer riding into the Little Bighorn? Why not put McCain on ABQ’s West Side or near NE Heights where his chances of persuading voters still on the bench are much better? Perhaps because he has to get out of here quick and needs to be close to the airport? If logistics are outweighing voter appeal, the campaign needs to take a deep breath.

Today's visit is one of those "by invitation" events, which means protesters and would-be hecklers will have a hard time getting into the SUB to heckle McCain, but if McCain was going to pick a spot where a Republican would find plenty of foes, it is a university campus. Dems have announced a campus news conference and voter registration rally to coincide with the visit. Tuesday is the last day to register to vote in the November 4 election. (Tickets to McCain available starting at 8 a.m. only at: McCain Headquarters 5643 Jefferson Street NE Suite B & C, ABQ.)

THE DOOMSDAY SCENARIO

McCain's NM campaign could be reacting to the doomsday scenario---he loses Bernalillo County by over 15,000 votes, Obama performs well in the Spanish North and there is nowhere left for McCain to make up the difference. Going to UNM could be aimed at dampening down the Tsunami forming in that area which could produce the fatal votes against McCain, but you can't stop a bursting dam with a twig, and going to UNM provides the Dems and Obama camp the easy opportunity to organize protests and make the media. But McCain bills himself as "The Maverick" and by stopping in the heart of the enemy he is certainly living up to his self-described billing.

McCain comes here on the heels of the first ABQ Journal NM Prez survey showing him trailing Obama 45 percent to 40 percent with 14 percent undecided and 1 percent going to minor candidates. The good news for McCain is that he is not further behind given the dismal economic news and the state's Dem registration advantage. The bad news is he is still poised to lose the state unless there is a game-changing event. Given the course of the campaign, the odds of such a happening may not be too far fetched.

INSIDE DOOMSDAY

Still, the dagger hanging over McCain here is the Bernalillo County math. Obama's organizational presence here is huge, and there are signs that the most dangerous saying in politics and stock market bubbles--"This time it's different"--could actually be true. The difference in 2008 being an upswing in youthful voters enamored with Obama, boosting his inner city vote in ABQ to the point that McCain is a goner.

The Arizona Senator is currently losing the metro area--defined by the Journal and pollster Brian Sanderoff as Bernalillo, Sandoval and Valencia counties--by a margin of 51-34. The number sounds about right for Obama, but perhaps a tad low for McCain. The margin of error in the survey is 3.8%. Again, we see this race crystallizing around the crucial question of Bernalillo County. Kerry thought his nearly 11,000 Bernalillo vote win over Bush in 2004 was enough to protect him from the southern rural onslaught, the conservative suburbs and a so-so northern showing. It wasn't. He lost the state by 5,998. Polls say McCain can't quite match Bush's 2004 superior performance outside of ABQ, so if Obama takes the state's largest county by around 15,000 or more (out of about 280,000 cast), it is game set and tennis matches on the White House lawn for Obama.

SPANISH NORTH ANALYSIS

The Hispanic numbers in the Journal poll were gratifying for the Dems, if not yet conclusive. Obama was ahead 62 to 17 with 21% undecided. McCain may get most, but not all of those still unsure. But Obama will get his share and that would mean he would improve upon Kerry's 62% Hispanic showing here. More important is the turnout among Hispanics. Obama would win the battle but lose the war if Hispanics give him 68%, but Hispanic turnout remains as low as for Kerry. Which raises a question--perhaps for the northern press and the campaigns to look into--What are the Catholic churches in the north saying about Obama and his stands on abortion and gay marriage? Obama hopes, that unlike four years ago, they aren't saying much of anything.

Obama's Espanola visit two weeks ago was a deft step. He may travel north one more time in the final month, but the first order of business will likely be ABQ and boosting that turnout that would shut the door with finality on McCain. Second, is keeping the Hispanic north moving slowing but surely his way, and third is Dona Ana County where a quick visit close to Election Day should be enough to seal the deal.

SOUTH TO THE BORDER

McCain still needs to head south and boost enthusiasm and turnout in the southern congressional district where out-performance for an R Prez candidate is mandatory. Sanderoff separated out "Little Texas" in his polling this year. The Journal did not list the counties, but we have them as including Chaves, Eddy, Lea and Roosevelt. McCain is leading that mainly conservative area 64 to 23. The rest of the southern district, including Dona Ana, has McCain ahead 50 to 30. McCain is leading, but like Bush, he will need to blow the southern doors off if Obama surges in big Bernalillo.

ON THE FENCE

The percentage of undecided in the Journal poll--14 percent--is much higher than other surveys, and that's to be expected, but still raises questions about turnout and the effect of race on the contest.

Most of the Prez polling has been conducted by automatic telephone surveys which push for an answer. The Journal poll interviews likely voters over the phone, getting a clear read on the undecided. But 14 per cent is quite a bit with early voting starting this week. There's a lot of Democratic Anglo voters among them. Will some of them not vote in the Prez race? How many will vote for McCain? The ratings for the first TV debate between Obama and McCain were lower than expected, another reason some think that voter turnout might not be quite as high as anticipated. It is something we simply can't know for sure until Election Night.

SENATE SURVEY SAYS...

Not much to analyze. The ABQ Journal poll on the NM US Senate race between Dem Tom Udall and Republican Steve Pearce confirms Udall's lead. It's Tom 51 percent to Steve's 36 percent. Undecided is 13 percent. Pearce is in the unenviable position of having to win over just about all the undecided vote. Udall carries his home north by a stunning 75 percent. Not much to add to that. We'll keep you posted.

CONGRESSIONAL GRAND SLAM?

Recent polling suggests the once unthinkable--an all Democratic NM D.C. delegation. The Journal will soon come with congressional district polling, expected to hold good news for ABQ congressional hopeful Martin Heinrich as well as southern Dem contender Harry Teague. KOB-TV's Stuart Dyson and I took a look at the possibility of all five members of the delegation going D. We had an all R NM delegation for a brief time in the early 80's. The Dems haven't held all of the state's federal seats at once since '68.

NANCY'S SMILING FACE

We're pretty sure US House Speaker Nancy Pelosi looks forward to being here tomorrow to watch the next presidential debate and fete Martin Heinrich at a fund-raising reception at the home of ABQ developer Gary Goodman. Mother hen Nancy would love to have three NM chicks to show around the Capitol and, of course, have them vote to keep her as Speaker. (Click on image of invite to enlarge.)

We thought we saw Northern Dem hopeful Ben Ray Lujan, the surest Dem winner of the NM bunch, thoughtfully mentioned in one of the e-mails going around about Nancy's visit. The House majority leader, Steny Hoyer, recently held a big fund-raiser for Ben Ray in Martin's home district, creating the impression that perhaps Ben Ray was getting a bit of special treatment from the House powers-that-be. If so, it will be more than made up up to Heinrich with plenty of nurturing from Nancy, Light Guv Diane Denish and other "Women Leaders" who are hosting what is billed as an "elegant reception."

Southern hopeful Harry Teague need not come around to pay his respects to Nancy and Company, although he could. The less the conservatives in the south are reminded that Harry and liberal Nancy would set up house together in D.C. the better.

KARI VS. LISA

The race for Bernalillo County District Attorney featuring two astute players is heating up and bursting into the headlines. Thursday Republican Lisa Torraco got the front-page splash she wanted as she hammered Democratic incumbent Kari Brandenburg over the DA's conviction rate. Friday Kari suffered another hit as her handling of a notorious double murder was called into question. Torraco took advantage and scored some TV time in addition to badly needed ink. She has also continued to hammer away with paid radio which you can listen to here.

We haven't seen any paid media from Kari yet; she has more financial resources than Lisa who last reported raising in the area of $50,000. Kari can be expected to come with TV ads and in your mailboxes soon. Torraco may or may not have enough for a TV buy that makes a difference.

Brandenburg is going for her third term after being unopposed for her second one four years ago. That is a long stint and the baggage can pile up. She has benefited from a friendly press and this year a seemingly big Dem trend in Bernalillo County. The race, on the front lines of crime fighting in a community riddled with crime, deserves high-profile play, but it is competing with many other high-profile races, putting more pressure on Torraco to get her message out against a well-known incumbent who only now is being asked to defend herself.

THE BOTTOM LINES

CQ Politics is one of the more conservative Prez ratings services. They've just switched NM to "lean Obama" from "no clear favorite."...Reader Ellen Wedum continues our coverage of the Wall Street bailout with this comment: "The second bill the Congress passed just adds more pork. I am disappointed in both Senators Domenici and Bingaman. It does NOT provide for any accountability, and it does NOT provide a way to pay for the $700 billion. A return to the corporate tax levels of the 1950's is needed to pay for this, not more national debt."

The ABQ Journal called NM's Senators "statesmen" for voting for the bailout. Were those the "statesmen" who loaded up the bailout bill with $150 billion in even more spending? The Journal faces off with the New Mexican on this one...

Thanks, Ellen. News? Comment? E-mail it in.

(c)NM POLITICS WITH JOE MONAHAN 2008
Not for reproduction without permission of the author

If Sarah Palin further excited the conservative base of the GOP because of Thursday night's debate with Joe Biden, that would be good news for the R's in southern NM who fear an upset in their congressional race. (see below) They need more enthusiasm on the ground for McCain. But overall, New Mexico analysts interviewed felt Palin may have done more to shed her airhead image than anything else.

"This was not a game-changing debate, but she did stop the bleeding the Republican ticket was suffering. In three or four days, this will not be a well-remembered event, but she did help herself, if not necessarily the standing of McCain," analyzed veteran Dem Mike Santullo as we made the cell phone rounds into the late night hours. He added that Palin did not help herself when she strayed and did not address the questions she was asked.

"She reinvigorated the campaign because she performed above expectations, but now it's up to McCain to close the sale," said longtime Republican Eric Lucero, a GOP Ward chairman in Bernalillo County.

Veteran Dem analyst Harry Pavlides agreed that Palin stopped the bleeding for the R's and made inroads with conservative voters who are still undecided, but not more. "Biden won the war, but she won the battle she needed to win--which was to stop the questions about her intelligence and experience."

But did Palin do more than help consolidate votes that should naturally be with the R's? There was no clear evidence that she had if post-debate polls and focus groups run by the networks were to be believed.

Respected conservative columnist Charles Krauthammer wrote this missive prior to the debate, but it is worth noting that he believes Obama is about to take the White House. In NM, Rasmussen's latest numbers say it is Obama 49 to McCain's 44. SurveyUSA gives it to Obama 52 to 44.

Everything about the lackluster campaigns for the ABQ and southern congressional seats is summed up in the way the candidates handled their responses to the $700 billion bailout bill. When the campaigns of Ed Tinsley and Darren White were first asked where they stood on the bailout, Tinsley's campaign gave a non-answer and White's campaign delayed commenting. That led us to reasonably conclude (and blog) that the two candidates were apparently for the bailout. But after putting their fingers to the wind, White and Tinsley told the ABQ Journal they would have voted against the bailout. And Democrat Martin Heinrich doesn't get off the hook. Even now, the paper reports, Martin isn't saying how he would have voted on legislation of a lifetime! (Southern Dem Harry Teague says he would have voted against the bailout.)

The tentativeness and uncertainty of the state's congressional candidates when dealing with spontaneous news stories has been the most revealing aspect of Campaign '08, not the ubiquitous and manipulative 30 second campaign commercials. These are the most heavily handled candidates we've seen in years. Because these hopefuls have such limited political experience, everyone is trying to avoid making the big mistake, while the voters try to figure out which of them can lead. That's why we need free wheeling TV debates, so we can determine the true characters of these novice political characters.

PETE & JEFF

Even some of those with lengthy political experience seemed out of touch with the public rage and anger at the government. NM GOP Senator Pete Domenici drew the wrath of CNN's Lou Dobbs, among many others, for attaching a mental health parity bill to the historic financial bailout legislation the Senate approved Wednesday night. This, after Domenici warned of dire consequences if a bailout bill is not approved. Guess things aren't so dire after all if there's room for Pete's pet project during a national crisis. Now the House must debate that issue along with the critical economic measures. Pete did get a nod for this work--not from the conservatives, but from the liberal editorial pages of the New York Times. That's how upside down the politics of the bailout has become.

Even NM Dem Senator Bingaman, who voted for the bailout last night and is as thoughtful as they get, could not resist loading up the bailout bill with his pet cause--"clean energy" tax incentives. How that is related to the matter at hand loses the public, but that's the way the Congress does business. Its current approval rating is around 10 percent. The bill now goes to the House for a Friday vote. Senate hopefuls Udall and Pearce voted against the first bailout bill. They say they are undecided on this one.

OVER THE TOP?

Is Darren White's new TV ad using the father and mother of slain sheriff's deputy James McGrane over the top? KOB-TV's Stuart Dyson and I tackled that question. Here's the report.

Some observers were critical not just of White, but of McGrane's parents for lending themselves and their son's memory to a political campaign. The ad featuring the McGrane's is White's response to an attack ad Dem Martin Heinrich has run against the sheriff questioning his law enforcement credentials, but never mentions Deputy McGrane or the incident that took his life. The emotions of aggrieved parents can be understood, but when they come on the public stage their motives and statements are going to come under scrutiny. Such are the hot flames of La Politica in an election year October.

NO CHANGE

The calendar may have changed to a new month, but not the chances of Republican Steve Pearce to become the next NM US Senator. The latest SurveyUSA poll released Wednesday shows a huge lead for Dem Tom Udall. It's Udall 58 percent to Pearce's 39 and three percent undecided. That may exaggerate Udall's lead some, but clearly the economic crisis is benefiting the Democrats nationwide. Without that as a backdrop, Udall would likely be lower. But that's the reality Pearce has to deal with--somehow.

HE'S BACK

Maybe John McCain can lift the spirits of New Mexico R's. He'll be back here on or around October 10 for a visit that could take him around the state, report our reliable insiders. Will Pearce do what Bush did in October 2004 and do a swing through rural NM? Experts say McCain needs to close the gap with Obama here by bringing home votes in conservative southern NM. He is still not performing up to par in that region. That could help McCain with his statewide standing and also give a lift to GOP Southern congressional hopeful Ed Tinsley who is in danger of losing the US House seat to Dem Harry Teague.

Speaking of Teague, he's been stung by that TV spot from GOP rival Ed Tinsley that accuses him of being anti-gun. He came with this response. The tag line not so subtly hints at Tinsley's part-time Santa Fe residence. "Ed Tinsley. Not for us. Not one of us."

In Tinsley's attack ad, he cites a quote from the ABQ Journal that says Teague described himself as "not a gun fan" and that "it would be fine with me to turn my guns in.." to the government. As with the White ad in which the candidate does not address the specific charges, Teague's response also ignores the specifics, issuing a blanket denial and then going on to level new charges against Tinsley. Teague has said he owns several guns.

WEAKS ON THE WEAK ECONOMY

If we are going to have a slowdown in our state, NM lobbyist Dan Weaks thinks there's something we could do about it--right now.

Wouldn’t it be a good idea to fast track the $1 billion plus in public projects that are grinding through the government capital outlay process? Let's cut the red tape and set up a task force to get the stalled projects going...Streamline the approvals and put our money to work creating jobs instead of leaving huge amounts in low earning investments. And, if the state is having concerns selling bonds needed for the construction, why not offer a sale to New Mexicans and New Mexico institutions with reasonable rates of return? Use local institutions instead of the national jolly green incompetent giants. We may not have a recession; we may just have constipation...

And they are not "make work" jobs Weaks is talking about. The projects--community improvements statewide--have been authorized and budgeted, but we have dragged our feet and the money, as Weaks points out, is just sitting there. Sounds like an opportunity for all three major players--The Legislature, Big Bill and possible future Guv Lady Di. Will one of them grab it?

BAIL EM' OUT!

Reader Norman Shatkin blogs in from Lake Katrine, NY to chastise us for not supporting the $700 billion Wall Street bailout, and praising Rep. Steve Pearce and Udall for their votes against the measure:

What Pearce is doing is staking out an "anti-government" position because most people don't understand the issue and are appalled at the idea of the government bailing out Wall Street. It IS appalling, but the things we've witnessed in the past few months are unprecedented...People who understand the issues say that doing nothing is not an option. The world runs on credit, and credit really has seized up. (Treasury Secretary) Paulson's proposal, as modified by Congress, may or may not solve the problem, but Pearce's is not any better, and pretending that the situation isn't all that bad isn't going to change the fact...

Let's clarify, Norman. Some credit, not all, has seized up. See our blog on NM's independent banks that we ran Wednesday. We agree something needs to be done, but we applaud Pearce and Udall for voting down the initial plan. That gives us a chance to get something better and better thought out. In other words, fear-mongering, threats and panic is not the answer.

BANK ON IT, OR NOT?

Reader John Gniady, reacting to our blog yesterday noting the decline in the stock of regional bank First State Bancorp, says we may have been too optimistic when we said there did not appear to be "cracks in the finances" of the regional bank. He notes the stock fell hard again Wednesday and bears watching. Hard to argue with that in this charged atmosphere. We will note that deposits of up to $100,000 in First State, as in most banks, are insured by the FDIC.

After listening to hyperbolic TV talking heads Mr. and Mrs. New Mexico could hardly be faulted if they thought of heading to the craps tables at Sandia to try to cover their stock losses and finding additional succor by loudly playing "Can't Buy me Love" on their iPods. But the reality of the situation, according to a top NM finance man, is hardly that stark.

"If there's one message I would like to get out to New Mexicans is that we have money to lend; we are open for business and want to do business," declared Jerry Walker a former legislator and now the President and CEO of the Independent Community Bankers Association of New Mexico.

"We don't have rotten paper on our balance sheets. And the energy industry is doing well. But small banks have been tarred along with the ones that are really in trouble," explained Walker who calls Farmington home.

There has been some downside action in the stock of First State Bancorp because of Fannie Mae stock it owned and had to write down, but no signs of any cracks in the finances of that or other local banks. Knock on wood.

Walker's palliative is a welcome fear antidote. But if there is a major economic slowdown even small banks could take a hit if their real estate and other loans get into trouble. But for now, Walker insists, the spigot is turned on in New Mexico. If you have decent credit you can get a loan for whatever constitutes your personal American Dream.

SHRINKING CITY HALL?
Chavez
Getting a loan in NM may not be the big problem in this economic environment but keeping your job could be. At ABQ's City Hall, where they are counting on growth of only two percent this fiscal year, tax collection projections are already running short. Mayor Chavez ordered a hiring freeze for vacant positions last year when the economy slowed. You have to wonder now much more water he can get out of that rock if a major recession takes hold. He has not cut services, and delivering those services with fewer employees who are eligible for overtime have to be taking their toll.

Fifty-three percent of the city budget goes to public safety. If things get rough, Chavez's instinct may be to promise no layoffs at the police and fire departments. But he may want to hold his fire. If there is going to be economic hell to pay, the public may want the 11th Floor to start trimming the fat even in those popular, but perhaps over-budgeted agencies. Critics will charge that Chavez gave the city too many big budgets during the good times, but we didn't see the city council or public objecting. Chavez plans to seek a third term next year. So far, no heavyweight foes have surfaced. Could rough economic waters change that?

In Santa Fe, Governor Big Bill is yet to take serious the suggestion from Senate Finance Committee Co-Chair John Arthur Smith, known by the Guv as "Dr. No," that the state start cutting back nonessential spending. This as the projected energy surplus disappears in the face of declining oil and natural gas prices. But if prices don't rebound soon, a day of reckoning will come. The state has ample reserves to cushion an initial decline, but if it gets deep, cherished state government jobs, for the first time in memory, could be eyed for possible layoffs or a hiring freeze. Don't say we didn't tell you.

HEINRICH VS. WHITE

This ad from Dem congressional hopeful Martin Heinrich against Republican rival and Bernalillo County Sheriff Darren White drew real blood. It hits White for losing a confidence vote from state police when he headed up the state department of public safety. It drew enough blood for White to come with a response spot Tuesday featuring the parents of slain sheriff's deputy James McGrane. They repudiate Heinrich for questioning White's competence as a lawman. McGrane was killed while making a traffic stop in March 2006. The White ad is posted here. Does the ad exploit the murder of a lawman for political purposes? The parents did agree to appear, but this powerful ad is sure to raise the issue.

READY FOR THE POLL

Insiders say they are hearing the ABQ Journal's first poll of the election season will hit the streets this Sunday. That would mean polling this week. We do know the paper will do only two surveys. If Dem Heinrich is tied or ahead of Republican White in the ABQ House race in this first poll, it would be the first time that a Dem polled ahead this early in the cycle. Heinrich in recent months has come with two polls showing him leading, the most recent last Friday. If the Journal poll does not agree, White's camp will get a boost.

LET THERE BE PEACE

It was a nasty primary fight, that showdown for the northern Dem congressional nomination between Ben Ray Lujan, Santa Fe developer Don Wiviott and an assortment of other contenders. But Wiviott and Lujan appear to be healing their wounds. Don spent in the area of $1.5 million on the nomination fight. He came in second but lost handily to Lujan. Wiviott will be co-hosting a Santa Fe fund-raising reception to benefit Lujan Thursday night. Don's spouse, Kelly, nominated by the Alligators for NM wife of the year for letting Don dip so deeply into the family fortune, will also be on hand. Click on the image for more.

JEFF AND TOM

A Bingaman insider moved to strike down the notion blogged here Tuesday that US Rep and Dem Senate nominee Tom Udall consulted with Bingaman before voting against the $700 billion bailout. Meantime, Bingaman told radio reporters he would have voted for the bailout if he were a House member. But would he have voted for it if he was a House member up for re-election in just a month? If Udall did ask Bingaman for political advice, it's hard to imagine Jeff telling him to vote for the controversial measure. Bingaman hasn't won five Senate terms with a broken hearing aid.

Udall needed an issue to show independents and conservative Dems that he could break from the liberal leadership of his party. He got it in the bailout package. Can Udall (and Pearce) now vote for a different bailout package? It could pose a risk, but much will depend on how united the Congress is in their new approach.

VAMOS A VOTAR POR OBAMA

Now we take you to the far end of the campaign trail, to Taos County, where the New Mexican political music tradition makes its way into yet another century. Take it away......




THE BOTTOM LINES

Elisa Montoya of NM is serving as National Director of Latino Outreach for the Obama campaign. Elisa is a '93 St. Michaels's High grad from Santa Fe, and a grad of USC Law School. She worked on Capitol Hill for Senate Majority Leader Reid and for Colorado Senator Ken Salazar. Stephanie Valencia of Las Cruces is Obama's National Deputy Latino Vote Director. Before coming to the campaign, she was press secretary to Sen. Salazar.

We haven't heard how that $10,000 a person dinner held by former NM Attorney General Paul Bardacke with Caroline Kennedy as the guest went. The daughter of JFK kept her Santa Fe visit for Obama low-key, but did meet with about 175 at a City Different restaurant. That seemed to keep happy those who were complaining that they could not afford to see her.

Just looked at the recent post about State Sen. Lee Rawson again. I called him the minority leader, but he is the minority whip. That's on top of screwing up the registration numbers in his district. That was a rough blogging streak...

Reader Matt Hemmendinger asked that we plug his Obama event. Here it is: "Art for Change will be held at 8:00 pm at the Orpheum Art Space, 500 2nd St. SW, in downtown Albuquerque. People attending the event are asked to donate $10 to the Campaign for Change and the event is open to the public"...And a Republican reader wanted us to point to this McCain page where there is a form to fill out to become a NM Election Day volunteer.

This is the home of New Mexico politics. Help us cover Campaign '08. E-mail your news and comments.

(c)NM POLITICS WITH JOE MONAHAN 2008
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