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Friday, December 04, 2009

No Ace In Hole For Indian Casinos; Cash Flow Crunch, Plus: NM Cities In Eye Of Money Storm 

New Mexico's gambling tribes are taking their first major financial hits since they came on the scene in force in the late 90's. We wouldn't be surprised to see one or two of them shutter their doors in the years ahead.

Pojoaque Pueblo's Buffalo Thunder Resort can't make payments on their bond debt and the same for the Mescalero Apache casino near Ruidoso. We took a look at the "net win" of the gambling tribes for the quarter ended September 30 of this year and compared it to the the September quarter in 2008. Net win is not the profit of the casino, but the amount bet on slot machines minus the amount paid out in cash and regulatory fees.

You can see why Isleta Pueblo laid off hundreds of employees at its resort south of ABQ this year. The net win on their slots has plummeted 15 percent over the past year, from $26,206,000 in last year's third quarter to $22,264,000 in this year's September quarter.

In order to survive, Isleta will rebrand itself as a Hard Rock Casino and Resort, a natinal chain that will now have a major financial role at Isleta.

The big boy on the block--Sandia Pueblo--has taken a 4 percent hit in slot revenue in the past year, going from $41,109,000 to $40,284,902. They are still the state's #1 Indian casino, but the growth is over.

The casino run by Santa Ana Pueblo near Bernalillo is also experiencing the new economic reality. The net win there plunged over 8 percent in the September quarter compared to last year, going from $18,792,000 to $17,221,000.

We did a little more figuring and compared the overall net win at all of New Mexico's Indian casinos year over year. We excluded the new Navajo Nation casino because it was not operating last year. The total net win for the September '08 quarter was $176,777,000 and for the '09 quarter it was down to $167 million. That's a decline of about 5.5 percent.

In the years ahead, the tribes will be looking to pay off debt from their expansions and holding on to the customers they have. Even a turn in the economy may not return them to their heyday. New social attitudes toward spending that seem to be rising out of this recession could permanently damper their growth.

THE SANTA FE SLUMP

They can't keep up with
the decline in tax revenue in Santa Fe, where tourism has been absolutely pounded by the Great Recession and government jobs are not falling from trees anymore. One month it looks as though they are pulling out, then comes another shoe dropping.

With a March
mayoral election looming, one wonders if the campaign will address the long-term economic needs of the City Different. Or are we going to hear that all we have to do is hang on and things will be back the way they were?

They won't.

The once in a lifetime credit bubble made possible all those tourist trips on high limit credit cards, many of the outlandishly priced home sales as well as the bubble in the art world.

Santa Fe is one of the nation's great small cities and can remain so, but it urgently needs to restructure its government and redefine its approach to tourism for the new era.

Sounds like a job for a mayor.

A DEEPER HOLE

New money projections from Santa Fe show the hole for the budget year that starts July 1, 2010 growing deeper. The Legislative Finance Committee estimate is now a $500 to $600 million shortfall. Then there's the $137 million the Legislature still has to come up with to balance the budget for the year we are now in and which ends June 30. They solved much of that issue last session, but not all of it. The projected shortfall of $500 million for next year includes the absence of $300 million in federal stimulus money. Will the deficit projection grow even more? That doesn't seem far-fetched.

RIO RANCHO PAINS

And it's no party in Rio Rancho either. A 30 year run of unbridled growth is done. Tax collections have hit the skids and like Santa Fe, it seems time to take a new look at how the city provides services. There's also a mayoral election in Rio Rancho in March. Let the debate begin.

Bringing it home to ABQ, here's an idea for Mayor Berry. Up in Denver, the mayor there asked for voluntary retirements to cut the city budget. Quite a few accepted and it meant fewer workers lost their jobs.

Hey, we're here to help.

Thanks for tuning in this week.

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(c)NM POLITICS WITH JOE MONAHAN 2009
Not for reproduction without permission of the author

Thursday, December 03, 2009

Blame It On Jay: Low Leno Ratings Hit Local News, Plus: Reporting the Econ Story; Who's On Top? Also: Axe Falls On Politicals & The Quote Of The Day 

Don't blame it all on Jay Leno, but the sacking Wednesday of KOB-TV news director Jamie Ioos comes only days after the November ratings hit the streets showing the NBC affiliate's flagship 10 p.m. newscast skidding into third place. November was Leno's first full month on the air with his new 9 p.m. show which is the lead in for newscasts coast-to-coast on NBC stations like KOB. Jay is not faring well and several industry insiders here tell us the weak lead in is hurting local NBC news broadcasts and KOB's is one of them. But a KOB insider says Leno was not the only reason for ousting the news chief:

Management was unhappy with direction of newsroom and is looking for a more aggressive approach with more breaking news and more cut-ins.

Ioos, a 20 year TV news veteran, took the helm at KOB-TV in July 2008. We don't think she'll be watching any Jay Leno shows as she ponders her next move.

Now to those 10 p.m news ratings. CBS Affiliate KRQE-TV holds down the top spot again at 10 p.m. and by a big margin. It scored a 9.3 rating compared to ABC affiliate KOAT-TV's 6.6. KOB-TV which has fought for second place the past several cycles fell to a 4.9. (A 9.3 rating means 9.3 percent of homes in the viewing area that own televisions were tuned to KRQE.)

While execs at ABC and CBS were hoping NBC's decision to drop dramas and go with Leno would drive viewers to them, it's not that simple. The audience is drifting away from NBC alright, but many of them are going to their DVR's, not the rival stations.

THE TV BEAT

All three major ABQ stations have trimmed their sails in recent years, cutting employees and hiring what are known as "one man bands." That's a reporter who shoots video and writes the story, eliminating the need for a cameraman.

Advertising is slow, but apparently enough to avoid more layoffs. The stations make a lot of money during big election years, so they are holding on for 2010. The Governor's race as well as two of the three congressional races will be the large advertisers. The stations are already getting some coin from GOP Guv candidate Doug Turner who came with a very early TV buy last month.

NAILING THE STORY

And while we're on the TV beat, how about some straight shooting news writing on the wicked economic downturn in New Mexico? You won't find much in the printed, dead-tree press, but TV news is rising to the occasion. A recent sample:

Richard Berry takes over as mayor in the worst economic crisis since the Great Depression. All the earlier talk about New Mexico avoiding the worst of the recession seems to have evaporated along with thousands of jobs and hundreds of shut-down businesses.

That's the truth that hits you right between the eyes, some good old fashioned journalism laden with the drama and passion the big economic story deserves.

All three ABQ TV stations have excelled in their economic coverage, showing the struggles of everyday New Mexicans, providing advice and not shying away from reality. For example, KOAT has been running special "Project Economy" features for months.

In contrast, the diffidence of the press--in the papers and on-line--to the human dimensions of what is happening here (with a few notable exceptions--mainly the New Mexican) has been startling. Maybe if the press would stop bitching about blogs and how journalism is allegedly going away and instead gave us some real economic journalism, they might keep some of the eyeballs they're losing. Meanwhile, to see what's happening on the economy front with your own eyeballs, tune in to local TV news, or, we humbly assert, to this little ol' blog.

MORE AXES FALL


The inevitable has begun, but it's still kind of historic to see any state worker actually let go because of financial reasons. Big Bill axed 59 political employees Wednesday as the state comes to grips with an immense budget deficit. One of my insiders says six of them are at NM Expo at the state fairgrounds. (The New Mex has another that is not without controversy).They and the other 52 are out as of January 8. The Guv's office says letting the 59 go, creating a total of 106 vacant "exempt" positions will save about $8.3 million a year. He has been widely criticized for packing the state payroll with politicals and now the day of reckoning has come. (Don't you know the Guv rues not being in that Commerce Secretary position in D.C. that he lost?)

What stands out here is that they axe 59, saving six months in salaries, but it looks like a grain of sand. The deficit for this year and next is in the hundreds of millions--and probably growing as we speak. Hold on state employees, it's going to be a bumpy ride.

HYPE OVER HP?


Big Bill cut the ribbon on the Hewlett-Packard Rio Rancho customer service center Wednesday, saying he considered it the "most significant economic development achievement" of his time in office. Not to dump on call center jobs, but this is what passes as Richardson's economic legacy? Boy, that won't take much space in the history books.

HP is a fine company, the jobs are welcome and they are wished continued success here and elsewhere. But it will take years for taxpayers to recoup the millions and millions in cash and tax incentives spent to lure the company here. HP says "a majority" of the jobs will pay over $40,000 a year. In other words, half of them probably won't. And that's a far cry from the high-paying jobs we got with Intel and other tech companies. But in this new era, a governor terms call center jobs the cat's meow.

New Mexico's next governor will no doubt have their hands full attracting jobs, but if Big Bill is saying this is his premier economic achievement, the bar has been set pretty low.

STOCK WATCH


Not all stocks are on the comeback trail in the recent surge on Wall Street. First Community Bank, with a significant presence here, has a stock price that is falling off the cliff. Shares in the troubled bank--besieged by commercial loan issues--were trading this week for a measly 44 cents a share. The stock traded for as much as $20 a share in early 2007.

Some locals appear to be taking some big hits from this decline. Leonard Delayo, Jr., a former ABQ School Board president and a member of the First State board, bought $50,000 worth of the company stock at $6.69 a share in June of '08. Those shares are now worth $3300.

Bank President Michael Stanford purchased 40,700 shares for $302,808 at the same time as Delayo. At this week's price Stanford's investment is now valued at about $18,000, a jolting loss of some 94 percent.

The bank's hard times is not good news for dozens of organizations in ABQ that have benefited from the bank's philanthropy, which we have to say is pretty stand-out stuff. The problem is all those bank loans that are becoming charity cases as the Great Recession rolls on.


QUOTE OF THE DAY

T
ake our advice: Don't get in the way of Allen Weh. First the GOP Guv nominee came with this quote back in July:

When I get to Santa Fe, I’m going to take a baseball bat, and we’re going to clean that place out.

Now the 67 year old retired Marine colonel and former NM GOP party chairman comes with round two:

There is not a better job than commanding an infantry, because you get to go shoot things.

Baseball bats, shooting things and then there was the recent news that Weh's campaign bus was completely destroyed in a fire at its storage site.

So if you see a guy in a rented Volkswagen Beetle Bus speeding past you on the freeway, holding a baseball hat in one hand, a shotgun in another and promising to clean up Santa Fe, don't be alarmed. You're not in the Twilight Zone. It's just another New Mexico political campaign.


This is the home of New Mexico politics. Email your news and comments. Interested in advertising here? Drop us a line.

(c)NM POLITICS WITH JOE MONAHAN 2009
Not for reproduction without permission of the author

Wednesday, December 02, 2009

Opening Night Of Berry Era: R's Celebrate, But Cash & Crime Problems Don't Pause, Plus: Di's Balancing Act; How Much Bill Is Enough? And: UNM Antics 

Republicans finally had something to celebrate last night and they took advantage. A large crowd of celebrants--mainly R's--gathered at the downtown ABQ Convention Center to watch Richard "RJ" Berry, the first ABQ GOP mayor in nearly a quarter of a century, take the oath of office and to hope that he can help them find their way out of the political wilderness.

"It was like the Lincoln Day Dinner times ten," joked one of our Alligators on the scene.


Former US Reps Pearce and Wilson were there and so were three of the four GOP candidates for governor--Weh, Arnold-Jones and Turner.

The talk was of how much of the fortunes of the smallish GOP are now tied to Berry who becomes an instant statewide political figure by virtue of being leader of the state's major city in the state's major media market.

"What he does is going to reflect on the party as a whole. He will be the symbol. If he fails, it is likely the party will fail in its comeback," analyzed one veteran Republican with long party experience.

It's a good point. Already acolytes of likely Dem Guv nominee Diane Denish are blasting Berry behind the scenes for not putting an end to government double dipping, a policy widely condemned by R's in the Legislature where Berry served before becoming Mayor. His constituent service director and finance department head are getting government pensions plus new and comfy government salaries. And we're informed there are more.

You can easily see how Berry's policies could be used for or against the eventual 2010 GOP Guv nominee.

Unfortunately for Berry, the first public division in his administration comes not from the Democrats, but from three Republican city councilors who are determined to vote against Berry's selection of Democrat David Campbell as the city's chief administrative officer.

Some R's are telling us they want to see Berry be more forceful and that turning around at least two of the three R councilors on Campbell would be a show of his strength. Easier said than done, of course. But the mayor's honeymoon could come to a messy end if the council's public hearing on Campbell breaks down into acrimony. Even minus a messy fight, an 8 to 1 approval carries a solid message of strength and power to the public while a 6 to 3 says the opposite.

YOU OWN IT, RJ

Our Alligators at the convention center say there was a band playing in the background as Berry stood at the front of a long reception line and received congrats. Few danced to the beat, which fits the tenor of the time--there's not a whole lot to dance about.

The new mayor reminded us of that when he said the budget shortfall for the current budget year now appears to be in the $14 million to $24 million area, not the $12 million former Mayor Marty's minions had it at.

That again raised the specter of layoffs or furloughs at City Hall which in turn is really going to make all those city employees go out and spend a bunch of Christmas cash. Not.

Berry told the press that he has already saved $500,000 from cutting salaries and positions, but the press has not yet pressed for details. Not that we don't trust such boasts. It's just that we don't trust such boasts until they are proven.

If he is saving $500,000 off the bat he may have missed an opportunity to brand his administration (and his GOP) as fiscally conservative and aggressive in facing the budget crisis. But one supposes with this economy, there will be plenty of opportunities for Berry to demonstrate his cost-cutting credentials.

So far, the record is mixed on that, as seen in the aforementioned sanctioning of double dipping and the reluctance (or caution) in announcing the elimination of obvious political patronage positions. But we're not going to crash this honeymoon and will wait to hear more from the new mayor before declaring the champagne too warm to drink.

And he deserves some breathing room. On the night of his swearing-in, ABQ was shocked as TV news led off not with Berry's ascension, but the apparent murder of a nine to ten month old baby girl in the city's NE Heights. Ex-Mayor Chavez said the part of the job he will miss the least is the daily crime briefing. One suspects Mayor Berry will come to commiserate with that sentiment.

For most Duke City denizens, whether the mayor is a D or an R matters little. They just want the city to make progress. Even though last night's festivities naturally attracted many Republicans, in the end Berry will be judged not on how he builds a political party, but how he builds an even better city. In that endeavor, he and his wife Maria have the best wishes of all.

SARAH MANIA

Media estimates said 1,000 to 1,500 turned out in Roswell last night to get a look at political phenom Sarah Palin and have her sign her name to their freshly bought copies of "Going Rogue." That was a heck of a turnout, considering the snowy weather down there. But then she drew about 10,000 when she appeared in Roswell as the 2008 VP candidate. No wonder she sidestepped ABQ. She would be challenged to get a thousand book buyers in this more moderate region.

DI'S BALANCING ACT

Di in D.C. this week at the Democratic Governor's Association tells the political press, including the Politico:

I’m a different kind of leader, and I think it’s well established in New Mexico that my style is distinctly different than Governor Richardson’s...I’ll be running on my own record, I want to be clear about that… I don’t think I have to say I’m going to be different than Bill Richardson. I am different than Bill Richardson.

And we told Politico:

She’s a plain, low-key candidate, while Richardson is much more buoyant and animated,” said New Mexico political analyst Joe Monahan. “She’s the direct opposite of him. After eight years of Richardson, she may sell well when the electorate is looking for a more low-key personality.”

The National Journal's "Hotline" also interviewed the NM LG.

Asked why she wants to be governor in a time when chief executives of nearly every state in the country are under fire with difficult budgets, Denish said now is the time to rise up and be a leader.

MORE ON THE DI DANCE


How many degrees of separation will there be between Big Bill and Light Guv Diane Denish by the time the 2010 Guv race is in full swing? For months, she's been laying the groundwork to distance herself from Bill's dark side--the ethics messes--but not so much on other issues. He remains relatively popular among the nominating wing of the Democratic Party and Di, running unopposed for the nod, doesn't need to stir the nest. But as the campaign goes on, pollster Brian Sanderoff, among others, thinks Di will gradually assert more independence as R's continue their mantra of "The Richardson/Denish Administration."

But don't forget that Richardson, despite a rough going of late, is not an extremely unpopular governor. His approval rating hovers around 50 percent. If that number holds up, the R's could get sidetracked if they make the campaign too much about him.

TRACKING BILL

And then there is the continued chatter--a bit louder since Big Bill was on the exclusive guest list for the President's first state dinner--that he just might get out of here before finishing his Guv term. He says not, but the Las Cruces Sun-News editorial pages are the latest to join the guessing game:

The governor has seemingly used up all the political capital he brought to Santa Fe in 2002. His last great, ambitious plan--to pass sweeping health care reform-- was shot down in flames two years ago. Now, there is nothing left but budget deficits and legislative battles to look forward to. Should he leave early, he would also give Lt. Gov. Diane Denish the advantage of running as a quasi-incumbent in 2010. Perhaps we're reading too much into all of this. But we can't help but suspect that if Obama made an offer, Richardson would jump to accept it

THE NUMBERS GAME

The state and city of Rio Rancho showered computer giant Hewlett Packard with millions of dollars in cash and tax incentives to locate a customer service center in the City of Vision, but one wonders if the projected number of employees will hit the target. A Ribbon cutting for the center is slated for today. From the Rio Rancho newspaper:

(A spokeswoman) couldn’t go into specifics on how many employees the center would have initially, but said HP is on target to have 1,350 employees by the end of 2012. She said HP is conducting business at its temporary site in Albuquerque and will move employees over to the new site into Rio Rancho.

But Rio Rancho Mayor Swisstack is quoted in the same article as saying the center will open with 600 employees.

HP is saying a majority of the jobs will pay over $40,000.

With the amount of public investment at stake, can we get the exact number of employees updated and published at least quarterly along with the average salaries? How else to measure the value of our investment?

MORE UNM ANTICS


University of New Mexico Athletic Director Paul Krebs continues to sink into quicksand. The cover-up culture exposed in the scandal over football coach Locksley continues, with the news that Krebs is paying an out-of-state PR firm $5,500 a month to provide advice. We can give some advice to Mr. Krebs that won't cost him a dime, but will help him and UNM: Tell the truth.

The athletic department is loaded with PR types. Greg Remington has been there for years. What is his purpose if he can't provide PR counsel? And former ABQ Tribune reporter Richard Stevens, now working with Remington, has seen it all and done it all when it comes to Loboland.

When, oh when, will the pain stop at UNM? And who will stop it?

This is the home of New Mexico politics. Email your news and comments.

(c)NM POLITICS WITH JOE MONAHAN 2009
Not for reproduction without permission of the author

Tuesday, December 01, 2009

Manny Moves In: Dems Tap Gonzales For Sheriff's Post; Can He Keep It? Plus: How Marty Mattered, Heinrich Plants Valley Flag And Weh's Burning Bus 

Sheriff Gonzales and wife Elaine
Republicans took the ABQ mayor's office in '09, but Democrats are hoping they will get a consolation prize in 2010--the Bernalillo County sheriff's office. They think they took a nice step in that direction Monday when the five member Bernalillo County Commission named veteran Sheriff's Captain Manuel "Manny" Gonzales to fill out the remainder of the term of Republican Darren White. White is now the city's public safety director under new GOP Mayor Richard "RJ" Berry.

Gonzales, who has a bachelors degree in management, will not be a placeholder. He is off and running for the '10 Dem nomination and a four year term of his own. The appointment will give him a head start, but there's no guarantee. Some of the 20 other applicants for the sheriff's job are now expected to get in the Dem nomination race, including ABQ police commander Conrad Candelaria who appeared to be knocked out of the running for the appointment because of controversy over his military record. Gonzales
served in the US Marine Corps and received an honorable discharge. Also preparing a run is retired APD officer Marie Miranda. We could get a half dozen or more before its over.

And Republicans are not going to throw in the towel on the office they've controlled since White took it in 2002. Retired APD officer William Kurth, who was supported for the appointment last night by the commission's two Republicans, is saying he will run for the GOP nomination. He could be joined by others.

It's not the $68,000 annual pay that attracts the bodies for this job. But you instantly become one of the best known law enforcement officials in the state and have under your command a department of 300 deputies.

Republicans have done a good job owning the law and order issue. The sheriff's office is the only elected county wide post they control. There has been no Hispanic--Democrat or Republican--elected sheriff in recent memory.

By avoiding appointing a placeholder, the commission gives Gonzales, a father of three, a chance to establish himself as the incumbent. He might even appeal to a few Republicans. GOP Commissioner Michael Wiener described Gonzales as "very well-liked and well-respected." Wiener and fellow R Commissioner Michael Brasher voted to make Manny's appointment unanimous after they cast their initial votes for Kurth.

CITY HALL SALARIES


Darren White is not going to lose any money in his new gig. In fact, his starting salary of $125,000 will be nearly double his sheriff's salary and be
one of the highest at City Hall. His predecessor in the public safety post, Pete Dinelli, pulled down $122,000 a year, but that was after years on the job. And remember, Darren also gets his own public information officer--former ABQ Journal cop reporter T.J. Wilham--at a cost of $75,000 a year.

Mayor Berry is not going to fill the chief operating officer position--at least not for now. We await word on whether he will keep the chief of staff position in the mayor's office, a post that was added by Chavez and criticized as unnecessary as was the COO post. Then there's the deputy CAO for finance (I know, the list seems endless). It's another one that is seen as redundant as you already have a Dept. of Finance director. Berry could make it go away and no one would notice. Why doesn't he?

New chief administrative officer David Campbell will start at $159,000 a year. That won't raise as many eyebrows as White's starting salary because the city charter acknowledges the CAO as the most important position in city government. (We notice Campbell is now making more than the Bernalillo County manager who recently crossed the $150,000 mark with a lot fewer employees under him than Campbell).

White's salary is a special plum in another way. He is eligible for government retirement at about 80 percent of the average of his final three years of service. If he can last those three years at $125K, he would be eligible for a retirement check of $100,000 a year.

Berry has taken a gamble on White who insiders think is either going to deliver big or crash and burn. For sure, it won't be boring.

DARREN AND MARTIN
Rep. Heinrich
There's one other angle on the White departure and the Manny Gonzales appointment we need to cover. In 2008, White lost the ABQ congressional race to Dem Martin Heinrich, but now in an indirect way White could be helping Heinrich. Here's how.

If Gonzales proves popular and takes the Democratic nomination, he should help attract Hispanic Dem voters to the polls, many of whom might stay away in an off-year election. That would help Heinrich in the Valley areas where he needs help. Republican Jon Barela is already targeting Hispanics. However, we don't think Martin will be sending any thank you notes to Darren. If his old rival is resurrected in his new job, he could someday again train his sights on Martin.

And more now on the Valley angle and Heinrich. We mentioned a few weeks ago that he planned a major initiative there. That initiative he is announcing today is a new South Valley office located near Coors and Rio Bravo SW. Heinrich will hire a new staffer for the office and send two of his downtown staffers to the new locale which will be open full-time beginning Wednesday. His office says all three of the South Valley office staff are fluent in both English and Spanish. A grand opening is planned for Dec. 12.

Heinrich says he wants to beef up his constituent service, traditionally a strong suit for the ABQ congressional representative. The Valley is a natural place to do it where many low-income residents reside and who need help navigating the federal bureaucracy. And it doesn't hurt politically, does it?

HE'S NOW THE MAN (AND MAYOR)

You can drop the "mayor-elect" after today. Richard "RJ" Berry will take the oath of office today at 6 p.m. at the ABQ Convention Center Ballroom downtown and become the city's first Republican mayor since Harry Kinney finished his last term in 1985. There will be a reception following the ceremony. The events are open to the public. Berry officially became mayor midnight Tuesday when Chavez's term expired.

MAYOR MARTY
We doubt if you will ever see Marty Chavez's name again on a New Mexico ballot. As they say, Marty gave it "the college try"
when it came to seeking higher office. His attempts at becoming Governor and US Senator were both turned back.

But his legacy in public service is secure. Like most chief executives, his last term was his weakest. But, in 1993, when he was elected to his first term at age 41, he came on strong, giving the city a new energy and vitality. In 2001, he took a second term and in 2005 he made history by scoring a third with the largest percentage of votes in history--47.28 percent in a four man field.

Much ado was made about Marty signing a last minute agreement with labor unions that gives them binding arbitration on matters other than pay, for modifying the DWI policy for the ABQ fire department, and for giving pay raises to favorite employees.

They would have you think these are mortal sins, but if you've been around any length of time you know they aren't. While unpleasant to behold, such actions are typical for most politicians headed for the exits for the final time.

It's hard to believe that any ABQ mayor would ever care about the city as much as Harry Kinney, but Chavez did. As you know, his mistakes were numerous and his hubris at times was insufferable, but history will be kind to Chavez because while he cared, he was never a caretaker.

Years from now Chavez may spend hours in his rocking chair wondering what might have been if he had been able to go beyond the mayor's office. But he won't have to wonder about his years as mayor. They mattered and so did he.

WEH CAMPAIGN ON FIRE

The GOP Guv campaign of Allen Weh is really catching fire--or at least the bus he was leasing has. His campaign reports the bus, nicknamed "Freedom1" by the retired Marine colonel, was engulfed in flames while parked at its Belen storage facility late Friday night. No one was hurt in the blaze that also destroyed several other vehicles. The bus, owned by Tom Greer, who works for the Weh campaign, was insured. But Weh was using the bus, decked out in a red, white and blue patriotic motif, as a mobile campaign headquarters and will miss "his home away from home."

Arson investigators are on the case. Be assured that the rumor that GOP Guv candidate Susana Martinez was seen in the vicinity of the bus just before it burst into flames has no foundation in reality. Maybe Janice Arnold-Jones, but definitely not Susana.

This is the home of New Mexico politics. Email your news and comments.

(c)NM POLITICS WITH JOE MONAHAN 2009
Not for reproduction without permission of the author

Monday, November 30, 2009

Topics Du Jour: Santa Fe Pork, Tax Hikes & Lost Jobs. Plus: Even More Economy Blogging, And: Picking A Sheriff; The Way It Was 

Voices are starting to be heard against any tax increases unless the Legislature cancels a huge pot of unspent pork money--or capital outlay--and uses it to reduce the immense state deficit. There's some $1.4 billion of unused pork money in Santa Fe. It's been set aside since 2003 for construction projects that were either never started or started and stalled. How much of this unused cash will legislators use to solve the budget shortfall?

Many of them don't want to give up the money because the projects help them get elected and re-elected. All 70 House members are on the ballot next year. But talk about resinstating the gross receipts tax on food and medicine to raise the hundreds of millions needed to plug the state deficit is going to look hypocritical if that pot of pork is left largely untouched.

The argument will be made that the pork represents one-time money and won't give us the recurring revenue we will need to solve our long-term revenue problems. But if the pork money was transferred to the general fund--say $600 million--major tax increases could be delayed for a year or two (The Legislature has been using some of the capital outlay to cover the deficit).

It will be of interest to hear where Senate Dem leaders John Arthur "Dr. No" Smith and Tim Jennings stand on this. Are these self-described fiscal conservatives willing to dig deeper into the pork barrel before they weigh tax hikes?

Santa Fe wants to have its pork and eat it to, but voters may be of a mind to end this giant chicharrones party. Stay tuned.

MESSAGE SENT

Along those lines, how about voters up in Raton turning down a school bond that, if passed, would have raised property taxes there? And there was also a recent no vote on a tax increase for the Santa Fe county fire department. Sounds to us like a couple of warning shots across the bow to those who think raising taxes in times like these is going to be a snap.

WHERE IT'S HITTING

Many New Mexicans--and we mean many--are somewhat, but not totally isolated from this raging recession by comfortable government jobs they have held for years. The national labs, the military bases and all the federal agencies continue to chug along. There have been some Sandia Labs layoffs and it appears employment growth is over there and at Los Alamos Labs, but not the military bases. There are hiring freezes at many local levels of government and most state workers will be furloughed for five days in the current budget year. However, the bulk of the pain remains in the private sector.

The state's jobless rate continues to soar and is now approaching 8 percent statewide (it's at 7.9). That level has been breached in the ABQ metro and now stands at a multi-decade high of 8.2 percent. (We give our customary caution that the actual rate is much higher when people who have given up looking for work are included as well as those who have settled for part-time jobs.)

Construction workers and retail employees have been especially hammered. Other jobs that also don't require a college education are also disappearing at a faster pace.

The state's lower middle class has been roiled by this deep downturn. You can see that in the long lines that form for any job fair and when TV news shows the increasing popularity of food banks.

The pain is now spreading more into the middle class, with the furloughs of state government workers. The chopping in half of the work force at Rio Rancho's Intel, the demise of Eclipse Aviation, and the closure next year of the ABQ GE plant are also direct hits on the state's private sector middle classes.

The relatively small strata of upper class professionals here have had their stock portfolios and real estate values take a major hit. The ongoing financial troubles at the New Mexico Symphony are one tell-tale symptom. Retirees are feeling the pain because many of them rely on stock dividends that have been reduced or suspended and there are steadily rising health care costs not covered by Medicare.

BOXED IN?

We seem boxed in. If housing is going to be more or less flat for the next decade and retail is going to be at best on a subdued growth curve, the jobs lost in those sectors won't be coming back. If more hi-tech is moving overseas, those jobs are also gone.

One should hesitate before throwing in the towel on the private sector's ability to generate another go-go era, or for a new bull market in oil and natural gas prices or for small businesses to eventually pick up the slack, but the challenges are steep.

The modern New Mexican economy--the one that gave us the decent paying jobs-- was built by the federal government--Sandia, Los Alamos, Kirtland and White Sands--and it remains the main driver here.

The boom in Clovis because of the renewed military presence at Cannon AFB and the small but steady growth at ABQ's Kirtand AFB as well as White Sands are bright spots on an otherwise dark landscape. Critics may call it a war economy, but someone's got to do it and New Mexico has excelled.

Would it be surprising to see policy makers start to look to that old model for the future? In other words, position the state more aggressively to win a larger share of the federal jobs pie? Given the current outlook, New Mexico as a natural home for more of the same will look increasingly attractive to the economic development crowd here.

THE NEXT SHERIFF

Who will be the next sheriff of Bernalillo County and fill out the remainder of Darren White's term? That question will be answered later today as the five member county commission meets at 5 p.m. to make a pick from a list of over 20 applicants, most of them with law enforcement experience.

White, who is becoming the city's public safety director, officially resigns today and starts work with the city tomorrow. His second, four year term runs until the end of 2010. Whoever gets the job today is eligible to run for election next year, but there's been talk of the commission looking for a "placeholder," someone who pledges to just fill out the term and not seek election.

That's the last thing the Democratic Party wants to see. With Republican White leaving, they see a realistic chance of taking back the high-profile office. Some of the Dem commissioners have been antsy about making enemies, thus the talk of a placeholder. We'll keep you posted on the action.

THE WAY IT WAS

Some memories are rekindled in thinking about today's decision from the Bernalillo County Commission to name a replacement for Sheriff White.

It's been a long time since a sheriff's term was interrupted. In fact, it was around 1975-76. Then-Sheriff Joe Wilson, a Democrat, was the subject of an extensive investigation by KKOB-AM radio news. That reporting and a grand jury probe led to a most rare event--a civil removal trial of a sitting sheriff on charges of misfeasance in office.

The trial was a sensational event of its time. We recall that the presiding judge was Rosier Sanchez, the brother of then Catholic Archbishop Robert Sanchez. We don't recall there ever being another such trial of a Bernalillo County official.

In those days we filed our reports for KZIA-AM radio from a telephone booth in the old Bernalillo County Courthouse. To send interview sound back to the station, we had to unscrew the mouthpiece of the phone and hook up what were known as "alligator clips." That's not where we got the term "Alligators" from, but in retrospect it is a bit ironic.

In any event, Wilson was found guilty at that trial, removed from office and the county commission named Tommy Richardson, then the county fire chief, to replace Wilson. Tommy had a heart condition and did not seek the office when it came up for election. Sheriff Wilson died not long after being removed from office.

KKOB--then known as just KOB--received national recognition for its investigation. And one of the radio reporters from that era--Diane Dimond--went on to bigger things as a well-known national TV reporter. Today she writes a syndicated column on crime that is carried by the ABQ Journal.

I was there and that's the way I remember it.

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(c)NM POLITICS WITH JOE MONAHAN 2009
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