New Mexico Politics with Joe Monahan

Readers Get In On Dem Preprimary Aftermath, Plus: A Boat Load Of Campaign Action As Legislative Jockeying Continues

2012-03-12T01:00:00.000-06:00

Balderas & Mother at preprimary

The spin spilleth over. Reaction to Saturday's Democratic Party preprimary convention filled the Facebook and Twitter pages as well as our old fashioned e-mail box. We chipped in our analysis on a weekend blog below and complete convention results are here. Now to that email...

Eric Griego's eight point win in delegate support in the ABQ congressional race over ABQ Mayor Marty Chavez and an even larger margin over Michelle Lujan Grisham had this Chavez sympathizer arguing that the June primary results will not mimic those at the convention:

Democratic Party insiders are suffering from Marty fatigue and are engaging is a whisper campaign about his significant other and the beneficiary is Eric Griego. It looks troublesome for Marty now but when rank and file Democrats vote in the primary the outcome will likely be different. Marty was a middle of the road leader who was a good mayor in spite of an abrasive personality. Griego's environmentalist appeal may not hold with voters whose concern with KAFB and Sandia National Lab jobs motivates their voting choice.

Chavez's girlfriend, Loretta Mares, was recently indicted on embezzlement related charges and some observers feel it may have played a role in his defeat at the hands of Griego.

DI'S TAKE

Former Lt. Governor Diane Denish, a backer of US Senate candidate Hector Balderas, is doing her best to paint Hector's nearly 10 point loss at the convention to Rep. Martin Heinrich as a game-changer--for Balderas:

Hector exceeded all expectations. He went up against an opponent boasting a 20 point polling lead as well as a 3-1 lead in financial resources. Hector's ability to personally connect and tell his NM story was one of the only times the preprimary crowd was silent and listening. This incredible showing for Hector will earn him a second look from even Heinrich supporters as well as others, and Hector supporters are more energized and proud than ever....

No all agreed with Denish's assessment. For example, this reader dissed the Balderas campaign for calling his loss a "phenomenal" performance:

Only Hector would characterize a loss as phenomenal. With former Democratic Party Chairman Brian Colon running his campaign he should have won the preprimary. It is the party Brian built.

The Balderas campaign posted their candidate's preprimary speech on YouTube.

And then there are those playing both sides of the fence in the Dem Senate race:

I will vote for Hector because I am so disgusted with war mongering Heinrich and so will my friends. We just aren’t broadcasting our choice. I have given money to Heinrich but am keeping silent about not supporting him in the voting booth, just in case. Covering my bases, why not?

CAMPAIGN ACTION

If there's one thing the camp of outgoing Speaker Ben Lujan is determined to avoid, it's having political upstart Carl Trujillo replace him in his Santa Fe County state House seat. And they may have a good start on it. In a surprise announcement, Santa Fe Mayor David Coss says he will seek the seat held by Lujan who was forced into retirement by lung cancer. This presents a major obstacle to Trujillo who almost became a giant killer when he lost to Lujan in the June 2010 primary by less than 90 votes. But Coss is well-known and will be well-financed. And if the field is Trujillo with Coss as the major name--as seems likely--the speaker will throw his weight behind the mayor.

Not that Trujillo need back off. He has some ammo to use against Coss. The city of Santa Fe is anything but a bed of roses these days. Real estate values continue their slow-motion crash, employment is lousy, tax collections remain anemic because of the lousy economy and property crime continues to spike. Besides arguing that Coss is part of the Lujan political "machine," Trujillo will ask, why voters would want Coss to split his time between two jobs. The answer should be entertaining.

MORE EL NORTE

Keeping it in the north, State Senator Phil Griego may have just been dealt a break. Former Santa Fe County Commissioner Jack Sullivan, 69, is joining the Dem primary race to take out Griego, He joins Nicole Castellano in the contest. But could the two of them split the anti-Griego vote giving Phil the primary win? Griego is nothing if not crafty and has survived a number of political perils in his sprawling district over the years. He may be set up to survive yet another.

IN THE CITY

Back here in River city, no one is going to argue that ABQ Dem west side State Senator Bernadette Sancehez is an easy target, but Jacob Candelaria, her freshly minted Dem primary opponent has come with some fire and brimstone that may catch voter attention. Sanchez, seeking a fourth, four year term, was an ardent supporter of the dreaded food tax, despite coming from a low income district. She lost the battle when a reinstatement of the tax was vetoed in 2010. Candelaria comes out swinging on that and also those big income tax breaks for the wealthy that many Dems fell in love with under Big Bill:

I support rolling back the 2003 state tax give-away to those making over $250,000 a year, and instead using that money to provide tax relief for hard working families who continue to struggle in this economy...I oppose the anti-family, regressive state tax on food. In 2010, at the height of the recession when working families began to face record high levels of unemployment and home foreclosure, Bernadette Sanchez sponsored and championed a bill that would tax their food...There is a clear choice in this race between someone who will be on the side of working families, and someone that is not. As senator, I will proudly stand with working families.

Candelaria heads up Equality New Mexico, an advocacy group for gays, lesbians and transgenders, but it's his economic argument that catches the eyes, given how debate over income tax policy has come to a screeching halt in the Senate. A conservative coalition of Dems and R's holds forth there. Maybe candidates like Candaleria can get the Democratic Party debate going again?

One other note for those of you new to the scene. The sister of Sen. Sanchez is Agnes Maldonado, a major backer of GOP Guv Martinez who has a management job at NM Expo and has been closely associated with the Guv's political action committee--SusanaPAC. It's another of those connections you need to know as you navigate the long and winding political road around here.

GOODBYE, DAVID CHAVEZ

David Chavez, you are busted. For quirkiness. A Senior Alligator reported to us a couple of weeks ago that the unpredictable Valencia County first-term GOP State Representative would not seek re-election to his seat, but as soon as the digital ink is dry, he phones in and says it's not so, that he is indeed running, It was a very rare correction of a Senior Gator (Qualifications: minimum age 45 years;, 20 years of experience in La Politica and (optionally) having sought elective office) But it turns out that Chavez apparently did not want to be scooped by us. Now he comes out and announces that he is indeed calling it quits and will not seek a second term. Just as we told you.

Chavez heads out the door with his quirky reputation intact. He complains about the compensation for legislators, saying the per diem and the limited pension they get is not enough. Chavez is in private law practice and also complains that the time he spent serving in the Legislature was cutting into his business. But he knew all that when he ran, didn't he? After all, his father, the late Democratic political legend Tibo Chavez, was a state senator.

David Chavez, for crossing a Senior Alligator, you are hereby banned from attending all Matanzas for a period of five years and will no longer be allowed to kiss Governor Martinez's ring when it is offered.

As for the Chavez seat, with no incumbent now in the contest maybe former Dem State Rep. Andrew Barreras, who Chavez ousted in 2010, has a better chance? Maybe, but he was ethically challenged on a tax delinquency issue last time. Republican businesswoman Kely Fajado is the new R hope for the district that performs about 50-50 between the two parties, but might lean Dem in a presidential election year.

MICHAEL'S STANDING

While we are in Valenica County, what about State Senate Majority Leader Michael Sanchez? The aforementioned Chavez was recruited as a possible R foe for Sanchez but will take a pass. So that leaves Governor Martinez without a high-profile name to take on her #1 Roundhouse foe. Sanchez of Belen, brother of former NM House Speaker Raymond Sanchez, has come into his own as leader with Martinez as his foil. The Guv says he has single-handedly killed a number of her priorities. Of course, Sanchez beams like the father of a newborn when he hears that talk. His district is even more Dem friendly under the new boundaries so even with money and a good candidate, Sanchez appears positioned to return to Santa Fe and keep putting the needle in Susana's side.

LINCOLN DAY

It's that time of year for the NM GOP:

The Republican Party of New Mexico Cordially invites you to the 2012 Lincoln Day Dinner. For a conversation on the future of our country, how Western issues are critical to the 2012 elections and what is at stake for our families depending on the outcome of the November elections. With Congressional & Senate Western Caucus Leaders; Congressman Steve Pearce, Chairman, House Western Caucus; Wyoming Senator John Barrasso, Chairman of the Senate Republican Policy Committee; Saturday March 17 at the ABQ Crowne Plaza Hotel; Individual Tickets $150/ Please RSVP by Monday, March 12th to Heather Hall at (505) 298-3662 or hhall@gopnm.org.

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E-mail your news and comments. (jmonahan@ix.netcom.com)

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Griego Preprimary Win Over Chavez Sets Him Up As Front-Runner For June Primary, Balderas Loses To Heinrich But Scores Enough To Stay Alive; Our Preprimary Analysis Is Up Next

2012-03-10T20:29:00.003-07:00

Eric Griego

Eric Griego has set himself up as the undisputed front-runner for the Democratic nomination for the ABQ congressional seat and Hector Balderas appears to have enough gas in the tank to continue his uphill challenge to US Rep. Martin Heinrich for the Dem nod for the open US Senate seat. Those are the chief conclusions from a long and drawn out day at the Democratic Party preprimary convention in downtown ABQ Saturday.

Voting results from the nearly 1700 delegates were not released until early Saturday evening but when they were, it was the Griego triumph over former ABQ Mayor Marty Chavez and Bernalillo County Commissioner Michelle Lujan Grisham that drew the most attention. State Senator Griego took it by eight points, garnering 41% of the delegate support in the 1st congressional district which is mainly Bernalillo Count to a disappointing 33 percent for Chavez. Lujan Grisham's late-starting bid received 26%, matching expectations, but still leaving her far behind freshly minted front-runner Griego.

Griego called it an organizational triumph and it was hard to argue with him. Republican analyst Bruce Donisthorpe said the results show the nominating wing of the Dem Party is clearly behind the liberal Griego and he is now the clear favorite to win the June primary.

"We said he could have a break away day and he did. It is his to lose now," analyzed Donisthorpe a 30 year veteran of state politics.

One of our Alligators offered a stop Griego strategy, saying if Chavez got out of the race and tossed his support to Lujan Grisham it could alter the character of the contest.

As for the Senate race, our Thursday blog reported expectations that if Heinrich could somehow come up with 60 percent of the vote against State Auditor Balderas he might force him from the fray. But it was not to be. Martin scored 55% to 45% for Hector and the campaign goes on. Still, Heinrich retains superiority and remains the likely winner unless Hector can improve his fund-raising. What Dems have to worry about now is a a negative campaign erupting between the two, one that would help probable GOP Senate nominee Heather Wilson.

In other contests, northern Dem Congressman Ben Ray Lujan stopped challenger Harry Montoya dead in his tracks, Lujan received 92% of the delegate support in the northern district, with Montoya getting 8 percent. It takes 20 percent to get an official spot on the ballot, so Montoya will have to file additional petition signatures if he hopes to keep his long shot challenge alive,

In the race for the open seat on the NM Court of Appeals, Judge Monica Zamora bested Judge Victor Lopez. Both won spots on the ballot but Zamora overwhelmed Lopez 63% to 37%.

In the southern congressional district Evelyn Madrid Erhard received 88% delegate support in the south to 12 percent for Frank McKinnon. Likely June primary winner Madrid Erhard would be facing GOP US Rep. Steve Pearce.

Long-winded speeches were cited as the primary culprit in slowing the preprimary to a snail's pace, but party officials said enthusiasm was high and they declared the event a success in spite of the late vote counting.

(c)NM POLITICS WITH JOE MONAHAN 2012
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Parsing With Pearce: Capitol Hill Visit Includes An Hour Of Verbal Volleyball With GOP Congressman On Key New Mexico Matters

2012-03-09T01:00:00.002-07:00

On the Hill with Pearce

Steve Pearce turns 65 this summer, but there's no fishing hole or rocking chair in his future. In fact, Pearce is as fiery as ever as we discovered when we visited the southern New Mexico Republican congressman on Capitol Hill recently. We played an hour long game of fast-paced verbal volleyball with him, bouncing from the banking crisis to the Spaceport to the funding crisis in the federal labs, especially Los Alamos. When all was said and done we wondered aloud if the passionate Pearce was setting himself up for another run at the US Senate in 2014 or perhaps someday for Governor.

"We only think two years ahead," he quipped. "We're seeking re-election this year and when it comes to politics that's what we will concentrate on."

It was a deeply dejected Pearce who walked away from the podium on Election Night 2008. Dem Tom Udall scored a landslide win over the Hobbs conservative who conquered the world of private enterprise by building and selling an oil service business, but was thwarted in the pursuit of a cherished political dream.

Still, if Steve Pearce is bitter, you would never know it. During a break in a hearing of the House Committee on Financial Services we threw fastball questions at Pearce and he fielded them with rat-a-tat responses that revealed the experience he has accumulated in his stints in the US House, first from 2003-2009 and then back again starting in 2011.

His voting record is the 36th most conservative out of the 435 US House members, according to National Journal rankings, but while others may see him as doctrinaire, Pearce does not. "I know you guys (the media) call me conservative but that's not the whole picture." he declared.

Pearce has a point. Coming at him from an independent point of view we found a number of areas of agreement as we got down to business and updated his views on a range of issues in a tiny anteroom adjacent to the grander committee room.

Pearce says the GOP has "got the tone all wrong" when it comes to immigration. He did not directly tackle Governor Martinez's obsession with the repeal of driver's license for undocumented immigrants, but you could tell he was not pleased that this has come to top the state's social issue agenda.

He has supported legislation to make it easier for businesses in the rural and agricultural district south if I-40 to attract immigrant labor and has hammered away at border security as well. But he has not burst into emotional flames over illegal immigration. For Pearce it's all business, nothing personal.

His hearty support of the NM Spaceport is welcome by voters of all stripes--he pointed out a framed thank you note on his Washington office wall that he received from Virgin Galactic chief Richard Branson. Pearce praised the project during Spaceport America dedication ceremonies last year.

Pearce, who served as an Air Force pilot in the Vietnam era, sees the futuristic project near T or C as a major employment driver for his district. When the Legislature failed to approve an immunity bill for the Spaceport, he took to the op-ed pages to blast the trial lawyers for killing it.

Governor Martinez stalled in supporting the Spaceport when she became governor but since has warmed up. Still, the inability of the administration to get a bill through the Legislature is worrisome. She gets another shot--maybe her last--in the 2103 session. And while Pearce takes pains now to support the Spaceport, the congressional delegation has not been seen working as a whole to support the project, even as other states begin competing for space business.

MIXED MESSAGE

Pearce's office seems to have some mixed messages on funding for Los Alamos and Sandia Labs, arguing that there are efficiencies that can be made to save money but continuing to maintain that they are vital to the national security. It's the Tea Party in Pearce that you can't take out of him (he is a member of the Tea Party Caucus). He warns that other states will continue to covet the high-paying jobs the labs generate and that keeping them will require"fighters" in the state's congressional delegation. He does not see the current Demociratic Senators--Bingaman and Udall--as falling into that category, even as he is careful to praise them personally. Asked if probable 2012 GOP US Senate nominee Heather Wilson--who Pearce beat in the divisive 2008 GOP Senate primary--could be that "fighter," he replied, "Maybe."

That's when we wondered if Pearce himself might make another run at the Senate in '14 when he would be 67.

PEARCE THE POPULIST

That powerful House Committee On Financial Services is Pearce's baliwick. He does not sit on other standing committees. The ongoing financial crisis has put him in the catbird's seat and Pearce is decidedly "Main Street" not Wall Street. It's a small-town populist approach that he says calls for holding the big bankers "accountable"and it goes back to his 2008 vote against the bailout of the banks which won him praise outside of his usual political circle. The way he railed against the sins of Wall Street during our sit down, we offered that he and his 2012 Dem opponent--Evelyn Madrid Erhard--might actually agree on the matter. "We might," Pearce deadpanned in response.

But don't get the idea that having some common ground with others means Pearce still doesn't have his famous edge and penchant for throwing out the red meat. He gives full-throated attacks against the "unreasonable enviornmentalists" who he sees as impeding economic progress in the mining and agricultural developments that are mainstays in his sprawling district. And his defense of the oil industry--the 500 pound economic gorilla of southern New Mexico--remains unabashed.

It is his conservative--some say ultra-conservative side--that endears him to much of his district while putting off voters in the other two congressional districts. It was his inability to bridge that gap that led to his 2008 Senate defeat and it remains his chief challenge in broadening his power base.

Since he made his comeback and reclaimed his House seat by ousting one term Dem Rep. Harry Teague in 2010, Pearce has set a peripatetic pace. He has visited the district repeatedly and broadened his message in intensity and propensity. His new position as chairman of the Congressional Western Caucus gives him the potential for a wider audience. His hiring of Capitol Hill heavy Todd Willens as his chief of staff is seen as guiding this change as well as taming some of Pearce's gruffer instincts, ensuring he does not become isolated from the political mainstream.

Being in the GOP majority in the US House surely energizes Pearce and engenders some bigger thinking. But for now he must await the outcome of the US Senate race and the fate of his old rival Heather Wilson. When the dust settles in November Pearce will then look about. He can complete his career as an engaged and driven member of the US House or take a gamble and again go for the more lasting impact that comes with ascension to the statewide stage.

This is the home of New Mexico politics.

Thanks for stopping by this week. Reporting from Albuquerue, I'm Joe Monahan.

E-mail your news and comments. (jmonahan@ix.netcom.com)

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(c)NM POLITICS WITH JOE MONAHAN 2012

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Expectations Game For Dem Preprimary: Can Heinrich Muscle Hector? Griego Looks To Make Move On Marty & Michelle, Plus: Honoring Edward Lujan

2012-03-08T00:59:00.024-07:00

Can Martin Heinrich put away Hector Balderas? Can Eric Griego have a break away day? Those are the questions at the top of the list for politics watchers preparing for that ultimate insider event--this Saturday's Dem Party preprimary convention.

It's a lot of insider baseball but it can have a major impact on a campaign's momentum and fund-raising. Take that race for the Dem nod for the US Senate seat between Rep. Heinrich and Balderas. Both are expected to easily win 20% of the delegates needed to win an official spot on the June primary ballot, but can Heinrich win 60% or more of the vote and thus put pressure on Balderas to drop his candidacy?

Hector's fund-raising is anemic and our insiders say he did not appear to show much muscle at the Bernalillo County Dem ward meetings--the prelude to the preprimary. If his delegate share does not put him within shouting distance of Heinrich, pressure will grow on him to get out and clear the way for Heinrich.

(On the R side, Lt. Governor John Sanchez dropped his bid when his campaign headed south, sparing likely nominee Heather Wilson a major challenge. Greg Sowards remains in that race. The GOP preprimary convention will be held March 17).

Insiders say while Heinrich is the heavy favorite among Bernalillo county delegates, Hector is expected to do well in northern counties like Taos and Dona Ana in the south. If he scores an unexpected surge and can then turn that into fund-raising prowess, the Senate race could be redefined. But if Heinrich comes with a big win, his camp will have a valid case that the Dems should avoid a potentially divisive primary and clear the path for him. In return, Hector, serving his second term as state auditor, can perhaps broaden his support for a future political run.

THE HOUSE SIDE

Rarely has the Dem nomination for the ABQ congressional seat been more valuable. With Obama expected to come with a big win in November in the ABQ area and our R's sources here and in Washington indicating the R'S are not keen on putting up a major fight to keep the seat, the three Dem candidates are pumped.

The expectations for Saturday's preprimary? They've shifted. At first, former ABQ Mayor Marty Chavez was seen as the default winner simply because of his superior name ID and long party involvement which could help activate an organization. But his long-standing troubles with the liberal Dem base and the indictment of his former live-in girlfriend on embezzlement charges has the insiders saying that State Sen. Eric Griego has a shot at taking first place. Bernalillo County Commissioner Michelle Lujan Grisham, joining the race later in the game, has always been seen as a third place preprimary finisher and still is. All three candidates are expected to get the 20 percent of the delegates needed to get an official spot on the June ballot.

Griego is an unabashed liberal in a year when that is very much in style with the Dem activists. Chavez has always been more popular with moderate and conservative Dems. His endorsement from Clinton was a good get, but it is Obama backers who are driving the narrative and that is where Griego is scoring.

None of the three candidates has packed much punch in the fund-raising department. A break away preprimary win by one of them--not really expected--could attract cash.

With this nomination so valuable, expect all three candidates to keep charging ahead for the nomination no matter what happens Saturday.

GET THAT 20

If a candidate at the preprimary does not get 20% of the delegates, they can still score a spot on the June ballot by gathering additional petition signatures. However, no candidate who has failed to reach 20% at the preprimary has ever won the party's nomination for the office they sought.

RHONDA RIDES OUT

Dem State Rep. Rhonda King of the legendary New Mexican political family will not seek re-election to her Santa Fe County seat. The seat has been in the family for decades, including in the hands of the late former Governor Bruce King and his son, Attorney General Gary King. Rhonda, a conservative Dem and owner of Rhonda King Realty in Stanley, has held it since 1999. She is a niece of the late Governor. The R's think they have a shot now that the well-known King is headed toward the exits. The reason she's leaving?:

I want to spend more time with my family, including my young daughter. I also look forward to continuing my service to the community, particularly my work on the Tri-County Juvenile Justice Board which provides programs to help improve the lives of youth in our communities.

Like a Senior Alligator told us, the new slogan for Santa Fe and the Legislature is: "It's just not fun anymore."

WHAT WE LEARNED

What did we learn from this week's muni elections in the state? Well, the pressure of the Bear Market continues to be felt in Santa Fe as voters watching their wallets refused to approve a bond issue for buildings and equipment for the police and fire departments. (They did approve the other bonds). And we also learned that Governor Martinez should immediately begin negotiations with Mexico to cede to them the border town of Sunland Park.

DOWN AND DIRTY?

The Independent Source PAC, a union-backed group watchdogging the Martinez administration, has its teeth in that Downs at ABQ lease deal approved by the state and is nipping again. They sent this off to the FBI:

We have developed...additional information...that raises further questions about the propriety of the awarding of the billion-dollar plus Racino contract. Andrea Goff, Susana PAC’s (Governor Martinez’s political committee run by Jay McCleskey) main fundraiser, turns out to be the daughter-in-law and business partner of State Fair Commissioner Kenneth “Buster” Goff. Andrea Goff was raising money for Susana PAC months before Martinez appointed Buster Goff to the State Fair Commission.

It appears this relationship between fundraiser Andrea Goff and Governor Martinez factored into Buster Goff’s appointment to the commission. As you may recall, Buster Goff was provided the unique ability to alter the terms of the lease allowing him to support the contract after having publicly opposed the contract. It was Buster Goff who cast the tie-breaking vote that awarded the contract to the Downs at Albuquerque...

That's the type of stuff you are used to seeing in the newspaper, but things have changed.

PORK WATCH

The Guv signed the capital outlay bill Wednesday, making a point about waste but not depriving the state of a needed shot in the arm from the construction projects in the measure. She vetoed $23 million of the pet projects approved by the legislators, but the bill approved still provides $122 million. A separate bond package will go to the voters to decide in November. It totals $139 million.

Those are pretty solid numbers, but we could double them given that the state ranks last in the nation in construction employment. We're sure the Guv has been hearing from the biz community about keeping the capital dollars flowing. Shaving $22 million makes the point that the capital outlay process needs reform, but doesn't throw the baby out with the bath water.

HONORING EDWARD

National Hispanic Cultural Center Foundation President Clara Apodaca checks in with this news regarding longtime ABQ business executive and former NM GOP Chairman Edward Lujan:

The National Hispanic Cultural Center Foundation is hosting "An Evening at the National Hispanic Cultural Center With Virginia & Edward Lujan" on May 24. The night will include a special production highlighting the Center’s five programs. Dinner co-chairs are Sherman McCorkle and Ambassador Ed Romero...

Lujan, who built the family insurance business into a state powerhouse, is now 79 and still going strong. He was a key player in starting the cultural center. We ran into him at Barelas Coffee House where he was having a friendly lunch with Apodaca, the Democratic first lady of NM from '75 to '78.

There's always bipartisanship when they trot out the enchiladas....

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E-mail your news and comments. (jmonahan@ix.netcom.com)

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Kari Vs. Jennifer: Upcoming Dem DA Battle Sure To Grab Spotlight, Plus: More On GOP Senate Plotting, And: Bear Market Clears Traffic In Farmington

2012-03-07T00:59:00.022-07:00

Brandenburg Vs. Romero
You want hot and heavy primary action? Well, pull up a chair and a bag of popcorn and join us on the campaign trail for the battle for Bernalillo County district attorney. Kari Brandenburg, seeking a fourth, four year term as DA, is preparing a spirited defense against an aggressive challenge being mounted by Jennifer Romero. Insiders say the preliminary sparring has already started behind the scenes and that there's no love lost between the two contenders.

Romero, 39, a native of Santa Fe and a UNM School of Law grad, is a former public defender with eight years under her belt, She has since returned Io private practice as a defense lawyer. Brandenburg is the heavyweight who has been down this road before. She faced off in a bitter duel against Republican Lisa Torraco four years ago and won.

Romero's team says they will come after Brandenburg hard and try to paint her as an ineffective DA who has not been forced to explain her record. It will be that same record that Brandenburg vigorously defends. And Kari has the personal financial strength to do it. Romero not so much. And that could be a big difference. Still, a Dem primary featuring one Anglo and one Hispanic is always one to watch. They can get close fast. No other candidates have signaled an interest in joining the fray and no name Republicans have yet emerged. That's fine. We probably have all we can handle in watching the show Kari and Jennifer are going to deliver.

SENATE PLOTTING
Sen. Ingle
Is State Senate Minority Leader Stuart Ingle vulnerable to being couped from his leadership post by fellow Republicans who are more closely aligned with the Governor and her political team? It has been the subject of ongoing speculation here since the Guv's operatives made clear they more or less forced GOP Senator Clint Harden out by threatening to primary him. Some of the Gators think Stu could be ripe for the plucking but others--including this Senior Alligator in Santa Fe--says not so fast:

I bet it doesn't get pulled off because Stuart is real popular among the current Republican senators. Also, there's that Senate institutional independence that cuts across party lines. Even if Sen. Adair beats Senator Burt and the replacements for Senators Boitano, Harden and Asbill were all loyalists to Guv political adviser Jay McCleskey, they wouldn't have the numbers. (The likely replacement for Dem Senator Lisa Curtis is Republican Mark Moores. He is a former chief of staff to Lt. Gov. Walter Bradley.) I might be wrong, but I doubt he'd go along with such an insurrection. But I think you're right that if there was an uprising, Adair would be part of it...

Interesting stuff and we tend to agree that ousting Ingle is getting tougher by the day. The coup effort against him is suffering from the disinfectant known as sunlight....

Now more on the political fallout from the Guv's strong-arm effort that forced Senator Harden to the sidelines. One of our east side Republican readers--a business owner--says there's plenty of discontent over this:

Joe, There are a lot people who were stunned when Clint announced his retirement. And we couldn’t believe it when the Governor endorsed the first person to announce for the seat. It would have set better with people if Governor Martinez had at least waited until others had announced and then made a choice after meeting all of them. The “East Side” voted heavy for the Governor in the election but she might not have that support the next time around. We feel like she is trying to control our election and we don’t like that. We want to choose our own State Senator. She is probably going to support Angie Spears with her SusanaPAC and some of us, who donated to that PAC, are wishing we had our money back in order to donate it to one of the other candidates...

Angie Spears is the nice of GOP Public Regulation Commission Chairman Pat Lyons and is the first cousin to the wife of Clovis area District Attorney Matt Chandler who in turn has close ties to the Guv's political operation.

How about that line about Republicans not giving money to SusanaPAC if they are upset about its interference in R primaries? That's kind of like Rush Limbaugh being hit with advertiser withdrawals, isn't it?

BLOCKED BOONDOGGLE?

A Santa Fe reader writes:

Joe, not sure if you saw this:

Lawmakers this session reallocated $4 million from a future mega government complex project to fund the more immediate reconstruction of the Manuel Lujan Building. That means 300 Taxation and Revenue employees will move out of the Lujan building this summer for about a year while it is completely gutted and renovated. It also means the state at a later time can again seek funds for the supercomplex, which is still without a location. The complex commonly is called the Las Soleras project for the area south of Santa Fe that members of the former Gov. Bill Richardson administration favored.

And the reader comments:

Let's hope this is the final nail in the coffin for this boondoggle project that should have never got as far as it has--one of Richardson's "legacy " projects. Susana should run from this as fast as she can.

Yes, we thought we saw Susana jogging down Paseo de Peralta the other day...or was that Chuck?

GROUND ZERO

With the crash in natural gas prices Farmington and San Juan County have been ground zero for the Great Bear Market. Its tracks run deep. The latest:

The number of daily drivers throughout San Juan County decreased more than 4 percent since 2008, said the Farmington Metropolitan Planning Organization. (It) can be attributed to a slumping local economy and high gas prices. During the same three-year period when local traffic dropped 4 percent, natural gas production in northwest New Mexico dropped 13 percent, according to (state) statistics...Fewer vehicles are traveling San Juan County roads, suggesting the area has yet to recover from an economic downturn.

"When you lose 5,000 local jobs, you have fewer people commuting to and from work and fewer industry vehicles on the road," San Juan County Commissioner Margaret McDaniel.

The oversupply of natural gas is keeping prices down, slamming Farmington and depriving the state of royalty revenue. Santa Fe says it makes up some of the slack through royalties from higher priced liquefied natural gas, but there's no denying the gas crash has been historic and a chief reason for the decline in money flowing to the state treasury.

TRACKING THE ACTION

With all 112 NM state senators and representatives on the November ballot and with filing day March 20, tracking the action can get pretty wild. Sometimes we just can't keep up with it all. Take the case of Roswell GOP State Senator "Lightning Rod" Adair. We posted a blog early Tuesday saying he had not made a definitive announcement about his plans to seek a fifth term. But it turns out newsman Milan Simonich nailed down Adair's plans to run again. We missed his article until Steve Terrell of the New Mexican pointed it out.

With that confirmation we can look forward to one of the hottest primary contests of the season. Adair will face fellow Republican Senator Bill Burt. Under redistricting, the two were thrown into the same SE NM district. This could turn into a high-dollar primary as Roswell oilman Mark Murphy, who spent hundreds of thousands in 2008 to oust GOP State Rep. Dan Foley, an Adair ally, is now supporting Burt in his battle with Rod.

Also Tuesday, we carried speculation that Greg Nibert (not Craig), a GOP Chaves County Commissioner friendly with Rod, could get into the race. That seems dated now that Adair is all in.

Well, suffice it to say the speculation and chatter in this Roswell-Alamogordo-Lincoln area seat is at fever pitch. We'll look for more twists and turns as they develop--if we can keep up.

And one other clean-up item. Readers Allen Stenger and Carol Guzman point out that we erroneously said that Sandra Fluke, the woman who was called a "slut" by radio talk show host Rush Limbaugh, is an undergraduate student. She is in fact a law student at Georgetown University in DC.

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Tuesday Blogging: More On The GOP Intrigue With Rod Adair, Stuart Ingle And The Fifth Floor, Plus: Will Limbaugh Survive? A NM Talk Pioneer Weighs In

2012-03-06T00:58:00.050-07:00

Sen. Adair
Let's kick it off today with more of the intrigue going on within the state GOP. There's plenty of play action....

In blogging of how the Guv's political machine could take out Senate Minority Leader Stuart Ingle and replace him with a leader with more fealty toward Martinez, we counted State Senator "Lightning Rod" Adair as one of the eight votes they could round up to execute the coup at the next legislative session, but a reader writes:

Joe, You assume that Adair will be able to save his seat which is going to be hard for him in this new district...

Point taken. There is suspense over Rod's SE NM district. Under redistricting he has been thrown into the same district as fellow Republican Senator Bill Burt who the Guv appointed to the seat to fill a vacancy. We are waiting for Adair to formally announce his re-election plans which he must do by March 20. Las Cruces Sun-News columnist Walt Rubel says Adair will run against Burt. The New Mexican's Steve Terrell says Adair has told him directly that he will seek re-election. Also, newsman Milan Simonich came with this article quoting Adair as running for a fifth term.

The race is not a no-brainer for Adair. Burt, a radio station owner, is well-known in Alamogordo in Otero County which now makes up a large part of the district. He has announced he is all in on the Senate run.

(There has been some early compare and contrast between Adair and Burt over votes on a liability bill for the NM Spaceport. More on that here.

Adair has been an important voice in the Senate for the hard right of the GOP. That's why the state is watching this one closely.

STABBING STUART?

Meantime, the speculation over the political future of respected State Senate Minority Leader Stuart Ingle is rocking eastern New Mexico. We've blogged that Ingle, a local legend in the Clovis area, could be targeted by the Guv's political operation for replacement as GOP leader at the next legislative session. The Clovis News-Journal asked Ingle directly about that possibility. He responded, "Who knows?"

He's not exactly shooting it down, is he?

The Guv's chief political adviser, Jay McCleskey, put out a statement assuring the locals that the Guv is supportive of Ingle and that they will not field a primary challenger against him. But that came after months of talk that they were looking for someone to run against him.

So who would replace Ingle as Senate GOP leader if the long knives come out and he is ousted? Informed insiders say ABQ State Senator Bill Payne, the Senate minority whip, is first in line. In light of that you might want to know that the very first political client of Jay McCleskey was none other than....Bill Payne.

Yep. Around here, the Gators cover both the Fourth Floor of the Roundhouse--where the Guv sets up shop--as well as the "Fifth Floor" where the political plotting goes on and on and on....

THE PLOT THICKENS

Could this push for Senate conformity among the GOP cost the Governor politically? A Senior Alligator assesses Martinez's concentration on getting more compliant Republicans in the Senate this election year. He says it could be an overreach with consequences at the polls and could also detract from the R's hopes of increasing their strength in the narrowly divided state House:

"Holding serve" is an analogy from tennis. In tennis the server has the advantage to score. Hence Susana must now serve to hold onto the senators she has, instead of focusing on taking the House. She will be lucky to replace all of the Republican senators with those who will march to her wishes. Her anointed are tainted by the separation of powers and checks and balances issues...

And that sums it up in a nutshell. For example, Susana's anointed candidate to replace east side GOP State Senator Clint Harden, Angie Spears, has already drawn two opponents.

And then there's another factor you won't hear about anywhere else, but that's why we're here. Governor Martinez is a Hispanic woman from Las Cruces and Stuart Ingle is an Anglo male from cowboy country. The unity between the two can be fragile, no?

While the Guv and her operatives may want all R's to march in lockstep, the people doing the voting may have other ideas.

THE BOITANO SEAT

Mark Boitano has held his ABQ NE Heights Senate seat since 1997 so his retirement announcement seems to be creating some pent up demand. Republican Gerges Scott is first in line, coming with a formal announcement for the seat. He is an energy analyst with the DW Turner PR firm and a former executive news producer at KRQE-TV. He also worked as the PR flack for the Dept. of Corrections when Republican Gary Johnson was governor. Scott is a close friend of former Bernalillo County Sheriff and GOP activist Darren White who in turn has close ties to Gov. Martinez political adviser Jay McCleskey.

Not to say Jay and company will back Scott. They may have two other choices if they want to play. Insiders say Kurstin Johnson, wife of GOP Bernalillo County Commissioner Wayne Johnson, is mulling a run as is Lisa Torraco. We'll see how the field settles on filing date March 20. No Dems really need apply here. Boitano country is Republican country.

IN OUR TIME

It is fundamental to understanding this era in New Mexican politics that the Governor, the GOP and a fair number of citizens do not want government to do much of anything. While Senator Adair recently called the recent session of the Legislature the biggest "do nothing" one he could recall, Farmington GOP Senator Bill Sharer has a different take:

Generally speaking, any legislature, not just New Mexico's, mostly does things to people, not for them. This time one of the great successes was not doing anything to anybody...

After the big government Richardson era, the slowdown in Santa Fe could be seen as the pause that refreshes. The trouble comes when the pause becomes permanent.

WILL LIMBAUGH SURVIVE?
Limbaugh & Santullo
Is the Rush Limbaugh talk radio era nearing its end? The conservative host has been atop the heap for decades, but his latest misstep is a doozy and causing advertisers to bail. When discussing contraception he set off a firestorm by calling a a student at Georgetown University Law School as a "slut" and a "prostitute."

We asked New Mexico talk radio pioneer Mike Santullo for his thoughts on where Limbaugh goes from here;

I think he will barely survive it. But, yes, I think it is the beginning of the end. In the over 20 years he has been on, this is the biggest negative reaction to anything he's done. The time is right for him to start crumbling. Time wise, the country has had enough and he isn't the icon he once was. The political climate isn't in his favor anymore give the fact that he and other conservative talk show hosts have not weakened Obama as they had hoped to. To quote Bob Dylan, "The times they are a changin'."

Limbaugh is heard locally from 10 a.m to 1 p.m. weekdays on 50,000 watt talk radio giant 770 KKOB-AM where he enjoys high ratings. If there have been calls for an advertiser boycott of Limbaugh locally, they have been below the radar.

Santullo began in talk radio in the early 70's when the medium was in its infancy. He held forth on KZIA-AM, ABQ's first full-time talk station. Later he toiled as a press flack for Dem ABQ Mayor Ken Schultz and as a director for the NM Commission for the Blind from which he retired.

MARTY'S MONEY

The letter to the ABQ Journal editor that was also sent here and which we ran Monday said ABQ congressional candidate Marty Chavez had received a severance package from his DC employer when he left that job. But Chavez's campaign says the letter writer is wrong and sent a copy of his W-2 showing he made $96,000 in wages for part of 2011 and received no severance before he left to run for Congress. The issue of severance pay popped up recently when it was disclosed that congressional hopeful Eric Griego received $24,000 in severance pay when he left his post as executive director of the NM Voices for Children. The group defended the payout as normal while critics lambasted it as a disguised campaign contribution.

IT'S DONE--FOR NOW

The redistricting of ABQ's nine city council districts is done and three of the council districts will now be on the Westside where growth boomed during the go-go years, but has since slowed. ABQ Mayor Berry came with this take:

I support having three full council districts on the Westside...I (also) supported a center city district, which (this redistricting) accomplishes as well....This has been a long deliberative process with significant public participation and I would like to thank all those involved for their input...

But neighborhood groups are threatening legal action to thwart the redistricting plan. The plan approved is called "Map-L." As is our custom we go deep inside City Hall and to one of our Alligators for an opposing view and one informed by an up-close look at the action:

The following is the basis for the demographic argument against Map L. District 2 is 35% white and has a total population of 63,508 2,833, so it has a + 4.7% deviation. District 3, also a majority-minority district (11.6% white), has a +2.8 deviation. The argument is that two minority-majority districts have the largest positive deviation. Councilor Winter's is 4, Jones 8, and Harris 9. All have negative deviations and are not minority-majority. The plan dilutes minority vote because of the deviations. This is a link to the demographic data of the map. This is a link to the map.

And there's another major concern with the approved plan. Here's that:

Map L packs the poor into District 2. The new District 2 would have the vast majority of low income census tracts and all of the federally-designated "pockets of poverty."

Let's see what happens, if anything, when and if these arguments go before a judge.

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Bear Is Still Out Of His Lair Here; He Dines On The Stale Economy, Plus: The To And Fro In ABQ Congress Race, Also: Sizing Up State Senate Action

2012-03-05T00:58:00.028-07:00

The bear is back. We thought we had finally chased him away after more than three years of dining on the economy, but this guy is stubborn and has an extra large appetite. Just look at him, pleased as punch with himself and poised for yet another meal.

And what's he dining on these days? How about for an appetizer the loss of 20 jobs at high-end Christie's real estate in Santa Fe as the housing market there continues to darken?

Second course dining could feature the downturn in the Rio Rancho area housing market--an always delectable delight for our hungry bear. The menu reads as follows:

Home construction in Rio Rancho has declined steadily since a mid-decade high. Builders broke ground on 264 new single-family homes between January and the end of November, according to the city website. That’s a 39 percent drop compared with the January through November period in 2010, when housing starts were at 436.

But this isn't a baby bear. For the main course, he will go all out. Up to 800 jobs at Los Alamos National Labs:

The National Nuclear Security Administration has approved a plan to cut staff at Los Alamos National Laboratory through voluntary buyouts. Lab officials last week announced plans to reduce their permanent full-time workforce by between 400 and 800 employees this spring, or as much as 11 percent.

We missed this part of the Los Alamos story. From the NYT:

In 2008, amid similar budget constraints, 431 workers were let go with buyouts. But this year’s cuts will probably run deeper, and Mr. McMillan acknowledged that they would be difficult.

No great meal concludes without dessert and our bear will not go wanting. For his, the Bear will savor the loss of 60 jobs from the ABQ Sony studios:

Sony Pictures Imageworks is closing its downtown Albuquerque studio this July when the company's lease expires...The nearly 60 workers at the studio in Albuquerque will be offered jobs at other Sony facilities in Canada and Los Angeles.

That's a fine meal indeed. But this Bear is cosmopolitan. He wants a cappuccino and an after dinner drink to complete his repast. And he finds it in Las Cruces and the tax collection crash:

The Gross Receipts Tax remittance from the state for the month of February 2012 totaled $6,832,214 a 3.9% decrease from the GRT remittance of February 2011. February receipts represent December economic activity. The year to date growth rate now stands at a negative 0.3% for the first eight months of fiscal year 2012. February figures, representing the Christmas shopping season, are a reversal of the slow improvement seen since September.

Yes, New Mexico is a fine dining spot for the Great Bear. He apparently has been spotted fleeing other states as a stronger economic recovery takes hold, but as you can see from the picture of him posted today the Bear is out of his lair here and ready to be served again--al fresco style.

What will it take to chase this fella away?

RESHAPING A STATE

There is a sense of helplessness among government policy makers in Santa Fe, business intellectuals in ABQ and aspiring politicians everywhere about where we go next economically. Worldwide forces are reshaping the very fabric of the New Mexico they knew.

A new school of thinking, apparently unfamiliar with New Mexico's history, has emerged in the catacombs of the Tea Party and segments of the GOP that says we should just fall down and absorb all the federal budget cuts and work to replace the billions of dollars lost with private sector development. What? Let the state wither with more shrinking real estate values, less money for the "private" contractors, fewer employment opportunities and a general decline in our already low standard of living? Just when is this billions of private development supposed to come on line and save us from these "dreaded" dollars from Uncle Sam? When we're all dead?

Well, thankfully, the far right fringe has not taken over mainstream GOP thinking as represented by GOP Senate candidate Heather Wilson, but we're watching closely.

If you like kicking this kind of thing around, on March 22 the think tank New Mexico First looks at the state's first 100 years and seeks ideas for the next 100.

SANTA FE HOPES

Despite the dismal economic backdrop the Guv insists that the over $200 million in new money she and the Legislature expects to come in and is factored into the $5.6 billion state budget she signed Friday will show up. With $100 a barrel a oil and selected economic sectors performing well, they may be right. But we aren't going to be surprised if the state is again sent scurrying for revenue as these jobs go drip, dripping away--especially all those well paying government positions.

Susana has a $137 million capital outlay bill on her desk that she is expected to sign this week--after vetoing out some glaring examples of pork barrel spending. She and every governor before her laments--with good reason--the scattershot capital outlay process. We get projects that don't really add much value or boost economic activity much but satisfy the narrow interest of particular legislators. But the state is still flat on its back and the Guv, it is assumed, knows it and will sign off on the measure and get the money flowing which in turn should create some sorely needed construction and other job

GETTING UGLY?

A reader writes of the three way battle for the Dem nomination for the ABQ congressional seat:

I received a call from a pollster asking questions about the candidates. They wondered if my vote could be impacted by such things as Marty Chavez’ girlfriend who was indicted on embezzlement charges who they said was involved in some wheeling & dealing while he was ABQ mayor.They also asked about Eric Griegos's payout from his job as executive director of New Mexico Voices for Children and his support for driver’s licenses for undocumented immigrant. They also said talked about neglect cases when Michelle Lujan Grisham was state health secretary and that she had worked for Republicans. Someone’s fixin’ to play really ugly.

Yep. First it's the polling and then those familiar mail and TV attack ads.

Meanwhile, Griego supporters are pushing back against questions raised in the press and picked up here about his $24,000 severance payment when he left his post at NM Voices to run for the US House. Lora Lucero writes:

If the ABQ Journal wants to be fair, they should have looked into every candidate --Republican and Democrat--and how much money they made in their former jobs, etc. Two examples -- Marty Chavez's severance package from ICLEI. He reports making $120,000 in six months of work. His annual salary is $175,000. Where did that bump come from? Also, did the other candidates seek out an FEC decision in the name of transparency as Eric did when he accepted his severance?

Why not discuss Michelle Lujan Grisham's current status? Aren't there any concerns about whether serving as a Bernalillo County Commissioner while campaigning and working for Delta Consulting Group --a firm that has state and county contracts pose any ethical conflicts?

Another reader writes:

Joe, On Tuesday you wrote that Michelle has “out raised her two rivals in the early going, but--and a big but--she hasn't spent much. Griego and Chavez have been padding the political payrolls for months . . .”

Since when does high overhead and padded payrolls win elections? Keeping the expenditures down now, in the (very) early stages of the campaign, while continuing to fund raise at a feverish pace, should put Michelle in a position to outspend her opponents when it really counts, on things (like TV ads) that can swing voters.

It's still winter, but the heat is rising.

FISCH OUT OF WATER

The speculation is over about the future of Dona Ana Dem State Senator Steve Fischmann. Add his name to the retirement list, bringing the number of Senate retirements to seven in the 42 member body, including Eric Griego who is running for the ABQ congressional seat. The new slogan for Santa Fe is, "It's just not fun anymore."

THE PAIN OF PAYNE

He possesses one of the best minds in state politics, but the personal demons of Greg Payne continue to haunt him. Over the weekend the colorful and practiced politico was picked up and charged with aggravated DWI. Sadly, he was also charged with cruelty towards his children, aged 7 and 9, because he left them alone at his house.

Payne publicly fought alcoholism some 10 years ago when he was an GOP ABQ City Councilor. He went on to get elected to the state House and had a good run as director of the ABQ transit department under Dem Mayor Marty Chavez. He made a political comeback attempt last year, challenging fellow Republican Trudy Jones for her city council seat, but lost.

Payne, 44, has consulted state politicos at the highest levels and with much success (he attended a political party on the day of his arrest).

"I love my kids and hope this is not the defining moment on how I am viewed as a father," Payne told me Sunday night.

Dealing with personal demons on the very public stage is all part of the rough and tumble world of La Politica. The pathos of Payne is the latest example but far from the last in this....the life they have chosen.

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First Big Gaffe in Senate Race Belongs to Heather, Plus: Blog Names In The News: Cervantes, Martinez, Padilla & Romero

2012-03-02T00:54:00.017-07:00

The Wades & Their Voting Dog
You mean the highly disciplined Heather Wilson allows a rookie error that would make a campaign intern blush? Hard to believe but the leading GOP US Senate contender is getting busted because the husband of her finance director, Heather Wade, played wise guy and registered the couple's dog "Buddy" at a voter registration booth at UNM. He said he did it to prove that it is easy to commit voter fraud. But when he was interviewed by KOB-TV he was given anonymity and his connection to the Wilson campaign went unmentioned. That deception has since been disclosed and the Bernalillo county clerk says Thomas Tolbert, Wade's husband, could be prosecuted for the illegal registration.

Say what? This from Wilson who was nearly brought down by the US Attorney scandal when she and then-Senator Domenici tried to persuade the then-GOP US attorney to bring corruption prosecutions against Democrats? This from Heather who has unsuccessfully tagged team with hard-right Republicans to try to show that there is rampant voter fraud here when that same GOP US attorney said there wasn't?

And wasn't it only recently that GOP Secretary of State Dianna Duran had to engage in a full scale retreat when her allegations of massive voter fraud blew up in her face? Yes.

Hasn't she put all that lunacy behind her as she prepares for the most important race of her life and one of the most important NM Senate races ever? No wonder some R's muttered when they heard of this gaffe, "Where's John Sanchez when you need him?"

The campaign may have been dumb enough to let this stunt out, but smart enough to do some damage control. The quotes:

"This was very poor judgement by a family member of an employee,” Wilson campaign manager Bryce Dustman said. “He has apologized and this matter is between him and the county clerk.”

And Tolbert himself said:

I made a mistake and I want to apologize to Bernalillo County Clerk, Maggie Toulouse Oliver, my wife, who was not aware of my actions, and the public. I will take full responsibility for my actions.

You mean wife Heather was "unaware?"

Come on, you can practically hear them snickering during the pillow talk.

But it's Big Heather, not little heather, that is of concern here. It could be argued that the incident reveals a mind-set at Wilson headquarters that continues to be infected with the out of the mainstream thinking that could block her from being elected in a moderate state like ours.

With Sanchez out and Greg Sowards no real threat for the June nomination, Wilson ought to be positioning herself squarely in the center of the political spectrum, not on the fringe where dogs are registered to vote and black helicopters are humming over head.

(By the way, that Buddy is one good looking dog. Maybe Heather can use him in one of her campaign commercials--just leave him out of the voting booth).

MUSICAL CHAIRS (CONT)

Does the departure of State Rep. Joe Cervantes from the House make the path to the speakership a bit smoother for Rep. Kenny Martinez? Insiders think so. In the 2011 legislative session Dem Cervantes of Las Cruces was put forth as a coalition speaker, backed by conservative Dems and Republicans, but dropped his bid at the last minute when GOP support fizzled. Speaker Ben Lujan was re-elected. He has since announced he has cancer and will retire.

Martinez of Grants, whose father was House Speaker back in the 70's, is seen as the front-runner to replace Lujan, but other reps are murmuring their interest. Talk of a GOP takeover of the narrowly divided House in 2012 has quieted now that a new House redistricting plan a bit more favorable to the Dems than an earlier one has been approved. Also, turnout models for a presidential election year do not favor the R's. A coalition of R's and D's may still be a longshot possibility, but there's no obvious leader of it with Cervantes gone.

Cervantes says he will seek the state Senate seat held by Cynthia Nava who announced her retirement this week. And while Kenny Martinez and Cervantes are old friends, the move is probably good for both of them--for Martinez's path to the speakership and Cervantes' future political ambitions.

ONE HANDED

We want you to know that we're typing this with one hand because we're suffering from Alligator bites to the other. And, frankly, we think these Gators pounced too forcefully. Yes, we screwed up when we said that Valencia County GOP State Rep. Alonzo Baldonado defeated Dem State Rep. Elias Barela in the 2010 election. What happened is that Barela was defeated in the Dem primary by Julian Luna and Baldonado went on to beat Luna in November. So why such severe Alligator bites? Because we and some nonbiting Alligators questioned why the Dems would want to put up Barela in this district after he did so lousy last time. Okay, so he lost in the primary to Luna who was a strong Dem rival not in the general election. Still, it's a problem. Although we will give the biting Alligators their due and say Barela's chances of a comeback are better than those of former Valenica County Dem State Rep. Andrew Barreras who is also trying to come back after losing his seat to the R's in 2010.

Now we are off to put some salve on our bitten fingers. Man, those Valencia County Gators are tough!

KICKING IT OFF

From the campaign email:

Democratic Bernalillo County Commissioner Maggie Hart Stebbins will kick off her 2012 Election Campaign at O’Niell’s Irish Pub in Nob Hill, 4310 Central SE, 2-4 p.m., this Sunday, March 4. The public is invited to join her. Hart Stebbins represents District 3 of the Bernalillo County Commission, which includes the University of New Mexico and Uptown/Winrock...Hart Stebbins was appointed to the commission in 2009 to fill a vacant seat and was later elected in the 2010 Election. She was elected Chairwoman of the Commission in 2011.

Fellow Dem Art De La Cruz ousted Hart Stebbins when she sought another term as chairwoman this year, but her re-election is looking good so far. No high profile opponents have surfaced yet.

VALLEY ACTION

Dem ABQ Senate candidate Michael Padilla hopes the heat is rising some Saturday morning as he hosts a campaign kick-off and Matanza in the South Valley area he seeks to represent. It starts at 10 AM at 7241 Isleta SW (Chicharrones at 10 in the morning? Maybe they're making breakfast burritos with them?)

Anyway, Padilla, you may recall, ran for the Dem nomination against State Sen. Linda Lopez four years ago and lost. He is now running for an open Senate seat created when Eric Griego announced he would leave it to run for the ABQ congressional seat. But this is another tough battle. State Rep. Eleanor Chavez, our insiders report, is also in the contest as is former State Senator James Taylor. This seat is all Dem all the time. No R's need apply.

Among the hosts for the Matanza is former Ambassador Ed Romero. We saw him the other day and it appeared he had lost a bit of weight. Good job, Ed, but don't fall into the chicharrone pot on Saturday...

Thanks for making us part of your day this week. We appreciate the company.

Reporting from Albuquerque, I'm Joe Monahan.

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Musical Chair Season Continues As Lawmakers Make Election Decisions; We're Across NM With The Action, Plus: Something New: Guv Vetoes Via Twitter

2012-03-01T00:59:00.031-07:00

It's musical chairs season for state lawmakers making plans to retire, to seek re-election or even switch to another race. It can get so confusing even the insiders have trouble keeping up. Take a look at this memo State House Minority Leader Tom Taylor of Farmington sent to his members and which an Alligator forwarded to us:

Members: Please inform leadership of your election intentions. It is important for planning purposes regarding funding and support that I know if you are not running for your seat (who you have found to replace you) and if you are contemplating doing something different...

During this time of an election year Taylor's job makes herding cats look easy. And there's even more action to track today as the March 20 filing deadline for the Legislative races nears. Off we go....

SQUEEZING SAPIEN

Breaking on Thursday morning: State Sen. Cynthia Nava of Dona Ana County, Chair of the Senate Education Committee, says she will retire. State Rep. Joe Cervantes says he will now leave the House to seek the Nava Senate seat. The musical chairs keep moving....

Not unexpectedly Dem State Senator John Sapien is getting a challenge from his left to go along with the one he already has on his right. Former State Rep. Ben Rodefer will make the liberal case against the more conservative Sapien who has had run-ins with the environmental crowd as well as those who feel he has been too conservative fiscally. In private life Sapien is an insurance man. Rodefer, President of the New Mexico Renewable Energy Industries Association, was defeated for re-election to his state House seat after serving one term. Sapien will sort through that Rodefer baggage as he seeks a second term to his Sandoval County district that includes liberal Corrales and Placitas as well as Bernalillo, Algodones and parts of Sandia Pueblo and Rio Rancho.

Meanwhile, first term ABQ Westside state Rep. David Doyle is leaving the House to go after Sapien as the GOP Senate nominee. Talk about a long year for Spaien, but because he has not carved out a firm identity the foes are circling. Also, under redistricting Sapien's district is now more Democratic. That will help in the general election, but the primary is the challenge. Still, as a Hispanic Dem with the ability to raise money, Sapien is no easy target for the newly eager Rodefer. Stay tuned.

STAYING PUT

In other Senate action, GOP State Rep. Conrad James has decided to stay put and seek re-election to the House rather than run for the Senate seat begin vacated by fellow Republican Mark Boitano. It appears James will have an uphill battle as his ABQ NE Heights district is going to become more Dem under redistricting. Veteran politics watcher Mark Bralley emails that James would have been the state's first African-American state senator if he had run and been successful.

SENSITIVE ISSUE?

From down south we have analysis for you that may be too sensitive for the locals. Former Las Cruces area State Rep. Jeff Steinborn is going to challenge fellow Dem and State Rep. Antonio Lujan for the party's nomination. He says Lujan's new district will include many precincts that Steinborn used to represent. Steinborn, like Rodefer, was ousted from his old seat by a Republican in the 2010 GOP wave.

What's sensitive is the issue of Hispanic representation in the state House from the Dona Ana County area. Another Anglo Dem, Bill McCamley, has announced he will seek the Dem nomination for the House seat held by retiring Rep. Joni Gutierrez. That's two Hispanic House seats in play within the Dem Party. Should we expect the Gutierrez seat to draw a Hispanic candidate before filing day? We should.

BAD STRATEGY?

And are state Dems dropping the ball when it comes to the Valencia County state House seat held by freshman GOP Rep. David Chavez? Some think so. It appears that Dem Andrew Barreras, who Chavez beat in 2012 when it was disclosed that Barreras had tax problems, is going to try to win back the seat which either party is capable of taking. Chavez has been somewhat controversial, especially with regard to his position on gay marriage which has drawn protests from activists. But how can Barreras take him out with his old baggage holding him down? They're just asking...

And there's more. Dem Elias Barela is back to challenge GOP State Rep. Alonzo Baldonado. But Baldonado beat Julian Luna who defeated Barela in the 2010 primary. What's different now?

Chavez and Baldonado are potentially vulnerable R's, but if the fellas they ended up dispatching last time around get the right to challenge them again, the pair has cause to start breathing easier.

HARDEN SEAT

It looked as though Angie Spears, the niece of Public Regulation Commission Chairman Pat Lyons, was going to have a free ride in the GOP primary to replace retiring east side State Senator Clint Harden, but it's not to be. From the email:

Republican Mark W. Myers is pleased to announce that he is running for State Senate District 7 encompassing Curry, Quay and Union Counties.

Mark is a lifelong Curry County resident who attended New Mexico State University and Texas Tech with a focus on agriculture and law. As a successful businessman with over 20 years in both agricultural commodities and transportation, Mark has the entrepreneurial experience that Eastern New Mexico deserves.

Spears is seen as closely aligned with the Guv and her political operation. Harden was not a down-the-line Martinez supporter. We blogged Wednesday of how the Guv is hoping to reshape the GOP Senate leadership by influencing which R's get a ticket to Santa Fe this November.

And there's yet another R in the race for the Harden seat:

Republican John Patrick “Pat” Woods will run for state senate in District 7, which includes Curry, Quay and Union counties. Woods is a fourth-generation farmer in the Grady and Broadview area, encompassing parts of Curry and Quay counties.

THE NEW WAY

How about this? The liberal PAC ProgressNow NM comes with the report on how the Guv's office used Twitter to signal that she will veto a tax bill:

Governor Susana Martinez's staff leaked her legislative plan by Twitter on Tuesday when Deputy Chief of Staff Ryan Cangiolosi tweeted that the governor would veto legislation to close a big corporate tax loophole and lower taxes for New Mexico-based businesses.

While the sponsor of SB9, Sen. Peter Wirth, and Rep. Brian Egolf were holding a public meeting in their Santa Fe district Tuesday night, Cangiolosi tweeted:

in an apparent response to the Santa Fe Reporter's editor Alexa Schirtzinger's post that the governor's veto of SB9 could be political trouble for the governor.

He apparently got no response last night, and retweeted it again this morning, this time without directing it to a reporter.

Hey, keep that news coming, Ryan, but watch those emotions. The kids on Twitter like to try to trip you up. By the way, did Susana know what you were up to?

SONY GOES DARK

In the news:

Sony Pictures Imageworks will not renew its lease in Albuquerque when it expires in July...There were significant projections of growth for digital media in Albuquerque...But the downturn in the economy canceled much of that expansion....At its peak, the company employed 100, but that has varied depending on production schedules. Currently, it’s in the neighborhood of 60, said Sony officials.

Not good and a warning shot for Governor Martinez who early in her term engaged in Hollywood bashing as she and the Legislature trimmed incentives for the film industry. ABQ Mayor Berry is also hearing this shoe drop, signaling that in the years ahead keeping these kind of entertainment jobs won't be easy. He did not argue with Martinez about cutting the incentives. While Sony going dark is a blow, the state is getting the filming of the blockbuster "The Lone Ranger."

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GOP State Senate Intrigue: Team Susana Seen Hatching Plot To Oust Their Senate Leader, Plus: Heinrich On The Stump; How's That Going?

2012-02-29T00:58:00.041-07:00

Martinez vs. Ingle
More today on the the dark twist the Governor's relationship has taken with some state Senators of her own party and also the travails of her chief of staff--Keith Gardner--in dealing with the chamber.

Today we have a report from a former Republican lawmaker still in contact with his Santa Fe colleagues who sheds light on how the power playing in your government is taking shape. And we add how the Governor's political machine appears to be taking on members of her own party as it seeks to oust the Senate minority leader. First, our politico:

Friends say Senator Clint Harden is leaving because the Guv found someone to run against him. One reason seems to be his friendship with Senate Minority Leader Stuart Ingle who (Martinez chief political adviser) Jay McCleskey wants out of that position. Two R's who had other candidates to replace Harden were told to butt out unless they wanted to get on the wrong side of the Guv and that a final choice had been made (A niece of GOP Public Regulation Commission Chairman Pat Lyons, Angie Spears, is the GOP Senate candidate favored to replace Harden in the east side seat).

Guv Chief of Staff Keith Gardner is persona non grata in the Senate except for a few on the Guv's side. His bullying this last legislative session was the last straw and they will never let it happen again.

McCleskey is said to have told Republican Senators that he will target R's who side with those not succumbing to the Guv. That caused two previous supporters of the Guv to tell her that she may be high in the polls, but you're the lowest you can get in the Senate. Republican Senators can't remember anyone from their own party ever informing them that members of their own caucus were being targeted. They expect more Senators to leave because of threats and future disruption of legislative process..

Another GOP Senator leaving this cycle is Vern Asbill of Carlsbad and ABQ's Mark Boitano announced this week he is retiring. There are a total of five Senators who have announced they are departing so far--not the four we initially blogged Tuesday. The two Dems are Feldman and Griego.

Senate candidates have until March 20 to file their required petition signatures.

MINORITY LEADER WHO?

There were rumblings that Sen. Ingle, in the Senate game since '85, could draw a GOP challenger drafted by the Guv's operatives but the talk has since died down. If our former GOP Senator turned Alligator has it right, the play could be to try to round up enough votes to vote Ingle out as minority leader. Let's go behind the curtain and once again to the top sources in state politics and outline what may be McCleskey's strategy on behalf of Susana...

First, the Guv sees Ingle as too willing to work with the likes of veteran Dem Senator Tim Jennings and not pushing hard enough for her agenda. They don't like the institutional independence that Ingle has shown. That is the premise for dethroning him. Insiders say it will take only eight Republican votes to topple Ingle.

If SusanaPAC flush with cash comes out strong for the winning GOP candidates in the three state Senate seats that will switch hands because of retirements, we assume the Guv will have their votes for a new leader. That's only five to go. Senators Rod Adair and John Ryan are seen as easy anti-Ingle votes. Now we need only three to get a more Susana friendly GOP leader. And there are lots of easy pickings.

Ousting one of your own is a brutal business but Susana's strategy is to have her team be more hard-hitting with the majority Senate Dems. But going after your own is never without consequence. Fielding a strong GOP opponent against Ingle could make the Republican natives restless. (There was political gossip about having State Rep. Dennis Kintigh mounting a challenge to Ingle, but nothing came of it.)

Taking the leadership post away from Ingle, but not his seat would be the safe way. So far, that seems to be the play and if the vote count above is right, there is no need for Susana to provoke a bloody, cannibalistic and intramural feud over Ingle. Like Caesar, the killing can take place on the floor of the Senate.

And if you noted that the three retiring Senators and Ingle can be described as easier going conservatives with some moderate leanings, you had it right. Compromise and working across the aisle are dirty phrases in gridlocked Santa Fe. With Susana and company seeking retribution for those who cross the line, don't look for a new mood swing anytime soon.

MONITORING MARTIN
Heinrich & Monahan On Capitol Hill
Can the often reserved and low-key Martin Heinrich fire up the Democratic base as he seeks the nomination for US Senate? Here's a first look at Heinrich's efforts in that regard. He belts out his new tune to the recent convention of Bernalillo County Dems, making sure there is plenty of red meat on topics like Medicare and the Bush tax cuts. He even takes a brief jab at probable GOP Senate nominee Heather Wilson.

Heinrich, 40, has come a long way quickly. He was first elected to the ABQ city council in 2003. He won election to the US House in 2008 and was re-elected in 2010. But he would not be the first New Mexico politican to take a relatively fast trajectory to the US Senate. Pete Domenici was 40 when he won his first Senate term. Retiring Dem Senator Jeff Bingaman who Heinrich hopes to succeed was 39 when he was elected in '82.

Like Heinrich, Domenici got his start in ABQ politics, serving six years on the then-city commission. Both men also come from decidedly working class backgrounds. Domenici went on to serve a state record of 36 years in the Senate, accumulating massive seniority. His 2009 departure is now being felt as federal budget cuts sting the state.

Heinrich and Domenici are not known for their warm and fuzzy personalities. The traits they share that have made them successful are a capacity for growth in their jobs and the ability to put together solid staffing that can ease the path.

As a native New Mexican of Italian descent Domenici had an easier time corralling the Hispanic vote than Heinrich who was born in Nevada and grew up in Missouri. He has to prove his connection to the locals and do it while being challenged for the Senate nomination by Hispanic native and State Auditor Hector Balderas. Not that Domenici had a clear path to his first Senate nomination. In 1972, Pete competed for the prize with six other Republicans.

We can safely say this is the most important United States Senate election in New Mexico in our lifetime. Our seniority on Capitol Hill will be at one of its lowest ebbs ever with the departure of Senator Bingaman. First term Senator Tom Udall is not going to follow in the footsteps of Domenici and those who preceded him when it comes to specializing in the federal presence here. And the federal dollars flowing into here have never been more threatened.

The new freshman Senator from New Mexico will bear a heavy load immediately upon taking office in 2013. They will be expected to make friends, but also to step on toes and fight to protect the billions that drive the state's economy. Substantial economic diversification and less federal dependence are decades away, if ever.

Whoever wins in November will score an impressive personal triumph, but whether they can translate it into a big win for the state is the great unknown.

CAMPAIGN TRAIL

We raised the possibility Tuesday of ABQ GOP State Rep. Conrad James seeking the state Senate seat held by Mark Boitano now that Boitano has announced his retirement. It seems it is more than a possibility. James posted this on his Facebook page:

Given the recent news, I am strongly considering a run for the District 18 Senate seat and will make my decision in the next couple days.

James's ABQ NE Heights district is going to look much less friendly to him when the redistricting is completed thus his look at the Senate seat.

(Wednesday morning James said he would not seek the Boitano seat but will seek re-election to the state House.)

In other Senate news, we are being told that ABQ Dem State Rep. Eleanor Chavez will soon formally announce that she will leave her Westside seat to seek the Dem nomination for the Senate seat held by Eric Griego who is leaving to run for the ABQ congressional slot. That means another new face for the state House as musical chairs continue this primary season.

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Stirring Up The La Politica Pot; Ben Ray's Chicharrones, ABQ House Race Rumblings, Heather's Polling, And: The Gay Hairdresser Conspiracy--Or Not

2012-02-28T00:59:00.034-07:00

Congressman Ben Ray Lujan takes his turn at stirring the chicharrone pot at the annual Valencia County Matanza in this snap sent to the blog. He seems quite capable as he is properly using a wooden paddle--not a metal one, an error that vaulted 2010 Lt. Governor nominee Brian Colon into unwanted legendary status (well, at least around here).

While Ben Ray, 39, and serving his second two year term in the US House, is stirring things up down in Belen, he's having a much tougher time stirring up his Washington colleagues over the budget ax that is bloodying Los Alamos National Labs. Up to 800 layoffs are in the pipeline and Lujan and the rest of the congressional delegation seem powerless to stop them.

Los Alamos County votes heavy Republican, but most of Lujan's district is heavy Dem and he is expected to win a third term this November without too much trouble.

But the lesson is that getting power on Capitol Hill takes time and patience. Much like watching over those delicate morsels of pork the congressman is attended to at the matanza. More than ever it is is the political pork--the billions that go into Los Alamos and Sandia National Labs and that are spun out into the area economy--that is on the minds of New Mexico voters. If New Mexico can't stop the bleeding in the coming years in DC, the chicharrone pots are going to be filled with potatoes--not delicious and fortifying pork.

ABQ HOUSE STIRRINGS

In the race for the ABQ US House seat it's not chicharrones being stirred, but a hornet's nest. They keep flying out of the hive and at former Mayor ABQ Mayor Marty Chavez. A few are now stinging Eric Griego and one or two have even taken a bite out of Michelle Lujan Grisham.

For Marty, it has been girlfriend Loretta Mares that has stirred things up. She's been indicted on felony embezzlement charges out of Santa Fe, and even though Marty no longer lives with Mares, Dem Alligators are expressing concern. A sampler:

The Republicans love to beat up on Hispanic Democrats on corruption charges. The ABQ House seat appears ready to go Dem, but this mess with Marty could breathe life into a corruption argument against him--even though he is not personally involved in the scandal. It's just the way things play out in New Mexico, and it is worrisome.

Meantime, State Senator Eric Griego is getting an idea of what it's like to play on the larger stage of La Politica. He cashed out of his former job as executive director for NM Voices for Children with a $24,000 pay out. The critics raved that it really was a campaign contribution in disguise, but Voices says it was severance pay and the feds say there was no campaign violation. Whatever the case, it shows that the voluble Griego--doing his best to keep his cool as the heat rises--will be taunted plenty as he is taken more serious as a possible Dem nominee. And that's the way it should be, right?

As for Bernalillo County Commissioner Michelle Lujan Grisham, she's hoping the troubles of Eric and Marty make way for her to run the ball up the middle. But she's going to have to get her team together to do it. Insiders report she has already shed a campaign manager. From Gatorville:

Jason Henry quit the campaign after much speculation that he was going to leave. Michelle has just hired Dominic Gabello as her new campaign manger. He was former Congressman Harry Teague's campaign manager and just finished working in Virginia's state senate elections. If anyone can rein in Michelle it will be Gabello.

Rein her in? Okay. But what about letting things loose? This is Michelle's second try for the Dem nod for the ABQ House seat, having lost the first one to Martin Heinrich in 2008. She no longer runs without risk, You lose this one and your future options don't look so wide open.

She has out raised her two rivals in the early going, but--and a big but--she hasn't spent much. Griego and Chavez have been padding the political payrolls for months and building ground organizations. The Alligators say they still have ownership of this race, but if girlfriends and campaign spending issues continue to buzz above them, it could be to Michelle's benefit.

CAMPAIGN NOTES

Attorney Brian Thomas jumps in the Dem race for the ABQ State House seat being vacated by Danice Picraux. He joins education union chief Christine Trujillo in the contest as politico Sterling Fluharty drops his plans to run and endorses Christine. Thomas is ready to spend--and presumably so are the unions n behalf of Trujillo. This could be a hot one. The district is heavy Dem. No R's need apply....

Former Dona Ana County Commissioner Bill McCamley just keeps trying. He writes us from Las Cruces to inform that he will seek the Dem nod for the state House seat that Rep. Joni Gutierrez has decided to leave. She wants to become the next Democratic National Committeewoman from NM. McCamley sought the Dem southern congressional nod in '08 but lost to Harry Teague. He was back in 2010, running as the Dem candidate for a Public Regulation Commission seat but failed to score. Is this his time? Well, is there going to be a strong Hispanic contender joining McCamley for this House seat? If not, maybe it is his turn. (R's tell me to keep them in mind for the Joni seat. It leans Dem, but they say they have a shot. Let's see who they field)....

And the very long shot hopes of the GOP of taking the majority in the NM House in the November election is growing even longer as the legal machinations over redistricting continue in the courts. The AP has the latest twist which favors the Dems....

Workmen's comp Judge Victor Lopez, seeking the Dem nod for an open seat on the NM Court of Appeals and competing with ABQ District Court Judge Monica Zamora, checks in with this news:

The Secretary of State’s office has approved the Judge's application for public financing. He filed contributions of $5.00 from over 1650 individuals and also submitted about 4500 petition signatures to qualify him for the June primary ballot..The Secretary of State will distribute $85,748 to Judge Lopez’s campaign to be used for campaign related expenses.

Judge Zamora is not taking public financing. If she raises much more than $85,ooo that could be a key factor in the race

GOODBYE, BOITANO

The GOP State Senate caucus comes with this retirement news of a veteran ABQ lawmaker:

The consummate citizen legislator, State Senator Mark Boitano (R- 18 Bernalillo) said that after 16 years of serving in the Senate, he will not seek re-election and will step aside at the end of his term to given another New Mexican the opportunity to serve the constituents in the Northeast Heights of Albuquerque.

I have always believed in term limits, and after four terms in the Senate, it is time to move on and allow others to continue the fight in the Senate to improve New Mexico. I have a real estate business to run, a wife and children I love and want to spend more time with, and I will begin looking for new opportunities to serve my community and state.

This is the fifth Senator of the 42 to retire this cycle--three R's and two Dems. That seems a bit high, but these guys have been around a while. But there's no denying Santa Fe is more confrontational and just not as much fun anymore, according to many who have hung out there for years.

Boitano worked hard to get Senate sessions broadcast on the Web and was instrumental in getting charter schools going in the state. Boitano was a conservative and true to his ideals, but never bought into the "punitive" wing of the party that has isolated itself from the New Mexico mainstream.

There is now a nice opportunity now for a new face to take over Boitano's NE Heights Senate seat. Or maybe a not so new one. GOP State Rep. Conrad James appears to be on his way to having the race of his life for re-election because of new boundaries for his NE Heights district. He lives in Boitano's district. Could he make the switch? Let's watch and see about that and other names that emerge.

POLLING WITH HEATHER

We all know the problems GOP US Senate candidate Heather Wilson is having in the polls--(at least regular readers of this space know). Despite being far better known than her prospective Democratic opponents, the former five term ABQ congresswoman consistently trails Dem Rep. Martin Heinrich and fares little better against Hector Balderas.

Team Heather is pushing back furiously against such polls, arguing that the surveys when interpreted properly show the race a dead heat. But that's not all that great, either. And instead of coming with her own head to head poll for the general election Wilson comes with a campaign poll showing her trouncing her lone remaining rival in the GOP Senate nomination battle-Greg Sowards.That's not exactly what you call news.

Why Wilson would need a poll showing the obvious--she leads the unknown Sowards 81% to 10%--is a good question, Maybe she just wants to show that Sowards is unlikely to get 20 percent of the delegates at the March GOP preprimary convention and thus be denied an official spot on the June primary ballot (he could still get on by garnering additional petition signatures).

Maybe she wants to have a poll out there that shows her beating someone decisively. Or maybe she just wants to show Sowards--who has over $600, 000 of mostly his own cash to spend--not to go there. The poll was taken shortly after Lt. Governor John Sanchez dropped his GOP Senate bid this month.

And in the category of stuff you need to know: Wilson's polling is being done by Public Opinion Strategies where Nicole McCleskey, wife of Susana political adviser Jay McClesky works. It's a small world.

Roll Call ranks the race for the open US Senate here a "toss-up." We have it "lean Dem." Our ranking is based on the early state strength of Obama, the turnout model for a presidential year, the initial polling showing the better-known Wilson trailing or in a tie with her lesser known Dem challengers and the apparent decision by national Republicans not to seriously contest for the ABQ US House seat.

CONSPIRACY WATCH

Don't warm up the black helicopters but do put up a warning flare for the ABQ Journal's Bruce Daniels who sometimes describes us--aptly for the most part--as "genetically conspiratorial." Our latest venture to the far side has us wondering about the gay hairdresser story. Said hairdresser is no longer doing the gubernatorial coiffure because, he says, Susana does not believe in gay marriage.

The story has been played to the hilt. It straightens out (no pun intended) her bona fides with GOP social conservatives. They were upset--especially one Reverend Smotherman--with her recent appointment of a gay man to the Public Regulation Commission. Funny how the gay hairdresser story came along right after that one went sour on Susana. Well, don't warm up the black helicopters, we're just sayin'...

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A Final Look At Session 2012; The Real Story From The Top Sources In New Mexico Politics, Plus: Latest Exits And Entrances In Roundhouse Races

2012-02-27T00:59:00.039-07:00

The echoes are again bouncing around the Santa Fe Roundhouse. The janitors are buffing the floors, removing the last of the scuff marks from the sometimes bustling, but also often dormant 30 day legislative session. The lawmakers--all 112 of them--are home either preparing for election bids or announcing their retirements. Now with a couple of weeks of separation from the action, the Alligators, Wall-leaners, and insiders are ready to provide the final perspective and political reality you won't get anywhere else. Off we go as we present their take:

THE NEW ZEITGEIST

The fabled Roundhouse is starting to feel like a hamster wheel, where there is a lot of running around but no direction. In the 2011 session legislators gave Governor Martinez a pass on any kind of agenda since she was entirely new to state government and had been in office only a couple of weeks. But goodwill fell off when she began taking credit for the Legislature's budget, and for bringing the state back from the brink of financial ruin which she calls a "structural deficit." Under the State Constitution there is no deficit spending in New Mexico, and Legislators dislike others taking creditor for their work even when it's a new and green Governor.

A BUDGET IS BORN

In a 30 day session the budget is paramount and for 2012 the Legislature passed a budget which enjoyed rare unanimous support in the House, and ultimately strong bipartisan support. Governor Martinez did not take an active role in the budget process, and tinkered around the edges. The Governor seems uninterested in the tedious budget work of spreadsheets and accounting. The Governor's input was again delegated to Chief of Staff Keith Gardner, who is "the decider" for all policy except when he is overruled by the Fifth Floor and that man behind the curtain (political advisor Jay McCleskey). Ultimately, the budget this year again reflects the handiwork of Appropriations Chairman Kiki Saavedra and Vice-Chair Lucky Varela in the House, and Democratic John Arthur Smith in the Senate. In the past Speaker Lujan played a key role in the budget, but not in this--his last session.

DRIVER'S LICENSES FOREVER!

Governor Martinez was passionate again on driver's licenses, but her only achievement is to have Democratic legislative votes for Republicans to exploit in the November election. Exhaustive efforts by some legislators to forge compromise, including several Republicans who see the folly and harm in gridlock, fell on deaf ears upstairs. But Governor Martinez remains unyielding to any middle ground. So as predicted New Mexico will endure another year with a badly flawed system that requires immediate change. Unless the Senate goes Republican in 2013, an outcome nobody realistically expects, Gov. Martinez will eventually have to compromise, or finish her term with the state exactly as she found it on this issue. The criticism remains that the Governor in unable to transition away from campaigning long enough to govern.

WHAT BILLS?

Even one of the Governor's closest allies--Sen. Rod Adair--called this the least accomplished session he has experienced, and most everyone in the capitol would agree. In a 30 day session the Governor essentially controls the agenda by executive messages authorizing legislation. But in the second week Gov. Martinez withdrew 34 of the 44 messages she had issued authorizing legislation. The House allowed the Governor to back out of her own messages to deal with the tidal wave of bills introduced on the broad messages as originally worded. The Senate wouldn't accept the Governor's retreat, and that left the entire session agenda in limbo. Nobody can recall a Governor withdrawing executive messages much less withdrawing almost all authorizations well into a short session. The Executive agenda seemed both an afterthought, and rehash of issues from 2011, which generated no enthusiasm or heat from any legislators or the public.

Education initiatives died in committee or from last minute filibusters after slow played. The designee for Secretary of Education is unlikely to ever be confirmed by the Senate, and there seems to be no consensus for any education reforms. Election year tax breaks were received skeptically. Democrats managed to place the Governor in a box by passing legislation which would give a tax break to New Mexico business corporations, but which would also require a few non-New Mexico "big box" corporations to give up a favored tax advantage by "combined reporting."

Strained relations between the Governor and legislators, Senate and House, Democrat and Republican, did not improve over the session. The mood was one of resignation to the status quo. Moderate Republican legislators (Sens. Asbill and Harden) are already announcing retirement rather than battle the "Fifth Floor" in June. The coming elections will inevitably strain relations ever more, and the next two years look to be even more contentious.

EXASPERATED SUSANA

An emerging perception here in Santa Fe is that the Governor's office doesn't seem to care much that it has not moved any kind of agenda despite two sessions under the belt. She may be counting on the 2012 elections to change her fortunes, but the Governor could use help with her math. The ruling by the state Supreme Court on redistricting during the session took the air out of those hopes. The Governor's outright exasperation with the political process suggest she is now just waiting on a call from Washington or the Justice Department and the state has seen that story before.

HOUSE VACUUM

Leaderless House Democrats operated as 36 free agents with the Speaker ill and retiring. Discussions about new leadership were discouraged so as not to jinx a possible Republican takeover of the House. House Republicans are showing two distinct camps consisting of older experienced members in the leadership, and the younger members and freshmen trying to move legislation and assume leadership roles. Votes in the House were unpredictable and unexplainable by any partisan alignments.

SENATE SIDE UP

The Senate remains the strong-willed chamber, and now even more solidly in control of the moderate Democrats and Republicans. Senator Smith and his Senate Finance committee kept to their tight budgets, and ultimately stood in the way of the Governor's goal for more tax cuts and greater spending on capital projects. Senator Smith also gave the Governor a way out of her misguided veto last session to assure shore up the unemployment fund now and not just kick the can again down the road. The business sector had few initiatives this session, and seems equally perplexed about how to get the state moving again.

Many of the Governor's cabinet appointees were confirmed by the Senate this session. Then there was the odd scenario of the Senate confirming the Governor's appointees at the same time the Governor was trying to un-appoint her appointees over the State Fair casino fiasco, and amid allegations of the pay to play deal at the Downs at ABQ. As with the executive messages the Senate seems unwilling to keep allowing the Governor mulligans.

WAITING FOR SALVATION

Santa Fe is waiting for something to happen, and someone to make things happen, but nobody now knows where it will come from. The 2012 session was mostly a walk down memory lane full of nostalgia. Tributes to Speaker Lujan and his 38 years in the House, tributes to other retiring legislators, and even tributes to former legislators. That nostalgia is also for the past days of milk and honey, and for a time of strong, experienced and skilled political leadership in the capitol.

Now that's what you call the real story and then some, and you didn't even have to pay for it. Well done Gators. If you were clueless about what really happened up there, you aren't anymore. They don't call this place "The Home of New Mexico Politics" for nothing.

LOST IN THE WEEDS

Meanwhile, not to be too hard on them, but the ink-stained wretches doing the heavy lifting for their conservative editors seem confused and baffled over what happened in Santa Fe. They come with a marathon 2,300 word review that attempts to explain why certain legislation did not pass, but the review soon gets lost in the weeds. The problem? The conservative press can't seem to separate the Governor's good polling from the administration's lack of political acumen. Or just doesn't want to.

Well, at least the state's largest newspaper gave it a stab. The bloggers--some who now call themselves "journalists" and who are firmly in the Susana camp--simply do not report on mishaps that afflict the Fourth Floor. We are reminded of the time when we said one of them could very well end up working for Susana. The howls of juvenile self-righteousness were enough to scare a coyote. But our prediction was indeed accurate. They are working for the Administration, they just aren't getting an official state paycheck.

NOT MUCH FIGHTING
Rep. O'Neill
ABQ Dem State Rep. Bill "The Fighting Irishman" O'Neill apparently won't suffer a head bashing from the Governor's political machine after all. O'Neill has opted out of a re-election bid for his seat and instead will seek the Dem nod for the state Senate seat held by Dede Feldman. She announced her retirement Friday.

O'Neill's House district in the NE Heights and North Valley is considered a swing district and his defiance of Martinez on repealing the law that allows undocumented immigrants to get a driver's licenses put him squarely in the sights of the Guv's political operatives. But not now. O'Neill will start his Senate nomination bid as the front runner. Former Dem Party executive director Laura Sanchez, an attorney with the Natural Resources Defense Council, says she is also running so this sets up a pretty good race if Sanchez can come up with financing from environmental and women's groups she is close to. As an incumbent and with time short, O'Neill will have an advantage in that department.

However, Dem activist and Sandia Labs environmental consultant Chris Catechis told me late Sunday that he is just about ready to get in the race. His wife is state director for northern Congressman Ben Ray Lujan. An entrance by Catechis would make for two Anglos and one Hispanic contender for the nomination. It's getting more interesting by the day.

The Feldman Senate seat is Dem performing so no R's need apply, but the O'Neill House seat is now in play and offers the R's a realistic opportunity for a pick-up. Same goes for the seat of Dona Ana County Dem State Rep. Joni Gutierrez who has announced her retirement from the House. She will make a run for Democratic National Committeewoman from NM, a position being vacated by Mary Gail Gwaltney.

Earlier, GOP State Senators Vern Asbill of Carlsbad and Clint Harden of Clovis announced they are retiring. Both seats are expected to stay in the R camp in November.

There will be a number of new faces in the Legislature next year, but analysts say the prevailing dynamic seems destined to remain gridlock. The House has been favorable towards some of the major legislative goals of the Governor. The Senate has not and thus you have the fewest number of bills passing in the recent legislative session than anytime since the 70's.

But, remember, there are many conservatives who supported Martinez who do not want a bunch of bills passing, Gridlock to them is nirvana. the fewer bills passed, the better. Fun for some. Not so much for others.

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Obama Team Tends To The Garden Here; Senate Race Impact Eyed, Plus: A Police Chief Who Wants Driver's Licenses For The Undocumented

2012-02-24T00:59:00.015-07:00

Two Chairs
Early polling has President Obama in very good shape for re-election in New Mexico (he has a 15 point polling lead over Romney), good enough that on a recent Western swing he flew right over us, but top Dems here say he isn't taking the state for granted. They point to an ABQ visit this month by VP Joe Biden and the extensive ground game that his campaign is setting up here.

Also making a stop here this week was Rep. Debbie Wasserman Schulz, the feisty chairwoman of the Democratic National Committee. She is shown here with NM Dem Party Chairman Javier Gonzales a a fund-raiser at ABQ's Scalo restaurant. We call the chairwoman feisty because of her numerous journeys into the talk pits of cable TV. The Florida lawmaker can hold her own.

The Prez race is all about turnout. While the campaign will harvest Obama's time and put him in states that are tight, we will see a steady parade of surrogates to keep Democratic juices flowing and to make sure they head to the polls in November.

My top analysts do not expect the president to repeat his 2008 Bernalillo County performance when he won by a stunning 60,000 votes, but they say even a victory of half that margin puts him in the driver's seat.

This appears to be the first presidential election since the 90's when New Mexico will not be considered a swing state. Unless the polling tightens up in the months ahead that could mean a lot less aerial bombardment from our TV screens. The state is looking a lot more like 2008 than the cliffhanger years of 2000 or 2004.

On my recent visit to Washington, Mo Ellithee and Peter Brodnitz, consultants to US Senate candidate Hector Balderas told me that presidential performance will have a profound impact on the race for the open US Senate seat here. "Don't underestimate it," declared Brodnitz as he rattled off a series of polling examples from the past that buttressed his point.

And that's another reason why in the very early going we have the Senate contest here ranked "lean Dem."

By the way, we had lunch with the consultants at the storied Monocle, a stone's throw from the US Senate office buildings. Despite being a lifelong Washington area resident, Ellithee told us it was the first time he had ever been to the Monocle and thanked us for the suggestion. Glad to do it, Mo. Just don't ask us how Hector can raise a million bucks to match the $1.4 million Martin Heinrich has banked. That's above our pay grade.

A THREE WAY

Make it a three way race for the Dem nod for the ABQ Public Regulation Commission seat being vacated by Dem Jason Marks:

Cynthia Hall announced her candidacy for Public Regulation Commissioner in District 1 to a group of supporters gathered at her home in the North Valley. She is an attorney on leave from her employment at the PRC, where she has worked as Associate General Counsel and Staff Attorney over the past three years. She was formerly a Staff Attorney at the Public Service Commission, a predecessor of the PRC.

Hall joins State Rep. Al Park and Bernalillo County Assessor Karen Montoya in seeking the nomination for the $90,000 a year job. Dems are favored to keep the seat on the five member panel that has been riddled with controversy. Chris Ocksrider is an announced GOP contender.

Even though it's a PRC race you have to wonder if Park's cave-in to Governor Martinez over repealing the law that allows undocumented immigrants to get a driver's license will play a role in the contest. As chairman of House Judiciary Park tried to broker a compromise with Martinez, but she hung tough and Park ended up voting with the GOP Governor. He also voted for the repeal in a prior legislative session. At one point in is career Park was known as a liberal, but no longer.

WAKE UP CALL?

Reader Jim McClure says of the planned layoffs of up to 800 employees of Los Alamos National Labs:

I hope the budget cuts at Los Alamos will be a wake-up call for New Mexico to start building an actual economy. Fighting for our place at the government trough is a necessary short-term strategy, but we need some savvy economic development planning and commitment by elected officials. I'd like to see our largely invisible economic development officials push to improve the overall business climate rather than just granting tax breaks to favored industries. Economic development is an ideal issue for Rs if they can recruit some candidates for the legislature. National lab layoffs also are an opportunity for education. How about a fast-track program to certify some of those surplus techies as science teachers?

THE FUTURE

Hey, Susana, don't be so sure that repealing driver's licenses for undocumented immigrants is always going to be so popular:

Los Angeles police chief Charlie Beck thinks that all Californians should be allowed to obtain state-issued drivers licenses--even undocumented immigrants. He made his position clear at a meeting with Los Angeles Times editors and reporters.

That's it for this week. Thanks for stopping by and for making us New Mexico's number one political web site. We appreciate it.

Reporting from Albuquerque, I'm Joe Monahan

This is the home of New Mexico politics.

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The Big Boast: Arnold-Jones Says She Will Rout Foes For ABQ GOP Congress Nod At Pre-Primary, Plus: Tactics Of Susana Chief Of Staff Draw Attention

2012-02-23T00:58:00.027-07:00

Arnold-Jones, Smith & Lewis
Janice Arnold-Jones says it's no jive this time. She predicted big things when she ran for the 2010 GOP Guv nomination, but it didn't pan out. Now she is running for the GOP nomination for the ABQ congressional seat and predicting she is going to sweep aside challengers Dan Lewis and Gary Smith at the critical March 17 pre-primary convention:

We are poised to take well over 50% of the delegates on March 17th. This is a true testament of the hard work that our volunteers have put in and the momentum our campaign continues to build. I am humbled by those who have said they are standing up to take our country back. They are standing up to elect a true representative. They are standing up to support our campaign!

Janice is basing her 50% prediction on the results of the Bernalillo County GOP convention this past weekend where delegates were elected to the state party preprimay, but its not always easy to assess who those delegates will finally favor.

Her opponents scoffed at her prediction. Rhead Story, campaign manager for retired Army Seargent Gary Smith, declared:

No one knows with certainty how the delegates selected at the Bernalillo County convention will vote at the pre-primary. Janice's crystal ball appears to have some cracks in it.

The campaign of ABQ City Councilor Dan Lewis pushed back against Arnold-Jones with this:

No one outside of Janice's campaign believes she is anywhere near 50%. The actual election is a month away. We're the campaign taking a conservative message that is resonating with voters. We have out-raised her by more than 4 to 1.

Arnold-Jones is in need of a shot of momentum. Her campaign cash account was a mere $20,000 at last report while City Councilor Lewis had over $100,000 banked and Smith has been fueling his effort with a $125,000 personal loan. But none of these contenders is armed to the teeth for a seat that is now seen tipping decidedly toward the Dems. Rep. Martin Heinrich (D) is vacating it after two terms to seek the open US Senate seat.

Arnold-Jones, a former GOP state representative, has other problems lurking. She has engaged in bloody combat with the likes of former Bernalillo County Sheriff Darren White over her support of the death penalty. She is perceived by party conservatives as "too moderate" for today's GOP. And she does not have warm relations with the "Fifth Floor,"--Governor Martinez political operative Jay McCleskey, a close friend of White's.

And where are Jay and the Martinez operatives on this race? We asked a GOP Alligator:

They are on the sidelines. They are writing the race off as belonging to the Dems.

2010 GOP nominee Jon Barela, a favorite of Jay's, toyed with the idea of running for the seat, but decided against. That was widely interpreted as a towel throw by the R's when it comes to the general election. However, if polling shows the eventual Dem nominee is in serious peril, the wallets could open for the GOP contender.

If Janice's bravado is justified and she pulls out a big preprimary win, will the money she needs for TV and mail follow? History says maybe. Other candidates have posted big pre-primary wins only to stagnate. If the money doesn't come, Janice will have the top spot on the June primary ballot, but little else to show for her victory. And what if she fails to reach the 50% after her big boast? Well, Dan Lewis and Gary Smith won't forget.

THE RULES

It takes 20 percent of the delegates at the pre-primary to win an official spot on the June primary ballot. If you don't get it, you can still get on the ballot by getting additional petition signatures. However, no candidate in the history of pre-primary conventions has ever won the June primary when failing to reach the critical 20 percent threshold at the preprimary.

LOS ALAMOS FOLLOW UP

Reader reaction to the job cuts up at Los Alamos Labs--up to 800 jobs will disappear this year. From a Santa Fe Wall-Leaner:

No one likes lay offs, however, Los Alamos is the "mother" of double dipping in this country. Lab employees retire one day and go under contract the next...doing the same job they left. You mention $150k jobs..that was the past. Presently, retired/contract employees are now pulling down over $225k a year. Would it be possible to keep those employed and eliminate the double dipper?

A DC reader adds:

Per today's blog, there were major layoffs at LANL in the mid 1990s when we were in a similar financial situation. I've attached a link to an article that references it.

There were about 175 layoffs in 1995 at Los Alamos, but in this round we are looking at many more. Also, Los Alamos management is prepping us for more in the future by saying they expect at best flat budgets in the years ahead.

And another:

The entire federal government is facing cuts and every federal agency has had to trim to the bone. How is Republican US Senate candidate Heather Wilson going to make the labs the one exception to that trend and fend off the tea party? The public voted in members of congress in '10 that demanded massive cuts and now we are seeing the result of that. You get what you pay (vote) for.

Ron Goldwyn writes us from Philadelphia on another subject:

Joe, You've probably heard from a few folks on this, but Richard Romero ran against Heather Wilson in 2002 and 2004, not 2004-06. One reason I know is that I was Richard's volunteer press secretary for the last month of that 2002 campaign. One thrill was working with Duke City legend Jim Hulsman on a letter-to-editor/endorsement of his old friend....

Thanks for that correction, Ron, and look us up when you head West. Now back to the action...

KEITH WATCH
Gardner
You can stop calling him "The Gentle Giant."

Dem State Rep. Eliseo Alcon is saying he was given unusually rough treatment by Gov. Martinez Chief of Staff Keith Gardner during the final days of the recent legislative session. He says the towering Gardner started a tussle over Alcon's support of the Guv supported retention bill for third graders. Alcon says Gardner was giving a dressing down to a fellow Dem lawmaker and he told that lawmaker he didn't have to listen to Gardner. He says the staff chief threw an insult his way and that he did not perceive Gardner was joking.

We also have a report from a Senior Alligator that there was another final hours confrontation between Gardner and a high ranking Senate lawmaker. That one was over funding the state unemployment fund. Gardner is not commenting, but insiders say the confrontation was widely discussed among other senators.

THE FRUSTRATION FACTOR

Gardner, no longer quite perceived as the "Gentle Giant," a moniker a friendly press awarded him when he was first appointed chief of staff, was a House Republican leader from Roswell before Martinez tapped him for the top staff post. Objective observers agree that the key points of Martinez's legislative agenda have been largely ignored or defeated by the Dem-controlled Legislature, no doubt a source of frustration for Gardner who has one of the highest pressure jobs in state government. The insider scoop in Santa Fe has it that Gardner is in charge of policy until Guv political operative Jay McCleskey says he isn't.

The Fourth (and Fifth) Floors frustration is now going to play out in the upcoming legislative elections, with the Guv's political operatives set to launch their slash and burn operations against a variety of legislators in hopes of tearing down the stone wall they keep bashing their heads against in Santa Fe. They will have a ton of money to do it, too, as the SusanaPac is flush with cash. Unfortunately, the campaign will not be about state economic policies or job creation, but on the hot button issue of whether a politician supports repealing the law that allows undocumented immigrants to get a state driver's license.

One senses a growing vexation by the Governor and her allies in the conservative press. She spoke with some optimism about the results of the legislative session, but the obvious can't be ignored and was not pushed under the rug by all Republicans. Notably, GOP State Sen. Rod Adair called it the biggest "do nothing" session in his many years at the Roundhouse. He likened Susana's legislative rejection to a political vendetta by the Democrats. It is that kind of emotional rush that R's have based their campaigns on here and with some success. But there is risk for Martinez. Unleashing the dogs of war and winning is one thing, but if she doesn't win, the sessions of the future could make the do nothing session of 2012 look like a veritable beehive.

STATE OF THE STATE

This is turning out to be a smallish governorship for a variety of reasons. The decline in the state's economic fortunes makes big moves difficult; Martinez was elected on a throw the bums out platform, not advancement of a particular legislative agenda; the GOP economic agenda remains narrow (tax cuts now, tax cuts forever) and the Governor, a former prosecutor brings prosecutorial zeal to the capital, not the art of dealing over legislation or as President Bush the elder might say, she lacks "the vision thing."

Yet Martinez's popularity remains high. Why? Veteran pollster Brian Sanderoff says it is not as if the public is focused on what is going on in Santa Fe. "They barely pay attention if there isn't a scandal or some other sensational event," he said. That benefits Martinez as the political class declare her administration unproductive, but not the voting public--not yet.

And there remains the uniqueness of the gubernatorial persona. At a weekend service at God's House in ABQ where Martinez observed Black History Month and where we were among those in attendance, she focused her remarks almost entirely on becoming the nation's first Hispanic female governor. Appropriate remarks for the event, but it drove home the point that the symbolism of this Governor is very important in ethnically diverse New Mexico and that the novelty has not worn off. We see it as a crucial element in her retaining her popularity in the opinion polls. The other reasons being that there has been no organized and paid for media attacks on Martinez and the one scandal she has dealt with--the Downs at ABQ deal--has not yet brushed directly against the gubernatorial door.

But symbolism can only take you so far as this Governor is finding out. Soaring approval ratings based on substantive economic and social positions are a much different story than ratings that spring from symbolism. Without a comprehensive and prioritized legislative plan, the Governor is driven back to the small--the license repeal--as the raison d'être for voters to overturn the ruling Dems at the Roundhouse.

Not that we or anyone should dismiss her chances of success. We live in a time of large issues, but also one in which political campaigns are midget-sized conceptually as well as anti-cerebral. When you win one of them, it is often a Pyrrhic victory--"a victory with such a devastating cost to the victor that it carries the implication that another such victory will ultimately cause defeat."

And so it goes....This is the home of New Mexico politics.

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The Los Alamos Layoff Debacle; Sudden But Not Surprising, Plus: Balderas And His One Big Chance, And: R's Appear To Back Off ABQ Congress Seat

2012-02-22T00:58:00.036-07:00

We took our trip to Washington to visit the state's congressional delegation last week sensing that the foot was about to drop on New Mexico and wrote of it extensively on Tueday's blog, but the suddenness of the announcement that major layoffs are coming to Los Alamos Labs startled us and surely the state. (The AP report is here.)

It's an economic debacle for a large swath of northern New Mexico, dependent as it is on the over $2 billion that come into the nuclear weapons development complex. The storied history of the Labs and its development of the first Atomic bomb is stuff for the ages. For over sixty years the facility has been mostly on a growth curve. That era is now over as LANL says it expects the 400 to 800 layoffs it announced Tuesday to be a forerunner of a permanently smaller lab force. The fiscal 2013 budget is $300 million lower than the previous year. A second grader can do the math. 800 layoffs would be over 10 percent of the labs 7,600 permanent work force. All told with contractors and others LA employs 11,127. It is the heart and lungs of much of the northern economy.

Those being "voluntarily separated" this time are expected to get healthy separation packages, but they will no longer be drawing those $150,000 plus annual salaries that help prop up retail sales and housing prices in Los Alamos, Rio Arriba and Santa Fe counties. No one can say how many indirect jobs will be lost as a result of Tuesday's announcement, but it will be significant.

You can tie the Los Alamos layoffs directly to the retirement of NM Senator Pete Domenici. The GOP lawmaker protected Los Alamos like one of his children. He staved off the shut down of a multi-billion dollar facility to handle plutonium, but with him gone the Obama administration and Congress have moved and there is no one in the state's congressional delegation with enough clout to stop them.

GOP US Senate contender Heather Wilson has been on the Los Alamos story like white on rice. She laid blame for the layoffs directly at the doorstep of the Dem President and the state's congressional delegation which she hopes to join:

....That commitment included replacing a 60-year-old facility at Los Alamos for handling plutonium. In his new budget, however, President Obama has broken that commitment. And as a result, an estimated 1,000 jobs will be killed for 10 years in Los Alamos.

Heather's quotes on the delegation are on Tuesday's blog in which she says the state "needs someone to fight for our national laboratories." They were made last week in response to proposed budget cuts.

Wilson will now be pressed on how she could do better for the labs as a freshman Senator--perhaps in the minority and with no seniority. How exactly would she "fight" to keep the cash coming? Same for Dem. Rep. Martin Heinrich who would enter the Senate as a newbie if he were to win the fall prize.

Governor Martinez pointed to both sides of the political aisle as she assigned blame for the Los Alamos layoffs:

She also believes these cuts are yet another by-product of the dysfunction in Washington, D.C., and the inability to appropriately prioritize national defense and national security in federal spending decisions.

But now it's time for the Guv to partner with the congressional delegation in a nonpartisan matter and try to hold the line against additional layoffs. (Now you know why we have been pounding the table for the NM Spaceport and its potential to create hundreds of scientific positions we are losing).

The budget for Sandia National Labs in ABQ, also an over $2 billion federally-funded nuclear weapons facility, is not as imperiled as Los Alamos. Initial budget projects show it getting an increase next year, but gang buster growth--barring a new economic boom--is not in store. It is less politically painful for Washington to hit Los Alamos. Sandia is lifeblood for ABQ, the state's largest city and where elections are most often decided.

Back up north, Dem Congressman Ben Ray Lujan will be on the defensive from his Republican rival over the lab layoffs, but he has such a heavy leaning Dem district that he will escape most of the political heat. Still, he has to watch his back in this freshly fragile economic environment.

As we've been writing, this is a new economic era for New Mexico. Nothing is sacrosanct, not even the historic national labs so closely intertwined with American national security. History is being cruel to us. We are losing our Washington seniority in the middle of the worst downturn since the 30's. Any other time and the consequences may not have been as great, but now the very nature of this state's future is on the line.

The state motto says "It grows as it goes." In light of the Los Alamos news we ask, "Does it?"

INSIDE THE SENATE RACE
Hector Balderas
The Democratic race for the US Senate nomination is nearing what could be either its climax or a new beginning. On March 10 the state pre-primary convention will be held and it is there that conventional wisdom holds that State Auditor Hector Balderas must make a stand or fold his hand. We wrote as much this week, drawing this response from Preciliano Martin in Raton:

Joe, your bias here is getting obvious when you blogged: "US Rep. Martin Heinrich, the likely Dem nominee"

You might try and not be so bold. Hector has a real good chance of being the Democratic nominee, his star in this race is rising. Watch for the state pre-primary convention March 10th.

Well, we don't see it as bias as much as political reality. Early polling, money raising and opinionated insiders and Alligators all have Heinrich leading.

However, Balderas has been relying on grassroots support and that's what he'll need at the pre-primary convention to shake this race up and get him back in serious contention. All the better if he beats Heinrich, but if he can keep it within a couple of points that could also revive his fund-raising and his candidacy. Even top level Balderas aides acknowledge his need for a powerful pre-primary performance so it's not untoward to call Heinrich the likely nominee. We just need to clarify that the assessment is subject to change come March 10.

As for Heinrich, he is drawing the battle lines over two key issues that will be at stake when the Dem nominee faces off with probable GOP winner Heather Wilson:

As your next U.S. Senator from New Mexico, I will fight any effort to privatize these crucial programs, and will always stand on the side of America’s seniors when Social Security and Medicare are at risk.

We've been down this road with Heather before when as a congresswoman she flirted with the idea of privatizing Social Security and Medicare, if only briefly. Since the economic dive seniors have been even more dependent on these programs and Wilson could once again find herself playing defense. Here's the 2005 quote the Dems will try to use to pin her down:

"Wilson refuses to be pinned down on whether she would support the type of privatization strategy proposed by Bush -- Wilson refused to discuss the issue Tuesday." [Albuquerque Tribune, 2/25/05] against the wall:

Later in a 2004 debate with Dem Richard Romero, her rival for the House seat, Wilson gave a one word response when he asked her if she was for privatization. "No." she declared. Romero failed to follow up, a mistake the Dems are unlikely to make again....

Speaking of Richard Romero, the former State Senate President Pro Tem, who ran two unsuccessful races against Heather in 2002 and 2004, what's he up to now? From the campaign news mill:

As a former Democratic nominee for Congress, I recognize when the political climate is right, and now is the time to send a real progressive--Eric Griego--to Washington. I also know that running for office takes a lot of hard work and sacrifice. Eric is the right man for the job, and that's why I heartily endorse Eric Griego for Congress and ask you to join me for an event to support him.

Griego is tangling with former ABQ Mayor Marty Chavez and Bernalillo County Commissioner Michelle Lujan Grisham. And speaking of that.....

CONGRESS ACTION

It's a good time to bring you up to date on the current thinking on the race for the ABQ congressional seat which is being vacated by Heinrich. While on Capitol Hill in Washington last week we spoke with Roll Call and its reporter Kyle Trygstad:

New Mexico's 1st district, a battleground for more than a decade, is in danger of sliding off the radar for national Republicans in 2012. All eyes in Albuquerque are on a potentially nasty Democratic primary between three well-financed current or former elected officials. Given its recent voting history, a competitive open-seat race could still develop before November, but at this point Republicans view the race to replace Rep. Martin Heinrich as an uphill climb."It doesn't look like the Republicans are as positioned to put up as big of a fight for that seat as they have in the past, and that's a pretty dramatic development," said Joe Monahan, a plugged-in independent political analyst in New Mexico.

"You need a heavyweight Republican in this district now more than ever because the district has just gotten more blue."....Stephen Clermont, a Democratic pollster who has worked extensively in New Mexico, said the district, won by a Republican in 2006 and a Democrat in 2008, is no longer viewed by the parties as essential to winning the House majority. "The GOP can lose this seat again and still maintain House control," Clermont said. "Winning it will be a luxury for them. It is not a bellwether anymore."

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Dateline DC: New Mexico Delegation Faces New Era Without Old Strength; We Head East For A Close-Up View, Plus: More On State's Education Future

2012-02-21T00:59:00.006-07:00

Late Tuesday Los Alamos Labs announced it will layoff as many as 800 employees or over 10 percent of its work force.

Blogger & Bingaman
New Mexico's future problems with Uncle Sam won't be because the New Mexico congressional delegation doesn't have crackerjack staffs or that each member isn't intensely dedicated to the needs of the state. On both accounts they pass with flying colors. What ails us is a simple matter of seniority.

After our visit to Washington D.C. last week during which we visited with each of the five members, their staffs, pollsters, consultants and a couple of Potomac Alligators, we are on red alert for the consequences of another big drop in the state's seniority in the national capital that will take hold in 2013.

The first shoe dropped when 36 year veteran GOP Senator Domenici retired. At the end of the year, Jeff Bingaman, who will end his run with 30 years under his belt and who chairs the Senate Energy Committee, heads for the exits. Add to that the fact that our three US House members are all far down the pecking order and you have major worries about the immense federal funding this place gets. We rank first among the states in federal funds received per capita.

It's not just the demise of our seniority that is about to present the state with a major funding challenge. It is, as Senator Bingaman told me, "a new era of austerity."

"That era is with us for at least several years, regardless of who is elected president, " he remarked.

We pointed out Bingaman's recent news release that says the latest Obama budget flat lines Department of Energy funding into New Mexico at $4.4 billion, the same as the previous year. In this new era a flat budget is actually perceived as good news. Now that's a change from decades past when the delegation boasted of incremental increases and ever higher employment levels at the national labs as well as the defense establishment.

Insiders on the Hill say Los Alamos National Labs is more vulnerable to funding struggles that Sandia National Labs in ABQ and that's already noticeable in the Obama budget which takes the budget ax to a controversial nuclear replacement there. GOP US Senate candidate Heather Wilson came with hard-hitting language that could resonate mightily with New Mexicans who are well aware of how vital this cash flow is:

Not only is this bad for our country and its national security, it's bad for New Mexico and our economy. I believe we need a handful of people who will steward our nation's defense even in a time of peace. New Mexico needs someone who will fight for our laboratories--someone who understands our state's unique contributions to national security. Since Senator Pete Domenici retired, we have not had a voice in Washington in our delegation who really understands New Mexico's contributions to the national defense of our country. I intend to stand up for New Mexico and fight for our labs when I am elected to the US Senate...

That's vintage Heather. She's not about to bring a knife to a gunfight and a gunfight is what we are going to have in the US Senate. It's a powerful framing of the stakes of the 2012 election. Of course, her own record as a ten year congresswoman will also be put under the microscope.

There's a bit of a paradox to Wilson. She isn't warm and fuzzy and that's going to cause her problems getting elected, but it is the very lack of those qualities that make her willing to go to the mat and kick the necessary ass in the Senate that someone is going to have to do if we are to maintain our economy.

US Rep. Martin Heinrich, the likely Dem nominee, has also shown a fighting side. He was labeled a far leftie, but landed a spot on the House Armed Services Committee, fought to save at least a remnant of the flying Tacos at Kirtland Air Force Base and seems willing, like Wilson, to follow in the tradition of Dennis Chavez, Clinton Anderson and Pete Domenici and bring home the bacon.

Northern Rep. Ben Ray Lujan told me he continues to press for Los Alamos to diversify its mission in order to safeguard its budget. But that has been easier said than done.

It would be hype to call this year's presidential election one of the most important of our lifetimes, but not so for New Mexicans and the US Senate race. Bingaman's age of austerity means the knives in Washington are sharpened and ready for us. Our next Senator will indeed have to shed blood to get their way. Heck, they might even have to sacrifice an arm and a leg.

More throughout the week on our impressions from our Washington adventure so be sure to tune in

NOT MUCH SWINGING

As of now, New Mexico isn't doing much swinging when it comes to
the presidential race.

A new telephone survey of Likely New Mexico Voters finds the president earning 55% of the vote against both Rick Santorum and Mitt Romney. Santorum picks up 37% support. Four percent (4%) prefer some other candidate, and four percent (4%) more are undecided.

The poll was conducted Feb. 14.

READERS BLOG

Reader reaction continues to come in on that Friday commentary we did on the legislative defeat of a constitutional amendment that would have asked voters to use a portion of the state's $10 billion Permanent Fund and devote it to childhood education and development. The point being to try to directly attack the generational poverty and illiteracy which afflicts the state. Young Democrat Bryan Wilcox at the University of New Mexico came with this:

I wrote a paper on Hispanics' adherence to the American Dream with Professor Gabe Sanchez at UNM, one of the leading experts on Hispanic politics in the country. I found that the general Hispanic population actually values education more than non-Hispanics. Moreover, I found that 93.8 percent of Hispanics would like to see their children acquire a post high school education. 86 percent of respondents believe that their children will succeed in attaining a post high school education. In actuality, however, we know that Hispanics do not achieve the hopes of their families. In the paper I suggest that if Hispanics achieved the level of academic success their families hoped for, they would be much more educated than non-Hispanics. In a recent poll, education ranks the fourth most important issue for Hispanics with 16% claiming it is the most important issue.

Well. everyone says they want their kids to succeed, but the school dropout rate and illiteracy is higher among Hispanics than Anglos. Whatever the cause, an investment from the Permanent Fund to get at very young children of all races before they set down the path to failure still seems prudent to this corner and a lost opportunity in Santa Fe.

Here's another thought from Tina Barton of Santa Fe, a former elementary school teacher:

Monday's comments about students' parents are on target; many parents lack education themselves. In that vein, I was pleased to see First Gentleman Chuck Franco espousing one of his projects: literacy education for parents & other adults who cannot help students due to their own lack of education. As a former law enforcement official, Mr. Franco has undoubtedly seen some of the many social problems that can result from a lack of education.

Thanks, Tina. We did a story on Franco's involvement in the fight against illiteracy on January 31.

MOORES FOR SENATE

When ABQ GOP State Sen. Kent Cravens resigned to take a job with the oil and gas association the Alligators said look to his old friend Mark Moores to try to succeed him. And that's just what is sharpening, Moores, executive director fot eh NM Dental Association, Cravens' old job says he is seeking the GOP nod for the seat. That nomination is worth something. Lisa Curtis, a Democrat and president of the NM Trial Lawyers Association, managed to get appointed to the seat as the result of political maneuvers by the Bernalillo and Sandoval county commissions. Moores is making that an issue in the campaign.

Moores has experience in the GOP, having worked the political side former auto dealer Ken Zangara who played at the highest levels of the state party until business dealings gone back brought him down. Curtis has said she will seek election to the seat. Moores is the first Republican to announce. He did not mention the role Senator Curtis played in the recent legislative session killing a legal immunity bill for the NM Spaceport and for which she took stinging criticism. The Spaceport is located north of Las Cruces.

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Reader React On The Big Picture For New Mexico, Plus: Still Struggling In Santa Fe, And Senators Fete Lujan

2012-02-20T00:58:00.016-07:00

Our Friday take on the big picture for New Mexico in the aftermath of the legislative session drew a lot of reader response. We noted the defeat of a constitutional amendment that would have asked voters to decide if the state should tap the $10 billion Permanent Fund to finance programs for early childhood, offering the thought that the state is still in denial when it comes to the social conditions crisis that has such deep roots here. Let's see what some of that email came with.

Allen Sanchez, president and CEO of St. Joseph Community Health, who has been a key player in the legislative battle over the amendment, came with this:

Joe, You really hit the nail on the head. Many of our children are on a path that in the future will swallow up any effort to change course. The spiral is growing and no matter how big the future fund will be, it won't able to make a dent in the problem. We are already seeing that the investment we make in Kindergarten thru 12 is at risk because children arrive unprepared to take advantage of that investment....

For the record, St. Joseph Community Health is one of our current sponsors.

Here's a reader from ABQ who thought we had it all wrong:

You are whining sour grapes about the failure of a raid on the Permanent Fund to pour more money down the money pit of education. Two things must happen to improve education. Families of Indians, descendants of the Spanish settlers, and Mexican immigrants must embrace education as a value. Many do not. Immigration policy must reduce the number of children of Latino immigrant who are filling our schools with children who do not speak English. One result is schools that do not educate well the children of US citizens. No raid on the Permanent Fund will fix either problem.

That's strong stuff and we disagree. Embracing education as a value is simply not going to come out of the blue. This is a generational problem that cries out for attention from the state in the form of early intervention to foster the value of education. Sadly, parents have not been able to get the job done.

Sharon Kayne of NM Voices for Children, a group backing the amendment, came with this:

Great piece! Eloquent and hard-hitting at the same time. Thanks!

Another reader had this contribution:

Joe, The politics of keeping people poor and uneducated has been perpetuated by the ever present Patron System in NM. As long as keeping control is more important than improving the human condition, we will still act in many ways like a third world country. We have all the resources to lead the nation in energy, education and tourism, just not the will. It simply is not this way in every other state I have lived and worked in. My theme song throughout my life has been Bob Seger's "Against the Wind." As a "Naturalized New Mexican," coming here with the intent to help make this a better place, I will continue to work at making things better here. We can do this!

John Bussanich says State Senate Finance Committee Chairman John "Dr. No" Smith deserves some criticism:

Great comments in the "Big Picture" essay. It will be a happy day for NM when Dr. No leaves the scene. What a cold, wet blanket.

Bruce Wetherbee , a longtime union activist in Santa Fe, emailed:

Joe, Your article this morning was brilliant. The solution to many of our problems is people sitting down and compromising. Top of the list: improving the education of not just our kids but in too many cases their parents as well. Unfortunately the attempts to solve reading problems, miss the mark by not recognizing that there are thousands of young parents out there who cannot adequately read themselves. They and their children need not be punished but encouraged, They also need not to be embarrassed, as shame is probably the strongest deterrent to any advancement...

Thanks to all of the readers who emailed in their thoughts on what remains the defining issue of the state--breaking the generational cycle of poor education, poverty and other social ills that put us at the bottom of the barrel.

COUNTY CONVENTIONS

Insiders say at this weekend's Bernalillo County GOP convention probable US Senate nominee as expected trounced opponent Greg Sowards in getting delegates elected to next month's pre-primary convention. It will take 20 percent of the delegates there to get an official spot on the ballot or else Sowards will have to go out and get petition signatures to qualify. Based on what happened this weekend, that's what he will probably have to do.

As for the race for the US House, on the Dem side Marty Chavez and Eric Griego are said to have had the organizational edge over Michelle Lujan Grisham at the weekend county convention. On the GOP side it's also a three way race with Dan Lewis, Janice Arnold-Jones and Gary Smith running. Insiders say Arnold-Jones and Lewis have the convention advantage over newcomer Smith.

SANTA FE SCENE

How did it come to this?

The bloom is off Santa Fe a little," (longtime art dealer and Santa Fe businessman Gerald Peters said. "It isn't as popular as it once was. Santa Fe took its tourists for granted, while other communities became more attentive and competitive."

The ongoing Bear Market in the capital city has been so severe that even passage of bonds on the March 6 city election ballot to build police and fire facilities is in doubt.

One wonders if the Bull Market will ever return Santa Fe to its glory years.When we bumped into Santa Fe Mayor David Coss on the opening day of the Legislature he was rejoicing that city tax collections were flat, not down again. That's what you call lowering expectations.

SO LONG TO LUJAN

Both the state's US Senators took to the Senate floor to honor NM House Speaker Ben Lujan as the Legislature ended its 30 day session Thursday. Lujan, suffering from cancer, will not seek re-election to his Santa Fe state House seat. Dem Senator Jeff Bingaman said:

Throughout his long career, he's fought fiercely to ensure that the needs of his fellow New Mexicans were being addressed. He's worked hard to improve the quality of New Mexico’s school system. He's fought for the rights of our workers. And he's worked hard to strengthen our economy. I know I speak for all of his colleagues in our state legislature when I say that his service and strength throughout his recent personal difficulties have been an inspiration to all, and his fighting spirit will be missed..His exemplary work ethic is something which we should all aspire to,” Bingaman said.

You can view Bingaman's tribute here and one from Dem Senator Tom Udall here.

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Sputtering To An End: 30 Days In Santa Fe, Plus: Berry's Paseo Win, And: The Big Picture in New Mexico After This Session

2012-02-17T00:58:00.017-07:00

Kim-KRQE-TV photo)
It was Republican State Senator "Lightning Rod" Adair who came with the money quote as the 2012 New Mexico legislative session sputtered to an end:

"The biggest do-nothing year I've ever seen. We now, habitually, especially in the years of a Republican governor...come here and do nothing. And everybody knows the reason that is done is to try to prevent any achievements by the Republican governor. It's the very worst of motives," Adair said after lawmakers adjourned.

Well, Roswell's Rod has it half right. Some Dems do enjoy thwarting the GOP Guv, but it's her job to outfox them. That doesn't mean adopting an all or nothing attitude but playing the legislative game this former district attorney seems to hold in contempt. But the art of the deal is what makes the game clock tick. And, as we have blogged a number of times, "If you don't deal, you die."

Need proof? Look at how Republican Susana and the Dem-controlled Legislature compromised on the $5.6 billion budget. It sailed through and it isn't half bad. She noted that the gridlock in Santa Fe is nothing like that in Washington, DC where I am writing to you from as I finish up a political visit. And she's right. Getting a complete budget on time here is a figment of the past.

If Martinez had applied the same tactics to her education reforms and her bill to repeal the measure letting undocumented immigrants have driver's licenses, she might have walked away with some results.

The Guv's ideological zeal regarding these hot-button issues is understandable. It represents the often conservative views of her base followers, but not the New Mexican mainstream. She was elected in reaction to the excess of the previous Democratic administration, not on a conservative platform. Time is running short for her to realize that.

She has realized her political standing in negotiating with Dems two state budgets in her term, but fails to realize it in just about every other major legislative battle.

If Susana is playing to the national crowd and standing tough on everything but the budget because she is hoping to be the 2012 GOP Veep pick, so be it. That will all be over in August.
We will then see as she begins her final two years in office if she is ready to play for real. As Senator Adair pointed out, her foes are more than willing to thrown her to the mat. They will keep doing so until she comes up with some new moves.

The latest AP wrap on the session is here. And here is is a review of what happened to major issues.

PAVING PASEO

ABQ Mayor RJ Berry was one of the big winners of the legislative session, Lawmakers approved $30 million in funds to rebuild the busy Paseo Del Norte and I-25 interchange. The mayor botched the October election dealing with Paseo but he has made up for it by making his case in Santa Fe. We assume the Guv will approve of the funds and laud her fellow Republican. Now Berry will work on getting the Paseo rebuild shovel ready by October 2013--the date of the next mayoral election.

THE BIG PICTURE

Let's finish up this week with some big picture thinking about the state's future. The death of a certain piece of legislation prompts the following thoughts:

There's something Santa Fe agrees on no matter who is in charge--there will be no all-out war against poverty. There will be skirmishes, maybe a few fist fights, but the body politic--and perhaps the population--simply does not have the stomach to face off an enemy that is hundreds of years old and has the staying power of a cockroach.

The latest surrender came as State Senate Finance Committee Chairman John Arthur Smith, aka, "Dr. No," killed a planned constitutional amendment that would have asked voters if they would care to distribute additional funds from the state's $10 billion Permanent Fund for childhood education and development.

New Mexico has ranked at or near the bottom of the cellar in childhood poverty, child abuse, drug abuse, spousal abuse, literacy rates and teen pregnancy. (Yeah, Happy Valentine's Week to you, too). The list is overwhelming and seemingly defies solution. And there are no solutions--short term. But this constitutional amendment would have taken a stab at putting us on a long-term course to reverse our woeful ways.

We understand Dr. No's trepidation. As a lifelong fiscal conservative you expect him to squash any spending that could be construed as a gamble. But the good Doctor and his fellow conservatives in the Department of Finance, Legislative Fiance Committee and the Governor's office have a cupboard that is intellectually bare. They tell us what won't work, but they don't tell us what does.

Tax cuts won't pull us out. Selling the state jet won't do it. Shrinking government even more has nothing to do with the social condition crisis. And "doing more with less" is an oxymoron when dealing with a population that needs intervention, not benign neglect.

New Mexico will only muddle along in the decades ahead if it doesn't start taking some chances, or as Steve Jobs put it, "Think Different."

Thirty years ago in a state of a little over a million people, the dilemma was much less threatening. But today the state has over 2 million residents and the ranks of the ill-educated have grown by leaps and bonds as has the accompanying dysfunction. Just check out any edition of the 10 p.m news.

For a myriad of reasons New Mexico and its political class has been unable to summon the will to start a full-court press against the most obvious challenges it faces. The failure of this amendment--or even a more modest version--says we're still not ready to go to war.

This is the home of New Mexico politics.

Reporting to you this week from Washington, D.C. and Albuquerque, I'm Joe Monahan.

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It Won't Be "Welcome Home" For All Legislators; Primary Campaign Already Heating Up. Plus: VP Biden Here Today & Heinrich Leads Another Senate Poll

2012-02-16T00:59:00.024-07:00

The 30 day NM legislative session ended at noon Thursday. Among the last minute items to win approval was $30 million to rebuild ABQ's Paseo Del Norte intersection at I-25. The Guv's "social promotion" bill dealing with third grade students died.
Here's the AP wrap on legislative session 2012:

Lawmakers adjourned Thursday in an election-year session dominated by a clash of political wills between Republican Gov. Susana Martinez and Democrats controlling the Legislature. Key parts of the first-term governor's legislative agenda died upon adjournment, including educational initiatives and a proposal to stop New Mexico from issuing driver's licenses to illegal immigrants.
How did the major legislation fare at the session. Here is the scorecard.

Here's what some of the 112 legislators getting ready to leave Santa Fe today have to look forward to when they arrive home--or not.

This flyer (click to enlarge) is from Nicole Castellano who is challenging veteran Dem State Senator Phil Griego, 62, in the June primary. Sparks flew early in this race as Griego supporters pointed out that until a couple of years ago Castellano's husband Jim was a registered Republican. He is now a Dem who works for the state Public Regulation Commission. They are implying that Nicole will be too conservative for the sprawling six county northern district and perhaps too friendly with Republican Guv Susana.

But she fires back with the accusation that Phil's campaign coffers are laden with special interest cash that make him a poor representative for the many low-income Dem households in the district. Voters can judge for themselves by taking a look at Griego's finance reports.

We wont know for certain how many incumbent Dems and R's draw primary challengers until filing day March 20. That gives all the solons who are preparing for a noon adjournment of their day session today plenty of time to think about it.

As for the attack on Griego for receiving special interest money, do you find that very powerful? Voters eyes tend to glaze over when they hear about is as such money goes to both sides--from either business or labor. Castellano is going to have to have a sharper instrument if she is to break Griego's skin--not just give him a puncture wound.

IF POLLS COULD VOTE..

It looks like another very lean legislative session for Governor Martinez with few if any of her major legislative initiatives getting through the Dem-dominated Legislature and to her desk. But as lawmakers prepped for a noon adjournment of the 30 day session today, Susana received a consolation prize--a Rasmussen robocall poll that gives her a robust 66% approval rating.

That's got to give her a warm feeling even if the poll proves to be an outlier and has her a bit high. Her problem has been translating her popularity into legislative progress. Maybe after all the talk about her being on the 2012 GOP ticket as VP dies down, she will see things through a different light and in her 2013 session put her popularity to work.

The state GOP--as it should--jumped all over the Rasmussen survey and came with this from their spin room:

New Mexicans are standing with Governor Martinez as she fights to turn New Mexico around through education reforms, tax reforms to create more jobs, and rooting out corruption. And, yes, the strategy of Democrats to attack the Governor for standing strong on fighting to repeal the law that gives driver's licenses to illegal immigrants has been a complete failure. In fact, Governor Martinez earns a 58% approval rating among Hispanic voters...

That driver's license measure is dead and buried for a third legislative session in a row, the prime example of how a Guv's personal popularity does not always carry the day in the halls of the Roundhouse.

BIDEN HERE TODAY

Speaking of VP, the real deal will be in town today. Vice-President Joe Biden will conduct what Dems call a "grassroots event" in the ABQ Nob Hill area and then head for a fund-raiser in the North Valley for the Obama campaign.

Obama recently took a Western swing and visited Colorado, Arizona and Nevada, but he did not put wheels down in New Mexico. That got the Alligators wondering if the Obama campaign was feeling secure about their chances here.

On Capitol Hill in Washington where I am reporting to you from this week, Dem Congressman Martin Heinrich says he was glad to hear about the Biden visit and said he is urging the White House to come to the state as often as possible. He says he feels comfortable with the president's chances here but victory can't be taken for granted.

HEINRICH AHEAD AGAIN

That Rasmussen poll was another round of pretty good news for Heinrich. In a hypothetical US Senate match-up with Republican Heather Wilson he beats her 45% to 43%. The poll is within the margin of error so the race could be called a tie, except for a fact that has to be disturbing to the GOP. In three public polls Wilson has been behind Heinrich in every one, even if only by a point. But ahead is ahead.

(By the way, this poll was done among "likely" voters not "registered" voters. The R's attacked an earlier poll that was done among only registered voters, saying Heather would do better with likely voters. It didn't turn out that way in Rasmussen. You can't say the poll has it wrong for Heather and Heinrich but is right when it says Susana's popularity is soaring.)

Again, this is why this race is "lean Dem" in the early going. Wilson's negatives are keeping her from surging. Rasmussen says 46% of those polled view her unfavorably, dangerously close to half the electorate. On the other hand, Heinrich is known perhaps by half the number of voters Wilson is, so he can't assume anything going forward.

If we are in for a close Senate race between those two (lets not count out Dem Hector Balderas yet) you can understand why Heinrich wants Obama to make a number of visits here. How the president finishes in New Mexico could very well determine if the Dems keep the seat in their column.

THE BOTTOM LINES

He earned fame (or infamy) in the state's political community as Big Bill's communications director, but former ABQ Tribune reporter Gilbert Gallegos fell on hard times when the Guv left office. The morning fish wrapper even front-paged the former $100,000 plus a year state employee's struggle to get unemployment insurance. But now he's back to work--at least for a while. Gallegos has signed up for communications chores with ABQ Dem congressional candidate Michelle Lujan Grisham. With Gallegos now in the house and candidates Eric Griego and Marty Chavez already armed to the teeth, look for that three way primary to start taking off in directions unknown---and soon....

We'll come back at you with some wrap up of the Legislative session as soon as the dust clears and also have reports in the coming days on our DC trip and what we learned for you.

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Clock Ticking Down On Santa Fe Session; "All Or Nothing" Politics Still Issue With Licenses, Plus: More Last Minute Roundhouse Action

2012-02-15T00:59:00.046-07:00

The clock is ticking louder in Santa Fe as the 2012 session enters its penultimate day. Here's what's catching our eye in these final hours....

You mean this is the measure cracking down on driver's licenses for undocumented immigrants that the Guv and the conservative press say is a waste of time? From Senate Dem leader Tim Jennings:

The stricter residency requirements would require foreign nationals to present an individual tax identification number, proof of identity in the form of a passport or a consular ID, two proofs of residency in New Mexico for at least six months, fingerprint cards, and notarization on all documents. The bill would also require foreign nationals to renew their licenses every year--not every four or eight like the current law. There are also additional 3rd and 4th degree felonies created for falsifying or accepting fake documents. These additions to the law will allow for the removal of fraudulently obtained licenses and help deter fraud in the future.

The bill passed the Senate but the Guv, the conservative press and fearful Dems in the State House, joining with the R's, are demanding a complete repeal of the driver's license law. They are not going to get it--for the third time--yet they are leaving on the table this bill that would make these licenses much tougher to get. When you have government divided between the two parties you (and the citizenry) get nothing when politics becomes "all or nothing." And that's the disease afflicting both Santa Fe and Washington. DC where we are spending our time this week.

And leave it to the venerable Senator Jennings--the president pro tem and in the power game since '79--to tell it like it is as the panic button is pushed in Santa Fe. He comes with this as a noon Thursday deadline for adjournment of this 30 day session looms:

This is a budget session. That's all that's supposed to happen here and when you open it up really broad, and add a huge number of subject matter into the process, then that tends to ball things up.

In other words, you need to cut your deals on legislation apart from the state budget before the session starts. Why does the Fourth Floor have such a difficult time getting that? Or is the point not to get anything, but only to kick up dust?

And the job Jennings pointed out is paramount--getting a state budget--is complete. The $5.6 billion document is on the way to the Guv. It is basically a status quo budget, allowing for a $200 million or so increase in state spending.

ALLIGATOR ANSWERED

From Fred Nathan of Think New Mexico:

Joe, I wanted to respond to the political Alligator who suggested that somehow the constitutional amendment to increase qualifications for Public Regulation Commissioners is being opposed as a "farewell gift" to NM House Speaker Ben Lujan. I am familiar with this bill and can tell you first-hand that the Speaker could not be more supportive. First, he assigned all three constitutional PRC constitutional amendments to the appropriate committees where he insured that they received a prompt and full hearing and in each case they were voted out unanimously. Then he voted on the floor for all three PRC constitutional amendments. In addition, several members of the Speaker's staff have been extremely helpful working with Think New Mexico from the start. If this is "opposition," we could use more of it.

GRADING HANNA

Reader Joe Barela in Rio Rancho writes:

I think that the readers of your blog might find this survey of New Mexico school superintendents interesting and insightful. They grade the performance of Sec. of Education-designate Hanna Skandera. I hope that you can make it available to them through this link.

Suffice it to say that the controversial Hanna did not get many passing grades from the supers.

Susana says Hanna is here to stay, even if she is her only cabinet secretary not to be confirmed by the state Senate. Skandera has done nothing if not been a lightning rod for the Guv, drawing scorn that may have been directed at the Guv. That's worth some Guv love.

NO CHAMBER LETTER

What happened to the daily dispatch from the ABQ Chamber of Commerce during this 30 day session? Insiders liked the updates with a pro-biz slant, but they've disappeared. The Chamber had rocky relations in the early going of Governor Martinez's term, with our sources reporting there was pressure placed on longtime Chamber director Terri Cole to get right with the Guv. So what about the newsletter? A business Alligator tells us:

It is my understanding that prior to this year's legislative session the ABQ Chamber vetted their issues positions through the Governor's office in order to be in lock step with Susana. As for the newsletter, they are sending out updates, but only to a select group of people.

Our sources earlier informed that the Chamber board felt heat when Cole parted company with the Guv's team on raising the state unemployment tax. She was for it and the Guv was against. Now the Chamber and Guv are always on the same page so who needs a newsletter that might send the ship into stormy weather again? But might not the membership of the state's largest biz group appreciate the Chamber's traditionally candid updates on Santa Fe happenings? They might.

SUPER FOR TV

No one can be more worried that President Obama will coast to victory in New Mexico than the managers of the major TV stations here. Not that they're against him. It's just that a boring contest could mean the loss of millions of dollars in advertising revenue:

Well-financed super-PACs are expected to spend heavily in battleground states this year, and while viewers may get tired of the onslaught of negative ads, the spending could be a boon for local television stations. Total spending on federal elections topped $5 billion in 2008, according to data compiled by the Center for Responsive Politics.

Well, even if the Prez race here doesn't pan out and Obama doesn't have a tough time here, there is still the US Senate race which should attract plenty of PAC money. One other factor--a lot of PAC's like to throw money at the TV stations here in an election year because the cost is much lower to reach an entire state than other regions. To that ABQ TV bosses say, "throw away."

HEAD HONCHO

State Dems say the party's national chair--Florida Rep. Debbie Wasserman Schultz--will soon be here:

Democratic National Chair Wasserman Schultz will be in New Mexico Tuesday, Feb. 21 at Jazzbah ABQ from 4-5 pm. For more information please call Matt at (505) 830-3650

ON THE SCENE

We ran into Bernalillo County Democratic Party Chair Ana Canales on the campaign trail recently. She's busy preparing for the February 25 convention of county Dems that will select delegates to the big statewide pre-primary convention to be held in mid-March. Ana is pictured with Marilyn Hill owner of Hill2 Consulting. Said Canales:

We used to ride the train to work in Santa Fe together until Susana booted us out.

Well, no one is going to accuse the chairwoman of being shy.

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Flat Fed Budget Will Keep Lid On State Growth, Plus: NM And Romney, Udall And Defense, And Glowing Over Susana

2012-02-14T00:58:00.032-07:00

We're headed out to Washington today and we don't think we'll find a New Mexico congressional delegation jumping for joy over President Obama's budget, but they should not be too depressed either--at least for the immediate future.

While Los Alamos Labs will take a funding hit over a research lab that has been widely criticized as a bottomless money pit, Senator Jeff Bingaman reports that total state funding for the Department of Energy which oversees Los Alamos and Sandia Labs should hold steady:

While the overall federal budget is slated for significant deficit reductions in the president’s new budget request for fiscal year 2013, the DOE portion of the budget would grow by 3.4 percent over FY 2012. U.S. Senator Jeff Bingaman said DOE investments in New Mexico would remain at their approximate current levels of $4.4 billion.

Again, a flat budget from the feds means a giant portion of our economy is not going to experiencing any growth in 2013. And that is now becoming a trend. The overall DOE budget is going up, but we don't get a cut? Not good......

SANDIA SPENDING DIPS

The Federal government is the major economic engine in the city and that's why this news from Sandia National Labs is worrisome:

Sandia spent $920.7 million on contract related payments for goods and services, contract employees and travel and purchase order related expenses. The laboratories did nearly $1 billion worth of business in the previous fiscal year, 2010, with $499.3 million paid to New Mexico firms, about $329.7 million of which was paid to small businesses.

That's about an 8% decline in contract spending or about $80 million. Another reason the metro economy continues to stagnate and why the pressure is on our congressional delegation to stop the bleeding. While the labs are not cutting staff, they are cutting contracts and we're feeling it in the city's private sector that depends on lab spending.

If the far right of her party were not so monomaniacal about government spending of any kind, we might say this is an issue for Republican Senate contender Heather Wilson to tackle. She argues she would be a strong Senator for the defense and national security establishment here.

STILL LOW

And the state budget that is headed to the Guv for the budget year that starts July 1 totals $5.6 billion, but that is far below the well over $6 billion budget we had a couple of years ago in the glory days of the bull market.

Flat federal and state government spending mean no big boost in government employment and therefore a continued sluggish commercial and residential real estate market in the months ahead. Retail sales will also be held in check, meaning revenues into the state and city of ABQ are going to be modest.

MEDICAID MONEY

On our pointing out that the state Medicaid budget under Governor Martinez continues to grow, Nick Estes, deputy policy director for NM Voices for Children, chimes in:

We agree that the Legislature and Governor for two years have dealt pretty fairly with the Medicaid budget, but we have told the administration and the Legislature that it's time to start enrolling kids again--the enrollment has been flat for about a year and a half. We are hoping the Senate will increase the Medicaid budget somewhat over the House version.

The House approved budgets calls for spending $905 million for Medicaid, an increase of $38 million or 4.4 percent for the budget year that starts July 1. Much of that money is matched three to one by the feds. That gives the state $3 billion in Medicaid funding. In a population of 2 million, nearly 600,000 children and low-income residents receive Medicaid.

SANTA FE STALL

With the state Public Regulation Commission (PRC), a constant tragic-comedy in which the commissioners compete to outdo themselves in bizarre behavior, why are the PRC reform bills stalled in Santa Fe? From a Senior Alligator making the rounds at the Roundhouse:

House Speaker Ben Lujan went far in life without benefit of a formal education. His opposition to qualifications for public office is to give the same opportunity to others. Therefore, I believe, Senate opposition to qualifications for PRC commissioners is a farewell gift to the Speaker. There will be another day to take up qualifications, but not to express farewell to the Speaker. íAdios Amigo!

Hmm. Commissioners who are qualified? What would we do for free entertainment?

UDALL & DEFENSE

We noted a recent legislative achievement of Dem Senator Tom Udall and it didn't take long for some readers to throw counter punches. One of them is John Rogers of Tijeras:

Joe, You forgot to include one other truly stunning achievement of Senator Udall: He voted for the National Defense Authorization Act. The Act allows US citizens to be arrested and detained indefinitely. Even the ACLU "believes that any military detention of American citizens or others within the United States is unconstitutional and illegal". Allegedly (I just love that word) Senator Udall took an oath to defend and protect the US Constitution. So just which part of the Constitution is the Senator defending and protecting?

Udall's office came with this response:

Sen. Udall is concerned that the detainee provisions in the bill do not explicitly state that the Constitution’s due process rights protect U.S. Citizens from being detained indefinitely without trial. While the Supreme Court has upheld these protections, Senator Udall believes it is better to unambiguously write them into the law. During debate on the bill, he voted to approve four separate amendments to beef up those provisions and while one was ultimately adopted, he is still working make the law crystal clear...Udall helped introduce bipartisan legislation to clarify that lawful U.S. citizens cannot be detained without being charged or granted a trial under any circumstance.

NM AND ROMNEY

Probable GOP presidential nominee Mitt Romney has some New Mexico assistance on board. Santa Fe Dr. J.R. Damron is the state chair for Romney.

He's perhaps best remembered for a short-lived and ill-fated run for the 2006 GOP Guv nomination. He withdrew from the race shortly after winning the June primary and was replaced by John Dendahl, the fiery former GOP chairman. Damron was labeled as too weak to take on Dem Governor Bill Richardson, but Dendahl went on to suffer the worst defeat in state gubernatorial history so it looks as if history vindicated the good doctor at least some.

Damron also made an unsuccessful bid for the 2010 GOP lieutenant governor nod.

He seems a good fit for Romney who is favored by the party establishment. Damron also appealed more to the business and country club elements of the GOP rather than its more activist and very conservative wing.

COURT BREAKDOWN

There are four Dems and one independent on the New Mexico Supreme Court--not five Dems. Say what? Well, lifelong Dem and Chief Justice Charles Daniels changed his registration to independent, probably to deflect some of the partisan hits he's been taking since becoming a justice. In a first draft Monday we said the court was all Dem.

SUSANA AND ROMNEY

As for Governor Martinez being picked by Romney as his Veep running mate, readers continue to weigh in even if it is the longest of long shots. Ernie Bean writes:

Hey Joe, For Martinez to be selected by Romney she would have to be cleared of any fault in the $22 million awarded Stephan Slevin. Slevin was held for 22 months in the Dona Ana County jail on a DWI while driving a stolen car charge. Martinez was the district attorney at the time and seems to have forgotten about the guy who suffered from mental and medical problems while being held. Others have made the same claim of being held for long periods of time. Assistant DA A. Amy Orlando said Slevin's time in jail was not out of the normal..

Yes, the vetting process for vice-president will be more intense than it was down here for governor. Remember back during the campaign how we were the sole news source in the state to wonder about the immigration status of Martinez's family? We were attacked for it by the Guv's political operatives, only to see the story later burst into the national headlines when Martinez became Guv.

AGLOW OVER SUSANA

In case you think the politicos beating up on us on occasion influences our coverage, it doesn't. For a certain number of years we've been presenting the good with the bad. For example, here's a review of Susana from the conservative National Review that is so glowing, it might cause her most ardent fan to blush.

She is principled and pragmatic. She has a sure sense of philosophy but is also keen on the details. She expresses some quite hard-line views in a lovely feminine voice. She knows how to talk to people who think they’re allergic to Republicans. She’s a lawyer who is exceptionally business-friendly. She both advocates and exemplifies the American Dream. Yes, you can forgive people their excitement over Susana Martinez.

We hope Susana told this guy she's married. I mean with that kind of head-over-heels love, First Gent Chuck Franco might get jealous.

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Space Race: Santa Fe Backs Off As Others Charge Ahead, Plus: Guv Says Supremes Opinion "Laughable," And: Bill Clinton Goes For Marty In House Contest

2012-02-13T00:58:00.040-07:00

New Mexico's insularity and provincialism is often charming and comforting and even a great tourist attraction, but it can be deadly for advanced economic development. No where is that more evident than in Santa Fe where lawmakers have plunged a knife in the NM Spaceport by refusing to give spaceport suppliers and manufacturers immunity from most lawsuits by space travelers. Do they think we are the only ones in the space game? We're not. Texas, Virginia and Florida have already approved immunity.

The chances of getting an immunity bill reconsidered in the final week of this 30 day session are as remote as Mars, but if the miraculous occurs, there is a path to compromise (Yes, the dreaded "c" word):

Under a bill approved unanimously by the Colorado Legislature’s Senate Judiciary Committee, spaceflight companies could be sued only for the death or injury of passengers in cases of gross negligence or ignoring dangerous conditions. Passengers would have to sign an agreement acknowledging the company’s limited liability. The Colorado Trial Lawyers Association opposes general immunity from lawsuits, but agreed to remain neutral on the bill in exchange for an amendment clarifying that the prohibition applied only to spaceflight passengers.

If the Colorado trial lawyers can sign on to an immunity bill, whey can't their New Mexico brethren? Well, that takes us back to that "charming" insularity and provincialism. If not, perhaps newly appointed ABQ Dem state senator Lisa Curtis, who is also president of the NM Trial Lawyers Association and who personally wielded the Spaceport knife, can enlighten us?

It also didn't help that Governor Martinez dragged her feet on the Spaceport before finally embracing the project. She is pushing for reconsideration of the immunity bill as the stakes get higher for her. If the southern NM Spaceport founders, she will shoulder the blame. She may not have started it but she owns it.

Others say not to worry. That the bill can get done in 2013. Now there's something New Mexico understands how to get done--waiting.

MORE PRODDING

The editorial pages of both the ABQ Journal and Santa Fe New Mexican don't often agree, but on the Spaceport they have found common ground. Both see it as a gateway to this state's economic future. Bully for them. From the New Mexican:

Generally, we abhor that states must continue to out-do each other...to attract corporate business...However, New Mexico has invested millions in the spaceport and stands to make millions more in tax revenues over the years. We are competitive -- for now -- in the race for space tourism and private commercial spaceflights. This (immunity) bill would keep New Mexico on an equal footing and protect our considerable investment, while at the same time still holding businesses accountable for gross negligence.

The New Mexico Trial Lawyers Association, Senator Curtis and Senate Majority Leader Michael Sanchez and House Majority Leader Kenny Martinez--also trial lawyers--need to take a good look in the mirror. Is a failed Spaceport and the cashiering of an enormous economic opportunity what they want as their legacy?

Sirs and Madam, please think globally--not provincially.

NOT DONE YET
Sen. Curtis
Sorry, Senator Curtis, we're not done yet. We know you are battle-scarred from your years as a trial attorney, but that's child's play when it comes to the game of La Politica. Welcome to our world.

From the Las Cruces Sun-News and veteran Walt Rubel:

Of all the reasons given by all the New Mexico legislators for all of their votes this session, none are as absurd as the one offered by Sen. Lisa Curtis, who claimed that her vote against a bill to offer limited liability protection for spaceport manufacturers and suppliers was actually a good thing for our spaceport. Spaceport America will now be more attractive to people who want to take the risk of space travel, but would have shied away if suppliers and manufacturers had been granted limited liability from lawsuits, Curtis argued.

I can just see the promotional material now: "Come to Spaceport America! Your loved ones can sue for a bundle if you get killed in a horrible accident." It's a marketer's dream....Maybe Curtis actually thinks that way. Perhaps each summer as she is planning the family vacation the primary factor in her decision is the tort laws in each state she is considering visiting.

Don't take it personally, Lisa. It's just business--the business of this state and how it's going to provide economic opportunity for a generation pressing its noses against the window.

Curtis faces long odds in keeping the ABQ NE Heights seat she was appointed to. It's heavy Republican. She may only have months left to serve. How about cutting a deal along the lines of what they did up in Colorado, Senator? If you don't and the Spaceport loses its viability because of it, no number of victories in your private life would ever overcome the public stigma.

DESIGNATE NO MORE
Barela
Speaking of economic development or the lack thereof:

They made him wait over a year but Jon Barela has finally been confirmed by the state Senate as Secretary for Economic Development. What's kind of funny is that the news release announcing the news forgot to put the word "director" or "Secretary" in the lead. Never mind. We'll add it for them. From the spin machine:

The Senate confirmed Jon Barela as Economic Development Secretary unanimously on a vote of 38-0. Secretary Barela was sponsored for confirmation by Sen. Mary Jane Garcia (D) of Dona Ana and Sen. Bill Payne (R) of Albuquerque.

But don't get too excited, Jon. You weren't confirmed while you were thinking about running again for the GOP nomination for the ABQ US House seat. But now that you are not trying to stomp on the Dems, what the heck, call him Mr. Secretary. (And now that you have the title, Jon, can you turn the afterburners on for the Spaceport?).

DO NOTHING SESSION

As for legislative progress in this 30 day session, as the Alligators and wall-leaners predicted, this is going to be another mostly do-nothing gathering caught in the gridlock that snared Susana's first session:

Gov. Martinez faces the prospect of losing almost all of her high-profile initiatives. Martinez, a Republican facing a Democrat-controlled Legislature, already has been defeated on public safety, government consolidation, anti-abortion and crime bills that she endorsed. Still ahead is a legislative showdown on the state law that enables illegal immigrants to receive driver’s licenses. Martinez wants the law repealed, and she has invested much of her energy and political capital in that initiative.

We will get a state budget which is the main purpose of the short session. It is the "all or nothing" philosophy of the far-right that is costing Martinez as well as an increasingly resentful Democratic legislative leadership. Normally you would get both sides in the room and bang some heads together, but in the new Santa Fe they bang each others heads against the Roundhouse walls.

There are still a few days. If we could get a deal on the Spaceport, a decent sized capital outlay bill and that Constitutional Amendment for childhood development that would be sent to the voters, the session, in our eyes, would be vindicated.

THE LAST LAUGH?

We don't know if she lost her cool or whether she has genuine contempt for them, but Governor Martinez, a former district attorney, called her latest setback before the NM Supreme Court "laughable."

You may not have caught that because she said it in an interview with KOAT-TV news while a less emotional statement from the Guv's official spinners made the rounds in the rest of the media.

"It's really laughable to read the opinion from the Supreme Court. It's a very partisan decision." Martinez said.

We can't find the video with the Guv's statement on the station's web site, but it aired at 6 p.m. Friday and the reporter who interviewed the Guv posted the extraordinary quote on her Twitter account.

It came in reaction to the Court's reversal of the redistricting decision for the state House handed down by a retired Dem judge they appointed. The reversal is a major score for House Dems and if it stands will make even longer the odds of the R's taking over the House.

But "laughable?" Is that how you appraise a co-equal branch of government? Well, the frustration may be boiling over for this Governor as she has been repeatedly rebuffed by the high court which has four Dem members and no R's. Chief Justice Daniels is a former Dem turned independent.

The last Republican Governor before Susana also showed contempt for the justices of his time. In the 90's Gary Johnson was so upset with the court ruling against his attempts to stretch the state Constitution that he declared that the court made its decisions through "chicken-bone voo-doo."

By calling the court opinion "laughable" Martinez holds it out for mockery--as strange as that may be for someone who is an attorney and who made her living as a longtime district attorney. This was a 33 page well-reasoned opinion. You may disagree with it, but it is anything but "laughable."

In fact, the last laugh will probably be on the Governor, despite her threats that the Federal courts will eventually give her what she wants in the way of redistricting. Republicans plan on filing suit with the Federal courts today. (By the way, how many millions in legal fees is all this costing taxpayers?)

Running the government is hard work. Political savvy, positioning, timing, compromise and subtlety are your tools. Used effectively, you get legislation and hopefully progress. Political platitudes and playground insults belong on the campaign trail where the consultants continue to carve an ever more moronic trail. If you use them to run a government, you're not going to be taken very seriously. Some people may even laugh.

BILL FOR MARTY

The ABQ congressional race gets shaken up today, with the news of a big foot endorsement. Former President Bill Clinton will urge Dem voters to pick former Mayor Marty Chavez in what appears to be a three way battle for the nomination. From the Chavez camp comes the Clinton money quote:

I'm proud to endorse my friend Marty Chavez...Marty is a strong, visionary leader who created jobs and delivered the results New Mexican families needed as Mayor...In Congress, I know that Marty will take on our big challenges, stand up to special interests, and fight to create clean energy jobs in New Mexico because he's proven time and again that he can get the job done.

Chavez formed a friendship with Clinton in the early 90's when Bill was Prez and Marty was Mayor. The two played a celebrated round of golf together as Chavez was touted as one of the nation's new generation of leaders. He said of the endorsement:

There are few words that can be used to describe how unbelievably humbled and honored I am to receive the support of not only a great President, but someone who has so significantly changed the world we live in for the better. I am incredibly energized by the President's endorsement and the momentum it provides my campaign...

Chavez will use the presidential backing to raise funds and to try to separate himself from rivals Eric Griego and Michelle Lujan Grisham.

And we have more ABQ US House news:

WOMEN POWER

This development could mean a higher cash count in the weeks ahead for ABQ Dem congressional hopeful Michelle Lujan Grisham:

EMILY’s List, the nation’s largest resource for women in politics, announced that it is moving Michelle Lujan Grisham from “On the List” to a full recommendation. “On the List” was created because of the dramatic growth in the EMILY’s List community who are getting their information earlier and on the web. “On the List” is a new way to connect candidates with supporters who are ready to take action now. Michelle Lujan Grisham is moving from “On the List” to a full recommendation.

Lujan Grisham has a lead in the money race with rivals Eric Griego and Marty Chavez. This endorsement from one of the largest PAC's out there should result in more national money.

The Bernalillo County Commissioner also recently picked up the endorsement of former Lt. Governor Diane Denish.

Overall, the race for the Dem nod appears to be a jump ball, with more clarity coming at the mid-March pre-primary convention when delegates vote for their favorite contenders. Organizationally, Griego and Chavez have the advantage because of their experience and Lujan Grisham's late start. Also, she dropped the ball in 2008 when she sought the Dem nod against Martin Heinrich. She had the money, but not the troops on the ground. Will it be different this time?

The lay of the land looks better for her. In a four way race in 2008, another Hispanic woman--Rebecca Vigil-Giron--was in the contest, taking 25% of the vote to Michelle's 23%. This time it's a three way race and the two Hispanic men could split up the pie, leaving her to mop up in the middle (Heinrich won the '08 nomination, scoring 43% of the vote).

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It's Hers: GOP Senate Nomination Battle Essentially Over As Sanchez Bows Out; What's Ahead For Heather? Plus: The Viral Video That Has ABQ Talking

2012-02-10T00:58:00.002-07:00

It's hers this time. After a long, long wait the Republican nomination for the United States Senate is about to go to former ABQ Congresswoman Heather Wilson. The official withdrawal from the race of Lt. Governor John Sanchez virtually guarantees Heather the prize.

You can take it to the bank.

Greg Sowards, the wealthy Las Cruces day care center owner, is all that remains between Heather and the nomination. And while he has $600,000 banked to put up a fight (Wilson had $1.1 million at year's end), the Republican grassroots will now follow the party's elite and fall like dominoes into Heather's circle, even as Sowards tries to wear the mantle of the "true conservative." But this is not 2008 when heavyweight conservative Steve Pearce denied Wilson another Senate nomination. This time she's the heavy--even if a "moderate" one.

The Sanchez towel throw was not unexpected as we and others reported anonymous speculation last week that the end was near. We then broke the official news to the state on our Twitter account Thursday morning. It means Wilson will be able to concentrate more fully on the November battle which is likely to feature as her foe Dem US Rep. Martin Heinrich.

She needs that extra time to shore up conservative support in her own party without Sanchez putting a thorn in her side and also to begin a long romance of independent voters who are essential if she is to triumph over the Dem nominee. With less pressure coming from her right, Wilson should be able to appear more above the fray. Most important, she should not be subjected to an immense barrage of negative TV ads that have taken such a toll on her overall political image. (Sowards may come with some, but they'll be more like a BB gun than a bazooka).

Heather is now yucking it up on her web site with a hamburger contest and the like and touring the state talking about her personal life story--not much about politics. It's all part of her plan to humanize herself. Her negatives are very high after numerous tough congressional campaigns. Overcoming the personal distaste that many voters have formed for her will not be easy and many will never be moved. But try she must and the early going is the time for it.

Sanchez also affirmed our earlier blogging that he will not seek elective office this year, meaning he will not switch over to the ABQ GOP US House race. His future is now the waiting game. Governor Martinez issued a curt statement about his withdrawal, revealing that the relationship between the two is still icy.

Sanchez could eventually endorse Wilson, but he didn't do it on his way out the Senate door. He still has a poker hand. He is a prominent Hispanic Republican elected official who has been treated with about as much respect as a panhandler by Martinez, Wilson and company.

While Sanchez's withdrawal is a definite plus for Wilson as she will now have to spend less money on the primary and have more time to repair those aforementioned negatives, there are storm clouds gathering for her. The fervor for the GOP we saw in 2010 has waned as the ball is handed off to a broader electorate that will vote this year, her longtime mentor Senator Pete Domenici is gone from the scene and President Obama appears to be positioned for another victory in heavy Hispanic New Mexico. But those clouds are off on the horizon. Today the sun shines on Heather Wilson--if only briefly.

SANDRA IN SANTA FE

We caught up with Dem State Rep. Sandra Jeff and husband Joe at the Legislature's annual "Indian Day." Sandra gained notoriety when she broke with the Dem leadership last year on repealing driver's licenses for undocumented immigrants. She again supported the repeal when the House approved the measure this week.

There was talk that Jeff might leave the House to challenge fellow Native American and Dem State Sen. Lynda Lovejoy. The two have been known to be political sparring partners. But Jeff, a Navajo who represents parts of McKinley and San Juan counties, says she is staying put and will seek re-election to a third term in the House. Her unpredictable streak keeps the capitol guessers busy.

By the way, the secretary of state's office says of the 112 state legislators, five are Native American.

TRANSPARENCY DEFICIT?

Does Susana have a transparency deficit? This AP dispatch indicates she does:

Gov. Martinez bills herself as the transparency governor, promoting her mandate that all state employee salaries be posted publicly, touting her support for a bill that would require agencies and elected bodies to post notices of their meetings 72 hours in advance and promising quick responses to requests for public records. But when it comes to her schedule, Martinez keeps her information close to the vest. Other than public appearances, Martinez's office has declined to publicly release information about her travel or how she spends her days on the taxpayers' payroll. And notification of her public appearances often comes with just a few hours notice. The governor's office says it has a solid record of transparency, citing what it calls a speedy and thorough response to open records requests and its posting of public appearances on her web site.

And then there's the struggles of the alternative newspaper the Santa Fe Reporter to find out whose been visiting the Fourth Floor. Not pretty.

Sounds kind of like Big Bill, doesn't it? And it was all going to be so different. Not.

GOING VIRAL

How goes the conversation in ABQ? A YouTube video spoofing the slang of the city has gone viral with nearly 200,000 views. You can chuckle along here. Watch for the line about former Mayor Marty Chavez.

Thanks for stopping by this week and for again voting us "The Best" in the city.

Reporting to you from Albuquerque, I'm Joe Monahan

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Around La Politica We Go: Sanchez Offically Ends GOP Senate Bid, Plus: A Senate Candidate's Husband, Spaceport Immunity And Udall's Points

2012-02-09T00:54:00.027-07:00

Around La Politica we go this Thursday...Lt. Governor John Sanchez made official today his withdrawal from the race for the GOP US Senate nomination. Notably, he did not endorse Heather Wilson, his chief rival for the nomination. The withdrawal statement:

Eight months ago, our campaign for the U.S. Senate began with one clear objective: to give New Mexicans the opportunity to send conservative leadership to Washington D.C. The timing on this race was not ideal nor did we choose it. But the need for a conservative leader from New Mexico is real.

Throughout the course of this campaign, it has become clear to me, that in order to ensure that a Republican is elected to represent New Mexico in the U.S. Senate, the G.O.P must stand united. A bitter and divisive Republican Primary would only diminish our party’s genuine opportunity to bring real change in Washington. The reality is that the path forward to success in the campaign could cause a negative primary struggle that would leave the eventual nominee bruised, bloody and broke.

After much prayer, counsel with my family, and discussions with supporters, I have decided to end my campaign for the U.S. Senate, and continue to serve New Mexico as your Lt. Governor.

I want to express my sincere thanks to those New Mexicans who joined our campaign. I am forever grateful for the support we received from grassroots leaders, tea party patriots, business owners, GOP activists and everyday citizens. They offered their efforts and their dollars and it meant the world to me. This was not my time, but I will never forget their friendship.

I am redirecting myself today to helping our party advance the strongest slate of candidates to victory in November, from the Roundhouse to the White House.

I hope that you will join me in working with Governor Martinez, and all conservatives to complete the important work that we have begun in New Mexico.

Las Cruces day care center owner Greg Sowards is still in the race, touting himself as the conservative alternative to Wilson, but Sanchez was Heather's main worry and she is now expected to have a pretty easy path to the nomination.

Sanchez's campaign never took off, moneywise or with conservative momentum even as the grumbling continued that Wilson was "too moderate" for many R's. Sanchez might have been able to count on national conservative groups to jump in the race if he had shown some early muscle, but he didn't and now he has to regroup as Wilson starts a slow waltz to the Senate nomination, a prize that eluded her in 2008 when conservatives unified around Steve Pearce.

REACTION

Wilson came with this statement on the Sanchez withdrawal:

Lt. Gov. John Sanchez is a fine public servant who has always put the needs of New Mexico first. He ran a good campaign that questioned the current direction of our country and emphasized the importance of this election. I consider John a friend, and I know he will continue to serve New Mexicans with honor."

Martinez who has supported Wilson from the get-go and panned tbe Lt. Guv's entrance into the race, came with this cool quip:

The governor supports Lt. Governor Sanchez’s decision to exit the Senate race and focus on serving as Lt. Governor to help turn New Mexico around.

AT THE ROUNDHOUSE

Have the funeral already. The House again passes the bill to repeal driver's licenses for undocumented immigrants. They did so on an overwhelming 45-25 vote as the Dem leadership basically gave up the fight and will let the undertakers of the state Senate embalm and bury this measure once again. A lot of Dem House members, worried about the political beating they would take from the R's this fall if they rejected the repeal, won political cover for their 'Yes" votes....

A Republican Alligator writes of Governor Martinez continuing to be prominently mentioned as a possible VP running mate for Mitt Romney:

Romney's political director is Rich Beeson. He used to be the regional director for the Republican National Committee which included New Mexico and is a close personal friend to the guy he moved into that same position when he left it. That would be Jay McCleskey, Martinez's political advisor.

Well, sounds plausible and those are interesting connections, Gator, but foremost is Martinez's status as the first female Hispanic Governor in national history. Without that, she doesn't get near the door of the GOP Prez nominee....

Embattled Las Cruces District Court Judge Michael Murphy resigns in a deal cut with the state Judicial Standards Commission. That kind of takes the wind out of the sails of special prosecutor Matt Chandler, doesn't it? You could argue that Chandler's bribery indictment of Murphy chased him out but Murphy resigned because of inappropriate comments he made, not because of the bribery charges which he still faces trial on.

A number of legal beagles have dismissed the bribery case as politically inspired. Whatever it is, with Murphy off the bench for good, the bribery case is not going to draw anywhere near the attention it would have. It will be interesting to see how much vigor is now applied to the case by Matt, the GOP 2010 Republican attorney general hopeful and who could make another run for it in 2014....

Reader Michelle Meaders questions our use of the word "centrist" when describing the Guv's approach to Medicaid, the massive program that provides health care to mainly low income New Mexicans:

You haven’t noticed the uproar about her multi-million dollar Medicaid contract to an out-of state consultant, completely bypassing the Legislature?

Yes, we've heard about the contract, Michelle, but we were talking about the overall funding for Medicaid. In this year's budget--and last year's--Martinez did not take a meat cleaver to Medicaid. Neither did the Legislature. Maybe that contract the administration is proposing takes us in the opposite direction, but we're not there yet.

State House Minority Leader Tom Taylor pours it on heavy on the House's passage of the state budget. Here you go:

“This budget was the result of a collaborative, tri-partisan effort,” said Minority Leader Tom Taylor (R-1). “It is a testament to the great work of the House Appropriations committee that we were able to unanimously pass a budget out of the House this session.”

And did he mention all 70 House members--Dems and R's--are up for re-election? Well, of course everything is great. But will someone administer ten lashes with a wet noodle to the person who came up with the word "tripartisan?"

THE HUSBAND FACTOR
Castellano & Jim Williamson
Jim Williamson, the husband of northern Dem State Senate candidate Nicole Castellano, is now a Democrat, not a registered Republican as we initially blogged Monday. The error was pointed out by Nicole. However, he was indeed a Republican not long ago. Now, Jim is not running, but he is a public figure (see below) and there has been considerable speculation from supporters of State Sen. Phil Griego who Castellano hopes to unseat in the June primary, that she would be too friendly to the agenda of Republican Governor Susana Martinez. With that as context, a Republican Alligator comes with this backgrounder:

Jim Williamson, husband of Senate candidate Nicole Castellano, was a registered Republican while working at the Public Regulation Commission for Commissioner David King. He changed his voter registration to Democrat on February 20, 2010 right before being named by the Democratic controlled PRC Commission to Director of Consumer Relations.

Jim is a member of Republican Party of Santa Fe Facebook group. He lists that he is conservative on his Facebook page. His Facebook groups include “Fire Nancy Pelosi,” “Mike Huckabee,” “The Tea Party,” “Blue Republican,” “The Albuquerque Tea Party” and a slew of Republican Party candidates from the presidential and state government levels. It shows that he supported several Republicans in 2010 including Governor Susana Martinez, former NM GOP Chairman Allen Weh, and Matt Rush for Land Commissioner.

Now you know why there is plenty of room for conspiracy theories when it comes to the Griego-Castellano contest.

Postscript: Nicole Castellano emails:

The King family from Bruce and others (Dems & Repubs) have always been friends to the Castellano family and Jim was fortunate and experienced enough to help David out for a short time. However, Jim's voter registration is in fact Democrat. You can verify with the County Clerk of Santa Fe which has him registered. Thank goodness, since he will actually be able to vote for his wife in this race.

And our Gators did indeed verify Jim's registration--as both a Republican and Democrat. The registration is here.

SENATE BIAS?

A former high ranking member of the leadership of the NM House sends this:

It frustrates me to see in HB2 (the appropriations bill) that the Senate, with 42 members, receives $1.427 million for employee hires while the House gets $1.532 million for their 70 members. Other than confirmation hearings, I don’t see anything more they do than in the House and the disparity in employees seems outrageous. It never used to be that way.

SPACE LAW

Now some equal time for those who do not agree with us that state Senate Dems dropped the ball when they killed the Spaceport immunity bill. ABQ attorney David Duhigg comes with this:

Joe, Like you, I think the Spaceport is important and will be a valuable source of good-paying jobs. New Mexico is on the cusp of having the first operational commercial space flight entity in the world. NASA will no longer operate space flights, and Spaceport America is in the unique position to take over all of NASA’s space flights, except for military and intelligence.

This means that Spaceport America will not only provide space tourism, but will also be launching individuals into space for commercial enterprises and scientific endeavors. The “space flight participants” that the immunity bill referred to are not just rich people looking for an adventure. They are scientists, researchers, and businesses.

If I am a business looking for a commercial space flight provider because I want to, say, put communications satellites in orbit, I want to know that I am getting the safest provider possible, and that it is insured so that my investment is protected.

I want to know that I have some sort of recourse if the things go wrong because of someone’s negligence. If the provider has the extraordinary immunity this bill sought, I know that my investment and my business will be hung out to dry if something goes wrong, so I am going take my business elsewhere.

And when I and my fellow businessmen, investors and researchers go elsewhere, the Spaceport loses money and jobs...The immunity would have been a job killer. The jobs the Spaceport promises will rely on profits, and we cannot bank on an unending stream of billionaire space tourists who throw caution to the wind to keep the Spaceport profitable and New Mexicans employed. Safety, protection, and recourse attract customers and create jobs, not immunity.

Thanks for that opinion, David, but the next question to tackle is why other states hoping to build a space-based economy--including Texas, Virginia and Florida--have approved laws to protect companies from lawsuits in cases of space travel. Underdeveloped New Mexico is playing with fire by leaving this immunity bill on the table.

UDALL'S POINTS

As he looks toward his 2014 re-election campaign, Dem Senator Tom Udall is going to be looking to put legislative points on the board. Like this:

Legislation championed by Rep. Gabrielle Giffords, and carried in the Senate by Sens. Tom Udall and Dean Heller (R-NV), to crack down on drug smugglers on the Southwest border has cleared the Senate and will now be sent to President Obama to be signed into law. The Ultralight Aircraft Smuggling Prevention Act will improve border security by cracking down on smugglers who use ultralight aircraft to traffic drugs across the U.S.-Mexico border. The measure overwhelmingly passed the House on Wednesday during an emotional farewell tribute to Rep. Giffords, who resigned as a Member of Congress to focus on rehabilitation.

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Campaign '12: Legislative Primaries Start To Take Shape; We've Got The Latest, Plus: Berry Scurrys On Paseo Rebuild, And: A Fish In The Land Office

2012-02-08T00:54:00.018-07:00

Campaign '12 for the New Mexico Legislature is starting to take shape. Here's what we hear...

ABQ Dem State Rep. Bill O'Neill will watch at least two Republican foes compete for his NE Heights seat. O'Neill will be targeted by the June primary winner for his refusal to vote for a total repeal of the law allowing undocumented immigrants to acquire state driver's licenses.

Mark Moores and Nancy Cooper are the two Republican names in the race so far for the ABQ NE Heights Senate seat recently vacated by GOP Senator Kent Cravens. Dem Lisa Curtis holds the seat by gubernatorial appointment, but the R's have a good chance of taking it back in November as the district remains heavy R.

Freshman ABQ GOP westside State Rep. David Doyle will leave the House to seek the GOP nomination for the Senate seat held by Dem John Sapien. There is also talk that Sapien will draw a Dem primary challenger. No firm names yet. Meanwhile, Paul Pacheco who lost to Doyle in the House GOP primary two years ago, will run again and hopes with Doyle gone his chances will improve.

Nicole Castellano, daughter of former Santa Fe District Attorney Joe Castellano, is challenging State Senator Phil Griego for the nomination in the sprawling six county northern seat. She has been in business development for two decades. Her husband is a Republican who works for the Public Regulation Commission. That should get the conspiracy theories going. (Nicole emails in that her husband is now a Democrat).

And freshly appointed state Senator Bill Burt of Alamogordo tells me he will seek election to the SE NM seat. Redistricting has thrown Burt and Senator Rod Adair into the same district. Burt says he has not talked with Adair about his plans. If the two run, it will be a heated GOP primary with the winner nearly assured of victory in November in that heavy R area.

Filing day for the legislative seats is March 20.

DATELINE SANTA FE

We jumped the gun a bit when we said on our first draft of Tuesday's blog that the House had approved the state budget. Actually, House Appropriations gave the go ahead.The full House is expected to follow suit today and send it over to the Senate. Reader Cheryl Haacker has some thoughts on what we wrote about the budget:

Joe, you wrote:

"You might say that's because the Dems have a boatload of budget hawks and Susana has little to disagree with them about. Or you might say she realizes she doesn't have the votes to change much in the budget so she toes the line."

I would add:

Or perhaps the Governor realizes that she has the authority and power to just line out any items she doesn't like, in their entirety - or even by single digits. There's no need to fuss too much under those circumstances, is there? She can have the final edit on anything that reaches her desk!

True enough, Cheryl, but we again emphasize that since taking power Martinez has not picked major budget battles with the Legislature. Her mainly centrist positioning on Medicaid and education funding began in her 2010 Guv campaign and has remained a staple of her political agenda. And being in the center can serve her well around here.

ENVIRO ENOUGH?

We blogged Tuesday that former Mayor Marty Chavez, now a candidate for the Dem nod for the ABQ US House seat, "developed a strong environmental record as Mayor." That had them hitting the "Send" button on the email programs. Paul Stokes is one reader example:

You highlighted the environmental record of Marty Chavez, but highlighted nothing about his opponents--Eric Griego and Michelle Lujan Grisham. As a supporter of Griego, I wish you would have acknowledged his endorsement by the League of Conservation Voters and the Sierra Club...Several other progressive groups have endorsed Griego, including Progressive Democrats of America...

And news from Lujan Grisham:

Our campaign got the news that I am endorsed by the National Women's Political Caucus! I am both excited and honored to have the support of an organization that increases women's participation in all areas of political and public life.

A SCURRYING BERRY

ABQ Mayor RJ Berry is heralding the latest developments for funding a rebuild of the Paseo Del Norte/I-25 interchange as "bipartisanship." He's working not only to get the project underway, but to also avoid a political debacle if the stalled project stays stalled.

The ABQ City Council has now agreed to put $50 million of bonds into the rebuild and Berry is asking the state for $30 million in capital outlay as well as another $8 million in federal grants. Dem Councilor Ken Sanchez, a possible 2013 mayoral opponent of Berry, has joined with the mayor in support of all of this and also calling it bipartisanship.

But Berry stepped in it when he asked voters to approve bonds for Paseo at last October's election. He put on the ballot with Paseo the building of a controversial sportsplex. As a result, Paseo and the sportsplex were both defeated.

Berry is now spreading responsibility for the Paseo problem and he has willing takers on the council who don't want to look like obstructionists. But it is the city's executive, not the council, who will own this issue when it comes election time. It is either going to be built by then or not. If it is, Berry is off the hook. If it isn't, he will be nailed for not delivering and the bipartisanship of today will likely be out the window.

Berry says his chances of getting that $30 million from Santa Fe is very good. If it comes through, his Paseo problem could be academic. Stay tuned.

SPACED OUT

Democrats proudly rolled out a jobs plan this legislative session and routinely fault the Governor for ignoring job creation, so what do they do when it comes to perhaps the largest potential job creator in the decades ahead? They throw up this beaut of a roadblock:

A Senate panel killed a bill to prevent New Mexico space travelers from suing in most cases of negligence. The proposal failed in the Judiciary Committee on a 6-5 vote. Democrats said the bill went too far in eroding the rights of consumers. The measure would have prevented passengers or their families from suing manufacturers of parts and equipment used in space flights.

First, it was foot-dragging from Governor Martinez that Spaceport backers fear. Now that she appears to be finally on board, its the Dems throwing up a potential roadblock,

Sub-orbital space travelers paying $200,000 a pop would seem more than aware of the risks and other states have passed legislation that was rejected by Senate Judiciary.

Trial lawyers are being blamed by Spaceport supporters for the Dem rejection. Their lobbyist denies it.

ABQ Dem State Senator Eric Griego was among those voting to kill the bill, even as he promises job creation as a Dem candidate for Congress. Both of his opponents are attorneys. Do they agree with that vote?

As he rolled out a jobs plan Senate Majority Leader, attorney and Senate Judiciary member Michael Sanchez said this session that Dems get a bad rap from their critics for being "anti-business."

With votes like this one, Michael, you're only giving them more ammo.

LAND ART

It's not all politics in Santa Fe. Each month State Land Commissioner Ray Powell, Jr. opens the doors to his offices to local artists. When we stopped by recently ABQ artist Diana Stetson was displaying a number of her works, including some inspired by the global warming problem.

We took particular delight of this painting showing a fish swimming about--in the State Land Office of all places....

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What's Next for Heinrich & Balderas? Smiles Continue But Tension Lurks, Plus: More On Berry-Schultz Lawsuit Imbroglio, And: An "Agonizing" Session

2012-02-07T00:54:00.016-07:00

Martin & Hector play nice
Now that the R's seems to have settled their Senate nomination with John Sanchez apparently dead in the water, ready to exit and pave the way for Heather Wilson, attention shifts to the Dems and their potentially spirited Senate battle between Martin Heinrich and Hector Balderas. But will it?

The two Dem Senate contenders seem happy enough together in this photo snapped over the weekend at the IBEW Union Hall in Carlsbad. What Dems want is that same pic following the June primary.

Like Lt. Governor Sanchez, who reports raising only about $100,000 in the final quarter of 2011, Balderas is cash-strapped compared to Rep. Heinrich who had $1.4 million in the bank at year's end. Hector had less than $450,000.

Dems are dreading possible nuclear warfare between the two popular politicos. Could an exit deal be brewing for State Auditor Balderas or a truce where the two agree to negative-free campaigning? That would be a rarity.

Whatever the case, state Dems are all ears as they monitor the Heinrich-Balderas relationship for signs of what's to come--or not to come. Stay tuned.

Footnotes: Pictured above is Court of Appeals candidate Victor Lopez, Heinrich, Dem southern congressional candidates Evelyn Madrid-Erhard, Court of Appeals candidate Monica Zamora and Balderas.

And we aren't ignoring GOP Senate candidate Greg Sowards, the Las Cruces day Care center owner who has largely self-financed his own campaign and who had over $600,000 banked at year's end, compared to Wilson's $1.1 million. We just haven't seen a sizable number of GOP voters or insiders unhappy with Heather's "moderate" record flocking to him.

NO BUDGET DEBACLE

She kicks up some dust, but we are learning that Governor Martinez rarely draws a line in the sand when it comes to the state budget. One totaling $5.6 billion was approved by a House committee and will get House Approval Wednesday and then be sent to the Senate. Once again there has been only minor disagreement between the GOP Governor and the leading fiscal Dems in the Legislature.

You might say that's because the Dems have a boatload of budget hawks and Susana has little to disagree with them about. Or you might say she realizes she doesn't have the votes to change much in the budget so she toes the line. And unlike a hot button issue like repealing driver's licenses for undocumented immigrants, a budget battle could get her lost in the weeds with little public sympathy. In addition, we have gone from a budget of over $6 billion down to the near $5.3 billion level. State government has shrunk--to the delight of conservatives.

BUDGET COVERING

Former KOAT-TV news political reporter Matt Grubs tells me he is back in New Mexico after a brief out-of-state adventure and is producing news for public TV station KNME-TV. He blogged about the budget for the "In-Focus" broadcast hosted by Gene Grant on Friday evenings.

POLICE BEAT

This email from reader and retired ABQ Police Department Seargent Dan Klein pretty much sums up the meaning of the news over the enormous cost of police misconduct suits:

In the Feb. 6 ABQ Journal article the city admits they have paid out over $30,000,000 of our dollars in the past ten years for police lawsuits. Once again they dump all blame on former ABQ Mayor Marty Chavez. Chief Administrative Officer Rob Perry states that Mayor RJ Berry inherited Marty's policy of no settlements and going to court with all such cases.

Berry also inherited ABQ Police Chief Ray Schultz. That seems to be the common denominator here. Berry could do something about this, but for some reason he holds on to Schultz.

February is the month for love, but the love Berry has for Schultz is costing the Albuquerque taxpayer too much money. When will the Berry administration stop blaming Chavez and start making changes?

Thanks, Dan. He's been covering this story for us with his armchair expertise for many months.

It's apparent that Mayor Berry has made his bed with Schultz and will rely on a community wide fear of crime to overcome Schultz's negatives.

UNGLUED OVER GAY

Another negative that Berry may have to deal with when he stands for re-election in 2013 is opposition from social conservatives in his Republican Party. ABQ Pastor Smotherman is again putting the heat on him for being too gay friendly, a charge he also leveled at Governor Martinez who appointed a gay man--Douglas Howe--to a seat on the Public Regulation Commission. Gay rights advocates protested at his church.

Berry needs a unified GOP in a Democratic city to win another four years. If Smotherman's rants propel an actual conservative candidacy that manages to get on the ballot, it would be a real threat to the mayor.

Martinez, meanwhile, has stayed silent over her gay appointment, She knows it alienates social conservatives in her GOP base, but nevertheless is taking a progressive stance. That's not going to hurt her with the wider swath of voters who have a much more tolerant attitude than the good Pastor Smotherman.

WHERE'S THE SUNSHINE?

Back to the police beat, one our Legal Beagles has a keen question about the many police misconduct settlement cases:

Why isn't there a sunshine law requiring the full reporting of every settlement or verdict resulting from any civil rights violation by the City?

The sealing of settlements to public view covers up the misconduct. The legal fees are reported because they're expenditures requiring accounting. What happened to justify the City paying out more than three times attorney Paul Kennedy's fees in damages, who were the victims, and of what misconduct?

I'll give you fifty bucks if you can show me copies of the civil complaints or tort claims notices filed with the city in five or more cases represented by Kennedy's fees. Take it in cash or a Barelas Coffee House gift card.

Hey, we know a sucker's bet when we see one, Mr. Beagle, even if we will dearly miss that $50 bucks in enchilada money for Barelas. Maybe Gywneth Doland in her new capacity as executive director of the New Mexico Foundation for Open Government can look into this?

ON THE TRAIL

Back to former Mayor Chavez, he's back on the campaign trail these days seeking the Dem nomination for the ABQ US House seat. We caught up with him recently at a Black History Month luncheon where veteran national Dem operative Donna Brazile was the featured speaker.

Chavez developed a strong environmental record as Mayor and formed ties to former VP Al Gore who has been a leading advocate for correcting global warming. Brazile was Gore's campaign manager in 2000 and now spends her time as a commentator, analyst and advocate for President Obama.

Donna posed for the pic, but did not endorse Chavez. He has two opponents--State Sen. Eric Griego and Bernalillo County Commissioner Michelle Lujan Grisham. In this early phase of the campaign, the contest seems winnable by any of the three.

RON OVER MITT

Here's an interesting stat. Ron Paul has out raised Mitt Romney in New Mexico:

In the West: Up 54.7 percent in Alaska ($72,915 for Paul vs. $47,142 for Romney), 4.7 percent in Hawaii ($67,013 vs. $64,030), 29.0 percent in Montana ($75,868 vs. $58,797), and 34.7 percent in New Mexico ($78,057 vs. $57,933)

New Mexico is not without its libertarian streak--just ask Gary Johnson.

IT'S AGONIZING

Veteran ABQ Journal New Mexico politics editor John Robertson is at the Roundhouse for the duration of the 30 day session, but it sounds as if he's had enough. He is looking forward to the annual House-Senate basketball game Friday night:

It’s a good cause, of course, and a welcome break from the legislative session, which has 11 agonizing days to go.

Agonizing, we presume, because there is simply not much for John to write about that is of much interest beyond the political community. However, if big stuff starts to pass in these final days, that will turn on a dime.

The game is a fund-raiser for the UNM Cancer Center.

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Thank You, Mr. Speaker; A Farewell Visit With The Leader Of The House, Also: "Progress" In Santa Fe? And: Senate Poll Debate Scrutinized

2012-02-06T00:54:00.014-07:00

A Blogger & A Speaker
Thank you, Mr. Speaker. That's how we greeted Ben Lujan on our recent visit to his office at the state capitol. In return, he sported the classic broad smile of a politician, patiently posed for photos from my malfunctioning cell phone camera and those of two friends who accompanied me on the visit. His wife, Carmen, amused with the camera hijinx, chuckled as she relaxed at the office conference table.

The Lujans cope with the lung cancer diagnosis that will force him to resign this year by embracing life. And by fighting. Always fighting. And by working.

This is not a speakership atrophying in a pool of sentimentality or self-absorption. There's a job to be done and done it will be. He continues to undergo depleting cancer treatments, while not missing a beat in presiding over the House.

It wasn't supposed to turn out this way. When he announced his cancer diagnosis in a moment of drama and pathos on opening day, the wall-leaners wondered who would sit in for him. The answer is no one. The same determination that made him the second-longest serving House Speaker in state history is now applied to his last great struggle in life--seeing through the job his colleagues have given him and safeguarding what is left of his health.

Ben Lujan, 76, is a working man. Plain and simple. He was an iron worker--a union man (A nonsmoker, his cancer may be work-related). He possesses a keen native intelligence, not one cultivated in the Ivory Tower. His rise to the peak of New Mexican political power in the late 20th and early 21st centuries was not preposterous, but certainly improbable.

His presence in the House for 36 years and at the Speaker's dais these past twelve has been a constant reminder that, in America, the climb up the mountain is for all who care to take it. His climb down that mountain in an era when American economic inequality has gone to extremes makes his departure all the more poignant.

He was always sharply partisan, but a doer not a delayer or a naysayer. Even now with only days remaining in this 30 day session, he looked for common ground when we commented to him that Santa Fe seems hopelessly gridlocked.

"There's a tax incentive bill to attract the headquarters of the Tres Amigas project..It will mean jobs and a good future. The Governor is supportive and we can get this done."

The Lujan-sponsored bill had passed the House only moments before our visit. The project would build a hub across 22 square miles in eastern New Mexico to link the nation's three major electrical grids.

There's no denying that there's been rougher sledding for Lujan since a Republican Governor took office and the Dem majority in the state House has been shaved so close. The R's now sometimes prevail over Lujan's objections. After the session he will spend his final months in power doing all he can on the campaign trail to have his beloved House become more comfortably Democratic.

How different it was for him--for New Mexico--during his glory years when he and Governor Bill Richardson formed perhaps the most accomplished gubernatorial-legislative tag team in state history. The mountain of legislation and the copious public works projects approved during that time of plenty will serve as Lujan's legislative legacy (And so will the election of his son, Ben Ray Lujan, to the northern congressional seat).

You wouldn't expect Lujan to recoil from the battle over his successor. And he isn't. When we arrived without an appointment, his staffers told us it would be a few minutes as he was in a meeting. Moments later, House Majority Leader Kenny Martinez, once Lujan's nemesis and now his protege, emerged from the office, looking every bit like the soldier who has just received his marching orders. Will he be the one to be issuing the orders a year from now? It seems more than likely if the Dems retain power. Does he have the mental toughness--the doggedness--to successfully follow in Lujan's footsteps?

Speaker Lujan over the decades was occasionally snared by what now seem like minor ethical transgressions. He was also scored for turning over too much legislative power to the Governor. His embrace of massive tax cuts for the well-off remain questionable in their aftermath. But this has been a public life well-lived. First and foremost, he avoided the great sin of having political power and doing nothing with it.

As we concluded our visit, Carmen Lujan pointed to a beautiful piece of pottery decorating the Speaker's desk. She noted with a proud and broad smile that it had been given to the Speaker by the Navajo Nation as a symbol of their appreciation.

The Speaker gazed admiringly at the sand-colored pottery, crafted by those who preceded his own ancestors in settling this land he holds so dear. As he reached out to touch the pot we thought of how power has passed in New Mexico through the centuries--sometimes peacefully, sometimes violently. His work now nearly complete, the Speaker will soon be part of that continuum, his life's work duly noted and well-regarded in the never ending book of La Politica.

PROGRESS?

It's interesting to read from some of the capitol press how they expect the do-nothing legislative session to turn into a veritable beehive of progress in the final 10 days of the 30 day session. But it's not going to happen. We are in a new minimalist era-- with a GOP Governor and a Dem Legislature and not a whole lot of cash to count.

What you will get is a state budget which is the constitutionally mandated purpose of this session, However, the signals are loud and clear that we are not going to get major legislation on driver's licenses for undocumented immigrants, eduction reform, tax reform, or economic stimulus. The politicians are tyring to paint a narrative that something of signifigance is getting done in Santa Fe as they prepare for election later this year, ( even the Guv is getting in on it) but it's a hat trick. (Please prove us wrong, Santa Fe.)

The press and the insiders seem to forget that the first legislative session Martinez presided over was also a do-nothing session. Remember how everyone basically wanted to go home after 30 days and the talk was of why we even needed a 60 day session?

What we will get at the end of this session s a logjam of minor measures that may add up to a big number. Some of them will be useful but they won't be a big deal.

SANCHEZ REACT

Campaign insiders tell us that Lt. Gov. John Sanchez has told the three GOP contenders for the ABQ House seat that he will not join them in that race once he drops his bid for the GOP Senate nomination. And reader reaction to the Sanchez news:

He is dead meat politically and basically a political dead man walking.

And another one:

He’s better off staying on as Lt. Governor, despite being frozen out by Martinez during the Senate run. Susana is a rising star and a possible VP pick, and he’s better off hitching his wagon to her rising stardom. It wouldn’t make any sense for him to step down from a statewide office (and possible future promotion to governor) to run for House.

And our take: This withdrawal to come and the brief campaign that he fashioned hurts Sanchez. His previous campaigns have all given him room to go to the next one--even if he was the loser. We are not so sure where John Sanchez goes from here.

HEINRICH AND HEATHER

We blogged recently about how Republicans were grumbling that a poll that showed Heather Wilson trailing Dem Martin Heinrich by one point (45% to 44%) in the race for an open US Senate seat included registered but not "likely" voters. DC Dem political consultant Stephen Clermont has some thoughts::

The value of looking at likely voters this far ahead of the election is generally in the category of interesting, advisory information. The intentions of likely voters months before an election shows the potential that voter turnout can have on the popular vote outcome, but is not a predictor of what that turnout will look like on Election Day. As a rule of thumb, registered voters are the relevant group to establish basic patterns of change in voter support for presidential candidates. Modeling of likely voters at this point is an additional analytic tool.

It is way too early to determine who is going to be a likely voter, so this Colorado College poll of registered voters is a valid barometer of the potential electorate. And it shows what I think everyone can agree on--a Wilson-Heinrich contest will be close and nasty down the stretch. And the polling will likely be within the margin of error from now until Election Day. Expect a lot of TV ads from both sides as well as the Super PACs.

Thanks Stephen. We think your prediction about "a lot of TV ads" is the safest. Where do we hide?

And with exclusive insights like those keeping the campaigns honest, there's no disputing that this is indeed the home of New Mexico politics.

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Sanchez Preps Exit From Senate Race, And Friday Clippings From My Newsroom Floor

2012-02-03T00:54:00.017-07:00

The tentative Senate campaign of John Sanchez is apparently about to end all together. GOP sources say the Lt. Governor is preparing to exit the contest and while one of his consultants says he won't enter the GOP race for the ABQ House seat, Republican eyes will still be watching. Filing date for the congressional races is Feb. 14.

Sanchez's Senate effort never caught fire. He loaned himself most of his campaign funds. "It was like Rick Perry's run for President. A lot of people asked him to run, but when he did he could not pull it off," said one Republican Alligator.

Also, Governor Martinez and the party hierarchy were solidly behind Heather Wilson. It was like his candidacy was killed in the crib.

Another veteran Republican told us:

A smart move for Sanchez as his campaign was going nowhere. Could have been a great candidate for GOP this fall but pissed too many people off along the way. Prob can't take the humiliation of stepping down to a Congressional race after this embarrassment. Those Texan consultants didn't earn their keep.

Sanchez's withdrawal, expected in the days ahead, is a major break for Wilson. If Sanchez had gone the distance, she risked being pounded by national conservative groups with deep pockets who consider her too moderate. Now she should have a relatively easy road to the nomination. Las Cruces day care center owner Greg Sowards reports having $600,000 in the bank, but neither the organization or support to yet pose a serious threat to Wilson who has banked $1.1 million.

If Sanchez were to enter the ABQ congressional race he would face Dan Lewis, Janice Arnold-Jones and Gary Smith. But such a late switch could also cause major divisions within the party. Still, many R's believe a Hispanic nominee would be their best bet against the Dems.

We start our Friday clips with this:

ABQ Dem Senator Dede Feldman introduced a rule change for the New Mexico State Senate which would ban the carrying of firearms on the senate floor, in the senate gallery or in the committee rooms.

Is that so they don't shoot each other?...

Also from Santa Fe, is one term enough? Apparently so for Valencia County GOP State Rep. David Chavez. A source close to him says it is "highly unlikely" that Chavez, an attorney, will seek re-election this year. That will leave the Dems with an opportunity to take it back after losing it to Chavez in 2010. The district has gotten more Dem friendly with redistricting, reports a Dem consultant.

UPDATE--Chavez emails in that he is "still in the race" and should he decide otherwise we will be among the first to know. Maybe that source moved him off the dime.

SILENT SUSANA

Governor Susana would not give an interview to the Santa Fe Reporter about her first year in office, but they went ahead and did their story without it. Why blacklist a publication just because it has a liberal point of view? Aren't you Governor of all the people? Not that Susana is the first to take it out on the ink-stained wretches. Back in the 80's, GOP Governor Garrey Carruthers refused to talk to the now defunct ABQ Tribune because he disagreed with their coverage. But the "us against them" attitude is much more of a trademark with the new breed of consultants and press flacks.

NO PICS, PLEASE

A number of readers agreed with our support of the decision of Legislative Council Director Raul Burciaga to deny the Guv's request to put pictures of foster children who are up for adoption on thew walls of the Roundhouse. Paula Tackett was Burciaga's predecessor, holding the post for 22 years. From Santa Fe, she wrote:

Joe--I wrote my first letter to the editor today after many years of not and obviously took Raul's position. Then he showed my your comments and I just wanted to write you to say "thank you " as well. Your level of rationality gives me hope. Thanks again.

And ABQ attorney Antoinette Sedillo Lopez came with this:

Hi Joe, I was curious about whether the Governor's office has obtained the appropriate releases to post pictures of foster children publicly? I think many of those children might find that having their picture on the wall of such a public building might be embarrassing. I agree with you. Raul Burciaga was correct. It is the people's building and a fantastic showcase for local artists. The only way for the building to remain free of political agendas is to "just say no" to any and all causes...

Thanks for the note, Antoinette. The photographs were put together by the Heart Gallery of New Mexico Foundation.

DI'S DEAL

I ran into former Lt. Governor Diane Denish at the coffee shop the other morning and she gave us this letter she had just sent out:

Joe: Here is what I sent out. Since then, I have changed it to include Boys, many of whom are also responding.

Ok Girls: As Woody Guthrie said in his new year's resolution #33 : Wake up and fight! Now is the time. The Susan G. Komen Foundation has joined the war on women and women's health. They have announced they will no longer fund Planned Parenthood for Breast Cancer Detection. They have caved to the pressure of those who want to forever close the doors on Planned Parenthood. Please, call or email the Local NM Chapter. info@komencnm.org or call them @ 505-265-4649.

Tell them to follow the example of our neighboring Denver who said they would buck the national office and continue to fund PP in Denver. This is not about politics, it is about women's health. Planned Parenthood NM provides hundreds of women with early detection services and funding is critical... Do this for the woman you know who has had breast cancer and survived because of early detection. Do it for the thousands who didn't survive...

UPDATE: Susan G. Komen for the Cure has reversed its decision to cut off grant money to Planned Parenthood following an intense backlash from women’s groups and the left.

CLEAN IT UP

Bernalillo County Commission Chairman Art De La Cruz reports:

Youth groups, school clubs and teams are encouraged to apply for grants of up to $500 as part of Bernalillo County’s annual South Valley Clean Up Day. The grants will be awarded to nonprofit youth groups that help remove litter during the county’s annual South Valley event on April 14. Visit www.bernco.gov/fun to access the application. Applicants can also contact the Parks and Recreation Department at 505.314.0400 or parks@bernco.gov for more information.

DISSING DENTAL

A Senior Alligator leaning against the walls at the Roundhouse says our support for building a dental school at the University of New Mexico is misplaced and is not gaining any traction:

Your idea to start a dental school is going over like a lead balloon. There are plenty of dentists in New Mexico, but not always in the places where they are needed most. The dental hygienist and dental assistant pools are growing from the graduates of UNM, CNN, and proprietary schools. Also, vans take patients to Mexico for excellent dental care at affordable prices. The people who lined up for free dental care are an argument for affordable dental care not a dental school.

Okay, Senior Gator. But it wasn't our idea to build a dental school. Senator Bingaman and Big Bill were in the fore on this one. We still support it as we don't see filling vans up with dental patients and taking them down to Juarez lives up to the promise that is American health care. And we'd like to see New Mexico kids get the chance to go to a dental school here and become part of the professional class--just as they do with our medical and law schools.

THEY SAID IT

An Arizona state senator arguing against a measure to give the film industry tax incentives:

“We should not have to pay the bribe price to get companies to come here,” he said. “Disney? Give me a break! How much money does Hannah Montana make?”

Besides, he said, New Mexico doesn’t necessarily benefit from all the filming. Take the cable show Breaking Bad, he said. The show, which is filmed there, glorifies the meth trade and narco traffickers, he said.

Hey, Senator from Arizona, be careful what you say about us. Did you forget that our Governor is packing heat?

THE BOTTOM LINES

Jay Leno:

"Well, Mitt Romney's campaign will start getting Secret Service protection this week. That's just to protect him from Newt Gingrich."

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They Thought It Would Be Easy: How The Guv, the GOP And The Conservative Press Overplayed Their Hand On Driver's Licenses For Undocumented Immigrants

2012-02-02T00:54:00.023-07:00

Something is happening here but you don't know what it is... famously crooned Bob Dylan. It's a fitting phrase for the never-ending debate at the NM Legislature over Governor Martinez's repeated pleas to repeal the law allowing undocumented immigrants to have driver's licenses. Just why can't she win on what appears to be a no-brainer issue? After all, she repeatedly warns lawmakers that polling shows 72% of the public wants the law repealed. And there has even been evidence that the fraud associated with the licenses is not isolated. It may seem simple to the Governor but interviews with Alligators, pundits, wall-leaners and hangers-on, show it isn't.

Today we have for you what we think is the first real analysis of why this emotional wedge issue that dominates the state's political agenda remains stuck in the mud and in all likelihood will stay there.

--Intensity. Seventy-two percent of New Mexicans may say they want the licenses repealed, but how much do they care? Not as much as the Governor and her political team would like you to think. The truth is illegal immigration is a top priority of the Republican Party but not of the populace as a whole. That's why Democratic Senators are not caving en masse. They know other issues will decided their election fate.

--Overall, voters are most concerned about jobs and their personal financial condition. We are living through the most precarious economic times in recent history. Illegal immigration and driver's licenses don't register in their pocketbooks.

--Illegal immigration has sunk to record lows. The economic recession/Depression here means fewer jobs for everyone. The problem--especially in the state's cities--is nowhere near as noticeable as it was during the late great bull market.

--The jobs undocumented immigrants traditionally fill are not highly sought by most New Mexico residents. Those are back-breaking jobs in agriculture, hotel maids, construction workers and the like. That tamps down resentment and in turn the desire for punitive legislation such as the license repeal.

--New Mexico is a majority-minority state. Hispanics, Native Americans, African-Americans and Asians make up the majority. There is widespread empathy for immigrants--illegal and otherwise--another reason the body politic here does not get in as much as an uproar as it does in less diverse states.

--And we would add one more reason to the list--political fumbling. The Governor's all or nothing approach which is designed to set up Dems for a fall in the election booths, means a no compromise approach. A bill that fell short of outright appeal could put us on the path toward total repeal, but she has insisted on a total repeal--no compromise.

The Republicans could very well pick up a targeted seat or two over the driver's license issue, but they are not going to take over the New Mexican government with it. The Governor, the conservative press and the political operatives appear to have all overreached in their reading of the polls and the general public's true desires. You could disagree with our analysts, but for the third time in a row repeal of the driver's licenses is dying a slow death in Santa Fe. They seem to be on to something.

SHANNON RETURNS?

How about this? The possible return of former longtime ABQ Dem State Senator Shannon Robinson, but as a Republican. Say what? From the Alligator wire:

Democrat State Senator Shannon Robinson may challenge ABQ Democrat Senator Tim Keller for Senate District 17 in the November general election. Robinson changed his voter registration from Democrat to Republican on 12/28/11 and the "third party voter registration agent" is none other than oil and gas operator, Republican financier and former NM GOP Chairman Harvey Yates, Jr. Rumor has it that Robinson plans to challenge Keller in the general election as a Republican--a scheme Robinson and Yates concocted together.

If this comes down, call it "Shannon's Revenge." The veteran attorney was defeated in the June 2008 Dem primary by none other than Tim Keller. And talk about politics making for strange bedfellows. Harvey Yates and Shannon Robinson? That's stranger than the UFO exhibits down in Roswell.

MICHELLE AND EMILY
Lujan Grisham
ABQ Dem City Councilor Debbie O'Malley writes of the fund-raising of Dem congressional candidate Michelle Lujan Grisham:

In your post you stated, “Lujan-Grisham has received some early backing from Emily's List--the powerful pro-choice women's group--and that appeared to help her fund-raising.” EMILY’s List has yet to give her a "full endorsement." She has not received much help from the them and still out raised her opponents—that’s pretty impressive. Now that she has two consecutive quarters where she is the money leader, a full endorsement is all but inevitable. When it happens it’s apt to be a “game changer.” In the next report, voters in CD1 will see the power women have when they organize.

Organization is key in a primary and while Michelle has had two good money quarters, she has to catch up to Eric Griego and Marty Chavez in that department. We're watching to see if she can.

And an Alligator email on Michelle's money report:

To Michelle’s credit, she did better on raising money than people expected her to. That said, she has zero organization. All three candidates will spend roughly the same amount on TV, but guess what? Michelle doesn’t have the organization to turn the voters out. Don’t get me wrong--she can easily go on a spending binge starting immediately to hire lots of organizers and build her campaign infrastructure, but she’s so far behind the curve that she’d have to spend and hire double what Marty and Eric’s done respectively. Marty has invested in building a strong organization. And Eric has invested in building a strong organization. Michelle? None. Nada.

PAY THE LAWYERS

While the money isn't bad in ABQ, generally it pays more to be a lawyer in Santa Fe. By the numbers :

Lawyers in Santa Fe make an average annual salary of $117,190, or $56.34 per hour, based on U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics data. The BLS data puts 280 lawyers in Santa Fe as of May 2010.The runner up in New Mexico is the Albuquerque area, where its 1,560 lawyers earn an average of $90,080 annually.

Over 1,500 hundred lawyers in the ABQ area? That has to work to keep their prices down.

REVERSE HALL?

Is there a chance that the judge in the legislative redistricting case could be reversed by the State Supreme Court? Dems have sued there asking that Judge Hall's plan be overturned, saying it is biased toward the R's. We asked one of our Legal Beagles for the latest:

I heard a lot of talk at the Legislature's opening day along the lines of "the Supreme Court appointed Jim Hall, they won't reverse him."

I personally think that to do so requires far greater math skills than they'd want to utilize.

The Supremes appointed Judge Hall to do the redistricting after the Legislature failed to come to an agreement.

COMING OUT AHEAD

We blogged the other day of how State Senate Rules Committee Chair Linda Lopez made a play against the nomination of Greg Marcantel as Secretary of Corrections. The administration called it a "smear" job and fought back hard. And on this one we would say the Fourth Floor played it right. The vote news:

A move to derail Gov. Susana Martinez's nominee to run the state prison system fell flat Wednesday. State senators voted 38-1 to confirm Gregg Marcantel as secretary of the Department of Corrections. Sen. Linda Lopez, D-Albuquerque, stood alone in opposing Marcantel, saying she was not satisfied that he honestly answered questions about his past. Lopez is chairwoman of the Senate Rules Committee, which runs background checks on nominees for high-tier government appointments. She said Marcantel, unlike hundreds of nominees before him, did not properly answer a question about a history of workplace discipline.

But then there's Susana's state fair commissioners. The Senate played games with the Guv on those. She tried to withdraw the nominations, but the Senate went ahead and voted on them anyway.

BUT WILL HE SPEND?

Las Cruces day care center owner and GOP US Senate candidate Greg Sowards announces:

Conservative Republican U.S. Senate Candidate Greg Sowards announced that his campaign will show over $636,000 in cash on hand after the fourth quarter transition:

"We have turned a major corner at the Sowards for Senate camp. I have brought on a new Campaign Manager and a new Grassroots Coordinator. My message of restoration is resonating with the people of New Mexico and America. We are now well-positioned to mount an impressive fund raising drive."

Sowards has largely self-financed his campaign. When he turned over his initial campaign team, there was speculation that he was getting cold feet and would not spend much of the money he loaned to himself. His main rival, Heather Wilson, has $1.1 million in the bank and Sowards remains a long shot at toppling her. But if he does end up spending a bunch of TV money it will probably help Wilson as it would take votes away from Lt. Governor John Sanchez who is seen as her most formidable rival. Meantime, Sanchez has been so MIA in the Senate race that he has to quash rumors that he will leave the Senate contest and seek the GOP nod for the ABQ Congressional seat. His chief consultant says no switch is planned.

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Latest Cash Reports Pinpoint Front Runners In Key Races, Plus: Another Senate Poll The R's Don't Like But The Dems Do, And: Thank You, Raul Burciaga

2012-02-01T00:58:00.023-07:00

The federal candidate cash reports have poured in for the final quarter of last year and here's where it takes the Alligator consensus:

---Eric Griego and Marty Chavez are neck and neck for the ABQ Dem US House nomination with Michelle Lujan Grisham having the money now to join them and Dan Lewis assumes the front-runner role for the Republican nod.

---Martin Heinrich is the hands-down front-runner for the Dem US Senate nomination and the same holds true for Republican Heather Wilson.

---The open US Senate seat is ranked "lean Dem" for the November election and the ABQ congressional seat is "likely Dem."

Neither Griego or Chavez blew the fund-raising doors off their hinges. Griego, an ABQ state senator, reported raising $143,000 for the quarter and ending it with $208,000 in cash in the bank. Former ABQ Mayor Chavez reports raising $149,000 (including a $15,000 loan) and having $217,000 in cash. Numbers for Michelle Lujan Grisham came out Wednesday morning and surprised:

Reporting...$278,173.62 money in the bank Lujan Grisham has established herself as a significant force in the upcoming primary election. Lujan Grisham’s campaign is reporting $161,529.98 raised (including a $20,000 loan) for the last quarter of 2011. Lujan Grisham has $69,696.15 more than State Senator Eric Griego, and $60,548.73 more than former Albuquerque mayor Marty Chavez.

Lujan Grisham has received some early backing from Emily's List--the powerful pro-choice women's group--and that appeared to help her fund-raising. Also, she has spent hardly any money and now has to get moving on putting her campaign together. Michelle opted to save her money while Eric and Marty were putting together their political operation.

Griego and Chavez are inching closer to a one-on-one duel, but much of it may play out in the mailboxes, not as much on the TV screens as inthe past. $200k with five months to go is not much and that means grassroots activism will be more important than usual. Lujan Grisham remains the wild card, not getting the early start with endorsements and organizations these two have, but competing on the cash count. And there are still a couple of months to raise the TV money.

The two longtime political foes--Chavez and Griego--are sure to come after each other with all they have, especially in light of the money reports that show they are heavily outraising their Republican foes. ABQ City Councilor Lewis reported raising $64,000 and had $102,000 in cash in the bank, retired Army Seargent Gary Smith $88,000 and former ABQ State Rep. Janice Arnold-Jones only $20,000.

It will get easier for Lewis to raise money now that Jon Barela has decided not to run, but not by much. R's don't seem animated by this contest. The Dems are collecting much more cash than the R's, an early signal that the district is tilting toward them and exciting the Dem contenders.

On the Senate side, Hector Balderas reports raising $108,000 in the fourth quarter, compared to $483,000 for Martin Heinrich, Hector has $434,000 in cash in the bank and Heinrich has about $1.4 million. The numbers speak for themselves.

In the GOP contest, Lt. Governor John Sanchez did not release his numbers, meaning there will be no positive surprise and leaving Heather Wilson the undisputed front runner for the nomination. She reports $1.1 million in the bank. The third hopeful, Greg Sowards, is largely self-financing and does not pose the threat to Wilson that Sanchez could.

POLL WATCH

Another poll out on the race for New Mexico's open US Senate seat confirms our ranking of it as "lean Dem." Republican Heather Wilson continues to trail Dem Martin Heinrich in a hypothetical fall match-up. However, this survey shows the two nearly tied, with Heinrich leading 45% to 44%. MOE is 4 percent. A poll from the Dem firm PPP conducted in December had Wilson losing by 7 points.

The problem is that Wilson has superior statewide name ID to Heinrich, having served 10 years in congress to his three. Also, she ran for the GOP nod for Senate in 2008. That Wilson is not ahead and Heinrich lagging is the real news here, although R's have got to be breathing a sigh of relief that they can still argue the race remains in play and winnable.

R's panned the PPP poll, arguing its sample was flawed. Now they are blasting this one for being done only among "registered" voters, not "likely" voters. They say a poll of likely voters would be more favorable to Heather. They have a point, but when are they going to get a poll they like? That means one that shows the quasi-incumbent Wilson ahead.

It's a good question. Wilson's unfavorable ratings after years in politics and many negative campaigns are higher than Heinrich's. Veteran observers say it is holding her back and preventing her from moving toward the 50% threshold. Again, with her high name ID, this is not good. Voters know Heather. That means she will have to win the race by going negative on Heinrich and his short record in public service makes that tricky.

Other observers we respect don't necessarily see it our way and say that Wilson can reinvent herself. That's what makes for a good debate, but we see the R's spinning overtime trying to keep this race in play. Wilson has shown she is qualified to hold a US Senate seat, but she is going to have to show us better numbers to make us a believer that her past baggage is not bogging her down.

This survey was a team effort between a GOP and Dem firm. The R company is Public Opinion Strategies (POS) where Nicole McCleskey, wife of Governor Martinez's chief political advisor Jay McCleskey is employed. The Dem firm is Fairbank, Maslin etc. The poll was conducted in early January for the Colorado College State of the Rockies Project and is posted here.

By the way, in that poll the job performance of Gov. Martinez is "strongly approved" by 34% and 27% "somewhat approve." A December PPP poll had her favorable rating at 50%. This poll would have the overall favorable at 61%, but we don't like the phrasing, "somewhat approve." It seems misleading. Why not ask if is she doing an excellent, good, fair or poor job? Or ask straight up whether voters approve or disapprove of her performance? That's what PPP did. We'd say Susana--as of early January---had an overall approval rating of over 50%. That's good for a GOP Governor in a Dem state. Until we see a clear cut polling question that takes her higher, we'll stop at that number.

RAUL IS RIGHT

Raul Burciaga, you are right. But you are going to take heat for your level-headed decision denying a request from Governor Martinez and not permitting photos of foster kids up for adoption to be posted on the walls of the Roundhouse. A newspaper editorial decried the decision, calling it heartless. But it isn't.

As director of the Legislative Council Service, Mr. Burciaga presides over a spectacular building that has a special place in the hearts of New Mexicans. The one-of-a-kind and awe inspiring art collection on permanent display is a testament to the hard work and loving care that has gone into making a visit to the capitol an unforgettable adventure for resident and tourist alike.

The last thing we need is the bevy of interest groups that parade to the capitol arguing that their cause deserves to be highlighted upon its walls--no matter how controversial or off-putting Everyone has a soft spot for kids and it's unfortunate that the Governor has gone down this road, but Burciaga's job is to look at the big picture and that he does. He says:

The issue is simply that we have always done our best to keep any kind of cause, if you will, from being featured at the Capitol. As soon as we do that, then we start getting things that are little more questionable.

And that's putting it politely. In today's toxic political environment who knows what requests Burciaga would be fielding once he broke with the valuable tradition of not allowing any postings other than the timeless and apolitical art that celebrates our state.

Since 1966, the capitol has been a repository of New Mexico culture and art. There is plenty of partisan politics in the House and Senate chambers and committee rooms--more than enough. Do we really want that spilling out into the hallways? That's where we're likely headed if the no posting decision is reversed.

Burciaga made a tough call, but that's what he is there for--to protect the politicians from themselves. Thanks, Raul.

THE BOTTOM LINES

It's newsman Milan Simonich, not the other first name we gave him in a blog first draft Tuesday, He toils for Texas-New Mexico newspapers of which there are eight....And candidates for statewide judicial offices file their petition signatures on Feb. 14, not the date or dates we have been using.

This is the home of New Mexico politics.

E-mail your news and comments. (jmonahan@ix.netcom.com)

Interested in reaching New Mexico's political community? Advertise here. Email us for details.

(c)NM POLITICS WITH JOE MONAHAN 2012

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