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Friday, August 27, 2010

The Summer Is Susana's: Rasmussen Has Di Five Down, Plus: King & Lewis May Lead Dem Ticket, And: More Opinions On Di & Hispanic Vote 

Two polls down and one to go. Rasmussen released a New Mexico Guv survey Thursday that showed Dem Diane Denish trailing Republican Susana Martinez by five points--48% to 43%. Three percent name others and six percent are undecided. The poll, taken Wednesday, comes on the heels of the news here of an insider candidate poll from mid-August that had Di trailing by a dozen points and days before Sunday's ABQ Journal poll which is now expected to confirm the summer Susana trend.

Senior Alligator Analysis:

--We have a long way to go. Susana is below the magic 50%, although she Tweeted that the race was 51% to 44% when Rasmussen counted the "leaners" and ignored the 48% to 43% spread. That seemed like an overreach and a sign perhaps of too much cockiness on her part. She is also trying to spin that she is over the magic number--and she clearly is not.

--The narrative continues to be that Susana has consolidated much of the conservative vote early. She has 86% support among Republicans; 76% of Dems backed Denish. It may be easier for Denish to pick up what's left of the undecided than Susana.

--Obama is at 57% approval in New Mexico in the Rasmussen poll taken Wednesday. That's too high. Usually Rasmussen skews a bit Republican, but this time he skews Dem. Because of that Di may actually be a point or two lower.

--Even if Obama is at 51 or 52 percent statewide, he is still higher than that in the north and an asset there to Denish. This is a presidency with strong appeal to Hispanics and Native Americans. We expect to see the Prez in El Norte for Di before the final bell.

--Susana getting to 48% is solid. Even in a Republican friendly year, it is a major accomplishment for a GOP Guv candidate to be this far ahead this early in a statewide poll.

--The Dems are paying for their ineffective June TV attacks on Martinez. If they had held her back some then, she might be at the more comfortable 45% mark, not inching toward 50%. In the last Rasmussen in late June, Martinez was ahead by two points--44% to 42%.

---Di beat Susana by 21 points in Rasmussen among Hispanics. But we want to see live polling on this sometimes hard to reach demo. Denish still has much work to do with this base Dem group.

--Negative campaigning by both sides will begin in earnest following Labor Day.

GARY AND JAMES
King & Lewis
The insider pre-Labor Day polling for the Dems has been generally miserable, but there is some good news in the numbers for the majority party. Attorney General Gary King and State Treasurer James B. Lewis are both performing well in the surveys. Both Dems are seeking re-election this year. King is being challenged by Clovis are District Attorney Matt Chandler and Lewis will face former Dona Ana County Treasurer Jim Schoonover.

King toyed with the idea of running for Guv this year, but deferred to Diane Denish. Now she may be calling on him even more to help her in her hot race with Republican Susana Martinez. And on that front...

As we've been telling you this week, the early polling shows a lot of undecided voters among New Mexico Hispanics, prompting worries that Dem Guv nominee Denish is in danger of ceding to many of these traditional Dem voters to Martinez. Some Dems expressed concern here that Denish does not have enough Hispanics in her inner circle, but her campaign operatives push back against that notion.

Our office staff consists of 7 members, 5 of which are Hispanics. There's plenty of Hispanic influence in our office and just because we are not part of the Rio Chama crowd doesn't make us less influential- I can assure you and your Alligators of that.

For the uninitiated, the Rio Chama is the bar in Santa Fe across from the Roundhouse where assorted hangers-on and wall-leaners chew the political fat.

AND SOME MORE...


And another Denish take on Hispanic involvement in her election effort:

Hispanics hold key senior-level positions both on the campaign and in her Lt. Gov office. Furthermore, there are a number of Hispanic leaders who serve as informal advisers to Diane--and that’s a group that she consults with on a very regular basis. Democratic Party Chairman Javier Gonzales has been a valued political adviser, inside the circle every step of the way, along with other key current/former elected officials, community leaders and campaign veterans.

There have been, and will continue to be, many events in the Hispanic community - particularly in the North...For several months now, the campaign has been airing radio ads on stations popular in the Hispanic community (both English and Spanish language stations). This has focused primarily in North-Central New Mexico and in Dona Ana, but recently expanded to ABQ/Bernalillo metro area radio as well.

NO QUESTIONS, PLEASE

Chaos, backstabbing, criminal allegations, employee suspensions and more. No, it's not an episode of the Sopranos, but direct from the NM Secretary of State's office--for the second day running.

SOS Mary Herrera tried to quiet things down by calling a news conference, but then she refused to answer questions. We have a question. Did this "news conference" take place in Santa Fe or Havana?

DON'T DUMP SCHWARTZ?

A contrary view from ours that ABQ District Court Judge Bob Schwartz should head for the exits after news of his "romantic fling" with an assistant public defender broke. From reader Dan Klein:

...Just what discipline rules are you using to remove him from the bench? The woman involved did not complain. She has said she was not offended. It was Judge Schwartz who came forward and reported himself...He was having issues with his medication and asked his employer for help, and now you want to remove him? Exactly what did he do wrong here? If the woman is not upset and he recused himself from her cases, while reporting himself to his employer, just what are you basing removal on?

...I would hope the State Supreme Court reaches out a helping hand and realizes judges are people too. They have mental and physical issues just like the rest of us. It was honorable for Judge Schwartz to report himself. It is a shame the media and others want to hang him for it.

(Yes Bob Schwartz is a friend of mine, but I would defend others in the same position).


One other thing on the Schwartz blog. We said he was a Republican, but readers inform that while he was an R, he has since switched back to D. In fact, he ran in a Democratic primary in 2008. Schwartz served eight years as Bernalillo County district attorney as a Republican. In 2001, he ran for mayor of ABQ as an R.

Back here Sunday with a special report for you on the first ABQ Journal poll on the 2010 race for governor. Meanwhile, thanks for stopping by this week.

Reporting to you from Albuquerque, I'm Joe Monahan

Email your news and comments.

(c)NM POLITICS WITH JOE MONAHAN 2010
Not for reproduction without permission of the author

Thursday, August 26, 2010

Emotions Roused Over Poll Showing Di Lagging Susana, Plus: Judge Gone Wild: What To Do With Bob Schwartz, And: Bear Market Still Grips ABQ 

  • Rasmussen poll released Thursday afternoon has Susana Martinez with a five point lead over Diane Denish. Martinez polls 48% to Denish's 43%. The full poll is here. The survey among likely voters was conducted Wednesday, Aug. 24
Denish & Colon
Democratic emotions erupted in the wake of the news passed along here Wednesday that our reliable sources tell us that Republican Susana Martinez held a double-digit lead (12 points) over Dem Diane Denish in a mid-August automatic phone poll conducted by a candidate for statewide office.

Never mind that we explained that much of this lead is because voters naturally friendly to Martinez--R's and conservative independents- have come home to her early and that the poll was taken a couple of weeks ago and could be long in the tooth. That didn't stop the alarm bells from being sounded and the email circuits from getting clogged with concern.

Many politicos apparently spent the summer in their hammocks, unaware that this is a rough year for Democrats. We're happy to give them a wake-up call; we just hope they didn't spill their umbrella decorated drinks on themselves. We don't have a budget for dry cleaning bills.

Several of our emailers joked that we ought to charge veteran ABQ Journal pollster Brian Sanderoff a promotional fee because interest in his first poll on the Guv race to be released Sunday is now as highly anticipated as the latest edition of the Sports Illustrated swimsuit edition. (Well, maybe not quite).

With polling frenzy mounting, we decided to check in with two old hands of La Politica and seek some consensus on what that poll will show when the papers drop on the dew-moistened lawns this weekend.

Veteran Dem pollster Harry Pavlides offers reassurance to his political brethren. The Journal poll, he predicts, will reveal a four point lead for Martinez. He bases that on his knowledge of the poll's methodology--who they poll--and his own gut instinct for the race.

"The Democrats have to learn how to effectively attack Martinez in the final two months" He declared.


Another of our analysts for the cycle, former ABQ GOP City Councilor Greg Payne, offered no Pavlides palliatives. He said Dem newspaper readers Sunday will get heartburn with their Huevos Rancheros, prognosticating not only that Martinez will sport a 10 point lead over Denish, but that Susana will be right at the magic number of 50%.

"We will be surprised by how well Martinez is doing in Bernalillo County," he argued.

We wonder if Payne's prediction for our Democratic readers is really a form of torture. To keep him honest, if he is too far off he's buying lunch for a posse of Alligators.

MORE WHITE BREAD

Speaking of Alligators, we heard from one of the Senior and Democratic variety in response to our analysis on how various polling is showing Denish having problems nailing down the Hispanic vote--a usually reliable Democratic block.

Your column really nails the Denish problem. If she doesn't do what you and others have recommended regarding the North we can kiss the Gov race goodbye. She should have shaken up her campaign staff right after the primary and brought more Hispanics in to key positions. I am reminded of the (former Governor) Bruce King inner circle that didn't exactly embrace Hispanics. To some extent he overcame it personally with his memory for people and warmth. But it was old school.

We all know that (Denish campaign chair) Ted Martinez hasn't been a player in Diane's strategic operation. But Ted represents the past and not the present reality. There is indeed a deficit in the Denish's likability in the North and the chickens coming home to roost. However, Dems know the stakes are high so they may pitch in and help if she reaches out.


Denish isn't tone deaf. Posted with this story is a flyer (click to enlarge) for a mid-September Matanza in the village of San Jose, south of Las Vegas. Denish will be feted at the event which is sponsored by State Senator Phil Griego. Dems are hopeful the party will attract several thousand people the old fashioned way--with free food. Heck, with this economy they may run out of chicharrones.

KICKIN' THE DEMS

More from the email and a Senior Alligator who favors Martinez:

The Democrat political class have a vested interest in a Denish win that gets in the way of what is best for New Mexico. There must be punishment at the polls in November for the excesses of the past eight years...A Denish election would mean a signal to the miscreants that there is no price to pay for corruption. The voters will not so signal. Instead, they want someone with balls and brains to clean up Santa Fe and let the chips fall where they may. The Democrat political class who hope to keep business as usual after November are delusional about the voters intent.


Finally, Hispanic attraction for Susana is not a momentary flirtation where we eventually go home with Denish. She will not be taken home at closing time.

JUDGE GONE WILD

Here's a good one. You're a district court judge in ABQ and take to the sack (or try to) with the 29 year old assistant public defender who represented defendants in your courtroom. On your first date you give her a "gag gift" of a book titled,"The One Hour Orgasm" with a picture of yourself in judicial robes pasted over the picture of the book's author.

And to make sure you make a good first impression you also give the lady a pair of purple latex gloves that she can use to masturbate herself. Isn't that special?

But it's no joke. It's the latest from ABQ District Court Judge Bob Schwartz, a former Bernalillo County district attorney, who says he got off his meds and soon after became a role model for "Judges Gone Wild."

So what happens to a member of the court who flips out like this on the bench? If it's around here, apparently not much. The NM Judicial Standards Commission is mulling over a 60 day unpaid suspension for the 60 year old wayward jurist.

Everyone knows Bob Schwartz and he's a darn likable guy, but he is unfit to be a judge. He needs to be removed pronto. Before this incident, there were his bizarre entanglements with current District Attorney Kari Brandenburg.

Chief District Court Judge Ted Baca has apparently put on the same blinders the judges used when former Judge John Brennan was busted for coke possession six years ago. For years Brennan's colleagues ignored or covered up the judge's drug and alcohol abuse. Baca argues that Schwartz is "well-suited to sit as a judge." What? Maybe a judge for a beauty contest, Ted, but not the stuff you're elected to do.

The sex case could end up before the State Supreme Court. Can Chief Justice Charles Daniels keep a straight face if he upholds a slap on the wrist punishment recommended by a flaccid standards commission? Can the judiciary around here retain its credibility with Schwartz bobbing in and out of rehab and slapping courthouse hotties on the posterior?

Justice Daniels really needs to come to the rescue and put Judge Bob out of his misery and out of the public's life. Do you need the number for the Judicial Standards Commission, your honor?

SECRETARY OF CHAOS


It seems like that could be the new title of Secretary of State Mary Herrera. To the videotape:

A top official for the Secretary of State has been suspended in what his attorney is calling a retaliation for going to the F.B.I. with information on inner workings of Secretary of States office.


Deputy Secretary of State Francisco Trujillo says office manager Manuel Vildasol has been placed on leave for an unspecified personnel matter, but told Eyewitness News 4 that the suspension has nothing to do with Vildasol visiting the F.B.I.

THE BEAR MARKET

Another sign that the bear market is not giving up its grip on the ABQ metro. Five hundred jobs thought to be in store for Central and Coors at a planned Lowe's home improvement store are out the window. The national chain has decided not to open. They aren't saying why but its pretty obvious the lousy economy here played a part.

This is a blow for ABQ Mayor RJ Berry and City Council President Ken Sanchez.
Berry has been office for nine months, but has yet to get announce any major additions of jobs. City unemployment remains near nine percent, an unheard of level in the post WWII era. Sanchez represents the lower and middle class area which is commercially under served. He nurtures hopes to someday become mayor. This didn't help.

A CLOSE CALL

Not only was the city of Rio Rancho hoodwinked by the financials of GreenV2, the solar star-up that promised 1,500 jobs, but the state of New Mexico was being coaxed to put up $100 million dollars to help finance the deal. Reporter Rosalie Rayburn investigated. Fortunately, the request did not get past the gatekeepers at the State Investment Council.

How about this--the next governor of New Mexico freezes the investment of any of our state permanent funds in private business plans for a period of at least one year.

We have $14 billion in those funds, Santa Fe, and need to preserve and protect that money. Rapid growth is not the priority and neither is becoming the neighborhood bank with all the risk that entails. Wasn't the near-looting of our funds by hedge fund hucksters enough to get us off our keisters?

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(c)NM POLITICS WITH JOE MONAHAN 2010
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Wednesday, August 25, 2010

Large Martinez Lead In Mid-August Poll Revealed; Denish Has Hispanic Problem, Plus: Wanna Buy A Jet? And: Happy Birthday, Steve, Have A Waffle Cake 

GOP Guv hopeful Susana Martinez had a 12 point lead over Dem nominee Diane Denish in a mid-August automatic phone poll conducted for one of the statewide campaigns for another elected office, according to reliable Alligators. But Susana was below 50%, the point where a candidate starts to put a race away.

Martinez has consolidated the Republican vote and added to it a pile of independents. These groups are the ones expressing the most anger this cycle and have come home early. But Martinez is also benefitting from Hispanic support higher than usual for a GOP candidate.

Most of the undecided in the poll were women and Hispanics, groups that traditionally go Democratic. That's why despite the 12 point deficit Denish staffers have not been seen jumping out of windows. They see Denish as positioned to eventually pick up that vote.

Another tidbit from the poll. Harry Teague was running a couple of points ahead of Steve Pearce in the southern congressional race. Dem Rep. Teague, however, was not at 50%. He was doing well in Dona Ana County, the district's largest, which explains his lead. By the way, Martinez, even though Dona Ana is her home county, was not blowing the doors off there. Denish had a pretty good lead in the traditionally Dem area.

And more news from this poll. ABQ Dem US Rep. Martin Heinrich was running a couple of points behind Republican challenger Jon Barela, confirming a surprising trend first seen in the SurveyUSA poll taken in late July that had Barela leading 51% to 45%. Jon was not at 50% in this poll and we are told by insiders that his own internal polling shows the race to be about tied.

Top Dems remain confident of Heinrich's prospects, pointing out that he has now started TV ads while Barela has not and also has a large financial advantage. They are also taking comfort because this race also has a lot of undecided Hispanics and Democrats who usually lean Dem, but in this unsettled climate are on the fence. Still, the unknown Barela could not be running in a better year for Republicans. Let's see what he can do with the wind at his back.

The ABQ Journal is in the field this week and will come this Sunday with their first poll on the Governor's race to be followed by the congressional contests. It should do much to give us a clearer picture on where the big races stand at the Labor Day starting gate.

WHITE BREAD

Denish definitely has a white bread problem--she is a native of Hobbs in the SE and lacks a natural connection to northern Hispanics who have been instrumental in keeping the state Democratic.

Hispanic consultants are now telling us that it is too late for Denish to become well-liked in the north. They say she needs to use Hispanics running for lower elective offices such as county sheriff and assessor to carry water for her. That would mean hosting affairs for her at their homes and campaigning with her when she is in their areas.

Consultants, inside players and Alligators are now telling me that State Treasurer James Lewis and Attorney General Gary King are polling strongly in the north and could be used by Denish to make breakthroughs in the critical counties. They also urge deployment of area state legislators on Denish's behalf.

Denish, they say, suffers from an "approachability" problem in the north and it is also noted that no Hispanics are in the lieutenant governor's inner circle. Her campaign chairman is Ted Martinez, but he is an old school politico adept at fund-raising. She does have a Hispanic field director--Joseph Casados--who worked in the 2004 Kerry presidential effort.

Dem Lt. Governor nominee Brian Colon is not a native Hispanic, a point that was circulated widely in the Dem Light Guv primary. He is well-respected and liked by Dem Party types, but also lacks the longtime northern connection that can make a difference.

Martinez is performing well in the north in the polling. If she received 40% or more of the Hispanic vote it would be a superior performance and perhaps make her Governor. However, some experts say early Hispanic support for Martinez could be soft because she is only now being identified as a Republican. Also, some of that Hispanic support is based solely on her last name and could be turned as Hispanic Dem voters are told more about her.

The Denish campaign knows all of this and more. It is how they execute their northern Hispanic strategy that will be of critical importance in the closing two months of Campaign '10.

Denish's first negative TV attacks in June backfired. The ads had factual problems, but she also overreached. Denish's Hispanic base was not there and she was seen more as an Anglo woman attacking a Hispanic than as a possible future governor.

Denish is now treading carefully before unloading nuclear TV ads on Martinez. Her latest approach is to respond to Susana's negative attack and add a charge of her own, not initiate her own TV attack. We'll see what happens when we hit September.

NO FLY ZONE

GOP Guv candidate Susana Martinez is stepping on the populist pedal, coming with this billboard urging that the state's $5.5 million jet be sold to the highest bidder.

The jet and who flies on it has become a symbol for Republicans of wasteful state spending.

It kind of reminds us of 1994 when R Gary Johnson beat up on Dem Bruce King over an increase In the gas tax that Bruce supported.

Dem Diane Denish has also been getting more populist in her rhetoric, accusing Martinez of favoring "wealthy private schools" over the public system.

WAFFLE CAKE, ANYONE?

It's not only the R's coming with the graphics. Here's a "waffle cake" courtesy of the state Dems as they help former GOP Congressman Steve Pearce celebrate his 63rd birthday this week. The Dems are ribbing Steve over his waffling statements regarding partially privatizing Social Security.

But Pearce supporters say they expect to be the ones having their cake and eating it too, predicting that public polling to be released next week will show their man leading Dem US Rep. Harry Teague.

TAKE THE CAKE

We think the Dems have a better chance enticing voters with their waffle cake than they do with this second negative TV spot produced against Pearce by the Defenders of Wildlife Action Fund.

Of course, now that we said that Teague will probably move up ten points.

DEBATE BUMPS

Our Media Mavens report Guv contenders Denish and Martinez are still knocking heads over fall TV debates. None have yet been scheduled as the campaigns negotiate over details such as how late in the cycle they should be held.

All three Big Three affiliates--KOB, KRQE and KOAT--are expressing an interest in hosting a debate.

There is still plenty of time for posturing and we think we will end up getting some debates, but the intransigence over them.

A couple of months ago KKOB-AM radio asked me if there was cause for concern that there would not be that many joint appearances between Denish and Martinez. We answered that in the end we though there would be plenty,

We're beginning to wonder. We based our prediction on past experience covering Guv races the past several decades. Joint appearances at major event such as the Oil and Gas Association were taken for granted. In 1998, Gary Johnson and Dem Marty Chavez seemed to appear together on every street corner in ABQ. in 2006, Big Bill leading in the polls, refused to debate R John Dendahl, but we saw that as an anomaly. It would be a shame if there are only a handful of times we get to see Martinez and Denish together.

We aren't expecting a Lincoln-Douglas series from these two, but they owe us (and our democracy) more than a couple of cursory engagements.

ELEPHANT ON TOP?

As election forecasts grow ever more gloomy for Democrats, the R's are getting increasingly confident--and cocky. Here's a photo circulating on the net that drives the point home (no pun intended, really) and shows the Democratic donkey is definitely at the mercy of the Republican elephant.

Well, if only Republicans could have the election today. But the Dems say they are just getting started and the climax of Campaign 2010 will be in October, not August.

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(c)NM POLITICS WITH JOE MONAHAN 2010
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Tuesday, August 24, 2010

New Dem Spin: Di Trails But Susana Is Peaking Early, Plus: Heinrich Goes Local In TV Debut, And: The Berry Beat; Cop Shootings Force Mayoral Hand 

Democrats are bracing for a weekend ABQ Journal poll that many of them think will show Republican Susana Martinez leading Diane Denish by three to six points. But the late August poll being done this week and to be published Sunday is only the beginning. And now there is a new Democratic narrative popping up on the radar screens of La Politica--that Martinez and the R's will get their peak performance this week and that we are headed for a photo finish.

Attorney and former Gallup Mayor Bob Rosebrough, a Denish supporter, sums up this latest line on the must-watch race for Governor:

This is an intriguing race that is going to be as close as it can get at the end of the day--and I think it's all about timing. Susana has had timing completely on her side to this point but that is starting to change. Diane is generally well-liked around the state by independents and even some conservatives, but she has the misfortune of running during a severe economic downturn and at a time of great dissatisfaction with incumbents in general...


At first blush, Susanna is captivating: a successful, female, Hispanic district attorney who has won election in a Democratic stronghold. But as the campaign progresses, I see Susana running thin with independents out here. One independent friend asked me this morning, “Is it my imagination, or is there not much substance there?” Another commented that Susana’s hyper-aggressiveness may be well suited for a DA, but questioned how it would play over the course of four years as a governor. Simply put, time, which has been against Diane, is now on her side.

If the election were 30 days from now, Susana would win. If it were 120 days from now, Diane would win. But the election is 70 days out and, by then, it looks to me like it’s going to be a nail-biter.


A nail-biter? That's just the way we like them.

HEARD ON THE STREET

About Republican Susana Martinez pledging of no cuts to the public school budget or the Medicaid program:

Now I know how Susana Martinez beat the Democrats she ran against for district attorney in Dona Ana County--she became one.

Dem Diane Denish has also pledged not to cut any funds the public schools budget which makes up over 40% of the state budget. But Denish apparently has not made Medicaid one of her sacred cows. From the Politico:

Denish said she’d break from her current boss by make spending cuts everywhere but education.

Does that make Di more of a fiscal conservative than Susana? And what do all her liberal supporters think about that?

OTHER TRAIL STUFF

Susana doesn't seem to be having any trouble financing her message. She ended the June 1 primary with under $150,000 0n hand but her TV ads have been running with regularity. Insiders tell us she attended a mid-July Republican Governors Association meeting in Aspen that brought together Guv GOP candidates with top donors and she may have received commitments of up to $500,000.

The best Martinez TV ad so far? The one running now on education. It really strikes at the heart of what frustrates so many New Mexicans.

Susana's worst ad? The one that had Martinez surrounded by macho lawmen wearing protective vests and saying she was tough on crime. It scared the bejesus out of folks.

MORE TUBE ACTION

ABQ Dem US Rep. Martin Heinrich has come with his first TV spot of the cycle, and it sends a clear message--the freshman rep elected to serve in the US Congress hardly spends anytime there. That's right. He may have to go back to the dreaded banks of the Potomac and hold his nose, but "Martin's been home 82 0f the 85 weeks he's served in Congress."

As for Obamacare, Wall Street reform, the wars in Afghanistan and Iraq or the yawning budget deficit, well, they don't merit a mention in Martin's tube debut. What he does talk about is his own backyard:

He and has staff have helped over 1,800 people get things like veterans benefits or Social Security assistance...He helped small businesses to get the credit they need to hire more workers. And Martin’s fought to save a thousand jobs at Kirtland Air Force Base. Martin Heinrich: all New Mexico, all the time.

You bet "all New Mexico all the time." With an angry electorate ready to make any incumbent walk the plank, Martin is doing all he can to hold off the mob.

The ad's speed is accelerated and shows a peripatetic Heinrich dashing to and fro as the narrator details his busy schedule--but no mention of his voting record. That they will leave to Republican Jon Barela who is fast at work calling the first-termer a creature of the "far-left."

Actually, the congressman seems to have the wonkish temperament to become a successful legislator on the Hill. And if he makes it through this first re-election bid, we expect to see more of that side of him. But not this year and not in this fevered throw the bums out atmosphere. In this TV ad Heinrich reveals much more about the political climate than he does about himself.

HEINRICH VS. BARELA ANALYSIS
Rep. Heinrich
That Heinrich can come early with TV and we are still waiting for Barela speaks to the financial position of the contenders. Heinrich has a two to one advantage in that department.

A recent SurveyUSA poll shocked the political community when it showed the unknown Barela leading Heinrich 51% to 45%. Heinrich's own polling does not show such a tight race. The Journal poll to come next week will influence the contest. In the unlikely event Barela is ahead, it will rattle the Dems cage mightily and might force open the cash drawers for Barela.

Assessing what people who have had access to Barela's internal polling are telling us, it is more likely that the race will show a several point gap and probably in Heinrich's favor. The congressman remains the favorite but with pressure to run a top-notch campaign that was simply not present there three months ago.

THE BERRY BEAT

Speaking of lawmen, ABQ Mayor RJ Berry went in the bunker when we and others questioned the ninth police shooting of the year. But now that we've hit double digits--ten shootings with seven fatalities- Berry is out of the bunker and "has asked Public Safety Director Darren White to find an independent agency such as the Police Executive Research Forum to review trends in this year's shootings..."

Berry did not frame it as a possible problem with the department but said: "I want to know why our officers are being attacked..."

That's cool. Just don't let the problem fester, possibly exposing the city to costly lawsuits, the rumblings of which can already be heard. Whether we have an outbreak of nut cases attacking cops, police that are not being trained properly or other reasons, it's in the best interest of everyone to find out. That Berry is turning to a police group and not a civilian one will make some suspicious, but it is a start. If the shootings continue, an investigation that includes civilians will be forced upon the 11th floor.

We won't read too much into it, but it was refreshing to see Berry publicly give an order to his public safety director who has assumed more authority--without questioning--than anyone who ever previously occupied the post. We have a feeling that Berry is going to be riding herd more in that regard.

As we noted, Berry went bunker mentality when this issue first arose, but he is showing some flexibility and leadership that come with experience on the job. Those traits also tend to surface when you have the cases of 10 police shootings with seven dead on your desk--a number that easily surpasses what other cities of a similar size are experiencing.

PARSING PEARCE

That edited video we posted yesterday of GOP southern congressional candidate Steve Pearce getting a hard time from a voter over his position on Social Security came to us via the state Dems. The Pearce camp thought that that needed to be pointed out and we agree. However, there is no change in the evidence that Pearce did in the past support the partial privatization of the program.

WATCHING THE WATCHDOG

New Mexico Watchdog author Jim Scarantino says a post we had in our first draft Monday was all bark and no bite. He says our source who said he had been fired from a previous job by Congressman Martin Heinrich was in the dark:

I was not fired by the New Mexico Wilderness Alliance Board. Indeed, when I resigned I received a letter of commendation from the Chair of the Board. And Martin Heinrich was not on the Board at any time I served as the NMWA executive director. Instead, he worked for us as a lobbyist...As for "not holding a decent job since then," I'd point out I was a sole practitioner as an attorney and named the ACLU of New Mexico's Attorney of the Year in 2006 and I made enough money in my practice to retire from law quite early in life...

Scarantino recently reported on Rep. Heinrich upgrading his flying status to first class using frequent flier miles accumulated by his office. That's what started the email flow. We regret the error and are impounding our usually reliable source so he will no longer trip over the Watchdog.

FOOD FOR THOUGHT


We've all seen the columns after columns of ABQ area home foreclosures in the classified section. And it just keeps coming. The national housing debacle prompts this food for thought from Rick Wolff, writing for truthout.org:

The US housing industry's basic problem is the system in which it is embedded. The larger capitalist economy shapes the gap between the costs of privately produced homes and American workers' earnings. Over the last 75 years, US capitalism has bridged that gap by means of private credit guaranteed and/or subsidized by the government. This system provides incentives as well as opportunities for excessive home prices, diminished wages and salaries, and excessive quantities, risks, and costs of housing credit. The last 30 years have seen all three phenomena converge into a systemic crisis.

PORK IS GOOD

When we blogged about using even more unspent capital outlay money to plug the state's gargantuan budget shortfall, we weren't advocating that it be done, only pointing out that it was an option for the politicians. Well, even though Joe Craig of Craig & Co. in Los Ranchos was mistaken about our position, he did come with a strong defense against using that capital outlay money, proving once again that one man's pork is another man's pride and joy:

Joe, I am a faithful reader of your blog, but this one set me aback. You are advocating shoving the construction industry (along with the architectural and engineering design community) back into the Stone Age?

Our A/E/C industry is already on the ropes, the housing industry and real estate industries are dead in the water, architectural and engineering firms are laying off people and the construction industry is in the worst shape that I have seen it in my career.

The entire construction industry accounts for something like 40% of our economy and according to UNM the gross receipts that the industry generates is second only to the retail sector. Maybe you should be chatting with economist LarryWaldman at UNM about the implications of what you advocate.

The Federal stimulus monies are not reaching our industry and we desperately need an infusion of capital outlay from the state, counties and municipalities to keep this industry from tanking. The industry is being commoditized by mid-level procurement people that have found ways around the State Procurement Code to cheapen the design and construction side. The institutions that are supported by State money, that are driven by our taxes, regularly give work to out of state firms with only a pretense of being New Mexico firms.

There's $1 billion of unspent capital outlay with $90 million of it uncommitted, according to the Legislative Finance Committee. With the state economy still reeling lawmakers will be feeling increased pressure to get the shovels turning.

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Monday, August 23, 2010

How They're Hurting Harry; Boycott Of Rep's Biz Is Confirmed, And: Can Martin Phone Home? Also: Reader Blogging On Guv Debate 

Rep. Teague
Usually if they don't like you they just vote against you. But it has gone way beyond that for southern Dem Congressman Harry Teague. He confirms the rumors that his Hobbs-based energy businesses are being boycotted by fellow oil and gas types upset with his vote for cap and trade legislation. The boycott has been one of the major reasons Teague's personal wealth has plunged a startling 87 percent--from $40 million when he took office two years ago to now only $5 million, according to Teague's congressional disclosure forms.

Once again Politico leads the coverage on Teague's travails, coming with the fresh info as the paper spent time in the south for an in-depth look at Teague's uphill climb for re-election against Republican Steve Pearce. They report the boycott began in earnest last year with Teague's vote for cap and trade legislation that was despised by the oil and gas industry.

“Immediately, everybody quit using his businesses,” said Lance Wilbanks, the CEO of Wilbanks Trucking in Artesia, who said he thought it was “sleazy” that Teague’s company changed its name after the climate vote in attempt to hedge some of its losses.

Teague insisted that business has been slow around the region and wouldn’t say how much money he has lost at his company because of the climate vote. Nonetheless, he confirmed the threats from locals.

“There was a few individuals scattered around, tried to make a bigger issue out of it, to try to quit using us,” he said. “But we still pretty much worked for all the people that we work for.”


Teague is trying to play down the boycott, rumors of which have circulated for months but now only officially confirmed. It's true that the bear market in oil and gas contributed heavily to Teague's losses, but it's obvious the now out-in-the-open boycott played into Teague's financial misery in a big way. (Cap and trade passed the House but never got out of the Senate.)

What's stunning about the boycott of Teague's companies is the willingness of those doing it to go on the record. It really is quite unheard of. Even one prominent Republican businessman told Politico they thought it was over the top:

Don Kidd, a former Republican state senator and the CEO of the Western Commerce Bank in Carlsbad, disagreed with Teague’s vote on the climate bill. But he said that doesn’t excuse locals for cutting their business ties with Teague, which he estimates have cost the congressman about $15 million.“I think it’s one of the most low-rent things I’ve ever heard of,” Kidd said.


Going after a fella's livelihood because of a vote he took in DC doesn't reflect the neighborliness that southern New Mexico prides itself on. But today's hardball, take-no-prisoners-politics knows no boundaries.

SIDEBAR


Our Senior Alligators have argued that Teague's vote on cap and trade--aka "climate change" was not in and of itself disastrous. They argued he would take the biggest hit for it in the SE oil counties but could actually benefit from it in the district's largest county--Dona Ana. They say the election will be decided by two factors. How big of a beating will Teague take in counties like Eddy, Chaves, Lea and Lincoln? And how much will he win in Dona Ana which he needs to make up for the SE losses?

THE PEARCE BUNKER

Former Congressman Steve Pearce sold his energy related company for millions several years ago so the Dems can't respond with a boycott of their own, but they can stop Steve from dancing in the streets over Harry's woes and remind him of some of his own. For example, it seems Steve just can't bring himself to admit that he once was in favor of partially privatizing Social Security.

It's all over the record and we covered the flip-flop in March when his campaign came with a statement against privatizing, but now Pearce is apparently back at it again--telling KKOB radio August 20 that he was never for privatization. There is also this video from Alamogordo where Pearce tries to get around his privatization stance but is challenged by an audience member.

Pearce now joins GOP Guv candidate Susana Martinez in refusing to admit they have switched positions even when confronted with forensic evidence. In Martinez's case, her past stance for traditional school vouchers--she calls them tax credits--is documented on video and by the Associated Press which called her out on it in last week's coverage of the first Guv debate.

That candidates are now simply ignoring the record and attempting to create an alternative reality has an Alice in Wonderland feel. In the old days, you just admitted you had a change of heart or had some spin on why things had changed. In that respect, they really were the good old days.

JOURNAL POLL COMING

Will the constant chatter emanating from GOP circles that Republican Susana Martinez is significantly ahead in the 2010 Guv race be verified when the ABQ Journal comes with its first poll of the contest this Sunday?

That's the question uppermost on the minds of the politicos as Brian Sanderoff, the paper's veteran pollster, prepares to go into the field this Tuesday. We could get a Rasmussen or other survey this week as well, but the Journal's surveys--which really get into the state's political DNA--are most closely watched.The paper will also poll the state's congressional races and major issues.

Media insiders say it appears the Journal will come with a total of three polls on the Guv's race this cycle. That's one more than they have been doing in recent elections.

Meanwhile, as coverage of the campaign by the state's largest newspaper gets meatier, Dems remain suspicious. They see the Journal as taking a hard swing to the right in recent years, and they know how much the editors have been down on Big Bill and the corruption that infiltrated his administration. They took heart that Republican Martinez was put through the wringer on the paper's news and editorial pages for a sweetheart contract deal she handed out at the Dona Ana County district attorney's office.

The paranoid types say that the paper can now say it did tough coverage of Susana and will now take it easy on her in the stretch. We'll see, but we're more concerned that the New Mexico public has been given very limited personal information about these candidates--especially Martinez who is being touted as possibly the first female Hispanic governor in American history. Will the forthcoming profiles be comparable to ones done in the past? They need to be.

BILL ON THE MOVE

And what's this? Big Bill on his way to Havana for a week and with a Washington Post op-ed published Sunday to kick things off? Nothing like a little international travel from the onetime diplomat to buff that public image. And with the Journal polling his approval rating this Tuesday, it's right on time. But Bill didn't know that, did he?

In his op-ed piece the Guv calls for improved USA relations with all of Latin America which he says have been damaged by the argument over that tough anti-immigrant law passed by Arizona. The Guv also mentions the disaster that is Mexico:

We need a hemispheric accord on crime and violence. In New Mexico, we are working with law enforcement at the local, state and federal levels and on both sides of our border with Mexico to share intelligence and stop the illicit trade of narcotics, illegal guns and human trafficking. These are transnational issues that involve a coordinated effort to protect the safety of law-abiding citizens of the United States and Mexico.

Richardson is not going to get much credit in the history books for how he handled Mexico during his eight years as Guv. He started out with fanfare in 2003, before the country was taken over by the narco-terrorists, but there has been little said from the state's Fourth Floor since then about the out of control nation. The promise that Bill held out for improved trade and relations with Mexico has been overpowered by the narcocracy.

As for Cuba, Bill calls for lifting most of the travel ban to the island nation. Remember the speculation last August when he also visited Cuba? It was thought he might get named by Obama as a special Cuban envoy which would have had him leaving here and making Diane Denish governor without an election.

Hey, with Bill gone this week, it means Lt. Gov. Denish is Acting Governor. Maybe she'll issue an executive order banning the issuance of driver's licenses to illegals? Well, maybe next time.

BACK TO THE HITS

After more than a month of positive stuff, the TV ads for the Guv candidates are back on the negative. Late last week Martinez started blasting Denish and what she said was the state's 49th ranking in education. Now Denish is up with a new ad labeling Martinez a "Republican politician" and nailing her for supporting school vouchers which Denish says would benefit the wealth at the expense of the middle class.

CAN MARTIN PHONE HOME?

Can you get cell reception in the Jemez Mountains? That became a burning question among some of our readers friendly to ABQ US Rep. Martin Heinrich. A Heinrich staffer told us last week that Martin could not give immediate comment to the newspaper on the controversial Mosque near Ground Zero question because he "was camping with his son" in the Jemez.

Talk radio accused Heinrich of ducking comment, even though he did issue a statement several days later saying he thought the R's were trying to stir up fear. Reader Juan Carlos Holmes says Heinrich deserves the benefit of the doubt because cell service is not available in some of the Jemez:

Honestly, I've never had any luck; I get zero reception up there. I'm on T-Mobile, and I've known people on other networks with the same issues. I know some folks on AllTel that can get reception as far as Jemez Springs, but that's about it. Once you hit all the campgrounds, which are mostly past the Hot Springs and up around the La Cueva/Fenton area, you get nothing.

And Inez Russell from the New Mexican writes:

I was just up there doing a story for Indian Market magazine; and guess what, they don't, in many places, have cell phone coverage. And that's on the road. I can only imagine how awful it is back in the woods..That's the beauty of New Mexico --we still have places not accessible 24/7...

Well, those are some good excuses for the congressman, but they didn't prevent him from taking multiple hits on the radio and among newspaper readers who wonder why he alone among the state's delegation was not available for comment.It sure seemed like he may have made a decision to try to avoid addressing the sticky matter.

Whatever the case, we have a feeling future camping trips will involve a new communications plan.

VOTE OFTEN

A note to all you aspiring politicos in your 20's and 30's--make sure you vote---and in every election:

Democrat Diane Denish claimed Republican Susana Martinez's...said that Martinez did not vote in 2003 in a statewide special election in which voters narrowly approved a constitutional amendment to allow the state to take more money from its permanent fund to pay for education.

Checking Martinez's voting history at the secretary of state's website appears to verify that there is no record of Martinez voting in that election. Martinez did not respond to that charge in the debate...

ABOUT THAT DEBATE...

Blog reader Raul Fierro weighs in on last week's first Guv debate with more than one provocative thought. Here he comes:

Joe, Felt like fight night! Like you, I'm an independent...My take is Martinez wins by a majority decision. No one got knocked down or out but I think human nature (and the judges) tends to favor the scrappier fighter (at least in boxing, but then politics is a full contact sport, right?).

Was Martinez angry? You bet. But so are a lot of voters (Obama understood that well)...

Denish's wonkiness on school vouchers was "red meat" to her constituency but wasn't matched with enough "toma" (in your face) to make much of a difference. I personally know a lot of parents that aren't happy with their public schools and are scraping to send their kids to private schools...

...The insiders and early campaign watchers in this one are mostly of the political class and seem to be missing what the mainstream public (that don't have a megaphone) are saying...

The GOP is screwing itself with extremist politics but Martinez has put distance between herself and that wing of the party. All politics is local. Like you guys are saying, both candidates have moved to the center.

Immigration you say? Born and raised here dood and I'm telling you NM Hispanics (registered voters that is) aren't that kindly to our Southern primos, especially when they're not behaving and the economy sucks...

A lot of Dems (Hispanic and white social conservatives) I know are fed up with the arrogance (as Martinez aptly put it in the debate) and corruption of the state Dem elites. They're either not gonna vote or they're gonna vote Martinez to shake things up. And a lot of NM Latinas (and Latinos)...can't wait to vote for America's first Latina Governor.

Thanks, Raul. We'll catch you after the next debate.

This is the home of New Mexico politics.

Email your news and comments. Interested in advertising here? Drop us a line.

(c)NM POLITICS WITH JOE MONAHAN 2010
Not for reproduction without permission of the author

 
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