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Friday, October 03, 2008

Sarah And Joe: How Did They Do? NM Analysts Weigh In, Plus: Wild About Harry; Teague Enjoying A Good Run, But Tinsley Lurks 

If Sarah Palin further excited the conservative base of the GOP because of Thursday night's debate with Joe Biden, that would be good news for the R's in southern NM who fear an upset in their congressional race. (see below) They need more enthusiasm on the ground for McCain. But overall, New Mexico analysts interviewed felt Palin may have done more to shed her airhead image than anything else.

"This was not a game-changing debate, but she did stop the bleeding the Republican ticket was suffering. In three or four days, this will not be a well-remembered event, but she did help herself, if not necessarily the standing of McCain," analyzed veteran Dem Mike Santullo as we made the cell phone rounds into the late night hours. He added that Palin did not help herself when she strayed and did not address the questions she was asked.

"She reinvigorated the campaign because she performed above expectations, but now it's up to McCain to close the sale," said longtime Republican Eric Lucero, a GOP Ward chairman in Bernalillo County.

Veteran Dem analyst Harry Pavlides agreed that Palin stopped the bleeding for the R's and made inroads with conservative voters who are still undecided, but not more. "Biden won the war, but she won the battle she needed to win--which was to stop the questions about her intelligence and experience."

But did Palin do more than help consolidate votes that should naturally be with the R's? There was no clear evidence that she had if post-debate polls and focus groups run by the networks were to be believed.

Respected conservative columnist Charles Krauthammer wrote this missive prior to the debate, but it is worth noting that he believes Obama is about to take the White House. In NM, Rasmussen's latest numbers say it is Obama 49 to McCain's 44. SurveyUSA gives it to Obama 52 to 44.

WILD ABOUT HARRY?

Southern Dem congressional contender Harry Teague is starting to get some good national press over his chances of becoming the first Dem to take the southern House seat since Harold Runnels won in 1980. The nonpartisan Cook Political Report now puts the race for the seat in the "toss-up" category switching it from the "lean Republican" column. Teague's campaign came with a poll showing him leading Tinsley 46 to 41, but the poll was taken back on September 2nd. How about some fresh numbers? Well, we will get some soon enough from the ABQ Journal survey.

Roll Call reports rancher Tinsley, former head of the National Restaurant Association has spent $500,000 of his own cash on the general election. Campaign fund-raising is said to be lackluster.

Teague from Hobbs is a wealthy oil man, but he appears to be raising good money from outside of hs own wallet. That the race is now ranked a toss-up outside of the state--we've had it in that category for a couple of months--could mean late money coming in to both camps.

Geography is shaping the race. Dems have found a candidate from Lea County which Republicans normally carry by huge numbers. If Teague eats into Tinsley's lead there and scores a healthy win in Dona Ana County--the district's most populous--it will be hard for Ed to make up the numbers elsewhere in the sprawling district. But this is a very conservative district. If the R's have any chance of bringing home their own and conservative Dems, it is here.

Harry needs to work furiously to the end and take advantage of every puff of that Democratic wind he has at his back. Ed may have to write a bigger check.

MORE ON McCAIN

As we blogged Thursday, we don't have an exact date for the next McCain visit, but our report that he will be here sometime around October 10th was based on a direct quote from McCain who conducted a phone call with several NM political candidates recently.

"He said he would be here in the second week of October, and that he wanted us to greet his plane when it lands," said one of those with knowledge of the call.

The chair of the McCain campaign in Chaves County, Beth Ryan, says she has been told McCain is slated to be in Minnesota and Wisconsin on the 10th. Presidential candidate campaign schedules this close to the election can change on a dime, but we wanted to let you know our report came directly from the candidate. We'll keep you posted.

THAT LOW?

Can the approval rating of Congress really be as low as 10 percent as we mentioned Thursday? It can. In fact, a Rasmussen poll in July put it at nine percent.

THE BOTTOM LINES

We end the week on an appropriate note: With a pro-bailout rage from reader Linda Rose

It is not only the CEO's that are greedy it is ALL of us!! The blame should be put on everyone shoulders of America, it is you and me that voted these so called politicians in office and it is you and me that tries to buy a house that we can't afford. It is you and me that use up all the gas just for nonsensical trips that needs to be done away with. Every citizen of the United States of America needs to wake up and clean their own house.

Thanks, Linda. But many of us aren't buying homes we can't afford or wasting gasoline; it was Wall Street that ran amok, abetted by a head-in-the-sand Congress and White House.

Thanks for stopping by. Come back soon. E-mail your news and comments.

(c)NM POLITICS WITH JOE MONAHAN 2008
Not for reproduction without permission of the author

Thursday, October 02, 2008

Bailout Causes A Case Of Uncertain Congress Candidates, Plus: McCain Sets Next NM Visit, And: Fresh Senate Polling & Readers React To Big Economy News 

Everything about the lackluster campaigns for the ABQ and southern congressional seats is summed up in the way the candidates handled their responses to the $700 billion bailout bill. When the campaigns of Ed Tinsley and Darren White were first asked where they stood on the bailout, Tinsley's campaign gave a non-answer and White's campaign delayed commenting. That led us to reasonably conclude (and blog) that the two candidates were apparently for the bailout. But after putting their fingers to the wind, White and Tinsley told the ABQ Journal they would have voted against the bailout. And Democrat Martin Heinrich doesn't get off the hook. Even now, the paper reports, Martin isn't saying how he would have voted on legislation of a lifetime! (Southern Dem Harry Teague says he would have voted against the bailout.)

The tentativeness and uncertainty of the state's congressional candidates when dealing with spontaneous news stories has been the most revealing aspect of Campaign '08, not the ubiquitous and manipulative 30 second campaign commercials. These are the most heavily handled candidates we've seen in years. Because these hopefuls have such limited political experience, everyone is trying to avoid making the big mistake, while the voters try to figure out which of them can lead. That's why we need free wheeling TV debates, so we can determine the true characters of these novice political characters.

PETE & JEFF

Even some of those with lengthy political experience seemed out of touch with the public rage and anger at the government. NM GOP Senator Pete Domenici drew the wrath of CNN's Lou Dobbs, among many others, for attaching a mental health parity bill to the historic financial bailout legislation the Senate approved Wednesday night. This, after Domenici warned of dire consequences if a bailout bill is not approved. Guess things aren't so dire after all if there's room for Pete's pet project during a national crisis. Now the House must debate that issue along with the critical economic measures. Pete did get a nod for this work--not from the conservatives, but from the liberal editorial pages of the New York Times. That's how upside down the politics of the bailout has become.

Even NM Dem Senator Bingaman, who voted for the bailout last night and is as thoughtful as they get, could not resist loading up the bailout bill with his pet cause--"clean energy" tax incentives. How that is related to the matter at hand loses the public, but that's the way the Congress does business. Its current approval rating is around 10 percent. The bill now goes to the House for a Friday vote. Senate hopefuls Udall and Pearce voted against the first bailout bill. They say they are undecided on this one.

OVER THE TOP?

Is Darren White's new TV ad using the father and mother of slain sheriff's deputy James McGrane over the top? KOB-TV's Stuart Dyson and I tackled that question. Here's the report.

Some observers were critical not just of White, but of McGrane's parents for lending themselves and their son's memory to a political campaign. The ad featuring the McGrane's is White's response to an attack ad Dem Martin Heinrich has run against the sheriff questioning his law enforcement credentials, but never mentions Deputy McGrane or the incident that took his life. The emotions of aggrieved parents can be understood, but when they come on the public stage their motives and statements are going to come under scrutiny. Such are the hot flames of La Politica in an election year October.

NO CHANGE


The calendar may have changed to a new month, but not the chances of Republican Steve Pearce to become the next NM US Senator. The latest SurveyUSA poll released Wednesday shows a huge lead for Dem Tom Udall. It's Udall 58 percent to Pearce's 39 and three percent undecided. That may exaggerate Udall's lead some, but clearly the economic crisis is benefiting the Democrats nationwide. Without that as a backdrop, Udall would likely be lower. But that's the reality Pearce has to deal with--somehow.

HE'S BACK

Maybe John McCain can lift the spirits of New Mexico R's. He'll be back here on or around October 10 for a visit that could take him around the state, report our reliable insiders. Will Pearce do what Bush did in October 2004 and do a swing through rural NM? Experts say McCain needs to close the gap with Obama here by bringing home votes in conservative southern NM. He is still not performing up to par in that region. That could help McCain with his statewide standing and also give a lift to GOP Southern congressional hopeful Ed Tinsley who is in danger of losing the US House seat to Dem Harry Teague.

Speaking of Teague, he's been stung by that TV spot from GOP rival Ed Tinsley that accuses him of being anti-gun. He came with this response. The tag line not so subtly hints at Tinsley's part-time Santa Fe residence. "Ed Tinsley. Not for us. Not one of us."

In Tinsley's attack ad, he cites a quote from the ABQ Journal that says Teague described himself as "not a gun fan" and that "it would be fine with me to turn my guns in.." to the government. As with the White ad in which the candidate does not address the specific charges, Teague's response also ignores the specifics, issuing a blanket denial and then going on to level new charges against Tinsley. Teague has said he owns several guns.

WEAKS ON THE WEAK ECONOMY

If we are going to have a slowdown in our state, NM lobbyist Dan Weaks thinks there's something we could do about it--right now.

Wouldn’t it be a good idea to fast track the $1 billion plus in public projects that are grinding through the government capital outlay process? Let's cut the red tape and set up a task force to get the stalled projects going...Streamline the approvals and put our money to work creating jobs instead of leaving huge amounts in low earning investments. And, if the state is having concerns selling bonds needed for the construction, why not offer a sale to New Mexicans and New Mexico institutions with reasonable rates of return? Use local institutions instead of the national jolly green incompetent giants. We may not have a recession; we may just have constipation...


And they are not "make work" jobs Weaks is talking about. The projects--community improvements statewide--have been authorized and budgeted, but we have dragged our feet and the money, as Weaks points out, is just sitting there. Sounds like an opportunity for all three major players--The Legislature, Big Bill and possible future Guv Lady Di. Will one of them grab it?

BAIL EM' OUT!

Reader Norman Shatkin blogs in from Lake Katrine, NY to chastise us for not supporting the $700 billion Wall Street bailout, and praising Rep. Steve Pearce and Udall for their votes against the measure:

What Pearce is doing is staking out an "anti-government" position because most people don't understand the issue and are appalled at the idea of the government bailing out Wall Street. It IS appalling, but the things we've witnessed in the past few months are unprecedented...People who understand the issues say that doing nothing is not an option. The world runs on credit, and credit really has seized up. (Treasury Secretary) Paulson's proposal, as modified by Congress, may or may not solve the problem, but Pearce's is not any better, and pretending that the situation isn't all that bad isn't going to change the fact...

Let's clarify, Norman. Some credit, not all, has seized up. See our blog on NM's independent banks that we ran Wednesday. We agree something needs to be done, but we applaud Pearce and Udall for voting down the initial plan. That gives us a chance to get something better and better thought out. In other words, fear-mongering, threats and panic is not the answer.

BANK ON IT, OR NOT?

Reader John Gniady, reacting to our blog yesterday noting the decline in the stock of regional bank First State Bancorp, says we may have been too optimistic when we said there did not appear to be "cracks in the finances" of the regional bank. He notes the stock fell hard again Wednesday and bears watching. Hard to argue with that in this charged atmosphere. We will note that deposits of up to $100,000 in First State, as in most banks, are insured by the FDIC.

THE BOTTOM LINES

She's in. KOAT-TV and the ABQ Journal have relented and invited independent 
northern congressional hopeful Carol Miller to their Oct. 19 6 p.m. debate. KOAT initially excluded Miller, but she says her supporters convinced the station to reverse the decision. We were among those who urged the station to have not only Democrat Ben Ray Lujan and Republican Dan East on the televised forum, but also Miller. She collected 11,000 signatures to make the ballot. KOAT did the right thing. Now how about some debates in prime time?

The AP's Heather Clark is worried that the economic crisis is keeping Tom Udall and Steve Pearce away from the campaign trail on a full-time basis. Now, if only the voters felt that way....

This is the home of New Mexico politics. E-mail your news comments. Reporting from Albuquerque, NM, I'm Joe Monahan.

(c)NM POLITICS WITH JOE MONAHAN 2008
Not for reproduction without permission of the author

Wednesday, October 01, 2008

Credit Crisis? Not Around Here, But Economy Looms Over Jobs, Plus: A Bunch Of Fun Campaign Action From Your First of October Blog 

After listening to hyperbolic TV talking heads Mr. and Mrs. New Mexico could hardly be faulted if they thought of heading to the craps tables at Sandia to try to cover their stock losses and finding additional succor by loudly playing "Can't Buy me Love" on their iPods. But the reality of the situation, according to a top NM finance man, is hardly that stark.

"If there's one message I would like to get out to New Mexicans is that we have money to lend; we are open for business and want to do business," declared Jerry Walker a former legislator and now the President and CEO of the Independent Community Bankers Association of New Mexico.

"We don't have rotten paper on our balance sheets. And the energy industry is doing well. But small banks have been tarred along with the ones that are really in trouble," explained Walker who calls Farmington home.

There has been some downside action in the stock of First State Bancorp because of Fannie Mae stock it owned and had to write down, but no signs of any cracks in the finances of that or other local banks. Knock on wood.

Walker's palliative is a welcome fear antidote. But if there is a major economic slowdown even small banks could take a hit if their real estate and other loans get into trouble. But for now, Walker insists, the spigot is turned on in New Mexico. If you have decent credit you can get a loan for whatever constitutes your personal American Dream.

SHRINKING CITY HALL?
Chavez
Getting a loan in NM may not be the big problem in this economic environment but keeping your job could be. At ABQ's City Hall, where they are counting on growth of only two percent this fiscal year, tax collection projections are already running short. Mayor Chavez ordered a hiring freeze for vacant positions last year when the economy slowed. You have to wonder now much more water he can get out of that rock if a major recession takes hold. He has not cut services, and delivering those services with fewer employees who are eligible for overtime have to be taking their toll.

Fifty-three percent of the city budget goes to public safety. If things get rough, Chavez's instinct may be to promise no layoffs at the police and fire departments. But he may want to hold his fire. If there is going to be economic hell to pay, the public may want the 11th Floor to start trimming the fat even in those popular, but perhaps over-budgeted agencies. Critics will charge that Chavez gave the city too many big budgets during the good times, but we didn't see the city council or public objecting. Chavez plans to seek a third term next year. So far, no heavyweight foes have surfaced. Could rough economic waters change that?

In Santa Fe, Governor Big Bill is yet to take serious the suggestion from Senate Finance Committee Co-Chair John Arthur Smith, known by the Guv as "Dr. No," that the state start cutting back nonessential spending. This as the projected energy surplus disappears in the face of declining oil and natural gas prices. But if prices don't rebound soon, a day of reckoning will come. The state has ample reserves to cushion an initial decline, but if it gets deep, cherished state government jobs, for the first time in memory, could be eyed for possible layoffs or a hiring freeze. Don't say we didn't tell you.

HEINRICH VS. WHITE

This ad from Dem congressional hopeful Martin Heinrich against Republican rival and Bernalillo County Sheriff Darren White drew real blood. It hits White for losing a confidence vote from state police when he headed up the state department of public safety. It drew enough blood for White to come with a response spot Tuesday featuring the parents of slain sheriff's deputy James McGrane. They repudiate Heinrich for questioning White's competence as a lawman. McGrane was killed while making a traffic stop in March 2006. The White ad is posted here. Does the ad exploit the murder of a lawman for political purposes? The parents did agree to appear, but this powerful ad is sure to raise the issue.

READY FOR THE POLL

Insiders say they are hearing the ABQ Journal's first poll of the election season will hit the streets this Sunday. That would mean polling this week. We do know the paper will do only two surveys. If Dem Heinrich is tied or ahead of Republican White in the ABQ House race in this first poll, it would be the first time that a Dem polled ahead this early in the cycle. Heinrich in recent months has come with two polls showing him leading, the most recent last Friday. If the Journal poll does not agree, White's camp will get a boost.

LET THERE BE PEACE

It was a nasty primary fight, that showdown for the northern Dem congressional nomination between Ben Ray Lujan, Santa Fe developer Don Wiviott and an assortment of other contenders. But Wiviott and Lujan appear to be healing their wounds. Don spent in the area of $1.5 million on the nomination fight. He came in second but lost handily to Lujan. Wiviott will be co-hosting a Santa Fe fund-raising reception to benefit Lujan Thursday night. Don's spouse, Kelly, nominated by the Alligators for NM wife of the year for letting Don dip so deeply into the family fortune, will also be on hand. Click on the image for more.

JEFF AND TOM

A Bingaman insider moved to strike down the notion blogged here Tuesday that US Rep and Dem Senate nominee Tom Udall consulted with Bingaman before voting against the $700 billion bailout. Meantime, Bingaman told radio reporters he would have voted for the bailout if he were a House member. But would he have voted for it if he was a House member up for re-election in just a month? If Udall did ask Bingaman for political advice, it's hard to imagine Jeff telling him to vote for the controversial measure. Bingaman hasn't won five Senate terms with a broken hearing aid.

Udall needed an issue to show independents and conservative Dems that he could break from the liberal leadership of his party. He got it in the bailout package. Can Udall (and Pearce) now vote for a different bailout package? It could pose a risk, but much will depend on how united the Congress is in their new approach.

VAMOS A VOTAR POR OBAMA

Now we take you to the far end of the campaign trail, to Taos County, where the New Mexican political music tradition makes its way into yet another century. Take it away......




THE BOTTOM LINES


Elisa Montoya of NM is serving as National Director of Latino Outreach for the Obama campaign. Elisa is a '93 St. Michaels's High grad from Santa Fe, and a grad of USC Law School. She worked on Capitol Hill for Senate Majority Leader Reid and for Colorado Senator Ken Salazar. Stephanie Valencia of Las Cruces is Obama's National Deputy Latino Vote Director. Before coming to the campaign, she was press secretary to Sen. Salazar.

We haven't heard how that $10,000 a person dinner held by former NM Attorney General Paul Bardacke with Caroline Kennedy as the guest went. The daughter of JFK kept her Santa Fe visit for Obama low-key, but did meet with about 175 at a City Different restaurant. That seemed to keep happy those who were complaining that they could not afford to see her.

Just looked at the recent post about State Sen. Lee Rawson again. I called him the minority leader, but he is the minority whip. That's on top of screwing up the registration numbers in his district. That was a rough blogging streak...

Reader Matt Hemmendinger asked that we plug his Obama event. Here it is: "Art for Change will be held at 8:00 pm at the Orpheum Art Space, 500 2nd St. SW, in downtown Albuquerque. People attending the event are asked to donate $10 to the Campaign for Change and the event is open to the public"...And a Republican reader wanted us to point to this McCain page where there is a form to fill out to become a NM Election Day volunteer.

This is the home of New Mexico politics. Help us cover Campaign '08. E-mail your news and comments.

(c)NM POLITICS WITH JOE MONAHAN 2008
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Tuesday, September 30, 2008

Bailout Has Steve & Tom In Lip Lock, But Wannabe Congressmen Play It Low-Key, Plus: US Attorney Scandal Explodes Anew; Indictments? And: Job For Bill 

Udall & Pearce
The people speak. Tom Udall and Steve Pearce get the message loud and clear, but every other NM congressional contender seemed to go tone deaf, perhaps losing a huge opportunity on what could be the turnaround issue of Campaign 2008.

With phone calls, e-mail and polls running overwhelmingly against the $700 billion Wall Street bailout, one of the oddest alliances was born. Pearce, the hard-core conservative US Rep from the south, and Tom Udall, lifetime liberal and US House member from the north, both hoping to become the state's next US Senator, found themselves forced into a political embrace. Both damned the bailout, effectively removing any political advantage either has with the issue in the final five weeks of their campaign. That works best for Tom who leads and does not need any game-changers in this battle.

But what of the others who aim to serve in the halls of Congress, especially southern NM GOP hopeful Ed Tinsley and ABQ GOP US House contender Darren White? Where were they? Well, they were hard to find. But if they had been serving in the US House Monday they would have voted for the bailout, along with outgoing ABQ GOP US Congresswoman Heather Wilson. This, in the face of a populist wildfire that would seem tailor made for a fiscal conservative. But like Wilson, Tinsley and White are tied to the Bush bone. And therein lies their problem. They are getting clocked in the polls for that association, but have done little to lose it. Did they pass on a golden opportunity to prove to voters that they are their own men? We'll know soon enough.

As for southern Dem House hopeful Harry Teague and ABQ Dem contender Martin Heinrich, the stakes were much lower for them. The economic crisis is already strengthening their polling numbers. They don't need to prove anything other than that they are opposed to the current regime in Washington and promise change. Still, with the nation facing a severe challenge, observers wondered where was the strong leadership among those who hope to represent NM in Washington? Former ABQ Mayor Jim Baca had a pragmatic, if somewhat disillusioning answer. "The first job of these candidates is to win, then they can lead."

PEARCE AND UDALL

Are Pearce and Udall opportunists of the highest order, casting votes based on politics and not the good of the nation? Pearce's conservative and free market credentials are well-established and he announced his opposition days ago. Udall, who Hill Rats said consulted with Dem US Sen. Jeff Bingaman before voting no, had indicated he would vote for the bail-out if it had significant changes. But it did not meet his standard.

Udall and Pearce are both 60. They have seen a lot in their lives and are not prone to panic. Their votes against the current bailout plan can allow cooler heads to prevail and insure the voice of the average voter is heard. Stock prices may take a hit, but it is not the job of the United States government to determine the value of our stock holdings. Its primary task is to nurture and regulate a free market, capitalistic system. Now, that may be a system in need of major repair or one that some may even want to discard, but the votes of Pearce and Udall put them on the side of repairing the economy, not undermining the fundamental principles the nation is organized around.

To be sure, their votes were good short-term politics, but they were also, we believe, cast with the long-term interests of the nation in mind. Their votes won't win them kudos in the editorial pages of the mainstream media or in the salons of Washington and New York where they snicker at the notion of the "little guy" having a say in economic policy. They may even be blamed for causing economic pain. But pain, loss and recovery are as much of a part of an economy as they are of individual life. Udall and Pearce have the maturity to recognize that. It will serve New Mexico well in the United States Senate.

IT'S BACK: US ATTORNEY SCANDAL


Could you imagine if Heather Wilson was the GOP US Senate nominee today? We ask that in light of the new explosion in the US attorney scandal that again pounds away at the role of Wilson and other top New Mexican Republicans. The news being that the Justice Department has appointed a prosecutor to look into the firing of NM US Attorney David Iglesias. Wilson and Senator Domenici complained about the lack of prosecution of voter fraud cases which led to the firing of Iglesias. The congressional duo also made questionable phone calls to Iglesias inquiring about the status of a federal investigation into former Dem State Senator Manny Aragon and the Metro Court corruption case.

On Monday Justice released a lengthy report on the firings of Iglesias and other US attorneys. New information revealed includes the role of NM lawyer-lobbyist and former NM GOP national committeeman Mickey Barnett. That's covered by Talking Points Memo. The AP has this report. There's this from the Washington Post and then there is the Justice report itself. Chapter 6 is all about NM. You could start a cottage industry tracking this complex and important story.

WHITE'S ROLE

White & Heinrich
Wilson and Domenici could be trailed by the special prosecutor even when they leave office at the end of the year. We'll see. But for right now, ABQ GOP congressional candidate Darren White has the most to lose. White's role in the Iglesias scandal was also covered in Monday's report. The AP:

Darren White, whose name turned up Monday in a U.S. Justice Department report on the dismissal of federal prosecutors, said his involvement with former U.S. Attorney David Iglesias was limited on voter fraud cases. "I don't think I ever talked to David," about potential voter fraud, White said. "I just sent him a letter.

But Democrat Martin Heinrich, looking as strong as any Dem ever has in their chances to take the seat, slashed away:

This scandal clearly demonstrates Darren White is anything but an independent voice for New Mexico and the voters of he voters of central New Mexico will see him for the partisan hack that he is.

The only break the R's received on this story is that it came amid a crushing news load brought about by the economic crisis, but it still made for plenty of TV news reports.

Will anyone be indicted for the dismissal of Iglesias? The thought had to send shivers through the bones of those in the NM GOP hierarchy and those involved on Capitol Hill.


BILL'S OUTLOOK

We must look like an employment agency for Big Bill, passing along the latest speculation on what job he might end, up with, if any, in an Obama administration. But the guessing game is so fun, who can resist? The latest job for the NM Guv? How about head of the World Bank? The spin on this one says John Kerry looks strong for Secretary of State under Obama and that the World Bank slot would keep Richardson on the international stage with a powerful post. But what about having enough financial experience? Well, that is a little detail, isn't it? But we're told the job doesn't require Senate confirmation so there wouldn't be too many pesky questions. Obama does have one question right now for Bill: "How am I doing in New Mexico and are you going to deliver Election Day?"


THE BOTTOM LINES

We reversed the registration numbers for State Senator Lee Rawson's district when blogging his race Monday. The district has more Dems than R's and the correct numbers are now posted.


E-mail your news, comments and other thoughts.

(c)NM POLITICS WITH JOE MONAHAN 2008
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Monday, September 29, 2008

Bailout Defeated In US House; Senate Contenders Steve Pearce And Tom Udall Vote No; Heather Wilson Votes Yes 

Democrat Tom Udall Joined Republican Steve Pearce in voting against the $700 billion bailout plan that was defeated by the US House today.

Pearce said: 

New Mexico taxpayers were not protected under this legislation. I strongly disapprove of putting taxpayers on the hook in order to bailout the Wall Street firms that got us in to this crisis. Those who made risky decisions should own up to them. We still need solutions. This bill was not our only option. We now need to rewrite the bill to incorporate real taxpayer protections...

Udall released this statement:

I believe we must take action to protect middle class families and to make our economy produce jobs again. But I cannot vote for a Wall Street bailout that does not solve the underlying problems with our economy. I will continue working with my colleagues to reform America's financial markets, so Wall Street is not allowed to make the same mistakes over and over again.

Pearce had earlier voiced his opposition. Udall had earlier said he was supportive of a bailout package if it had significant changes.

Wilson said:

I felt it was important for Congress to act to stabilize our financial markets. Today’s bill was a “work out” not a “bail out” and had protections for taxpayers and homeowners. The bill would have given needed liquidity to the financial industry and let taxpayers share in the profits as mortgage markets recover.


(c)NM POLITICS WITH JOE MONAHAN 2008
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Bailout Politics Shaping Campaigns, Plus: The Case Of The Missing Miller, Also: Lee Rawson's Outlook, And: Death Calls For ABQ Leader Vince Griego 

Pete in the 70's
NM GOP Senator Pete Domenici rushed last night to put a positive spin on the $700 billion financial bailout plan, calling the media directly to help shape the story. But state Republicans remained nervous over the unprecedented proposal, worriedly assessing public opinion polls that are firmly against the bailout. If at least 55 percent of the general public is against it, the opposition among conservatives probably approaches 80 percent. Since the bailout story broke Dems have made steady gains, with polls showing Obama starting to move above the magic 50 percent level in many of them. Here in NM ABQ Dem congressional hopeful Martin Heinrich came with a survey showing him leading Republican Darren White by six points--48 percent to 42 percent--and there were not many voices heard disagreeing. The poll was taken Monday and Tuesday of last week, just as hard-nuclear TV spots began going up from both White and Heinrich.

White released a poll last year showing him trouncing Heinrich, but there have been no numbers from the White camp in recent months. This is Heinrich's second poll showing him ahead. In July he said he had it by three points--47 percent to 44 percent. We also have a SurveyUSA automatic phone poll from earlier this month showing Heinrich carrying the day 51 to 46. Other independent polling we've seen confirms Heinrich's lead, although with the margin of errors in all the surveys, it's difficult to see by how much.

White, who is trying to mimic outgoing ABQ GOP Congresswoman Heather Wilson by dubbing himself an "independent" voice for the district, not a dyed-in-the-wool Republican, had a chance to prove the point by splitting with the White House on the bailout. But he didn't. Neither did southern GOP hopeful Ed Tinsley. Both campaigns probably saw such a position as too high-risk. In NM's D.C. delegation only GOP US Senate candidate Steve Pearce said he was against the bailout, but he can change his mind now that a bill with fresh provisions has been drafted. But why should he? He seems to be behind Dem Tom Udall by double-digits.

White's supporters say he will close hard in the final 10 days, as GOP candidates usually do. But October is looming and his campaign, say the polls, is stalled, hardly the game plan the R's intended.

Obama is now on cruise control in Bernalillo County with current polling showing he will easily surpass Kerry's 10,000 victory margin here two years ago. If Barack makes it 20,000, the R's are going to be in a world of hurt. The torment for them is that there seems very little they can do about it.

PETE'S ADIOS

Domenici doesn't have to worry about facing voters over the bailout plan or any other plan. He gave a Senate farewell speech over the weekend as he prepares to leave at year's end. Domenici's 36 year run in the Senate began in January of 1973. My Hill Rats say his best terms were the two in the middle, from 1979 through 1990. His worst was his last, under the current President Bush. His staunch support of the bailout may or not be the right call, but it will be history giving the verdict, not the voters.

The bailout is such a jarring change to American political philosophy that some observers are saying any Republican who votes for it this week can forget about being nominated for President by the GOP in 2012.

IS MY AMERICA GONE?

You've been hearing that question a lot lately. So has author columnist Peggy Noonan. She writes like Audrey Hepburn dressed.

MILLER MISSING


KOAT-TV apparently needs some firm rules on who is and who isn't eligible to take part in their political debates. Channel 7 says it has not invited northern Independent congressional candidate Carol Miller to an October 19 6 p.m. face-off because, the station's news director says: "The other candidates lived through the primary. They have had exposure." Does that mean a candidate has to take part in a primary in order to be eligible to be invited to debate?

Independents don't usually have primary elections. In Miller's case, she gathered 11,000 signatures to get on the ballot. Democrat Ben Ray Lujan and Republican Dan East have been invited to the debate which is also being sponsored by the ABQ Journal.

Miller is well-known for her 1997 performance as a Green Party candidate in the northern district when she garnered 17 percent of the vote in a special congressional election. The exclusion of Miller, who is an obviously serious candidate, has her supporters wondering if the station is motivated by money. The D's and R's are buying millions of TV time on the station. Independent candidates are not.

The money theory may be a bit conspiratorial, but KOAT should be sensitive to it. In recent years it has conducted numerous debates but shunted most of them to the Sunday afternoon "ghetto" hours. That has prompted charges that the station is unwilling to give up prime time for debates because of financial considerations.

At least this debate is in borderline prime time coming at 6 p.m. But in excluding Miller the station is misfiring. A candidate who collects 11,000 signatures has proven her mettle. Her viewpoint has support in the marketplace. KOAT would lose nothing by inviting her, and just might enhance its "commitment" to the 2008 election.

RAWSON'S OUTLOOK
Sen. Rawson
Insiders seem to think that Las Cruces area State Senator and Minority Leader Lee Rawson should be able to prevail in his re-election bid, despite what seems to be a spirited Dem challenge from former real estate broker and environmentalist Stephen Fischmann. Rawson, 53, took a hit over the weekend when it was reported he sponsored a capital outlay bill to build a road that was outside of his legislative district, but provides access to commercial property owned by Rawson and his family. Rawson's district is 42 percent Dem, 36 percent R and 19 percent Independent. The district likes Rawson, but in this topsy-turvy year any incumbent has to be careful. Angry voters can be unpredictable.

BLOCKING BLOCK

Readers have been peppering us with the latest developments in the saga of Dem Jerome Block, Jr., who is seeking the northern seat on the Public Regulation Commission (PRC). The latest is how he lied about how he spent some of the public funds he received for the campaign. But there is no Republican running so it is up to the Green Party candidate Rick Lass to make the case against Block. Governor Richardson is reluctant to interfere. He says he is concerned about Block's candidacy, but isn't calling on him to get out--at least not in public. Jerome, son of a former PRC commissioner, vows to stay in the race. Will voters turn to Lass? They may if they find out about him in time.

WEH'S TAKE

In Friday's blog describing the insider info on the departure under fire of Bernalillo County GOP Chair Fernando C de Baca, we noted that NM GOP Chair Allen Weh, in negotiating C de Baca's departure, rejected making a statement of support for C de Baca's county replacement. Weh blogs in to clarify:

...It was said I “rejected the support of the new county chairman.” I intended that any final statement (about C de Baca) be strictly limited to recognizing the service of the outgoing county chairman...That shouldn’t be construed as “not supporting” the new county chairman... I called Chairman Ryan Cangiolosi shortly after this was resolved, congratulated him, and plan to meet with him shortly...

VINCE GRIEGO

Vince Griego could be a disarming and very direct politician. I'll never forget the ABQ Election Night when Vince called in to KANW
89.1 FM to talk about his narrow city council win over Dede Feldman. Among those on the panel was former city councilor and now city public safety honcho Pete Dinelli. Pete offered his congratulations and told how he had always supported Vince. The councilor quickly replied: "I appreciate that Pete, but I saw you in my district going door-to-door for Dede." The panel exploded in raucous laughter and Dinelli, as busted as you can be, could have crawled under the table. We kid him about it to this day.

Griego, who died Sunday at 68, took the same direct approach to his opposition to the Montano Bridge. For years he tangled mightily with Mayor Chavez over the project which would run through the North Valley neighborhoods he represented. Vince lost that heated battle, but he didn't lose many friends over it. The Mayor remained fond of the ABQ native. He mourned him last night as a "gentleman," which he rightly said is one of the highest compliments you can pay anyone involved in today's often bitterly partisan public life.

Griego, who was elected in 1978 and served until 2003, had a blue-collar heritage and was retired from Bernalillo County. What a hoot for him that he became the glue that often kept the nine member council on track. He served as council president at least five times. Today the room where the body meets bears the name: "Vince Griego Council Chambers."

We last saw Vince over a year ago at an ABQ restaurant enjoying enchiladas with his family. We joked about the current turmoil on the council--isn't there always some?--and I told him they could use him back there. "No thanks, I've done my share," he quipped.

No one will argue that.

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(c)NM POLITICS WITH JOE MONAHAN 2008
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